The Causey Consulting Podcast

⚠️ Crashing the Job Market ⚠️

October 04, 2022
The Causey Consulting Podcast
⚠️ Crashing the Job Market ⚠️
Show Notes Transcript

When CBS News reports that The Fed wants to crash the job market and INCREASE UNEMPLOYMENT, it's worth taking note.

"With an additional million or two people out of work, the newly unemployed and their families would sharply cut back on spending, while for most people who are still working, wage growth would flatline."

In other words: a lot of people will be unemployed and those who still have jobs will see their wages stagnate. IMO, you have a window of time to prepare for this reality and being naïve about it is not a great idea.

You can read the entire story here:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-interest-rate-hikes-unemployment-increase-layoffs-inflation/


Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

Hello, Hello, and thanks for tuning in. These all of a sudden get on the airwaves and have to warn people, messages are getting a little too frequent for my taste, I'll be glad when we can have some smooth sailing. Maybe when these powers that be quick trying to crash the freaking economy, that'd be nice. That'd be pleasant. If you have not been awake, if you have friends or family members that have not been awake and aware and staying coherent about the markets, I think this would be a really auspicious time to wake up and to help them wake up as well. Because in my opinion, the window of opportunity to get where you're going to get and be prepared to ride out the storm come what may, I think that window of opportunity is getting smaller and smaller. On September 30, there was an article published on CBS News, of course, I will drop a link to it, I want you to read it for yourself. Do not assume I'm making this up. And don't think that this is hyperbolic language. It's all here in black and white. The article is titled Buckle Up America, the Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment. This is not the time to be naive, standard boilerplate, I cannot give you advice, I cannot tell you what to do. Speaking solely for myself, this would not be a point in time where I'd want to get fired. This would not be a point in time where I would want to phone it in, do the bare minimum try to play on my cell phone for most of the day, and just hope I didn't get caught. Again, I can't I can't tell you what to do. And I don't want to get into this baileywick of quiet quitting. I think anytime we get on the airwaves, and we say yeah, this might not be really the best time to figure out how to do basically nothing and get paid for it. It's like you're opening yourself up for a firing squad, or at the very least to get rotten tomatoes thrown at you. I cannot tell you what to do. Speaking for myself, I wouldn't want to get caught phoning it in, I wouldn't want to be the surest person to get cut in a layoff situation, I'd want to plug in and figure out how to become integral to the operation. It's really not about being Suzy cream cheese, or, well, I'm always here on time, I always smile a lot at work, it's really more so about, I'm going to be the last person standing, they're going to need me a hell of a lot more than they don't need me. In my opinion, I would be trying to figure out the best way to do that for myself. because winter is coming. I predicted a long, hot summer followed by a winter of discontent. And I feel like if you are ignoring these types of stories where they are telling you, they are literally telling you ahead of time, what they're about to do. If you ignore that, and you assume well, I mean, a layoff would just never happened to me, or I'm just too cool for school, I can sit here and quiet quit and nobody really cares. And it's whatever. I would really, really be careful about that. So let's read from the CBS article now. In case the US economy wasn't hurting enough already, the Federal Reserve has a message for Americans, it's about to get much more painful. Crate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell made that amply clear last week when the central bank projected its benchmark rate hitting 4.4% By the end of the year, even if it causes a recession. All but in long enough to say I've not very my thesis, I think we're already in a recession. This hoopla about oh, a recession is coming. It might be on the way. Bs, let's get real. There will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions Powell said in his September 21 Economic Outlook, we will keep at it until we are confident the job is done. In plain English, that means unemployment. The Fed forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4% next year from 3.7%. Today, a number that implies an additional 1.2 million people losing their jobs. I wish there were a painless way to do that Powell said but there isn't in quote. Yeah. I've also not been shy in telling you I don't think unemployment is at any 3.7%. Okay, so if they're telling you that it's going to be 4.4% next year, what is it really going to be? I mean, seriously, can we double or triple that number in reality, probably 1.2 million people losing their jobs. Guys, it's easy to look at that as a statistic. It's kind of like the old cliche, it's a recession when the guy down the road loses his job. It's a depression when you lose yours. I would not be naive. If you are one of those 1.2 million people and God knows how many it'll really be okay. Let's let's let's be let's be clear. I don't think we're getting the full story here. If you're one of those people Will it's going to feel like a crisis to you, you're you're not going to be looking at it as a statistic. It's going to be very real in your life. I'll continue to read. The little bullet point here literally says hurts so good. Here's the idea behind why boosting the nation's unemployment could cool inflation. With an additional million or two people out of work, look at how they just Bandy that around like it's nothing. With an additional million or two people out of work, the newly unemployed and their families would sharply cut back on spending. While for most people who are still working wage growth would flatline when companies assume their labor costs are unlikely to rise, the theory goes, they will stop hiking prices, that in turn slows inflation in quote, just please take a few minutes here to digest that. An additional million or two people out of work well, they're not gonna be able to afford anything anymore, they're gonna have to cut back on spending sharply. Meanwhile, for those of you who are still working, your wage growth is gonna flatline let's don't mince any words here, you're gonna be broke. That's, that's what they're telling you. I'm not laughing because it's funny. I'm just laughing because it's bizarre. It's absurd to me that all this is going on. And it's criminal, in my opinion, that that it's been allowed to go this far the way that the middle class and the lower income classes are about to get absolutely steamrolled its criminal who's going to ever see a day in jail for it? Probably nobody. We we've been through that dog and pony show too. I'll continue to read. But some economists question whether crushing the job market is necessary to bring inflation to heal. The Fed clearly wants the labor market to weaken quite sharply. What What's not clear to us is why Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon macro economics said in a report, he predicted that inflation is set to plunge next year as supply chains normalize and quote, well, and they told you why. They told you why they want you to be broke. If you're not spending and the wages flatline people are not getting raises. See, that's part of what happened during the Great resignation as people job hopped all across the market, they continually asked for more money. Corporate America has not been shy in saying they want that to cease and desist. Remember that leaked Bank of America memo, they wanted power to go away from the average US worker and to go right on that to them. Do you think any of this is a coincidence? If you do, then, I guess you're in Pollyanna rainbows land, I don't really really know what to say to that. I'll continue to read. The Fed fears a so called wage price spiral in which workers demand ever higher pay to stay ahead of inflation and companies pass those higher wage costs on to consumers. But Experts disagree that wages are the main driver of today's red hot inflation. While worker pay has risen an average of 5.5%. Over the last year, it's been eclipsed by even higher price increases. At least half of today's inflation comes from supply chain issues and quote, yeah, but they're gonna blame it on you. Look at how many things have been blamed on workers working from home inflation, economic trouble, problems with the currency, the housing bubble problems and in banking and mortgage and real estate, yada, yada, blah, blah, blah. It's all going to be your fault. You dirty peon. You dirty pleb. You didn't want to go back to the office, you wanted to be at home, and I don't know, have some modicum of privacy, I guess. So everything wrong in the world is your fault. Oh, you also got greedy, in the face of inflation and trying to feed your family, you wanted to Job hop across the market and try to find better wages, shame on you should have just stayed but you should have sat down, shut up and down what you were told. And then everything would be sunshine and roses? Of course it would. Yeah, of course. When we start thinking about a million or two, and they just throw it out so cavalierly. A million or two people being unemployed, that's scary. I really, really feel that this is the tip of the iceberg. And I feel like this is yet another example of a tidbit of warning. You're gonna get these little tidbits of warning that are kind of like well, I mean, you had the opportunity to prepare. I mean, we told you unemployment was coming. We told you the Fed was gonna crash the economy. We told you the Fed was going to crash the labor market. I mean, why didn't you prepare? This would be a good opportunity. If you are going to plug in at a place, plant some roots stay there, or you're at a place that you feel like is tolerable. You feel like if this is great recession, global financial crisis 2.0 I can stay here for two or three years and make the most of it if you are in that situation. I think that you're already head and shoulders above people who are not I cannot tell you what to do. All I can say is that if it were me, I would want to really, really get a job loss survival plan put together. And if I were at a place that was tolerable, I would want to figure out how I could absolutely become integral to the operation there. It's not about doing what's best for corporate America, it's not about kissing your boss's behind. Okay, I understand. We're in the era of quiet quitting, I understand that people are burned out and frustrated. I know that there's a big battle royale going on between people that want to continue working remote and people, bosses and company owners that want you to come back and be buttoned seat for really no reason other than control and obedience, I understand that. I'm not setting any of those issues. In the garbage bin. What I'm saying is, let's put those issues temporarily to the side just long enough for you to rough out the job loss survival plan, just long enough for you to figure out in the event of a great recession 2.0 or something even worse than that. Let's not even contemplate that right now. I know that I could survive, I'm gonna hang on to this job. It may not be perfect. I may not love everything about it may not be my dream come true, but it will help me eat. It will help me to not get evicted. It will help me to continue making the car payment it will help to keep the kids in school clothes. I think these are things that we're going to have to ask ourselves. Unless you're some ultra wealthy elite individual with millions upon millions of dollars. I really think we're gonna have to get down to brass tacks and get very practical. In the meantime, please do not ignore these warning signs. When a mainstream media news article comes out and tells you the Fed wants to crash the labor market. They want unemployment to go up a million or two people are going to be jobless soon. I would not want to ignore that. In my opinion, naivete comes at way too high of a price right now. Stay safe, stay sane. I'll see you in the next episode.