I Can Be Wealthy Podcast

#192 Is the Australian Market a Giant Ponzi Scheme?

February 19, 2024 Salena Kulkarni Season 1 Episode 192
I Can Be Wealthy Podcast
#192 Is the Australian Market a Giant Ponzi Scheme?
Show Notes Transcript Chapter Markers

In this episode, we answer the controversial question of whether Australia's booming real estate market shares unfortunate similarities with a Ponzi scheme.

We also discuss the challenges of affordability and supply in Australian real estate, the pitfalls of negative gearing in property investments, and alternative strategies that could offer better cash flow opportunities.

Enjoy the episode!

TIME STAMPS:

00:00 - Intro
00:37 - Australia's Real Estate Market as a Ponzi Scheme
02:19 - Australian Real Estate Market's Negative Cash Flow
03:37 - Poor Returns from Real Estate Investments
05:22 - Maximising Cash Flow in Real Estate
06:08 - Final Thoughts & Outro


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A recent article boldly claimed that Australia's runaway housing market resembles a giant Ponzi scheme. 

As someone who educates investors, this caught my attention.

The article argues that, just like in a Ponzi scheme, the Australian property market relies on new buyers to pay increasingly higher prices to profit earlier investors.

I have to admit, when I first read this comparison, I felt a bit defensive.

As a property investor myself, I know most people are not driven by greed.

The average mum-and-dad investor simply wants to build enough wealth to retire comfortably without relying solely on government pensions.  

However, the more I reflected on it, the more I realised the comparison does hold some truth. 

Over the last 30 years, housing prices in Australia have rapidly escalated while rental yields remain pitifully low. 

This means investors have to cover mortgage payments out of their own pockets, hoping the market will keep going up so they can profit later. 

New buyers are stumping up more cash to pay higher prices, propping up the cycle.

While I initially bristled at the Ponzi scheme parallel, it highlighted a real problem - property in Australia generates distressing cash flow. 

The question is - if property has poor cash flow, how can we use it wisely on the path to financial freedom? 

 

The Problem of Negative Cash Flow  

As I mentioned earlier, the article argues our market relies on new buyers to pay increasingly higher prices to profit earlier investors rather than genuine rental income. 

Unfortunately, I've seen the woeful returns firsthand on properties worth more than $1 million. 

Even with zero debt, rental yields range from only 1-2.5% - that's just $ 10- 25k annually! 

The cycle continues because everyone hopes their property value will rise to offset the negative cash flow. 

But the shocking reality is that even if you hold a property for decades, the rental returns will never be enough to deliver financial freedom for most people.  

I've run the figures countless times - even unencumbered multimillion-dollar properties in Australia generate dismal income. 

You shouldn't have to drain your active business or wages to support an asset, hoping it might one day make money. 

This reveals that our property market itself cannot provide enough cash flow for investors to reach their goals.

 

Using Property Growth to Fund Cashflow Assets

I've analysed Australia's property market extensively - it can build capital well but fails miserably for cash flow. 

Financial freedom requires more than market growth alone.  

So, what can savvy investors do? 

My advice is to leverage your property gains to buy better cashflow assets. 

You should redirect some gains into assets, providing both capital preservation AND strong cash payouts. 

This two-pronged approach leads more directly to financial freedom than relying on inconsistent property growth alone.

 

Final Words

While I initially bristled at the Ponzi scheme comparison, it accurately highlights the need to escape dependence on market growth alone. 

If you want to be a smarter investor, you can tap into the capital locked in the property while ploughing some gains into other cash-flow investments.

This diversified approach leads more directly to financial freedom than crossing your fingers that prices will keep rising.

The bottom line - work the system by blending strategies, not clinging to property alone.

Intro
Australia's Real Estate Market as a Ponzi Scheme
Australian Real Estate Market's Negative Cash Flow
Poor Returns from Real Estate Investments
Maximising Cash Flow in Real Estate
Final Thoughts & Outro