
Plugged In: the energy news podcast
Coming from the heart of the Montel newsroom, Editor-in-Chief, Snjolfur Richard Sverrisson and his team of journalists explore the news headlines in the energy sector, bringing you in depth analysis of the industry’s leading stories each week.
Richard speaks to experts, analysts, regulators, and senior business leaders to the examine not just the what, but the why behind the decisions directing the markets and shaping the global transition to a green economy.
New episodes are available every Friday.
Plugged In: the energy news podcast
Get your umbrellas out
The Nordic region is set for a wet autumn if the weather forecasts are to be believed, and the front quarter contract has already fallen 15% since late July.
As well as having umbrellas and raingear at the ready, the podders discuss other key issues market participants should keep an eye on in the coming months.
Host:
- Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel.
Guests:
- Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel,
- Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel.
Hello listeners and welcome to the Montel Weekly podcast, bringing you Energy Matters in an informal setting. My name is Richard Sverrisson and I'm joined today by my colleagues Ola Vilnes, who is chief editor for the Nordic region, as well as Morten Hegna Sales and Events Director here at Montel. A warm welcome to you both.
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:Thank you.
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:Thank you.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:We're in August. It's holiday time over most of Europe, but here in the Nordic region, the market is slowly waking up after the summer recess, which normally happens here in July. I. As always, at this time of year, Nordic market participants are paying close attention to the hydrological balance and the weather forecasts for the coming weeks, months. All Olav how have these changed since earlier in the summer?
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:Yes. I would maybe like to start by turning the clock back 12 months to August last year when we had the perhaps driest and warmest summer in living memory for many people. And, uh, and of course that created a large deficit into hydrological balance. It was like, uh, uh, 20 terawatt hour below normal. Which is quite a lot. Mm. If you combine that with the carbon price impact that we had last year, the traveling of carbon prices, then that gave together a very sharp price in prices. Mm. We got average monthly spot prices of around Euro 50 in the summer. Mm. Which is the first time in since 2011. We saw such levels, uh, at the monthly average.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Yeah, sure. Absolutely. And what are they like at the moment? Were the forecast saying what? It's been a bit wetter. Hasn't it? The, our summer,
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:uh, it, it has and, and you could say it is hydrological balance. It stayed, it stayed low, well into 2019. Prices stood at about Euro forties, uh, until late May. Then we had a very rainy start to the summer. June was very wet. And we got prices, uh, crashing down to Euro 27 in June. Prices on average. Mm-hmm. Because of the wet weather, the hydrological balance was restored, and then come July. And it turned dry again. Mm-hmm. Now, at the end of July, early August, sports prices are up at, uh, around Euro 40.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:So it's been a kind of topsy-turvy ride a bit, uh, Morton, have you got
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:anything to add to this? Not in particular, but, uh, it seems now it's, uh, mostly relying on the weather and rain and, uh, participation will, uh, have a major impact on the price development now in August, of course,
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:of course, as normally is the case here, but what, what are you hearing from the market? What are, what are the experts, what are the analysts talking about? Are they sort of mainly. Bearish going forward, or have they have forecast changed a bit, or analysis changed?
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:Yeah. Yeah. When I returned from my summer holiday in ju in ju late July, it was quite bullish in the market. And as, as I told you, it had been a dry July, the hydrological balance had worsened to around minus 10 from, uh, compared normal. Uh, but since then, it has once again turned wet. Mm-hmm. And now they show it'll be very wet. For the next couple of weeks at least, and the balance is improving towards like minus five, maybe in late August. Mm-hmm. Uh, maybe can even improve or go back to normal at the end of the month. And you've seen, uh, the Q4 19 contract falling 15% since it's late July peak. Okay. There's no trading at, uh, 37 85 euro this morning. Mm-hmm. It was at 44 85 in, uh, 24th of July.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Okay. So that's just a couple of weeks ago. Yeah, just a couple
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:of weeks ago. So that's clearly a weather impact there on the, on the price fold. Mm-hmm. You have also seen a, a fold in German prices over that time, so I think there's also a continental influence.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Absolutely. So it's time to, to get the, uh, umbrellas and the Reiner out for the, for, for the second part of August. Um, what are you hearing anything here, Morton? Um, I know you've only just come back from your holidays
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:yourself, but, uh, I haven't actually heard anything from the participants in the, in details, but I think, uh. Uh, most, uh, as there have been quite, uh, significant price movements, uh, during this summer as well. And now prices are going downwards again. Uh, people also might look at, uh, the technical, uh, indicators.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Okay.
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:And if we are coming down now to degree that we had, uh, earlier on. Mm. Uh, a movement, uh, rising now coming down from the top. Mm-hmm. And, uh, towards, uh, around the 40 level on, uh, on the Q1 contract. Mm-hmm. Uh, then you might see a reaction again. Okay. Absolutely. That it's some support there.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Yeah, sure. I mean, Q1 has come off quite a bit as well. Um, hasn't it since, since the same kind of late July peak that all of was talking about here, Morton. So it's come off from around what. Yeah,
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:it's come off from around 47. Okay. Uh, and, uh, down to 41 now, uh, just in a matter of days. Okay. So
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:purely on the basis of these, these, uh, these wetter forecasts then? Yeah. Chiefly,
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:I, I think it's also important to remind us that, uh, we only have to go back two years and then we had prices at around 30 euros in Q4 spot prices.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Okay. Yeah. So
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:I think there is a level rise there as well. Caused by the carbon price increase we saw last year. Yeah, yeah. Carbon, of course, is a very important price driver. Normally when you have a euro rise, one euro rise in the carbon price, the power price can rise by around Euro oh 0.7. So, so that has definitely an impact. And of course, when you, in July, you saw carbon price is reaching up, up towards 30 euros. Yeah, yeah, of course. Yeah. Together with the weather, it has a, I think that those two are the main price drivers, uh, at the moment.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:The, the Ford prices are very much below Germany. I mean, Germany, you know, they're around 50 hovering around there. They've sort of touched above and, and fallen below, you know, and, and the Nordics bock has been, been lower than its German equivalent. I mean, what are the reasons here? Ola?
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:Everyone you talk to in the market, they, they think that it's the spread. If you look at the curve mm-hmm. It's, it's too wide. I mean, there's, there's almost a 15 euro spread between the Nordic and German frontier contract. Yeah. Which compares to, uh, I guess the spot price so far this year. Just a three or four Euro difference. Exactly. So, yeah. And there's not a big, uh, hydrological situation that sort of suggests such a big difference. So it could come down to market structure. I think many people think that in the Nordic market, there is like a, um, structural thing with a lot of. Uh, sellers, long-term sellers in the market. An over representation of them, it has to do with the renewables expansion.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Okay.
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:A lot of wind farms coming online, they have, they're forced to secure their sails many years in advance. This is through
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:The, the PPAs here exactly as you mentioned. Yeah.
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:A large rise in PPA deals, and I think that rise, you could maybe say that the PPA market have contributed to lower the, uh, long end of the Nordic power curve.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Okay. That's interesting. Yeah, very interesting. I think. Yeah. So it has, you know, all these deals that have been signed over the previous years are having an impact on, on, on prices already now. So that, that's quite an interesting development. Uh, what are, what are your thoughts here? Uh, modern.
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:Last year we had this, uh, major spread in, uh, between, uh, German and uh, Nordic power prices, uh, in late, uh, August. And, uh, that turned out to, to be reduced during the autumn. Yeah. Uh, and it had severe consequences for one chap in particular, maybe? Yes. Yes. And, uh. Quite many nice consequences for other players, of course. Who managed to stay in that position.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Yeah.
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:Yeah. And, uh, it could be that, uh, we will see this again if there will no be no drama in, uh, the continental markets, uh, like we had last fall.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Yeah.
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:And, uh, this fall if, uh, prices are moving quite normal Yeah. Then we can see Nordic power prices coming, uh, higher and reaching a lower spread between German and nor power prices. And then could be absolutely that people are taking the same position as, uh, some did the last year. Okay.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Yeah. So it's more likely that Nordic prices will rise rather than German falling, you think?
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:I think most it's a million dollar question. I mean, that's what you would earn money on if you know, if you know the answer, of
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:course. And we are just, we are just, um, journalists and, uh, and, uh, market observers really. So yeah, we are not putting any money on this. But, uh, yeah, for those out there that are, that the
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:market is probably closer to the short term, marginal cost of fuels, I mean the gas and coal. So it depends also on what you believe about the coal and gas markets going forward. It. I mean, if, if there is a, let's say the coal or the gas market turns very weak in the winter, then maybe the Nordic market is more correctly priced. No, but I think there's a general feeling in the market that is a Nordic market that is too, that is more wrong than a German market.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Okay. Yeah. Well,
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:the, and the answer is probably somewhere in between.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:But it's interesting about the structure of the Nordic market because that's also been a debate around the liquidity here, isn't it? I mean, uh, all of that, you know, we've seen, you know, Nordic forward market liquidity falling quite, quite drastically from over the last, pretty much every year over the last 12 years. I mean, what are experts saying here about, but the reasons for this is that partly the structure of the market, that there are too many sellers, not enough buyers, or that, is it that too simplistic? It
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:could be an answer. I mean, you had a lot of funds in the Nordic market in the early two thousands. First you had American companies coming in. Then you had a lot of independent traders. Much more activity, much more trading activity. Many have blamed the regulation from EU level. That is the main reason they say for, for lower liquidity, that it's more difficult now to trade, particularly if you're a small company. A lot of compliance, a lot of reporting to do, uh, makes it more expensive. The price structure can have an impact, but as we've already seen, there is a lot of price volatility. So I think that argument is probably a bit weak because if you look at the history, I mean there is quite huge swings from even between months and weeks and years. There is probably a structural thing. And then you also have some people talking about the fundamental. System, I mean, how the market is structured around the system price and the area prices. And then that is a problem for the, for the liquidity as well when it comes to financial. About red.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Absolutely. So there are a number of issues. You know, Montel has its annual events on the, on and in the Nordic market on the 2020 2nd of August. Uh, Morton, it's, it's, you know, it's the must attend conference for Nordic energy market participants and also those who want to understand more about what's, what's driving the Nordic market. And one of the main topics is this liquidity issue. Can you tell us a little bit more about how you're gonna address this
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:at the conference? Morton? And, uh, that is true. We will have a very interesting conference in two weeks. Uh, which one of them where all the topics will consist of, uh, the, uh. Challenges within financial trading. And, uh, of course there will be, uh, good discussions between, uh, players, experienced ones and, uh, the, uh, exchanges and how this market will be moving forward. Mm. So, um, we are really looking forward to, to that. And, uh, PPAs will be of course, uh, one topic. Mm-hmm. Uh, we have seen that, uh, or some means that, uh, p ps is taking away liquidity from the market. Mm-hmm. While the originators say that it is actually creating liquidity on the financial markets.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:But they would, because they're the ones driving the, the, the deals, aren't they? So they, they would see the, the positive sides of it in a sense. Morton, you, you travel all around Norway visiting, you know, Monte customers and, and energy market players in the region. I mean, what, what are their main concerns here? It's quite
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:split, uh, because, uh, we meet optimists. And, uh, people who are more of, uh, realists and may be pessimists mm-hmm. With respect to the development of the financial market. And, uh, when we talk to, to different players, they say quite the opposite, quite many of them. Mm. And we see that, uh, some are looking forward to, to a more financial market, uh, and maybe hedging towards the German market. Mm. Uh, that is, uh, something which also people are looking into. I also see that, uh. The number of participants at NASDAQ has not actually been reduced, uh, during the last year, uh, after the default as well. It has actually gained, uh, three more members. Mm. Uh, 10 more 10 went out and, uh, 13 has a right. Hmm. So that's quite interesting. So the net increase. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. And, um, and what kinds of players are they?
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Uh,
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:Johnny, they are people from Denmark. Okay. Coming into the market. Uh, we have some, uh, hedge funds coming along as well. And, uh, there are, amongst them, of course, an optimism, uh, in order to, to, to do more trading on, on
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Nordic markets. Because all of, I mean, liquidity may be falling, but it's still quite strong. I mean, it's not as if, as if it's sort of gone off a cliff, you know, it's still, you know, it's a very vibrant and, and active market still. Uh, even though we may be focusing a little bit too much on, on the drops in liquidity.
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:Yeah. So it's typical. It's been a bit, I mean, you had a very high liquidity in the Nordic, was the pri the first mover? In a way? It was larger than the German market back in the early two thousands. Now, I think the, the gravity of the trading has moved to the German market. That's the hub for Europe. That's where they trade. Mm-hmm. So you could. Some, some people say that Nordic region would just be an appendix to Germany. Like for example, France. Is it like the Eastern Europe markets? And then you could say, okay, well the Nordic just have to be content with that. Be a smaller fringe market for special interested people, people with assets there. Or well, the trading goes to the wider German market, or should Nordic region come back. I think that's, that's, that's an interesting discussion. Mm-hmm. We also had a proposal from Fulton, which was quite interesting, at a similar debate in June back in Helsinki. Where, uh, where they said that, uh, they should end the reference price. Now we have this common nor ENT price. Mm-hmm. We said use the Sweden area price instead. The Stockholm area price. That would give a better hedge for most people in the market. Mm
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:mm What's the reason for that? I mean, why, why is that a better reference price?
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:I think it was, it was better for Swedish and Finnish place. The Norwegian reactions were quite negative to that. So that's a typical,
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:so it's an internal Nordic kind of debate or, yeah, yeah. Discussion. Really? Yeah. I wonder if
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:could do anything for liquidity is hard to say. I mean, it's probably other factors that are more, even more important, but at least it's interesting. I mean the physical things as well, I mean. How do you organize the market physically to also improve it financial trading conditions? Yeah. Uh, it's also an interesting question, I guess that would be touched upon on the, on the non organic days as well.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Which, which brings me to my next question, Morton, which, what are the, I mean, uh, liquidity is one of the, the topics, but what are the other issues we'll be, we'll be discussing there? Oh,
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:we will cover quite many interesting topics, uh, the whole day. And, uh, we will look at the EU Clean energy package, uh, how it could affect, uh, the future production mix and, uh, market design and Nordics. Mm-hmm. Very interesting. Um, session before launch. Mm. Uh, we will look at the renewable energy expansion, uh, and how that affect the, uh, challenges for the TSOs. Okay. Because, uh, all these wind, power and solar will affect, uh, the structure of the, uh, the grid. Absolutely. And that is important for all the players to know more about.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:That's something that, you know, perhaps the companies that have been involved with this expansion and the continent, uh, I know there's a Danish TO speaking, so they would maybe, you know, have a lot of experience with this, this kind of, um, you know, expansion of renewables. Flowing into the grid. That, that's what brings me onto my next question. Really, Ola. You know, one of the main surprises this year for me at least being, being an outsider in this country, is this vehement opposition to wind in, in some quarters.'cause you'd think, yeah, it's, it's, you'd think it's green energy, it's kind of, it's in sparely populated, you know, areas. What, what's the big deal?
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:Yeah. It's the big deal. I think nor regions in general are quite positive to wind power as long as they, it is not in their backyard. Of course, it's the classical NIMBY problem. And, um, and what you see in is that there's been a lot of protest recently. Mm. Uh, much due to this is the first real wave of wind power developments in Norway. Okay. I mean, if you look at the hydropower developments, you had a lot of protests in the 1970s, 1980s. Now you have the wind coming up and now people say, okay, these wind wills will come on my mountain. Mm. My, my forest. Why, why do we need it? And they look at the hydro, the power balance in Norway, which shows that there is a surplus Yeah. Yeah. Is is almost all renewables. Mm. And then I think, why should we destroy our nature for exporting the power to continental Europe?
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Mm. Which will then only drive up domestic prices. Yeah. Potentially. Yeah. So that's, that's one argument
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:against it. Yeah. And then of course you have all the other people who think, okay, it's good to export power to continental Europe because it build. Bring down climate emissions, uh, or CO2 emissions across the world.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Better to export, uh, yeah, to, to electrons rather than hydrocarbons potentially. For, for some,
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:I think the opposition is most down to the nature. I mean, people don't want it near their house, homes near their, uh, cabins. Yeah. Uh, it's not so much against wind power in general. It's more, it's more a visual issue.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:And there's maybe the wildlife protection as well. Maybe they feel that it's, uh, it's, it's harmful for, for, for what? For for birds? Uh, potentially, yeah. Yeah. Is this an issue in, in
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:the area where you live, Morton? Not, uh, in particular NVE, the Nordic Energy Authority. They have, uh, made a, a huge map over Norway, uh, where they have pointed out some areas for potentially wind power on shore in Norway. Mm. And, uh, there have been, uh, a lot of discussions after that and, uh. Quite many are negative of course, but uh, also many local communities are positive because, uh, it means a lot of, uh, tax income, of course, for these local communities are having power in their backyard. Yeah, absolutely. I, as long as they don't see it, then
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:it's
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:okay.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Yeah. In behind a mountain or something. Yeah, absolutely. But yeah, that, that, that's the point, isn't it? I mean, it's increased revenues, which they can then fund social services, et cetera. Yeah. I mean, but has, has the debate got even more kind of extreme or has it got more polarized or is it, you know, how is, how is it developing? All of
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:social media is playing a part here. Of course. I mean, you, you have a Facebook group called, uh, is Stop Wind Power Plants, which is trying to recruit me every day. I get it. And, and, and
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:of course. So far unsuccessfully. Yeah. Yeah.
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:True and untrue stories are spread very fast. And for example, they, they don't like the, that the fact that there's a German company building a wind farm in central Norway is very, is not good for them. I mean, some people. Make all kind of comparisons with history to sort of be against that wind farm. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, why should we help them? I mean, is is that kind of attitude? I don't know. It gets, sometimes you get a bit polarized if you read the social media. Yeah. Okay. I don't know if that really reflects the public opinion.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Yeah. Yeah. No, that's always the case. I think. I think they should, uh, read Monte instead. Yes, exactly. Yeah. That's far more balanced than neutral. Absolutely. Have more objective, the objective view. Well, I I mean, other, other, um, topics or issues that, uh, the Nordic market will be looking at, uh, in the coming months. I mean, on the, on the, maybe on the policy side, we've seen new governments in Denmark and Finland. I mean, uh, will this, um, affect or is this something, what are the main key points that, that, that people will be looking at?
Olav Vilnes, Chief Editor Nordics, Montel:Probably much of the same. I guess the, the new Danish government that came over came that summer is, is even more ambitious on wind power. So Denmark will even face a even higher challenge of penetrating or, uh, adapting wind to his system, probably needs they need and even more interconnectors to neighboring countries to work smoothly. I mean, Finland will of course speed up their decarbonizing get rid of the coal plants, uh, by the 2030. And, uh, so, so, so there is this, uh. The same development, you go towards more renewables, more volatile renewables in the system. Mm-hmm. Which again, creates, um, more grid and more flexible demand side. Yeah, I think so. In that way it's, it is nothing particularly new this year. It's been the same. Overall trend going on for many years now. But you see it clearer now since you're approaching 2020s where much more has to be done. Yeah. Yeah. To meet stricter climate targets in by 2030.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Absolutely. Anything to add here? I mean, what do you, what do you, what do you think are the key issues? Of course, they're all being addressed to the Nordic Eng Day Morton, but, uh, apart from that, I suppose, you know, the key issues will be what ha what happens to the carbon price and if Absolutely. And,
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:uh. Brexit in that sense, uh, no deal. Brexit is the most probable, I guess. Yeah. Uh, and, uh, how that will impact the carbon market on the short term, uh, will of course impact the power prices also on short term. That will be very interesting as well. And, uh, keep
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:us all nervous for the coming weeks.
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:Yeah.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Or you know, or busy in some ways. Yeah.
Morten Hegna, Sales And Events Director, Montel:Beyond that, uh, I think the development of, uh, PPAs, uh, will play a major role in the power price development, uh, time ahead. Yeah. And the, uh, all change in, in wind power production impact of that will absolutely matter.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. Well, I think that's about all from us today, so thank you very much to Oliver Morton. It's been a pleasure having you here and having this discussion. I think the one key takeaway there for me is please make sure you attend the Nordic Energy Day if you can. Absolutely. And um, but remember to keep up to date with all our stories on Monte News and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn, and you can subscribe on iTunes and Spotify. We'll be back next week. Thank you, listeners. Goodbye.