China's Zodiac Doomsday Clock

Ex macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former investment partner, Tom Roderick, to review the global macro landscape. This week Tom discusses his new macro essay, China's Zodiac Doomsday Clock. Hugh becomes nostalgic for March 2009 and his slow train journey to Wuhan which revealed abundant evidence of China's property overbuilding 12 years ago. 
Tom explains why their China blow-up fund never made them a billion dollars. The answer was written in the stars. China's wise men acknowledged Confucius - wise man's clock is slower. Beijing's bureaucrats socialised risk and relied upon rapid gdp growth, urbanisation and population growth to remedy the situation.  
The Chinese zodiac has 12 characters like our own system but takes 12 years, not months, to travel the galaxy and back. The gonzo investor shakes his head. A question of faulty time keeping ? 
The boys move on and consider whether inflation is deflationary ? This is macro conjecture for grown-ups and Tom asks why investors never consider debt levels to wealth rather than GDP ? The episode concludes with the contest between real and nominal US Treasury yields...which is the centre of our financial universe ?

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Chapters

• 0:00 Punk Macro - Zodiac Time
• 3:35 China's Doomsday Clock
• 7:45 Wise Man's Clock is Slower
• 15:10 Evergrande is Countrywide Financial
• 23:22 Is Inflation Deflationary ?
• 27:10 An Excellent Neglected Idea
• 31:03 The King is Real or Nominal ?