Debunking the Recession Myth in Regard to Home Values!

Diving deep into the often misunderstood real estate landscape, Pete Heim and Brad Weisman separate fact from fiction about our current housing market. This eye-opening conversation tackles the persistent confusion between today's inventory crisis and the 2008 financial meltdown, providing clarity with hard data rather than social media panic.

Discover why the mid-Atlantic region continues to outperform the rest of the country with a 0.8% value increase while western markets decline. The hosts unpack fascinating statistics about pricing strategy, revealing that homes sell for 100% of asking price in the first four weeks, but only 94% after 17+ weeks on market – making a compelling case for accurate pricing from day one.

Perhaps most compelling is their breakdown of how housing has performed through six past recessions, with values increasing in four of them, decisively debunking the myth that economic downturns automatically mean falling home prices. The episode also explores encouraging trends in the Home Demand Index (rising from 65 to 71) and interest rates declining faster than forecasted.

For baby boomers sitting on substantial equity and millennials eager to enter the market, this episode provides practical insights on timing and strategy. Whether you're buying, selling, or simply trying to understand market dynamics, this data-driven conversation cuts through the noise with expert analysis and actionable information.

Ready to make smarter real estate decisions? Listen now to gain the knowledge advantage in today's complex housing environment.

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Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show, where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! 🎙️ Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! 🏡🌟 #TheBradWeismanShow #RealEstateRealLife 

Credits - The music for my podcast was written and performed by Jeff Miller. 

Transcript

Speaker 1 0:34

from real estate affects the market as a whole, which then sometimes will affect the right. You know the real life we all learn in different ways. If you think about it, wayne dyer might not attract everybody and everything in between mission was really to help people just to reach their full potential the brad weisman and now your host, Brad Wiseman.

Speaker 1 0:57

All right, we're back Thursday 7 pm, like we always are. Yeah, we are back, and we're going to talk about real estate today, because it is the week that Pete Heim is in the studio with us. Pete, how are you doing, good brother, how are you doing, man, I'm doing great Good Doing great.

Speaker 2 1:14

I'm still hearing voices in my you're still.

Speaker 1 1:15

You're still hearing voices from the intro. I'm not used to it yet I'll get used to it. Yeah, that's why you're old. Yeah, I have a little skin.

Speaker 2 1:21

Yeah, when I hear that I go oh my god, this is, this is your age, when they, when you hear voices in your head.

Speaker 1 1:26

It's starting to get to the end. Yeah, it's gonna be at the end. We'll take you out into a field like a horse, like like a broken leg on a horse. Yeah, exactly, all right, it's all right it's okay, we'll find somebody else to fill your shoes.

Speaker 2 1:40

I can think of a better place to die like? Right here, in a field, right, right here. That would be, that would be dramatic, I'll tell you what hugo would help the ratings?

Speaker 1 1:49

that's right, I think it would go viral. I think it would go viral. So yeah, so real estate is still going. We're still here, yeah, um, there's. There's not a whole lot different than there was last month. We're just kind of chugging along. It's kind of a we are yeah it's kind of interesting you know, I think our inventory is still extremely low, right, but this is um also in this area, we're, we're, we're definitely lower than anybody else. We are.

Speaker 2 2:17

Oh yeah, talk around, I mean even surrounding counties and stuff. Yeah, some of them are a little higher now than us, we don't have the new construction.

Speaker 1 2:24

I mean, that's just plain and simple, that's it.

Speaker 2 2:26

My mother-in-law sent me an article. I should have probably read the whole article. I'm a headline reader. Yeah, I. I think it was only 1.3 million units short as a nation. Is that does that sound right?

Speaker 1 2:36

That sounds about right, or was it?

Speaker 2 2:37

only 1.3 million, and then the normal was 4 million or something. It's more than 1.3 million, it's more than that. I think that was what it was only 1.3 built. We should have 4.4 as a nation.

Speaker 1 2:47

I think that's what it was.

Speaker 2 2:48

That's probably what it was.

Speaker 1 2:57

And so that's weighted towards our area. Because if you look at actually we'll just go into this right away is, um, if you look at the areas that are doing well, uh, as far as appreciation even at this is, as of december 24, december of 24, they're showing here that the mid-atlantic is one of the best performers of all the areas, the regions in the United States. That's us, exactly, basically, what it's saying is what it is. If you look at this little chart here, it just kind of shows that South Atlantic is 0.3%. Mid-atlantic, which would be us, is up 0.8%. New England states are up 0.5%. These values are up. East, south, central. New England states are up 0.5%. These are values are up East, south, central, east north central. So all the east side is up, that's us. And then you look at west, north, central, west south they're down, they're down. Yeah, look at mountain.

Speaker 2 3:47

Mountain. Wow, 1.4% increase. Now give me that region. Where's mountain? Is it Appalachian, I would think?

Speaker 1 3:51

it's like Colorado Utah you know that area?

Speaker 2 3:55

I would think so Okay, Got it.

Speaker 1 3:56

Yeah, pacific was uh cause marijuana is legal.

Speaker 2 4:00

That's probably why.

Speaker 1 4:01

Yeah, everything's going higher.

Speaker 2 4:05

Even the people you stole my joke.

Speaker 1 4:06

Yeah, I was like what are you going to say? Yeah, oh man.

Speaker 2 4:11

Yeah, you're not going to get good jokes here. They're going to get good jokes here. They're going to always be dad jokes, always dad jokes. Yes.

Speaker 1 4:15

So that's what's going on. So it just shows you that the reason that the prices are still going up on the East Coast or in our region here is because lack of inventory. That's it. Yeah, we just don't have the inventory, no, which is kind of annoying. Right, it is annoying. I did do a demand index thing which we can talk about when we're through this pricing stuff. But, yeah, it's really good to see that our region's really attractive and people are wanting it. But within our local area here we're also seeing even though there's only 320 homes in the market right now we're also seeing price reductions. We are, and that is really wild, but they're selling that they are.

Speaker 2 4:54

I have stats on that today.

Speaker 1 4:56

Thank you, thank you very much for even bringing that up. Well then, go ahead. I kind of brought it up this wasn't actually even folks.

Speaker 2 5:00

I just want you to know we did not talk about this ahead of time. No, we did not. This is something that we just it's like on our minds, yep, always All the time that Brad's a broker.

Speaker 1 5:08

We're both brokers now. That's right. I did pass my brokers yesterday 30 years, but you're good. Hugo, you want to talk about a slow learner, jesus Mighty.

Speaker 2 5:22

So what are you able to do now?

Speaker 1 5:24

Nothing, nothing. Actually, I can give more advice, I guess, as an associate broker.

Speaker 2 5:31

You can own your own company, I can own my own company.

Speaker 1 5:36

It doesn't do much. No, it doesn't do too much. I can sign escrow checks. You can. Yes, I can sign an escrow check, oh good. Which is good, which doesn't really mean much to you.

Speaker 2 5:44

He's like so what Well, we were joking that most brokers are broker than normal.

Speaker 1 5:48

Yeah, that's what it is. That's exactly it.

Speaker 2 5:52

There's a lot of other things that you must attend to.

Speaker 1 5:54

It was more of a personal thing of just doing it Right sure. Because I've had so many times where people are like you don't have your brokers, you don't have your brokers. You've been doing this for 30 years. You don't have your brokers. Yet I'm like you know what?

Speaker 2 6:09

I don't want to hear that anymore. So you know how you. You didn't have a dad making you do it.

Speaker 1 6:13

No, I did not, like I did back in my early career. Yeah, no, not at all. So what numbers you got there?

Speaker 2 6:17

So the price cuts we're talking about price cuts coming back to normal again. Yeah, and this is just the Februaries. This is just to give you a brief snapshot February of 2017, there were 268,000. This is national, by the way. 268,584 price cuts when we were listing, they dropped the price a little bit 19,. It was 285, that was the highest 285,000 and change.

Speaker 1 6:48

In 2022, 64,958.

First Four Weeks: The Golden Window

Speaker 2 6:50

Is that a crazy? That is crazy and that's nationwide, nationwide. So this February, this February we're at 26bruary 262, 262, 330, which is getting back up to that normal pre-covid unreasonable sellers. It is unreasonable sell so that the point is you can still overprice your home absolutely and the dangers of that are it could backfire.

Speaker 2 7:10

buyers might not even bother. Yep right, they could sit longer on the market, which we're going to talk about in a minute, might wind up getting less for the house. Absolutely Okay, those are the things. So the median percentage of asking price to sold price nationally, the first one, two, three, four weeks of a listing, you're still getting a hundred percent.

Speaker 1 7:32

Okay, so that means it's priced right.

Speaker 2 7:34

It's priced right. Yeah, it's priced right, but there could be some people getting 110%, so what?

Speaker 1 7:37

you're saying is so we can break this down a little bit is what you're saying is that you're looking at list price Yep and you're saying that the ones that are 100% of list price, that means they're getting full price. Full price within the first four weeks.

Speaker 2 7:52

Yep. So first week, second, third, all the first four weeks.

Speaker 1 7:54

So after 30 days, what happens?

Speaker 2 7:57

So five to eight weeks it drops to 98. Isn't that something?

Speaker 1 8:00

Pretty interesting right.

Speaker 2 8:01

We always used to say your biggest action is in the first three.

Speaker 1 8:03

To four weeks, dude. It's been like that since we got in the business, ever since the Earth's core. Yes, yes.

Speaker 2 8:07

Yeah. And then nine to 16 weeks, it 96 percent interesting and then 17 plus, it's 94 percent. There's your case where you're gonna get less. Yeah, you know absolutely well what happens. This is a median number, by the way. Yeah, it's a median percentage. You remember, I don't like median, neither do I, but, but that's what it is. You know, you take the high and the low away and you got the guy in the middle. Yep, that's like that whole dime example we do.

Speaker 2 8:33

But you know, but it's, but that's what the stat we got. So it's pretty encouraging. And I looked up locally because that was national and, god bless Michelle, I walked out without picking it up and she took a quick snap for me. I went back a year, okay, okay, and in March of 24, list meeting was $259,900. Sold meeting was $255,000. Okay, okay, and then it goes, it's, and then it goes $280 to $254 in February. That's why that February number was off. Right, because that's a big price reduction month.

Speaker 1 9:07

Yeah, it just naturally it's just in that way Because of the winter.

Speaker 2 9:10

Yep, but here's the thing In March of this year, so far, list is 275. Sold is 275. Oh, okay, yeah, yeah, $259,950. Last month, $260. Yeah, $50 more, yeah, okay, and then the month before that, $279,950, $280. Yeah, we're hovering around 100% right now yeah, right.

Speaker 2 9:36

Yeah. So that basically means if you price your property Correctly, properly, using an agent who knows what they're doing and not Zillow I'm going to say it again you will get 100% of what you're asking, or more or more, within the first four weeks of the listing. But you've got to do it properly up front. You've got to do it up front.

Speaker 1 9:54

Yeah, I mean and it's not rocket science Just go by whatever the values have been that are sold. Yeah, you know, just hang around that price and you should be fine, that's it, you know. Or even if you go a little lower, sometimes you're even better off, because then you get multiple offers, you know. So we're not having any problems with that. But what's happening is, though, people are overpricing and and you know, what I found too.

Speaker 1 10:16

another thing that that I've really noticed showing houses to buyers right now and losing offers and those kinds of things the quality of the homes are just not as they're wanting. That's the thing too. It's not that there's so much that they're wanting, not so much that they're overpricing the property. They're pricing them right, but their condition is under where it needs to be for that price. Yeah.

Speaker 2 10:41

Yeah.

Recession vs. Home Depreciation Myths

Speaker 1 10:41

So that's one of the things that I'm finding too, because some of these houses are just a condition and you sit there and you go. Well, how are these people showing this home like this? Yeah, and then it's amazing Is you? Within a week, it's off the market. Then it ticks you off. What are you smiling at, Laughing over there? No, it wasn't. Look, there was dog poop in the house or anything. But the houses are just not that great. I mean, they need painting and they need all that stuff.

Speaker 2 11:07

Well, price, condition, location, all three have to match right, yep, and so that price and condition don't seem to be meaning much right now. And you're right, yeah, it might take a little longer, yep, but you're going to get it. You're going to get it.

Speaker 1 11:22

And you might even get it really close to full which is yeah, and I think you will absolutely, absolutely, yeah.

Speaker 1 11:26

So you know, I'm hearing a lot again about this and we've we've beat this to death, I think, over the past year. I know hugo is going to be like, oh, they're bringing that up again, um, but no, I am seeing this again on the on on social media of people just going into this panic mode. Oh of the, the sky is falling that. Oh my gosh, with the rates where they've been, this country is going to have it worse than 2008. We're going to see foreclosures all over the place. You just wait and see and they're scaring people from buying or selling, more so than anything, and they just don't. They're just not getting it. It is not. We are not in that situation now and I even go back and I end up arguing, not arguing. Since I argue, I can respond with facts and figures and an opinion of what I think it's going to be, and I just think people just feel they're getting this bad information.

Speaker 2 12:20

They're confusing the financial crisis that we went through in 08, which was attached to real estate, to an inventory crisis that we have right now, and they are completely two different crises, yeah.

Speaker 1 12:31

Well, the problem before was it was attached to mortgages. That's right. Financing. It was attached to financing. It was attached to real estate. Yeah, to real estate 100% 100%. Yep.

Speaker 2 12:39

Yep, it was that Loan them 103, 3% of the value. It started in 1998. And I forget my dad. My dad who's been an expert, yep. It passed in Congress in 98. My dad was just starting to retire and he says give it 10 years, it's going to crash. And it did. It did 2008.

Speaker 1 12:56

And he called it.

Speaker 2 12:56

And it crashed in 10 years later.

Speaker 1 12:57

Maybe we should have him in here for this podcast. No, you probably should. Hey, he sounds like he knows a hell of a lot more than you do, jesus.

Speaker 2 13:03

You don't know where I get my information from.

Speaker 1 13:05

From your dad. Is that all your dad's?

Speaker 2 13:07

information.

Speaker 1 13:13

And then Chris gets it from me.

Speaker 2 13:13

Well, I get mine from the eight ball, so it can't be any better.

Speaker 1 13:16

It's a red one too. It's a red one, That'd be sharp.

Speaker 2 13:18

Those are the ones that are right. That's right, those are the right ones.

Speaker 1 13:22

Oh my God. But yeah, so interestingly enough, this is what we want to. I want to bring this up again. Yeah, is that through the last six recessions? Okay, people also confused recession with depreciation of home value. That's right. Okay, that is not always the case. In fact, out of the last six recessions, only two of them one was 2008. That was an anomaly. Saw a lowering of values of homes. So recession 1980, prices of houses went up 6.1% 1981, 3.5% 1991, another recession only went down 1.9% 2001,. Small recession went up 6.6% values. Now, this is the one that is the anomaly here 2008, recession, whatever. We lost almost 20% in value. Oh yeah.

Speaker 2 14:15

Yeah.

Speaker 1 14:16

It took like three years to get out of it. And then 2020, we had a small recession again because of COVID and values went up 6% that year. So just because if we would, you know if we would go into recession, that does not automatically mean we're going to lose a value, and even if we do lose one or 2%, I think it's okay. We've gained how much? Right, exactly, yeah, it's amazing.

Speaker 2 14:40

That's a good point.

Speaker 1 14:40

Yeah, I just like to show, because I think what happens is people hear recession, recession, recession, and and it doesn't always mean that that's going to be a bad thing I mean we've been in recessions and only people don't even know it. Right, you know? It's kind of like once you know it, you're already through it. Yeah, that's it. What is it? Two quarters of negative GDP, gdp, yeah, yeah, which really?

Speaker 2 15:01

doesn't mean a lot. It doesn't mean much. It doesn't mean much. It really hasn't affected us. No, no, it really hasn't In real estate.

Speaker 1 15:07

it doesn't really affect us. It's not like we're a short point. We created, though, in 2008, we created the recession. Oh yeah, we did yes we did.

Speaker 2 15:14

That's what's so funny about that. Congress did Yep. We created that Yep was going to buy a house yeah, I remember. I remember even the speeches. Oh yeah, we're going to make sure everyone's going to own a house. That's not the way to do it.

Speaker 1 15:29

You can't do it. You gotta be prepared. Yeah, you gotta qualify, yeah. Yeah, it should be merit-based like everything else.

Speaker 2 15:34

Remember those yeah, those, uh. Hey, we'll give you a loan. Don't worry about giving me any information.

Home Demand Index Rising

Speaker 1 15:39

You know, I totally remember that. Oh my gosh what, yeah it, yeah, it's crazy, it's crazy. So what else you got?

Speaker 2 15:45

Hey, well, I did a home demand index evaluation of our region. Unfortunately, a trend doesn't. I keep calling it a trend. I know what you meant, right, right, yeah, doesn't do Burke County on this type of they do region, they do region on this type of. And home demand is important because I think as we come into the season it's going up, and sure enough, even though right now in the Philly region, which we are, it's 71.

Speaker 2 16:13

Now the higher it goes towards 100, the better, the more demand there is. Right, exactly. So. 71 is considered slow. However, last month it was 65. So it's better. We're at 71. It's good, it's increasing. The prior year this time was 77. Okay, okay, I attribute that to what we just spoke about. The interest rate lock freeze yeah, it's still taking effect on us in the low inventory. Yeah, but the category single family, zero to 350, it's up, it's up. It's at 69.

Speaker 2 16:43

Okay, up to 65 from last year this time A 350 to 765, right, it's at 58, which is up from 55. Good, 765 plus is up From 41 to 51.

Speaker 1 16:57

That demand is up. Up there's a higher. That's amazing. That statistic is the highest. So the higher price range is up. The demand is up, higher the luxury market is higher in this region. Well, we are in the Philly region now.

Speaker 2 17:08

It's the Philly region.

Speaker 1 17:08

So 700 is not a lot.

Speaker 2 17:10

It's not Condos, actually, no, I lied, condos is 95. Wow, now remember if you get into the hundreds. You're, yep, it's affordable. Affordable, yeah, but this is the $0 to $412,000 condo market Right Is up 95 from 85. And the 412 plus condo market is 119 up from 99. Wow. So, people are moving. Wow, look at that. They're looking at condos, yeah. Well, and that's one of the things For a lot of different reasons, right?

Speaker 1 17:38

Hey, you know, if you want to buy in this market and you're having a hard time and you keep losing offers at $250 or $300, consider lowering your standards to a $250 home and offer a little bit more and be a stronger buyer in a lower price range. Exactly, if you're tapped out at $300, you're not going to look as good to the seller. But if you're at 250, if you start looking at 250 and you're approved to 300 and you have a little you have a little bit more money there and things like that you're going to look better to the seller.

Speaker 1 18:09

So you might, and here's the thing you're getting into the market.

Speaker 2 18:12

Then start there, yeah, and then four years.

Speaker 1 18:14

So now go buy the house that has everything you want.

Speaker 2 18:17

Yeah, and rent it maybe, or sell it Exactly Townhouse twins, all semis and townhouses, all prices up from 78 to 84.

Speaker 1 18:25

Yeah, so the demand is definitely going up. All of these are up.

Speaker 2 18:28

by the way, they're all. All of them are up. That's good, okay. So we're coming into a seasonal trend, I think, and the demand's up. So people are getting used to the six point.

Speaker 1 18:39

Well, that goes right into mine. Whatever you got, rates are declining faster than expected.

Speaker 2 18:45

Yeah, and we didn't rehearse this folks. No, we didn't. We didn't. I swear to God, we didn't. We probably should the show would be a hell of a lot better if we did.

Speaker 1 18:53

We always talk about how.

Speaker 2 18:54

I'm always late and all that.

Interest Rates Declining Faster Than Expected

Speaker 1 19:00

Yeah, maybe Besides my mom. Yeah, right, but no, what's? The interest rate Rates are declining faster than they expected. So basically, what it says here is we're at like 6.53. I'm looking oh, okay, no, I'm sorry. So right now it's at 6.7. Okay, they're saying quarter one forecast for 2025, which is now 6.97. Quarter one forecast for 2025, which is now 6.97. The forecast for quarter two is 6.87, 6.68 for quarter three and 6.53 for quarter four.

Speaker 2 19:29

6.63 right now yeah.

Speaker 1 19:31

So the rates are actually dropping faster than what they thought. And that also has to be, I think, because uh inflation is is getting in check.

Speaker 2 19:40

It is yeah inflation is getting in check to do with.

Speaker 1 19:42

Um, and you know, I think things are the banks are probably not lending as much money as they'd like to. Exactly, they got to lend money, right? Yep, they don't let money, they don't make money. Yeah, that it's got to be something going on, yep. So that was interesting too to see that. And and really, you know, if we get to low sixes, people should be jumping on that. I think they will. They should be jumping on that, and that's where I think sellers hopefully will start to put a sign in the yard and move and do what they need to do.

Speaker 2 20:08

There's a lot of people that I'm sure you are too consulting about selling the big house. Pull the equity, get the downsized house. Absolutely, they're just going to be so much better positioned to take that lower mortgage at a higher rate. Absolutely Probably not change their payment at all, maybe even lower. Yeah, that's, it's really all about the payment. Yeah, really, that's what it's about.

Speaker 1 20:28

And even if you have to, like I said before, even if you do have to pay 200 bucks a month more, but if you're living where the conditions that you maybe need minutes, first floor, all first floor living.

Speaker 2 20:40

Yeah.

Speaker 1 20:41

If you have to pay $200 more for that, then you got to pay $200 more. I mean, that's that's not much you can do about that, that's right. So, yeah, there was some numbers too about how the the um was. The millennials and and and baby boomers Like of them, own their homes without any mortgage Right, Free and clear. Yeah, so it'll be interesting. So what's going to happen is you're going to have the millennials buying the baby boomers homes at some point, but they got to move, Yep, so we're just going to have to tell baby boomers you need to just put a sign in front of your front yard.

Speaker 2 21:14

Let's just go. This is enough of this crap.

Speaker 1 21:16

Okay, we're done with it. You're getting older. Get your house up for sale. Is that a problem to talk like that?

Speaker 2 21:22

No, I don't think so no, I don't think so.

Episode Wrap-Up

Speaker 1 21:23

Come on, I don't think so. Of course my dad will be like that was offensive, that was offensive. I love it, oh my goodness. So, yeah, so anything else you? Have no, no.

Speaker 2 21:36

You're good. No, I'm good. Yes, all right, that sounds good. We were good today, right? I just want to say congratulations for your broker.

Speaker 1 21:43

Oh, thank you, bud. I appreciate that. I appreciate that. Yeah, you know it took a while, but I finally did it. Welcome to the club, yeah it's awesome, it's a good club. I don't feel any different.

Speaker 2 21:52

We reduced. Yeah, it's great, we'll give you a sticker.

Speaker 1 21:58

Just what I need a sticker, yeah okay, all right, that's it for this month for Pete. He's out of here and no, but thanks for checking in again. Thursdays at 7 pm Once a month. We do, pete, just to talk about some real estate. Check out the show every Thursday. We've got some great guests coming up. Lots of good people, people writing books, people that are motivational speakers, all that kind of stuff. Check it out. All right, that's about it. We'll see you next Thursday, 7 pm.