World War COVID Guerre mondiale: From WeaponWorld to PeaceWorld; Learner, begin... De la terre en armes au monde paisible ; Apprenti, débute

The likelihood of nuclear world war 3

learnermarkv Season 18 Episode 348

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1106222/13366779

LEARNER full text (2024)

PeaceWorld or death

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1106222/13381922

APPRENTI texte integral (2024)

Le monde paisible ou la mort



­WORLD WAR COVID

From WeaponWorld to PeaceWorld

Learner, begin 

The likelihood of nuclear world war

The likelihood of nuclear world war 3 approached 1 (1 = boom, boom, etc.) almost every day from 1945 on through to today. Like the doomsday clock that approaches high noon, the fraction of 1 we shared rose into the red zone close to 1 nearly every day, vibrating perilously close to 1 without interruption for generations. It went higher on bad days (the Cuban missile crisis, technical panics) and downward at times (de-escalation and disarmament). But the needle always hovered close to 1 and never tipped over 1.

Whether accidental or deliberate, no-one wants nuke war. Result? Seventy plus years of perfect no nuke war.

Whether accidental or deliberate, no-one wants a nuclear power plant to go critical. Result? Lots and lots and lots of atomics have gone off the skids: scientific and industrial accidents, government pollution, entire power plants vomiting poison, sunk nuke subs and atomic dumps  making the abyss and ocean shores glow, no safe disposal technology, etc.

Two bureaucracies:

The military: many more decision nodes, open hostility between decision centers, active sabotage of other decision centers, much longer lasting control span, under higher stress, much older and cheaper equipment, prone to failure in many other cases

Civil nuke safety engineers: fewer decision nodes, cooperation or neutrality between decision centers, briefer control span (how long have there been power plants and how many active compared to nuclear arms' timespan and command nodes), under less stress, newer, expensive equipment, trained to higher standards

Two results:

Perfect military score

Imperfect civil score

This is statistically impossible. Given routine military incompetence, humanity should have surpassed the bad civil score much sooner. We should have crossed the fatal 1. All it took was one bad day. The civil group had many, many bad days despite having fewer opportunities for bad days.

No. Extra-human interference must have tipped the scales in favor of military perfection. Above and beyond human awareness, above and beyond the range of human social control. 

There is no other way it works, if you think about it. 

IN FRENCH

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COMMENT?  markmulligan@comcast.net