BACK STORY with DANA LEWIS

TRUMP'S SLUMP - Joe Biden on course to become America's next President.

July 13, 2020 Dana Lewis Season 1 Episode 17
BACK STORY with DANA LEWIS
TRUMP'S SLUMP - Joe Biden on course to become America's next President.
Chapters
00:03:49
stanley greenberg
00:25:53
Michael Shure
BACK STORY with DANA LEWIS
TRUMP'S SLUMP - Joe Biden on course to become America's next President.
Jul 13, 2020 Season 1 Episode 17
Dana Lewis

Trumps support has evaporated.   Key voting demographics are against him in 2020 including the all important working women's vote.  Democrat Leader Joe Biden is set to become America's next President in the 2020 election.

We talk to famed pollster Stanley Greenberg.

And National Political reporter Michael Shure, with fantastic insight and commentary on the question will Trump leave The White House if beaten.


Show Notes Transcript Chapter Markers

Trumps support has evaporated.   Key voting demographics are against him in 2020 including the all important working women's vote.  Democrat Leader Joe Biden is set to become America's next President in the 2020 election.

We talk to famed pollster Stanley Greenberg.

And National Political reporter Michael Shure, with fantastic insight and commentary on the question will Trump leave The White House if beaten.


stan greenberg:

It's , you know , it's a Phantom campaign and a Phantom presidency at this point.

dana lewis - host :

Hi everyone. And welcome to backstory. I'm your host and the creator of backstory. Dana Lewis in this edition, Trump slump in the polls, it won't easily be won . Back. Voters have turned against him on his bungled. Many say negligent handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, his promises to reopen the country. Haven't garnered public support, but rather fueled the lack of credibility and confidence. Overall, president Trump's approval ticked down from 49% in may and 39% in June to just 38% in July Trump's campaign ads reminisce about a roaring economy before COVID-19. He says the pandemic could have been worse. Although it's hard to imagine how

Speaker 2:

Donald Trump and I approve this message. My administration will take all necessary steps to safeguard our citizens from this threat.

Speaker 3:

[inaudible] getting Americans a false septic .

Speaker 2:

If these steps had not been put in place, it could have been 2 billion people dead here in the United States, no matter how hard they tried to stop, they can't you built the greatest economy

Speaker 3:

The world has ever seen, and we're going to do it again.

dana lewis - host :

Democratic rival Joe Biden promises a better federal response to the virus. More support for small business supplies for healthcare workers and more international cooperation.

joe biden :

The Muller has come to deal with the denial of the promise of this nation made to so many, because there weren't clear before it's clear. Now this country wasn't built by wall street, bankers and CEOs was built by the great American middle class health care workers, docs, nurses, delivery, truck drivers, grocery store workers. You know , we've come up with a new phrase for them , essential workers. We need to do more than praise them . We need to pay them as president. It's my commitment to all of you to lead into these issues and to listen for that's what the presidency is the duty to care, to care for all of us, not just those who vote for us, but on this job is not about me. It's about you. It's about us. I'm Joe Biden.

dana lewis - host :

overseas. Trump's America first has become America alone at home. His failure to bring the nation together. After the murder of George Floyd appears to be grounded, some say in racism, and now he is accused of subverting justice by commuting the 40 month jail sentence of Roger Stone indicted in the investigation of Russian interference in the last election democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren said it showed mr. Trump was the most corrupt president

Speaker 4:

In history. Some Republican critics of Trump have also spoken out with Senator Mitt Romney describing the president's decision as unprecedented historic corruption or the president defending his decision to commute. Roger Stone,

donald trump:

Roger Stone was treated horribly. Roger Stone was treated very unfairly. Roger Stone was brought into the switch on this whole political, which shot. Then the Mueller scam. It's a scam because it's been proven false and he was treated very unfairly. What I did, what I did, I will tell you this people are extremely happy,

dana lewis - host :

trump has lost important v oters, supporting key States as working women above all have jumped ship. The Republicans who think Trump will save them o r on a sinking ship say pollsters. And this is not in any way similar to the polls in 2016, which gave Hillary Clinton in I CH. Dr. Stanley Greenberg is a pollster who worked for bill Clinton, Al Gore, Tony Blair, Nelson Mandela. And h e's the author of a book rest in peace. The GOP, how the new America is d ooming R epublicans, dr. Greenberg, welcome to backstory. Delighted. Thank you for having me. I should say I reached out to you because of your article in the Atlantic. And I thought it was a brilliant insight. I mean, essentially you're saying this isn't Hillary Clinton's polling. What are the latest polls and Biden at this point has a s izable lead, l ike kind of half. The argument is polling.

stan greenberg:

It has changed, first of all, polling wasn't that wrong. And then nationally in 2016, it was wrong. And in the States , uh , you know, where the state poly missed it and not the national number , uh , metal , but also it was huge underrepresentation of white working class voters , uh , in the polling , uh , in 2016, you know, that missed the fact that there was like all of these new working class voters coming in to support Trump, but my polls have 10% more white working class voters than they did in 16, just to reflect the real registered the real population. The other part of it is it just misses the fact that the country has been in revolt against Trump and which is why the poll numbers are so big. The reason why I buy it and has such a big lead, you know, is that from day one, we've had the women's March. Uh , we had the pushback against the president on immigration, the Muslim ban , um, you know , against him, amongst colleges, get it , you know , women, the intolerance, and then male kind of a kind of millennial and gen Z revolt against him on Rex . Um, and the country has turned against him and is fighting against him on everything that this kind of native his vision of America. Is Trump a racist? Um, yes, I, yes. There's no reason . I mean, why should one hesitate in saying no to every point he has set off, you know, racist signals, you know, whether it was about, you know, not knowing the , uh , David Duke, the head of the KKK in the, in the campaign, they good people on both sides in Charlottesville and now what he's doing. Um, yes. Uh ,

dana lewis - host :

And he's, he's done tweets against the NASCAR driver bubble Wallace against black .

Speaker 4:

And if we go back then , if we go back to it, you know , you know , you know , earlier period where he advertised in the , uh , I believe New York times , uh, you know, about the , uh, you know, the central park, you know, murder there , um , calling, you know , for their conviction and going back a long way . But I mean the most recent ones, obviously the murder of George Floyd is he

Speaker 6:

Capping into a part of America. That'll get them reelected. I mean, is there something I don't understand or is this, is he tapping into a demographic there or ,

stan greenberg:

Or racist Trump not even close? You know, the , um, you know, the, you know, Trump's election, you know , has led Americans and let everybody in the world to , you know, to question the America, that they had a huge faith in it's exceptionalism , um, on so many issues on race, on ended up above all at immigration, being an immigrant country was almost a deep defining element of America . Um, you know, it grew as, you know, it elected like a Barack Obama, you know , president United States twice, you know, and it , you know , it looks at your country, a very different country from the rest of the world, quite exceptional, his election just produced huge doubts about America, amongst Americans . Um , you wonder every day, what do we really believe? You know, and it's still on . Yeah . You still have to say, well, if 38% still approve of how he's doing an office, isn't that unacceptable.

Speaker 6:

That's when it , this argument of the two Americans.

stan greenberg:

Yeah. Right, right. We get , what you have to understand is that the, that the Republican party has been in a decade long battle led by the tea party. Um, just stop Barack Obama and a black president, first black president from governance , as well as, as poll , this diverse coalition, which also included, you know, millennials , um, you know, and , uh , unmarried, unmarried women , um, but a diverse coalition to block that coalition , uh, from, you know, from governing. And they basically stopped everything and polarize everything for a decade. But the base of that was the tea party within the tea party, revolt the tea party within the Republican party. They ultimately took over the Republican party, know they stopped the GOP establishment from, you know, from governing was an internal battle, you know, and Donald Trump ended up leading that faction of the Republican party, you know, but the, he had huge support with the evangelicals and , you know, and, you know, and tea party and mostly with the Catholic Republicans , uh , but he's driven out everybody else. And so, yes, he has an approval rating, but it is grounded in a diminished party. That's losing support. That's , you know , that's shedding , uh, supporters .

Speaker 6:

Let's , let's talk the polls and demographics for a minute because you were an advisor to Hillary Clinton's campaign and you thought that she was going to win. So what is different about this ? Why do you feel more assured that Biden's got it

Speaker 4:

Right ? Um, the , um, I was somebody who they, you know, they welcome input. I wasn't in the room , uh , amongst the decision makers, but they , uh, they did welcome input input if you're not in the room, if you're not part of the gang . Right . But I did communicate with her and , uh, and Podesta and Rob, they moved and the others who were at the , the spirit and the main speech writers , um, you know, of the , of the campaign , um, no, they had that , there was a , it was a very arrogant campaign, you know, that , uh, uh, the didn't listen to voters stopped doing polling. I didn't know that. So I heard from the campaign, you know, that they were, you know, that are pulling was fine in the Midwest. I hadn't realized they had stopped polling had not done any polling in those States or nationally for the last three weeks in the campaign. And they had models

Speaker 6:

Coordinate , especially in the Midwest.

Speaker 4:

Well, you know , like campaigns are run in America. This is not a foreseeable system yet when each state and it's a winner take all system. So you , you know, you need to win Michigan, you need to win Pennsylvania, you need to win Wisconsin. And so if you're running a real campaign, so when I'm doing polling, for example, you know, for the, you know , Gore campaign , um, you have a pollster at campaign in each state and you're , you know, where are we there? What do we have to do, you know, to win that state and get the electoral college majority. So if you don't have a campaign, which they didn't, they didn't do any advertising, she never went to Wisconsin. Um, and do any color , uh , in a state that they had to win. Um, it's mad , it's malpractice. Um, similarly in Michigan, they spent more money and trying to pick off an electoral college , you know, I think, you know, in brass or Kansas, you know, rather than when we sure of winning Michigan. And so

Speaker 6:

Gaffes was to describe half of Trump's supporters as deplorables walked right into what you've termed a white working class revolt against the elites. I mean, why did they revolt last election? And they won't this time.

Speaker 4:

Yeah. Look, I think that's the most attention to the most important piece of, of, you know , what about the polling? Obviously, I talked about that earlier, but it's also the most important piece of what was happening in , uh , in 2016 and there you were looking at it , word work. I worked in class revolt that was really saw in Britain, you know, with the, you know, the, what happened in the referendum on Brexit. And we saw, you know, with , you know , with Donald Trump and you saw working class that in the post financial crisis, I'd really been crushed. No one has cared very much about their loss of wealth and income , um , and , uh , and jobs , um, and their political marginalization and that , you know, in that period and Trump Brexit in , you know , in , in Britain, but Trump in the U S you know, really, you know, tapped or that galvanized that again, there was an, and there , if you look in the primaries and the general, there was like steady rent, increased registration of white working class voters , um, to come in and vote for Trump. Um , so they came in and access , you know , uh, to produce that result, but we've had the opposite. Everything, every trend has moved in the opposite direction. You know, the, she didn't campaign with white voters. She thought when she lost badly, she was in Michigan. You know, she thought she couldn't win them. And she simply decided to compensate by winning the big cities with bigger numbers and minority voters and women voters, all of the voters that were Donald Trump was defending, and she ran very much ran on identity politics. He didn't go to the rural areas, didn't go to work and class community, if Biden , on the other hand, Biden in his bones, you know, comes out of that respect for working people. You know, that's, you know, that's, Biden's whole identity. And it's impossible to imagine that he would run in, run in that, you know, in that way, you'll respect working people, but also Trump lost these voters . You know , if you look at the midterm elections, you know , the , what I argue in another Atlantic piece is that the other reason why people don't understand, you know , Trump in his weakness is they just work . And plus it's invisible to them. You know, they, they focused on women. They focus on college educated and elite voters. So if you look at the 2018 midterms, all the focus was on suburbs, suburban women, the seats that Democrats picked up in the house, but the shift from the working white working class, which is three times a building to the Democrats, as it was in the suburbs, it didn't bruise as many seats cause you're dealing statewide, you know, of affecting the statewide races and the suburban seats for on the edge of being picked up, the trend had been there, but the big revolt against Trump took place in 2018 with the white working class. But since they're invisible to the elites, they don't see the working class. They just can't believe. I also can't believe they won't be fooled again. You know , they looked at the Trump rallies and they think those, you know, that's the white working class, but what they miss is that they pulled off him dramatic already and

Speaker 6:

Anatomy because he, is it because of his positions on race, his positions , uh , on immigration , um, or, or is it not COVID-19 and

Speaker 4:

Because they're not fools , they , you know, they, Donald Trump came in, you know , and , uh, uh, office and he promised them affordable healthcare . We're going to get, we're going to get this house . I'm going to give this tremendous replacement. Uh, I'll never touch social security and Medicare. We came in and, you know , repealed, you know , uh, you know, tried to repeal the affordable care act, allowed any replacement , tried to cut Medicare and Medicaid. And they were most portrayed by that because they were dealing in real time with these huge costs of healthcare . Um , and they only saw prescription drug costs, skyrocket . And instead he cut taxes for the , uh , the rich and governed for the big corporations and the rich so that, you know , they think they were , you know, full buying them and that , but that happened, but elites have been unable to see Trump's weakness because the working class was invisible to them,

Speaker 6:

Much more devastating to Trump's prospects. He's winning support from women who formed the majority of white working class.

Speaker 4:

Yes . But we're also seeing

Speaker 6:

Just from the Republican foundation , um , uh , deterioration and support within the Republican party, right? I mean, the people who identify as Republicans, you quoted a figure from 39% down to 36% before Floyd, George Floyd's death. And now it's down to 33% from 39. What, why are Republicans?

stan greenberg:

Well, I mean, he, you know, he basically driven out the, the biggest shift is like moderate pro choice, Republican women , um , more college educated and they, you know, they've been pushed out then they've been dropped about 10% less as a proportion of the party. Um, so that now he's stronger the remaining block, but he's moved out, but he's pushed out. The, the biggest shift , uh , was his moderate Republican women, but you've also now beginning to see us a , you know , a shifts of the McCain Republicans were more conservative, you know, and, and, and more pro life. Um , but they've been pushed out to not quite as big numbers. And then our latest research, we've also shown a pull back from many, you know, observing Catholics. Uh, so the U S is left with the key party and evangelicals as solid. And they'll rally a little rally to him.

Speaker 4:

They'll come well , they won't come to his rallies apparently. Uh , but you know, it's , it's a paper it's, you know, it's , it's a Phantom campaign, you know , and a Phantom presidency at this point, you know , I , uh, I describing the piece that he's kind of a pop gun that he, you know , that he calls out there was water , you know , you know, at the white house, you know , protect, you know , the white house, you know, our liberate, you know, you know, Wisconsin or Michigan and Virginia nothing's happened. You know, people don't want the fact that he's making these calls for the, these voters, his voters that come back him, some con with assault weapons is intimidating, but it's not real. It doesn't, you have 24 million people that may have participated in these protests. It just, as a huge event, that's happened with him having this very weak level of support, even at the kind of anti , you know , the anti-political white nationalist blocked . He's brought out before,

Speaker 6:

If you were to talk about risks between now and November, and that's a long time in an election campaign, who, who has the biggest margin of risk, do you think, and you make that point at some of the things you've written.

Speaker 4:

Yeah.

Speaker 6:

Mom is the one that, who can step in it rather than biotin .

Speaker 4:

Right. Right. So I say, first of all, my view is because I thought Hillary was gonna win. I still wanted her to win because I wanted also to win , like , you know , the Congress and the Senate, you know, as well, because the Senate is so hard, you know, and it's so biased in favor of rural areas and rural States that it was critical to try to pick up those sentences. So I've lost usually to win. That didn't mean, you know , you didn't do everything possible to get the biggest possible men , you know, against Trump. And they didn't do that. It took for granted, they were going to win. And I think the same thing is true here that you assume that you could lose this. You have to have the biggest possible margin because we have to have a big Senate win and really have a real control of the federal government when this is over. But there's luck . There's always uncertainty, you know, what's, you know , what's the uncertainty that's out there . You know, the Democrats are divided, you know, the, when you see the issues of police, you know , funding , the police, you know, monuments , uh, I would imagine Democrats are , you know , are , are divided on, you know , where you go, you know , with those issues.

dana lewis - host :

Trump has , you know, Twittering on that , uh , saying in a law and order law and order. So he obviously sees a chink in the armor.

stan greenberg:

but the what out, but you have the other things that are playing out. W e have an economy, u h, with double digit unemployment h igh, since the great depression, you know, u h, with the, you know, more States not opening up, you know, are you g oing t o have this big, prolonged, double digit unemployment coming into the election? Where's the economy going to take off? I mean, which he's, y ou k now, banking and talking about third quarter, that's, y ou k now, s urging growth. I think it's more likely that's g oing t o stagnate. And that's what I've seen that i n most of the reports of what might be coming, you know, is i t's more likely to stagnation. What about the virus? Do we think, we think in three months, the country is going to be struggling to control it, or do we think it's going to b e, have conquered it and people want to reward a nd applaud the president, u h, for a success and, you know, i n dealing with it right now, he's saying you have to go back to the school, y ou k now, has to be, you know, in the school buildings themselves, that's a requirement from the federal government, Betsy v otes, as you know, declared that has to be five days a week, you know, in the buildings it's not going to happen.

Speaker 4:

And parents are extremely nervous. So in every area that you're dealing with, you know , it's more likely we'll buy, make , say something that's insensitive or not out of touch with what's happening in this country, you know, or as I said in the piece, you know, well, Donald Trump, you know, say something that's, you know, support the white nationalists and bring know , bring out elevate the country in front of him as he has been doing over and over again. So yes, there's uncertainty, but, you know , but I think the, most of the risks is on the Trump side. And almost everything you look at to me has greater risks, you know , for Trump, you know, and the piece I would add in this , um, is the chief justice Roberts , uh, who has made three very surprising decisions. And he's had some say, and when these decisions were made, cause I think he was sending a signal to the president. This is not 2000 when Al Gore, you know , was not allowed to become president despite winning the popular vote and probably electoral college. Um, we're not gonna over, we're not gonna overturn a real electric. Uh , what I believe that this is not a Trump court , uh, is what I think Roberts was saying. Um, and that's, again, a uterus. You think you'll go, last question. Will Trump go? If the numbers are close, that's not a pollster's insight. That's, that's more than American just watching the way this guy. I think he will do everything possible. Um , you know, not, you know, not to go the , um , but it's a federal system , um, in which the elections are certified in the States. And if you don't certify the election in the States, you also don't certify the state official . So it's a little more, it's a little more complicated. If you say this election, then you don't, or , you know, or, you know, or state legislators don't get, don't get seated either. If you've tried to throw out the election, you know, in key States based on , uh , you know, fraud, you know , from high mail in ballots, in press , we look at the secretary of state's , you're looking at Kentucky , you know , the election you just, you know, just happened there where the Republican secretary of state looking at what happened when he tried to have a commission to investigate the 2016 election to show that his election was a result of illegal immigrants, voting Republican secretary of state declined to send the sheets in order, you know , cause that would, if he threw out his election that y'all should throw out their election . Not likely he not like it's more complicated, it's more complicated. I'm not sure. And I'm not sure that a lot of Republicans don't really want him out. Don't want to see another , uh, Trump term , clearly voice discomfort with Trump's Trump's views certainly , uh, on the racist issues in America. So dr. Stanley Greenberg, great to talk to you, sir. Thank you for your time. Thank you for doing this.

dana lewis - host :

Michael shure is a senior national correspondent he's appeared on election shows a great political insight and commentary. Welcome to backstory, Michael.

michael shure :

It's great to be here. I'm a listener, Dana. So I'm glad to be here. Well then I appreciate that because we practically talk every day in another program called Quick Hits. So Michael has to be nice to me. That's true. Although I don't, because we know each other, I can just actually just, y ou k now, go after i t. Excellent. W ell, I'm going to ask you really tough questions. Listen,

dana lewis - host :

I've just listened to a pollster Stanley Greenberg, I mean, terrific analysis. And he says Biden, has it. What do you think does, does Trump still have a surprise?

michael shure :

dYou know, I don't see where he surprises. You'll look at the election map. I just don't see how it's happening. And I'm going to be honest. I was somebody who didn't think he would win last time and a huge majority people that covered

Speaker 7:

The thing. I was on the road with Donald Trump for about a year and a half covering that election, going to those rallies. And I was with Clinton a little bit. I didn't think there was a chance. There's something, you know, you're a hockey fan. Dana , when you go to a hockey game, they say that everyone who cares about it is at the arena, which is why nobody watches it on television. Well, I sort of had the feeling there that everyone who cared about Donald Trump was at the venue. And I was certainly wrong about that. But what I don't think exists this time and I , Stan Greenberg has a lot of information, which I think is really valuable to this conversation. But I also don't think in Joe Biden, you have the same kind of candidate. As a matter of fact, I know that as you did with Hillary Clinton, I think people really underestimated the negativity with which Democrats held Hillary Clinton. I also didn't think that they thought that a woman would vote for Donald Trump. And with all that we knew about him and with the fact that you had a woman on the, as the nominee for the first time. So there's so much that was a play there that we all got wrong. And she also ,

dana lewis - host :

By the way, being a hockey fan, I've been saying the Toronto maple Leafs are gonna win , you know , every year since 1967. And they still haven't got a Stanley cup. So I'm not going to call it a selection. But with Hillary Clinton, do you think that , uh ,

Speaker 7:

I mean, she really had the perception of appealing to the elites and not the working class, especially working class white women. Yeah . And Stan Greenberg points that out, you know, the deplorables line, which we all sort of thought, first of all, a lot of people agreed with, but they thought it was bad politics. Uh , we didn't realize, I don't think the wedge that it put between Hillary Clinton, her supporters and Donald Trump's supporters, she walked into a trap with it. And that trap really energized a lot of people in the States that Donald Trump won by very little. You talk about Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, those rust belt States, those manufacturing States where there is a real, a white middle class in that white middle class is not moved by unions. And the way they once were, there are people that will look at the candidate and Donald Trump's saying, throw the bums out during the swamp that appealed to a lot of the men and women alike

Speaker 6:

Offended by some of the things that he did and you know, his statements and tapes leaked to talking of grabbing women in areas that he shouldn't have. Why did women stick with them then? And why do you think that they won't?

michael shure :

No. Well, I think that the proof is in the pudding as to the second part of that question. So I'm going to do what I can't stand when people do when I interviewed them as answer the second part first. But, but I think the fact that you saw in 2018, so many women, suburban women, suburban white women going toward the Democrats. I think that isn't is more indicative in 2018 than what we saw in 2016, which is them trying out something else. And also again, we have to point to the sort of visceral dislike that many women had as well of Hillary Clinton. And then when you go to the first part of , of what you were asking, I think that this year is different because we've had years or three years now, three and a half years of Donald Trump is president. And that's different than Donald Trump as a candidate. We know how we governance . We know what the country has been like for three and a half years that affects women. And I think a lot of the issues that play to women with issues of empathy, issues of family issues of, of , uh, of jobs and taxes , uh , that affect everyone. But you look at, I think immigration, immigration was an issue that divided the country right now. We are a pro immigrant country. And when you see the kids in cages on the border, that changed a lot of women votes in 2018 ,

Speaker 6:

I can jump in there because I mean, he keeps tweeting law and order law and order, is he strategically demographically adrift? Or does he see something that we don't that there's , there's going to be increasing fear and consternation among people , uh, as black lives matter, say defund the police and he thinks he's going to win it. Maybe on the law ,

Speaker 7:

On order platform. I think what he's doing, I would never advise somebody who won the presidency about how to win the presidency. I don't think he's doing it right this time. I don't think his base for the most part is going anywhere. But as a president who has low approval numbers, he has to win over other people, not just geographically, but demographically. And I don't think he's doing it. It's a law and order yet that gets his people riled up. He can't do the rallies. So he has as many rallies on Twitter when he talks about defunding the police and what that would mean. He's telling that to people who want to hear that, but he has to now reach across and find people like he did last time, these white women voters, for example, that stay in Greenberg writes about, and that you talked about Dana, he's got to get those people to come to him or come back to him . It's tough to do that. And just a little bit of time, then

Speaker 6:

Greenberg made an interesting point in the article that he wrote for the Atlantic. And then also in the interview that I did with him. And I said, you know, what can

Speaker 7:

Go wrong? Which is just about anything in months to come before between now and November. And he said, yeah, but a lot more given Trump's record can go wrong on his side than on Biden's side. Would you agree that the odds are that Trump will put his foot in it many times versus a , you know, Joel joe biden.

michael shure :

by yeah. And that starts with the presumption of a negative, you know, Donald Trump needs something to go, right? And there's, it's very difficult to find things that can go right for Donald Trump, as well as defined things that , uh , that don't go wrong. And so I think you have to look at both of those pictures. And in that conversation, Joe Biden is really sort of the , you know, as Democrats thought for a long time, and as, as Biden argued during the primaries, the perfect candidate is here because he can win in the places that Donald Trump won, where Democrats ordinarily do win.

Speaker 7:

And I think it's proving that way, at least in the polls. And one thing on the polls, and I know Stan Greenberg has talked about this and he talked about in his article and I'm sure with you, Dana , uh , Stan Greenberg is talking about how pollsters got it wrong in 2016? Well like anybody, this is not just one continuum of polling . If your team at the Yankees lose the world series, when they're supposed to win the world series. Well over the winter, they're going to get rid of the second basement. They're going change some coaches, they're going to change the batting order. How do you get them bringing a new pitcher ? What have you, the same thing has to happen with polling . So pollsters have adjusted the way they do their polling. They're much more confident in their numbers now, knowing what they did because of 2016,

Speaker 1:

This question, because we read it, not with the music ,

dana lewis - host :

across the Atlantic, a lot of press and a lot of articles have been written wouldTrump go, if he loses a nd Michael Cohen, which I didn't realize until I read it again today, suggested Trump won't leave in his congressional testimony before heading off to prison. Trump's former attorney said, given my experience, working for Trump, I fear that if he loses the election in 2020, they will never be a peaceful transition of power. That's pretty jarring stuff. It is j arring stuff.

michael shure :

I mean, to sit if Joe Biden wins, just to imagine Joe Biden, as we saw Donald Trump and Barack Obama climb into the limousine to go to the inauguration as is customary, will I do? I think it will be in the way that we've seen that transition of power. I don't know. I don't think so. A nd I see reason for it, but there are a lot of people that are not Donald Trump, t hat they find that his brand loses. T here a re a lot of Republicans that are going to say, mr. President, you have to do this. And if you don't, you're going to be hurting the party and the country for a long time. So it's not just Donald Trump making this argument in a bottle, in a vacuum. I think it's going to be other people t hat persuade them. It has to be done.

Speaker 1:

Michael, I'll see you on Quick Hits Thanks so much.

Speaker 7:

Thanks

dana lewis - host :

Overseas . Trump is viewed by most leaders as chaotic, unpredictable, and an unprincipled leader. In our previous podcast, Russia, shadows , state, a strong cases made to indicate he's under Russian influence, compromised and dangerous to NATO. Unity many will cheer a Trump election defeat this November. Most of the applause, not from America's enemies, but its closest allies. I'm Dana Lewis. Thanks for listening to backstory, subscribe and share. And I'll talk to you.

Speaker 7:

[inaudible] .

stanley greenberg
Michael Shure