The Sideline Heat
The Sideline Heat
20 Minutes To Post: Episode 218 (Doomben 10,000)
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Another gangbusters edition of the 20MTP Podcast is now live. Covering Doomben, Scone, and even a couple key features back at HQ. Let's rip in. And as always, Good Luck on the Punt!
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We're right to run. Red light now.
SPEAKER_00Ready to run. They're all set and they're off and racing.
SPEAKER_01The gates crash back in Walga Wagga.
SPEAKER_03Hello and welcome to another episode of 20 Minutes Post. My name's Max. Nate and Josh joining me as always. Ready to rip into some of this weekend's racing. And recap, the weekend that was what a weekend we had, boys. Course Hollandale up in Queensland and down south had the third and final day of their carnival, the fourth group one. It was the Goodwood. And boys, oh, I don't want to talk about this race much longer than we have to. Desert Lightning got the bob over Extra Galactic. Um, lobs there, 17 bucks. I mean, how many times have we been giving this horse a spruk uh since it's come to Australia? I think it's second win on Aussie soil, and boy, it's been costly, fallen into it plenty of times at a big, big price. And here it is, lobbing, double figures. No, none of us are on boys. Lucky Nolan, Peter Moody. Stable's absolutely airborne. We should have known. Um, but yeah, Astra Galactic. It was all bar, you know, all bar home, five metres before the post, five metres after. Um just the bob down on the line by Desert Lightning. So pat on the back to the Moody camp. Well done. Another great one for them. But Nathan, as I bring you in, oh, we're on the floor and we're still picking ourselves up. How are you doing?
SPEAKER_04Still reeling, Maxie. That is indeed true, but that's the great game. Sometimes those bobs go your way, sometimes they don't. It was an all-time bob for Desert Lightning, who I think Josh and I were so speaking to each other after the race. In hindsight, maybe a little bit disrespect in the market, just in terms of price. I think he was the only group one winner in that field. So, you know, you look at a race in hindsight that he probably did have the class to win a race like that. I just didn't love the setup for him there over 1200 metres, but well done to punters that did get on all over Extra Galactic on the weekend. I thought it was an enormous effort. I mean, still lightly raced, still a young horse, still going to get plenty of opportunities, you'd hope and think, to try and uh check off that group one target. But boys, you feel sick for the owners. Obviously, they'd thought they got the bob. I thought we'd got the bob live, so I can't blame them too much. But the great game giveth and it taketh away in the same breath, doesn't it? But uh Desert Lightning Josh, yeah, tough horse. Uh very game on the weekend. I thought Extra Galactic proving uh fair enough favourite in the end. Got well backed, sort of fives into four dollars. I thought it was a really good effort. And no fault with Luke the uh Luke Cartwright as well. And another horse that uh you I know you were keen on, Maxie. Um flying for fun. Uh gee, just another tough watch, really. Back on the inside. He's got an act for it now. He does have an act for it. And him and Zachie Lloyd, I think uh they might need a divorce because they just seem to uh always just miss out a little bit. But Josh, I'll bring you in. Uh break down that goodwood just a touch. I know you were keen on extra galactic and a few other little uh uh uh horses at good odds. And the blanket finish, you know, handicapped races, they tend to do that.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, especially on the track that they had there uh at Adelaide last week at Moorefield. Soft conditions, but Ford Every horse had their chance there. Really good run race. Yeah, desert lining. Change of prep, uh 1500 meter molar. They decide to keep him fresh second up to the Goodwood after. Ran a solid race behind, I believe, Recon at Mornington first up. So uh, I mean, interesting form line to go into a Goodwood, but uh got the Bob Extra Galactic. Oh, what was a great run, just missed, unfortunately, on the Bob. There are a couple of nice runs in behind, like you mentioned, flying for fun. And I thought Recon actually in the race was actually quite huge, was a bit unlucky there in the strait. But um, yeah, all honors the winner, and like you said, Maxie, the uh the Moody Coleman combination just winning all over the place, and they time this horse's run to perfection on Saturday.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I'm not sure if they've got any runners heading up towards the Queensland carnival, but um I'm sure they'll have a three-year-old maybe heading towards a derby or potentially an Oaks uh prospect as well. So yeah, geez, just gotta watch that stable. They are absolutely flying. Speaking of flying, oh Pride of Jenny in the Hollandale. That's the other one we've got to highlight too. Um, geez, when she's on song, she's just she's near untouchable. Um beats Birdman, who now boot Birdman, I think we can all put down as like he's well and truly shook the nonny title. Like, I I think he was bold there in defeat behind Pride of Jenny. She's a hustler, was really good there as well. Um, another one that uh us boys were pretty keen on. Half Yoors, um not sure what to make of the run. Look, wide throughout, made a big looping run. I just don't think the race was run to suit um to Half Yours's um preference, gave a huge spec. Um, what is it, what we saw first up coming into this race now, second up. Um so there was a lot of people tipping it on top. But all honest pride of Jenny Nathan, I mean, she when she's on song, she's just too good.
SPEAKER_04She's the definition of a horse racing Marvel, isn't she? I mean, you I just can't decipher her. You know, you think okay, this is the run where she she takes a step back, but really she's fought enough and can get the job done. She blows them out of the park, she puts on 10 lengths, and you go, okay, well, like she's just has to come back. And she just doesn't. She just doesn't come back to them sometimes. And and even when she does, they don't have enough time to come and reel in the margin. Look, she's just uh she's one of the and also she's a definition of a horse I can't catch. I fair dinn. I've probably backed her maybe five or six times. She might as well finish out the rear every time I've backed her because she's just not in the frame when I do. So uh it's just one of those ones where look, if you get on her at the right time, she's been good for her, then so be it. She's a horse where I just cannot back her, and I'm scared to back around her. It's just one of those races that in the Hollandale and her prep in general, it just terrifies me every time I see her in a race because you just don't know which cry to Jenny shows up. If she clears out by 10, 12 lengths, you think, okay, she's on. And then if she's only gapped them by three, you think she's vulnerable. So look, hindsight's a beautiful thing. She stretches out by 10, 12 lengths. She's a hustler, I thought was really, really good. Got the run of the race, but had to drag up the rest of that field. I thought definitely she's on song this preparation. And like you said, Maxi, half yours. I just think hindsight's a beautiful thing with her. Uh him second up into the campaign. Obviously, bigger fish to fry, getting out and trip, Q22s and the like. She'll be uh he'll be improving off that, no doubt about that. The the uh Melbourne Cup winner. And uh yeah, Birdman, like you said, he's just uh a new horse now. Uh so I think second or third Australian prep just continues to progress and and really starts to relish his work. So look, I think it's a it's a form race that we can trust. Can I trust the winner? I just don't know, Josh. Uh she's just one of those ones where I've never been able to really nail her down and find the race for her, but she just keeps lifting. I think even just the Australian Cut Run this preparation, you think, oh my god, okay, she's back and she's a star, and then she gets beat in the cool mall by idle flyer. So I just don't know.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, well, like it like you said, hindsight. If if she's on song and she's putting that margin on in the middle of the race, sometimes she just doesn't do that though, and that's uh that's the uh hit or miss with her. But she usually wins if she's get gets that five, six length margin at the 400 metre mark when she's coming for home. They just don't catch her when she gets that margin. It's just which race you've got to pick the right race. And the Hollandau in the end was the right race for her. She just got that margin. Nothing wanted to push up to get close to her to bring the rest of the field up, and she was just too good. I thought she's a hustler, was very good. Interesting though, considering she's hustler actually uh beat Pride of Jenny home in uh in the mole at uh Greenwick last start, so it shows how much Jenny's improved since that run. Uh like you said, Birdman was outstanding. Half yours. I think the feeling people got thought about last year how Antino bounced out after the all-aged and demolished them in the Hollandale going into the Doom and Cup, and they thought, okay, Half Yo is on song to do that as well. But yeah, like you mentioned, Nathan, after a Melbourne Cup prep, it usually takes one to two runs for them to get back to their best form. So Doom and Cup Q22, I wouldn't be dropping off Half Yours yet. Um, it was a solid run. But I am surprised that um Half Yours didn't beat either She's Asla or Birdman home. It's just the way the race mapped Half Yours was last and just couldn't make that uh ground up again. Um does half yours maybe try and avoid Prota Jenny next start, or do you just uh race against her and see if she can put that margin on again? Very interesting, but um if Pride Jenny's doing that, she's hard to catch.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I I think if you're half yours, you know, in the camp there for the McAvoy team, you've got to stick to your guns. Follow the campaign that you had uh always in plan, which would have been going through a Doom and Cup next start into um uh a Q22. Um so I think yeah, stick to the campaign. I mean, you know, you look at the horse like without a fight as well. Um the year that he ended up winning the Melbourne Cup, he ended up doing the Doom and Cup um, you know, a huge run on that occasion, came through um the Hollandale didn't win that race, um, and it was able to step up and win a uh Doom and Cup, win a Q-22, and then go on to win a Melbourne Cup that year. So I think they're looking at that Queensland campaign as just a nice little tone setter leading in towards the spring. Um like you you can set yourself the big big races, the big targets, but um they know that they want to be heading you know back towards Melbourne, they want to go towards Cox Plate, they want to go towards a Melbourne Cup, and they're gonna go back to back. So I think this year, e even if they don't get a win up in Queensland for their carnival, I don't think it's gonna be you know end of the world for the horse. I think you know they're looking towards a big spring, and they looked at Queensland Carnival's great launching pad, um, Nathan. I and I I sort of agree where they're coming from. If you like half yours um towards the Melbourne Cup, I I don't think there's been any reason um to be jumping off just yet.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, exactly. It's too soon. You know, we there's so much water to go under the bridge. We all know that. I mean, we're talking about the winter rating at the moment, and we're talking about the spring in a couple months' time, and we'll we'll obviously uh the team will reassess and we'll reassess as punters to see where he's at in the in the lineup. And the thing here is I guess this year, now we're gonna be talking about weights in the Melbourne Cup for him, sort of where he's gonna land on the scale. He'd be up on up on top uh towards the top, you'd imagine, especially if he chalks up a couple more wins. If he wins a Q22, if he wins uh, I mean, who so who knows? Maybe a cock's played on the way there. So if he does, then maybe he doesn't uh sort of factor in when it comes to weights and things. A lot of things to to dissect Josh in that regard.
SPEAKER_02Though I guess the question more is do they push Pride Jenny to the Doomban Cup? Or do or is that the end of her prep there after Will and Hollandale, or do they want to uh try and get a group oneness prep because she's already had a massive prep in her own right. She's had four really tough runs and they didn't want to stretch out to the 2000 metres in Sydney. So do they do it up there in Dunban?
SPEAKER_03I think so. I I don't know. It's a tough one. Um, but yeah, I I think they're still looking towards spring. Uh and I think yeah, it's just it's uh they probably looked at the autumn carnival and the autumn campaign. They wanted to you know potentially keep it down in Melbourne on a Melbourne league. Didn't really like what they saw in the Sydney Carnival, there wasn't really a race, um, and probably he didn't come up soon enough um for them to even tackle the spring. So why force it? Why force the issue? Might as well wait. The Queensland Carnival's just as good and just as likely as uh producing horses in the spring, Nathan.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, sorry, but it's just a correction. I kept saying the cool one, it was the Queen of the Turf, uh, pardon me, that Idle Fly won. Queen of the Turf. Uh the the race that Autumn Glacier went to in hindsight.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, exactly, exactly. Um hindsight's a beautiful thing, and geez, we'd be the best programmers in the world. Um, with plenty of that on our side. Um but boys, we're not here about organizing programs, we're not training the horses, you're not the owners. We're here to try and get the punters some winners here, and we're gonna try and back a few for this weekend. So it's probably enough for the recap um because it wasn't too much recap um for the weekend just gone, but there's plenty to talk about this weekend. We got Group One Galore up in Queensland in New South Wales, of course. They've been going to some of the um country and provincial set of venues as well. We got Scone this weekend and their two-day carnival, and down south at Flemington, um, which is where we're gonna start, boys. Um they got one of the lead ups towards the Melbourne Cup as well. Andrew Ramsden win, and you're in. It's a listed race over 2,800 metres. Um Zakuma for the Grand Beg camp has been absolutely airborne, went a little amiss last start there. Um Geordie Childs, he sticks as well. Changing in the guard, second pick there for the Lee's camp off a nice win last start. Um, finds itself in this race, probably really hard for it to program um where it heads to next. This is probably a little tickover before heading up to Queensland. Um Zarea for the Waller camp, and even Western Front, a horse that's been given plenty of spec. Um, Nathan, how'd you break down this race? This looks a cracking edition of the Ambi Rams, uh, Andrew Ramsden. In previous years, it's been, I don't know, a bit a bit of a mystery or lucky dip heading towards this race, but this year looks really strong, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're one of these horses, if they can win this race and elevate to another level in towards the spring, they could be right there in the Melbourne Cup contention.
SPEAKER_04Well, I think a few connections definitely think so, and Zakuma is the one that I'm sort of highlighting there. They've got this horse well prepped into this campaign. The goal's always been get into a Melbourne Cup. So it terrifies me to say I've taken it on this weekend. I think there's some nice prices about some talented horses. I don't know that they're necessarily horses that I'll be following into the spring for Melbourne Cup types, but it looks like grand final day for a few of these key runners, and why not have a throw at the stumps for a free ticket to the Melbourne Cup and a good listed race uh during the winter, so you cannot blame connections for trying. So I'm gonna back a few horses here at some decent odds. And the one that I've got on top, Max, he's a horse that you and I have a bit of an affinity with, and it actually comes out of a Wagger Gold Cup, if you don't mind, stepping up in trip, and that's number six, Flying Bandit. Now, I know that the form lines probably don't read too great. It's been a long prep, five runs, but every run around the 2,000 meter mark, and you want to go off the the uh Bart Cummings theory of you sort of got to get those the miles into the legs, and I think this horse is ready to peak here, six up into the campaign. I thought the run of the Worker Gold Cup was excellent with the 54 kilos, just goes up in weight here, and the set weights won't suit. But I do think this horse is very, very talented, still has a really good strike rate, 21 starts for six wins and four minor placings. And the thing about this Sundaze artist, they haven't really stretched him out in trip. The only time they did, you have to go back to last campaign at Group 1 Company when we're beaten by Royal Supremacy, but I thought he handled himself very, very well. That was over 2400. I think stretching out to 28, yes, a little bit awkward there from Barrier 13, but if Bowmer's can just drag back, get a little bit of cover. I think this uh Kerry Parker train gallopper has a lot of potential here. And at the price, 23s and 5 on the placeline. I'm happy to be backing him each way in a race like this that I think is wide open. While the market is gravitating to a couple of key chances, I'm happy to be spreading my stake a little bit. So I'll have an each-way bet on Flying Bandit in for second. Another horse I thought would improve last start, and it definitely did. And that's number seven, Zareer. That was a really nice effort in the Mornington Cup behind Kings Valley. That was over 2,400 metres. Now stretching out to 28. You go to last year's Sydney Cup. This horse was going very, very well despite being bitten, beaten by Arapaho. Uh, and now it gets in here again, fifth up, ready to win. Drawn a little bit awkwardly in 11, but again, if Ty uh pardon me, John McNeil can get a nice run in transit. I think the$8 looks fair enough. In for third, I've chucked in another interesting runner, and that's number two, pounding. I know it's a well-tried seven-year-old at this point, but I think now stretching out and trip, they've identified this horse as a potential staying type, or at least the Moody and Coleman can't want to try. And like you said, boys, everything they're touching is turning to gold. So if you're having quaddies and multiples, don't leave out pounding. And then in for fourth, I've chucked in uh another one, and it's a Kiwi Gallopper here, and that's number five, Crouch. Now, I don't think it comes out of the A-grade form. Obviously, a last time listed winner at a tacky, but I think this horse can progress, looks like a genuine stayer by Tarzino, draws barrier four, Harry Coffey, should get that lovely run in transit somewhere midfield recover, and I think should be finishing off well. So a race that look, I get it, Sakuma's the one that probably most punters will gravitate to. I thought was good last start and can definitely win this race. I just pulled it the$4.40. I'm happy to be a bet around him and see if I can get him beat and flying. Bennett's the one I've identified, boys. Uh, and at Flemington, I think the best each-way bet of the day.
SPEAKER_03Alright, what about you, Josh? How are you seeing the Andrew Ramsden this year round? Are you playing around the top of the market or reckon some value can be found?
SPEAKER_02Um, there is a bit of value, but I'm playing around the top of the market. But I think$8 is a great price on topic. Now I'm with number seven, Sari. I was waiting to finally see this horse have a good run in Australia, and it showed me that. I know it was at 70 to 1, but I thought there was a cracking run there at the Mountain Cup going down south there, running fifth. And look at the lovely prep run going into this race here. Um, its last win was back in 2024, but it was over this trip there at Chantilly, and I think finally um it's hit a bit of form. And at seven bucks, eight bucks, happy to put it on top. So Sarea for Yulong on top from the favourite Sakuma. I was with this horse last start. I was quite disappointed in the run, but it did go back, got held up for a run, and uh maybe forgive three-week break, stepping up to the 2800. It's by Crowded House, so I think it should get the trip, but I'm just hoping maybe uh Sare, Waller, and New Long might be able to get the chocolates at double the price. In for third, I'll put in the Kiwi runner Crouch. I I'm confident this horse will run the trip out, and at Barries to get a lovely run there at$19. I think you're getting a great price. And then in for fourth, I'll put in number four, New Lock. I um I liked its run two starts ago, and then in the Sydney Cup, I just think it uh made its move a bit too early and was a bit wide late in that race. So I just think it peaked on the run, stepping back to 2800. The negative is I think this horse is far better on soft ground, and I think we're gonna get a good track this weekend, but still$10, and I think the horse is going quite well. And so Mott jumps on that for the bus in Young Camp. So if you like that, I think you're getting a good price. But I'm with Yulong here, boys, and I've got Sareer on top.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I'm playing around similar sort of um horses you boys are, but I reckon changing the guard, just jump, lead, win. I was ultra impressed, uh, like most of us were. Um it's win there in the Sydney Cup. I think it's probably going to be able to replicate this. It's just gonna be able to jump, lead from the front, try and control the race. Um, and if Flemington plays fair, we haven't played there um in a little bit, boys, but uh I reckon it could be right in this race. And look, it's set weights. I just think it ticks plenty of boxes. Um, you know, it's a proven group one winner. And you look at likes of Zakuma, yes, it's working its way through the grades nicely. Um, and even Western Front, the other one as well, that's in the market there too. It's coming off a win there at a benchmark 84. So look, just on weights and measures and um ratings, I just gotta go with changing the card. Um at the$5.50, I think he should be a firm favourite. Um, you know, do we think he should be shorter than four bucks? Probably not. But you know, the 550 on offer, I've got to have a spec at it. Um, you know, I I I thought that was an ultra win there in the Sydney Cup. Um in for second, I've gone with Saria. I reckon it is the danger. It's just drawn a bit awkwardly out there in Barrier 11. Um I thought it was fair there in that Mornington Cup, but I thought it had its chance um as well. It is a bit of a get back horse, so depending on how the day plays, if you want to be up on speed, play heavily more into changing the guard. But if you don't, um if you can make up ground, Saria's probably going to be the one as well to get back from that wide gate. In for third, uh, I've ended up going with a favourite here, Zakuma, and then rounding out my numbers. Yeah, I went that Wagga Cup goal, uh, Wagga goal cup form as well of Flying Bandit there behind Bianco Vellano. Uh Bianca was able to turn the uh tables this year round. Um but I think Flying Bandit is just working into the campaign nicely now sixth up. Um so it's plenty Dower, but I mean I I I think he is that Dower sort of type that will improve and now is ready to you know be winning races further than 2,000 metres. Um so yeah, I see where you're coming from, Nathan. I reckon it's worth a little spec at the each way. Let's work our way up the Eastern Coast, boys, um, before we head up to Queensley and the group one racing. Let's touch on Scone as well. Um yeah, cracking two-day carnival. They got yeah, they got the cup on the Friday, as well as a few feature races on the Saturday. We'll touch on the Saturday races and we'll start with race number seven here, boys. The Denisus Joy. This is for the three-year-old Phillies. Aggerwood has lobbed up your favourite in a pretty even market um from Mercy Me, Acacia, um, Agatha, Miss Freelove, just those in single figures. So, Nathan, how are you breaking down this race?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, look, I'm again another race where I'm happy to take on the favourite. If I had a layer the day segment, this would be one of them. Um I'm not really sure how they've got uh Agabwood this short. I think deserving to be right there in the market, but as you sort of alluded to as Akuma, Maxi, I'm not sure exactly uh should be that kind of a price. I'm happy to have a couple of bets in this race, and one of them I've got a massive opinion of, you boys know I've tipped her up a few times here, and that's number two, Acacia. I cannot believe we're getting$7. I think it's a more than fair price. Look, a little bit of an awkward barrier, I understand that, out and 14, but she'll drag back and she'll might give them a bit of a start. But I was really impressed by that win, albeit on a heavy deck up in Brisbane. That was at Eagle Farm, but that lovely suck run peeled out, proved too strong. But that was over a thousand metres. I think she's better stepping out to sort of 11, 1200. Third up into the campaign, bitter sting out of the ground doesn't hurt her chances, uh, even though I do think we'll be on a decent deck here at Scone. But after a day's racing on the Friday, I'm expecting them to get a little bit off that rail. So the barrier's not as bad as I think uh some punters might think. So barrier 14 looks scary, but it could be a benefit uh later into the carnival. So happy to be with a cacia on top. I think$7 is more than fair. And the other one that I want to have a bet on is down towards the bottom of the page, and that's number 13, goes by the name of Gorgeous. I just think SP profile for me, boys. You know that I'm a big fan of that, and yes, it was beaten first up at uh Hawkesbury at a short price, uh, beaten around$1.40, if you don't mind. But I like to forgive them off a run like that. Was back last, hit the line well. I think second up, short price profile. Now you're getting$19 in a much tougher race, but I love the trial between runs. I think she's a very nice filly on the rise, the daughter of so you think. And I think she can run a really bold race here at the$19. So happy to have something on Acacia at the seven, something on Gorgeous at the 19s. In for third, I've chucked in number four, that's Miss Freelove. I think this is another horse that's been a little bit disrespected in the market.$10 here. I thought the run behind Golden Strand first up at Warwick Farm was very, very good. And you go back to last prep, beat a horse called talk to be sure at the Gold Coast, went well backed and well uh and uh saluted very, very well for punters. So I think this is a horse on the rise again, lightly race, nine starts for three wins, can definitely win a race like this second up, and hasn't lost second up either. So at around that ten dollars, I'm gonna back all three of those. I think seven dollars acacia worth$10 for Miss Free Love and 19 for Gorgeous. Hopefully, one of those three can get the job done. And I've chucked in that favourite as I alluded to, Aggerwood in for fourth. I just think a little bit too short for mine, happy to take it on. And even Cassarouse, another horse I've uh had an opinion of. I've I've chucked just missed down on my top four. So another one that you could chuck in your multiples. But yeah, pretty keen to bet around this favorite with a few chances, Maxie.
SPEAKER_03All right. What about you, Josh? How are you seeing the Denise's joy over the 1100?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I'm against Agarwood as well. I just fancy it too short. Um, very similar to Nathan. Just uh swapped the first two runners around, boys. I've actually got gorgeous on top at the price. I just think$19 is a really good each-way price to find out. I really liked actually the first up run. They just went so slow and it just couldn't make the ground up late there first up with the troll. From a soft gator, won't be as far away from them, I think, this weekend. And I just think it will run you a really good each way race. So$19,$5 a place. Oh, it's gorgeous there each way on top number 30 from Acacia, uh, barrier 14, not too negative, but if it gets too far back with the top weight, it might be hard to run them down. There does look a fair bit of speed in this race, though. So if you can make ground back and wide there, it's going on Saturday.$7 will look quite nice. I've got Casserus in there for third. I it was unlucky not to win last start, but Basilic beat it, but it's dropping six kilos from that run. So I think it will push forward from the soft gate and it'll be hard to chase down. So if you like casserous, I think$13 is a good price for that one. And then I'll put Miss Free Love in for fourth. Like you mentioned, I really like the run there first up. Uh just a tick over troll there, and it's undefeated second up. So um, and I like the form a couple of preps ago behind Point Barrow. So there's a lot of value in the race. I like all four of those runs that I've picked, but at the H way price I've put Gorgeous on top.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, seeing it very similar to you boys. Um, I've gone with Acacia on top. Um, the barrier is the only danger, but we're gonna need a price to find out. Um, I think$7, fair price, happy to gamble around that. Um, I've gone with the favourite Aggerwood in there for second. Um look, drops down in grade, has been fair enough. I thought it was a very good first up, but a very short price start after that behind Get a Good Feeling. I thought it was a pretty good run as well, and even um the run in behind Beskar as well, it was a bit of a boil over um on all fronts on that race. Um look, I thought it was pretty bold there on that occasion. It can lob into the right spot there and gets the right jockey as well. Um you know, and brings that playing to form as well, which we've seen that form line go gangbusters as well. So I I think the$4.80 might be a little bit short in a very, very wide open race, but um I definitely want to be respecting of it. I've gone with Agatha in there for um third. Look, it's coming off a made and win, but boy, what a made and win that was. Um you can't do much more than what it did last start. Um yes, it towed up some less competition and was expected to do so at$1.50, but it won like a dollar fifty favourite should. Um just jump, lead, win, and kick at the top of the straight and kick hard. Um so plenty of ticks there for Agatha. Might have had a little bit of track bias on that day, so maybe a little bit of caution there, and then um Cassero to round out the numbers there as well. Um a scallopper there for the pride camp in Godolphin colours. Alright, let's move on to the next race, boys. Race eight, the Ortensia today at the same um uh at the same distance here. Golden Strand this time has lobbed up the favourite. Um, how are you seeing this one, Nathan?
SPEAKER_04Uh toughest race of the day that we're covering, Maxi. I dead set, get your dartboard out, because uh this is a mess. Um look, I'll tip you into a few, but not uh with a lot of confidence. But you've got 20 runners, so you don't want to put field in the quaddy. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, we've got to cut it down a little bit, don't we? But um, so on top, I've actually found uh number eight on top here, Verido. I think it comes out of some pretty good races. I know it was a shade disappointing behind Spidewire last time, but just mitigating circumstances, Drew Paul Lee, forced back and wide. And but I thought hit the line okay, despite beating 8.2 lengths. The run prior to that, you can actually tie it into Meridius, who ran in the Goodwood. So I think you can tie into some pretty decent form there. Uh Goodwood type of form in a race like this. I want to be respecting. And I love this horse's strike rate, 12 starts, four wins, six minor placings, very rarely runs a poor race. And at$12 and$4 on the placeline, I think Verido is a horse that we can trust to run uh a very bold race here. Uh, and only fifth up in the campaign. So it could be a bit of a grand final for the Corstons Gallopper. Uh, they'll go back to the top of the page for the next session. That's number two, the instructor comes here first up off a bit of a let up here, 77 days. But I think it's trialled nicely. Last preparation comes out of some good races behind King Secret and um Willado and some really nice listed sort of group three races. This race gets in okay with the 59 kilos, uh, courtesy of the top late, which I'll talk about in a second. So should be able to jump, roll to the top, and I think you can give a good uh good uh sight for your money there, the instructor. So one that I would be including in McQuaddy's. In for third, tracking number 10, that's five star. And this horse is a genuine first up type, five starts for two wins and two minor placings to its name. Run scone before, and it ran really well well uh into the placings. Bit of sting out of the ground wouldn't hurt. Jordan Barrier 9, they should go a quick tempo, so expect him to hit the line very well. And then in for fourth, I've chucked in King of Sparta. Now, look, he's only had a short break of 560 days. So obviously something uh it's uh a little bit got a miss last preparation after that run behind Bella Nipatina all the way back in 24, if you don't mind. But I mean he's got to carry 61 kilos for a reason. His quality, he's got enough quality to win a race like this, just whether or not he's wound up first up after that sort of a break. So don't know if I'd be diving into the price, but I'll tell you what, if he runs well, you will not see nine dollars for the$19 for the rest of the campaign. So King of Sparta one, you've got to keep an eye out here, especially if you see a market move. But yeah, not a lot to uh contribute here in terms of confidence, maxi, but Verdo I thought was a nice chance at the each way price.
SPEAKER_03Bit of value there. What about you, Josh? How are you seeing the Ortensia stakes?
SPEAKER_02Well, I had my third runner of the weekend in this race, and I was going to be a bit worried, boys, if um Nathan hadn't picked it as one of his four runners. But fortunately he has my furry run of the Recon boys' number 10 at fire star. I really like this horse coming into this race. Fresh air first up, Andrew Atkins on for the Snowden camp here. I just really love the trolls coming into this race. If we can just get a bit of cover from gate nine,$10, I think looks a great each-way price. He beat Hillier in its last troll, and Hillia came out and ran really well first up last week in the last race there at Gosford. So after the troll form holds, I think we can get a big each-way run here from number 10 Firestar. So that goes on top from number two. The instructor will be jumping, will be leading there a long way. I just hope with the 59 kilos they can run them down here with the lowish weights, uh, six, five and a half kilo difference between the two of them. So hopefully that can tell for both of them late there. Furdu goes in there for third, going really well this prep. And then just forgive last start of Ballarat, drew the car park, had to go back in a race where spy wire front run it, and nothing was making any ground there on the day. And two nice tickover trials coming here to Scone. And they don't travel them unless they're going to run well. So I'm with you, Nathan. It's another one at each way price that I think can run really well here for do. And then in for fourth, I'll put in uh number nine, Bev's nine here. I thought it was uh the best of the horses coming from the back behind uh Sellersley there. And uh gate 14's a bit tricky, but like you said, if they can uh get across from gate fourteen and sit forward somewhere. This horse is going really well, has the strike rate to say it's a really good horse and five dollars fifty. Um bit short for me, but if you like it, I think you're getting a solid enough price. But for me, boys, I like five star each way, and I'm making my fairy runner of the weekend.
SPEAKER_03Now I'm I'm tipping value, boys. I'm going wide, but it's with a grain of salt. It's second emergency, so I might not get a run here, boys, but it's going around at 150s, and that's horse 18. Helsing Bell. Um, look, when in doubt, this scone carnival just back the local trainers, and it's the only local horse in the race. Uh, that's all I can give you. But uh, to be honest, um, I thought it was actually not too bad there. Last start behind Golden Strand. Um, look, meets it maybe a little bit worse off at the weights this time around. Um, hasn't got a jockey nommed. Um, but if it does get a run, I reckon it'll run a lot better than the 150s that are currently on offer. Um, so yeah, just back some of the local trainers there at Scone. They tend to go pretty well. Um in for second, how can you not have dollar magic in for second? I mean, this horse is the epitome of um running second. He's had what 34 race starts, he's got five wins at 21 minor placings to his name. He loves this track. Four starts, two wins at two minors uh as well. We saw him win this time last year. Uh not in this race, I think it was in the last race of the day uh at Aluskan Star. Um yeah, finds himself first up in this race and um certainly wouldn't just be reminisced to win a race like this. Um for third, I've gone with Golden Strand, uh, and then King of Sparta to round out the numbers. But boys, this was almost too hard. Put the queue on the rack. I'll I'll just take the$150 pop and call it a day. Um, just because it's locally trained. That's how tough a race it is. So good luck if you haven't a quaddy. Let's move on to the Dark Jewel boys. Uh, this is the feature race of the day. Surf and bird has lobbed up the favorite here for this Phillies and Mares race. Um look, should have won last start, let's be honest. Uh just got pipped there by Chiddiak. Um, has a chance to redeem itself, get a bit more black type to its name. Nathan, are you with Surf and Bird for redemption or potentially any of these at um close to double figures? Because there is plenty of value in this race if you want to steer around this favorite.
SPEAKER_04There is, and my value runner comes up in this race. I'm pretty keen. I actually identified it first up um alongside Surf and Bird. Comes out of the same race. Talking about number three, Love and War. I think there's a very, very good bet here. I thought was luckless first up behind Chiddiak. Chidiac got that bob on Surf and Bird like you alluded to, Maxie. But this all sat three wide, no cover the entire trip. I thought had every right to knock up uh after a bit of a lengthy spell, 121 days off the seam. But he just continued, uh she pardon me continued to kick and show and show and just within 1.5 lengths of those two. I think gets in here okay with the weight. Second up, good second up profile, five starts for three wins on the resume. And again, if there's any singing out of the ground, even better, drawn a little wide, doesn't bother me, just get some cover and launch down the middle of the track.$11,$3.50 a place. Will not miss the frame, boys. Very keen on love and war. Surf and bird, the main danger, definitely can win a race like this. I thought first up was very, very good there, or be it in defeat behind Chiddiak, I think, can turn the tables on a horse like that. Uh well, should be you know, winning a race like this with that horse not here. So if you like the top two out of that race, Surf and Bird obviously rocks up here in very, very good form. Uh might even chop out uh out of my stake on Love and War uh with this uh Philly by the Autumn Sun. She's very talented and could easily be winning this race. So my main danger in this race goes to that. Another one at a massive, massive price, boys.$51 if you don't mind. I think you can chuck it in your multiples, and that's number 15, count your blessings. Now, I know this horse doesn't run a cracking race out of turn, but I keep going back to that race second up last prep over 1200 metres at Randwick when it beat Dollar Magic, the horse you alluded to, Maxie, was absolutely enormous that day. And then went up to the Gold Coast and ran a butler behind Poster Girl, a little bit off the boil at the end of the campaign behind Weeping Woman. Then first up again in that Chiddiak race. I thought it was good through the line. I think she could improve.$51. Just watch her in the market. If she's a little any sort of a push for her, she's one I could even uh definitely uh suggest goes in your exotics because I think she's going better than the$51 suggests. And then in for fourth, I've tracked number five, Harlan Queen. Just a bit of a class edge with this girl by Brutal. I thought was good second up last campaign. Comes here first up after a bit of a long spell, but I thought the last trial was good uh heading into this first up. So she could run a race at each way odds as well. But I'm pretty keen, boys. Love and war. I love the first up effort, and I think we're getting a fair price to find out.
SPEAKER_03Alright, what about you, Josh? Dark Jewel Classic feature of the day. What do you like?
SPEAKER_02Surf and Bird fair favourite, boys, but I've got two here that I want to back at failure. The one that goes on top is your failure run, Nathan. Um I like Love and War as well. I thought it was the eye catcher of that race from the back. And uh second up, five starts free wins. My only negative is that we don't see them come over from WA and win straight away a lot of the time. But that looked a really good run, and at the double figures, I have to back it. And the other one I want to have a bet on, Max, you talked about home trackers. Number four, Melody again is going outstanding, boys, going into this race. Three outstanding runs. First up on Teller is at Newcastle. Then I thought was an outstanding run behind Lasur and the Cormore, and then uh just got essentially Pride Jenny their uh last start over the mile at Ramwick. Uh fresh in 35 days, comes back to its home track over this distance. Three starts for two in at the tracking distance, drawn a bit awkwardly, but I think there might be enough speed for this horse to fly down the outside. And Michaela Weir has been riding really well lately. So um they're the two I want to back the price. Love and war and melody again at around the$11. I'll put the favorite in for third, surf and bird. If they're not making too much ground from the back and this horse uh can control it on speed, it's gonna be hard to chase down. And then I'll put Snow and May in for fourth. I was with this horse last start, just got pipped by uh Captain Furii. Since then, been bought by Yulong, but gate 20 is my main negative. I don't think this horse can make up that much ground. Be interesting to see where Sack can get in from that gate, but another one at double figures that might be able to run a really big race. So bird fair favourite, but I'll be back in Love and War and Melody again.
SPEAKER_03Jeez, uh, all over Metally. Melody again. Um, but you're not knocking it for the barrier? Barrier 19, it's only draw one inside of Snowy May.
SPEAKER_02Oh, well, I may be a little uh annoyed that Snow May didn't get the Bob last start, so that's why it probably dropped in my numbers a couple yes, exactly.
SPEAKER_03Um I've gone with Surf and Bird on top. Um look, I think$3, fair price. Um I'm happy to gamble it against this field. Um yeah, I'm a little bit bitter. Um, but I'm hoping it can show some improvement um coming off last start there. Um look, just didn't get the bob there at Hawkesbury. Hawkesbury is a bit of a weird track as well. Um because they go past the crowd at about the 150 and then they don't have any more crowd noise for the last 150 metres or so. Um I just love the way it knuckled to the line. It looked like it was going to get beat the whole home straight. Um and it just that last 50 metres just found a little bit extra in the reserves. So if it can do that um in a race like this, certainly wouldn't be remiss um, you know, to write its name in the record book. In for second, but oh boys, the horse is teased and teased and teased. Horse number two here, Chickamajito, um, goes in the numbers there. Look, I thought it was fine last start there, behind Chiddiak. Um, but yeah, a couple starts ago over there in Ellersley, group two level. But um, yeah, I thought it was a pretty good run there. In behind Moxie on that occasion and ended up winning a Wyong uh uh what is it? I can't remember the it wasn't the Wyong Cup, um, but it was one of their feature races up there as well um for Phillies and Mayors. So look, it's back in the winner's circle, it's got a bit of confidence to it. Um so hopefully Sammy Clipperton can get it over the line. Um yeah, at$19. Can't believe I'm tipping it. I've Chuck Snow in May and then Melody again to round out my numbers uh from the two widest draws there. Um yeah, I should have won against Captain Puri. Um, but a lot you know it's Captain Puri and a benchmark hundred. I mean, can't believe it got the bob. Um but like you said, Medley again has been going absolutely outstanding, drops back from group one grade um as well. So yeah, I I I want to be careful of a lot of these local trainers, um, and you have to be there at Scone because they can bob up at a price in these races, but surf and bird on top for me. Um might have a few more best bets going around at Scone, but we'll give you those a little bit later because it's time to head up to Queensland Boys. It's a little bit wet up there um at Doomban. Doombin 10,000, that's the feature race of the day. Group one level over 1200 metres. Jimmy Starr, he's lobbed up as your favourite here against Grafter Burners, Napoleonic, Beadman as well, rounding out those in single figures. Nathan, how are you breaking down this Doomban 10,000? Because it looks a pretty good addition, and you go through the honor roll, some very, very good horses have won this race.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, there has been. There's been some very, very good horses win this race, and I think there's one at the top of the page here that boys, I'm just gonna be fair income. We're getting three dollars for a moral this weekend, and um, I just cannot believe the price we're getting. I'm gonna call it, boys, dead set, bona fide, never seen more of a bet in my life. Number one, Jimmy Starr. I I mean this horse should be Evens, fair income evens in this race. Um, but there are some nice horses here, Maxie. Don't get me wrong. Another Will returning, nice horse. Roth Fire's a nice horse on his day. Uh, Grafter Burners looks a nice tight beadman. Yeah, he was a great jockey. Horse is okay, but uh fair income, Jimmy Starr is just on another level compared to these. I think he's a cracking bet. Uh, as I stop bloviating. I've already spoken to the lawyers, the loan's been adjusted. Two big chips in on Jimmy Star. I'm just gonna keep talking uh rubbish here, boys. But I do think uh he's just a cracking bet in this race. Uh drawn barrier eight, middle draw. Ethan Brown comes back from Hong Kong to take the steer, which I do think's ideal. Should get that lovely run in transit. I thought was excellent behind Baywack in the all-age. Yes, you could have seen that as grand final day, but they get another crack here. He's too good a horse to go winless in a campaign. His three runs this prep have been phenomenal. Well, well, pardon me, a second and third run in the campaign were phenomenal. Yes, his first up run was average uh in the William Reed. But since then he's bounced back very, very impressively. Looks like gets the right run, a nice speed set for him, and that sting out of the ground, like you said, Maxie, could be on soft to heavy ground. And if it is, we only need a replication of that Russell Balding run last preparation, and he just wins. I just think he's a cracking bet in this race. Gets enough luck. I think$3,$3.50. You can shop around and find the money.$100, bang on the nose. Best bet anywhere in Australia on Saturday. Jimmy Starr, thank you very much. In for second, I've gone with number 12, Grafter Burners. This is the horse on the rise. I thought was excellent. First up there behind Tempted. Had a little setback, scratched at the barriers the start prior. So look, a little bit of a concern there. Only comes into the second half, uh, second up, pardon me, end of the campaign. But look here you get on. The legendary Zach Purton. So he doesn't come over for a holiday. This is going to be a very, very good chance to knock off the favourite. Sting out of the ground doesn't bother him either, so he'll be riding this, the son of Graf. And I've always had a big opinion of him, boys. You know that. So I will be a little bit disappointed if I get rolled by the great man and this horse. So uh, but it must be respected. It clearly goes in for second. Me uh for me, uh, does Grafter Burner's in for third. I've gone with uh third and fourth. I've gone with the two down the bottom of the page that I think get a run now, and that's Biedman and Napoleonic. Um, obviously a lot of talk about Napoleonic getting into this field he does now. So trying to shut up, shop, and see what he can actually do on the course. Uh, I thought was good last preparation, but I do think it's a little bit underpriced here. I do think there's a J Mac tax coming into play. Uh, but again, you can tie this horse similarly to Graftburners into Tempted, who, in my opinion, is the best sprinter in Australia. So if you quantify like that, it's very honest. Uh it's easy to see where. Why the price is so short once you factor in J Mac. And Biedman I thought was good on the Gold Coast last start. I do think this is a bridge too far in my opinion. But Jaws that one marvel where it could actually be ideal to just slipstream similarly to what we saw from uh Splashback a couple of weeks ago as well. So wouldn't shock me if Biedman runs a bold race. But boys, I am chips in, very keen. I can't blow the eight anymore. Jimmy Starr will be winning.
SPEAKER_03All right. Very, very bullish. What about you, Josh? Are you as bullish as uh Nathan is on Jimmy Starr or potentially going head to head uh against the moral of the weekend?
SPEAKER_02I'm not as bullish as Nathan uh with Jimmy Starr, but I do have it on top. It is the class runner. Kieran Maher wouldn't bring it up here if he didn't think it could win this race. And I think fourth up should be a hard fit now, loves the wet deck, gate eight, just needs luck in running and should be going really close. But 60 to win on Jimmy Starr because the other 40 is going on Grafter Burner. So I think this horse is ready to win a group one here, second up. And um Zack Purden coming over gives me even more confidence. The money's there for it. And like you mentioned, Nathan, first up third with a lack of fitness buying tempted, that's got to be good enough form line to win a Doomban 10,000. So they're the two I want to play. 60 to win Jimmy Starr, four to win Grafter Burners. Biedman makes my numbers in for third. I just think it loves a wet deck, and it's going to get conditions to suit this weekend. So if you like Biedman on the week backup off a good win where it ran slick time, getting on to track conditions that it prefers. I think its best win was as a two-year-old when it won on a heavy deck, destroying them by about eight lengths. So it does handle the weak grand really well. And then in for fourth, you're going to call me crazy, boys, but in for fourth, I've got number seven, Private Harry. I think this horse might be able to run a really big race here this weekend. I um I just think it needed to run first up. It loomed to win first up in the splashback race, and then it probably peaked on the run. We're about a furlong to go. If it comes on from that, and we get into the soft range where it's free for free. From gate through, Tommy Berry pushes forward, and I think Private Harry is the knockout horse of this race at the$19. I'm quite scared of it, boys. So I might have to even have something small on that just to save in the race. But at this stage, main bet Jimmy Starr and a saver on Grafter Burners.
SPEAKER_03Nah, uh mate, I can't have Private Harry in the numbers. Jeez, Josh, I've got to pull you up on that. Um, look, I wanted to tip against Jimmy Starr. I really did. And I've done it. I've gone with Grafter Burners on top. Um, look, do we think Jimmy's best distance is 1200 metres, seven starts, one win, mind you, a lot of miners, three miners to his name. Um so he finishes more often you know in the top three than he does outside. But uh just Jimmy Starr, I I don't know, he's a hard one to catch. All the hype. Like to uh that he won a race so far this campaign. I mean, his last two starts, he looked like you know, he he'd been going oh so well, but yeah, he got beat by Beywalk on the day there, last start. Well, Ethan Brown goes up for the ride, runs third and never is behind Car Ying, but geez, on his day, yes, he is strong enough to beat this field, and he does beat them very, very well at weights and measures. Um, but I just can't get around the run that Grafter Burners is gonna get into this race. Um, and I think Zach Purton realizes that as well. He'll just be able to jump, settle somewhere in the first half of the field, um, and then just kick at the top of the straight. Look, conditions are gonna have to play into it. Um if it's not a leader's day, um all of a sudden Grafter Burners could be in a bit of a sticky spot um as he's got horses that are following into his lap um as he's coming around a home turn. Um might have to swing a little bit wider and poke out into the breeze a little bit earlier than what Zach's probably hoping for. But if it plays pretty even, I think the wet deck is a big positive um for Grafter Burners and its chances as well. Look, I don't like packing horses off a setback in the campaign. Obviously, it was meant to go to the galaxy first up, things didn't go to plan. Um, you know, so second target instead go towards the Arrowfield. And I thought it was a fair run in there behind Tempted. Um but yeah, I asked what price would be Tempted be in this race, and I'd say Tempted would be favourite in this race. Um so it's just I've got them equally sort of weighted. Jimmy Starr, Grafter Burners, Jimmy Starr's the proven horse, Grafter Burners is the one on the up. But I've just been swung by the Zach Purton and price factor. Um so I see entirely where you're coming from because I literally think it's between those two horses. And if you haven't a quaddy, just put those two in and then look, just sort of try and get a result out of some of the other legs, um, which I think you can go wider in. I don't see any of these other runners um potentially giving these two a bit of a leak. If I had to tip you into any, don't mind Warney as well, uh, the stable make there to Jimmy Starr as well. Look, I thought it was a great run in there. I had splashback on that occasion. Splashback has huge upside. Everyone's talking about it, but Warney was kind of the forgotten run in there behind. And oh geez, what do we do with Skybird on his day? He he's exceptional. Um, but geez, how many times do we see him on his day? He he was an absolute bull line for him there last start there in the sangster. So I I just don't know what to do um with this mare. She's just so hard to find. But on a day, hey, she's up to a race like this. But Jimmy Stark, Rafter Burners, just give me the bigger price, Nathan. So um I don't want to put a six back on the line because I am nervous. But um yeah, I I understand why he's so bullish. He just ticks all the boxes. All right, let's move on to the rough habit play. Pretty much win, and you're a very good chance heading towards a Queensland Derby. It's one of the main lead ups. 2,000 meters here, boys. Um, accidental bid. Didn't get the run in the SA derby. Instead, lobs up in this race as one-time favourite there for the SA derby till it didn't get a run. Um now it finds itself favourite here for the Mark Camp. Johnny Allen, he jumps back on board as well off a very, very dominant win there. Last start at Packenham, big step up in grade, but obviously they reckon this horse can stay and stay very, very well. So, Nathan, with this very short price favorite on top, an accidental bid with plenty of upside, or maybe a few of these other runners that have a bit more black type to their name already and a bit more proof and bit more form already under their belt. How'd you break down this race?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, I initially I was I was like that, Maxi. I thought, okay, where's the class? But there just isn't a lot of it. You know, it's a very, very compact, very similar style field that I don't think you can differentiate too much between these this lot. And I just thought I kept looking at them thinking, okay, what are the two things I want? I want a horse that can stay and a horse that loves the mud. And accidental bid does both of those things. I thought the win at Packenham was brilliant. That was over obviously over 2,000 metres. I know it was a benchmark 62, so you're thinking, geez, I don't know about that, but it absolutely belted them, did it hard held. Reminded me of Russian Camelot when that horse came over and and and did something similar to a pretty weak field, and then ended up ending running a hole in a in a cock's plate. So that horse was very, very talented. I'm not saying accidental bids on that level, but brings a pretty similar profile, was lightly raced in the UK, comes over, goes bang bang, first two runs at packing them, albeit uh in a maiden and a benchmark race. But it's been impressive in both wins. Steps out, uh sorry, stays out at the 2,000 metres. Maybe a little bit of a of a um question mark in terms of this wasn't the race they wanted to go to, but hey, it's not a bad second one to uh end up in, considering you end up going to the Queensland Derby anyway. So I think they can win this on the way. A little bit of an awkward draw, but again, the son of Phoenix of Spain can definitely stay uh a little bit wide and still get the job done in a race like this at the set weights. So accidental bid is the one on top for me, and I'm pretty keen to have a bet. The other one that I'm gonna back boys is another one. I'm identifying horses at silly prices outside of a couple uh of favourites I like. But I'm actually going towards the top of the page here. Number five, Southern Prince. I think$51 you can find if you go do some shopping. I think it looks a massive, massive price of some of these horses. Like I said, I think they're all pretty close to each other. I thought the first up run was good over 1,500 metres behind, changed my address. Then beaten second up uh over the mile, but I thought it was a nice improved effort. Now, third up, 2,000 metres. Last time I got to this trip was actually really impressive over 2,000 metres uh in a champions uh spring championship behind Attica, and I thought it was a really, really nice effort. Now a little bit of stinging out of the ground, two runs on soft ground for two placings. One of them was this preparation, but I do think this is a horse that can definitely improve stepping out to 2,000 metres third up in the campaign. Draws a lovely soft gate here with DuPlessis in the saddle, and I think can get that lovely run. And look a real danger to this favorite at 41s and nine bucks on the placeline. So a little each-way spray here for uh Southern Prince. In for third, I've got my number one, that's one step closer, comes out of that uh derby in Sydney. I thought was a good run on that occasion behind green spaces, but now back in trip. Just look a bit of an awkward preparation, but does bring the class form you to thought uh through those form lines. So definitely it must be respected there. And then in for fourth, I've chucked in number 15. That's Sovereato, one of the girls in this race. I thought was good. Uh two starts back uh in the viny behind profoundly. Oh sorry, in the uh uh Adrian Knox behind profoundly, and then I thought was good again in the Oaks behind Oh wins, just wasn't quite to that level, but this is weaker, and again, that stinging out of the ground won't be a danger there from barrier 14 with Kyle Wilson Taylor in the saddle. But yeah, look, I just kept uh coming back to accidental bid maxi. I think that's a fair favourite. And the one at an each way price I can spec is Southern Prince. I think 51s is ridiculous.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, it just ticks plenty of uh plenty of boxes there, Josh. How do you break down the race you with accidental bid or potentially one of these more uh proven horses?
SPEAKER_02No, accidental bid's the horse on the rise, and I think it's a fair favourite. I'll be saving on him, but on top, I'm gonna go with the girls here because they've been going just as good as the boys this prep, especially on the stand trips. And um with the Kiwi here, number 16, solid gold. I re I think its form has been pretty solid there over in New Zealand this prep. And I really like the Ryan James and Roger Worldwood camp when they travel their horses over here. And its last two wins for me have been quite impressive. Got went from a maiden to a group three and held on last start. Now they bring it over here for the rough habit. At around the$9.50, I'll give uh the Kiwi here a go each way from the favourite accidental beer that drawn right next to each other there. Be interesting to see if John Allen can get in if he goes forward, because last two starts he's been first half a running. So if he can get a get a spot from forward and midfield from that gate with cover, gonna be hard to beat. In for third, I'll put in the one you mentioned there, Salvarado. I think this is the better Walla runner uh rather than Providence. I think Salvarado's the better one. And again, these girls, I think, are going really, really well. And then in for fourth, I'll put in the top weight one step closer. Just uh wanted to have more than one win going into this race, but it's improved every run, this prep. And the run in the Guinea's by an Autumn Boyle was actually quite solid. So I can run close to that. It's right in this race. Mark Sara jumping on for Sakuloid, but I'll go with the Kiwi horse here, boys, solid gold, but I'll definitely be saving with the favorite ear accidental bid.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, accidental bid just ticks every box for me. I wanted to try and get a beat, it goes on top. I I just couldn't find anything that really sort of stood out as much as you try and boost some of the other horses with their previous starts. Um, yeah, it's just got all the upside um as well. Look, it's got the breeding, it's got the caliber, it's got the stamina, it's got the on um you know, potentially the wet it's got the wet box ticked. Um so yeah, it it the only thing you have to worry about is the barrier. So look, it's obviously wanting to head towards Queensland Derby. You're gonna butter up at$3.50. But if it comes out, wins this race and wins it in style, geez, it's gonna be odds on, it's gonna be Kovalika sort of areas um heading towards that uh that Queensland derby. So look, what goes on top for me ticks every box. So accidental bid on top in for second. Ended up going for O'Sheamus as well. I thought it's run um but their last start was just as good um or just as fair as what Providence um did, and you're getting more than yeah, three times the price. So look, here's a bit of a noddy, yes, ten starts, one win, and another minor to his name. Um hasn't really shown on any of the wet decks, but I thought it was not a bad start there as well. Um, and get Zachy Lor um Zach Purton on board, so tick slots or boxes that regard. Providence goes in there as well, hit another one of these nonnies as well. But um, yeah, brings that sort of Matthias form. He's a bit of a get back horse, but um, yeah, but wouldn't doesn't find himself out of um place in a race like this. And then I agree, I don't mind the Philly as well in this race, um, bringing that New Zealand form, just brings a different form line here um in solid gold, um, in what I thought was a pretty tough race outside of accidental bids. So yeah, it goes on top for me. Um$3.50 in the derby two weeks after this run. Nathan, could you butter up at that price? Um the only other one in single figures is Providence at$5 and Monopolistic as well, also at$5.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, look, uh not a what horse I'd want to be chiming into, especially this weekend. We're getting a similar price, uh, you know. And so with that in mind, I think you can bat bet up this weekend. And if you thought it was that impressive, yes, you might have to stomach sort of$2,$2.50, somewhere in that range, but you'd be happy to load up again if he does the job this weekend. So I wouldn't be buttering up for that$3.50. Um, but in saying that, you you could even do a double because yeah, he looks a he looks a very impressive type. And if he gets the job done on Saturday, yeah, you'll stomach short price.
SPEAKER_03What about you, Josh? Would you butter up at that$3.50 in the all-in market?
SPEAKER_02Possibly. Um interesting to see what happens this week. And if it just wins, uh hindsight says yes, but if it's a lamp lighter flashing home and like just misses run second or third, does do you get a better price or does it still come in after running a really big race? That would be the interesting thing to see whether uh they there's a price discrepancy on how well the run is compared to if it actually wins this weekend. So I'd probably uh be holding my uh holding for uh after this race because$3.50, but we might look like idiots might come out and went by five lengths and be a dollar eighty next start on the derby.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I mean it started what it was two dollars fifty there in the SA derby um at one point at its shortest quote, and and it would have won it too. And it would have won it too, didn't win the field. Geez, so yeah, you feel bad for connections there. Um so I guess there's a little bit of trepidation that like, you know, if it doesn't come out and win a race like this, get some black type to its name, then all of a sudden just like, is it on the outside looking in once again? So yeah, it could be a bit of danger there at the$3.50s, but um, yeah, bet with caution, that's for sure. But interesting race, um, a lot to unfold over the next coming weeks, and the Queensland Carnival. But geez, we already got a little early preview as to what the best bets were going in towards this weekend. Um Nathan, before I come to you for your best bets, I'm gonna be greedy, but I I'm gonna jump the gun here, boys. Um there was a reason why we didn't cover the last race at Scone, boys, the Luskin Star um listed race. It's because the linebacker just wins. Just wins. You're getting three dollars about this horse. Honestly, it should be starting with a one in front of its name. It should be about a dollar seventy, to be honest. Um, against this sort of field. The only worry is that yes, it is a pretty big field, and yes, we could be getting some soft conditions to um by this time of the day, this time of the carnival as well. But when you look at the horses, it's running in behind. She's an alibi, autumn glow, jolly star. The form line doesn't get much better, it just jumps off the page, draws an icy there from barrier eight, and its main rival is Captain Furi, please. I mean, linebacker just wins. I mean, I I got nothing else to say, Nathan. Um, let's hear your best bets for this weekend. You already gave us a spruk into one of them um there up in Queensland. Any others that you're gonna be diving into this weekend?
SPEAKER_04Not in Queensland, Maxie, but you have stolen my thunder a little bit, I'm not gonna lie. But I'm gonna cover it because you're spot on. Uh, we'll go to Scone for the best bets this weekend. I'll start with the value runner, as I alluded to, love and war. I think it's a cracking each way bet uh in race number nine, I think can be getting the job done there. Josh gave it a little bit of push as well, so a bit of confidence there. I know you like Surf and Bird, Maxie, so maybe they're the two. We back two in that race and hopefully get a result uh there. But I'll go earlier in the program for the first of the other two that I like, and that's race number five. There's a horse here uh called Man of Worth, that's number four in the form guide. I thought the first up win was excellent. I've always had a big opinion of this Sunner Sea of the Stars. I thought it had a good end to the last campaign. Ticked off two really impressive wins, one a maiden over the mole, and then another benchmark 72 over the mole as well, beating Ivan's hero on that occasion. First up, absolutely destroyed them over an unsuitable trip, too, 1250 uh at Canterbury, but jumped, went forward, got the win, and now he comes here second up, stretches out to 1700 metres, but that's not a problem. That's where this horse does its best work. Second up into the campaign. A little bit of an awkward draw from Barry 10, but he expects Sienna Drimer just to dip back in from that wide draw, sit back towards the rear of the field, and then power over the top over the 1700 metres. Man of worth, a very good bet there in race number five. We'll go to race number 10, Maxi, just spot on. Linebacker, fair income. They're betting$3, and I don't know why. I know that he's had a little bit of a setback and he hasn't been winning. But like you said, look at the competition he's been going up against. Three wait for age group one runs, first, second, third, up. Jolly star, autumn glow. She's an alibi, then wins a trial, ends up going to uh to Scone to try and pick up a win. Fair Dincom. If he doesn't win this, he is in the never-again pile. And I don't even care about this year. Zach can have him five wide node cover, he won't be winning. Fair Dincom, uh, linebacker, one of the best of the day. And I'll give you two more boys. I'm gonna go over to Flemington for my best there. Interesting card there, actually. I know the Andrew Ramsden, as we alluded to, is a nice race, but earlier in the card, you've got to go to race number two. This is the Trevor Clark handicap over 2,000 metres. And we've been talking about Josh was talking about the girls being very, very good. And there's a horse that comes out of the Oaks, and that's number three, Classic Gem. I think it's a cracking bet here. Was good behind O Hope wins. Little trial between runs.$4.40. Runs into different gravy, who I think's a nice horse uh in this race. But I do think classic gem's got to be considered the class. Gets that lovely barrier there from gate six, Daniel Stackhouse in the saddle. I know she's still a maiden, but she's one of the better maidens going around in the country, and I think she can win on Saturday. So classic gem in race number two. That's number three, classic gem in race number two. And the other one, I'm still in Josh's Thunder here. We're gonna go to race number six. There's a horse here first up for in Australia, now trained by Kieran Ma. A horse that brings some really good European form, in particular Irish form. This horse is number one, Zuran. Again, around$5 here for this son of Knight of Thunder. I think comes out of some really good races at the end of last preparation. Yes, was beaten well by Detta Kra, but that's a very, very good horse. Rand it's a horse called Amarlock. That was at Royal Ascot. And it's win at the current over 2,000 metres was very good at group three level as well. Comes here first up, has to carry the weight in this benchmark 100, but he's got the class to do it. Wonder Boy's your favourite there, Jordan Barrier 1. If Zaran's up to the mark here first up on what on set weights and penalties, he should be absolutely baffing this lot. And if he's anything like he is in the UK or slash Ireland, he should be winning a race like this, but I'm sure Josh can probably tell us a bit more about him because I know he's had a little futures bet in some of the cups moving forward into the spring. So I'll leave it there with the best bet, boys. But I agree with you, Maxie. Linebacker, outside of obviously Jimmy Starr, best bet in Australia.
SPEAKER_03All right. What about you, Josh? Best bets this weekend. Where are they lobbying?
SPEAKER_02Well, I'll make it free for free, boys. Linebacker was one of my best bets of the day as well. So if linebacker wins, we're having a fill up this weekend, boys. So linebacker, the best bet for me. And the last, like you've mentioned, just has all the class, group one form coming back here to scone. D-Day, though, it should be winning this race, and hopefully at the$3 we get uh we get a big result there. But um, the rest of the best bets, as I mentioned in race number eight, fire star, I think is the best value. One of my other best bets, boys, you've already mentioned this one too, Nathan. I'm with you with classic Gemin race number two there, the Trevor Clark over the 2,000 metres. I really like it there at around the$4.20. Divid Gravy. There's also an interesting one, number 11, catch the moon. That's a bit of a danger at a big price. But from the soft gate, this horse has got a bit of class, and I think should be winning this weekend. And now for my best bet overseas, boys, we're going to York on Friday night. And you were mentioning Saran, Nathan. Tomorrow night, York race number five, the Yorkshire Cup over the 2787 metres. Number two, Amarlock. Saran's form line, boys. And I think this horse is ready to go here. Ross Aryan jumps on. For Ray Beckett. And its last two starts, it ran second in the Irish St. Ledger behind our boy in the Melbourne Cup. And then last start ran fourth in the Breeders' Cup turf. So I think the format's are good enough here, boys. First up, over a staying trip. I believe Rebels Romance ran this race last year. And I think Amarlock can do it this year at around to do uh around the$2.50, boys. So I think that's a cracking price this weekend, boys. So Amalok on the Friday night, and then classic gem uh and our boy linebacker in the last at Scone for the best bets with the best furry runner being Fire Star.
SPEAKER_03Alright. Um my best bets already heard linebacker. Um another one that I want to give you value in race number six at Scone is horse number five, uh Derover. Ash Morgan rides for Cam Crockett and their team. Um look 13 starts, seven wins to its name. Um yeah, just draws nicely there in barrier six, settles midfield on speed as well, just ticks plenty of boxes, and it's another one of those um runners that I want to be around the local trainers. Um so yeah, hence why I've ended up lobbing with it. Um geez. Um but anything else that you're really keen to sink your teeth into? I I just wanted to look into this York Carnival and Carter, you know, it's a great lead up heading towards uh the Epsom Carnival as they start to heat up with their flat season as well. But um, Aiden O'Brien 8,000 guineas uh with true love. I mean, you know, he's absolutely airborne. Is anything going to beat Aiden O'Brien with any of his uh two and three-year-olds at the moment because they're absolutely airborne, Josh, um heading towards some of these futures markets, maybe heading towards an Epsom or even a Royal Ascot?
SPEAKER_02Oh, the he's got a few uh few good ones there. Ben uh Benefito Cellini is the horse, obviously, marked for the uh Epson Derby boys. I think this horse is going really, really well. So um that's the horse I'd be following. But he's got a couple of good ones. Constechucian River uh might be going there, might also be going to France. And uh Pierre Bernard is obviously his derby runner as well. So he's got a few good runners, but you know you can trust Ryan Moranano Bryan. Their free roads are always going outstanding. The exact opposite, boys, to Charlie Appleby at the moment. His form for Godolphin there is uh uh bit wayward um uh at the moment. You'll have to find some form heading uh towards Royal Ascott there in June. But yeah if you're landing to me in uh lean to me for a best bet this weekend, boys, at um overseas this weekend at Newbury on Saturday night, Kalpana resumes over the mile and a half at Newbury. So that looks a really good bet. If you can get around that$2 mark, I think that's a cracking price. So that's probably one I'd lead you into. But we've also got the Lock Inge this weekend, uh Group 1 over the mile at Newbury. So uh very uh interesting races, and um you'll be listening to this on Friday, but Thursday night is uh the Dante, which is a good lead up for the Derby. And Rahmoyen O'Brien have a good one tonight called Christmas Day, which I think should be winning by Camelot. So a good staying breed, and um uh it's one of its last three starts, resumed winning there at Leopardstown. So I think can go on with the job here and win the Dante. And it'll be interesting to see if Christmas Day also goes to the Derby. But the spot for choice to call more camp, and uh they'll have the hot pot favourite this year, that's for sure.
SPEAKER_03See what I did there, Nathan. I knew Josh had a little bit more, just had to scratch the surface just a little bit, you know, get a few more tips abroad because they go oh so well when we uh dive into a few of those. Josh, thanks for joining us as always, mate. Nathan, you as well. Good to speak to you again, brother.
SPEAKER_04Always is, Maxi. Keen this weekend. Obviously, we've been very bullish, but I did forget the main term, boys. Gamble responsibly, gamble responsibly.
SPEAKER_03Yes, gamble responsibly. Josh, thanks as always, mate. Happy hunting this weekend.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you two, boys, yeah. Uh gamble responsibly, although there are two M-word horses going around this weekend. So um, but if uh if linebacker wins, boys, it's gonna be a great weekend. So let's hope for everyone's sake it can get the job done.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, that's it. That's it. Um, yeah, it's not quite the off season just yet, as the Queensland Carnival starts to heat up over the winter. Thanks so much for tuning in as always. Good luck on the punt. We're right to run. Red light now. Ready to run.
SPEAKER_00They're all set and they're off and racing.
SPEAKER_01The gates crash back in Wagga Wagga.