The Sideline Heat
The Sideline Heat
20 Minutes to Post Ep 221 (Winx Stakes)
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Oh boy, the team are back at it again, but this time, it's personal... sort of. Max, Nathan and Josh breakdown all the action at Randwick for Winx Stakes Day, and spoiler alert, the lads are sticking the boot in one. Will they regret it? Time will tell, sit back, have a laugh, and as always, Good Luck on the Punt.
Follow us on Twitter/X @thesidelineheat and on Facebook for all the late mail, tips, news and opinions.
We're right to run. Red light now. Ready to run.
SPEAKER_02They're all set and they're off and racing.
SPEAKER_00The gate crash back in Walker Walker.
SPEAKER_01Hello and welcome to another special edition of the 20 Minutes to Post podcast. My name is Max. Nate and Josh joining me as always because we've got group one racing this weekend. The Wink Stakes and boys. If you told me this time last week, we were going to be getting this mouthwatering competition. These two superstars of the turf in She's an Alibi up against Autumn Glow. Oh, I wouldn't have believed you. But now it's happening. Both of them are going to be arriving in Sydney, tackling Ramwick over the 1400 metres. And Nathan, I cannot wait for this weekend. How are you doing?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, doing fantastic, Maxie. It's good to be back. Obviously, come back. A little let up, but now we get the match race. I mean, no one, like you said, oh geez, we were talking about the last season during the winter. Oh, when are these two horses going to meet? They're going to be separate, the whole prep. When are we going to see them in the spring? First up in the wink stakes. Are they going to the Memzi? Surely they're going to the Memzi. No, we're going to the Wing Stakes. I love it. Moody and Coleman say, Nana, we're going to give you our best uh Team Waller. And Team Wallace said, Well, we'll just have half the field. So it's uh it's one of those races, yet again, the you know, the wink stakes, the waller stakes, whatever you want to call it. It's an awesome clash. There are some really great horses in this race. You know, it's not limited to the two uh at the top of the market. Obviously, they're the headline act, and if one of them comes out and blows the other away, off those two pair out, it's just so intriguing, Josh, as I'll bring you in. Um, it's so good to have the spring racing back, the spring horses as we uh sort of get into the Melbourne Cup Carnival and also obviously the Golden Eagle Carnival, it's all happening.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, boys, great to be back with the start of the spring carnival coming. Group one action, like you mentioned. She's an alibi versus Autumn Globe. But like you said, there's a couple of nice ones. Baywok back after winning the all-age, Lady Shenandoah, Green Gots. I mean, it's a very good field, a couple of Cox Plate contenders as well in the field going forward. So a lot of good runners in this race. So it'll be interesting to see what our strategies are for that. But a very good undercard, too, with a lot of good horses resuming. So can't wait to get into it.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and no doubt going to be tipping a stack of winners down south as well. Sandown. They got a uh pretty half-decent card going on down there, too, um, as well as racing up in Queensland and South Australia. But all the action and all the eyes are going to be looking towards Ramwick at uh 4.30 in the afternoon on Saturday. Cannot wait for that. But before we touch on that, let's recap a little bit of the racing. Wasn't too much happening in the last couple weeks. Um, of course, we had the PP Lawrence uh down south, very, very good win there by Cosmic, uh Crusader, uh Willie Pike as well coming over too, um getting the job done there. Um geez, this horse is on the up and up. Um and meanwhile, up here in Sydney, um had a bit of racing, of course, had the rosebud, uh, a lot of question marks about how good was the ride on the blue door, but uh all honesty win uh the winner in that. But we've got to talk about last night, and I'll come to you, Josh. Judmont Stakes. It looked to be the almost the same equivalent where it's like this could be the race of the spring. This is to what we get in the wink stakes. Like this was almost looking like the race of the entire carnival. Constitution River up against Ombudsman in the Judmont Stakes over there, over the 2,000 metres. And oh, it was a boilover. Colin Keane and Bolding uh win with Item, and it was the Judmont team that take out the win there, Josh.
SPEAKER_00Crazy weird race that one was. I mean, Item, Colin Keene, uh Andrew Bourne, like you said, flew down the outside to just nab our McCam on the line with Constitution River third on Budsman fourth. Very weird race. Where to start with? Devil's advocate advocate, the stablemate for Godolphin not setting the hectic pace like they did in the Prince of Wales stakes was quite shocking to a lot of people. And then um they didn't really go that hard in front. The Cormore horse elsewhere lead action ended up sitting free wide the trip and holding old Budsman on the inside there. Constitutional River had a lovely run there in second. I thought they'd every chance to win, but didn't really want to settle in the run for most of the race. And then Buick uh decided to make an early move, followed the best source into the race, Constitution River, and just on the inside, they just um peed it out late, and it was Al McCam and Item on the outside, and item the three-year-old, the Dante winner, had a flop in the Epson Derby on a heavy 12 track, so I can forgive that run. But now undefeated at York at the track and distance comes and wins the Judmont. And you've got to say, the combination, the Judmont combination with Colin Keane so far has been outstanding this year. They've had Blue Bolt beat precise in a couple of these mole group ones. Calpana won the big one there over at Ascot last month, and now Ihtum. Five starts, four wins, a sire out of Frankel. I mean, it could be a fairly good horse. It's hard to rate just how below um the other two really big horses were in the market with Constitution and River and Ombudsman. We'll see if I can back it up against them maybe at Leopard's Town or even later on in France, possibly. But um, as I bring you in, Nathan, yeah, just uh very interesting race and yeah, very big ball over over there in the one of the best weight for age races in Europe.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it was one of those weird ones, Josh. I don't know about you. I just want to get your thoughts on on a little bit more about the sort of the two main uh rivals in the race. Obviously, Constitution River. For me, I think it's clear-cut to Mile. I don't think it's a discussion anymore. That was 2,000 metres, didn't run the trip, in my opinion. I thought got every single chance up on speed. I'd be heading back to the mile. Um, in America, Josh, you know, the a lot of Aid and O'Brien horses, he likes to send them over there, uh, breeders' cups and things like that. So I think back to the mile for me when it comes to Constitution River. Umbudsman, I mean, people, I don't know, man. I thought it was a a pretty average rider, get me wrong, but even um interesting that tactically, I think it was John Goslin post-race was saying he didn't send Devil Ad Devil's Advocate forward to be a pacemaker like that because he thought action was going to just do all the donkey work uh for Constitution River, which just never unfolded. So really interesting how those tactics worked. Um Budsman, do you think now is that a horse looking for 2400 metres? Is that or or is it just the setup needs to be better? Like, because I thought, yes, disappointing, but I thought also maybe got its chance. So an interesting one for those two. And then item, just on that horse alone. I mean, surely now an arc de triomphe looks to go for him.
SPEAKER_00Possibly, it depends whether they want to stick it 2000 for item. They tried to step up in the derby. Now, obviously, that track was way too wet for it, but we'll see. I mean, Judmont would like to probably win another arc, but I'll start with Constitution River. Yeah, I've heard that um they're saying now that it might be a now and out mile, but it did win the French Derby and the Coral Eclipse, and I thought the Coral Eclipse win was quite good going into that race. I do think it runs 2,000 minutes. I just don't think it's settled, but it's really up to them because they've got so many middle distance horses, Cormore. It's not funny. So whether they want to bring a horse back to the mile, because their best mile of last year was probably the line in winter, and it didn't really live up to expectations. So a breeders' cup mile does look an option for that horse. And Ombudsman, yeah, they're they're half also blaming the track. It did rain on the day, and they're saying that Ombudsman's just uh five links worse horse with given the ground. It's just a firm deck horse. And I've they've uh what I've heard from Gosen that they're weigh weighing up the breather's cup turf or the Japan Cup. But this is definitely the last year of Obudsman racing, they're gonna put it to start at the end of this year. So I think they'll be looking at either America or Japan as its last race, Max.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Just quickly, I I just want to talk about the track in terms of the day and how it sort of played. Do you think the inside was sort of inferior sort of ground? Because you know, the winners obviously came down the middle of the track, right down the crown. Um but they just sort of seem to peak Ombudsman and um Constitution River, just sort of around the 200 meter mark or so. Um I'm not sure about the earlier races on the card, but could that be tactically a bit of a disadvantage like that they came down that inside part of the track? Um, you know, because the winners, you know, the first and second across the line, um, Al-Makam and uh Iden came home with a wet sale, and they just looked like they were going two to their one, especially the last set of furlum or so.
SPEAKER_00I agree. I think free four uh three, four, five, six off the fence was definitely the guy. If you look at the replays of say Hafner, middle of the track, was a fairly dominant win. Uh Maltese Cross got the upper hand of uh Pierre Bernard in the in uh in the boys' race. Yeah, yeah, the grandfather, yeah. And um that was Pierre Bernard was on the rail and was in the inferior ground four Maltes Cross. Great ride by Tom Marquon, got about three, four off the rail and was too strong late. And then like you said, Al McCam. And um to be fair though, Colin Keane didn't want to go that wide. He was looking for gaps on the inside. He was sort of forced to go down the middle of the track there late. But um, if you look at the time of the race, it was probably on the slow side of that track and trip compared to um, let's say, uh City of Troy, who won the break track for it. So I do think um the rain maybe did play a part, and those inside inside was off. Maybe not as much as we think, but in hindsight, maybe yeah, those inside free rails off the rail were probably off. It'll be interesting to see what they do tonight in the Yorkshire Oaks, because um I think they'll probably be getting off the fence now tonight and going on later on in the week. Because I think they're expecting five milli rain again tonight as well. So off the rails, probably uh the logical situation later on in this festival.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, question without notice. Uh, have you had a look at the e ball and uh the card that sort of lined up uh for uh the race that's on uh on Saturday night, Josh?
SPEAKER_00I've looked at the field quickly, yes. Um opportunity looks a very good chance there. Uh James Doyle's on it, a very good host. So J Mac won on it in um during the Royal Ascot meeting. That looks to be one of the favourites as well. Obviously, there's a couple of Willie Mullens horses in there, a couple of Joseph O'Brien runners in there. Very, very wide open race. I think it's about seven, eight bucks the field. So uh it does look about 22 horses, so it's quite a big field. I've got um spoilers if you stay to the end of the pod, I've got a value runner on that card on that meeting on Saturday night, so uh stick around for that one. Maybe not an e-ball in a a race earlier on the night, so stick around for that.
SPEAKER_01And also one last question Asphora, can she come out and win the Numthhorpe as well? Uh, of course, um won at this track as well, uh, won this race. Was it last year or year before? Uh won the Nunthorp last year, I believe. Yeah. Yeah. So can Asphora go back to back on uh that'll be on uh Friday night. Friday night, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00It definitely can, yeah. I thought that run at Goodwood was enormous on speed and um probably on the wrong part of the track, and a lot of the runners in behind it were way behind it. It did a lot on speed. The favorite is actually an American horse, but if the rain comes, you might want to be against the American on the on a track where a bit of given it. The horse called Baccio is now the favorite. Juan Hernandez for Wesley Ward. So as far, I think around $657, and if it brings its best form, I don't see why it can't run really well. It's a very uh very big handicap. I think the top weight's 64 kilos. I think the bottom weight's like 51. I think there's uh one two-year-old in the race at 51 kilos, so it's a very open race. But no, I think Esfora can go back to back. I think it found its best form last start, and uh a thousand metres is its perfect trip, and uh one for one at York as well, so I think it can do it.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, geez, I thought I was reading it wrong at first, uh, the weights uh for that race. Uh yeah, 64 kilo for pretty much the bulk of the field. Esfora has to lug uh 62 and a half, um, but then yeah, you go down to horse 17, 61 and a half as a three-year-old Philly, and then yeah, there's one two-year-old Philly in the race with 51.5 kilo, uh, 10 kilo weight swing to its closest rival. Um, yeah, hell of a weight swing. Um there in the Nunthorpe. But boys, we're gonna be finding some winners going towards this weekend. So let's dive in. Let's try and find a couple, and we'll start with some of the feature racing up in Royal Ramwick. Race five, it's the Premier's Cup, 2,000 metres, and we've got a nice favorite here in Bonnie Face. Hasn't won this preparation, but deep enough into the prep, where could uh win a race like this, has been starting favourite its last couple races as well. Um, alongside So You Are the Budgie Smuggler and Matusalum. Nathan will come to you first. What do you like here in the Premier's Cup?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, tricky little race to kick us off, Maxi. It's one of those races where you look at the fave, and you know, initially I'd looked at the race wanting to take him on. Just a horse that looks like it's sort of been peaking on the run, been getting there. Tazima ran to the backside of that horse on back-to-back occasions, and then was really well backed uh last start when beaten um uh by Ilias, who were uh well tipped up by Umaxi at a big, big price. Just wanted to give you a bit of a pattern on the back there. Uh, but fifth up into the campaign here, and have a look at that replay. Bonnieface, very, very unlucky. I'm gonna give it one more chance here. I know Tittle 70 is probably on the short side, but I do like the market move here. It's been very well backed early doors. And I think the the key with this runner was sort of as the as the as the we get close to the weekend, I think the firming going uh should be very beneficial. It's been well backed, as I said last start. Gets two kilos from that run, but I think here stepping up to 2,000 metres, ready to peak. Should get a nice run there with Tommy Berry in the saddle. I'm happy to stick with Bonnie Face. Um, not a big play, but I am going to be having a bet on Bonnie Face, I think is the way to be playing this race in what looks a pretty open race, despite just the nine horses going around him for second gone with the budgie smuggler. Like you said, Max, he went up to uh Brisbane and got the job job done in the Calowandra Cup. I don't know that the Budgie Smuggler is um, you know, uh a sort of a group level like uh group one type, uh sort of Melbourne Cups type moving forward. Um has I believe uh half yours won the race uh the year prior, so I don't think it's on that level. But uh I think it's a nice type. Um gets in here well. I thought it was a good uh win beating, so you are. So you are came out and was a little bit unlucky in a grafting cup, so easy to tie the form into a few runners in this race. I think it's the clear danger, and around that $4.60. I understand if you've uh backed the last two starts where it's saluted. I don't see why you'd want to get off at this point in the preparation. Interesting one I've chucked in for third, and a horse that I might even have a little saver bet uh along with Bonnie Face on Saturday, is number 10 elliptical. Comes with that same race behind Ilias. I think up to 2,000 metres again, read a peak this campaign, has become a bit of a nonny tag, 27 starts for two wins, but gets in here with 53 kilos, looks really, really well placed. And with Andrew Atkins from that one pole, you'd think should get the economical run in transit. Uh, and then in for fourth, the horse that you know never really runs, you know, well, you can run a bad race, but he's he's he's well placed here despite top weight. That's number one, changing the guard. Uh first up last preparation was good, when beaten by Piggyback, and then eventually obviously went on to win the uh the Sydney Cup. So we know if this turns into a genuine staying contest, which he might want to make it up on speed, that uh changing the guard can put in some big, big strides late. And around $16, you could do a lot worse. But um I'm happy to be with Bonnie Face. I'll have a main bet there, could save on elliptical, but I'll wait for the day and see what the market looks like.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, elliptical, interesting runner, because going off last start, you definitely want to be backing it, especially there at the price. But when you go back and see its last winners all the way back in 2023 as a three-year-old, uh, yeah, it's kind of a tough one to be tipping on top. Um, see where you're coming from, Nathan. Um, take it you're not taking the $18 in the Melbourne Cup for the budgie smuggler anytime soon.
SPEAKER_02No, I had no knocks on him, but uh I do think there's better.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, geez, I'll be wanting nearly triple that to even even consider having a speck of it. Uh, what about you, Josh? Uh, how are you finding the Premier's Cup this time around?
SPEAKER_00Fair, like you said, fair even race, and because of that, like you mentioned, Elliptical hasn't won in three years, but I I'm happy to play it each way on top here. I just think I really like the run last start. I think that's the right form line coming into this race, and now it's got to go up one kilo, but if it can jump and settle a bit more forward, I think it can easily run a place in this race. And at 16 to win, 350 to place. I'll put elliptical each way on top from Bonnie Face. I agree with you, Nathan. Uh D-Day here, fifth up. It's been running really well. We'll get that bit of give back in the grand this weekend, probably be on an uh improving soft deck there, maybe a soft five, something like that. Maybe upgrade to a good four later on in the day. But $2.70. If we're getting maybe $3.50, I probably would have put it on top, but I think maybe just a bit too short in the market. So elliptical each way from Bonnieface. I put the budgie smuggler in for third, but my knock on that is I think its best form is out uh 2,400 metres plus, and first up, it just might need the run. But it was a really good win, like you mentioned, in the Calowandra Cup there, Nathan. And obviously, um that's been a proven form line going on now to run well um in the big cups races there down in Melbourne. So it might be one. I obviously want a bigger price than what it is now as well, boys, but it's one that you can probably follow forward into the campaign. And then I'll put Matusalum in for fourth. I thought it was a really good run there behind Elias. Uh, third up to 2,000 metres. It uh again, though, 11 goes at the track for two placings and drawing a bit of an awkward gait here. Might have to get a bit back a bit further than it wants to, but it is going really well this campaign, so must include in the numbers. But at the price, I'll I'll go with elliptical each way.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. I really wanted to find a spot for elliptical in my numbers, but geez, just that striker. I need to see him back in the winner's circle before I can back him with any sort of trust. Um you know, a horse that I ended up uh tipping as a three-year-old, I think, to come out and win, I think it might have been a spring champion or something, going off his run. It was a great run, I guess, going all the way back to the core for guineas. Um, but yeah, a lot of time between now and then. I've gone with the budgie smuggler on top, uh, just for consistency's sake. Uh look, yeah, this horse coming out, really nice win there up there in the Sunshine Coast winning the Kalandra Cup. Um gets into this race nicely weighted as well with 55 kilos, you know, for four and a half less than changing the guard. Um I just think sets up really nicely and just brings a different form line away from that LES form, uh, um, which is one that I wanted to look for. We're getting $4.60, so it's starting to get a little bit short here, but sort of pretty well found in the market. But yeah, totally understand why. So I've gone its way from Matusalum. Um look, Matusalum was fine in that LES race, had a bit more favours than what you got with Bonnyface, but I'm liking the price that I'm getting at the moment. Bonny face goes in there for third, and then I'll chuck in changing the guard. I I wanted to get your boys' opinion on uh on elliptical um if you didn't end up tipping it in your numbers, because it's the fascinating runner for me in that race. Um because if he goes to his best, he's certainly up to a race like this and should be a lot shorter than the $16 on offer. So we'll see what the market does. Uh but Elias, I'm happy to risk him in race number five. Let's move on to toy show quality. Uh got a really short price favorite here in apocalyptic. Um first up here, big stack of owners, of course, with the My Racehorse runners. They always seem to go around unders. So, Nathan, did you factor that into your tipping with uh apocalyptic on top or potentially gone for a little bit of value in this race?
SPEAKER_02Well, I factored it into the fact that it shouldn't be as short as it is. I just think that the market's, I mean, like you said, obviously a betting stable. Uh they're gonna bet into their into their horse they own. So the market's adjusted in that regard. But uh what's Sabi Halley done wrong? I I just can't believe the price. I think $3.80 is an absolute bet. Not, you know, overly keen. I mean, it's only seven horses, but you know exactly what you're gonna get from her. She's gonna jump, she's gonna roll forward, and she's gonna give a bold side. And that's exactly what she did second up last prep when rolling apocalyptic and very nearly uh third up. Uh new we rolled tempted as well. So I think she could do something similar here. She draws soft enough from barrier six, can just slide across, Nash Rilla on a front runner. Yes, please, tick, tick, tick. I mean, she's going to prove hard enough to hold out. I think $4, you can do some shopping. I think that's a fair price. Happy to have a keen bet on Savvy Halley. And the one I'm going to save on and have a little chop-out bet on is a horse that she's been a frustrating type. But number seven Kerensky here at the price at around that $19. I'm happy to have a bet on her. In case to go a little bit too quick, she's the one I think can swamp them late. The trials have just been okay, but first up was when uh she got her maiden win. And uh ever since then, I know she hasn't been able to get that second win on the board, but she comes out of some good form lines again, uh, with the likes of Tempted and obviously behind Savvy Halley. And you look at that first up effort last prep when beaten by Savvy Halley. She was one of the ones that I thought finished off really, really nicely. So if they go too quick, she could be the one swamping them there with the 53 kilos on her back. So a six kilo swing on the top two in the market. So expect Karinska to be finishing off well. So they're my two bets, Savvy Halley, Karinska. I think they're both fair enough prices. In for third, I've chucked in Apocalyptic. I just can't get around the price. So I mean she could come out and swamp them and win well, but we'll be having none of mine at the price. Happy to be against at that quote. And then in for fourth, I've chucked in number nine, Gatwick. That's the other one I think will go up on speed. So I'm hoping that uh Dylan Gibbons actually takes a bit of his medicine and just wants to tuck in for cover from barrier one. And if he does, hopefully Savvy Halley can boot clear and get us a very, very nice winner in the toy show quality.
SPEAKER_01Alright, what about you, Josh? How are you seeing the toy show quality over the 1100? You seeing it similar or potentially a few others you can't have a bet on?
SPEAKER_00No, I'm seeing it quite similar. I know uh got to load the weight here, Savvy Halley, but um she got some class on her side and from six, I think Nash can try and get across here and dictate on speed like he did when he beat Apocalyptic last prep. So at $3.80. I'll put Savialli on top from Apocalyptic from Gate 5. It does get a very good run, but $2.25. I want to see it win again before I back it in for third. I'll put in Gatwick. Gatwick's the interesting horse of the race, coming up from a 72 to a group three. So they must have a bit of confidence in this horse and gets down to the minimum the 53 kilos. $7.50 uh looks looks an intriguing price there, especially with another speed runner there to go with Savvy Halley from gate one. Do they decide to kick up or do they get the back of Savvy Halley? Very interesting to see. But uh going through the grades quickly, this Pret Gatwick and the interesting runner for me in the race. And then I'll put Prima Beller in for fourth. This also, again, very good strike, right? 14 starts with seven wins. Rank quick time last start at Ramwick over the thousand beating amazing Eagles, stepping up to the 1100 now. But um draws again to get a nice run. So if you like that, um I couldn't put you off it, but I'll stick with the class here and I'll put Savvy Halley on top.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I I'm gonna agree, and Savvy Halley on top for me as well. Um so tick, tick, tick from all three of us boys. Uh yeah, it just looks to uh just looks to be the class in this race. Um look, obviously the strike rate, you know, 11 starts, three wins, but five placings to its names as well. It doesn't run a bad race very, very often. Um does need to bounce uh uh back off of uh failing, uh course at Group one level in the Phillies and Mayors um race of a 15, the Kuball, uh that was. But I think Savvy Halley, if she's up to half of her ability, she's gonna be finishing top three. Um and if she's as good as we think she is, she should be winning this race. Um and we're getting a half decent prize to find out. I'm glad Apocalyptic's in this race. I I certainly recognise it as the main danger in the race, but I just can't get it that short. And the fact that they matched up first up before in the past over a similar set of trip, and Savvy Halley got the mustard there over um Apocalyptic. I'm just more bullish about it. Goes on top for me. Uh Gatwick goes in there for second as well for everything you boys have outlined. Intriguing runner coming off the benchmark grade. Um I think brings a little bit of X Factor and draws nicely down barrier one. I've gone with Apocalyptic, and then I also Chuck Karinsker in my numbers there too. Um so I'm a bit more bullish about it as well, Nathan. I might be uh having a little savour on it. Um might be the boilover result in that race. Let's move on to the Phillies uh here, boys. Three-year-olds um over the 1200 meters, um, and we've got a pretty open race this time around. Um Agarian Girl has lobbed up your favourite alongside striking alibi, cherry bombshell, and Pembury. Um so a lot of these horses first up after having their birthday. Um, so how are you seeing it for the girls here, Nathan? Any of these look to have a bit of X factor and can be winning this race?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think so. I like this race. I think it's a couple of really, really nice horses, a couple of horses I want to follow into the spring. You know, I'm gonna have two bets here, boys. You're gonna hear that a lot from me uh on this podcast. And I think I am taking one on scope and on spec, and dare I say, on a trial. And uh one of them is the one that's been well backed in the market. That's number nine, striking alibi. I think it's a very, very nice horse. Obviously, X WA type, uh, one first up over there, an open company, then was a total forgive second up uh in the campaign. Since then, been uh brought over to Chris Waller and gets a lovely run here off two really, really nice trials. That latest trial really stuck with me. I thought it was a very, very good piece of work there by the daughter of Hansi Addick. Thinks a very nice type. Tommy Berry jumps on and gets that lovely run from barrier three. Expect this horse to be doing her best work late. I think she's a very talented Philly. And the other one that I want to box up the top of the page, and didn't put a foot wrong, really wrong, uh, last preparation. That's number one, Cherry Bombshell. I think is a very nice type in her own right. I love the trials as well by her heading into this race. Now, her only failure was first up over a thousand metres, but this is first up 1200 in the silver shadow. So I'm expecting her to be very, very primed here. I thought again, the trial was good behind Macha Latte, a horse that's well on the market in a later race. Um, we're going to be talking about. So I think you can, it's all tick-tick-tick for mine. And around $5 striking alibi, $6 Cherry Bromshell. They're the two I'm going to split my stake with in this race, and I think we can get a result. Uh, Info Fourth, I've chucked in number seven, that's Global Goal. Now I know this horse was only a first up winner and debut winner at Wagga Wagga, but it was a uh English race, so it had a bit more merit than it looked. And I thought it was a really impressive win. The trolls since heading into this have been good as well. Draws a nice barrier. Gibbo on from a nice draw. Expect this horse by tip pin a turbo as well. I don't see too many of those running around in Australia, but I think she's a nice type here. First up for the Sergeant Barn. And when they're sort of uh look for any mate, late money for this one. So 13s at the moment. See some money there, maybe uh would be going in my exotic plays, no doubt about that. And then info fourth tractor number two, Pembury. That was one of the sprue courses uh from uh the autumn um last preparation and and and went really, really well. Was a good debut winner uh before winning third up there with uh JMA in the saddle. Let fast horses be fast, will be the key there from Barrier 10. Wouldn't shock to see this horse jump, lead, and win. But pretty keen on my two, Maxi, striking alibi and cherry bombshell, one of my better bets uh betting races of the day, in my opinion.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I I thought it was a pretty good betting race too. What about you, Josh? How are you seeing the silver shadow stakes?
SPEAKER_00I'm seeing it quite similarly to Nathan here, but um different on top runner. I'm with Agrarian Girl on top. I think um I really liked its troll coming into this race. Uh, especially having three trolls here, the Waterhouse uh yard here will have their horses fit ready to go here first up. Timmy Clark on here, $4.80. I really liked its two runs last prep. One its first run at uh 30 to 1. And then I thought it ran very well behind Cheyenne there um before it went to a break there in the Riesling. So if it can get across from seven find a sit, I think it's a fair price there at around the $4.80. And I put it on top from Cherry Bombshell. I I agree, Navan, that was a really good win. And in hindsight, you're getting a great price on the day there, $17 when it beat Medicinal. Medicinal um was, I thought, had that race in the bag, but Cherry Bombshell was just too good. And uh with two nice trials coming into this, should run really well. In for third, I'll put in striking alibi. Just want to see this horse win coming over from WA first before I back it. Some some of them handle it straight away, some of them don't. So I just bit of a wait and see here for this striking alibi, but there's confidence for it definitely in the market. And then in for fourth, the one you mentioned as a failure runner, number seven global goal. I think it can run quite well here. I really I like the winner at Wagger, and then two two trials coming into this by Pinatuba. If they go a bit too hard out front, this horse could be the one coming over the top late, but I'll put agrarian girl on top.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I think it's a good betting race, this one. Uh, and obviously, if you find the winner, you're gonna value takes care of itself. I've gone with Pembury on top, uh, just trusting the JMAC factor as well. Um, ridden this girl uh two times to a victory in one of them as well. Uh look backing up on the one week backup into the golden slipper was just one run too many. Um so it's gone back to the trials, trialed nicely actually there at Deegan uh last time around, and then comes down south once again and finds itself in a pretty good race over the 1200 metres. Uh sticky draw out there from barrier 10. But you got James McDonald, he can make bad barriers look like good barriers, uh, to be honest. So goes on top for me. Cherry Bombshell is that one. Jeez, I wish we got that $16 once again about this girl. Uh won't be seeing that anytime soon. But yeah, look going off that win off the Percy Sykes um was exceptional and has been going uh going really well back at the trials, looks to be going quite nice. Um, Chuck Dinagarian girl uh as well um in the numbers there too. It's gonna be up on speed, and if there's any sort of on-speed favours there at Royal Ramwick, definitely want to be uh keeping it's uh it close, not really tested there on the heavy or soft conditions. We'll see how the track plays on the day. And then Bangkong Hoddy as well to round out the numbers. I like that it's had the one run under its belt. Um of course didn't win on that occasion, but uh had a stack of market support there. I mean it jumped $2.10 um first up off some very, very nice trials. So Bang Kong Hoddy to round out the numbers there. Um want to be keeping it safe. Alright, let's move on, boys. Let's go to the show county quality. Um always get the show county quality and the toy show quality uh mixed up. Um 1200 metres here uh for the three-year-olds and up at group three level. And Campion d'Italia has lobbed up as your favourite. Course, the winner of the Siars um 1400 metre race for the two-year-olds, finds itself first up. Tommy Berry uh jumps on board this time around from Sousay at Macha Latte and enriched. Jeez, how we break down this race, Nathan. Uh, I found this one a tricky, tricky affair.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so did I, Maxi. I thought this was the hardest race of the day. I know it's only uh nine horses, but goodness me, any of these could win. Uh, I'm not gonna be having keen bets in this race, I'll say that. Uh, but there are a few interesting value plays in this race. One of them at an each way price. I'm gonna give it a sprue there that I've got in for second. But on top, I've gone with the size winner, uh, Campione D Italia. I think it's a nice type. Um, I think uh second up win last prep was very, very good, obviously beating Central Europe. Then went on to the slipper, was the lamp lighter, and said, back me, please, uh, in the size. Came out, did a job there, and then was really good in the champagne as well. The two trials have been okay, uh, but been against class as well. Baywocked and also Gringotts in those two trials. A little bit of a query here, boys. Interesting, J Mac doesn't take the right. I thought that was an interesting uh.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I was thinking that as well. Yeah, I thought that was um yeah. I'm not sure why. Do you have any idea, Max?
SPEAKER_01Well, um yeah, uh head scratcher, head scratcher, boys. Uh no no inside knowledge. Yeah, no.
SPEAKER_02I thought initially when I looked at the race, I thought it might have been a weight thing, but no, he could clearly them at the weight, so I'm unsure.
SPEAKER_00But um maybe J Max off with trying the horse club.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah, maybe, maybe.
SPEAKER_00I I don't know what he's done to us. They might be seeing other people at the moment. Yeah, maybe. But uh that's the only thing I can come up with.
SPEAKER_02The only uh query is first up last prep, obviously, that was on debut, was a massive forgive, just nothing went right. So outside of that run, he's fired on all cylinders and been very good. So I think you I'm not overly confident that just be chips in with him, but I've got him on top, and I think he you could probably back him. I reckon wait for the day. He could be a drifter, uh, and that'll be could be telling as well if the market wants to be with him or not. So he just got to sort of that four dollar mark, I think, is a pretty good bet. The one that I think you can have a small bet on is number five, infancy. I think this was going really, really well. She was excellent uh up in the Tats Tiara, obviously uh uh just a uh a little over two months between runs there, uh and has that residual fitness and you know, again, sort of stepped up to 1400 metres, probably wasn't her go, but back over the 1100 here, uh 1200 here, pardon me, from barrier three. She'll get a lovely run. So I just think she's the one that can run a bold race. And I think around the $15, the smaller field, she doesn't have to power over the top of too many of them to be right in the finish. And you only have to go back uh to second up in the preparation. Uh only ran into one better, and that was in flight uh at group two uh against the girls. So I think she's a nice enough type on her day. And at $15, I reckon she can run a race. So at the moment, if I'm gonna lean you into a bet, I reckon infancy sort of each way at the $15 and $4 on the placeline. That's probably the way I'd be leaning at the moment, but I just have too much respect for Campion, so I've got that way on top. In for third, I've gone with Enriched, a horse that on her on its day, uh, is uh a very nice type. And sort of its first two runs of the campaign, uh last preparation, uh sorry, the second up run, last preparation behind King of Rousseau was very, very good. Replicates something like that. Uh you'd imagine he can be in a race like this, probably a little bit out of his depth in his last two runs of the preparation, so can be forgiving. Uh and then info fourth, I've chucked in the horse I mentioned earlier, and that's number seven, Machalate. Uh good trials heading into this. I just thought might be found out over the uh 1200 metres here first up. Definitely one to watch getting out in trip. So campion on top, Maxie, but not a stack of confidence.
SPEAKER_01Alright, what about you, Josh? You any more confident about this race than what Nathan is? Because I found this one a tricky one, too.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I found it tricky too. Nah, not a lot of confidence, but I'm with you, Nathan. I'll go with the favourite on top here, Campion d'Atalia, first up as a three-year-old. Drawing in very awkward gate, though, so whether they're ready first up is the key. So um, yeah, so put on top, but not very confident. Then for second, I'll put in enriched. I think that trial was quite nice, beating plaintiff going into the race. It always runs your one very good race per prep. And um, that run second up last free was quite good buying King of Rousseau and um not too far away from top quality. So um Enriched, I think, can run a good race here from gate two. Uh in for third, I'll put in Sue Sayer. I think this horse is going really well. I like its two wins to N last prep and at Ipswich. I thought it I did not think it would be able to do what it did there to beat uh La Roja there at Ipswich, but it flew from the back end. Has that progressive fitness here with one trial coming here first up? Rachel King jumps on, so it'll be interesting to see where they go to from one. Do they go for a sit or push up? And then in for fourth, I'll put in Machelate, but um with Machelate, it's also dual accepted for the Golden Cup on Sunday, so it could go there, so it could be a late scratching for anyone wanting the back match alarte. But I'll put it in for fourth, but um I'll put Campione on top, but I'm with Nathan. I'm not very confident in the race.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I head scratcher. Head scratcher. We'll leave it at that. Uh Campione d'Italia on top for me. Um, if I could give you any reason why JMAX not riding, maybe because Tommy Berry's been doing the work on this horse at the trials and has trialed very, very well uh behind some very nice horses there. Um apparently he's a bit of a head case. This horse is absolute mad hatter, uh, which a lot of the young cults uh and a lot of the very good ones can be. Um but yeah, I I think this horse oozes ability, and if he's anything half as good as what I think he is, he should be winning a race like this. Um not sure where he goes to. Golden Rose is probably the target in mind. Um get another group one under his belt, and I don't see any reason why not he can't get to that and win another group one. So yeah, I've got to be tipping him in a race like this if I've got that sort of opinion of him. Uh in for second, uh gone with Machelate. Um obviously Jule Nommed, but has trailed quite nicely. If it does lob in a race like this, I think certainly is a winning opportunity. Uh Soupsayer goes in there as well. Um, of course, comes down from Queensland. Very, very interesting runner. Um yeah, uh draws nicely there in barrier one and certainly has a lot of market uh respect as well. Second favourite in a market like this and infancy to round out the numbers too. I I just found it really hard to go around the favourite here. Um and I think we're getting half decent value, but the fact that we're getting $3.50, I think we'll we'll find out on the day because I think Campion d'Italia could firm quite drastically, you know, leading towards a race, maybe even jump in that sort of like $2.40, $2.20 um, you know, after scratchings, firm right in, or could potentially get spat out and go the other way. So yeah, market watch very, very close on that one. Speaking of market watch boys, geez, it's all been talk about the wink stakes, Autumn Glow versus she's an alibi, $1,400 metres, or a ramwick. Nathan, I cannot wait for this uh affair. Of course, Autumn Glow uh had the loss there at 2,000 metres. It's gonna be telling as to what they do with this campaign. Do they continue on in that sort of mile, sort of stretch out and trip um sort of campaign, or do they shorten her ride up and potentially go towards an Everest um, you know, off a bit of a fresh and so gonna be real key uh going into race nine at the wink stakes, and she's an alibi, like she could potentially go on the Epsom path and then go towards uh winning a golden uh that golden eagle. Um same sort of trajectory as what Autumn Glow did last year. So I cannot wait for this mouth ordering affair. $1.75, $3.30, and then you're gonna go all the way out to Baywack at $16 for third one in the betting. So yeah, you look at the likes of the horses that are at double figures Baywak, Gringotch, um Lady Shenandoah, Aliana, Fango, Chow Wolf, Idle Flyer, Linderman, Autumn Boy. I mean, Green Spaces, Barnavaria, like Midnight Dynamite's the only non-group one winner in that whole field. Oh, I cannot wait for this weekend. This is gonna be an absolutely cracking race, Nathan. How do you say uh how are you seeing the race?
SPEAKER_02Now, boys, the term fence sitter gets thrown around.
SPEAKER_01Uh and no sitting on the fence in this race as much as you want. As much as you it it is the kind of race that you could, yes, just sit on the fence and just watch. No, let's call some drama.
SPEAKER_00Let's call some drama, boys.
SPEAKER_01We're gonna tip we gotta tip a winner or two.
SPEAKER_02Alright. Alright, boys. How do I do it? How do I find us a winner in the wink stakes? Now, it's a match race in two, says the market. It's a match race in two. Market's wrong, boys. The market's wrong. Let's have an opinion. Let's get a little crazy. You know, look, one of them can win, obviously. They're the two best horses in this race. They're absolute possible superstar mayors of the turf, but we're getting prices. We're getting prices over the 1400 metres. How can you resist the price of a couple of these horses? So I'm gonna back a couple. Uh, I'm just gonna have a bit of a skip here and see if we can find something. I've got four horses, boys, and I'm just gonna have 25 on each of them and try and get these favourites beat. One of them will probably beat me, and I'm okay with it. Uh, because you've got to be brave, you've got to have an opinion, and fence sitting is for the week. Let's go, let's take on the phase, boys. I've got four horses, let's go through them. First one, we'll go on market order. Number two, Gringotts. Why is this horse $23? Dunno. Absolutely flying at the moment. Two trials have been sensational heading into this race. Has a decent first up profile, loves the 1400 metres, loves Randwick. Uh, obviously, Randy, she's an alibi last time, but does obviously get a little bit of weight, uh a bit of a swing in the weights off that last meeting. Uh, look, I think the thing about Gringotts that I love is that he's just gonna go forward and put himself in the race. Barrier 7, he's forward enough for a race like this. Obviously, might not be classy enough, but Ethan Brown, I reckon he knows what he's doing. Just jump, go to the top, give yourself a bit of a bit of a kick in the ribs and see if Gringotts can get it done and maybe steal the race uh with the likes of Linderman to its outside, obviously going forward as well. So Gringotts gonna have 25 on that. Other one that's gonna go forward, number five, Bavewacht, all age stakes winner, gotta have something on that horse. 1400 metres Randwick loves the track and trip. I thought it was a really good win, too, uh holding off Lazura, who was good in that race. Obviously, has that autumn glow form as well, so you can tie it into that. But that was at Rose Hill. And then prior to that, was only knocked off by Bajol Easter over 1300 metres, and that was in the Canterbury. And I thought it was a really, really good effort that day. Hasn't really got that first up profile. But again, the trials have been good. Tied into the trial with Gringotts. I thought was a really nice effort that day. Barrier four goes forward. Catch me if you can. Bavewalk, I'm going to have a bet there. Another 25, down the bottom of the page, number 12, Lady Shannon Doa. She's one of mine. She will forever be one of mine. And again, you're getting a price to find out there at the $23. Why not? If they go quick enough, she's got a good turn of foot. She can sprint home. Barrier two. And again, she's sort of crying out to get another group one win on her resume. And it you look at her format at Randwick, it's sensational. Nine starts for three wins and five minor placings. She just does not know how to run a bad race. So I'm going to have something on Lady Shannon Doer as well. Now, I've gone through three of them. And now here's where the fence sitting happens, boys. I'm going to do something else in this race with my last 25. I said I was going to back four horses, but I'm not really. Back those three. And I'm going to do something. I'm going to have a little trifecta with the favourites. Autumn Glow and She's an Alibi. One of them to win with all those other selections in for second and third. And we'll try and get all trifecta and chop out if one of those big prices don't win. Probably won't get a big percentage of the trifecta, but maybe money back if we're lucky enough. So nothing crazy there, boys, but um, yeah, that's the way I'm going to play the race. Bit of fun. You've got to take on some favorites sometimes and see how you go. And just a quick one. Can't win on Saturday, but the big watch horse of the weekend for mine is at $201 in this race. It's called Barnavara. Now, this horse at $201, it can't win, but watch it fly home and watch this be a big spring watch horse. I talked about this horse being a possible Queen Elizabeth winner last prep. Came out first up and was dead set dreadful. Will improve.
SPEAKER_01We were all keen on it in the pod. Like we were all given it a huge sprook. And then I think J Mac gave probably one of his worst rides of the year on the horse. And look, we'll put we'll put it down to that because honestly, the horse it was too bad to be true.
SPEAKER_02Too bad to be true. Horse, one of the big watch horses coming out of this race, Barnavara. It won't run last, it won't run first, but it'll be somewhere middle of the pack screaming home, and everyone will say, I'll back you uh probably third up in the campaign. So Barnavara, just one I want to uh wanted to spruok out there. But boys, it's a mouth ordering clash. Obviously, one of the two uh mayors probably win the race, but let's show some gusto. Let's see if we can take it on.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Oh no, I love it. I'm all for it. I love the uh the bet strat that you got going there, Nathan. Uh, what about you, Josh? How are you seeing this race? Uh, can you potentially find us a winner in the wink stakes?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I've got two bets, boys, and um you heard it here first. She's alibi will definitely beat home Autumn Clow. I'm very keen. There's a juice. I'm very keen, she's alibi this weekend, boys. Moody Coleman would not bring this horse up here for no reason if they didn't think it was going to win this race. And $3.30, I think that is a cracking price. So I'm gonna have two bets. $80 to win on Cheese Alibi. Um, I just think um you they should not be that far apart in the market. I think $3.30 is a cracking price. So either when she's an alibi.
SPEAKER_01With Autumn Glow once she's an alibi was confirmed coming to the race. She's an alibi with $4 crunched into $2.50 in the all-in market. And obviously, barriers they got drawn, and now she's an alibi draws barrier one, autumn glow, barrier three. Do you reckon that's sort of maybe $1.75, $1.90 versus $2.50, $2.60? That's sort of the true market of what you prefer to see, Josh?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I think I think Autumn Glow deserve to be about $2.20, $2.30. And I think she's an alibi should be about $2.70, $2.80. I think I think there should be about half a point between them and the market. I think that would be fair. But to be at nearly double the price, I think's crazy. I really do. I mean, that that Guineas and Doncaster win were outstanding. And without that, I thought the first up run was just as good as the other two. If you look at what Sack Spain had to do on the rail at Caulfield first up, just needs the gap at the right time from gate one. I think that's the only negative. Nolan would have loved to just sit on Autumn Glow's back, but I think he's gonna have to find himself a path somewhere from midfield, get out at the right time. I think he can do it. I think he's on uh I think he's on the better horse in the race. So I'm gonna 80 the win on She's an Alibi and 20 the win saver on Baywalk, if there's any track bias, because $16. I think you're getting a cracking price. Now I will say there is a little bit of speed in the race, but if he pushes Nash on Baywok, he should be able to get the lead quite comfortably, like he did in the all age. It's just whether he gets run down first up. Don't know the best first up record, but he trolled really well, and it's been a while since he's been first up running on a bend as well, and we all agree that Baywok's a better bend horse around the 1400 metres. So main betches alibi, save a Bawok. Autumn Glow goes in for third, but can't even touch that price. And then in for fourth, I'll put in Lady Shenandoah. I think it will be right around there, and it must include normal exotics. I believe Aliana's gonna scratch for the Memzi next week, so I wouldn't be shocked if on the day Aeliana comes out. But uh very keen boys, she's alibi and saver on a baywok.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, because I was almost half tempted to have a little spook on uh spruk on Aliana, but obviously no jockey nommed. Um I I think I prefer it going towards a Memzi instead. Uh oh, geez, I I thought I was being bold coming into this podcast, but you boys have almost just sort of outboldened me as well. I was just saying that she's an alibi is gonna beat home Autumn Glow. That's uh very bold of you, Josh, but no, I love it, I love it. Um and the four-bet strat trying to get these favourites beat. That's the path I've gone down as well, Nathan. I went the exact same way where I'm just I can't believe I'm getting double figures about Beyward over the 1400 metres in a group one from barrier four. Soft conditions, yes, soft maybe in that heavy range, maybe not ideal for Beyward. But any liquor bias, oh, this horse is gonna absolutely lap it up in Beyward. Um so my bet strat 25 the win on all these horses. Beyward goes on top for me. Uh Nashra Willa sticks on this horse, which I think is really telling when you consider that Nashawilla is almost known as like the Linderman uh sort of whisperer, like got the best out of the Linderman and its career to all of its group one victories, and now Huey Bowman has come over. He's gonna be riding on the board of Linderwin while Nash coming off the all-adge stakes win is gonna be sticking with this horse. So I think that's really telling and fills me with a bit more confidence. So hence why I've got it on top. And even if I didn't have the bet strap sort of split up like this, I just can't go past the price. Like you're getting $16 third favourite in what looks like a two-horse field, but uh and I understand all of the glows and she's an alibi are the absolute cream to the cream, they're the best horses in the country at the moment, uh, and they're meeting first up. I just think that if there's any bit of vulnerability about either of these runners, uh any sort of upset could potentially happen in this race. And Beyward, I think, is the one that I'm gonna be tipping on top to do that, but it goes on top. In for second, I've gone with Fangirl, $25 the win. In for third, I've gone with Chow Wolf, $25 the win. And in for fourth, I've gone with Barnavaria as well at 200 to 1 for the big, big result. Because I don't want to get Via Sistina. If you remember this race last year, where I think it was what Via Sistina came out first up huge in this race, um, nearly knocking off, I think it was Fangirl in the race, so who started a very, very short price favourite. I'm gonna have to go back.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, Fangirl won the race last year.
SPEAKER_01Fangirl won the race last year, and then Via Sistina was huge a couple years ago. Oh, we're going back two years, sorry, huge up on the inside, nearly stole the race, and everyone's like, oh my god, back this horse. Barnavari's got a little bit of that about it, because I think Barnavare is on a cocksplate path. Um, could be the new Via Sistina in the stable. Four-year-old mare, group one winner over in uh over in Longchamp. Yeah, it's run first up was too bad to be true. Um, so I I just really want to be respecting this um this beautiful four-year-old mare. And at 200 to 1, I just can't believe the price. I have to have something on. So for the big chopo out, $25 to win on Barnavaria, I I think I think there's worse ways you could be spending your money. I think Greenspaces, Midnight Dynamite, and Linderman are the only horses in this race that can't win. Outside of that, I feel like you could make a case for Autumn Boy, drawn very softly, and if he goes back to his brilliant best, he's not bad first up. Idle Flyer off a huge run there in the Queen of the Turf, Nathan. Like, and Aliana as well, another horse that we've seen exceptional things out of first up. I can't believe this race, Nathan. I cannot believe it.
SPEAKER_02Isn't it incredible, boys, that we've all had these amazingly like outlandish takes? Max and I, we said, take it on the faves. You want to take them on, 25 each on a bunch of different horses. Josh says, she's an alibi, dead set, M word-esque sort of stuff, right?
SPEAKER_01Autumn glow is done. Autumn glow is is dusted. Go to the breeding barn, career over.
SPEAKER_02The only horse we haven't talked about winning this race is Autumn Glow at a dollar seventy odds with J Mac and Wallah first up in the wink stakes, and we're the that's the only horse, and none of us have gone just wins. And it's just crazy to think. I mean, she probably does just come out and make us look like absolute gooses, but that's what we love about this podcast, boys. We we we're not here to bloody uh tip into a dollar seventy, please.
SPEAKER_00We're happy to eat crow next week if we're wrong. I mean, it's fine. It's fine.
SPEAKER_01We're happy to eat exactly, exactly. It's just like I'll be eating ramen for a week if uh Autumn Glow just comes out and absolutely towers up the competition because she has on previous occasions, but I reckon they've been very, very protective over this girl uh in particular. They've been very specific with the races that they've targeted. And Chris Waller, he is a habit trainer and he's very good at that. But now all of a sudden, there's no more hiding. You can't be going towards like a golden eagle, and obviously, like you know, winning handicap races, she's a multiple group one winner as well, um, beating some top-tier competition and doing it in style in a lot of those as well. Um, but she had a few frights there going around at some very short odds. I mean, she went around at $1.25 and nearly got knocked off by the stable mate, Ariana, um, second up there over the mile. Um that was a lot earlier from Aeliana and what we expected there. Of course, um going towards the Golden Eagle, she was good, but I mean she wasn't $1.75, like she's an alibi absolutely dominating a Doncaster good. Um so yeah, it's just I I I find it such a fascinating race, and yes, we could all just have egg on our head this time next week. Um, you know, talking about how good Autumn Glow is and where she's gonna be going towards. Is she gonna freshen up, go towards that Everest, or is she gonna be continuing the campaign, maybe go down the Epsom path and carry a huge weight for a mayor? We don't know, but I I I'm I'm glad all three of us are against her. Um, because yeah, tipping her on top, I think this is the best opportunity we've ever had in her career, outside of maybe first or second up to try and tip against Autumn Glow and potentially get some money. Um other than last start there going around in the Queen Elizabeth. So look she's been beaten once in her career, uh, and that was stretching out to 2,000 metres, which I think we all agree now uh in retrospect, she doesn't quite see out the trip, or that was just such a tough assignment for her first two uh trip at 2,000 metres, Josh. Um so I I can't believe none of us are tipping her. Uh I cannot believe none of us are tipping her, Josh.
SPEAKER_00Um yeah, I tipped her for third.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Yeah, all right, yeah, tipped her for third, uh, which is where she finished in the Queen Elizabeth. But um, yeah, geez, it's just money speaks all languages, and the fact that we're getting value about this, I can't believe it. If Barnavario comes out and wins at 200 to 1 and I've got a 25er honor, um, yeah, you you won't be speaking to me for the next two months. So I'm gonna be over in the Bahamas, I'm gonna be lapping it all up. Um, yeah, it it's gonna be geez. I I don't I don't think sports better be able to liquidate uh like they're they're gonna be filing for chapter five or chapter seven, sorry. Uh um if Barnumaria comes out. Um yeah, cannot wait for this weekend, boys. It's gonna be an absolute spectacle. Um and could potentially be the race of the spring already, and it's the first group one of the season, so I cannot wait. Cannot wait. But before we leave you with that, we've got to be giving the punters some best bets for this weekend. So Nathan will come to you first. Best bets this weekend. Where are they lobbying?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, look, I'm going all over the shop here, boys, so bear with me. Uh, I've had a couple, I've got one, uh, I've got two horses in one race at Randwick. I've got a couple at Sandown, I've got a couple, I've got one at Doomban. So I'll try and get through them really, really quickly. I just couldn't make up my mind, so I'm gonna tip them all. Uh, we'll go back to race number four at Randwick. It's a benchmark 78 over the mile. Everyone's saying King of the Seas. King of the Seas, guys, just gonna win. Please take it on. Lay of the day. Can't win. J Mac, no chance at all. Cannot win. Uh, three starts, Lay, get out of here, please. Autumn glow areas. Uh, we'll go through to the bottom of the page for mine. They're the two bets. Number 12 of Vista. Want to stick with it after that last start win. We saw a horse called Mind Your Biz uh come out and get the win, albeit on protest subsequently. But I think it's a very, very nice horse, this one uh by Maurice. I think she's a nice type. Draws a little bit awkwardly there from Barrier 12, but Brave Knock gets the claim, just dragged back, son. Fourth up at the mile. I think it's a very, very nice type. Happy to be backing this horse yet again. Backed it last time, was good to me. I'm happy to stick. And in the same race, number 14, Barking Mad. You boys know that I love a bit of SP profile, and this horse brings exactly that. Every start this prep 230, 550, 550, even money at Canterbury when roll. But here, fifth up, two the mile, drawn okay there in barrier eight. Tyler Schiller, just give us a bit of a peach. And if there's one horse that can beat a Vista, I'm gonna call it Barking Mad because it is not King of the Sea. Lay of the day. 270. Boys, get on the fare, won't run a place. Look at me go. Uh, and let's go over to Sandown. Uh no, we'll go to Duman for my value runner. I'm actually pretty keen on one here on the each way. That's around the $8.50, about $3 on the place one. We go to race number four. This is a benchmark 80 over the 2200 metres. A horse that I've been waiting to step up in trip gets to the 2200 metres for the first time uh in its career. And that's number eight, Amplify. I think it's a really nice type here for Kieran Marg. Back on top of the ground should be key. Stepping out to 2200 metres. And I really like that run behind Barber. I thought the Barber form was the best form to take out of this uh uh into this race. And on firm going, seven starts for three wins and another minor placing, up in trip, lovely run here with Guffman Chester in the saddle. Should get that perfect sit from barrier six, will be peeling out and running really, really well at the each way odds. Uh, pardon me, the daughter of Microphone. I think she's a nice type on her day. Been a while since she's picked up a win, but I think she fits in really, really nicely here in a race. This should be a decent tempo. So watch for her to be powering over the top. Amplify at Doomban, one of my best value bets of the day. And then we'll jump over to Sandown. I've got two more races I want to cover there, boys. And one of them's the feature. Gonna go to race number seven on the program. That's the Carlin Stakes, over a thousand metres for the three-year-olds. Again, I'm gonna take on a favorite here. Calvary Girl is the fave. Want to be hard against this favorite. I'm keen on two horses. I'm gonna back number nine, Extra Galactic. Fair Income. I mean, what's this horse done wrong? Well, I I know it's uh a thousand metres first up, but that horse destroyed uh benchmark 62 field first up last preparation uh over a thousand metres and subsequently was brilliant uh at Caulfield over 1200. I know uh, you know, fresh form, you just never know, but Lockie Nyindorf gets on board yet again, just that one start for one win. She's got some really good form lines, obviously, through Tycoon Star and also Desert Lightning. What prices would those sorts of horses be in this level? I think would be very uh would be right there in the market, albeit probably not over a thousand metres. But I think it's a good guide for how good this horse could be. And she could already be a group one winner here uh in a race like this, so I think she's worth a bet at the $4.20. And I know again, a thousand metres isn't the go, but twelve dollars here for Ole Dancer. I'm happy to chop out on her. I think she's a nice bet there as well, at around that $12. Two barrier two, Benny Mellum in the saddle, gets that soft run, good first up profile, albeit never over a thousand metres. But I just can't let it go around at twelve without having something on. I want to be against hedged, I want to be against Calvary Girl, so I'm gonna be pretty keen bets there with Extra Galactic and also Ola Dancer. And then my best bet anywhere in the country, Fair Dincombe, it should be outright favourite, and I can't believe it's not, and that is race number eight, number seven, Gold Coast Bell. This horse will be winning and winning really, really well. This horse was going strength to strength at the end of last preparation, won the Benigo Ginnings at the end of last campaign and did it impressively. Sat wide no cover and still gave them a shellacking. And then uh prior to that was excellent at Corfield as well in a benchmark 74. This horse just continued to go through the grades first up here, draws the one pole, let Tennessee Bound do all the work up on speed. You're getting 270 a pair. I think Gold Coast Bell should dead set be even money. I think she's the best bet anywhere in Australia this weekend. Beat big Keen, uh big bet of the weekend, $2.60. Bet down to evens if you can, because there's not much else in this race I think can be beating her. I think she's very progressive for team Danny O'Brien. So some bullishness at the end of the podcast, and it's all a bit of fun, boys. At the end of the day, I'm sure I'll get uh some abuse in the comments, but that's alright. It's what we're here for.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Jeez, might be going head to head in that race, uh, Gold Coast Bell and Tennessee bound. Uh mate, six pack.
SPEAKER_02Oh, mate, dead set, fit income. Um no, we'll we'll do a spank bet. You can get over my knee.
SPEAKER_01Tell you what, I look forward to uh giving you once over, twice over. I'll get the belt ready. Uh that's for sure. Tennessee bound is gonna be absolutely tiling up Gold Coast Bell. I can tell you that much. Um, yeah, we're certainly on for a six-pack. Um, Josh, do you want to join us in on the six-pack uh slash slap of the ass bet?
SPEAKER_00Uh no, I'll leave that to you, boys. I've got I've got this weekend. What do you got? I've got my best bet at Sydney, and then I've got a couple of failure runners, one at Sydney and one, like I mentioned at the start of the pod overseas. But I rarely do this, but I'm making my best bet a race in the midway, and I'm going to race number one at Ramwick. My best bet of the day, we're with the favorite here, number eight for Renzo. I think this horse is a very progressive horse here. I really liked its free runs last prep. Sits on speed, drawing a nice gate here. Uh, just missed third at the end of last prep. Comes into this with two really nice trolls here. The last one being at uh Rose Hill. I think Tim Clark just jumps. He sits on speed, and I think he's gonna be too good. And at the $4 I make for Renzo, my best bet of the day. Then the lucky last, we're getting J Mac for Walla at double figures, and I don't know why. Race number 10 at Ramwick, number 11 Hydricks. I think that's my throw runner of the weekend in Australia. Really like the price here. Thought the trials were okay, but I just go back to how it won its first start as a two-year-old. You wouldn't put it against older horses first up as a three-year-old if you didn't think it could measure up. And J Mack and the Lars at double figures. I just think you're getting a great each-way price there for Hydricks. And then we're going overseas, boys. We're going to York on Saturday night, but it's not the E ball. A couple of races earlier, race number three is at the uh City of York Stakes, a group one over 1,400 meters. And we're going with a horse that conditions might not suit, track might not suit, but I've got a feeling stepping up to the 1400 meters might be the right thing for this horse. So race number three, number eight, Satono Rev at around the $10. Now, usually I wouldn't back the Japanese over there, but this horse has had two very good runs over there this campaign. Unlucky just to miss at Royal Ascot in the Jubilee, and then I just think it needs to be written roof cover and Lemaire decide to lead on it in the July Cup. That race has already had something come out of the form line and win with Coppel. And I think stepping up to the 1400 might be the right go here for Saturno Rev. It's never run that I've seen further than six furlongs. So to the 400 meters, Joe Moreira goes over there to the UK, and we're getting $10. I mean, it's not facing Kying Rising. So I think you're getting a great price there each way to find out. So they're they're my best bets for the weekend. Ferenzo Hydrix and Satono Rev Boys, a couple at some nice prices.
SPEAKER_01No, I agree. Uh I reckon it's gonna be a cracking, cracking race. And uh oh geez, buddy, calm down, eh? Calm down. Yeah. Best bets this weekend. Uh I'm also lining up with you as well. I'm pretty keen on Hydrix in the last there at Royal Ramick. I tried to tip it last week and ended up uh avoiding going towards the rosebud and instead decide to come to this race. Um yeah, I reckon it's up to this race to its ears. Draws nicely, J Mackong ticks all the boxes, yes, please. Uh should be winning a benchmark 78. I think it's much better than that. Um, and I think the stable agrees as well. I've gone with Tennessee bound down south in Sandown, race number eight there, benchmark 88, six starts, six wins, uh, is better than six starts, four wins, and two seconds. Uh look, I actually agree. I think it's a cracking match race, and I think it's it's definitely between those two. And it's just sort of pick what you like. Uh, I I think I trust the apprentice Jabes Johnson uh a little bit more than Logan Bates at the moment. Um, absolutely airborne. So, yeah, difference of opinions. That's a great thing about uh the racing game. Uh cannot wait for it. And then I've also gone to race number three here. This is one of the staying events here. Um open race. Um look, I I went for a little bit of value. Didn't mind Tempesty in this race. Um, look, this horse, long time between wins. It's last win was at group three level, all the way back in 2023. Um, but I think it's been just building nicely into the campaign. I thought it was a really good run there. Um behind Bold Soul there look almost won that race. It was only 0.3 of the length uh from winning it. Um and I thought it was fair. Last start there at Flemington. Now it finds itself at Sandown, a track that it's run well at in the past. Um Harry Coffey jumps on board 15 bucks. I think you can do worse and $3. Uh 40. I I reckon it's definitely going to be running top three. So Tempesty for me in race number three at Ramwick. Oh sorry, at Sandown, uh down south in the staying affair 2400 metres. That's it for the pod. Hopefully, uh tipped a stack of winners, and we're not going to get rolled by Autumn Glow and any winnings that we get early in the day just get given straight back to the Tab and sports bet, but we'll see how we go. Nathan, thanks for joining as always, mate.
SPEAKER_02No, absolutely pleasure. Uh an absolute pleasure, Maxie. It's been an absolutely brilliant potty. Uh just bloviating and talking rubbish, but that's what it's all about. Having an opinion and seeing how we go on the weekend. We'll hold ourselves accountable next week. I'm sure uh it may end up being that match race. Cannot wait for it. Autumn glow, she's an alibi, and obviously Gold Coast Belt to give Tennessee bound an absolute licking uh down south as well. So it should be a cracking weekend. Can't wait, Maxie.
SPEAKER_01Yep, yep, no, cannot wait either. Josh, go well this weekend.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, thanks, boys. Looking forward to this weekend. My prediction is tab time offer, Autumn Glow $5. Max $20 bets, so that the tab can get extra $20 off everyone that backs Autumn Glow. So good luck this weekend, boys. And yeah, um, I hope you have an egg on my face if she's alibi doesn't come out and just win.
SPEAKER_01Don't have any inside information as to what the tab time offer is going to be, but uh I might we'll find out. We'll find out. We'll see what we can get. Uh go well this weekend. Good luck to all the punters, and as always, good luck on the punt.