The Brad Weisman Show

Why Housing Prices Aren't Dropping Anytime Soon!

March 14, 2024 Brad Weisman, Realtor
The Brad Weisman Show
Why Housing Prices Aren't Dropping Anytime Soon!
Show Notes Transcript Chapter Markers

Ever wondered why everyone's saying housing prices will plummet, but your dream home still costs an arm and a leg?  Brad and Pete Heim debunk myths with a dose of reality and a sprinkle of humor, explaining why your wallet won't get a break anytime soon.  We navigate through the real estate fog, bringing to light how supply and demand are the true puppeteers of the market.  Sure, life throws us curveballs, but the need for a roof over our heads isn't going anywhere.  Strap in for a candid chat that might just make you rethink waiting out the market.

Craving the inside scoop on local real estate buzz?  You're in luck! We walk you through the solid, if not surprising, rise in property values and share success stories like Hugo's, which prove that playing the waiting game might mean missing out on turning your rent receipts into a home of your own.  From the front lines of bidding wars, we cover it all, offering wisdom on why the real estate market isn't just numbers—it's people, places, and the pulse of the communities we serve.  So, tune in and let's unravel the tapestry of today's housing landscape together.
#housingmarket #bradweisman #peteheim #homeprices #thebradweismanshow

"Supply is still LOW, so PRICES will Remain Steady or Rise" - Brad Weisman

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Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show (formerly known as Real Estate and YOU), where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! 🎙️ Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! 🏡🌟 #TheBradWeismanShow #RealEstateRealLife #realestateandyou

Credits - The music for my podcast was written and performed by Jeff Miller.

Speaker 2:

From real estate to real life and everything in between the Brad Wiseman show and now your host, brad Wiseman. All right, we are back. Whether you like it or not, we're back. It's just the way it is. Every Thursday at 7 pm, you get to hear me and then, once a month, you get to hear this other person that's sitting to my right. His name is Pete Heim. You might have met him once or twice before. The bad penny Keep showing up, just keep showing up. No, but we are back once a month to talk about real estate, because the show is not always about real estate now. So it is nice, because I look forward to actually talking about real estate on this show, which is good, which is good, and you know I'm not that interesting, so the only thing I know is real estate.

Speaker 2:

That's it. Yeah, you're pretty boring otherwise.

Speaker 1:

You can Google me. I'm the most boring person on.

Speaker 2:

Google. It just says Google Pete Heim is just a blank. It's just a blank space there.

Speaker 1:

It's pretty bad. That's right, we still like you. Oh, thanks, man.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, so the first thing we talked about, we wanted to talk about was mindset.

Speaker 2:

That was the word. The word of the day is mindset. That's right. But no, the reason we talk about mindset is that there's a lot going on right now with mindset of buyers and sellers and we want to make sure that we, the way they think and their opinion about what the market is doing is their own opinion. That's great, that's right, right. All we want to do is not say that they're wrong is maybe give them another idea, maybe have them think outside the box a little bit so that they realize that or they understand that they're, that maybe their way of looking at this market is a little skewed because of, probably, media, because of, maybe some bad information.

Speaker 1:

Exactly Right. It's where you're getting your information from.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, exactly, so one of the and it, does it apply?

Speaker 2:

It does it apply exactly? So mindset, what we're talking about with mindset for buyers and sellers is a little graph that I have here. That was interesting that I got from Keeping Current Matters, the narrative we must combat and this is just for realtors and stuff like that but it's not a combative thing, it's an educational thing. We want to make sure we educate the public. So the percent of Americans who think prices will go down over the next 12 months, how many? What do you think, percentage wise? How many people do you think in the US think the prices are going to go down over the next 12 months?

Speaker 1:

Over the next 12 months, I think it's probably 47%.

Speaker 2:

It's 24%, oh wow.

Speaker 1:

Okay, it's not as bad as you thought. I thought it would have been more.

Speaker 2:

No, it's actually 24%. It's 44% of the public. Okay, now you got to remember too, that's not just I don't think it's just Americans or just the public. It's people that are actually looking to buy or sell, right? So that's a smaller pool of people, sure, but they, they're thinking the prices are gonna get down. Do you think prices are gonna go down over the next 12 months?

Speaker 1:

I would bet my paycheck, which I don't make yeah, exactly, you know how that works, but anyway exactly that. They won't.

Speaker 2:

You go gonna go up. Do you think, hugo, the prices are gonna go down the next 12 months?

Speaker 1:

the prices.

Speaker 2:

Yeah. Do you think they're gonna go down the next 12 months? Are you part of the 24% or are you?

Speaker 1:

I don't know. I guess it depends on this in the supply of the of the market, I guess and the demand there. It is because spring is coming now and the man is gonna Yep can you?

Speaker 2:

take over here so you must listen to a really good podcast. No, you're right, hugo. You're exactly right. It's supply and demand, which we all know about, but I think what we're trying to let people know is that it's the prices aren't gonna come down.

Speaker 1:

No, they're not, they're not. I could almost, like I said, bet my paycheck that it's not gonna come down your commission, because then we know you're really gonna bet the next commission I make eventually is.

Speaker 2:

That the prices will not come down in July when he gets his next commission check. You've seen the books and if the price has come down, he doesn't even get that check.

Speaker 1:

So our discussion before the podcast was Pete, where the heck are your sales? Yeah, where are your?

Speaker 2:

sales, pete Geez, it's unbelievable. So no, and that's what we're trying to do, is we're trying to say look and why? Why is that?

Speaker 1:

It's the biggest thing really. Is that the inventory? I mean today it's 302 homes on the market. Yeah, you know, and I was talking to my good friend and coach, anthony today that you know, don't worry about that, because the floor is never zero. You remember everybody. Okay, listen, the floor is never, zero in real estate, because there's always people coming and going in real estate. They need to move for whatever reason there is right. It doesn't matter if the interest rates go to 10% or whatever, it won't matter.

Speaker 2:

It's life situations. Life situations will keep inventory above zero, yeah, absolutely divorces death death.

Speaker 1:

all the D's, yeah, all the D's. I think there's another, there's seven D's, or really. Wow, yeah, hmm, yeah, like, so could it be like?

Speaker 2:

relocation, and how about the dipshit next thing they're living next to?

Speaker 1:

me there's, there's the D for there, yeah.

Speaker 2:

I got two dipshits next to me so I'm moving. That's two D's right there so we could took up to these, but no, that's that. That's true. Yeah, you're gonna have, you're gonna have. Now the thing is is right now people that want to move or Would move if the right house came about? Yeah, that's where we're starting to get in a little bit.

Speaker 1:

That's where we'll let's talk about your poll, because you know, I mean that's just inventory, but I mean there's other reasons why it's gonna talk about my poll.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, that I did. All we guys were gonna talk about that. But, yeah, yeah, let's talk about. But the reason why? No, the reason why the limit or is so low is, well, not the reason because it's so low. The reason why the prices aren't gonna go down is because 302 homes in the market Brooks County is about 10%, or maybe 20%, 20%, yeah, of worse should be. Yeah, right, about right. So that's gonna keep things rolling and Across the nation, it's, it's that way. The lending regulations, the regular regulations, if you know, you're gonna, you're gonna see graphs on this. But the housing bubble yeah, everyone could get a mortgage, the, the index for mortgage, mortgage credit availability index, which you know it makes it available to people 868.7, was that index right? Today we're at 92.7 because the banks got stricter again? Yeah, of course, and so that's gonna keep it.

Speaker 2:

That's. That's gonna keep up, absolutely Right, you guys understand that you understand why.

Speaker 1:

Right cuz not everyone is gonna get a mortgage. Exactly right, which is the right way to do it.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely. Well, that's once again. We talked about that. We always everybody was saying there's gonna be this housing, bubble, housing. But we're gonna say this crash. You know we got higher interest rates. Okay, then we've had before, but now they're actually back down again. They're back down a little bit. People got and prices are still going up. They're still going up. So you know it. And here's the thing if the rates end up settling down, which we think they're gonna do in the high fives, low sixes, that's about where we think they're gonna end up settling. I, if you wait and the prices of the house goes up 7%, you didn't gain anything. You lost, you lost money. So you know, don't wait around. You're losing by waiting. You're losing by waiting, absolutely.

Speaker 1:

And then there's a guarantee. And then, dude, there's that Tapable equity is at an all time high. Everybody, the nation, has $10.3 trillion of tapable equity that people have in their homes.

Speaker 2:

Let's talk about how much higher that is. Oh, it's well in 2022.

Speaker 1:

It was well. What was that? Well, 2005 it was 4.9, which was in a low spot.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, so $10.3 trillion of equity. This is why we don't have foreclosures. That's exactly right, because there's. You know, when somebody came up to me recently in our office and said that there was a client they were just gonna foreclose on their house, I'm like wait, why Do they understand? Why would you foreclose today, now, if you bought it last year? Maybe, maybe, maybe.

Speaker 1:

You're still gonna be okay. You still should be okay, yeah.

Speaker 2:

I just thought it was funny. Nobody should be foreclosing. So if you're having a situation right now financially, I would definitely suggest talk to a realtor and do not just throw in the towel.

Speaker 1:

Oh my gosh.

Speaker 2:

Don't throw in the towel. There's money there for you to take away. Yeah, definitely money for you to take away, absolutely, yeah.

Speaker 1:

So that's why the prices are gonna go up. Oh yeah, and it's. And they're saying the fives, remember the five? The three fives 5% interest rate, 5% appreciation. What was the other five? Oh, 5.5 million home sales.

Speaker 2:

Oh wow In the nation.

Speaker 1:

Because I think we had 3.9 last year.

Speaker 2:

So that's the three. That's it. That's the ones. That's the three, fives yeah, that's what we wanna see, that's what they're predicting.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, that's good. That was KCM, I'm gonna say a month ago two months ago. Okay, yeah.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, okay. So let's talk about. I also wanted to do and I was telling you about this before we started I did a little of my own poll. Yeah, my own little test. I thought you know what, I'm gonna reach out to my past clients and see what I get. So I did a text that I sent out and I said, you know, if the one question was what's your interest rate? Because I don't know, you know people think, oh, you should know that, well, if I sold the house six years ago or seven years ago, whatever it is, and they refinanced, I don't know that. I don't have that information in front of me.

Speaker 2:

So what I was trying to do is find out out of my past customers what are the interest rates that most of them have. And the second question was if you were thinking about moving, would you let just the interest rate hold you back? Great question, okay, and it was amazing what I got back. One, what I was really surprised, as most of my clients my past clients aren't at 2.9 to 3.5% interest rate. Yeah, so much for getting those clients to buy a house anytime soon. So what this meant is that I sold my house today. You know, sold my car. I'm selling everything Selling the studio no.

Speaker 2:

So, but what I realized too from that is that they also said there was a couple that said that they would not let the interest rate hold them back. Okay, and others said that they would be taking them out in a box. So that was kind of it was the wheelbarrow house. Yeah, that was right. So that's basically what. So it was interesting to find out that one of the things that we are seeing as a challenge in our market, as realtors and as buyers trying to get into the market is that if somebody has a really good rate and they want to downsize or want to go into a one floor living, there's two things One is we don't have a lot of inventory for them to go to, and the other thing is that even if they downsize right now, they might be paying a higher interest rate. So that's the one thing. I mean, that's what we're dealing with right now. But reality is, what I found out is that people are going to move, that they want to move anyway.

Speaker 1:

That's the gist of it.

Speaker 2:

If they need, especially if they're looking for something on all one floor. I have somebody that's been looking for something on all one floor for two years now.

Speaker 1:

Right Two years Try and find that right now.

Speaker 2:

It's tough, it's very tough, yeah, very tough. I hear you. So what else?

Speaker 1:

are you seeing? So the interest rates are? They're saying there could be in the, like you said, the fives they're slipping. I mean they're under seven now nationally. We saw six and a half come across our desk this morning. Yep.

Speaker 2:

So I think we're going to be in the low sixes, high fives, and at that point that's a good rate, yeah.

Speaker 1:

That's a really good rate. Yeah, absolutely, and Brad, since January 1st our local market prices are up 2.3%. Since January 1st, guys, it's the first two months of the year.

Speaker 2:

Should have bought. January 1st Should have bought January 1st. Damn it.

Speaker 1:

Yeah. I would say since we've been doing this podcast, I've been saying that, darn it.

Speaker 2:

So, hugo, you're doing well. You bought a house back in October, yeah.

Speaker 1:

October.

Speaker 2:

September. So he already gained probably 3% equity, something like that, probably more, because I know you've done a lot of work at your house.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's looking nice. It's looking nice, it's good. Glad I bought back in October. That's good.

Speaker 2:

That's good. So he's in the game. Yeah, you're in the game. Yeah, and that rent money that you were spending is now going into your investment into your future.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, that's awesome Very cool Anybody watching this and you have access to Brad's stuff on there.

Speaker 2:

Hopefully somebody's watching it.

Speaker 1:

If someone's watching it, you have access to my style of Brad's.

Speaker 2:

If anybody does watch the show is there any, but maybe all three of you you know my mom will call you.

Speaker 1:

Reach out to Brad or me, if you have our cell phone numbers or messenger or something, and please say it. Say hey, if the I am not moving because the interest rates, right, and what is your current interest rate? And then and then just start some dialogue with that because we're curious, we're just taking we're just going to do this with my database too.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, I think it's it's good to find out. Yeah, it's good to find out where people are. So, because you know, we can look at all these national stats, we can look at local, local stats. But it's just nice to know on the on the grassroots, on the ground level, like, okay, what is going on, what's?

Speaker 1:

happening in our market place, and I think we need to come back to the fact that it's a micro, micro market. What is because it's?

Speaker 2:

it's that micro. And, by the way too, be careful what you hear on the news, because I have a client now moving from Alabama to here. Okay, their market is completely different than ours, Completely different. They're they're sitting, the houses are sitting, oh yeah, All the normal stuff they're. They're accepting homesale contingencies. I was like what Are you kidding me? Who does that?

Speaker 2:

But I talked to the realtor down there and she said they're oh yeah, when she found out what our market is still doing up here, she was blown away. Yeah, she, because there are places in the United States, many places, that are turning. Yeah, so you just have to understand it. When we're talking about stuff, you know we're talking about our local market here. Yep, it is different in every market. So if you're listening to this and you're in New York or you're in Alabama or you're somewhere else in the United States, be sure you listen to your realtor in that area Please, Because it is so different from place to place.

Speaker 1:

Tampa has there's. I have a friend come move him back up here from Tampa. He can't get his household I mean there's so many homes on the market in his development. I mean other areas is just different.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

But but listen, I think in Berks County we are going this could go crazy again. Yeah, if these rates continue to come down. Everybody there is so much buyer pent up demand. Right now in our area we are experiencing multiple offers again. Yeah, over asking. I think I saw Dave DeSambrio post something about he hasn't sold anything under list price so far this year.

Speaker 2:

Well, the last one I sold in Wilson. Just lots of money.

Speaker 1:

So Wilson um sorry, dave, I wanted to shout out to you there, but you know a great guy.

Speaker 2:

I love Dave.

Speaker 1:

I saw he posted that. Oh, no, and I'm like, okay, well, that's just Dave, but so there's others that are. There's others out there that saying they're not getting less than list.

Speaker 2:

Hey, listen to house 479. Right, I was at 479 nine. Thought that that was a high price. Think of this is the top of the market for this house, right? Got an offer with an escalation, got three or four offers. The person that got it got it for 506.

Speaker 1:

Boom, it's incredible, right. $26,000 more than the endless price, that's what it is. Yeah, if, if, as more homes start to come on in the spring market cause there probably will be, because everyone wants to wait till the spring, that's still kind of going on. For some reason, spring is a thing I know that rhymed Spring is the thing you got. That Spring fling is a spring fling is a thing. That's right. Hugo gets humor out of rhyming.

Speaker 2:

He's like you're a really good writer.

Speaker 1:

But this says this could turn into the perfect storm again.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, absolutely 18 offers and three hours, and that's why you don't want to wait.

Speaker 1:

Don't wait, don't wait, don't wait, don't wait.

Speaker 2:

So what else you wanted to do? A shout out, I think.

Speaker 1:

I do. Yeah, I'm not going to say her last name, but our dear friend Deb. She was my first client in real estate, wow, in 1984,. Her husband recently passed away and he, they're just the greatest people you want to meet. And, deb, you said you watched the podcast, so I just wanted to shout out to you and thanks for watching. We actually know there is one person that's watching, so and my mom.

Speaker 1:

So thanks, and my mom yeah, but we'll continue to pray for you, and I know you're going to be moving back to the area. I'm really excited to see you again, so that's awesome, just thinking of you and praying for you.

Speaker 2:

That was our first shout out. Yeah, I don't think we've ever had a shout out before.

Speaker 1:

Thanks for letting me do it. Absolutely, man, that's great. I love that Very cool.

Speaker 2:

I just love the fact that we have one fan. That's awesome. It's amazing.

Speaker 1:

She loves the show, she told me oh, that's good, that's good.

Speaker 2:

We love her too.

Speaker 1:

And we're sorry to hear about the loss.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, Thanks, all right, that's it. Pete was back here doing your thing. It's awesome, very cool, very cool. So he'll be back again next month and we are here every Thursday at 7pm. We got all kinds of shows coming up, guys, so make sure you check out our Instagram page, our Facebook page You'll actually see a schedule for the month to know what's going on. Yeah, we're having a good time here. All right, that's about it. See you soon.

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