The Brad Weisman Show

Housing in 2024 - A Look Into the Future w/ Pete Heim

January 11, 2024 Brad Weisman, Realtor
The Brad Weisman Show
Housing in 2024 - A Look Into the Future w/ Pete Heim
Show Notes Transcript Chapter Markers

Hold onto your seats as we tackle the rollercoaster of home price forecasts for 2024, ranging from the optimistic to the downright gloomy.  We'll share why we're taking some of these predictions with a grain of salt, especially after a Zillow Zestimate that seemed to be playing in a league of its own.  And as properties fly off the market, we ponder the potential twists and turns that shifting interest rates could bring as spring approaches.  Join us for a session filled with insider insights, a touch of skepticism, and a healthy dose of optimism for this years real estate future.

Discover the heartbeat of our local market, as Pete Heim joins us to unravel the story behind its impressive 7.38% appreciation rate.  If your ready to compare these local triumphs with the wider national scene, you'll have to wait until next month, when the national numbers come out! 
#peteheim #bradweisman #thebradweismanshow #realestateandyou #homes #realestateagent

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Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show (formerly known as Real Estate and YOU), where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! 🎙️ Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! 🏡🌟 #TheBradWeismanShow #RealEstateRealLife #realestateandyou

Credits - The music for my podcast was written and performed by Jeff Miller.

Speaker 2:

From real estate to real life and everything in between the Brad Wiseman show and now your host, brad Wiseman. All right, we are back for another show and I want to say thank you for watching the show in 2023. And I also want to say keep watching the show in 2024, because we have a lot of great shows coming up, a lot of great guests coming up and, of course, the first one of the first guests in January. One of them is Pete Heim. He's a repeat customer of the podcast. Yes, repeat and repeat and repeat, and Chris is going to come back at some point. Yes, he is Right, we're going to revive your son a little bit, let's do it, let's do it.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, he's got a lot to offer, he does.

Speaker 2:

He's got the energy he does. Yeah, it's awesome. So we have some updates and some also some recaps from 2023. It's a new year, man. It's a new year, we're all that.

Speaker 1:

It's unbelievable. Yeah, here we are, yeah.

Speaker 2:

January 2024. Amazing, where'd it go? It goes fast, yeah, it goes really fast. So what do you have for me? Let's get through some of the numbers. I know one of the things is we were very happy to see that we were right for once in our life. Hugo, don't let our wives hear this. Okay, we were actually right. That's right. Yeah, and I'm thinking have you ever heard your wife say you're right? No no, okay, I'm just making sure the same way. Then, pete right, never, you know, every now. And then you get the, the nod, you get the soft nod, the soft, the soft nod. Like she's thinking I'm right.

Speaker 1:

But then yeah, no, never admit, never admit it, never admit it.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, boy, it feels good to be right. It does. Just don't tell the wives that we were right, but the thing that we were right on, right A lot of, of course, Absolutely. So what? So tell them, tell the audience, what we were right on.

Speaker 1:

Okay audience, if you've been well, if you've been listening to this. For the last several months, brad and I have been talking about what we thought the appreciation rate was going to wind up in Berks County residential didn't we.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, we've been talking about it. Yeah, we've been talking about it a lot.

Speaker 1:

You know. You saw a national, a couple of boneheads said negative two and you got. You see a couple of fours and threes and ones. Well, berks County, you made it to 7.38% appreciation.

Speaker 2:

That's incredible which is, which is pretty much the range that we said it would be. Yep, we said around seven, we said seven-ish yeah seven-ish yeah. Seven-ish. Yeah, if you looked that up, that's what it is. Even 6.8 is seven-ish. 6.8 is seven-ish, you're right, yeah, and for some people, five is seven-ish, depends on who you're talking to Politicians typically they're dozy Seven. We'll just go up to seven, round it up, but yeah, so that's incredible.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, that's nuts right. Yeah, I mean the number is the average sole price. Last year this time was 264 and change. This year it's 283 and a little more change. So you can do that math. It's amazing, it's right. On the money.

Speaker 2:

And did you look at any? What was the? What did the nation come in? Yet Do we have those numbers yet?

Speaker 1:

I didn't see the nation yet.

Speaker 2:

It's probably going to be a little bit yet I'm curious to see where we, where we ended up.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

You know, based on the nation, based on actually even our state. Where did we end up at state-wise Right, you know, instead of just local, because this is our local or economy, our local.

Speaker 1:

This is our micro. Yeah, very micro, remember we talked about that. Yeah, we can't go too macro on this because I think the short points lost?

Speaker 2:

Oh, absolutely.

Speaker 1:

Absolutely On both shores, you know they're still losing.

Speaker 2:

They're still losing, yep, yep, they're still losing.

Speaker 1:

So if you take that out of the mix, you know we probably was a four to 5% appreciation. I'm guessing yeah.

Speaker 2:

For the rest, of the country I would. I would think you know we'll see where that comes in when we have those numbers. I think a one or two because of those lost areas you know, and there are some areas I mean like California, I'm sure, some areas they're really got hit really hard Florida.

Speaker 1:

Florida got hit. Yeah, they're down.

Speaker 2:

And that's also because they had a lot of new construction. So their inventory starts to catch up real quick. Yeah, See, when you're building, when you're building at the at the pace that they're building, as soon as you get a little bit of a dip in in sales, in buyers being in the market, your inventory goes straight up real quick. And then what happens is your prices come down and even the builders at that point have to lower their prices, Sure. So you know it's interesting, and that's one thing we don't have in this area is new construction. So we're relying pretty much. I mean, we have some, we have Berks homes, we have, uh, Farrino's doing some stuff here, we have Grande doing some really nice stuff, we have some good builders, but it's just not the volume that we need.

Speaker 1:

I just wrapped up a new construction in York area Awesome, dover, pa, right, yeah, and it's Berks homes, yeah, and they're, they're all. They're really great to deal with, absolutely. And we got the last lot, wow. And there was another development they were interested in last week. The whole development sold out. It's incredible, and you're not talking about 30 or 40 development, you know block development.

Speaker 2:

We just don't have inventory. No, so the thing is, lancaster County actually has more new construction also than we do.

Speaker 1:

They do Actually down that direction. There seems to be more.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, we're just more land. We're just more land too. For some reason, we are just not able to get that going Right, and I hope we can.

Speaker 1:

I hope we can. We need it, yeah, we really need it.

Speaker 2:

So I also saw that I was looking today 362 homes in the market, yeah. So you know, it really kind of has held its own a little bit and especially seasonal-wise, we didn't get a huge, huge drop in inventory. So I'm hoping, as now we're in January and as the months go by, we see that number really, you know, come up.

Speaker 1:

I agree I think that's going to get over 400 quicker than it normally does, probably the next few weeks, I'm guessing what. 230, county-wise, by the way, that's if you've got city and new construction. You're at it 230. Okay, no problem. Yeah, what about interest rates? Interest rates are down a little bit, six and a half-ish right, compared to where they were yeah. They were pushing it right.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, oh, they were in eights.

Speaker 1:

They were eights.

Speaker 2:

I'd say at one point the peak was eight and a half. Yeah, eight and a quarter, eight and a half of the peak, yeah, depending on points and things like that. But you know. So now and that was the question that Hugo had last time was was asking about you know when do you refi? You know what's that look like. You know, do you refi now? Do you wait? I know, I know he's got a little bit of a higher rate. He didn't get the highest rate though, thank goodness, but he's got a little higher rate and you know it could mean a point and a half is when it's time to go, you don't? You know, depends on what you owe and the property and things like that.

Speaker 1:

Well, anybody who bought a house in the last what year and a half or so? You got to watch, because if it gets into the fives you're going to probably want to do it. Oh, absolutely. Especially if you're going to stay.

Speaker 2:

Especially yes.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

If it dips below six. I think that's a place where maybe Hugo will be looking to maybe do that. We'll see and we can talk to him at that point.

Speaker 1:

That's right, a man of many words, I know that's right, but you know the thing about that too was. It just went right out of my head. What was it?

Speaker 2:

You know that's part of your age, you know that right.

Speaker 1:

Actually when you, when you wear, plaid and a vest.

Speaker 2:

This is what happens. You have the same brain as me. You hear me? Yeah, that sounds good. You don't have any teeth. Yes, yes, yes, unbelievable. So one of the other things, too, I wanted to remind people was you know, we're at the beginning of the year here, so what I would suggest is, if you have any inkling of purchasing over the next five, six, seven months, or this year at all, get your pre-approval. Oh, absolutely yes, get your pre-approval, because this is the time. Yeah, you know, get, get yourself together, get your finances together, get your bank statements together, get the pre-approval and get a good pre-approval. Get the one where they ask you for all those things, because if they just if you do it online and you just put in your name and you're and you quote your income. That's not a good pre-approval.

Speaker 1:

No, a lot of the good lenders will do full underwriting right away too.

Speaker 2:

So you got to get that done Absolutely.

Speaker 1:

You'll be underwritten. The only thing waiting is in a braze. At that point it's exactly right.

Speaker 2:

I know one of the sponsors of the show, mike Bauer, from.

Speaker 1:

CMG mortgage. He does that, he does that yeah.

Speaker 2:

And so does Jock Jacobson he does that also? There's a bunch of them out there that do that and I think you know it's a smart thing to do. Yep.

Speaker 1:

If this is the, year, you're buying this.

Speaker 2:

That's the thing to do, because I'll tell you what. As soon as that inventory starts to go up and you do see the house you want, the last thing you want to do is be scrambling for your W2s, for this, for that, all these other things you want to make sure you have it all together.

Speaker 1:

Yep, get it done now, yeah.

Speaker 2:

So I have something I want you to try. Yeah, I brought one in for you. Now you have to shake this up. Good, this is the magic mind. This is the stuff that Jess and I have been drinking every morning with our coffee, and it goes wonderful with your coffee. I have a coffee chaser. And I told you to bring the coffee chaser. So that's. That wasn't set up or anything. No, not at all. But here I want you to, I want you to give us a try. There's all kinds of good stuff in here there's agave, there's macho, which is the big thing today that we was talking about Right Macho it's boost. Yeah, two marics in here. There's organic the lion's mane mushroom, which is a big thing today, if you read anything about Neutropics and it's funny, you know one of the last guests we had on here they take there's a lot of people that are taking some type of Neutropic. Yeah, Is it Neutropic or Neutropic? What do you think? Neutropic, neutropic, neutropic? Yeah, okay, sounds good to me. So so, yeah, so I want you to give this a try.

Speaker 1:

Okay.

Speaker 2:

So there you go. It looks like. It looks like something you shouldn't be drinking. It looks like green paint it looks. But I gotta tell you it's not and it's not bad. What I would do is just do two shots. I do it in two shots. It's pretty Like have you ever done a shot before in your life? Oh well, no, I would never lie.

Speaker 1:

Maybe once in high school. Yes, I did inhale. Yes, I did inhale and I have done shots. Actually, it was so much fun. A couple of months ago we went out with the kids and we had to teach our kids how to do a tequila shot. Are you kidding me? It was awesome.

Speaker 2:

Well, that's an older thing though.

Speaker 1:

I know With the salt, yeah, yeah, yeah, it was great.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, actually, michelle. And then laying in front of the toilet later. Did you show them that?

Speaker 1:

too. Oh yeah, no, no, it's all part of it. It's all part of it. It's all part of it. No, michelle actually did the best. Actually, oh, did she really? She was a sorority girl. Yeah, yeah, she's experienced. So go ahead, jerry that's right. Bottoms up.

Speaker 2:

Ok, what do you think it tastes?

Speaker 1:

isn't bad. No, it's not bad. No.

Speaker 2:

There you go. It takes two shots, it's down. I actually think that after a while what I do is I taste it's a different taste, it's got a pineapple in there. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's got a. I taste citrus in there, or something like that. Yeah.

Speaker 1:

OK, Now how long is it going to take me for it until I actually wake up again?

Speaker 2:

No, you're good, You're good no what happens?

Speaker 1:

It's energy, though.

Speaker 2:

right, it's all, right it's natural energy, and so it's not a shaky energy. It's not a oh, I'm loading up on caffeine. It's a lot of good things that they're finding out. Basically, what it does it clears your mind, gives you energy without shakiness, right, and it's called Magic Mind and we've been drinking it now for probably a month or so and Jess loves it, I love it. A couple of my friends have already purchased it and they're using it also. So if you want you know anybody wants to check it out you can go to magicmindcom, backslash Brad Wiseman, and the code is Wiseman20. You get a discount if you use that code.

Speaker 1:

Oh, nice, yeah, I'm going to go on and do that Absolutely. I think they recommend a chaser with Coffee, right, because, if you could, because caffeine is a distributor, absolutely, so it'll help distribute it through your body, yeah, and what I've noticed is I don't need three cups of coffee in the morning, I only need one.

Speaker 2:

Oh, that's nice, and I drink that with the one coffee and I look forward to it and I definitely feel like I have energy. Yeah, right, I feel good about it. Yeah, nice, so what? Like he needs it? Yeah, exactly, that's right, this is true.

Speaker 1:

This is true, brad Wiseman.

Speaker 2:

I have energy normally, so well, with that being said, let's talk about some more predictions.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, you're welcome. Thank you very much. That was great. Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 2:

If he falls over, it's not my fault.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I would tell Emily to come get me.

Speaker 2:

This will be the last podcast Pete will be on. She told me to come get you. Yeah, I'm not up in a half hour. Yeah, yeah, Just come get me. So 2024 home price forecasts are out.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, yeah, yeah, this is good they just came out and it's interesting.

Speaker 2:

You know what I think is funny? The highest prediction is 4.1%, the highest one for 24. Yep, and then the lowest one is negative, 1.7. Yeah, I have a feeling.

Speaker 1:

So talk about.

Speaker 2:

So who do you think the one negative 1.7 is Red? Yeah, it's not Redfin, oh, it's realtorcom. No, yes, well, that shocks me. And Zillow is 0.2%. Well, I get that one, yeah, what you know what's funny about that was Zillow. They overpriced everybody's house on this estimate, right, yeah, but, but. But. But when they oh no, but when they look at, they look at the market as a whole, they're going to say, oh, everything's going to be less. I'm like, really, guys, really, let's stay consistent.

Speaker 1:

I know really Isn't that funny, yeah, so beware, it's not accurate. Everybody just, you know, call your realtor to get a real analysis done. I just don't go off that thing. I just did one recently.

Speaker 2:

Sorry, zillow the people said it was worth their house was worth 310. Okay yeah, and because this estimate said 310 to 315, the highest I can possibly substantiate is 220,. Oh yeah, 285.

Speaker 1:

Well, there it is.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, so it just shows you you had the proof, though you had the columns.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, absolutely. You had it right, absolutely.

Speaker 2:

So let's go with who the highest. The Mortgage Bankers Association is saying they're predicting for 2024, 4.1% appreciation. The Mortgage Bankers MBAs, yeah yeah. So they're pretty positive. And then the in-betweens are Freddie Mac saying 2.6, fannie Mae saying 2.8, and the average of all of them 1.5.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, still plus, still plus, still plus, and that's again national. That is national. Takes the short points in the account.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely.

Speaker 1:

And I think we're going to be higher than that I think so too I would love for us to get back to four.

Speaker 2:

Berks County is going to be probably at that 4% again. I really do think that you heard the prediction here, hugo, write it down Four-ish, four-ish.

Speaker 1:

All right, you got that. Four-ish, four-ish, which means we're at seven-ish, which means it could be seven or two.

Speaker 2:

Okay, that's pretty much how we work things around here Call us politicians. The other thing that I thought was interesting was the active listing count. Yeah, yeah, when you looked at the years and so 2023, active listing count was 754,846 for the whole country. What's amazing about that is low. It's really low. 2019 was 1.1 million. Yeah, 2018 was 1.2 million. 2017 is 1.2 million also. You know what's amazing? This is that number. There is why I think Realtorcom is wrong. Yes, if you don't want less sales to compare yeah and that's overall, that's the whole country.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, it's not a fair number. No, I'm sorry, we're Realtors. Yeah, but that's not a fair number.

Speaker 2:

No, no, so I just thought, that was interesting.

Speaker 1:

It's skewed, I guess it's skewed. It is skewed, you know, that's all that is Absolutely so.

Speaker 2:

You have anything else? Is there any other fun news? How's the market out there? What are you thinking?

Speaker 1:

I think the market's. There's stuff flying off the shelves. Yeah, I think so too, and it's January, I mean it's already flying off the shelves, you see that.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely, I have. I just got a listing in the Y Missing Wilson area and it's already got a bunch of showings for next week. Yeah, so that's, that just shows you things are still moving.

Speaker 1:

Oh, absolutely, I just picked one up in Glenmore down in Chester County. Yeah, it is a total disaster.

Speaker 2:

Oh, that's great.

Speaker 1:

And it's getting. Is this the?

Speaker 2:

marketing that you use for it. Yeah, it's a disaster. Yeah, so you know well, the agent called me and said he's an honest Realtor.

Speaker 1:

I am an honest Realtor. He's a very honest friend and the owner knows it's a disaster. This place is a dump. Oh my God, but you know what it is, though dude. What's that it's priced properly, because in that area you know you're in the five, six, sevens.

Speaker 2:

Oh, you're not getting anything.

Speaker 1:

Right, yeah, fixed up. This is 385. Yeah, so fix it up With the right buyer and sweat equity, absolutely. It's got the deep windowsills, it's got the walk in the fireplace the cobblestone floor.

Speaker 2:

I'd suggest not walking in the fireplace when it's on. That's a good suggestion. Yeah, just to just. Yeah. Yeah, the net. Otherwise, yeah, I think you're good.

Speaker 1:

But no, I think we're going to. We talked about this month or two ago. Yeah, it's going to be a good spring. I think it's going to be a good spring. It's going to be a great spring for both sides of the aisle because both buyers and sellers, those rates come down, oh yeah, right, absolutely. And the sell? There's going to be more people looking, yep, right.

Speaker 2:

Well, because as soon as rates come down, sellers are going to want to sell. Also they will. Right now they don't want to sell what they didn't want to sell because 8.5% they have 3.5% an hour for and they're looking to buy and they just can't. They can't justify. Oh, I'm going to go from 8% to or go from from 4% to 8%.

Speaker 1:

You know what I mean. Yeah, if you need a loan.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely, absolutely.

Speaker 1:

It's going to be good. It's going to be a great year, I think, awesome. Yeah, yeah, I just love doing this show with you, man. So do I, man, love helping people?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, I hope you make it past the drink. Yeah, actually, you feel good I do, it's not a bad taste though right, it's good.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, don't, don't be scared of the color. Yeah, you know, the color scared me the first time, right, but it tastes good. It does. It does taste good. I actually look forward to it every morning, yeah.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, I'll see, I'll see, I'll see, I'll see, I'll see, I'll see.

Speaker 1:

Well, there, you have it there you have it.

Speaker 2:

Pete was back in the studio here and that was just awesome, and we will be here every Thursday at 7 PM. Please check us out on Instagram, facebook oh my God, it's called X now, I guess is what it's called. Check us out there and we hope you're back again next week. Thanks so much.

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