The Sideline Heat
The Sideline Heat
20 Minutes To Post: Episode 217 (Sangster Stakes Day)
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Another week, another bumper edition of the 20MTP Podcast is now live! This week it's the Adelaide Carnival of racing heating up with two G1 features to dissect. Plus, the team look to Hong Kong for their Champions Day on Sunday. Thanks for listening as always, and GL on the Punt.
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We're right to run, red light now. Ready to run. They're all set and they're off and racing.
SPEAKER_02Hello and welcome to another episode of 20 Minutes Pose. My name is Max. Joining as always, Nathan and Josh, ready to rip into some of this weekend's racing and recap. Some of the weekend that was. And what a weekend we had, of course, group one action last weekend, as well as the Quokker out west. But it was fireball getting the dub there in the Champagne Stakes for the two-year-old. Not quite the waller runner we thought. And then Bayucht as well. Up on speed domination there. Nasha Willa rode it to perfection. Gets another group one to his name for the Godolphin camp. Yeah, 1400 meter specialist there, Nathan. What a weekend of racing we had. Yeah, done and dusted. And bring on this weekend as we look towards Adelaide and their carnival over there. Three group ones, three days, uh, four group ones in total over their carnival. Um, can't wait for it. But Nathan, last weekend, geez, I can't believe the performance of Baywak. That was awesome up on speed. And also, oh, Campion d'Italia. What do we do with this horse? I mean, he he was always so close. Um, should have won the race, let's be honest. J Mac probably wants it back again. But um, look, all honors a winner, fireball. Um, the Waller Camp, they get another group one winner.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, they do, don't they? Chris Waller obviously baywacked as well, uh, albeit with Cadolphin, but an excellent weekend that was. Didn't quite pick the eyes out of um too many on the podcast last week, but that's why we press on. We look forward to Adelaide as well. J Mac gets the flight to Adelaide before he goes to Chartin as well. Keen to sort of touch on those races on Sunday as well. So it's a massive weekend. The group one action in Sydney may be ceasing, but the Adelaide Carnival, the Brisbane Carnival, and obviously this big meeting at Chartin as well. So keen to dive into all of it. Keep your hand to Italia. Oh boys, geez, we're chipsy in sort of play for me uh on Saturday. Didn't quite get their fireball too good on the day. The stable companion. All of them coming out of that size form, though, that we alluded to uh ended up being the right form. Josh, as I bring you in uh to this week's edition. Thought it was a really interesting race, the champagne, in terms of the complexion of it, but at the end of the day, fireball did get the chalkies and did hurt our feelings a shade, but that's racing.
SPEAKER_01No, well, uh Chris Waller Trifector, I believe, out of the race, was it not? In the champagne. One, two, three for good old Chris Waller. Just not the one we were hoping for. Yeah, J Mac just just misses, but uh all credit to Tim Clark, put his horse in the perfect position in that race and was too good. And then uh Baywok uh just leading domination there, boys, start to finish. That was that was probably hidden him hitting his peak golden rose form there in the all age last weekend, and poor old Angel Capital backers this time, boys, last weekend. Uh they are feeling pretty crooked after that ride. Um, I thought half yours was an outstanding return in the all-age heading up to Queensland. I thought there were a lot of good runs. Jimmy Starr bounced back to near its best, but hard to run it down with the sectionals. Baywok got on front. But two very good rides, one to two group ones, and uh Chris Waller closes in on those 200 group ones.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, he could potentially do it this weekend uh as well. He's got a few good chances going around in Adelaide, that's for sure. But um, oh man, the the stable dominance uh from it, not just with the two-year-olds, the three-year-olds, but yeah basically over the whole carnival. Um, they are the Sydney racing carnival. They are the benchmark that you have to live up to and try and beat. Um, because yeah, when their horses reach their grand finals, they are duly saluting uh and putting in almighty efforts. Um terms of recap as well, out west, Jigsaw ended up winning the Quaker out there. Um, too strong up on speed. Cabalas had it um outside from the wide draw, just wasn't able to go with it down the home straight. And Ray Magnerio, another big finish like it always does out there. Out west um for Willie Pike, has to settle for second in this race, but all honest Jigsaw, um I think that's seven on the bounce, and officially on Streak Watch, boys.
SPEAKER_03Oh, it's unreal. I mean, what a horse, what a marvel. He's just come out of nowhere in terms of this winning form, this winning trend that he's produced. And I'll tell you what, though, it's another testament that we sort of come up with, boys. We talk about it in racing all the time. Positive steers, positive ridden horses, and it just it creates winners. You know, sometimes, yeah, Ramin Rami Nero was good back in the ruck and and sort of that blinking light, that flashing light in the run. But geez, jigsaw, he just does it the hard way, up on speed, tough as nails. And yes, he was rock hard fit, but to keep this horse up, I mean, basically what feels like for about six months, he's just been consistently racing, went to New Zealand, got a win over there, took out the railway, ends up over in uh WA in the Quaker. And um uh Sydney Alderson, she must be absolutely chuffed with how well this horse has progressed this season. And I mean, look, is it as good as a Jolly Star? And some of those TJ runners in Sydney, probably not quite there, but that it's another kit testament to how good you can place your horses, and if you can place them in the right races, get the right setup, and they can continue to win and grow that confidence, and that's exactly what's happened with Jigsaw. What an absolute marvel he is. What is he, an eight-year-old? It feels like he's been around forever. Seven-year-olds.
SPEAKER_02He'll be eight coming up soon. So yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_03Wait till next season. We might even see him in those big races next prep because he's just been absolutely flying. So credit to the team. It it takes a you know a big group of uh uh uh trainer members and and uh ownership to get a horse like this back on track, and they've done it very repressively, Maxie.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and uh just keeps going going on with the bigot fence, Josh. Um, what are the heights potentially of this horse? Um, because could he make an Everest? Like, yes, he's won two group ones, one over in New Zealand and won the William Reed, and it might not have been the strongest edition of that race, but he'd beat a Newmarket winner, fair and square. Um and it was nowhere to be seen as well. Like he's beating half decent horses in this race. And look, if he keeps going the way he's going, he's surely he's gonna end up in an Everest if he if he just keeps putting the picket fence together.
SPEAKER_01Totally agree. Deserves a slot, I reckon, based on just this prep alone. I think it's going outstanding. And 12 slots for an Everest. This horse deserves one. And like you said, uh gave the Newmarket win a win burn. Cabalus just couldn't keep up with this horse, just just keeps going, keeps finding. I know it's only just beaten home, Arkansas Kidd, and Ray McNereo, and it's two big races, and obviously it's beat Angel Capital and the William Reed, but that William Reed form looks better than a Newmarket form at the moment, which is crazy to believe. But um based on the form it's shown this prep, I totally think that this horse deserves in their slot. And the Quoker, I think it was Gray Marketing and Boys getting racing blogger to go over there for the day. I thought that was uh great for them over there. It just felt festive, a good day out over there with him over there. And yeah, Jigsaw too good at um Sandy Audison's this horse has just gotten better with age. It happens, doesn't happen as often as we'd like because a lot of horses get retired before they can show their full potential. But I'm happy for Jigsaw and I'm with you, Max. Definitely deserves an Everest slot.
SPEAKER_02Um, anything else to add from the weekend just gone, Nathan? Um look, it was a little light on for recap races, but even some of the undercut there in Sydney as well, um, like your Hallmark stakes, um uh or your Frank Packer plate. There was a good win there by Matthias as well. Schnitzel Dancer got a dub there and the JB Carr. Um so it wasn't a bad meeting um just gone as well. But um, yeah, obviously focusing in on the Group One winners, um, and even the likes of Marzu and Asterix find themselves back in the winners' circles. Uh a few hard horses to find there, Nathan. But um, yeah, I guess we push on towards next week. Uh that's what the great game's all about.
SPEAKER_03No, that's right. I think it's a bit of a it was one of those ones where the Theo looked like a race of uh sort of uh ascending horses that are sort of ready to head to Brisbane now. Uh, you know, the Doom and 10,000s, the JJ Atkins, and all those sorts of races. That's where we'll see a lot of these uh horses that we saw last weekend. So, as we said, the Brisbane Carnival Josh, and that looks like a ripping carnival. So a few of these horses you'd imagine end up going up uh up north.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, there's always good racing there, boys. Group one racing in Adelaide, Group One Racing coming up in Queensland. Just want to mention a couple of horses quickly, both Observer and Tentauras, obviously both being retired by Godolphin this week, so they'll head off to stud. It's a shame, really, at least for Tentauris. Puts in two bad runs before it gets retired. I would have liked to have seen it um bounce back to its best before they did that, but obviously the stud failure there for Godolphin was too hard to pass up. And I saw um Bart's last ever Melbourne Cup runner precedence passed away uh this week as well. So uh comes to the end of one of the greatest uh chapters of horse racing, Bart Cummings and Dardo Tanchum, their combination will live forever with the Melbourne Cup. It's just sad that um his last ever Melbourne Cup runners passed away.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, definitely yeah, I guess tragic news. But um just back to Tentaurus real quick. Baywoked, he's got the same number of group ones as the Tentaurus. Uh is he a better horse? Because honestly, on his day, oh look, Tentaur is incredible down the Flemington Strait. Don't get me wrong. Baywok's kind of the opposite, can't really handle the straight, loves a bend around at Ramwick or Rose Hill, um, up on speed fourteen hundred metres. Um, and if he gets left alone, I mean, geez, uh uh he was always so honest this campaign. When you look at the likes of the horses, he's fell in behind. I mean, you you just gotta be like he's falling down to you know the likes of your jolly stars, like your your um and your giga kicks, like he's not losing his slouches, but when he hits 1400 metres uh and he has his own way up on speed, I mean, geez, he's hard to run down. He puts together some pretty good splits, Nate.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, but we talk about uh outages in racing, horses for courses, right? I mean, you just think he's a 1400 metre specialist. They know what he is now, you know. Um, you know, he probably had that fresh run at 1200, then ready to peak second, third up, getting to that 1400 metres. That sort of looks like his go. Uh whether it be Randwick or Rose Hill now, that looks like Sydney way are going is is his way. Uh and there's still plenty of options for him. He's still a young horse. Um, obviously, does he turn four in the next season? So he probably he could potentially go towards the Golden Eagles. Yeah, Golden Eagles. Surely, surely, surely. So, yeah, there's plenty of targets for for Team Waller and Godolphin. So, yeah, like you said, uh, though they I mean, and let's be honest, they're gonna get paid with 10 tires and observe uh team Godolphin anyway. So all's well that ends well. I agree, a couple of horses I wish we could see uh the ceiling of, whether or not we already saw it, we'll never know. But uh that's racing sometimes when we've got the stud values that we've got. But we do still have the Bay of Wacks and the Tempteds and the like going around. So that's a positive.
SPEAKER_02Anything else to recap from the weekend just gone, Josh? I I think we touched on everything. I think we're ready to find some winners for this weekend. Um, any last thoughts?
SPEAKER_01No, no, I'm with you, boys. Uh this weekend looks outstanding. Can't wait to rip in with it. Yeah, you're gonna be able to do that.
SPEAKER_02Normally we would touch on uh Sydney and Melbourne, but um oh, obviously the group one racing's over there in Adelaide, so we'll duck over there. Um I'll be touching on a couple races for best bets in Sydney. Um so we'll keep an ear out on that a bit later. But let's start over at Morphville, race number five. The John Hawke Stakes going over the 1100 metres boys. This is uh uh nice quality race here. Neance is rocked up as your favourite here for the Grand Bed Camp, uh Grand Larceny, New York cluster, and watch me win round at those at single figures. It's a pretty wide open race here, Nathan. Um, how'd you break down this pretty nice looking group three race?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, it's tough, really difficult. I think it's a very open race, and we got a$4.40 favourite to prove it. But I kept coming back to number four here nuance. I think it's a very nice mare. She's a six-year-old, lightly race, just the 13 starts for seven wins. But I think she brings in some elite form lines. She was really good uh first up in a Moya last preparation, ran into Barrakeel. That was back uh in uh September, pardon me, of 2025, and then subsequently was excellent behind Gigakick. That was the Giggy Kick run that uh subsequently Gige Kick came out and ran a bolter in the TJ as well. So uh sorry, in the Everest as well. So interesting form lines to follow. I think it's the right one. Comes back here off two really nice trials, particularly the latest one at Packingham. I thought was a nice piece of work. Good first up profile. She's had five starts for four wins on the CV. A little bit awkward here from gate 15. So Jordan Charles, we might need an absolute special. However, I think this horse is very, very talented. She's got the right setup here for mine, and if she gets the speed on, she should be able to sit in behind them and peel out and prove very, very hard to hold out. So number four Neon's on top for me. If we're gonna number six, New York Luster. Interesting runner. I think it finally hit the peak of its powers at the end of the last preparation. Really nice win down the Flemington Strait, but it's earlier runs in the prep with pretty decent well of running second and behind in flight, Brider Waltz form. A few you can tie into the group one feature, Robert Sangster, later in the day. So I think she brings the right profile as well. Again, another horse that's never missed the frame. First up, five starts, three wins, two miners. Draws the perfect gate for Benny Allen in gate four. So they're my two bets. I'm gonna back Neance, I'm gonna back New York Luster. I think they're the main two of the girls in this race, albeit an open race. I think they deserve to be right there at the top of the market. In for third, and the horse that scares me. I'm probably not gonna have a bet on it, but gee, she's talented on a day, and that's the nine. Pisanello. Thought she was decent first up behind Cornish. A little bit disappointing behind Super Smeek, but the barrier there, barrier nine of ten in a moderately run race, just probably didn't quite suit uh this daughter of Ribchester. Uh sorry, son of Ribchester, pardon me. Uh, I think he can run a lot better here third up. Zachie Lloyd in the saddle. Drawn 12, but a bigger field I think suits as long as it gets a bit of cover, should be finishing off nicely. And then the last one, gee, I tell you what,$17 about Oak Hill in a race like this is a very appetizing price. Another one that I want to be including in my exotics if you have them on the weekend. Comes out some really good form earlier in the preparation, particularly last prep as well. Also ran in that Moya, that same form line behind Barra Kill, and most thought a good thing leaked. Subsequently, SP to short price and almost uh got the job done or beaten all by one, and that was Tiger Shark. So, and last this preparation's just been okay. Maybe that's why you're getting the price at around that$19, but at his peak, he's right in a race like this is Oak Hill. But I'll have two bets. Neance, the progressive one, and New York Luster, I think's finally hitting its peak. So really interesting race though, Maxie.
SPEAKER_02Alright, what about you, Josh? How are you breaking down the John Hawke stakes 1100 metres?
SPEAKER_01I'm sticking with the Adelaide form, boys, and I think um number two, watch me win, can bounce um from that first up run and win here second up. It's drawn an awkward gate there in gate 16, but I thought it was a really good run there, just getting pipped by Super Smeek on the line. Gets back on top of the ground to a good deck, but we're gonna need a good ride here from Stubby Holder there over in Adelaide. But I think this horse can jump second up and win at around the$8 mark. So I'll put that on top from Neance. This horse has a bit of class on its side. Scott form behind Giggy Kick. That is uh A-grade sprinting form. So uh whether the horse is ready first up, the strike rate says that it is. But again, another one that's going to need a nice ride from the gate, similar to my horse that I've got in for third, number 11, lose some win more. This horse has progressed nicely through the campaign last preparation, winning back to back to end the campaign. Two nice trials here for the Jolly Camp and has good tracking distance form and good first up form. So if this horse didn't draw gate 19, if this horse drew a softer gate, I might even put on top. I think this horse is quite progressive here and it could run a really big first up race. And in for fourth, I'll put in number 15, Graham Larsney. This horse is first up as well. Had some really nice trials going into this race, might need the run, but another one that I think can run really well. So Neant deserves to be favourite, but with the run under its belt, I've got Watch Me Win on top.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I agree with you there, Josh. Um, I'm with Watch Me Win. Uh only negative is the gate. Uh Barrier 16. They're gonna have to get back from that gate. Um, but yeah, pretty open field um as well. Look, I think they're gonna come down the middle part of the track on the day as well, so I don't mind drawing out a little bit wide. Um, hopefully getting that three wide line with a little bit of cover um coming into the home straight. It's gonna need a really uh good ride. But if this draw, or if this horse draws Barrier 6, 7, or 8, I I think you could probably half a quote, it'll be close to favouritism in this race. Um, hence why I've gone Watch Me Wins way. Uh yeah, it's the one drawn just to its inside as well. Um look another one that's caught out wide there as well. Are they gonna push forward there from the wide barrier? Not sure. Um, yeah, it's a real tricky one to get the speed map um on. So the fact that it's also drawn around the same spot as Watch Me Win, I think I'd rather go with the value, but I understand why it is favourite. Um I've gone perforce five recommendation in there for um third comes out of that battle rat race uh where Spyware was the winner on that occasion. Yes, went around massive odds on an occasion, um, but you're still getting half decent odds,$15 in a race like this. It's certainly not out of place. Uh, and I'll chuck in Grand Larsity to round out the numbers there as well. Um, for everything you boys about line two, about this runner. Um, yeah, another one top of the market, Benny Mellum for the Hawks camp. Give it strength. Let's move on now to the Torburn Bronze Stakes here, boys. This is at group two level, and this is the first time we get to see J Mac on the day as well. Uh he's been to Adelaide before, uh 2024. He wasn't able to salute on that occasion. Um he finished midfield in most of the races he competed on that occasion, but um finds himself on the favourite here this time around, Nathan. So, how do you sing the bronze Torburn stay? So with J Mac on uh Tycoon Star here with the favourite or potentially one of these others to get it beat.
SPEAKER_03Um, I hope he finishes midfield here, boys. Uh, I've got him as one of the lays of the day uh on Tycoon Star. I think it's a very, very classy race. Just been a bit of a bridesmaid uh this preparation, Tycoon Star. Yes, had excuses uh losing the reins with uh Damian Lane first up on that heavy track, and then second up, gee, I thought it was all over the winner when uh regeneration got the beat down right on the line. So third up, 1200 metres. I get it. I just want to be taking him on, and I think there's a horse here, or a few horses here you can make a case for. It looks like again a race where there are a lot of progressive types. One I've landed with, though, is number four, Rosberg. I think the market really gravitated to this horse first up in the preparation. That was about 63 days ago when beaten by Palaton, but jumped, went back to last. And it was on that day, boys, when you just couldn't make ground. It was the travelator was up on speed, you couldn't surge from the back, and I think that was to the detriment. Love the trial since we get Jamie Mellum in the saddle, drawing gate seven in a race with a stack of tempo. Expect her to just park in behind them and produce a slashing run on this Sunday deep field. I think Rosberg's a really good bet at the$5.50. So I'm keen to have a bet on Rossberg. I think he's well placed here, albeit a lightly raced horse. We don't know he's sealing it at all. He could be a special horse, or he's no good and they'll guild him. But in one or the other, I'll take the punt at around that$5.50 on Rosberg. In for second, we're going one of Josh's horses, number one, legacy bound. I thought the first up win was really impressive when holding out Burma Star. Parked him behind, hit the line well, and then second up. I just want to put through the uh put a pen through the run there on a heavy track. Every other run in its career has had uh plenty of merit, including the Kumore uh when beaten by Tentauras, albeit three lengths, but running into third. I want to trust that form. A horse with a good strike rate, two, seven starts for four wins on the CV. So must be respected, and I can understand why it's second elect in bookmaker with bookmakers. In for third, a horse I think the market's a little bit dismissive. I was number seven, mathematician. That comes out of that same race behind regeneration, but was just no chance from back of the field. Jumped, dragged back by Takala Criatha. She had no choice from barrier 10 in the 12 horse field, but the way this uh son of Lucky Vega hit the line suggests that it's ready here to peak fourth up, 1200 metres, after two pretty soft wins prior to that, too. SP profile, you know, boys. I'm a big fan of that.$5,$1.30,$3.40. Now here's$12. If you're gonna back it, here's your time to be backing Math Matition. And then right down the bottom of the page, number 16, Extra Galactic. Go have a look at that win at Caulfield. You will not see a more impressive win. And again, it was on a day where there weren't a stack of runners making up ground from the back of the field. So she could be a nice progressive filly here uh for the Edmonds team. So watch out for Extra Galactic finishing off well. Just put off by the barrier. I thought barrier 13 was a little bit tricky, but if she gets the right run, watch for Zachie Lloyd uh teaming up with this one powering down the center of the course. But I'm pretty keen here, boys. I'm happy to back Rosberg. I think it's a good price. Legacy bound the main danger for me, Maxie.
SPEAKER_02All right. What about you, Josh? Are you with J Mac in this race on Tycoon Star or are you against like Nathan is?
SPEAKER_01I was with this horse first up, and the way it lost, I don't want to be with it again. I am against uh Tycoon Star here. I'm gonna have two bets though. And my on top run is the one you mentioned there for my horse, Legacy Bound. I think it can bounce back here third up and win the race. At a decent enough price here at the$4.60. Mark Sara jumps back on. He's actually underfed on this horse and he's run the tracking trip before, but was as a two year old. But I think he can dictate for From gate one. If the tracks player in the middle of the field, he can lead, bring his horse to the middle of the track, coming into the band. And this horse can sustain a turn of foot on speed. So I think we're getting a good price to find out here third up with Legacy Band. And then in for second in my saver, I'm gonna go with number 12, Alpha Sophie. I think this horse is the one at the wrong price in the race at around the$10. The Moody Coleman camp are on fire at the moment. This horse has run uh ran really well first up, and then I just don't think it handled the straight uh for the first time. Second up, went back and wide third up where point barrow. I thought that was a really good win that day. But this horse, uh, I thought getting back and wide wasn't uh the place to be. It was better to be more uh midfield and closer to the speed coming to the turn. So I thought there was merit in the run. A nice troll, and I think this horse can bounce back here. So$10. I'll save on that if Legacy Bound doesn't win in for third. I'll put in your on-top pick, Nathan Rosberg. The market wants to be hard on it with it again. I think this horse must be ready to run a big race here finally, and uh hopefully it can bounce uh for you there, Nathan, around the$5.50. And then I'll put in the favorite Tycoon star for fourth. But for me, it's too short. It's had a lot of chances, and I think it's better with a bit of giving the ground. So I don't really love it here jumping back on top of the ground, but I'll put in for fourth because it is a classy horse. But for me, legacy bound on top, and I'll be having a saver on our for Sophie.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I'm pretty much in agreements with you boys as well. Found this tough race. Um, Tycoon Star makes the numbers, but I can't have it on top, uh, unfortunately. I've gone with mathematician in this race after one bad run. Uh, all of a sudden everyone wants to pot it. Look, was it a bad run? Just had to settle at the back of the field on a day where you wanted to be a little bit more on speed on that occasion. Hopefully, they can be a bit positive there from Barrier 8. Uh, and Benny Mellum gets the ride this time around. So lots of ticks as well for this horse. Um, and we're getting a nice um yeah, off those SP profiles. Um, you just have to respect it. Like it's set up for a race like this. Um, Alpha Sophie, it's the one that I thought was a real danger in this race too. Brings up point barrow form as well. Um, look, if it rocks up on its day, uh it's certainly going to be running well in a race like this. It was excellent first up um as well. Things just didn't go to plan, obviously, behind get a good feeling, um, but that brings pretty good form into a race like this um as well. But even last start there behind point barrow. I thought its run certainly uh demanded merit. Um so it goes in there for second. The fact we're getting double figures, I can't believe it to be honest. Um Tycoon Star goes in there for third. Um look, back on top of the ground, might be real positive for this horse, but it is starting to become a bit costly. Um got nutted on the post there by um Thanks Gorgeous and regeneration there um on both of those occasions. Um look, it is positive from Barrier Six, does like to go forward, does seem like a pretty good play, and Jamak on board, he'll get the most out of this horse. Um, but yeah, just he's starting to become a little bit costly, and I thought there was good value to be found. Speaking of value, thanks gorgeous as well. Um, yeah, one last start there, beating Tycoon Star. Um, yes, on a bog deck. Um there beat it by only a nose margin, but you were getting$19. Now we're getting$26 this time around. Um look, not sure why it's got such a big um drift on it, and you're drawing nicely from barrier three as well. So yeah, it just ticks plenty of boxes for me. Um thanks, gorgeous. So yeah, I'm betting around Legacy Bound and Rosberg uh for me. Just couldn't find places for them. Need to see how Rosberg comes back um as well, need to see it have another run. And Legacy Bound, yeah, just that last start's really sort of put me off a little bit. Um we're back to the trials, nice trials or nice jump outs, but um, yeah, I want to see it have another run as well. Alright, boys, let's move on to the first of Group Ones. It's the Australasian Oaks, 2,000 meters for the Phillies, and get a good feeling. Two starts, two wins this campaign, um, and onwards and upwards for this horse. Nathan, are you with this uh short price favourite or potentially one of these to try and get it beat?
SPEAKER_03No, I'm all over it. Get a good feeling. It's one of the best of the day. I just couldn't get it beat here. I think it's proves very, very hard to beat. Those two wins this prep have been phenomenal. First one down the straight was not expected. I know the old man had something on at$21, so well done to him. But uh subsequently, SP's at$1.40. Yeah, if you know you're exactly right, if you don't mind. Uh second up at the mile uh at Caulfield was just brilliant when beating Classic Gem. Yes, only one by length, but it was only second up. S dominated with the short price, and classic gem subsequently has been phenomenal, was good in the viny and was really good uh in the uh Australian Oaks in Sydney. So the form's been franked, in my opinion. I think she's been very, very strong. Third up, 2,000 metres. She was SP'd$1.80 in uh the Victorian Oaks at the end of last prep. And I think, albeit beaten uh beaten and beaten well by the one uh Saddle Glove here, strictly business. I think you can tell which one's got the class on its side, this preparation in particular. So drawn barrier five, Billy Egan just gets that lovely run in transit. I seriously I think bad luck gets her beat. That's about it. I think she's a very, very good bet on the weekend. Must go include in every single multi because I think she'll be very, very hard to beat in for second. Gone with Salty Pearl, brings that vinyl form behind Belle Chevelle. I thought was excellent in that race. It was slowly run. So she had every single chance to stay the 2,000 metres. That's probably my main concern with her. I just don't know if she quite gets that genuine 2,000 metres just yet, but we'll find out uh on the week. And she was excellent prior to that, winning over the mile. So must be respected here. The daughter of Tagala, I think, is second elect in the market for good reason. I just don't think she's quite at to that level of get a good feeling, but happy to be wrong and find out on Saturday. In for third off, track to number five here, mating call. Now, Josh, you picked you identified this horse a few times last preparation and was very, very unlucky a few times. Uh, one of those runs was behind Get a Good Feeling, I thought was really impressive. And another one behind uh Ole Dancer that came up in the thousand guineas. So a very interesting run of this campaign was just okay in its first two runs and then went bang in an impressive win over 1800 metres uh last start. Now up to 2,000. I think this is the a really, really dangerous horse, and one that again I'd be including in my exotics if I was playing them. I think she's a very, very nice horse on her day, and albeit by Raisin Bo, I think she's just improving stepping out in trip uh is this three-year-old Philly. So watch for her to be finishing off well. And then in for fourth, an interesting run of it towards the bottom of the page, and that's number 12, Peltro Miss. Just slightly race, just three starts on her CV, but I thought her last latest run behind Savitri, who's in this race, I thought was very, very good as well. And you trust Kieran Maher with his placement of his Phillies and Mayors. So expect her to run a bold race, but boys, yeah, get a good feeling. Uh, of the day at Morpheville. This one is the best.
SPEAKER_02All right, very bullish about it. What about you, Josh? Um, are you with get a good feeling here for the O'Brien camp? I mean, it's been excellent at its first two uh its two race starts this campaign. Can it get the group one to its name?
SPEAKER_01Oh, it's had the perfect prep to do it. I've got it on top. I'm having two bets in the race, but get a good feeling goes on top. I this horse has just gone to uh bigger heights this prep. It was running really well, though, last prep, but just didn't run out uh the Victorian Oaks distance at the end of the prep. But this horse went first up at 1200 metres and then second up to the mole to win like that. It swooped very well. It's gonna love stepping up third up 2,000 meters with the little gap between runs. I think$2.90 is actually a fairly good price here. Maps to get the run of the race for me and definitely goes on top. He having 75 to win on get a good feeling. But the saver, my other 25 is I'm jumping back on Panova Boys, number four. I think it can run well here simply because it's back in Melbourne. I think uh we're back in going Melbourne, Victoria, Adelaide way of anti-clockwise. I think it might be a better horse going anti-clockwise. I love the troll at Flemington and last start. It was just a sit and sprint race. I just think there's a lot more pressure in this race. There'll be a bit of speed and J Mac jumping on this horse at this price. I have to have something on. So 75 to 1 and get a good feeling, but I have to have a 25 to win saver on Panova. Salty Pearl goes in for third because uh that finery form has done well here in this Australasian Oaks the last couple of years, so the form line is strong. And then Maiden Call is the best of the horses from Adelaide. I really liked its run in the lead up race. Should run the 2000 out, but I think there's a couple here that just are a bit of class and get a good feeling. It's one of those. So get a good feeling and a saver on Panova for me, boys, and the Oaks this year.
SPEAKER_02Um look, I'll make it three for three. Get a good feeling on top, just ticks all the boxes. Um, exactly what you want to see leading up to a 2,000 metre group one uh finale. Yeah, I I just think yeah, it's hard to tip around this horse and draws perfectly there from Barrier 5. Um, it'll just be able to jump, settle somewhere midfield, let the speed go, and then just start making a move there at the 600. Um, just ticks all the boxes for me. I agree, Panova. Um, if it drew better, I wanted to tip this horse on top. Um, you are paying a bit of a J Mac premium, I'll give you that. Um, but just last start behind Belle Chevelle, uh look, settled at the back of the field because they drew a wide barrier um and then had to make a big looping run. Its times actually were not too half bad um for the day on the soft conditions. Um but I just go back to its run there in the carbine. Um that was during the Melbourne Cup carnival. I was very bullish on that day uh as well. Tori Berry wrote on the occasion, wrote it to perfection. Um, yeah, it was just a massive win. And I gave me the impression that this horse was just going to be able to find a good race and be able to win a real quality, nice race. And I think this could be it. Um building into the campaign, campaign's been a bit awkward. Starting first up surround stakes 1400 metres. Um lot of other horses like attempted going in towards grand finals. Start after that, um, ran into 60s on that occasion, drew wide on that occasion, so they rode it cold once again. Uh, and then the start of that behind Belle Chevelle over 2000 uh drew wide as well. So look, J Mac could potentially take the risk, push this girl forward, and try and slot in. Um I won't be surprised if they do that because look, she can't be three forever, and this is probably going to be a last opportunity to try and bag that group line win. And now you're fourth up. I don't think she really sees out the 2,000 meters, but um, yeah, she can't. I think she's got a superior turn of foot than a lot of these, but um, yeah, just to try and conserve that and get it from a good position, you can't loop this whole field um to try and make take advantage of it. So J Mac Factor takes a lot of boxes for me, um, and you're getting$8 about it. So that that was the main danger as well, I found in this race too, Josh. Um one at stupid odds that I think is worth a little spec. Horse number 16 here, boys, cushioned. That's coming off a maiden win. Uh their last start at Packenham under the lights, 2,000 metres. Got up and trip. Um, yeah, this one uh by Giaff out of Love Seat. Look, this Villy, just go back and have a look at the one run there at Packenham. Enormous, takes off from probably about the 800 metres, sustains the run all the way through to the finish. Gee, she'll want nearly 4,000 metres uh for this race. She's an out an out stayer. Um, she'll maintain that and look big step up in grade. But I mean, this has been the aim apparently the whole time from the Freedman camp. So yeah, definitely want to be keeping it safe there at$61. Might be worth a little spec in your quaddies. And then I'll chuck in Salty Pearl uh to round up my numbers there, boys. It's been running in the right sort of races to lob in a race like this, but yeah, I was kind of hoping for a little bit more there last start behind Belle Chevelle. Um seemed to have every favour. Draws an earthly barrier three. Um, but yeah, I I've found this race maybe a little bit too deep for it, um, but certainly can finish in the miners. Let's go on to the other group one, boys. It's the Robert Sankster here. Um, yeah, this is a cracking race here for the Phillies and Mares. Um Point Barrow lobbed up your favourite here. Five dollars in the market from Generosity, Bridal Waltz, and Charm Stone and Skybird as well. You're getting decent odds about it, bringing some of that TJ form there behind Jolly Starr. Nathan, how are you seeing this race, the Robert Sankster for the Phillies and Mares over$1,200?
SPEAKER_03I agree. That's got to be the starting point, doesn't it, boys? The TJ. I mean, the horses coming out of the TJ Smith, and one of them's called Skybird, ran third in that race, has form in in in Adelaide, and you're giving me eight bucks. I don't understand it. I think it's silly, I think it's clearly on top for mine. I'm happy to be with Skybird here. I'm gonna have a few bets, full disclosure, but I just think the price here about the the daughter of Exosphere is very, very good. Was good first up two, over a thousand metres behind generosity. She's got the lovely run, but needed the run after a long break, 162 days off. Then again, that TJ run was very, very good. Does she prefer some stinging out of the ground? Maybe. But here, third up, ready to peek, won at the course and distance in the past. I think she's a must-bet here, particularly at the price. I know that you know there's some nice horses here, and you know, you're paying some taxes on some some of the fancied runners, in my opinion, uh, in this race. But Sky Bird for me, I just think the perfect setup, a hot tempo, and should be swooping late. So I'm gonna have 40 to win on Skybird and have it on top in for second. I've got my number four, Benedetta, another horse that comes out of the right form lines, in my opinion, was excellent behind Cabalas uh in the new market, which I know we haven't franked uh hasn't been franked just yet, but then was really good um behind Jigsaw in that again that race that race where you wanted to be up on speed and William Reed, things didn't quite go right, but again, back to Adelaide. Horse hasn't been back to Adelaide in a long, long time, had two starts at this course of distance for a win and a minor placing, and she's just got class. And so when she's been going against the boys in some really high pressure races, I think back against the girls, draws a nice, nice barrier, Jamie Mellon in the saddle. She's won on it before, and I think she can win on it here. And I think you're getting a fair price to find out. So I'm gonna have 20 on better detta. And then another one that I I really liked first up that I didn't back, and I'm kicking myself I didn't, and that's number five, Super Smink was enormous back in the field, hit the line well, and won very, very impressively first up there uh at Mortville over 1100 metres. So if the horse can continue that uh that sort of form, I think uh it can definitely be running a race here, second up into the campaign. Uh Craig Reams jumps on, gets a nice draw there in barrier seven, so I'll have another 20 on Super Smink. And the last one that I'll have a bet on is down towards the bottom of the page, and another one I think the market is just completely forgetting about, and that's number 16, my Gladiola. I mean, what is this horse done wrong to be SPing this price in a race like this? First up was excellent behind Tentairis around that seven dollars, went to the new market against the pattern, was just okay, SP'd four bucks, and then was beaten at$2.30 on a bogged track over 1100 metres. Now goes back to it goes to Adelaide, 1200 metres, drawing gate six, Jamie Mott. I mean, this she's a nice horse, and I think she's being a little disrespected there at the$13. So I'm gonna have four bets in this race to try and take out these favorites. And uh, as I said, I'm gonna start with Skybird, 40 the win, 20 the win, Benedetta, 20 to the win, super smink, 20 the win, my gladiola, and hopefully we can get a result. Horses I haven't mentioned, point barrow could just absolutely flog them, but from barrier 13, I just want to be a little bit skeptical and take it on from that draw. And another horse I'll throw your boys' way, or two horses, one of them's generosity, want to take it on. I don't think it's a 1200 meter horse. And Amina is one that I'd be putting in my quaddy. It's around$41. I think it's a much better, better chance in this race than the price suggests. So I know that was a lot to dissect, boys. I had a lot to say about this race. But long story short, Skybird is$8, and I'm pretty surprised.
SPEAKER_02Yes, yeah, I'm right there with you. Um, what about you, Josh? Um, Robert Sanks to$1200. How'd you find this race to begin with? It's it's a tactical affair, um, because you got the likes of Generosity drawn inside barrier one, could get caught on the rail, or and the other one in the market there and point barrow drawn out wide. So, how'd you break this race down? It's a bit of a tricky one.
SPEAKER_01Well, I'll start with you, boys, by saying free for free for me, boys. Skybird is definitely on top for me, just with the class and the price, it has to go on top for me. I'm having two bets in the race, 250 to win bets. This horse goes on top. Skybird runs third to Joel Eastar and a TJ. That's got to be the best form line for this race. Going back to Adelaide, third up peaking. John Allen jumps back on this horse for the Freedman camp. Won a Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning on it last year. I think third up, it could be going as well as that this year.$7.58 out of$50 to win on Skybird. And my other$50 to win. I'm sorta against you, Navy. My other$50 to win is going on generosity because I think it is the map horse of the race. J Mac again, third up coming out of the galaxy, which I thought was an outstanding run coming from the back. And you're worried about gate one, Max, but if they're fanning off the fence, J Mac's just going to cut the corner. I I can see him getting the perfect cart into this race, coming underneath and then peeling to the middle of the track late with a furlong to go. And I don't think they're going to be able to run it down if he gets that. So they're my two bets. 50 to win Skybird, 50 to win generosity. In for third, I'll put in the favourite point barrow. Uh, could be up to them. It just doesn't meet them that well at the weights as a free roll in this race, but I can see point barrow's going outstanding and that there's a group one horse in the making. And then in for fourth, I'm gonna put in at Charmstone. Sort of want this horse to run well, so we've got another horse going to Royal Ascot. But the negative for me for Charmstone is that its peak runs have been first up, and it's coming into this race second up. So that's my negative for me. But it was a good run, and it is coming out of the right form behind Jigsaw and the William Reed. So it could run a good race if Mark Sarra can get a good run from Barrier 12. But for me, two bets 50 to win Skybird and 50 to win generosity.
SPEAKER_02Just to not to harp on about Jigsaw once again, but just looking at the form. Uh Charmstone for its uh last campaign, its last run it hadn't that uh ran into Jigsaw, got beaten on that occasion there as a short price favourite. Um, and then it lobs uh first up in a William Reed about five months later uh and gets beaten by Jigsaw again while he's still in the same campaign. I mean, yeah, what what a horse Jigsaw is at the moment. Um look, yeah, Skybird, everything you boys have outlined. I've got not much more to add. Um yeah, just ticks all the boxes, and I can't believe the price we're getting about TJ form in a race like this. I mean, what price Jolly Star, what price giggy kick in a race like this. Yes, they started a lot shorter in the TJ Smith and they were expected to run rail on in that race, but Skybird's been disrespected to be um now finds itself third up. Johnny Allen won a group one on this horse before, 1200 metres, um yeah, back to Phillies and Mares. I just can't believe the price, uh, to be honest. Uh it's always been a get back horse, and yes, that is a bit of a low percentage play. Um, but yeah, I I just want to be with it. Um if they do crawl, the one that benefits from that um potential lack of speed in this race is Breider Waltz. Um, they're drawn in barrier eight. Everything on its inside is a bit of a back marker or a horse that doesn't really typically like to lead. Yes, maybe a Benedetta could potentially kick up there from a nice draw in barrier three, but Generosity doesn't like to lead. Um, Strett and Angel, Soft Love, Amina, Gigi's Mistruth, Mike Ladiola, Super Smeek, and Aha. The only other leader potentially in this race is Bossi Benita and straw in its outside. So look, all goes well, and the horse jumps out cleanly. Bright or Walt should just get to the rail and potentially control this race from up on speed. Um, yeah, so it could be a bit of a tactical affair coming into the home straight. Interesting to watch how it unfolds in for third. I've gone with point barrow. Um look, I'm gonna respect it. Um, I thought it was a really good uh what is it, win last time around. Um first up start there uh in the Oakley plate. Um buying Tropicus. Look, got too far back on that occasion. Um if it drew a bit of a gate, might have settled a little closer forward. Doesn't draw a gate on this occasion, hence why we're getting the odds we're getting at five dollars. If it drew barrier three or four, for instance, I think Boint Barrow is probably going to be starting with a three in front of its name, to be honest. It could be right there in the market, but getting odds because of the wide draw. Um and then In for four for chucked in Generosity uh as well. Look, J Mac and Walla Factor can't go past and potentially get that 200 groof one. I mean, there's you have to respect it, let's be honest. Um, but yeah, I I would have liked Generosity if it was at the 1400 metres. Uh, to be honest, I think this horse is better once it gets up a bit more on trip. But hey, have a crack at the stumps, find yourself a group one in Adelaide, why not um have a bit of a go? That's it in terms of the races that we're covering there at Morfortville. But before we dive into our best bets and value, we've got some big races over in Hong Kong, of course. Three group ones, carrying rising, romantic warrior being the main uh horses going around on the day. We'll start with carrying rising in the chairman's sprint. Probably not too much to talk about here, boys. Um look, 1200 meters. Is all it is is just watch the clock, let's be honest. Draws barrier three. Um and who is it gonna be running in for second? Is it gonna be Helios Express once again, Nathan? Or could potentially one of these others, uh like a like a Fast Network or a Sotono Rev upset Helios Express for second?
SPEAKER_03Uh yeah, I was gonna say that's what we're talking about, aren't we? We're talking about the order. Uh Car Ying's just he's just on another level at the moment, like you said, watch the clock, see what he can produce there. Uh and then the the the other three horses in this race, in particular, Fast Network, Helios Express, and Satano Rev, they're running into second, third, and fourth. It's just a matter of the order, and you figure out where you want to, if you want to have a bet in the race and figure out how you want to do that. But uh look, yeah, it's all about car ying and this of the three uh races in terms of betting. Obviously, this is the one where you can just put the feet up and just watch an absolute bona fide champion go around and put them to the sword in relatively stylish fashion. So yeah, I'm very excited to see car ying this weekend, Maxie. What about you, Josh?
SPEAKER_02Can you make a case for anything else? I mean, interesting runner here. Uh Danny O'Brien sending uh Comachi Brave over here to Hong Kong as well. Um, interesting sword.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I did see that. Had a couple of runs uh over in the Middle East there, two placings over at Riyadh and in Abu Dhabi, I believe. So comes with different form lines. You've got to give it that. But um they were mole and 1400 meter race. I don't know if this horse has a great sprint, and but Europeans and sprint races overseas are usually a big negative to begin with, so I can't see it doing too much damage. Um, based on the map, Nathan, I I probably have Helios uh fast network beating Helios Express in for second. I don't know what you think, but I mean Helios Express is just got to be sick of the backside of this horse. I mean, the amount of placings, this horse has made$9 million worth of placings money over in Hong Kong. That's ridiculous. But um the eyes did see they're putting the blankets back on Fast Network, so that could give it a uh and it's map gate two, so it should get the back of Kaying Rising, J Mac, just follow sack the whole way. If they go go a hectic tempo, it probably suits Helios Express coming over the top for second. But with where Sotono Rev is map Nathan from Gate 8, I probably want to be with the Hong Kong horses here, so I'd probably uh do a standout X Actor with um Kaying to win with either Fast Network or Helios to run second. I think that's the play in the race, but nothing's getting near Kaying rising. Can it break a minute seven? That's the new thing for this horse. Can it break a minute seven in Hong Kong? I don't think it will, but it doesn't need to to win this race, boys.
SPEAKER_02Um, yeah, everything all watching the clock uh going around there in the chairman's sprint. Let's go on to the champion's mile. Um, yeah, this is a cracking race. My wish. Lucky Sway Ness as well, back in the winner's circle, which is good to see. Uh, got the likes of even Docklands and Mark Zara um teaming up with Harry Eustace once again. Um, but yeah, the Japanese runner, Jantar Manta, look coming back for a bit of revenge. Um, obviously disappointing last time it was here in Hong Kong. Um, yeah, how do we break this race down, Nathan? Um looks a really, really a really good race, to be honest, um, over the mile.
SPEAKER_03There's a cracker. Uh I haven't sort of dissected it in terms of how I'd be betting into the race, but Jantar Manta, he's just he's a star. He's just going so, so well. Uh, you go back to that foul run behind Voyage Bubble uh in the Hong Kong mile, and ever since that run, he's just come back an absolute force, beat Guy Force uh at Tokyo over the mile, and subsequently was beaten by that horse. They traded victories and then he came out and beat him again uh towards the end of last preparation. That was back on the 23rd. Oh, this preparation, pardon me, that was back on the 23rd of November. And look, comes here in a rich vein of form, draws a perfect gate with Kawada in the saddle. The Japanese have a good couple of horses in this race. Let's not forget about the one that Joe Morrera's on either, the number eight Strauss, a very interesting runner. Obviously, one over in um in uh the United Arab Everettance as well. Uh, and it's form prior to that. They ended up bringing this horse down under for a golden eagle. Um, pardon sorry, pardon me. It was uh the Russell Baldy uh they brought it down for uh in the end, ran beaten by Jimmy Starr, but it ran into on to onto uh inferior ground, which just did not suit. So back on top of the ground, drawing a nice barrier. You can see the Japanese runners doing it running a very, very good race here, and some really interesting Hong Kong horses as well, Maxi, like you alluded to. Obviously, Lucky Sway Ness hitting his straps and finding some form. My wish was a good run in behind in that same race. But my run my eyes are on these four-year-old horses, the invincible Ibis, who J-Mack gets on, barrier five there, obviously won the derby from 2,000 metres back in trip, and then Little Paradise uh with Zach Purton in the saddle as well, draws a nice barrier there in barrier two. So keen to dissect this race uh as we move into Sunday, lads. But Josh, I'll sort of get your opinion on this race, particularly the Japanese. You've got a better um eye on these ones than I would. So sort of get your thoughts, particularly on Gian Tar and just sort of his level and if he's just too good for this lot.
SPEAKER_01Well, he has been over here once and uh he went a miss, unfortunately, the time he came over. But his last run he did win the Mole Championship at Kyoto. So he is coming off a group one win. He hasn't run since, but they wouldn't bring him over if they didn't think he could run well. He's drawn the perfect map. But the Japanese in these mole raises have not been able to beat the Hong Kong horses in some time. I really wanted to make a case for Foyage Bubble if it drew a gate boys. I really liked its run last start behind Lucky Sway Ness, but I don't like gate 12 for this horse. I think Jerry Chow's got to do a bit too much work, Nathan, to uh get across here to get outside the lead. So that was my negative for him. Strauss, I thought the win was actually quite good there over in Abu Dhabi over the mole there. Um ran really good time too that day with Moz on, which I think is a key. Moreira was on that day. He sticks for the ride here in Hong Kong. I think he's obviously told the owners to have a go at this race. Why not? Looks an open race. And for me, I do think the four-year-old horses are interesting. I really wanted Stormy Grove to make this race, though, Nathan. I thought he was going as good as any of the four-year-olds heading back to this Marace. I thought he was going outstanding, but unfortunately, second emergency didn't make the field there for Frankie Law. So I'm probably leaning towards the Japanese to finally break through against these uh Hong Kong runners. But I mean, the map horse is probably lucky Swainus to win again, boys. He maps to get the 1-1 peel out when he wants to. So it's a wide open field. Jantar Manta deserves to be favorite, but yeah, there's definitely a failure to be found in this race if you go looking for it.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, oh, I can't wait to um see what the market does with this race. For one, how they're gonna frame a horse like a Jantar Manta, they're certainly going to be respecting of it as well. Um, they did when it did come over um uh last time around uh over in Hong Kong. Um, but also how that four-year-old form uh lines up is everything you boys have outlined as well. Um let's go on to the other Group 1 feature race. It's a QE Cup, uh QE2 Cup, um over 2,000 metres, and oh, this is just a mouth ordering affair. Masquerade ball, romantic warrior, royal champion SOC. Oh, jeez, oh I cannot wait um for this race. And could the horse, like a SOC, be the forgotten runner um in this race? Although last time we saw it here in Hong Kong, he was able to get group one victory um for Maxine Guillaume. So look, how how do we break down this race, Nathan? Because Romantic Warrior's got to be the starting point, as it always is, um, with J Mac for um Danny Schum. But potentially the rivals that he's up against, um, this could be a real tactical affair with the small horse at eight runners in this race, uh, and they're oozing quality.
SPEAKER_03Exactly. I totally agree, Max. This is a ripper, this is a really, really good field, and Romantic Warrior is going to have to earn every ounce of this win if it's going to go on and get the job done. Because there are some quality horses here, and you mentioned SOC. That's just speed factor. That's the horse that's going to jump, go straight to the front, and really give something to Chase here. Royal Champion, albeit didn't show up here in Australia. Um, when you go have a look at that preparation, but its runs overseas subsequently have been so, so good. Been very, very impressed with how it's gone. I mean, this horse was getting beaten by plenty, plenty of ammo at Mooney Valley. So just a little uh insight into the Royal Champion, but now it's just gone to another level. Uh this preparation in particular was excellent. Winning at Riyadh uh in the in the turf cup over uh pardon me, yeah, turf cup over 2100 metres was a brilliant winner that in that race. Didn't break you know a gangbuster's field by any stretch of the imagination, but justified the short price and did it very, very impressively. Is that the map horse from Barrier One? SOCI, the one on speed, Giovanni's an interesting runner uh that they bring over the Japanese. Also with June Take as well. But the all eyes for me are on number one Masquerade Ball. This is a very, very good horse. And uh again, another one that I'll probably allow Josh to sort of speak to. This guy's form was excellent in the Japan Cup. That was back in November, beaten by Kalandigan, who's just gone on to prove one of the best stain types in the world. And out of that form race is a horse called Croix Denore, who I know Josh had a big opinion of, came out and won subsequently. So the form's been very much franked. Looks like a very, very talented horse. Christophe Lemaire gets the flight over to ride for the land of the rising sun and could prove it very, very competitive against Romantic Warrior. We just don't know his ceiling. Only eight starts heading into this race, and he's so lightly raced, but he's just got so much upside, does the four-year-old. And look, I just think with the market right now and how they've sort of put up the prices earlier. Was he getting$1.30 Romantic Warrior? Masquerade ball at around$4. I think he's nearly a bet. So I just think look, I I if you said pick one on top right now, I'd tip Romantic Warrior, just because I think he's just going so so good, and he's a special horse. But Masquerade Ball, Josh, talk to me. What do you think of this guy? Can he upset the Fave and a few of these other runners as well, you know, your socies and uh Royal Champions, can they maybe cause an upset or is it the top two in the market? How are you setting it?
SPEAKER_01Well, you know, prognosis tried a few times going over there to Hong Kong to try and win this race. Masquerade Ball, I would say, is probably a four-length better horse than Prognosis. So this horse is the real deal, ran second in the derby, won the 10-0 show first up, which is a key race to be able to run well here, ran slick time too, and then, like you mentioned, was nosed by Kalandigan in a Japan Cup. This horse means business here, and I think it's key for this horse too, because this horse is going to get back, but it's only a seven-horse field, which I think is a massive positive for Masgrade Board coming into this. You talked about the horses going forward, Nathan, but the key one's probably numbers. If numbers runs the speed he did in the derby, I would say they're gonna break a track record. Yeah, well. If he goes as hard as he did in the derby, I mean they broke two minutes easy in the derby with Infince Bloiber. So Numbers, I they'll probably obviously try and not go as quick, but you mentioned Royal Champions gonna go forward, so he possibly could go forward. So there should be enough speed there for Romantic Warrior and Masquerade Ball to come with their runs. And if he shows if Masquerade Ball shows its turn of foot from its last two starts, it's gonna be right there in the finish. So at nearly triple the price, the bet would have to be Masquerade Ball for me. I just think it is a classy horse. It's not it's not like your equinoxes or anything like that, but this horse is like just a tier below them, and if it runs to its best, it's a great winning chance.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and and with the likes of a Romantic Warrior in the race, it's like you know Hong Kong's gonna bet up on J Mac and Danny Shul. Uh like it's gonna be starting a very, very short price favorite, regardless of who rocks up against it. Um, it's just whether or not you're happy to take that risk on uh Romantic Warrior at his home track uh as well. Like this is this is his race to you know stamp himself and just like now they're playing in his playground, essentially. But um, yeah, I cannot wait for this weekend. Um what what a cracking three group ones we have on the Sunday to look forward to, boys. Uh I cannot wait for it. Um but that's it in terms of the recap and all the races we're gonna be looking uh forward to. Nathan, got to be finding some best bets for this weekend. You might have given a little preview into one or two of them earlier in the day. Um, you're very keen, obviously, in the Australasian Oaks on the favourite there. Um, get a good feeling. But going around the grounds, rest of Australia, where are they gonna be lobbying?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I was gonna say, Maxi, there's still plenty of racing to dissect around the grounds. Get a good feeling. Best bet at Adelaide, though, as you alluded to, definitely should be winning, in my humble opinion. But we'll actually go to Flemington for one of my better bets of the day. Just the one I've identified there. We're gonna go to race number four on the program. This is a benchmark 74 over 1800 metres. Number 15, Calvary. Looks like a very, very nice horse, but I think it's gonna be scratched, boys, hawks and barriers. They don't like those, they don't like them when they're drawn out. I think they'll be scratching, and so I'm chips in here with number two. That's Muqtalif. I think it's a very, very nice horse, staying type from Europe. First up with the My Racehorse uh silks was very impressive going forward and winning in a very similar race. It was first up 1800 metres with Benny Allen in the saddle. This time we get Logan Bates, takes one and a half kilos off after the claim, gets in pretty well here with the 60 and a half. I think jump, roll to the top and give show them a clean pair of heels here, mukterleaf. Two for two in Australia for the Sun of Sea, the stars, in my humble opinion. I think he's a very talented horse. And I think uh if Calgary comes out, which I think he will, I think will prove very, very hard to hold out. My other two bets are actually gonna head to Eagle Farm for my better bets of the programme, and we'll go with my best bet anywhere in Australia on Saturday. And we're gonna go to race number seven, that's in the Mick Ditman plate. It's over a thousand metres, and a horse that I've been in the in the team and the camp of many a times this preparation. She's not gonna win this race, boys. She's gonna dead set shellactam. Race seven, number five, that is acacia. Second up here, over a thousand metres. The first up run, just an absolute total forgive when beaten by point and shoot. Should have won the race by six lengths, never got outcome. I'm being a bit f being a bit silly here, but hyperbolic, if you will. But I do think she should have won first up. She was coming off of really good preparation to uh a sorry, a lone run last prep, I should say, behind Grafter Burners. That horse frank the form last start when only beaten about a length and a half by Tempted uh in the Arrowfield sprint. So good form there. And this horse has been finishing behind the likes of Point Barrow and Stratton Angel. Uh, and you can tie those in the genuine group one company. Not that this is a bad field by any stretch of that imagination, but the second elect is a horse called Sylph, who hasn't been able to win since I think Jesus Roe. So you can forget about that horse getting in a race like this. So Acacia for mine, best bet anywhere in the country, three dollars, bet up till your thumb is bloody. Then we'll go to the last here, and that is the Brisbane handicap over the mile. And boys, I know it's not your traditional value, it's not double figure odds, but I'm gonna go to the last here. Number one, Antino. How is he seven dollars? I know his two runs this prep have been terrible, but he's just class personified in this race. If he gets any semblance of his Hollandale Doom and Cut form from two preps ago, this price is just absurd. I know was beaten well by Walt and Glow first up in uh over the 400 metres at Ranwick, then went to the all-star mile and was well beaten by Tom Kitten, but things didn't go right. The trial was good, third up, ready to peek here. Yes, has to carry 61 kilos, but it's going to carry 61 kilos against Wellwall. I mean, are we being fair, Incom? Like, I I'm not being disrespectful, but I mean he's carrying a hefty weight against some okay horses. So I think we get a real, real indicator of how he's actually travelling this preparation. Because if he doesn't win or at least run really well here, I would be shocked. He's$7 on the win line, about$2.50 on the placeline. I think he's each way all day, and more than happy to be backing Antino in this race. But that's it for me, boys. Mukhtalif in Melbourne, and also Acacia and Antino in Brisbane.
SPEAKER_02I love it. I love it. What about you, Josh? This weekend, best bets. Where are they going to be lobbying?
SPEAKER_01Well, I've got four boys, but I'll start where Nathan left off. I'm pretty keen, Antino, as well, boys. I just love the price we're getting for the class horse. Freshened after two bad runs with a troll with Tony Gollan back up in Queensland. We all know Antino's at its best up there in Queensland. One for one at the track and trip over the mile. I think it's ready to go here and should be winning. So Antino, one of the better bets of the weekend. Now we'll go to my best bet now, which is Dan Flemington. We're going to race number seven, boys, and we're with the bottom weight here, number 15, Sakuma. I really like that win last start at Flemington with Willie Pike on. Beat the bias of the day, which was to be fairy on speed. This horse came from the back, and I thought was outstanding. Back to Flemington with a bit of a freshen, up to 2,000 metres. This horse is going outstanding. Bo Mertens gets the ride this weekend for the Graham Beg Camp in$2.70. Open$3.10. The market's already having a push for it, and I think it should only run well this weekend. So that's my best bet of the weekend. Now, I've got a couple for you in Sydney. I'm gonna start with race number four, and there's a nice ex-Hong Kong runner going for three runs in a row. And I think I can do it this weekend. We're going to race number four, a benchmark 70 over 200 Meswear with the favorite in number nine, call me gorgeous. This horse has gone to a new level since coming back to Australia. Won a benchmark 64 at Newcastle. Then I really like the win second up. We're a bit of giving the granite at Warwick Farns. Had a nice tick over trial, 24-day gap. Now the good track form doesn't read well, but that's all you run on over in Hong Kong. And I just think it's a better horse now in Australia. So third up, should still be ready to fire here. Schiller on for the Fifer Camp from Gate 6,$2.70. I think that's your best bet in Sydney. And then my fairy runner for the weekend is a dual acceptor. Now it's dual accepted for race five at Flemington, but I wanted to come here. So Randwick, race number seven each way. I really like it. Number 14. Give me space. I think this horse can run really well here, fourth up after Evan. Three nice runs there down in Melbourne behind Miss Icelandic first up. Then thought it was really good by and Meridius, second up. Then the map and barrier just were totally against it there. Third up by Merigold. Steps up to the 1500 metres, goes up in class, gets down to 54 kilos, and it might just be a better horse in the Sydney way of going. And you know there's going to be deductions because both formal display and Lord Abiscay are nommed for the Tamworth Cup on Friday. So you're going to get a deduction if they both come out. But at the price as it stands now, around the$15, I really like giving me space here than each way play. So that's my failure on the weekend. Give me space with Sakuma and Tino and call me gorgeous for the best bets this weekend.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I I agree. I I thought that was a pretty open race as well. Crystal Clear is probably going to be lobbing the favourite here. Um it just needs to go back to its Ajax form uh to be competitive in a race like this. But um I agree, bring me give me space. Um uh behind uh Marigold, that run actually has a lot of merit because I was on that day at Corfield where you just did not want to be on the rail uh and it went up the inside, and about fifty metres after the post, it was past all the other runners. Like it was only building like huge run there, give me space. It's the horse that I'm scared of because I've got a um value runner in this race as well. Gotta laugh at me, boys. It's more superstition, if anything. Yeah, because last time this horse went around um A winner. It won a group one. Talking about horse four. El Costello. First up, Gelded. And it's coming off cardiac arrhythmia. How often do you hear that? I mean, those are pretty good. Like the ROI on both uh horse first up gelded and also off of cardiac arrhythmia, usually through the roof. And now it's got both. Uh coming to this phrase. Yes, went around last start there. Ran 12th of 12, obviously. Things didn't go to plan on that occasion, but they've decided to Geld a group one winner. So look, they want to be getting runs into this horse. And if it can't win a race like this, it won't be winning anything. Benchmark 100 here, now trained by Johnny Thompson. Josh Parr as well, he sticks with as well. Great association with it. And it trailed nicely as well. As you mentioned there, too, Nathan. So look, El Costello definitely want to be keeping it safe in that same race. But I agree, give me space, it looks a cracking bet, too. Other value on the day, I'm going to go to race number six here. And the Anzac Cup 1800 meters. Fascinating race. Markets really come towards this Waterhouse and Botrunner in thrice. I'm going with the horse that beat it going around in a group one over in the uh Irish Derby. And I'm going with Sir Dinneden. Look, had one start here in Australia. Um that was behind Captain Captain Furi. That full mine's been franked as well. 1400 metres. Um it's gone back to the trials, trialed nicely as well. Rachel King jumps on board, draws barrier three. It started half the quote. Mind you, we're talking$80 and$40 of what Thrice started in the um in the Group 1 Irish Derby. Um and now we're getting$13 versus$3.80. Oh, I'd much rather go with a horse. Um, you know, this really nice one by Camelot out of um Amanetti. Yeah, I I I think this gelding's got ability. Um look, where does it end up? Not too sure what its potential ceiling is here in Australia, but it's certainly better than um, you know, a race like this, in my opinion. And now second up. Bit of grounding, I think, is over the odds uh in this race. And then race number one as well, going to a two-year-old race uh and going with horse number 15, Jaiper Mason. Um it's had two starts for its career for a fifth and a sixth, um, but off its most recent trial, it'll definitely be competitive in a race like this. And what looks like a pretty wide open race. So race number one, horse 15, Jaiper Mason. They're the best bets for the weekend, boys. Oh, hopefully we get a stack of winners this week. Uh, need a bounce back after last weekend, Nathan. But we've got plenty of races to sink our teeth into. Cannot wait for this weekend over in Adelaide. First day of their carnival. Can't wait for next week as well. See you again soon.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, exactly, mate. No, keen to recap it all. Hopefully we found a few more winners uh this week than we did last. But that's racing. It's all about moving forward, see if we can find some more, and definitely keen to see all the action this weekend, both here and abroad. Should be absolutely fantastic. Catch up with you next week. And you as well, Josh. Go well this weekend.
SPEAKER_01No, I think we've found a few this weekend, boys. Looks quality fields, and like you mentioned, there's always good racing. Next weekend is the Guineas over at New Market in the UK. So I'll be diving into the overseas form. They're racing starting to get locked and loaded over there. So looking forward to all the racing coming up, boys.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and we start building towards a Queensland carnival as well. Cannot wait. Thanks to all the listeners out there, and as always, good luck on the punt.
SPEAKER_00We're right to run. Red light now. Ready to run. They're all set, and they're up and racing. The gates crash back in Wagga Wagga.