In our latest episode, we ventured back in time to the start of 2023 to review the predications we made about how Real Estate in 2023 would unfold. Beginning with Marco economic drivers, global trends and then backing down into the local economic real estate market. We made bold predictions and share insights on various economic fronts some with great accuracy and others... without!
For example, Covid was a huge topic at the start of 2023 and Ryan's foresight was intriguing, especially his anticipation of a second supply chain shutdown linked to another virus surge - However, the unfolding reality proved he couldn't have been more wrong but as he alludes to in the episode, he was also very happy about being wrong on this one! On a different note, Dan's accurate prediction of a world without more lockdowns demonstrated a more accurate understanding of the evolving situation.
The war in Ukraine emerged as a focal point and while Ryan envisioned a time where the world could have come to Canada for it's vast amounts of energy resources. Unfortunately, governmental restrictions, moral high grounds and not a enough infrastructure built emerged as the limiting factors, overshadowing the potential he foresaw for a potential resource boom.
Navigating the realm of quantitative easing and tightening, Dan's foresight proved accurate as he predicted a Quantitative Tightening (QT) scenario for the remainder of the year, resulting in a drop in Canada's money supply. We discussed the potential of a recession which brought mixed results from both of us. Dan's technical stance against a recession held true, although per capita data revealed a rise in unemployment. Conversely, Ryan prediction of a minor recession aligned with the actual outcome, including his predictions on GDP, inflation and wage growth fell ended up for more accurate than he anticipated.
Immigration took center stage, surpassing the expectations outlined by both Dan and myself. The repercussions on rental numbers unfolded as predicted although neither of us saw rents rising by 8% on average before the end of the year. Turning our attention to the job market predictions framed a 5.2% unemployment rate, Dan's foresight on wage growth and unemployment rates proved remarkably close to reality. Ryan's slightly higher unemployment forecast may yet find equilibrium in future data but not by the end of this year!
We looked closely at Inflation which was running at 6.8% during the initial predictions recording and mortgage rates saw a deviation from both of our forecasts, indicating the unpredictable nature of financial institutions and proving that no one can anticipate Tiff Macklem's strategy or the kinds of information the BoC will deem important at any given time.
Stock market movements are currently near all-time highs as, which when you consider the quantitative tightening that took place over the last year, we're not sure anyone could have guessed the S&P 500 to experience a surge of this magnitude. From there we got into Vancouver Real Estate price prediction, immigration levels, federal, provincial and municipal policy changes and lastly which markets out performed the GVRD in 2023!
Definitely tune into this entertaining episode and have a laugh with us as we found out where we went wrong but also what we got right as we hold ourselves (at times) embarrassingly accountable to our 2023 predictions.
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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA
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Ryan Dash PREC
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