The Causey Consulting Podcast

Bonus Episode: Housing Market ➡ Job Market

July 04, 2022
The Causey Consulting Podcast
Bonus Episode: Housing Market ➡ Job Market
Show Notes Transcript

The pendulum is swinging away from a seller's market to a buyer's market. Honestly, this should come as a surprise to no one. Here's the deal: what do you think is happening in the job market RN?

 ✔️ Elon kicked the door open and told you, "RTO or leave." Now Zuck is telling you, "Hey, if you wanna quit, it's totally fine by us."
✔️ The CEOs and power brokers know what's coming. They have not been shy in saying so.
✔️ If no one has ever told you that there may be times in life when you gotta work a job you dislike in order to have a salary and benefits, well, wake up up up up up. IMHO, this downturn is gonna really separate the real ones from the social media panderers.

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Hello, Hello, and thanks for tuning in. I hope that you are having a happy and safe Fourth of July if you live in the United States. If you're outside this country, then I hope you're having a great Monday. I wanted to hop on and record a bonus episode because I felt like this information was too important to wait. I wanted to get it out before the special Saturday broadcast. I just deeply feel that it's that important. I saw an article on Yahoo Finance titled how quickly the tables have turned falling mortgage rates have homebuyers so emboldened? They're asking sellers for cash and quote. So here's why. I want to talk about this for one thing. Yes, obviously it highlights that the times they are changing in the housing market, but there's a very clear parallel between the housing market and the job market. I know some of you are going to be ready to throw rotten tomatoes at me. I get it. I'm willing to be that voice coming out across the airwaves saying please don't be caught off guard. Please be prepared for rapidly changing economic conditions. This is not the time to play games. This is not the time to be a denialist This is the time to perk your ears up. Keep your head on a swivel and look around and be aware not paranoid, not Chicken Little but aware. If you scroll down in this article, you will find Austin real estate agent Lilly Rockwell says that the market has already started favoring buyers and that she just helped the client negotiate a purchase for under list price. It's fabulous. Finally tons of choices, very little competition she tweeted on Thursday. She's also been advising clients to ask for seller credits, a cash payment that seller that the seller gives the buyer at closing to help them buy down their mortgage rates and quote, and yet, I still see realtors and brokers on social media saying the market is hot. It's still a seller's market. It's nothing like 2008 why we're not in a housing bubble. We're not headed for any kind of housing crash. You guys just keep on buying and selling and rocking and rolling. And I'm like, Yeah, I'm I'm really not sure what what kind of planet somebody is on. If they're getting high on their own supply, if that's what they really think, not an economist, I'm don't sit on the World Economic Forum. I myself am not a real estate agent, or a mortgage broker, just a private individual with some common sense, who lived through the 2008 to 2010. Great Recession. I also remember what it was like when the housing bubble popped, and it was freaking awful. Seemed like every street that you turn down, had multiple foreclosures. And you know, the houses were rundown, they look terrible, because nobody was there taking care of them anymore. It was very depressing. So okay, play games, if you want to Sure. It's not 2008. Well, we could never have anything like that happen again, over. Now, we also have information about the five year adjustable rate mortgages in this article. Likewise, over in the UK, Bo Jo, our old friend Bo Jo, who says if you work from home, you drink too much coffee and you eat too much cheese. He has decided that in the UK, maybe people need 50 year mortgages. Oh, and your kids can inherit that debt too, by the way. Personally, I think 30 years is a long time to be on the hook for your house. But at least theoretically, you can say all right, if you purchase a house when you're 30 or 35 years old, and you live there for the full amount of time you make your payments on time and everything's kind of groovy, then at least when you turn 60 or 65, then you own the house free and clear other than homeowners insurance and property tax. Even if you decide to throw caution to the wind and do away with your homeowners insurance, you're still going to have to pay the property tax. So I mean, you own it free and clear, theoretically wink wink, but 50 year mortgage. Good Lord. In any case, we're at least starting to hear that houses that would have flown off the market last summer are not flying off the market this summer. They're sitting. Now we have buyers saying it's our turn. We're taking back power. We're taking back control, and we're not going to buy your junk houses at exorbitant rates. If you want us to buy this house from you. What are you going to do for us last summer it was like you better show up with a million dollars a bouquet of roses and a steak dinner with all the trimmings or we won't even look in your direction. Now it seems the pendulum is swinging to the opposite side. So how does this relate to the job market? Well, I'm glad that you asked. The all important jobs report is supposed to be released. At 7:30am, central

time 8:

30am Eastern Time on Friday morning. And of course, they're gonna tell you X number of jobs were created. Now, will they be honest about things? I don't know? Or will they say nothing to see here, people move along, move along. Who knows. So the official jobs report is going to come out later this week. I feel like there's been a pretty clear parallel between the hotness and the FOMO. And the yo lo and the insanity that has happened in the housing market, versus what we've seen in the labor market, the everybody on TV, labor shortage, labor shortage, it's like a bad parent, labor shortage, labor shortage and people that own companies lamenting on the TV will nobody wants to work anymore. And his entire generations of kids that are just lazy as hell, it's like, really. Meanwhile, if you actually talk to candidates who are out on the job market, you'll have more than a few who say I applied all over town, and I only got one callback, or I went in a restaurant with a help wanted sign in the window. And the manager told me Well, actually, we can't afford to hire anybody right now. But we can't take the sign down for optics and it's like, huh, strokes long devil beard thoughtfully. I wonder what's really going on. Because it seems like there's a lot more to the story than what we're being told. So I think in the same way that during the Great resignation, employees and job seekers held all the cards, the pendulum is already swinging back in the other direction. I'm so sorry if this is a bubble bursting, I'm so sorry. If this is brand new news to you, but it is high, high time, if not past time to wake up, up, up, up up. In the same way that Elon Musk kicked the door open and said RTO er, it's your job, you know, you can go pretend to work somewhere else. But you're you're gonna be back button seat if you want to continue working for me. We see a similar phenomenon playing out over at meta. There's a headline I will be talking about this in the Saturday broadcast. But there's a headline on the New York Post titled Mark Zuckerberg, we're turning up the heat at menace so employees will quit? Oh, he doggies. I think that we are not in for a pleasant time. I understand. Okay, I'm gonna get hate mails. And when people are gonna say you're being an ER, you're getting too pessimistic. I'm just trying to be real. I think that there is a middle path between being a complete and total er, and Oh bother, Everything's bad and times are going to be tough forever and ever. No, they won't. They won't. Versus toxic positivity, toxic optimism. You know what sometimes poop happens in life. Not every single deal is gonna go our way. Not every single day that we have on this planet is going to be the best day that we ever had, excuse me, sometimes things are going to be kind of lousy. And you might have a period of time in your life where you have to batten down the hatches and clamp down on the fund budget and do things on the cheap. I'm going to read a little bit from this New York Post article now. Zuckerberg frank admission came during a q&a session with employees in which he warned that a recent slump in the markets might be one of the worst downturns that we've seen in recent history. Realistically, there are probably a bunch of people at the company who shouldn't be here. Zuckerberg said during the meeting, according to Reuters, part of my goal, my part of my hope by raising expectations and having more aggressive goals and just kind of turning up the heat a little bit is that I think some of you might decide that this place isn't for you. And that self selection is okay with me. Zuckerberg added in quote, wow. Also, we'll be talking about this on the next Saturday broadcast, but like sometimes business owners or companies will do this kind of thing. Because they don't want to be on the hook for benefits. They don't want to have a big layoff or optics sake, the shareholders who they really answer to let's be real. These companies answer to the shareholders, the investors, the Board of Directors, they don't answer to you and me is one big club and you and I are not. And if they don't answer to us, they answer to those investors and their vendors, shareholders. And if those individuals are saying we need to trim the herd, okay, we need to get the numbers up. We need to get rid of some people that came in at inflated salaries need them gone, that's what's going to happen. So sometimes these companies don't want to be on the hook for paying unemployment or other types of benefits and they think if I can just get you to quit on your own, then so be it. There's the door Buh bye. I think we will see more of this. And there's an old expression the tallest blade of grass is the surest to get cut. Some of the people who went in at inflated exorbitant salaries that were kind of like putting themselves on the market in the form of highway robbery. They're going to be the surest to get cut. Mark my words. This is not the time to put your head in the sand and play games in My opinion. Now nothing I'm saying to you here should be taken as legal, financial, moral, spiritual or career advice of any kind. I'm a private individual, putting out my opinions. And as Dennis Miller has always said, these are just my opinions. And I could be wrong. Maybe tomorrow, some miracle happens in the markets, and everything is hunky dory and sunshine and roses. I don't know it could happen. Who knows? In my opinion, this is not the time to play games, this is not the time to be yellow and FOMO. And spending crazy amounts of money and not paying attention. Keep your head on a swivel and stay alert. Because I think in the same way that the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction in the housing market, we're seeing the same thing occurring in the job market. So my friends, you need to be prepared for instead of a candidate or employee driven market, a client driven market where corporate America holds all the cards, and you may have to eat a dirt sandwich to keep your job. I understand. I understand. I am going to get hate mail people are going to be so mad at me. Oh, they're gonna be mad. How dare you say that? How dare you say that I might have to do a job that I don't like, in order to have a salary in order to have health care. Where do you get off lady? Well, I remember what it was like, I wasn't a kid who just finished high school or who just finished college in 2008. Okay, I was out on my own. With a mortgage payment, a car payment. I had to keep my job so that I could have health insurance I had, you know, like auto insurance and homeowners insurance and all that crap I had to pay for I had to put food on the table. And let me tell you, you know, when your stomachs growling and you don't hardly have any money in the bank, you're gonna do whatever you have to do in order to survive. I'm not telling you that it's going to be sunshine and roses. I'm not a LinkedIn Pandora. That's if you're coming here for that, then you can leave. I'm trying to be as real with you as I possibly can, that we may be in for one hell of an economic pinch. And some of the people who have really come of age and gone out into the workforce during the Great resignation where they could just hippity hop hop hippity hop hop all over the market and get more and more money each time. And the first time that their boss kind of looked at him funny, they said, eff off I'm out of here. The times they are a changing