The Brad Weisman Show
Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show, where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! #TheBradWeisman #Show #RealEstateRealLife
The Brad Weisman Show
Beyond the Rate Obsession - The Market is Changing!
Hi This is Brad Weisman - Click Here to Send Me a Text Message
Brad and Pete Heim are back with all the NEW Stats for the Local, State and National home market. The real estate market shows clear signs of change with inventory increasing locally and even more so nationally, though still far below the amount of homes available during the 2008 crash. Regional differences across the US housing market reveal the Northeast maintaining a seller's market while the South experiences excess inventory and falling prices.
• Current housing inventory in Berks County at 524 listings compared to 4,400 in 2008
• Average days on market down to 16 in July from 33 in March
• Regional differences show Northeast at 44% below pre-pandemic inventory while Florida is 30% above
• Interest rate differences have minimal impact on monthly payments - only $132 difference between 7% and 6.5% on a $400k loan
• One in three Northeast properties still receiving multiple offers
• New construction remains limited in Berks County compared to surrounding areas in Pennsylvania
• Home sales projected to increase from 4 million in 2024 to 4.5 million by 2026
Join us for our special 250th episode on September 18th at 7pm!
#tbws250 #bradweisman #peteheim #homemarket #interestrates #thebradweismanshow
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Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show, where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! 🎙️ Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! 🏡🌟 #TheBradWeismanShow #RealEstateRealLife
Credits - The music for my podcast was written and performed by Jeff Miller.
from real estate affects the market as a whole, which then sometimes will affect the right. You know the real life we all learn in different ways. If you think about it, wayne dyer might not attract everybody and everything in between.
Speaker 2:The mission was really to help people just to reach their full potential the brad weisman and now your host.
Speaker 1:Brad Wiseman. All right, hugo, hello baby, what's up, buddy? How you doing? Mm-hmm, mm-hmm, you were telling some jokes.
Speaker 2:Yes, yeah, you're a good joke teller. I love jokes. Jokes are my favorite form of entertainment.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you're good at it too. You're really good at it too. You're really good at it. So you know what's interesting. We're going to be having a special show coming up. September 18th will be our 250th episode, so we're going to have a special treat for you guys. We're going to have a different show. It's going to be just Hugo and I, and then we'll kind of let you think about the rest and what's going to happen. But it's going to be fun. We're going to do a really nice show on september 18th, 7 pm. It will be a really nice show. All right, so we have back in the studio, here with us, the guy that just doesn't stay away, pete heim do you feel the?
Speaker 1:love, I feel, you feel it, you feel the love.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I'm gonna go back to you can to talking about jokes. I mean, have you been seeing some of the most hilarious AI baby?
Speaker 1:dad jokes yes, oh, my gosh Hit us with one. The AI joke. The AI babies are that one. You mean when they talk to each other, or whatever. Yeah, it's amazing.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I went to buy some bees the other day and he counted out. I said I want a dozen bees and he counted out 13. And he goes. He gave me one too many. He goes. Oh, that's a free bee. And then the little guys go ha, ha ha, you know they're laughing, and they're drinking. You know they're drinking beers.
Speaker 1:You know, they're little babies.
Speaker 2:You know it's so creative. See AI is good, I know. See AI is good. I know Some of it is, some of it's good it is.
Speaker 1:See when you use it to the right things. It's good To make baby talks yeah. If you make a baby, talk man, what's funnier?
Speaker 2:than that. I mean go on. It's so hilarious, that is hilarious I love it.
Speaker 1:I love it too, the market's changing.
Speaker 2:We're going to do another baby joke. So if a baby refuses to take his nap, is he resisting a rest?
Speaker 1:Oh, my gosh, that's a dad joke, right there, this is the kind of stuff. This is good material. But I also like this Screw the real estate show. We're just going to do jokes. Don't quit your day job. I'm sorry.
Speaker 2:I won't, I promise.
Speaker 1:Oh, my goodness.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:So we are going to do real estate stuff today At some point.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it depends. He's kind of taken away the show here what the hell's going on?
Speaker 1:The 251st show will be Pete as the host.
Speaker 2:You know, I was talking to two of our prominent lenders yesterday and they say they only watch this show of yours that's awesome for the numbers, for the numbers, sorry guys, we're gonna do baby jokes today.
Speaker 1:Yeah, they're gonna be lost. They're gonna be lost. You knew who you are. Yeah, exactly, exactly. No, that's cool so but what's funny is there's there's no denying it at this point that the market is is changing. Oh yeah, there's no. I mean, uh, locally here in berks County I saw it go up to 525. It's at 524 here, we haven't seen a consistent over 500 in a very long time.
Speaker 2:It's been a couple days.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's wild. So I really think that we're seeing an inventory increase. Yep, it's happening. I think people are. I think they're fed up with not doing what they wanted to do and they're just listing their houses. That's right.
Speaker 2:They're fed up.
Speaker 1:It gets to the point where how many years are you going to wait for the situation to change in your favor?
Speaker 2:Yeah. I mean you can't do that you can't stop your life. You always preach this. You always have on the show for years now about you just don't time a market.
Speaker 1:You can't, definitely not.
Speaker 2:You just go. When you got to go, yeah, exactly Either side, by yourself, you just got to go.
Speaker 1:So I think a lot of people are finally doing it yeah.
Speaker 2:I agree.
Speaker 1:They're going south or they're downsizing, or they're bringing parents in, or they're doing the multi-family not multi-family but multi-generational under one roof, and I think that's good yeah it is good, we need to see that. I think that's something, that's a good thing, sure, so yeah. So what do you have for stats? I mean both local and national.
Speaker 2:Your active was right 524.
Speaker 1:You thought I was wrong at first.
Speaker 2:I was. It was actually 526, but you probably checked it.
Speaker 1:No, I sold two before we came down here. Oh, you do still work.
Speaker 2:Yeah, oh, you do still work. Yeah, I still work believe it or not.
Speaker 1:My wife doesn't think I do, but otherwise I do. You just play on the radio all day. Yes, exactly.
Speaker 2:But no average sold so far. This year is just under 315 in the county includes the city and that's up or down.
Speaker 1:Huh, up or down, that's up. Okay, small, small percentage 2% or something like that Interesting right.
Speaker 2:Yeah, interesting Days on market are absorptions at 1.1. Okay. And that's been one.
Speaker 1:Yeah, so 30 days, 34 days, 35 days.
Speaker 2:Days on market is interesting. The average of that so far has been 25,. Right, okay, this is Berks County. Now everybody, this is Berks. Yeah, but you took average of January to the end of July. Those are my stats. July was 16. Oh, interesting, right, really interesting. Yeah, and March was 33. Interesting right, Wow, January was 29. So you average all that out, it's averaging 25, but technically the trend is going back to faster right, that's weird. Yeah.
Speaker 1:So I know as a company we did did nine. So that means the inventory, as much as it's staying replenished at 525. That means because if we say 525 and that's over several days, that means there's enough listings coming on the market yep, to stay there, to stay there, to stay there at that number, which means we're getting more listings. But it also means there's buyers that are now finally getting a home Yep, because they're soaking them up. That's why it's gone for shorter.
Speaker 2:Yep, it's going for shorter because of that, and so the trend is going from in like the 30 range down to 15, 16. Yeah, and the interest rates have something to do with it. I think I saw that it's six and a half.
Speaker 1:They're down lower than they've been in what since december or last year, or something like that and the 15 is 5.86 the 30 is 5.6.5, so that's incredible yeah, but I know I just want to.
Speaker 2:I just want to plug keller williams today because, um, our average days on markets, the lowest in burks county was nine. Oh, wow, that was last year. Yeah, last month, I'm sorry, okay. And uh, everybody else was higher. It's amazing. The county is averaging at 16. This is just July. Now July, the county was 16. We were nine.
Speaker 1:Actually our company. Here we tend to be lower, the lowest days on market almost every month, and the highest average price. Yes, exactly yeah.
Speaker 2:It's cool, so list with us.
Speaker 1:We're just going to do this a little bit A little bit of patting on the back, since there's nobody behind us. But no, that's great. Those are great numbers and it's interesting to see where things are going. Yeah, yeah, it's cool, it is, it's cool, it's going that way. Well, and also, not only do the sellers get used to or get fed up with not doing what they want to do. The buyers are like you know what, man, these rates are just not going to change. Man, these rates are just they're not going to change and if they do, it's going to be an eighth of a point. We're not going to see no-transcript If we get down below six next year. We'll be lucky if we do. That's right. Otherwise, this is where it's hanging out.
Speaker 1:Six and a quarter maybe, yeah, six and a quarter, but I think you're going to see six to six and a half for a very long time.
Speaker 2:I think so it's okay. It's still well under the average over four years.
Speaker 1:Hugo's not happy about that, though, because he wants to refinance I think. I'll refinance by the time it gets like a percentage in a quarter. Then I'll be fine when?
Speaker 2:are you at Nine?
Speaker 1:No, yeah, hey don't laugh.
Speaker 2:He doesn't realize.
Speaker 1:I told him that was a great rate.
Speaker 2:Oh, you did. You told him that. No, I think it's seven and a half right now. Okay, all right, no, you're bad, but that's what he bought, but Right no you're bad, which is, but that's what he bought.
Speaker 1:But here's the good news is that his house has gone.
Speaker 2:Yeah, your house is way up. Oh, it went up a lot. Is that two years now? It's probably almost two years. Yeah, two years now. Okay, you're thinking five and a half, you're going to do it. Five and a half percent, I think you could do it at six percent.
Speaker 1:And you'd why? Because it'll remove PMI. Oh beautiful.
Speaker 2:Because of the equity.
Speaker 1:Yes, it will the equity difference Boom. Yeah, so right there it is yeah, yeah, he's got a great agent, I got to tell you, you know the realtor.
Speaker 2:he's probably the best I've ever met.
Speaker 1:Oh my God and handsome.
Speaker 2:Oh, so handsome and can sing.
Speaker 1:That's right, oh my, so what else do you got? Anything else? I was going to go through some of these graphs here.
Speaker 2:It's going to connect with some of the things I have to say here.
Speaker 1:I think your graphs- you know, I'm probably just going to show them this way Show them right there, show them right there.
Speaker 1:So this one here is pretty interesting in that it shows you the differences in inventory or what is going on between the Northeast, the Midwest, the West and the South. It is interesting, the Midwest, the West and the South. It is interesting. You'll see the green there, the big green ones here. That's the South and that's the West. And it is incredible the difference and I'm going to tell you the numbers here really quick Northeast as far as buyer and seller dynamics, showing how they have shifted. In the Northeast we have 88,663 buyers out there right now we have 71,754 sellers, so it's still technically a seller's market. The Midwest is teetering. It's becoming a balanced market. It's teetering. The South is crazy just because of inventory. They have so much inventory. They have 293,500 sellers and only 177,000 buyers. So what does that do? Prices?
Speaker 2:are going down.
Speaker 1:Prices are going down and they are. It's pretty simple how this works, and then in the West it's actually not as bad as it is in the South, but it's weird how different it is.
Speaker 2:This is so simple. I question why we're even here.
Speaker 1:Yeah, exactly, exactly. Well, you know what? We're just going to chuck that over there. So the other thing is you talk about the inventory. Let's go into the inventory situation what you had said, what we had back in 2008.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's that graph you have right there actually. And the headline on that article said inventory is the highest since the crash. Yeah, no, no, it's wrong. It's not the highest since the crash, which I don't know where they were thinking. I think they were trying to. Oh, I know what they were doing. Kcm was saying that there was an article and again the media saying some stupid thing that it's the highest since the crash. No, if we show that graph, I mean it's not this is the highest right here.
Speaker 1:That was the highest, that was 2008 June. Yes, exactly.
Speaker 2:And then the little blip over here, that little increased blip is right now.
Speaker 1:Yeah, right there. So it's about half of what it was right now. So, guys, that's man, Then talk about what you had said about 2008,. What the inventory? What it was here in Berks County.
Speaker 2:So you know how weird I am Everybody knows how weird I am with numbers.
Speaker 1:We could do a whole show on that.
Speaker 2:We could do weirdness, yeah, but I had a stat. I had it stashed away 2008, june. There, stashed away 2008 June, there was 4,400 homes on the market and Brad just told you it was 524.
Speaker 1:524 right now.
Speaker 2:So what is that? It's a little more than 10%, isn't that crazy, right? So that's not up to that level. No, I think we're good, it's not up to that level.
Speaker 1:I think we're good yeah.
Speaker 2:And the reason for all that was builders. The whole builder thing was going on huge in 2008. And they've been underbuilding for the last 15 years. They're just starting to catch up now on the building graph, which you had on there. So a lot of that has to do with new construction. We don't have much of it anymore, especially locally. There's a building graph.
Speaker 1:Isn't that nice and colorful, beautiful. It's very colorful, right.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that orange was the four huge years of builders just going crazy, yep. And then the. The orange is what's coming, or the yellow, red by the.
Speaker 1:You color blinder. No, that's red, this was the red. Maybe we should have a little lesson first about colors. But no, what he's saying is that from 2000, 2003.
Speaker 2:I agree with what Brad is.
Speaker 1:That's right Exactly 2003, to like 2006.
Speaker 2:Yeah, they were building like crazy. It was nuts, and if you remember, you remember, yeah, you were part of that. Oh, I was definitely part of it.
Speaker 1:You were in it. I made a lot of money those years. You did yes, I did yes. Still owe me no, but seriously it was amazing. Realtors were making money like crazy those years.
Speaker 2:It was crazy and then all of a sudden 2006 hit 2007 and 8, and it was like oh, I remember taking buyers from development to development to development, sitting down with the reps in these developments around here. It was unreal.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it was incredible, and that was national too. It was everywhere, it's happening everywhere. But and that was national too, it was everywhere, it's happening everywhere. But most of the new construction that we're seeing is mostly down south right now South and west, and you can show that graph again about how the south is way up you have me doing a lot of graph changing here.
Speaker 2:This is going to look confusing. That's the one you crumpled. No, you do it. I do that one. That's all right, don't worry about it. Do it, though. You know what I'm getting rid of this one now there you go, there we go.
Speaker 1:Can I throw something? Yeah, you can don't throw it at hugo, though, because then the whole thing shuts down oh, man, so that was the biller stuff.
Speaker 2:And then um, uh and also oh, was there anything more on the inventory that you had to say? Because that's all I had to say about inventory yeah, well, this is what's.
Speaker 1:This is what's interesting, is this one here is the inventory change compared to pre-pandemic um okay, like this is a graph.
Speaker 1:That's basically. It's like a map that shows you everything, uh, across the united states and it just shows that pa is still 44 below where it was pre-pandemic. As far as inventory, 44 it's a lot, it's a lot. And then you look at cal, at California, and they're actually only 5.9%. Florida is plus 30% where they were pre-pandemic. They actually have more homes on the market right now than they did before the pandemic. Is that crazy or what? Wow.
Speaker 2:It's a lot.
Speaker 1:Wow, yeah, so that just shows you right there, like why we are where we are. But it's good because that means that we're not going to see in Pennsylvania, especially our area here. And you know, I think here's what's interesting with that whole thing. If you look at Pennsylvania being 44% below okay, that's an average of the whole state I still think locally in Berks County we're even lower than that I agree. We're lower than that because we're probably out of all the counties around us, we're the only ones not building.
Speaker 2:yeah, I mean we are, but it's not really not on the scale it should be not the way it should be.
Speaker 1:Yeah, lancaster's building. York's building. Yeah, lehigh's building. Even scuol, county's building. Yep, burke's. We're like at a. We're like at a total stall yeah, it's weird.
Speaker 2:Right, it is weird. I know, I know they're not making any more land. I get that. No, that's true. I heard that we might have less land.
Speaker 1:We're looking to put a nuclear power plant, though, on the moon.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so that could help. That's interesting.
Speaker 1:Hugo, maybe the next place I sell you will be at the moon, that's right.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1:We've Different thing.
Speaker 2:That's different. Yeah, it's close, but it's a little different.
Speaker 1:Let's talk about housing markets recovering?
Speaker 2:Sure, yeah, because in the 1980s it was the high interest rates. They were double digits, everybody 13s, 14s 15s going on. In fact, it got us to 20 in 1981, maybe Something like that, but I know I started in 84.
Speaker 1:My parents bought their first house at 18%.
Speaker 2:Oh man, he's like man. You did a good job for me, brad, that 9% that 9%.
Speaker 1:I got you half of that. See, that's right, that's right, great realtor, great realtor.
Speaker 2:Do you remember what year that was, Brad? What's that? When your parents bought it was 1980 or 81.
Speaker 1:It was 80 or 81? Yeah, it was in that time.
Speaker 2:Yeah, all right, absolutely all right. So, but that was a high interest rate problem there and they've recovered. Yeah, when they came down right 2008, we all knew what that was a high inventory of over leveraged homes that was a financing crisis not a housing crisis and then that took about what? 11, 12 years maybe. Yeah, ish it took a while to recover. And then we had covid, which recovered instantly yeah, well, because it was self-made yeah, it was not, it was not, it was.
Speaker 1:It was had nothing to do with housing, it had nothing to do with financing, it had nothing to do with uh, the economy. Right, it had everything to do with you couldn't leave your house. Yeah, that's it. You know, I mean, I mean. So if you look at that, it was a self-made uh, depression yeah, but how many?
Speaker 2:I mean in those two, and then, as soon as we were allowed out, the market went crazy true, but we were selling them sight unseen absolutely.
Speaker 1:I did seven in that two-month period we weren't allowed to even be here.
Speaker 2:Yep, I know, you know, um, but in the but the home sales in 2024 was four million, oh, 67. In 2025, they're predicting it's going to be $4,010,000. Yes, which is a little lower. That's the forecast, which is probably close to that 2026, they're saying $4.576,490. That's a lot more. That's a lot more. It's a lot more and that's coming back up to 2019, I'm going to say, yeah, probably, that's coming back up to 2019, I want to say yeah, probably that's about right.
Speaker 1:I think we're between like 4.5 and 5 is like the normal. That's normal for national, that's like our good feel nationally we are probably on that vein.
Speaker 2:Only because of low inventory, yeah, and they're saying it was affordability was the reason for the low sales, and I disagree with that. I disagree completely. It has to do with inventory pretty much. Absolutely For us. It does For us, it totally does. And the boost of production for 2026 is going to be lower interest rates, probably right In the low sixes, and higher inventory, Because you guys are all hearing that it's going up a little bit and it is going up a little bit.
Speaker 1:But something else I want to bring up and I brought this up in our sales meeting and this is kind of something just to know meeting and this is kind of something just to know. I think you know what. It brings me back to back when cars. You remember when cars got went from like being affordable to being are you out of your mind at 60, 70 grand, whatever it is. Yeah, and it was a lot of sticker shock and and they used to lead, the salesman would lead with all this cars 29, 999 or whatever, and then they would. Then it went up to 35 000, 40, 000, 45, 000, 50. It got to a point where they stopped saying the price of the car and they started saying the lease payment only. They would say you can have this for $399, and then the estrus would say you'd have to put $4,000 down for 36 months.
Speaker 1:All that crap that was changing the sales. You're changing the whole attitude of the person, because nobody cares what the car costs, as far as the sticker price. What they care about is what is it going to do to my monthly budget? That's what they care about. So the reason I bring that up is that if you were looking at a house for $400,000, actually the loan amount $400 dollars at seven percent okay, we're at 2661 was the payment, that's principled interest, okay, 400,000 at 6.75, so a quarter percent less, you save 66 dollars.
Speaker 1:Uh, 400,000 30 year yeah, yes, 30 $400,000 at 6.5%. You save $132 from the 7%. Yeah. So when you start looking at those numbers, it's really not that big of a deal. If you're okay with spending over $2,000 a month for your mortgage, then you really think $132 is going to be a difference. No, you know what I mean? It really doesn't make it. So stop looking at that price and remember what that monthly commitment is, and I'll tell you why you have to look at that.
Speaker 1:Is that 400,000 and six and a half percent being a $2,500 payment a month? You know what it costs to rent a three bedroom right now? Yeah.00, yep, 2300. And guess what that money's going to pay? Somebody else's wealth, yep, yeah. So just just kind of think of it. So don't ever not buy right because you're like, oh my gosh, the rates are so high or I'm gonna wait till they come down. What you're waiting till they come down? 132 dollars, right, really, you're gonna miss out, because here's the here's the real thing. If you wait, it's not gonna be 400 anymore, it's gonna be 425 or 450. Guess what? Wait till next year. You, just now you didn't save anything. Nope, nope, that's the thing. Is kind of fun.
Speaker 2:It's kind of a wash, if you think about it. Yeah, more of a house and a lower interest rate absolutely. Yeah, it's a wash yeah this goes to you don't time the market and if the rates?
Speaker 1:go down can guarantee you you're going to be in a competition like you wouldn't believe. Yep, totally, it'll be crazy, yep.
Speaker 2:I totally agree.
Speaker 1:Yeah, well, you should.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I should.
Speaker 1:I pay you to. Yeah, that's true, I mean Jesus Christ, this is true. $50 every week.
Speaker 2:I haven't seen my money yet You're taking it off my loan. Yeah, exactly, exactly. Do you have anything else? Multiple, just quick. On multiple offers Northeast one out of three deals are multiple offers. And the rest of the nation is probably one out of five or one out of ten, depending on those areas that we talked about, south or whatever. We are still extremely strong. Now it's not 18 offers in three hours, like it was right after COVID, but we are still. I mean, are you getting them?
Speaker 2:I just wrote one for a buyer and I know I'm in competition in two days. Now you're talking about a $330,000 price point. There's probably going to be four or five offers on that.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it depends on the price range. Yep. If you go over 600, everything changes. Yep.
Speaker 2:Well, if you go over 600, everything changes. Well, I had an 801. That was four offers too in Lancaster, lancaster County. Oh, okay, yeah, yeah, so interesting right, good, good, good, yeah, but it's still happening, yeah, but something to remember.
Speaker 1:with that coming up and this is something that we always talk about you can overprice a house in any market.
Speaker 2:Absolutely.
Speaker 1:Doesn't matter how good the market is, you can still overprice the house. So the closer we get to balanced, the more you have to pay attention to that.
Speaker 2:And I think we're back to looking at solds instead of list prices.
Speaker 1:Oh, absolutely. Which has to do?
Speaker 2:with that multiple offer thing being down.
Speaker 1:Absolutely.
Speaker 2:The music's coming on.
Speaker 1:It's like the Grammys this is telling you that it's time, it's over now it's over.
Speaker 1:Don't they do that, the grammys or something like that? Yeah, they just start, start bringing the music in and that's how it's going. Yeah, that's so funny, right? Well, there it is. There's the music. That means shut up, brad, um, but no. Thanks so much for joining us every thursday 7 pm. Don't forget to help out our sponsors. We got first response uh, contracting john sellers 484-256-7136, and we got comfort pro guys are good. They do all the HVAC stuff into air quality, duck cleaning, all that stuff. 6 1 0, 4, 7, 7, 5 5 1 2. That's about it. We'll see you next Thursday at 7 PM.
