The Brad Weisman Show
Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show, where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! #TheBradWeisman #Show #RealEstateRealLife
The Brad Weisman Show
Breaking Free from Private Mortgage Insurance
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Pete Heim is back this week!! This episode explores the evolving landscape of real estate as we shift into spring, highlighting seasonality, increasing listings, and changing buyer dynamics, all influenced by interest rates. It addresses concerns about buyer qualifications, market sustainability, and the challenges faced by first-time home buyers, stressing the need for education and proactive strategies.
• The market is experiencing seasonality and increasing activity as winter ends
• Year-over-year comparison shows a rise in listings in January 2025
• Financial quality of buyers is lower, with some needing seller assistance
• Interest rates are currently hovering near 7%, affecting buyer behavior
• Average sale price has increased significantly year-over-year
• Expired listings reflect market conditions, not failures
• First-time buyers express concerns over the home buying process
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Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show, where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! 🎙️ Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! 🏡🌟 #TheBradWeismanShow #RealEstateRealLife
Credits - The music for my podcast was written and performed by Jeff Miller.
Here we go. From real estate to real life and everything in between the Brad Wiseman Show and now your host, brad Wiseman. All right, we're back. We are back. Whether you like it or not, we're like a dirty penny. You know, we just keep coming back, keep coming back. Yeah, so we're going to talk real estate today, something a little different for us. We don't always talk real estate, but of course, once a month you know who's here in the hot seat is Pete Heim, and he's here to talk some real estate with us.
Speaker 2:So Pete how you doing buddy, Speaking of dirty pennies.
Speaker 1:Yeah, speaking of dirty pennies, Just dirty period.
Speaker 2:Just dirty period. Good to see you, man.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you too. It seems like it's been longer than a month, right, it feels that way.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's weird, but it has been. It's been a month, right. A month, right, hugo, that's right.
Speaker 3:Yeah, Hugo knows.
Speaker 1:Yeah. So what are you seeing going on as overall? I mean, now 2024 is in the rear view mirror, we're now in February and weather sucks, yep, but we're in February. But what are you seeing? I mean, are you seeing any signs of spring market? Are you seeing more listings? Are you seeing more buyers? What are you seeing?
Speaker 2:I see seasonality.
Speaker 1:Seasonality.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think we're coming back.
Speaker 1:And also, do you think that's because of just the market is doing that, or do you think it's because we actually have a winter?
Speaker 2:No, you think it's because we actually have a winter.
Speaker 3:No, I think it's because we actually have a winter, yeah, which we haven't had exactly what?
Speaker 1:four or five years. It's been a while. Yeah, it's been a while, since we've actually, you know, and you know how I always like we have not seen green grass for a while. Yeah, and, and, and the last couple winters we've actually had green grass. We've we've had like a, a sustaining of of of fall, yeah, uh, and, and then it just went right into spring.
Speaker 2:So this year we're having a winter, we're actually having appointments set up and then canceled again.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and, by the way, we're in the Northeast here, in case anybody's listening and doesn't know where we are, we're Northeast, we're in Pennsylvania and we're in the Southeast Central part of Pennsylvania and we have a winter this year we have a winter winter.
Speaker 2:This year we have a winter. Yeah so yeah. But now we're back to actives.
Speaker 1:Again, we're at 360. Yeah, 359, by the way Just check five minutes ago.
Speaker 2:Oh, okay, well, that was your update, we lost one which? Tells me about pendings. Yeah, no 359, 360.
Speaker 1:But it's hovering in that area it is. We'd like it to get back up to the 400 range if we could Right, but I thought for today.
Speaker 2:I thought it'd be nice to compare the two Januaries. Oh, good idea. I had 2024 versus 2025 January which is interesting. What do you got? Do you know why I love just looking at January? Because it's easier on me to. There's been 291 listings so far this year.
Speaker 1:Oh, got it, so yeah. So it's just this month, that month, that's it.
Speaker 2:So when I have to do February, it's like, oh, I'm all messed up.
Speaker 1:Yeah, right, so it's 291 listings, that's it.
Speaker 2:There's 291 listings so far this year, but our total at that moment was 358. Now you said there's 359 active Right yeah. But that within minutes. That changes right, of course. So we're at 291, at 358 is for the month of january. January of 24, we had 279 listings oh interesting which is a few less.
Speaker 1:Yeah, a few, yes, which went 333 total. Okay, well, still a few, that's less.
Speaker 2:So it is trending upwards very slowly, but it's, it's trending. Yeah, it's amazing. I think that's an indication of what's coming.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I think so too, and we're starting to see I don't know if we're we're starting to see some of the buyers. For me, the quality of the financials of the buyers is definitely changing. We've talked about this before and then everybody said, like Hugo asked me before we went live why is that? Why is it changing? Why are the buyers needing, maybe, a seller assist, or they're just not as qualified as they've been in the past three years, and I don't know if it's because the good buyers have already bought Part of it, or is it because those buyers are now out there going look, I'm going to grab onto something now, when maybe there's not as much competition out there?
Speaker 2:That's right, and it's a good time to do that right now.
Speaker 1:Yeah, exactly. So it's interesting, and I think it's both, brad, I think it's both. Yeah, I think so too, and I and I still wonder do we have a lot of buyers in the sidelines that are waiting for this um, um, this, this um pot? You know, like, uh, what they call? It's not pot, what the hell? That didn't sound good, did it? Well, this show is going to pot, I'll tell you, holy shit. No, but the, the um, what do they call it? Like the gold coins at the end of the rainbow, like I think people are waiting for the rates to come down. Pot of gold, yeah, yeah, that's it, pot of gold, not just pot. Holy crap, you can tell we don't edit this show.
Speaker 2:Oh, my God.
Speaker 1:Just make it TH, get thc instead. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, I use it for my back actually. Um, but the no, but seriously, there's the pot of gold, thank you. Yeah, and the pot of gold would be that they're looking for that, thinking the rates are going to come down, yeah, and I think there's buyers on the sidelines I don't think that I do so too.
Speaker 2:Yeah, but it's, we're at seven, right?
Speaker 1:or seven percent. A little bit under seven percent, yeah, a little bit under you know it's.
Speaker 2:it goes back to like we you shouldn't do that. You shouldn't buy or sell based on an interest rate. You do it when you need to Speaking of that?
Speaker 1:have you heard the rumble? Yeah, I'm starting to hear that they don't think the rates are going to go down much this year Because of the Fed thing, I think so, even though we try to say that the Fed rate does not directly affect it, but it indirectly affects it.
Speaker 1:It does directly affect it, right, but it indirectly affects it, does it's so, yeah, so I think they're saying now that the rates are probably they were saying before like high fives by the end of the year, they're saying pretty much it's going to be hovering around six and a half the whole year, yep, so don't wait, I'm feeling that.
Speaker 2:Yeah too. Yeah, I know you are yep um hey. But going back to january versus january absorption, it's interesting. Absorption is up 0.1, which it doesn't sound like a lot, but last year it was one month.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:This year it's 1.1 months, so that means they're hanging on a little bit longer, especially the higher price stuff. The higher price stuff is really taking longer.
Speaker 1:And what's that? Because of rate, because, of rate. What that did? The rate has taken more high-end buyers out of the market it has yeah and there's less of them, yeah, so that's why um pending sales are down.
Speaker 2:Last year was 272, this year it's 267. Interesting for the month of january because we, I think, because we have a winner yeah, I think so, I I totally think that's so sold, you're about the same. We're 232 this month and last year this time it was 23. Sold are about the same. We're 232 this month and last year this time it was 236. That's about the same. Yeah, it's pretty much Average sold price.
Speaker 1:What's that? I'm interested to hear this number.
Speaker 2:Last year it was 278,137. This year it's 301,345. Wow, that's 8.3% increase month over month.
Speaker 1:Wow.
Speaker 2:Well, year over year Year over year, year over year. The first month year over year.
Speaker 1:Yeah got you. That's crazy, that's a lot.
Speaker 2:That's January. That's a lot. That's a lot. 8% is a lot, because we were at 5.85% total last year. Wow, so that's a lot.
Speaker 1:That's not what. Whole lot of change, yeah.
Speaker 2:No, but what's interesting about that? If you look nationally, there's a lot of change.
Speaker 1:There is a lot of change. There's a lot of change. There are people talking about expired listings. They're talking about, you know, the second agent that gets it. What's the percentage of the of of decrease in price, when the second agent we don't? We're not having that conversation yet.
Speaker 2:No, and I don't think we're going to. I checked the expired listing thing at the at the beginning of the year.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I thought you know expired listing, by the way, just so everybody knows what that means. That is basically. No, we talk about this stuff. It doesn't mean the house blew up or that it died. No, you're the house expired. No, what it means is that the it was listed for a certain amount of time, that it was listed for a certain amount of time typically four to six to maybe a year long or whatever it is and that agent wasn't able to get the job done for whatever reason, and now they're going to a different agent, or they might go to a different agent. Yeah, depends, yeah.
Speaker 2:So I checked it. There was out of 111 of them that were like on January 1, only 11 of those were actually listed with a realtor and they didn't relist with the same realtor or they just didn't do it, so 100 of them either went with the same guy or there were new construction models that had to be re-upped and stuff like that, and that plays part of it.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so there's really, in effect, 11 expired listings in a county that has, yeah, well, right, I mean, 360 listings. Yeah, but it's just, it's really small. Yeah, it's very small, very small, it's really small.
Speaker 1:It's a very small, very small. I remember that number used to be oh my God 60, 70, a hundred.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, sometimes yeah absolutely so.
Speaker 1:do you have anything else January? That's amazing. So the numbers really are not crazy. The only craziest numbers the appreciation number. Oh, bro.
Speaker 2:And this is where if is it worth 4% appreciation since 2019 statistic.
Speaker 1:No, is that for nation, nation?
Speaker 2:Wow, we were just under that. We were at 56.9 or something.
Speaker 1:From 2019 to now.
Speaker 2:Yeah, you've got 56% appreciation Nationally. What'd you say locally? 56.9 or something. It's close, holy crap. And then you ready. It's amazing. Since 1991, the year I got married. Okay, 321.6% appreciation. So what the stock?
Speaker 1:market do since then? Should I wait? I don't know. You should check into that. That's a really good question. We should look to see that right. Yeah, that's right. You would think Hugo would have those numbers, hugo, do you know that?
Speaker 3:No, no, I don't think it's that high, though I don't think it is either.
Speaker 1:No, I don't think it is. I mean, like we could ask Matt, I'll look at that Like.
Speaker 2:Matt might know and stuff. But you know, I don't know.
Speaker 1:That's a really good thing to know, let's look into that, maybe we'll do that next month. Next month, that's a good one to know, because it'd be interesting to see 1991. 1991. Wow, that's incredible.
Speaker 2:I'll look that up. Yeah, yeah, but I mean time in the market beats timing the market. For that reason, say it again so your time in the market, so once you get started in the market, beats timing the market. You're never going to time the market, you're not going to do it. It goes back to just get started. Yeah, you got to jump in. 2024 was 5.85% appreciation. They're saying it's going to be 3.78 this year. Following year is 3.6. The following year is 3.7. The following year is four. The following year is a little over four. So if you bought a $400,000 house in in, you know five, in 2024, your house is going to be worth 483,000 six years later. Wow, that's amazing. So that's what that means. So should you start? Yeah, I think you should start.
Speaker 1:Well, that's like I keep telling anybody that I come across with buyers. I'm like this isn't going to change, there's not going to be some cliff. We're not racing to some cliff right now. You know, the cliff is so far out in advance, in fact, I don't even know if it's there. I mean, it's funny because I just think that people feel that 2008 is going to happen again, and why they would want it to happen again, I don't know. But you know, that was a huge, huge deal and it was a once in a lifetime. I think that happened.
Speaker 2:It won't, it won deal, and it was a once in a lifetime, I think that happened. It won't it won't Because it was a lending crisis. It was, that's right. It was not a house crisis. It's just that the lending part was attached to houses. Yep, it was a lending problem. Yeah, absolutely, and they fixed it.
Speaker 3:Yeah that's fixed.
Speaker 2:They went back to the higher regulations and stuff like that on making sure a person can actually afford it not not loaning 103 of the price. Yeah, I mean all that's gone and I'm still hearing.
Speaker 1:Oh my gosh, I just heard a, a podcast. It was a podcast. It was a guy that was like talking on on like a live thing on on facebook and he was talking about, um, you know, the black rock buying up all these properties. I, I just, I just don't. I don't know where that comes from, I don't know. I, I mean, I, we have you sold one house to black rock, it's, it's not, it's. I mean, I don't know if it's happening in new york city or philadelphia.
Speaker 2:It's happening, but I don't think it's happening on the scale they're saying it's happening. What was the 87 of the investments are mom and pops. Yeah, the rest of them are corporate, and corporate doesn't even mean black rock no, it just means like, like dana or not dana, oh my god dana.
Speaker 1:Oh my gosh, dude, you're dating yourself. Dana has been gone, has out of the business. For how long? Stop. And actually hugo thought it was some chick. You were dating back before you met michelle. It's like dana. Does michelle know about dana that?
Speaker 2:was an old truck body corporate. Yeah, anyway, carpenter, carpenter, they, they buy houses for people transferring in and out. Yeah, yeah, that includes that number, that's 17 or 13 of whatever. So, and then black right lock, and those big ones are like what point one?
Speaker 1:yeah, one percent. It's not affecting the market. Let's put it that way.
Speaker 2:No, it's not affecting the market and you said it before and we've had rates forever but it's housing for people, it's creating housing. Anyway, you're still renting.
Speaker 1:I know it's not like, it's like it's not like it's taking it off the market, right. If they, if, if somebody was buying the property and just holding it and not letting anybody live in it, yeah, it would cause a problem, right. But if they even bought 10 of the properties, right, and there was renters in there, what's the deal? What? Who cares, brad, you still have somewhere somewhere to live.
Speaker 2:I think back way back when, when Carpenter had their corporate relocation.
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah, and human resources did.
Speaker 2:They were buying homes. I know that you know what. Since then, I have never and maybe you haven't ever been in competition with a black rock or anything like that, with people who are trying to buy a home here locally. Never happened now it's my.
Speaker 1:It might be happening somewhere else, but we're all at some of the big cities. It might be happening, but it's not here.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I, I think, I think that uh I have a hard time believing it's even happening there. Yeah, on a great scale.
Speaker 1:I do too, but I just can't.
Speaker 2:I can't talk to it saying it's definitely not right, we can't, can't, we know here it's not happening, right, exactly. Yeah, it's amazing, yep. So what do you got? So I got. So we just keep talking until we forgot what we're going to talk about I have a question?
Speaker 3:Oh, that's right, that's right. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Okay, so I checked, like that. It showed me a graph that I needed to reach 20% to get rid of my PMI. And now I just checked recently, like a week ago, and now I moved to 25%. But I wonder you know if that was a law or if it was just depending on the lender that can do that.
Speaker 1:Well, I think we talked about that. You definitely want to check your paperwork or find out what that's about. But I think one of the things too is that they're basically saying that if you wait and don't reappraise it or don't check into the value and you just wait until by paying your monthly payment every month, there's principal coming off. And that number they're talking about right there, I believe, is that if you don't do anything and you just pay your payment at a certain point you're going to come to 20% of equity or whatever it is, or 25% of equity, at that point it automatically comes off. Now, fha, it doesn't PMI for conventional, it comes off.
Speaker 1:But if you want to and this is what I think most people forget is that with our market, the way it's going, or still going, and your, your numbers prove that the numbers are still going up. If you bought here, value goes up, principle goes down, value goes up, principle goes down. When that gap gets to 20% and you have an appraisal that proves that you're have that 20% gap, then you should send it into the bank and they're going to. Then they'll remove the PMI. Now don't go out. And we were saying, dude, don't go out and just pay $500 or whatever it is, for an appraiser. Talk to Pete, talk to me, talk to your realtor whoever you use as a realtor and say, hey, can you tell me if the values make sense for me to go spend the $500 for an appraisal?
Speaker 3:Yeah, Is that what people fail? They just check on Zillow and they think that their house is like Don't use Zillow, don't use Zillow, zillow is generally 8% to 12% off.
Speaker 1:High too high, yeah, generally, generally 8% to 12% too high. So don't spend the $500 based on that estimate. I actually had some low ones last year, oh really.
Speaker 2:Yeah, but no, that's a good point.
Speaker 1:Don't use those.
Speaker 2:Have the professional come in and look at it.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and a realtor's not going to charge. I mean, if it's a realtor you worked with. I mean I can't speak for everybody, but I know, pete and I, anytime you need to know the value of your house, let us know and we'll do it. It's a service we provide without having for you to pay for it.
Speaker 2:I always tell people Zillow has never been in your house. That's true. You got to get in to see what their house.
Speaker 3:Is that's true? That's a good point, because that's why I pray.
Speaker 2:Just go through homes, yeah, okay.
Speaker 1:That's right. Yeah, and I'll tell you. What's interesting about that comment is how many times, pete, have you done the comps ahead of time on a house? Yeah, and then you get in and the place is like like a mess and you're like, oh boy, those comps aren't going to work.
Speaker 2:I'm wrong, yeah, I'm wrong.
Speaker 1:So all of a sudden in your head, that number of 250 or 300 is now not even close to that. Because they're not tidy, right they're not.
Speaker 3:The house doesn't look good.
Speaker 1:Whoops, yeah, whoops. That's what Zillow is trying to do every time, yeah.
Speaker 2:Does that answer your question? Yes, it does. Anyway, think about it. Your PMI is probably 50, 60 bucks a month of your payment, maybe 70? I don't know.
Speaker 3:I think like 60-something.
Speaker 2:Okay, so your recovery rate on paying for an appraisal will be nine months. Yeah, that's right yeah true, so it's well worth it if you're going to stay in the house. Good point, very good point.
Speaker 1:Very good, just got to look at that stuff. It's interesting. And remember, with with FHA, it is not removable unless you refinance, and I maybe that's what you were thinking of, Hugo If you're an FHA and you have the, you have that monthly fee which is the uh, like a, like a PMI, right? It's basically that you that doesn't get removed at 20% or 25% or 40%, you have to refinance into a conventional that's right.
Speaker 2:And FHA? It's backed by the government. That's all it is.
Speaker 1:So this was an interesting 2025 is poised to continue the trend of rising inventory across the country. We'll probably finish 2025 with 15% more homes available than we have now. Now, that's a national number. It's by Altos Research from Keeping Current Matters. That could be true. Yeah, I mean that could be true. Yeah, I mean that would be really awesome. Yeah, I mean, I mean, for us, if we are let's just say we're at 400 homes 10, 40, so 20, you'd be 60 homes more. That's not bad, that's about right.
Speaker 1:I would take that maybe yeah, so we'd be at 460 475 right, we're still.
Speaker 2:We're still in that interest rate freeze thing. Yeah, we really are. Yep, I mean, I come across it almost every day. I got my three and a half man.
Speaker 1:I don't want to go to seven. Eventually, though, they're going to move.
Speaker 2:It will, because when you're going to move, yeah, and that's the thing.
Speaker 1:Unfortunately, as some of those people are saying, they're not moving because of the rate, but if they have health things that eventually they need to be on one floor or need to move to Florida or Arizona to be in better conditions, then they're going to have to move.
Speaker 2:And two, when the house starts to go up in value, right, and you keep paying down on that three and a half percent mortgage and you get more principal going, you're getting a bigger gap that if you dump it on another one, that you have to get a smaller loan at 7%. Sometimes your payment might be close to the same yeah.
Speaker 1:Depending on what that Plus when you also, as you're paying on that mortgage, you're paying less and less interest. That's right, so the tax savings might play as a part also If you play that in. Exactly. You put that into the end of the equation 20, 30%, depending on where you're at. Yep, yeah, so those Yep, yeah, so you know, those are the numbers. You have to look at the whole big picture.
Speaker 3:The whole big picture Good point.
Speaker 2:Yeah so anything else.
Speaker 1:I'm going to take a see if I have anything else in here. No, I'd just like to keep talking about it until we figure out what we're going to say yeah, this is all scripted, All scripted. We rehearsed this 16 times today. This was interesting. What are the most difficult steps of the home buying process? They asked buyers and all buyers. And then they asked first-time buyers and, what was interesting, first-time buyers said 13% was getting a mortgage. One of the difficult steps oh really, Wow.
Speaker 1:And finding the right house was the number one problem for both first-time buyers and all buyers.
Speaker 2:No kidding.
Speaker 1:It was, yeah, 55% and 53% Paperwork. First-time buyers were scared of the paperwork.
Speaker 3:No kidding.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that was a difficult step and understanding the process and steps. This is good for realtors to hear this.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1:Because this just shows you that we really need to educate yeah.
Speaker 2:They're scared.
Speaker 1:They are. They're scared about what they're getting into.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's a large purchase.
Speaker 1:Right Appraisal of the property. 6% of first-time buyers were concerned All buyers 13%. You know why all buyers 13%? Because they probably had a property they didn't appraise before and now they're scared shitless, oh no, yeah, exactly. And then saving for the down payment First-time buyers 32%, 32. All buyers 12% because they have equity.
Speaker 2:Oh, because they have equity.
Speaker 1:Yeah, isn't that funny. That's a great point. Yeah, so first-time buyers have a lot more to worry about, or they're definitely more difficult steps of the home buying process with a first-time buyer.
Speaker 2:Sure, and it's understandable, right, yeah?
Speaker 1:Yeah, I don't really have anything else, I think just, you know, it's going to be interesting to see where this year goes. I think locally, when our weather starts to turn, we are going to see more homes go on the market. I have a bunch of listings coming up that I'm working on, stuff that's coming up later in the, you know, this winter and into spring. So it'll be interesting to see where things go. But I think it's going to be a good year.
Speaker 3:I think it is I think it's going to be a good year. It's going to be great. Where are you going to get your wife for Thanksgiving?
Speaker 1:Thanksgiving Turkey. I'm going to get her a turkey. Yeah, for Thanksgiving he usually gets her a turkey.
Speaker 2:He's really ahead of time.
Speaker 1:Does she really love Paula?
Speaker 2:Deen's sweet potatoes.
Speaker 3:No. With Valentine's, what are you going to do for your girl?
Speaker 1:Well, actually, jess and I are going to be going to dinner Valentine's the day after. We're going down to the Toast in the City of Maryland and we're going to have a nice dinner down there.
Speaker 2:Just the two of us there you go, just the two of us. So is your house available for a date if I take my wife home with me?
Speaker 1:Yeah, if you like, don't mind the kids, we'll bring treats. Good, good stuff, good stuff. Well, thanks so much for listening. I mean we always have a good time at Pete here. Hopefully you learned something about the market, both locally and nationally. And thanks also to the show Every Thursday at 7 pm. We got, don't forget, we have great sponsors. We have First Response Contracting John Sellers at 484-256-7136. And Comfort Pro. They can do all of your HVac needs and duck cleaning and all kinds of underwear quality. 610 477-5512. And I'm gonna have a new spot, a new thing coming up that I'm gonna be talking about. It's called pro glow and we'll get into that sometime soon. They'll be here as a guest. They were on shark tank and you'll be seeing them hopefully in march. They'll be on the show. All right, that's about it. Thanks for being here every thursday, 7 pm. We'll see you next week.
