The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates during their final meeting of the year has ignited discussions in financial circles. While the decision itself was expected, the surprise came with the central bankers' projections for 2024. The Fed now anticipates a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts next year, indicating a departure from earlier projections. This trend is mirrored by traders and economists in Canada, which are now pricing in 4-5 cuts in 2024, totalling 125 basis points, based on potential challenges for the Canadian economy as it seeks to balance growth and stability.
The potential rate cuts have reverberated into the mortgage market, with bond yields dropping significantly. This has led to a reduction of over 40 basis points in fixed-rate mortgages, bringing them into the mid to high 5s. The improved affordability is a welcome change, as mortgage payments for a typical Canadian home have decreased for three consecutive months, totaling a $145 per month reduction. This shift is particularly significant given that housing affordability hit an all-time low in Q3, and the current developments offer a more positive outlook for prospective homebuyers.
The rationale behind the anticipated rate cuts goes beyond the housing market and stems from a broader economic perspective. Canada, 20 months into a rate-hiking cycle, is grappling with weaker-than-expected GDP growth, evident in a Q3 decline of -1.1%. Economic concerns are further exacerbated by a decline in consumer confidence, rising unemployment rates, and a notable reduction in hours worked. Financial services, including banks, have seen a significant decline in employment, indicating a rapidly slowing economy. The implications of these economic challenges are prompting central banks to consider rate cuts as a potential stimulus for economic growth.
Economist David Rosenberg's analysis provides additional context, suggesting that Canada may be heading into a recession with more severity than the United States. The inverted yield curve since July 2022 and Canadian banks tightening credit guidelines indicate a cautious outlook. Rosenberg argues that the government's reliance on debt and excessive house price inflation, coupled with an immigration boom, may be unsustainable, potentially leading to a challenging economic scenario. As the Bank of Canada contemplates rate cuts, the overall economic landscape calls for careful consideration and preparation for potential challenges in the coming year.
As the economic landscape evolves, the real estate sector becomes a focal point for analysis. The Bank of Canada's consecutive decisions to hold rates over three meetings has stimulated a rising outlook in real estate sentiment. Despite consumer sentiment experiencing a decline, the real estate outlook has increased for four consecutive weeks since bottoming in November, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. This could signify an early indicator of what might unfold in terms of sales volumes and prices as 2024 approaches, especially in light of the recent Fed hold and rate cut predictions.
Cautiously optimistic may be the term for 2024 as rate cuts will all but certainly result in an increase in home sales and ultimately prices, though the central banks could then easily change their tone and increase rates again should overall exuberance increase too far.
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