Housing Market Hustle: From Grocery Bills to Home Buying Thrills

Imagine your grocery bill and your house operating on the same economic rollercoaster. Surprised? So were we.  Join Pete and me for an enthralling conversation where we explore the similarities between the fluctuating costs of everyday items and the soaring prices in the housing market.  As we peel back the layers, you'll discover how a recent slip in interest rates has reignited buyer enthusiasm and what this means for showing activity.  It's a wild ride through the real estate landscape, where we're uncovering not just trends, but the excitement brewing among buyers ready to leap back into the market as conditions evolve.

Now, let's talk about the great migration—not birds, but people flocking to Florida and often boomeranging back for the warmth of family ties.  We dissect this pattern and its emotional undertones, providing an intimate look at what drives the decision to move and, sometimes, move back.  We'll also navigate through the maze of housing market predictions, from expert forecasts to the challenges of affordability and inventory shortages.  To cap it off, we marvel at the historical data that showcases a staggering national appreciation rate, painting a picture of why real estate remains one of the most robust investments over time. Tune in for a session packed with insights, and maybe even find a new perspective on your next home, or grocery, investment. #realestatemarket #peteheim #bradweisman #housingmarket

"The Housing Inventory Shortfall is here to stay, so don't wait for it to change.  Jump into this market sooner than later and you'll be looking at prices a year from now thankful that you did" - Brad Weisman

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Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show, where we dive into the world of real people, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! 🎙️ Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! 🏡🌟 #TheBradWeismanShow #RealPeopleRealLife 

Credits - The music for my podcast was written and performed by Jeff Miller. 

Transcript

Speaker 1 0:31

from real estate to real life and everything in between the brad weisman show and now your host, brad weisman all right.

Speaker 2 0:42

Oh, it's that time of the month. Pete is in the studio, we are here to talk about what's going on in the real estate market, like we do every single month, and uh, what is it? Is it the second thursday or third thursday? I don't even know what day, what day, I don't know. We should start calling it a cycle, yeah, cycle. There we go. I'm gonna call it something, but no, if you only could hear the conversations that we have here in the studio before we start. Um, it's a lot of times about all kinds of topics, but one of the topics we brought up and it was interesting was the grocery store.

Speaker 1 1:11

I mean it has nothing to do with real estate.

Speaker 2 1:13

but you know, we look at everything going up. Everybody talks about real estate going up, but let's talk about it Seriously. There's a lot of stuff going up, and the grocery thing is just what blows my mind. It's unreal. And you know, you remember the little, the little boxes of cereal that you would get, like the individual ones. Those are the real ones now. Oh yeah, they just charge the same price as the big ones. Have you right? It's unbelievable, like I don't know what's going on, you get one cheerio, it's really it's depressing.

Speaker 2 1:41

Yeah, it's true, it's terrible, and I love lucky charms me too.

Speaker 1 1:45

Man, it's my gosh. Are they good? And captain crunch, yeah, yeah, they're magically delicious. Yeah, that's right, it's right. But remember the discussion when, if we start talking about real estate and the price increase and stuff like that, and you kind of said, well, what about the grocery store? Yeah, exactly. Wow, it's everything, it's everything, guys.

Speaker 2 2:00

Everything's up. Well, that's the thing. But what I'm saying is we get so much attention because the house is going up. The thing that's different is with ams you eat it and it's gone, you're done. Real estate's an investment, exactly. So let's talk about some real estate here. One of the things you did Lucky Charms is an investment in your middle, though it's like that.

Speaker 1 2:19

Oh I love it. It's that well the reason for that roll.

Speaker 2 2:22

Oh, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 1 2:22

Let's not talk about rolls.

Speaker 2 2:26

That's so good. Speaking of donuts, we have a Duck Donuts nearby too which is really nice.

Speaker 1 2:30

Are they a sponsor? They're not, but we'll bring them up. I always like small businesses.

Speaker 2 2:34

Oh, absolutely. You know who is a sponsor and I can talk about them really quickly because I'm really excited. I have my car getting scheduled at the place called the Detail Shop. It is a car detail place called the Detail Shop. Ethan Lasher is the actual owner of this and he's sponsoring the show. We have been putting him on some of the facebook posts and things like that and I'm really excited because he's going to detail my car. Wow, that's cool. He has no idea what he's in store for. You know, I think there's probably french fries under the seat from like the 1970s smushed yeah, oh yeah there's odors in there that I'm like something's dead in there.

Speaker 2 3:14

Oh yeah, Something's definitely dead.

Speaker 1 3:16

So yeah, so there's Pre-industrial Shout out to Ethan, the detail shop. Are you bartering him then? Yeah, I think so. I think that's what we're gonna do. I think he's gonna detail my car and we're talking about him.

Speaker 2 3:24

Good deal, yeah, absolutely. So, let's get over, but you know what it is. There's a lot coming on, but they just go off they go as quickly as they come on.

Speaker 1 3:44

Yeah, it's amazing we're back into this mega multi multiple offer thing. Yeah, and you know, I think people got used to the seven percent ish yes, you you know, whenever it drops, people come back in.

Speaker 2 3:55

I think we're around 6.75 to 7.25. It kind of goes back and forth. It's just gone back and forth 6.625 today. Yeah, yeah, awesome.

Speaker 1 4:03

Just over between 6.5 and 7, most people.

Speaker 2 4:05

It's awesome, all right, so it's kind of calmed down. So what, what else let's? Let's talk about the other numbers that you have, okay, well, buyer traffic.

Speaker 1 4:12

You know we. Um, in 2019 there was, it was 126.8. You know that's. We all know what that. I think we all know what that is. It's average showings in a month yep, now this is in our, in our multi-list system, which is more regional than berks county. Yeah, in 2023, it was 198.3. So wow. And now, recently, now, with the, with the interest rates being dropped a little bit, I think it's probably over 200. It's probably in the 206, 208 range, but I haven't seen that stat yet, so I'm sure it's there. Yeah, so there's people reentering. Yeah, they're coming back in.

Speaker 1 4:42

Absolutely, and I think it all has to do with well. 72% of the people who said they didn't buy a house was because of the interest rate hike. So now those people are. Now we're on the fence, we're coming back in, so that makes sense, Well.

Speaker 2 4:51

I think what we said before. There's two things that are going to happen. That's going to bring the buyers that are on the sidelines back in. One is they're going to. There's two choices. One, they get used to the rate where it is. The other one, which would have made it even worse, which the rate goes down to 5%es and high fives, we would definitely be seeing some serious. It'd be going crazy, it'll be just right, Pandemic, post pandemic.

Speaker 1 5:19

Oh it'd be crazy.

Speaker 2 5:20

But but what happened now is the people and I have I have a buyer just returned a week and a half ago. Um, he had been taking a break. He took a break for basically almost like a year. I haven't, I mean, I've been in touch with him, but for like a year I haven't, I mean, I've been in touch with him, but for like a year. He just kind of was like, yeah, I'm just gonna hold off. He was getting uh upset about it, you know, getting depressed, and he's back in and I think it's one of those things where he's realizing this is it. He said to me he goes, I gotta buy a house. I'm renting, he said. And every year I keep saying I'm gonna buy a house. The prices go up. And he said now the interest rates were higher at one point. Now they're down a little bit. He's like I just want to get in before they go back to eight and a half or something like that.

Speaker 1 5:53

You know yeah so it's cool, it's interesting we all bought houses in 2019 oh my god, 10 of them. Yeah right, yep, absolutely because it's 50 percent increase or something. I forget what it was. I had oh 50 58.77 percent appreciation over the last five.

Speaker 2 6:07

Hugo did well. He bought one last year 2000, 2023 23.

Speaker 1 6:12

yeah, well, you got 7%.

Speaker 2 6:13

I'm glad I did. Yeah, I, you know. My rate was, I think, seven and a half, seven, four, nine. But man, I'm glad I did, because now it's you made that up in appreciation.

Speaker 1 6:23

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 2 6:24

He made a good purchase, good investment, and Did you think, oh my gosh, what am I doing? I should wait until either rates come down or the prices come down, or do you know what I mean?

Speaker 1 6:35

When you jumped in, I have to tell you that I was very well informed by a podcast, that I listened to, a podcast you said.

Speaker 2 6:41

Oh great, there's another $50.

Speaker 1 6:43

Once a month. Okay, once a month, yeah, once a month. It wasn't the cooking show.

Speaker 2 6:49

No, it was this one here. Yeah, no, but it's just funny because I'm telling you, people think, oh my gosh, I don't want to jump in, I don't want to, you know, but it's not going to change. It's not going to change and what did we just say before we started? We said this whole seller's market or this situation we're in is not going to change anytime soon.

Speaker 1 7:08

Right, because, well, we said active 315. That's very low, extremely low. I mean 1500 to 2000 is a balanced market. Everyone knows that, yep, 90% of the mortgages that are outstanding out there are under 5%. Wow, so people aren't moving? Nope, new construction's down 47%. Foreclosures aren't going to happen because people would just sell their house and be fine. Yep, right, if that happens, it's another extenuating circumstance, has to be.

Speaker 2 7:35

And you know what's amazing? I saw this stat somewhere. I don't know where it was and I'm not going to be able to find it right now.

Speaker 1 7:47

But it was incredible how the baby boomers are just not moving.

Speaker 2 7:48

It's the silver tsunami that, oh, and is that the one you're talking about? Yes, it's going to be more of a a slow wave, as opposed to tsunami.

Speaker 1 7:52

60 of those people want to stay, isn't that?

Speaker 2 7:54

amazing, they don't want to move 60.

Speaker 1 7:56

Now there's 40 that are going to do something and they're okay.

Speaker 2 7:59

What is happening is, years ago, people would either go from their, their house to either a, you know, like an assisted living or a community or whatever, something like over 55 or any of those things. And what's happening now is people are saying you know what I'll, I'll do things to my house, I'll bring the laundry up to the first floor, I'll put the the stair thing in if I need to. They're staying in their homes, they're not moving.

Speaker 1 8:23

They are. But the grandparent statistic. Do you see the grandparent one? No, I did not. This was cool because it-.

Speaker 2 8:28

Well, you're a grandparent, I'm not.

Speaker 1 8:29

I am so that's why I kind of it caught my attention.

Speaker 2 8:32

Yeah, sorry, I didn't mean to bring that up. That's a good thing. It's a good thing, yep.

Real Estate Trends and Statistics

Speaker 1 8:36

We're grandparents, which is really, really cool. I mean, you know, sorry kids, but I. I guess it doesn't work that way. The percentage of grandparents who move at least 100 miles to get close to their grandkids the 55 to 64-year-old bracket is 58% are willing to go over 100 miles to get to the grandkids.

Speaker 1 8:57

So they're moving and they're the silver tsunami people, mostly 65 to 74, it's 56%, that's amazing. And then 75 plus is 40. So obviously the older they are they're not as willing to move that distance. Yep, you know, I just thought that was an interesting statistic.

Speaker 2 9:12

Yeah, that's amazing, and you know how many times have you seen in your career? I've seen this a lot. Where people go, that's it. I'm moving to Florida. And they make the trip to Florida, right and they're. They're there for two years and then all of a sudden their kids up here start having kids, and then next thing you know we're moving back from.

Speaker 1 9:28

Florida.

Speaker 2 9:29

All the time. Yeah, people just want to be around family. And they think, even though it's a two-and-a-half-hour flight, people think, oh, we'll just do the two-and-a-half-hour flight, it's not the same.

Speaker 1 9:40

It's not the same. It's not the same. It Moms like to be there, absolutely. And obviously the grandfathers do too, but moms like to have their moms with them when they're going through that kind of stuff.

Speaker 2 9:50

So true, so true, so yeah. So what else are you seeing out there? What else have you got for stats? What?

Speaker 1 9:54

else we got here. We talked about that at home. Oh, here's a good one. It is so funny how these experts predict.

Speaker 2 10:03

Oh, I know I predict.

Speaker 1 10:04

Oh, I know I talked about this before we talked about the interest rate thing, which was really a big one.

Speaker 2 10:08

They're experts, they're experts, they're experts.

Speaker 1 10:09

Right, everybody, nobody's an expert. No, no one's an expert. So we're just stating stats here. November of 23, the MBAs of the world, nar, small Business Association, fannie Freddie, as a collective, zillow Redfin, as a collective, said that home price appreciation for 24 was going to be 1.5%. Wow, okay, and they all still are at the 5.2 million sale thing. There's going to be 5 million or so sales in the United States. A month later that went to 2.17.

Speaker 2 10:44

And they all went up and they're all like yeah.

Speaker 1 10:47

And then the next month it went to 2.17. That's and they all went up and they're all like, yeah, and then the next month that went to 2.35. Now the latest one that came out, now they're up to 3.27 and the highest is five and the lowest is two. Yeah, at one point one of them was negative. If you remember Yep, I remember that.

Speaker 2 11:01

Yep, I'm going to say it was nar or something I think that was zillow or something stupid, was it yeah? And the highest, which I thought was funny because they overprice everything when you're doing this estimate you know what I mean. They do this estimate.

Speaker 1 11:11

It's like 20 over what we think it is but we're.

Speaker 2 11:14

But we're saying things are going to go to shit this year. It's just gonna be bad. You know, it's like what the heck so.

Speaker 1 11:20

So, if this holds true, what you and I've been talking about since we've been doing this podcast is three to 4%. Appreciation is a comfort level. Yeah, exactly, and so we might be getting back to that. Yeah, I think it's going to be a little higher. I think the five, I think it's going to be five ish. Yeah, I think so, cause we were 7.39 here. I think it's going to be five ish.

Speaker 2 11:41

Yeah, just my personal this year, and I hope it's not over 5%, because then it starts, it really starts to become an issue with affordability, right. So that and that's, and then my biggest concern, or my biggest worry, is actually our, our federal government, trying to come in and make it more affordable for more people when they don't realize that's not the problem. Let's fix the problem.

Speaker 1 12:04

The problem is inventory.

Speaker 2 12:06

Yeah, I, yeah, I mean exactly that is 2008, thank you I just said that. But you know, after after the the state of union address, you know a lot of the things that were said there were were about making it more affordable. That is not our problem right now. It's not our problem we we have plenty of buyers.

Speaker 1 12:22

You saw that got shot down right yeah, thank god.

Speaker 2 12:24

thank god, I mean, it needed to get shot, they tried.

Speaker 1 12:26

And you know what it can't. That was. That's another perfect. We learned from history, right.

Speaker 2 12:31

Yeah, late nineties they made it affordable. Everybody could buy a house. It was 1998.

Speaker 1 12:35

Yep, exactly, and it took 10 years, yep, just like my. And so what is it? 2024?

Speaker 2 12:44

So by 2034, we would be going through the same thing Exactly, probably even sooner than that, sooner than that Probably sooner yeah.

Speaker 2 12:51

And I think this is what we've got to do. If you're talking to anybody or you want to have some kind of opinion on this, tell any government people that you know we need to solve the inventory problem, or at least help solve that. So we need less red tape. We need to loosen up the reins on some of the requirements for building and for development. We've got to build Exactly. We've got to build Unless we're all going to stop having babies but I don't think that's a choice that we're going to have or if we're going to close everything up that nobody else can come in.

Speaker 1 13:17

You know what I mean. So either way, we've got to hear this stat dude before we before we end this one, I I came up with an old um keeping current matters first quarter of 1991 oh boy, you guys got to hear this to the second quarter of 2023. I couldn't find anything more up to date. Okay, so from 1991 to 2023. Yeah, pretty much Okay. Okay, the national appreciation rate was 306.43%. 300, what 306. Wow, that's triple your home, tripled in value. Wow, that's incredible. Okay, now the last five years here value Wow, that's incredible.

Speaker 1 14:06

Okay, now the last five years here we just said it was 50. That's an average, that is national average Average In PA, new Jersey, new York. Yes, that region was 250. Wow, that region. So we're lower.

Speaker 2 14:17

We're a little lower average.

Speaker 1 14:18

Well, you got those short points and stuff, yep, yep, absolutely.

Speaker 2 14:21

And that took amazing Second homes and things.

Speaker 1 14:23

Yeah, boston, think about that, but last five years here locally was 58.77% Wow. If you bought in 2019, you gained almost 60% appreciation. That's incredible. Yeah, I just had to say that?

Speaker 2 14:36

That's amazing.

Speaker 1 14:37

That is a staggering statistic. It is, it really is, holy mackerel. So is buying a home a safe investment?

Speaker 2 14:43

I think so. Yeah, I think so. Here's the thing what can buyers do today to make their offer stand out or to be a better buyer? What can we do? We've talked about this a couple of times, but maybe we should reiterate what they can do to become a better buyer in order to have the best chance of winning the offer Right Not just because we're realtors, but they should have a realtor professional help them Absolutely, because it is not an easy game, not right now.

Speaker 1 15:07

And realtors but they should have a realtor professional help, absolutely, because it is not an easy game. Not right now, and so you try to do this on your own would be crazy. So have a trusted advisor with you first. That's the first thing. Second thing is obviously, get the pre-approval and make sure your credit is stellar. Get a good pre-approval letter and a strong pre-approval. I've been talking A strong one. Yeah, local, yeah, local.

Speaker 2 15:28

Absolutely, and everybody thinks that we're crazy when we say that we're not trying to. But local, a local pre-approval, is so important. It's important Because, as soon as as as a listing agent or somebody representing a seller, if I see something come in and nothing against rocket mortgage or any of these places, but if I see something come in with, that do they do a good job? Yes, actually, rocket mortgage does a great job. They really do for an online, an online company, they do a great job. But the problem is is when, when, when stuff starts to hit the wall and things are going bad, those guys are not around you know, whereas I can sit down and talk to a local lender and say, okay, this is where we are, how are we getting out of this?

Speaker 2 16:04

Or what are we going to do to solve this problem, because things just don't go smooth like everybody thinks. Sometimes there's little bumps in the road and it's all about having the right connections, right relationships in order to get it to the settlement table. I think that's important and I think when we talk about a good pre-approval you know, I just said this the other day to a buyer they got that rocket mortgage and they even said on there that their income was not verified, the expenses were not verified that's not a pre-approval. That's you just saying here's what I make, here's what I spend.

Speaker 1 16:38

That's all it is. That's easy. Yeah, we need somebody to look at the documentation and some lenders give a full underwritten.

Speaker 2 16:40

Oh, absolutely, I love those.

Speaker 1 16:41

The only thing they're waiting for is appraisal. That's right, and so I recommend it Absolutely. I mean not.

Speaker 2 16:50

Not every lender does it, but we have a list that does, and so that's a good. So basically, the one is work with a good, a good advisor a good advisor.

Speaker 1 16:54

And the other one is make sure you work in the great lender a great lender, good pre-approval letter and then and then you got negotiation things you got to talk about. You're going to pay both transfer taxes. You're going to waive inspections. These are all things you need to consider. Maybe.

Speaker 2 17:06

And also your realtor just picking up the phone and talking to the other agent. It's a relationship with other realtors. Yeah, say hey, what? What is your seller? What is your seller looking for? What settlement date Do they want to do a rent back? Do they want to do all those things All?

Speaker 1 17:17

those things. Got to be creative, Got to look at things and maybe expand your search parameters.

Speaker 2 17:21

Maybe that's a definite definite one, yeah, and we consider a condo versus a single that kind of stuff it's amazing how many people say I'm never going to live in anything like a condo or a townhouse. All of a sudden they look at properties and all those single homes look like crap. They're like. We think we might do a semi. We're thinking about the semi now. It's a possibility. Hey, you know what this show's over this is it? It was good being with you. Are you going to come back next month, if you have me?

Speaker 1 17:48

Okay, we'll have him back. Where do you think you go? I think he's welcome back the next cycle.

Speaker 2 17:51

The next cycle. That's right. The next cycle, that's exactly right. All right, pete, thanks for being here man, I appreciate it All right. There you go, show. We're on Facebook, youtube, instagram, pretty much anywhere you want to find us, you will find us. All right, we'll see you again next Thursday at 7 pm.