The Sideline Heat
The Sideline Heat
20 Minutes To Post: Episode 214 (Golden Slipper Day)
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The talk is almost over with Golden Slipper Day almost upon us. Five massive G1's to dissect, with the 2yo feature leaving punters with more questions than answers. But don't worry, the 20MTP Podcast team have them. Listen in for a bit of fun, and as always, good luck on the punt.
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We're right to run. Red light now. Ready to run. They're all set and they're off and racing. The gates crash back in Wagga Wagga. Hello and welcome to another special edition of the 20 Minutes to Post podcast. My name's Nathan Keeve, and I'll take you through this week's edition with Maxie on the sidelines, but that's okay. We're gonna get his thoughts on everything. Golden Slipper Day this Saturday, and that's what it's all about. As I bring you in, Josh. We'll talk recap last week in just a second, but we've got to briefly talk about these five group ones at Rose Hill, and then one down in Melbourne as well. It's a massive card on Slipper Day as it always is. The two-year-olds, have we done the form? Have we dissected it? What's it look like as I bring you in? How are you doing, man?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, good thanks, Nathan. Yeah, the golden slipper this year. One of the more open editions that we've seen in a very long time. This weekend's definitely a moving day with the five group ones in Sydney and the William Reed down there at Caulfield. An intriguing meeting at both places. But yeah, happy to rip into this weekend and a lot of big returns and a lot of big horses coming up this weekend, Nathan.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, we haven't even touched on, I mean, the slipper alone in itself is obviously the main event, but Autumn Glow going around Aliana trying to finally pinch a group one in this preparation. So going to be interesting to dive into all that. But before we do, we've got to briefly recap last Saturday, which was a very interesting day of racing again at Rose Hill. We had the Kumall, uh, and that was taken out in a really impressive style. I thought Josh by Lazura, J Mac, and Waller teaming up yet again. He's got an outstanding record in that race. Does Chris Wally comes to the fore yet again with, I believe, the top weight in the race there, Lazura had to carry the number one saddle cloth and did it with a lot of punters on, but well back late to about that$5 mark. Sabi Halley did the work up on speed. That was the favourite. Um Josh, you were hard against the the three-year-old form, but that horse and also um LA Dancer. I know Max and I were pretty keen. Uh, you were right, but couldn't quite find uh Lazura on top.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I thought the weight might tell the difference with it, but just gone to a new level this prep. Uh was unlucky not to win first. I've just peaked on the run and Chris Waller, J Mac just timed it to perfection. There were some lot of nice runs behind. I thought Fivier was a massive return there. A couple another one nice runs in behind, but all honors to the winner. Had to make grand on a day where it was hard to make grand down the middle of the track at Rose Hill last week. So a fair winner and the combo. J-Mack only needs two more now to break Ollie's record. Will he do it this week? And we'll have to wait and see. But yeah, Lasura carrying the weight was just too good.
SPEAKER_01Well, with that market on the weekend, you'd think he gets it done, but we'll get to that in just a moment. Another winner he had on the day. We go to the race previous. That was the Farlap stakes and 60s. Proved too classy, Federalist on the one-week backup this weekend, ends up in the Rose Hill Guinea. So interesting. We're gonna get a very good indicator of that form line, but it was all about sixties again. Like you said, Josh up on speed, ridden with some confidence there by J Mack and got the job done pretty well, well backed into around a sort of dollar fifty, dollar sixty in the end. So shorts punters rejoice, and maybe even the multi-punters as well. There was a few little multi-options last week, and sixties fit right into that mold.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, well, sixties will head towards the Doncaster now. We'll get in it with a low weight, but J Mack said this horse will be better ridden with cover, but he had to ride it like that last weekend based on how the track was playing. And yeah, it was too good. I couldn't take the shorts, but uh was a solid enough win. I thought Federalist was very good, Nathan close to breaking that duck. Go to another, probably a stronger race this weekend, though. But on the back up will be very interesting to see where Federalist is in your numbers for the Rose Hill Guineas this weekend. And I also thought Panova was a very good run from back in the field. Flew home for fifth, but definitely looks like they've set a prep for this horse to step up to the 2,000 in the finery next week. So very intriguing race, but 60s got the best run and was too good and on to the Doncaster now.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's an interesting thought. You come up with Panova, I agree, was one of the eye catches, one that definitely went in the black book for mine vinyly. Interesting race. Don't know many New Zealand raiders coming over for that one, so it'll be interesting to see how that lines up with the New Zealand form. Because Oh Hope wins, Josh, I think is the name of the horse I'm thinking of.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's the favourite now with Waller, but um was with uh the uh over there for Yulong with uh I think Simon Marsh had it, or um Roger James maybe, I'm not sure. Um but it was definitely won the derby in impressive fashion their last start. No, won the Oaks. I think it won the Oaks. Yeah, won the Oaks last start, and they were gonna go to the Derby, but instead Yulong have given it to Chris Waller for a finery Oaks campaign here in Australia. Early favourite, and um, but he's got two nice chances in it now, Waller with that and Panova.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, he usually does, doesn't he? So it'll be interesting to see what horse uh Jay Mack elects to pick as well, because obviously you'd think he'll get the monopoly on all the rides he wants. So one more race we'll touch on just quickly at Rose Hill was the Ajax taken out by Crystal Clear. I know Josh and I, you and I were very keen on uh Inksuto. Uh was probably one of the best things lick on the day, in my humble opinion. Maybe talking through my pocket a little bit there. But Crystal Clear, win, and you're in now into a Donny.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, no, uh was very good. And you have to give Crystal Clear credit, did do it first up, so they had to give a lot of these horses fitness and yeah, it was in the right part of the track and was too good. In sudo, had the winners back and decided to roll wide. I thought that was a um if he had that run over against Schiller, I'm sure he would have stayed to the inside. And um Militarize beginning to be a bit of a tease for punters, I would say, Nathan. They're back-to-back favourites not getting the job done, hasn't won since its three-year-old campaign. So maybe a few people might have dropped off militarise now after that run. But Crystal Clear gets its chance now in a Donnie with a low weight. Not sure it's up to it, but all you can do is win and make the field.
SPEAKER_01Exactly. I thought there were some good runs in behind, as we alluded to with Judo and a few others. But yeah, a race that I'm not sure we want to be diving into in terms of formalise. I mean, especially when we got she's an alibi possibly going that way, and then even possibly an autumn glow, even though we still don't know exactly what that horse is going to be doing after this Saturday. Let's dive into one race in particular at Caulfield. It was the feature the Peter Young stakes. Obviously, probably a pretty good lead up here for the Australian Cup, usually uh is the right form line to be following there. And it was Birdman. Jeez, this horse has gone to another level this prep. Could be undefeated. Uh was unlucky first up, got the job done second up, and now third up goes bang in the Petey Young. Uh, a little bit of forgive there. Well, some are saying forgive, some aren't, with Buckaroo. Uh, very disappointing visually, but did pull up with a bit of lameness of link for Koff post-race. So interesting to figure that out and what to do with him. I know the short punters uh like ourselves, Josh. I know you and I were keen on Buckaroo, so it was a little bit disappointing. Uh, but Apulia, your uh your uh boy's horse, uh Poulia, I thought was really good late too. Gave Birdman a little bit of a scare, but this horse has just gone to a new level, this prep, and geez, I mean, Australian Cup now you would think the next mode of transport for Birdman, and if it is, geez, he's falling.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, he's a really a chance in that race. So is Apulia. Apoolia was a nice run to get ready for that race. But yeah, Birdman. Waller again pulls the right rein, could have brought it up to Sydney, and said he leaves it down there in Melbourne against Buckaroo, and yeah, that's that's uh obviously a negative with a cough with Buckaroo, but punters a bit like militarized, will be getting wary with Buckaroo. Gets close in these big races, but uh 1800 metres Corfield's meant to be its bread and butter, and um, I know there's an excuse, but I don't think you want to be getting in at those odds for a while yet for Buckaroo. Maybe the underwood this year is probably the race he goes, he probably spells now with that bit of a setback and goes into the spring. But yeah, Birdman looks very good heading towards an Australia Cup. We'll see how many of the horses from the All-Star Mile head that way as well. But looks a looks another intriguing race, the Australia Cup next weekend.
SPEAKER_01It does, a very intriguing one indeed. Before we wrap up, the weekend is gone. I will actually touch on a horse uh that won the last race, and it goes by the whole name of Jigsaw. The only reason we're going to touch on that is because we're going to dive into the William Reed shortly. But Josh, on the one week backup this weekend, but back to last Saturday, what an impressive win in the Vovis gold sprint. Now, look, clearly had the class on this field, had the carry of the 61 kilos, though, with Logan Bates in the saddle, who just seemingly has a terrific record on this horse. Now, to be fair, now you were you're getting the genuine sort of proper sprinters, obviously not, but the market really liked this horse last week back to around$2.70. And now this weekend, I think second favourite at the at the current quote in the William Reed at around that$7. So interesting win. Um not sort of getting your numbers too early here for the William Reed, but I do think an interesting runner to sort of break down heading into this weekend.
SPEAKER_00Oh, outstanding. I mean, they've just spaced this horse's runs to perfection. His horses fully fit after coming back across after winning the group one there over in New Zealand. Led jump, kick, and ran time. Broken minute nine for the 1200 metres. And I think the key for Jigsaw is the same track and trip this weekend on the week backup. A bit more speed in this race this weekend with Tropicus there. So maybe doesn't get its own way. But I mean the horse is in form and you can't knock that and uh possibly a live chance heading towards uh the group on William Reed this weekend.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I definitely agree with you there. Anything else from the weekend just gone you want to touch on, Josh? Any performances? I know Salty Pearl was a really good best bet for you. Uh got the Chockies in that one, but uh outside of that, pretty doubtful myself. But uh anything you want else you want to touch on?
SPEAKER_00I thought Tosima was a nice win, looks a progressive type, and uh obviously the couple of two-year-old winners, but we'll discuss them when we talk about the goal and slipper coming up. But um, and maybe uh one for future group ones is another one we all liked on the pod, which was Modella getting up in the last at Sydney last week, and obviously I believe it's gonna go to the Emancipation and then the uh Queen of the Turf on the day two of the championships. So an interesting one to follow. Always that golden eagle form is solid form line, but back to uh Phillies and May's grade, might be able to win some nice black top following that win last weekend.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, well identified by you last week as well and did win very impressively. And I believe you even knew when I spoke post-race, wouldn't have been out of place in a Cornwall, but obviously things uh didn't go to plan. Take the low-hanging fruit when you can. Well backed into around$3. So hopefully Punners got on that one. Like you said, we'll talk about the two-year-olds as well very shortly when it comes to the golden slipper. We'll break that down and get your opinion on that as well. But let's start with this Saturday. We head to Corfield instead of Mooney Valley. Obviously, usually the William Reed would be there, but tracker innovations mean we end up at Caulfield. Makes it interesting. Like you said, Josh, uh the track and distance specialist Jigsaw ends up here now at Corfield, or at least on the one week backup. Has a lot of performances here. Six starts with two wins at another minor placing at this course and distance. Interesting field because we get the return of Jimmy's star. Absolutely airborne at the end of last prep, putting in back uh back-to-back wins together at group one. Well, the Russell boarding and then taking its group one at the end of the preparation. Has an excellent first up profile and it's been well backed here.$2.15 for Jimmy Starr. Zara and Ma drawn barrier one. Second in the left in the market is that jigsaw third left Tropicus coming off that first up win in the Oakley plate. Angel Capital$10. Double figures everything else. Barraqueel as well at around that$10 second up into the campaign. So, Josh, we'll get your first uh your opinion on the first group ones on the potty. It's the William Reed stakes. Where you looking with this one?
SPEAKER_00Um, I'm with the favourite Jimmy Starr. I just remember first up last year, Jimmy Starr went into an Oakley plate over the 1100 mirrors here and gave them an absolute belting. I think this horse is great, fresh draws. Maps to get the leaders back, gets off their back when he wants to. Mark Saro obviously jumping on this weekend, and I think we'll be too good at the$2.15. I'll just put my 100 to win stake on Jimmy Starr, put it on top. In for second, I've got Jigsaw on the week backup. It's a hard horse to chase down. I just think Jimmy Starr has the class to do that. In for third, I'll put in Angel Capital coming up uh from an unlucky run in the New Market stays at the 1200 metres. John McNeil jumps on this weekend. I just think Jimmy Starr's just right now a better horse than Angel Capital. And then in for fourth, I'll put in Magic Time, who won at this track and trip first up last prep, but I think would be more advantaged with a wetter deck. Tropicus misses my numbers because I just think it's one that needs to be on speed, and I just think Jigsaw might break its heart in this race, going back to Wait for Age. So that's the knock for me on Tropicus, although it does get a soft barrier there, and Jigsaw's got to do a lot of the work coming across from gate 11. But I just see Jimmy Starr picking up the pieces off the back of them, getting the 1-1 and just being too good. So for me, the 400 goes on the favourite here, Jimmy Starr. Now, Max, he's seen it a bit differently. He's gone with Jigsaw on the week back up on top. He really loves the way this horse is in form and thinks it can beat Jimmy Starr, who's first up fresh. Jigsaw might just have fitness on it. So Jigsaw to beat Jimmy Starr. Charmed Stone in for third. And we know Charm Stone won the group one last prep first up. So this horse does run well fresh, and then Angel Capital for Max in for fourth. But what about you, Nathan, for the William Root?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I think it's a two-horse race. I think Jimmy Starr has to be on top. I just think he's the class. Wait for age, specialist here, first up, loves it fresh, loves Caulfield, drawn gate one. I think that's a perfect gate. Honestly, they're gonna be a little bit positive. Sure, they could end up three, four pairs back the rail. I'll trust uh Mark Zara to sort of ride him along a little bit, keep him in that two near the one-one, maybe two back the rail at the absolute worst, and a little bit of luck falls his way. I think he'll be winning. I think$2.15 is fair enough. And so I'll make him my major bet. I'll have 85 the win on Jimmy Starr, but I'm gonna chop out on one horse just to save my stake and get a little bit of profit, and that's Angel Capital. I think$10 is more than fair. I've got this horse mark, second favourite, in my opinion. I think it's over the odds at$10. And it lined up$12 uh in the new market. I thought was one of the best of the beat brigade. Yes, probably got the right run without that little bit of luck, but I want to trust it. I think third up here, ready to peek, gets to Caulfield, it's got a great uh track record here with five starts for two wins and another minor placing, and it does its best to work late. So, like you said, a little bit of speed on drawing gate six. I think it's the major danger, and I think the uh the market's gone a little bit under the radar here with a couple of uh previous winners in the race with Jigsaw and also Tropica. So I think Jimmy Star uh sorry I think Angel Capital is the biggest danger to Jimmy Starr. So that in mind I'll go major bet Jimmy Starr, little saver on Angel Capital. In for third I've gone with Barraquil. Uh interesting runner. Uh that first up run and then a little bit of a setback, so a little minor concern there. But I thought the first up run had real merit behind uh Tentais in the uh our lightning, uh, Black Cabby Lightning down the straight over a thousand metres. I think up to 1200 metres, maybe the end of his trip, but I do think uh he can run well here. He's just had the one go at this course and distance, and it was a win. So I'll take that with some confidence. He's still lightly raced, even though he's a seven-year-old, and he still has upside and he's drawn well. So I think uh Barrakeel can run a bold race. Pardon me. And then if a fourth, like you said, crazy if you don't have jigsaws, at least in your numbers. He's just flying at the moment, and if he can put it together again, there's no reason he can't win again around that seven dollar mark. So we'll definitely come back for some best bets, though, at Corfield. I know. Oh yes, Josh, what's that?
SPEAKER_00No, I just want to quickly ask you the price of Angel Capital. Do you think not to knock him, but do you think that's because of the jockey on the horse?
SPEAKER_01John McNeil. It's possible. Um look, I think he is a little bit out of form. I think most would agree with that, but uh he's drawn the perfect gate for mine, and I just think sometimes you back the athlete. I I'm happy to be forgiving uh of his last art run, even though I thought he was pretty good. So look, I I don't know how much you you sort of equate jockey to to to pricing, unless it's a J Mac, you know what I mean? So with John McNeil on, maybe we're getting a better price with uh with that in mind, Josh. I'm not sure.
SPEAKER_00I just thought I'd ask because maybe um again, if you had like a Blake Shin down there or a Ben Mellum on Mark, even Mark Sarra on Angel Capital, I think maybe the price might be a touch shorter. I don't think you'd be getting double figures, but that's no knock on John McNeil. It's just what the market dictates, and with him on I think Dorse is a$10 chance. But I'm with you, I think by start time Angel Capital will definitely come in. I don't think you'll see$10 on the day.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I totally agree. I think it's a fair price right now, and I'm happy to take it and get something off him if he gets the job done. And my good point you make though with the jockeys. I mean, you think Damian Lane, for example, uh riding in Sydney this weekend, you'd think a jock like him on maybe he can cut that price down a little bit. So interesting thought though. Uh don't disagree with you there. So let's dive back over to Rose Hill this Saturday. This is where all the big group ones are. Obviously, five of them, like Josh alluded to. J Mac looking to break Ollie's record. Can he get it done? Jeez, he might claw ever so closer in the first one we're going to cover. That's race number five at Rose Hill. This is the Ranvan stakes. Only a field of six. But interesting that a runner down the bottom of the page has shown up. Alcantz was dual accepted for the Mannion Cup earlier in the day. However, scratched and is going to the Ranvan. So a little bit of a different dynamic. Thought we might have five runners. We end up with six. And obviously, it's all about Ayano.$1.70 with Chris Waller and J Mac teaming up yet again. Surdelia's second elect,$3.10. Well back there as the second elect in this market. Linderman coming off that cardiac arrhythmia there, second up, but now third up into the campaign, you're getting$10,$12, Steffi Magnetica, 16 Trinity College, and then the outlier in the market, Alcantz, who will give a lot of show a lot of toe in this race, you'd think, at the$71, uh, knowing its tempo would be jump, lead, and attempting to win. Josh, talk me through Ramven. It's going to be a race of tactics. We know that, just with that smaller field. But if you're landed with Aliana on top, are you trying to find a different tact in this one?
SPEAKER_00It's very interesting. I think Gay and Adrian are gonna do the old uh Rhyme or Ano Bryan tactics here and set up a lamp lighter. If Allocant does what it did last start, I think they're definitely trying to set it up for Sir Delius to come over the top late. That's just the feeling I get. I just think Aliana's going too well this prep to get beaten from the map. I think she can sustain at the pace early in the race and will sit in front of Sir Delius, I think, the trip based on the gate. And I still think she's got the stamina. I mean, she did win a derby last year, so she's got the stamina to run a fast pace too. I thought she was unlucky not to be in the finish in the Cox plate last year. I think J Mac ties Ollie's record here. She's just going too good. I've got Aliana on top. I'll just put the 400 on her. I just think she's going too good. And it just feels like Sir Dilius might peak next start in a Queen Elizabeth. That's just the feeling. I've got uh Aliana on top from Sir Dilius. I'll put Trinity College in for third. Scratch from last week to run in the Ramford. I do think, though, the idea is to weak back up into the Tancred. That's just the feeling I get with this horse. This horse might just need one more run before peeking third up, stepping up to the mile and a half. And then I'll put Linderman in for fourth. I think Linderman, uh, if there was no Allocant, I think Linderman would have got um the whole say on a soft lead at the front coming off the cardiac of Remier and would have run a cheeky race, but with Alakant in there, I just see Linderman as the horse that has to bring the rest of the field up. I'll put in for fourth, but I wouldn't be shocked if Linderman bounces back getting to its track and troop, which is the Rose Hill 2000, which sees Linderman do its best work. And saying that, I think J Mac and Walla win this, and I've got Aliana on top. I'll put the 400 on Aliana.
SPEAKER_01No, understandable. I tend to agree in terms of the race shape. I know it's a bit awkward, but she's class. You just have to respect uh what she's done so far. Both runs behind Autom Glow have been sensational. This has been the prep. Third up, rampant, ready to win. I've got it on top, but it's not my betting strategy in the race. Um, I'm just gonna back a horse here. Small win, big placeline. I know it's only a two-dV race, so that's how I'm gonna back it. It's an imaginary hundred dollars. I can do what I want. So I'm just gonna make it very, very simple. I'm gonna have 10 the win on Trinity College and 90 the place on Trinity College to try and maybe knock off Aliana. I thought the first up run was brilliant. I I was gonna make this horse the best bet last week, like you alluded to, Josh. Ended up being scratched, ends up here, second up into the campaign. I know second up. Into quite un quite a grand final. Like you said, maybe I'm a run early, but I just really think this horse has got a group one in it. And I think Chris Wallah thinks so too on that first up run. The form over in Europe is elite with form behind Camille Pissarro over the 2,000 metres. Similar track and trip. That was Chanty. Obviously, Rose Hill's a little different, but 2,000 metres. This is right up his alley. And if it turns into a staying contest with a hot speed, I think it suits him. I think he's going to be very much suited to the race shape here. Drawn barrier two. We get Damian Lane in the saddle. If there's anything that can knock off Aliana in this field, I'm going to back Trinity College to do it. I think it's a very, very good horse on the rise. And like you said, I could be a run early and I might be next start for Trinity College. But either way, I don't want to lose if this horse wins. So small win bet Trinity College, big place bet. Aliana clearly on top, just on rating and what it's done to Dayton. Could easily just win for fun. And it might be a multi-horse for a few other races on the day if you want to do it that way. In for third, we're going with Serdelius. Look, picks himself right there, doesn't he? He was excellent first up off a long break. I think now second up, like you said, a faster tempo with the stable mate in the race. He'll be screaming down the outside late. And then Linderman goes in for fourth. Really interesting runner here, third up off that cardiac arimmique. We know they can bounce back. Has he got the class to beat this slot? I'm not sure. But uh we'll take it, uh we'll we'll take it that he could possibly get the job done. Before we move on from the Ramvin, though, Josh, I know you've got Max's tips up, so let us know what he likes in the Ramvant stakes.
SPEAKER_00Well, Max thinks that Linderman's going to bounce off that cardiac arimmi. He's got Linderman on top, upsetting the stable mate Aliana. Sir Delius in for third, and then Steffi Magnetica stepping up to the 2,000 meters for the first time. Quite intriguing. He's got that in for fourth. But Max is going with the track and trip specialist and uh has Linderman on top in the Ramford.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, difficult Maxi looking for an each way play in the race, and that's what he does. He looks for some value, so good luck to him with Linderman. Could be the one to bounce back off that setback. Let's move on to the next race. This is the Rose Hill Guinea, second group one on the card. We'll be covering. And it's a match race according to the market. We've got Autumn Boy$2.15, and we've got Observer$2.50 making the trip up to Sydney after a couple of impressive wins down in Melbourne. Obviously, the Derby winner. Very interesting horse here, Observer. Uh brings a different form line to the traditional one that Autumn Boy comes out of. Obviously, the Rambit Guineas last time at the mile, stepping up to 2,000 metres. Is it a match race? Could federal st on the one we backup? That's your first horse in double figures at 11s. Everything else is big, big odds here, Josh. How did you break down the Rose Hill Guineas? Another one where it's a small field, could be tactical, but are your team observer, are your team autumn boy, or have you got some X Factor?
SPEAKER_00It's interesting because I'm with you. I think it is a race of tactics, but the more I read this race, the more I see Observer getting a soft lead, and I can't understand why Observer's not favourite. Honestly, I I would swap the first two on the market. I'd have Observer, the short price favourite, and Autumn Boys second favourite. I just think the form, I know uh Autumn Boy's buying she's an alibi who's uh the best three-year-old in the country right now, but that Observer winning the Aussie Guinness level was quite good. And we've had 60s come out and win and Frank the form already last weekend in Sydney and 2,000 metres, I think,'s Observer's trip. It's been there. Autumn Boy, we haven't seen past the mole yet. Observer drawn gate two, Autumn Boy gate three, Observer's going to sit in front of Autumn Boy the trip. And I think$2.50 is a great price to take on this favorite. I just see all the favors in this race going to Observer. Craig Williams on for the first time's interesting, but I trust Craig. He's in really good form at the moment. So at$2.50, I'll put Observer on top and whack the whole hundred on Observer. I just think he maps and gets the best run in the race. So Observer on top in for second. I'm gonna put that same formula from the Aussie Guinea's. I'm gonna put Victoria Spirit in for second and think this horse is gonna run a really strong race. Zack Spain gets to keep the ride. Good on him. And this horse has had two great runs behind Observer. The only horse that's done better by an Observer is Planet Red, who's a really short price favorite. And the Alistair Clark back down in Rose Hill this weekend.$13, I think, is a fair price. And I think it's a great each-way play in the race if you like a horse at double figures. I think it's the best double figure horse in the race. I'll put in for second. And for third, I'll put in the favourite Autumn Boy. For me, just a bit too short. It probably will run out the 2000. It comes out of the best form line buying cheese and our buy, but I just can't uh see that price difference between Autumn Boy and Observer. And then for fourth, I'll put in your boy Nathan Federalist.$11, maybe a touch too short now for him still being a maiden. I could maybe entice a new play at around$15 to$20, but should run a bold race. Weak backup up to the 2,000 metres, soft gate, Dylan Gibbons sticks uh behind 60s last start. So he can put the 60s form through him and the Aussie Guineas form. So we'll run a good race. Is it up to this class? We will find out. But for me, I'm just gonna whack the whole hundred to win and observer and Max's thinking the exact same thing. He's with Observer on top. He's got Federalist, though, in there for second, Autumn Boy for third, and then deal done fast coming out of that different form line behind single choice. But there's form lines behind Observer from the Derby last prep in Victoria. The Victoria Derby got the form line observer there.$26. Thanks all run fourth and run a solid race there. But for me and Max, we both have Observer on top.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, make it three for three. Saint Trifector as Maxi as well. I really like Observer. I think the$2.50 is more than fair. I think I opened$2.70. So if you've got the early spoil, uh you'd be happy with that. I just like like you said, Josh, I just like the tactical uh versatility that Observer's shown in his wins. He can jump, he can hold a spot, he can lead if he has to, if he wants to. And you trust uh Craig Williams to get it right. I think he can. Uh Ethan Brown's done a terrific job, as has Mark Zara on this horse. So Craig Williams, step up, my friend, at short turn to jump, lead, hopefully win, and give Observer another group one on the CV. Was just so good last time. Like you said, Josh, frank the form. Planet Red, I think it's gonna frank the form as well. So I'm happy to be with it. 80 to win on Observer. I think that's more than fair. And I've got to have something on Federalist. I'm just gonna back this horse ad nauseum, aren't I? It's just gonna kill me. Uh but I think it's a really good chance. Uh, you know, third up into the campaign on the one-week backup, albeit you do have to stomach a bit of a price crunch after that 41s last time. I'm still sore about it, but I thought it was a really unlucky run, and one of the runs of the day, really in defeat, when you talked about the track pattern earlier, Josh, it just was really hard to make up ground, and the fact that they did and did it so impressively, like uh like Emodella in the last as well. You just got to sort of take that and give them an extra bump in the in the ratings, and so I have albeit a maiden, but hey, we might see a little bit of shamus award on the weekend. So Federalist I'll have 20 the win on him as well. Went for third, Autumn Boy. Uh, obviously, he's got to go on your numbers. Comes out of that right form line, she's an alibi, Don cast a favourite. This horse was right there, beaten three lengths to be fair, but was clearly uh running into second, so no disrespect there. And here's one for ya. I've chucked in for fourth. It's not really going to impact anything because I'm not really gonna go too much into the multiples, but I've chucked in number nine here. Are you kidding? And no, I'm not. I'm gonna chuck it in for fourth. Um, I think it's going okay.$201, SP profile, SP to dollar 30, its last two starts. I know I broke a maiden at uh, believe it was Malumba. Oh, it was Musclebrook, pardon me, and then ran third in a benchmark 58 at Scone, but did have to carry weight now, drops back in the weights up to 2,000 metres. Look, it's a bit of a speculative one, but maybe one that could fill out the miners and give uh the Masara and Gavin Bratch team a bit of a sight here at the$200. So I've tracked him for fourth, uh and we'll see how that one goes. But I'm with you boys, observer for mine in the Rose Hill Guineas, and a little saver on Federalist just because if he beats me, I will be sick. Let's move on to the next group one, and it's an absolute beauty because it's all about Autumn Glow, the George Rider, 1500 metres, group one level. Jeez, Autumn Glow,$1.30. Take the fixed odds because the world pool we will be a dollar oh four. We're gonna do winks odds here about this horse. There's no doubt about that. But a very interesting field around him, her Josh. Uh obviously, uh Autumn Glow at the dollar thirty. Then you go out, everything's double figures outside of that. So if you want to try and get a beat, you're getting value to find out. Lady Shannandella at that ten dollars is the second elect. Bavewacked uh back to four master now 15s, Pericles group one winner. Well, all-star mile uh sorry, uh faturity winner, uh first up in the campaign. That horse for$16, uh evaporates second in an all-star mile,$23. So there's value to be had. Are you gonna try and get this horse beat though, Josh? That's the key. Audon Glow, a dollar thirty. Is it chips in or is it sort of finding a way to bet around her?
SPEAKER_00Jeez, this is an absolutely stacked race, in my opinion. There's so many horses going different ways. Queen Elizabeth's possibly, Doncaster Miles, you name it. Like Attica coming to this race rather than stepping up to the 2000s, quite intriguing to me. Obviously, they're probably thinking about going to a Donny as well. There's so many ways to play this race, but I don't think she can have it all her own way, but I've got her on top. She's not my bet strategy, though, but I just I have to keep backing her until she lets me down, and she hasn't let me down. And arguably, you could say she's better at Rose Hill than Ramwick. She she just grows, she just keeps getting better and better. Gate seven, J Mac will lobber in the perfect spot. Uh, handles all conditions, good, soft, heavy, you name it. She's just she's a star, and I think she'll be winning, but there is one danger for me that I'm really scared of, Nathan. And this horse has finally drawn a gate, and that's number nine, Lady Shenandoah. She uh scares me in this race. She maps to maybe sit in front of Autumn Glow, and I think she has got a turn a foot from the back and on speed. So for my hundred dollars, I'm just boxing those two in an Xacta. That's the way I'm playing the race. I think it really is a race of those two, Autumn Glow, Lady Shenandoah. Box those to an exacta for$100. That's the way I'm playing the race. In for third, a Fab Rate. I mean, it's gonna get its group one, hopefully, one day, but Maps to get a soft run there just behind the speed. I just think this is a tough race for it. Maybe it can take on She's Narbu and a Doncaster dropping that weight there, but a Fab Rate should run a good race there from a soft gate, Luke Curry, six for the ride. Then in for fourth, I'll put in Baywok, who went to a new level there from the Canterbury last start. I thought it was a great run, but it did draw gate three that day. It's got to come across from gate 12 this weekend. Maybe has to do a bit too much work. But maybe that's offset by I think Rose Hill is Baywok's track. That Golden Rose is its peak run of its career, which was the Rose Hill 400 meters. So if it's gonna run out of strong 1500 meters here, it's gonna be here in the George Rider as a three-year-old getting that little bit of weight relief. Can it hold on against those horses like Aleishananda and Eliana? It might, but I'll put it in for fourth and think the others maybe are just a bit too strong. But the play for me is a$100 box exactor, Autumn Glow, and Lady Shenandoah. For Max, he's going with the three-year-old. He liked what he saw with Baywalked in the Canterbury and thinks it can step up to the 1500 and run a merry dance to beat Autumn Glow. Attica coming back from the Ram with Guinea's in for third, going towards let's say a Doncaster, and then the other Godolphin runner, Pericles, in for fourth. So he likes the Godolphin runners around Autumn Glow here, but Max is with Baywok on top, and I'm having a hundred dollar box exactor Autumn Glow and Lady Shenandoah.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I can see where Max is coming from. An each-way play on Bavewack does make a bit of sense, get a little bit of value out of the race. But I'm with you, Josh. I think this is the best bet of the day. The exactor between these two horses. I think it's a really good bet. I'm keen. Obviously, Autumn Glow, she's the one to beat.$1.30. Don't want to be chips in at that price. And I think the only danger in terms of winning is Lady Shenandoah. I think she's flying. Third up into the campaign, 1500 metres, Rose Hill. Looks ideal for me. She's two for two at this track, and one of them was a group one. I believe she won the was it the surround? No, it was the ground. No, the Cormall. Won the Cormall. Thank you, Josh. Uh, this time last year, essentially. So, and did it really impressively. So, comes off that, hasn't won since that race, but she's been facing the genuine group one quality. We're talking about car Ying Risings and Jimmy Star's back-to-back runs behind Joel Eastar, and both of them, I think you can make genuine arguments she should have won. So now, third up into the campaign, ready to peak. Can she beat Autumn Glow? I'm not sure. But like you, Josh, I think she's the only danger in this race, in my humble opinion. So I'm gonna have a box exacter as well.$100, number eight and number nine, the two girls, Autumn Glow and Lady Shannando. That's how I'm gonna be playing the race. In for third, I've chucked in Bavewacked. Uh, I'm with Maxi there. I get where he's coming from. Um, I just think this is a very, very tough race. And on any other day, he could be the Chipsy and horse. I think he was excellent in the lightning uh he was a massive forgive in the lightning and then bounced back really impressively in the Canterbury, made all just fell a little bit short behind some really good runners. 56 kilos in this field, he's not weighted great. Um, like you said, could be a horse we wait to see it uh either go up or down in trip, drop some weight in the handicaps against some better uh some uh sort of inferior quality, but geez, I think it's going well enough and can definitely win the race. So Bavewack in for third and in for fourth, evaporate. Uh like you. Uh I think this horse is crying out for a group one win. Just needs a bit of lark, draws a nice gate, should be right in it, but just runs into a really, really tough field. I love the run last start. Can it bounce from that? I'm not sure if it can beat uh the likes of Wardenglow and Lady Shannon Duller. And a horse that I haven't put in my numbers that I just wanted for you know for uh multiple punters. Headley Grange is going so so well. Goodness me, that first up run was unreal. Also in the Canterbury Stakes, I thought was well out of its depth in that race, but ran an absolute bolter, second up here,$34. One that you can definitely chuck in your trifectors and first fours for mine, Hedley Grange. Just one I wanted to mention because it's a horse that's very unsung, and I think Maxi gave it a spruk in the race uh as well, uh, first up, and ran a really nice race. So just a horse that I think we can keep an eye on, maybe for something a bit weaker in the future. But as you, Josh, uh Autumn Glow, Lady Shannada, exact them, and you should get a result. Now let's move on to the grand final of the day, the big feature race. It is the two-year-old five million dollar golden slipper. Goodness me, where do you even start with this race? You go down number 14. That's Cheyenne. That's your favourite. Craig Williams takes the steer after J Mac rode this horse to victory last start. Obviously, he's got a Chris Waller assignment uh on in this race. So Craig Williams gets the ride for the Archibald team. Was really impressive winning the Riesling last start, bounced from that run in the blue diamond. So the blue diamond form is the interesting one to dissect here. A lot of horses coming through that form to then have that extra run in Sydney. Cheyenne, one of those ones, and has come up the favourite here. You go back to the top of the page, guest house,$9. Warwoven,$9.$7 there for Streisand. Well backed in uh betting here, the blue diamond winner. And uh, geez, you can just make a case for so many of these, Josh. Where do we start? How do we find a winner in the blue diamond? What's the races that you're gonna be following? I know you know you look at last week's Pago Pago and all these races you can look at as the big features to sort of find the slipper winner. I think it's a nightmare this year. I've picked two horses that I've identified that I'm gonna be backing this weekend, but you could have made a case for genuinely 10 or 11 of these because they are just absolute question marks all over the page.
SPEAKER_00You're doing better than me. I I had to narrow it down to four. I'm having 25 that went on four horses in this year's slipper. I think it's wide open. I do think two things though. One, I think the girls have gone better than the boys this year, personally. And two, I think Cheyenne deserves to be a fair favourite. I thought it was a great run in the blue diamond, and then I think the Riesling win has been the best win of so far of any two-year-old in Sydney. Agreed. This campaign. So Cheyenne deserves to be favorite, but at the price, I just had to take it on with four horses at the double figure quote that I think can run well and Matt to get good runs in this year's goal and slipper. And then on top, I've had to go with a Philly, and I'm going with the only Kieran Ma horse in the race on top, and that's number 13, Spicy Miss. This horse has had a great campaign, had two runs over the 1100 metres and a thousand metres one agrarian girl, and then ran slick time at Ramwick last start on a soft track in the Sweden Brace and was there to get beaten, but was just too strong on the line. Newitt comes up after winning a new market for Derby Racing uh last uh couple of weeks ago. So uh he's got in a group one with Derby Racing before, and I think he can do it again again here from gate five. He gets a nice card into this race, and we've seen the form come out and win with Pembury. So I'm hoping he can do what he did on Cabalas here for Spicy Miss and get the girls another goal and slipper here. Spicy Miss, I think, is the best map horse in the race. And I said the Phillies are going better, so I had to put a Philly on top. So 25 to win on Spicy Miss. In for second, I'm gonna go with the horse that I think uh can win the race, drawn a bit awkwardly, but comes out of a slowly run Todman that I think in a faster run race will go a lot better, and that's number six, Stretton Rawler. I think this horse has gone so well since coming to Sydney. Decided to bypass the blue diamond, gave them a butt butt-whooping, really, uh two starts back, and then last start was just in a slowly run race behind Paradoxium. Paradoxium was able to kick and get clear. I think a fast run race will suit, and I think getting back to Rose Hill is gonna suit Street and Ruler a lot.$3 favorite, and now you're getting$16 here for the slipper. I think this is the horse at the wrong price. So I have$25 to win on Street and Ruler in for third. This is one of your horses, Nathan. I've found it this weekend. I think it's the best maiden going into this race, and Matsu get a right run. Nash jumps on. That's number seven, Sam Barley. So I think it can run a really big race here this weekend. Arguably the most unlucky run in the blue diamond, and then just got beat by the bias in the size last start at Flemington, dropping back to the 1200. Uh, Nash jumps on from a soft gate, gate six. If he gets out at the right time, that's called by Pinatubo. You got us$1.65 Lars Arnegan,$16. I think it's another one that Matson gets a good run here. I've my third 25 to win there on San Balo's. And the last one, I really like Central Europe if we've gone to this race. So I have to be of the horse that was able to beat it two starts back, and that's number nine, Campione d'Italia. Draws to get a lovely run here. Damian Lane won the race last year on Marhooner. He jumps on this one for Waller here. Soft gate gate for 41s last. Can you believe it after a forgive run? But it draws to get a nice run here, had a nice little tickover troll. And I trust Damian Lane is good with these two-year-olds. So at$18, you're still getting a nice price here. So in a wide open race, they're the four I'm going to be back in 25 to win on Nathan. Spicy miss, Stridden Ruler, Sam Barlays, and Campione d'Italia. But I mean, you can make a case for another five in them. I haven't even put Paradoxium or Warwoven in. Cheyenne just misses the numbers. So they're my four, but the but the chances don't stop there. Max is gone with Campione d'Italia on top. He likes that form line as well. To beat Sam Barley, Spicy miss goes in there for third. So he's got three of my runners there, and then he puts the favorite Cheyenne and For fourth, but honestly, you could make a case for 10. But he's with Champion d'Italia, I'm with Spicy Miss, Stradden Roller, Sam Barles, and Campion d'Italia, 25 to win each, and what is a really wide open edition of the golden slipper this year.
SPEAKER_01Well, I love some of what I've heard, and I dislike some of it, but I like a lot of it. Uh, there's two horses there. You boys have both identified that I'm pretty keen on. Uh, but there's one that you both haven't yet. So interesting little race, this. I like you said, I could have backed a lot of these horses. I've narrowed it down to two, just because, like you, Cheyenne, I just respect that win. It was so good, and I think definitely a deserving favourite, but I'm gonna take it on as well with two horses in this race, and I'll start with my on-top pick in this year's golden slipper. We're going back to the top of the page. I am going to go, I'm gonna stick with the boys here. And it's a horse that's just been the sprue course the entire preparation, and I just think now it's being a little disrespected in the market. So 50 the win. I'll actually go 60 the win on my top pick, and that's number three, guest house. I think this has been the sprue course the entire preparation. Obviously, won impressively first up at Crambin. Second up was good behind closer to free. That horse ran second in the blue diamond. I thought that was an excellent run by it closer to free. You can tie that horse into this race. And guest house, I mean, I thought was a really good run. I love I think this was gonna relish the tempo in this race. There's just speed, paradoxy, and more woven. The the you know, the Bjorn pair, they're gonna go forward and it's gonna set a really strong tempo. And from Barrier 10, expect Zach Lloyd to just park in behind the Sun of Home Affairs and just explode down the center of the course. We haven't seen$10 for this horse the entire preparation, and now we get it. I think it's gonna be a very, very good chance and one storming home. So 60 the win on guest house, and the other one that I'm gonna have a little bet on that again, you and Maxie have both tipped up in your numbers, and that's a maiden as well. And that's number seven, Zambales. I think this is a very good chance as well. I thought was excellent in the blue diamond two starts back, came out, SP'd a very short price favorite. Again, it was that up and in day at Flemington. You just had to be up on speed to be making inroads, and this horse was worse than midfield turning for home, exploded through the line, back to 1200 metres, a minor concern. But I think, like you said, Nash in the saddle, quick fast run race, should get that perfect run in transit and watch this son of Pinna Turbo storm down the middle of the track. So, guest house, 60 the win. I'll have 40 the win on Zan Barles in for third. I've got Cheyenne. I mean, that win in the Riesling was just so impressive. Like you, I think that was the most impressive two-year-old win we've seen so far of the preparation. If she comes out and wins, it would not shock. Barrier 12, maybe on the three while I'm from cover, should be okay, and we'll be storming home as well. We're happy to be beat by it, and I would just say well done, Team Archibald, if that's the case. And then in for fourth, the horse that I haven't backed, that I'm terrified that I haven't. How many times have we seen J Mac and Waller at 15 bucks in a group one? Uh Fireball. I mean, it could just be the forgotten runner here. Comes out of that Campion the Italia race. You and Maxi are very keen on following as well. You mentioned Central Europe. What price would that be in this race? Campion around that 18 bucks, maybe a little disrespected if J Mac was on, probably half the quote. That's but now we get Fireball here at$15. Was good in an English millennium, was good last time. Uh pardon me, uh, when beaten in the skyline, albeit a little bit unlucky as well. And J Mac sticks, so there's a lot to like about fireball here, third up, and I just want to add it into my multiples if it gets the job done. I'd just say another horse that I'm a little disappointed didn't make the field, but if it did, I would definitely would have been having a bet, and that's number 18, medicinal. That's a really nice horse. Love that win down the Flemington Strait. Uh, horse to follow out of this race, maybe, or pardon me, if it doesn't get into this race, maybe a size type, possibly. So uh medicinal, an interesting one uh that I could.
SPEAKER_00Could I go to a Percy Sykes? Yeah, maybe a Percy Sykes.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it could be maybe a Percy Sykes, but regardless, uh Medicinal, a horse that I I'm very interested to see where that horse goes. But I'm gonna have two bets guest house and also my other one. Zambarlos. Zambarlos, thank you. She's a bit of a brain melt there. Uh Zambarlos, thereby two in the golden silver. But as you alluded to, Josh, it can make a case for a stack. Go to race number nine. It's the final race we're covering on the podcast and the final group one at Rose Hill. And it's a very intriguing affair. Look out, TJ Smith. There could be a few of these heading that way, and namely, I'm talking about number one Briasa. This is the Kia Ora Galaxy over 1100 metres. Briasa makes its return well backed into second favourite here, 550. But it's the Brisbane Raider, Kelly Schweeder's Grafterburners that owns the market here.$4. Zachie Lloyd in the saddle, 50.5 kilos. Can the younger horse come up to uh come down to Sydney and get the job done? Was excellent last preparation up in Brisbane, but now uncharted territory here in Sydney. Uh last preparation of a horse that I really wanted to follow was excellent. So first up here, interesting, 50.5 kilos. That's your favourite. Let me go back to the top there, Briasa.$5.50. Uh reserve bank$9.50. And you're getting double figures for every other runner, except for Inkaruna. That's an interesting one. Do accepted for the birthday card, number 17 in this field, around that$7 mark. Uh, if it goes to the last, you think a lot of multis would be hitting through the birthday card with Inkaruna, but could end up in the Galaxy. Josh, how'd you break this one down? I thought this was a really tricky race to dissect and maybe the toughest of all the group ones, including the slipper.
SPEAKER_00I agree. Very interesting race. Inkauna makes this field. It is a live chance, but I've got it missing the field at this stage, so it doesn't feature in my numbers. But again, I want to take on the two favourites here. I want to take on both Graft the Burners and Briasa. Now, Graft the Burners in great form. Matsu get uh the right run. It's uh it does have the feel of what Private Harry did last year going into this race, if I'm being honest. But I mean, this this horse hasn't run in a group one since it lost to Cole Archie and the JJ as a two-year-old. So I just think that this is coming up hefty grade-wise. Now, I know Private Harry did last year, but it's tough for these Queenslanders to come down here and take these Group 1s off these Sydney trainers. So I want to take on Graft Burners and Briasa. I just think the gate might have got this horse beat possibly. Now, last year, we all thought this horse was a good thing beat when it drew Gate 13. And it had 54.5 kilos in it last year. Now it's got to carry the 58.5 kilos as a totweight. So just got little knocks on both. I'm against both of them. Again, I'm having 25 to win on four genuine chances in this race. I think it is a wide open addition. But on top, on top on with the golden slipper winner of last year, and that's number eight to Mahooner. I think this horse is going really well. Was unlucky uh against Generosity there, second up after a forgive run in the Black Caviar Lightning. Uh maps to get a better run than Generosity, drops the two kilos. Kieran McAvoy jumps on, and this horse, I think, will uh loves the Rose to 1100 meters, won their first up last campaign. So if it maps to get the right run, I think uh$11. Mahouna I'll put on top. In for second, and another 25 to win. Number 10, Bridal Waltz is going very, very well. I think this horse is very progressive, has the form behind war machine and jigsaw. I think both of them would be competitive in a race like this. Drops down to the minimum 51.5 kilos, and Luke Cartwright gets a group one run. I think he was on uh who ran second to Cabales in the Group One two weeks ago for Moody. Yeah, I believe he was on Gallant Sun, and that was a great ride. So if he can give this horse a nice ride from Gate 7, this horse is a live chance at around the$13. So another 25 to win there. And for third, 25 to win on number five Reserve Bank. This horse isn't going around without some of my money on. I just remember those group one wins uh last prep there in the Goodwood. Now it hasn't been seen since, so that's the knock. But at its best, I think it can run a really big race. And we're just talking about Gallant Sun running second there in a new market. This horse beat Gallant Sun when it went on its run last prep. So it's beat some nice horses on the way through here. So from gate two gets a soft run and has to have some of mine on. So 25 to win there. And the last 25 to win, I know it's drawn wide, but generosity's gone to a new level this prep. I really think it's going well. J Mac, you talk about J Mac at double figures. He's at$13 on this one in this group one. He usually doesn't get rides in this type of race because he can't carry the weight, but he gets the gets the ride here on uh generosity with the 55 kilos, still drops a kilo and a half from the win first up, and just got to get around this field or try and find some gas. But uh I think JMA can do it, and at$13, I'm willing to take the risk. So they're the four I want to back. Mahooner, Bridal Waltz, Reserve Bank and Generosity with Mahooner on top. And just have a couple of negatives against these favourites here in the galaxy. But Max, he does not. He is with the favorite here, Grafter Burners on top. He has it on top from Briasa, so the two I'm making the case against. He's got them as the Quinella. Generosity in for third and in for fourth, hedged coming off that second and the Oakley plate last start. So me and him are seeing it quite differently. He's with Grafter Burners, and I'm with Mahouna, Bridal, Waltz, Reserve Bank, and Generosity 25 to win on each of them in what I think is a quite an open galaxy this year.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, interesting. I tend to agree. You've got one of mine in there that I'll be having a bet on. I'm just gonna have two bets in this race, but I'm with the class, and I think it's a really good bet, Briasa. I I it should have won the race last year. We saw that. It jumped, it went back, it should have won. Uh, Mr. Schiller, if you're listening to the podcast, you're probably not. Who cares about my opinion? Ride like the best horse. Just ride it like the best horse, sit full wide if you have to. Just jump, go forward. The horse has trolled up an absolute treat. Uh, and I'm just gonna trust the trials. Uh, yes, it's got to carry weight, but I think he's the best sprinter here. Of this of the horses in this field, there's probably only one or two of them that I could see going to a TJ Smith, and he's one of them. So, with that in mind, I'm gonna trust him. I'm gonna have 60 to win on Briasa. His first up record speaks for itself. I think he goes very, very well fresh. He loves Rose Hill, and we just need a positive steer. If he can go forward from that gate and offset 14, I think Briasa can be a major player in the galaxy. So 60 to win on Briasa, and on with you, Josh. Reserve bank ain't winning this race without something on for mine. I think this horse is absolutely flying at the moment. Now, look, clearly it's coming off some kind of setback with the fact that it's been a year off the scene after winning multiple groups, sorry, winning a group one at the end of preparation. If you go two starts at the back at the end of the last prep, he beat a horse called Sabage. Now, that horse is absolutely flying and ran a treat in an all-star miles. So we're talking about genuine group one form. I think this horse came out and ran really well, winning the uh Goodwood last prep as well, as you alluded to. Now, first up here, three barrier trials to get it on song, and I think it's ready to do something here. First up into the campaign. Drawing two, we get Damian Lane. I've got to have something onto the$10. I think that's a fair price to find out. So Briasa, the main bet, 60 the win, and I have 40 on reserve bank. In for third, I've chucked in uh Grafter Burners. Uh look, the low weight horse bursting onto the scene. I get it. I just think$4 is a very short priced stomach in this field with a bit of class. So I do think he's under the odds. Yes, a horse like Brias is giving him eight kilos, but there's a reason for that. We haven't seen Grafter Burners against these older horses. So I'm happy to wait and see with him if he comes out and wins, so be it. And then the one you mentioned, Josh, you've got on top, uh, goes in for fourth of mine. That's number eight, Mahoona. Again, comes out of that generosity race. I thought was really good that day. Uh, came out of the lightning originally there first up, but second up, I thought was a big improver, uh, although, albeit beaten by generosity. I thought it was a nice run. Uh, sort of sat outside the leader, gave a nice kick. We should do something similar here from Barrier 10 with Karen McAvoy in the saddle. 52 kilos could do a lot worse. But two bets for mine. I have something on Briasa and I have something on Reserve Bank. Now let's go to the best bets. Let's talk to Maxies first here, because I know he sent through his best bets of the day. He's got a couple. I think he's going to round the grounds as well. If he's got some at Corfield, he's got some at Rose Hill. So, Josh, let us know Max's best bets this Saturday.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, he's got a couple at Caulfield and his phone runners at Rose Hill. He's getting us started nice and early on the weekend. Race one at Corfield is his best bet. Number six car Yin Chi. Undefeated since coming back over this prep from Hong Kong and is looking to go free on the trot. So uh race one, I call the number six car Yin Chi for the best bet. Best Failure runner comes at race five at Rose Hill. He is with Linderman in the Ramfit as his best value runner. And then his next best, he's going against Treasure at the moment, Corfield, race number seven. He is sticking with number two, Damasc Rose. He's given it another chance after just missing last R behind Aha at Flemington. So they're the three bets for Maxi, Car Ying Chi, Linderman, and Damasc Rose. Now, for my best bets, we are gonna go to Corfield, and we have a nice horse coming off. I feel like it was an unlucky run last start on the Oakley plate. We're gonna go to race number six here over the 1200 metres, and we're sticking with number two, point barrow. This horse, I think, can bounce back here in a very big way. Dan Stackhouse jumps back on here. I know he's got to go up to the 58 and a half, but he's got some class at this track and trip, I think. From gate three, I think he stalks the speed here and can run them down at around$2.80. I make that the best bet at Caulfield. Now for my Fairy Runner, we're gonna stick a Caulfield and we're gonna go for a European import here in the lucky last race, number 10. We're gonna go number seven Jack knife for my Fairy Runner at around the$8. This horse has some good European form here. First up gilded for the Kieran Ma camp. Uh, and two really nice trolls coming off a 216-day spell. And I really like that he's got form behind a horse called Opera Ballow. This horse came out and won a group one at Maidan a couple of months ago. So the form line looks good. I think he can run well here, fresh first up, gilded this skilding by Kamiko, Marksara from Gate 4 to get us out in the lucky last there at$8. Jack Knife Mafoei runner. And then uh for Sydney, I'm gonna have a two-bet play as my best at Rose Hill. We're gonna go to the lucky last, and I think if it comes to the birthday card, I think Inkaruna is a really good bet here. It was unlucky not to beat Biedman first up. Tim Clark jumps on from gate six. If it comes here, I think it should win. But if it doesn't, we're gonna have a two-bit strategy and we're gonna save on number five within the law here. First up, I think it's the horse that if in Karuna doesn't come, I think half the quote and jumps at about five dollars here. I really like the trials it's had here. Bjorn Baker, Tommy Berry jumps on soft gate. I think it will run well here, fresh over the 1200 metres here at Rose Hill. So that's my two-bet play here. In Karuna and within the law to go with Jack Knight and Point Barrow for the best bets for me this weekend.
SPEAKER_01I love it. A couple of best bets matching for me and you as well. I'm excited to talk about that in just a moment. And also, I agree with you. I thought in the last uh within the law, looked a nice each way chance, provided in Karuna doesn't show up. But either way, I have something small at$13. I think it's a very, very good price. I'll stay at Rose Hill for my value race, I'm gonna call it, because I'm having three bets in a race here to try and get a favorite beat. We're gonna go back to race number three at Rose Hill, and it's the opponent stakes. I was with Panito last time. This time I'm gonna take it on, draw down barrier 14. There's three horses we can back and try and get this horse beat. First one's number seven, polymnia. Comes out of the same form line. Look poorly weighted from that race coming from that race, but third up here, ready to peak, out to 1900 metres, looks ideal, and finally draws a marble. Drew Barrier 6 first up was a good effort, but then Drew Barrier 12 last time. Now draws barrier three, Zachy Lloyd in the saddle. Should get a lovely run in transit. So Polynia, the main bet. We're gonna have another bet on number 12. That's Maisie. Was only just beaten by a horse called Water Sports. That horse looks like a live chance in that last race at Corfield. Josh was alluding to, so I think we can follow that form with a little bit of confidence as well. Second up, steps out to 1900 metres. She looks like a mere in form, and I'm happy to keep backing her at that$12. And another mirror in form is number one, Machine Gun Gracie. I thought the first up effort was really, really good. We've sat wide no cover behind aha aha. Josh referenced that form uh before as well when uh going through Max's tips. So an interesting uh runner here for mine uh is number one Machine Gun Gracie. So three bets in that race to beat Panito. Hopefully we can get the jobby done there nice and early at Rose Hill. But like Josh, I'm going to Corfield for a couple of my best bets. One of them, the punters have just been all over, and I just have to cop that on the nose. But we'll start with race number six, and that is the Casbolt Classic, over 1200 metres, and that's number two, point barrow. Very, very keen on this horse.$2.80, yes, please. Bassett Bay looks a really progressive type down the bottom of the page there and does get map favours. But this horse is group one form and only has to give them two and a half kilos. I think it's the right form for mine. I'm happy to see it's drawn a barrier, barrier three, and hopefully Daniel Stackhouse can get that lovely run in transit. But the one that everyone's identified as the best of the day, dead set best of the year, is race number nine, number one, planet red. This horse will be winning. I just if it doesn't win this race, Josh, it will not win a race. This prep faired income. It comes out of the best form, has the best form lines, and look,$1.80, multi it and everything you think is a massive chance. Autumn glow, obviously, and a few others that should just be winning. I think this is a best bet of the day.$1.80, yes, please. I know we just chime in on the win line. I think it's a that good a bet on Saturday. But Josh, that about sums it up. It's a massive day this weekend for Golden Slipper Day. The five group ones there, a massive card at Corfield. We've given plenty of best bets, we've given plenty of opinions, so hopefully we found a few winners this weekend.
SPEAKER_00Uh great day, moving day here, the big race day on the calendar for Rose Hill. Good luck to everyone, and thanks for Maxi for bringing his tips on to the pod this week. Give them all strength and good luck to everyone having a bet this weekend. Yeah, we love a strong opinion on this podcast.
SPEAKER_01Linderman to win and take on Eliana. Those are the things we love to hear. So thank you everyone for listening. And as always, good luck on the pun.