Saturday Broadcast 28

 Key topics:

✔️ ICYMI news, 12/11 - 12/16.
✔️ Hybrid workers are the most loyal? What goofy пропаганда is this?
✔️Are remote opps dwindling away? Yep. And I have warned you this would happen for quite some time. 
✔️1 in 4 people who took out a govt backed mortgage in 2022 are now underwater? Holy crow!
✔️Lord Elon not paying rent and may back out on severance pay... Wow.


Links I mention in this episode:

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/stellantis-to-cut-jobs-idle-plant-5507444/

https://www.barrons.com/articles/economy-recession-interest-rates-fed-51670622600?siteid=yhoof2

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/impromptu-meetings-are-on-the-rise-6106386/

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/hybrid-workers-are-loyal-workers-6103618/

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/workers-starting-shelter-place-other-happenings-world-taylor-borden/

https://www.eenews.net/articles/attacks-on-grid-infrastructure-in-4-states-raise-alarm/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxS7gPvaJH0

https://tinyurl.com/ym9upw7p

https://news.yahoo.com/remote-jobs-disappearing-full-return-120040722.html

https://tinyurl.com/yzhx57mx

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/latest-layoffs-companies-making-cuts-6109906/

https://tinyurl.com/3k3dn962

https://tinyurl.com/bdemhcpb

https://www.yahoo.com/now/4-benefits-women-demand-workplaces-130100538.html

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/whos-least-worried-about-layoffs-6121714/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Siren courtesy of Pixabay. 

Transcript

0:07

Today it is Sunday, December 11. I wanted to hop on a little early because I saw a couple of headlines I wanted to talk about. One is on LinkedIn news and it's titled still Lantis to cut jobs idle plant, G parents to Lantis has announced it is idling its plant in Belvedere, Illinois and indefinitely laying off some 1350 workers in February. The carmaker blames a multitude of factors for the decision, but it cites the high cost of electrifying its fleet is the main reason a union chairman for hourly workers at the plant, which produces Jeep Cherokees tells Reuters that company documents show the carmaker actually plans to shift Cherokee production to Mexico, a steal antas spokeswoman would not comment and quote a couple of things here. One is I would be very, very careful about listening to any of these commentators who are starting to sort of shrug their shoulders and acquiesce a bit and say, oh, we'll Yeah, okay. We're going to have layoffs in 2023. But don't worry about it. It will only be real estate industry, folks. And it will only be big tech, Silicon Valley. If you're outside of that industry, or you're outside of those areas, you are going to be doing just fine. Probably going to be safe during a recession. I believe we're already seeing the ripple effects, the early ripple effects. These layoffs are already fanning out. They are not just big tech, they're not just Silicon Valley. And they're not just real estate related. I go back yet again to the old political slogan, it's the economy stupid. As we go further and further into this thing. naivete will come at too high of a price. Do not assume that you are in a bulletproof industry, and you're just going to be bobbing along. You don't have to think about what would happen. How do I get a job loss survival plan put together? Be very, very careful with that. Because there are more than a few media outlets that want to give you hot air and opium and telling you that everything's great and people are doing fine. By the time they actually tell you, Oh, things are a mess. Can you imagine how bad it will really actually be by that point in time. Meanwhile, over on Barron's, by way of Yahoo Finance, we find buckle up. It's going to be a hard landing. I think we can also sort of put this in our no Sherlock moment. The Federal Reserve's heavily telegraphed move to slow its pace of monetary policy tightening next week, risks sending a message to markets that the central bank is well on its way to reining in inflation, and guiding the economy to a soft landing, investors will do well to reevaluate regardless of the Feds pace of monetary policy tightening. The more consequential message the economy is sending now is that the central bank probably will have to raise interest rates beyond the roughly 5% range that markets are expecting in order to wrestle the current bout of inflation that closer to its target level. That in turn suggests that at least a mild recession looks increasingly necessary for prices to finally cool off. Yeah, a mild recession. Meanwhile, the freaking title is about buckling up because we're in for a hard landing. The funny thing is, when you look at the little snippet of this article on Yahoo Finance, there's some byline yet again, about wage growth, fueling inflation. And I'm like, Man, that's another dead horse that they're going to beat all the way to the end. Yes, this is happening. And it's your fault. How dare you try to find higher wages. We go back to the side panel for LinkedIn, we find impromptu meetings are on the rise. For all the CEOs out there who may be worried about their remote employees becoming less engaged. Turns out there may actually be nothing to lose sleep over remote meetings in 2022 have jumped by 60% Compared to 2020. According to new research, impromptu one on one calls were at 66% this year and increase from just 17% in 2020. So what's with the spike in worker spontaneity? Oh, I wonder. Remote interactions are shifting to more closely mirror in person interactions to make up for the loss in physical FaceTime says Harvard Business Review. virtual meetings also decreased in length by 25%. From 2020. End quote. Yeah, it you don't have to be a genius to figure this one out. In my opinion, this is again, all about control and it's all about surveillance. I want to have a touch base, I want to impromptu call you I want to make sure that you're sitting there and I want you on a video so that way I can observe how you're dressed, how you're behaving and what environment you're in. I want to be able to surveil you. So if I just ping you out of Nowhere, when you don't have much time to prepare for the call the video call, then I get to see what you're doing. And I get to verify that you're exactly where I want you to be. That's what it's really about. Because we also see that they've decreased in length by about 25%. So we're not talking about long, protracted meetings. And believe me, those are bad enough. But we're really just talking about his hey, let's have a touch in hey, let's have a check. Maybe it's just somebody that wants to verify that you are there but in seat toiling away. I guess if you had to go to the bathroom or something, and you weren't there when they impromptu pained you maybe you could get in trouble for that. Who knows. But to me, it's not taking into account that not everybody is an extrovert that wants that crap. Some people are more ambivert it some people are introverted. Also, some people have neurodiversity, and they want the opportunity to plan ahead. They want to know what is the agenda for the meeting? What is the format? And what will we be talking about, so that they feel more comfortable and they can function better in the meeting? Do these people care about that? No, no, no, no, in my experience, the people that want to have the touch base, and then check in and then all of a sudden, let's get let's have a cowpoke round up and get on Zoom or slack or teams or Skype. They want to do what they want to do. And they want to make sure that you are sitting there but in seat. I also think that part of this is kind of like the hybrid hell of half measures, we're going to make it really difficult for you to work a hybrid schedule so that you'll finally just acquiesce when we say RTO or it's your job. You know, hybrid is just getting too sloppy. It's getting too all over the place. It's too difficult and inconvenient. Let's just all come on back Monday through Friday. And let's just go and do it. Same thing with all of these pings and touch bases and check ins, if you're in a situation where, okay, I'm going to work from eight to five and then I'm going to leave the computer and I'm going to walk out I'm not going to be available after 5pm There are some people that would choose to go back rather than have all of these pings and touch bases and be on video all the time. The other thing is it's like okay, if I'm gonna have to be on video at any given moment. So I have to fix my hair. I have to put on makeup, I have to wear a collared shirt, whatever it is that you're going to do to prepare, then that also leads to an acquiescence. Well, hell, I'm already doing that. And I might as well go in. See, Sneaky, sneaky, but not really. Today, it is Monday, December 12. CNBC is just really on one today, if you ask me. We have headlines such as consumer see inflation easing considerably in the next year, according to a New York Fed survey. Right? Okay. Dow jumps 400 points, rebounding from worst week since September. How wonderful. Also, Supreme Court takes second case challenging Biden student loan relief. And then also we see here are relief options. If student loan forgiveness falls through for borrowers. You as I said before, what are you going to do if you had been planning on having access to that money? If that was going to change your life? If it was going to bail you out of some kind of financial mess and you were really excited to get it? In the event? That none of that comes to fruition? Have you developed a plan B? Have you figured out how you're going to handle it? If none of that occurs? Not trying to be cynical or negative? Just trying to put it out there? General common sense question Have you thought about what would happen if all of that goes up in flames? On the side panel for LinkedIn, we find holiday bonuses shelved at Ernst and Young. Is this the year of the Scrooge and essentially that's just an article to kind of in my opinion, shame people. If they're saying they're going to give out fewer gifts to fewer people it's the year that Scrooge get out there and spend spend spend bigger little consumer go into debt if you have to, but just get out there and get those dollars go in. Wealthy patients hoard diabetes drug hybrid workers are loyal workers. Wow, yeah, we're getting so close in my opinion, to Союз нерушимый республик свободных! How good and loyal you are, if you are a hybrid worker. Now, if you're fully remote, or for some reason, if you're fully RTO, and you're burn the hell out with it already. You're not as loyal. But if you're hybrid, if you're in the hell of half measures, well. You're the most loyal worker. Of course, we also find whether costs inflate utility bills. I want to talk about that in just a moment. I can't resist it, I have to click on this article, I wanted to call it something else, but I'm going to try to behave. Hybrid workers are loyal workers. As the remote work debate rages on New data shows, it could be worth it for employers to meet workers in the middle. About 70% of hybrid workers have a strong sense of company loyalty, according to a new Prudential survey, just 64% of in person employees and 59% of remote workers feel similarly, I'm going to butt in and say, All right, so in either scenario, we have more people, supposedly, who are hybrid, and then more people who are in person full time, saying that they have a strong sense of company loyalty, whereas remote workers get the lowest score. Hmm. Is that a coincidence? I don't think so. The reasoning, hybrid workers get the best of both worlds. Oh, I see. So now, even though earlier, we were told it was the worst of both worlds. And it was called a hell of half measures. Now we are being told the spin is in that hybrid workers get the best of both worlds, the flexibility to work from home along with the social interaction of the office, they're also happier with their compensation and benefits. Well, if that's true, I don't really believe that it's true. Who spoiler alert. I don't believe that. But if it is true once, let's just say for argument's sake, that that's the truth. It's probably because they're being rewarded. They're getting their puppy treat, for agreeing to go back. Okay, and tell me that sounds cynical. That's terrible. I shouldn't say that. But I'm just trying to be real with you. That's, that is how I see it. I also have predicted to you before that, I think this hell of half measures hybrid, eventually will just be used to shepherd everybody back into the office. I know what it's like when you're having to move livestock. And believe me, if you think that these corporate bankers and fat cats see you as anything less than chattel boy, boy, are you in for a surprise. When you are trying to move livestock, you have to make it make them think that wherever you want them to go, it was their idea anyway. Oh, I wanted to move from this paddock to the other paddock. I want to move from this pasture to that pasture. I wanted to come out of the pasture and go into the barn, you have to make them think that they wanted to move in that direction anyway, you get a lot farther, moving your animals by doing it that way instead of yelling and cussing and showing out and acting a fool. I really think that's where this is headed. You just need to go ahead and come on back. You know, this hybrid work is getting unwieldy. It's super inconvenient for everybody. Let's just go ahead and come on back. How could it be any other way? I just don't see it happening. Now we also on the work shift on LinkedIn find workers are starting to shelter in place and other happenings in the world of work which was published earlier today. This is another place where I will where I will happily say I told you so these people who were more than happy to get on the phone last year and talk about their options. They were gleefully participating in the great resignation. No, people are definitely starting to hunker down. They see what's going on, at least to some degree. Now the average John or Jane Q Public this just kind of scrolling and looking at headlines. Maybe they I hate to say it but they just automatically trust whatever they're told by the MSM. They don't they don't try to look around and go that makes literally no sense. They may still be caught by surprise when all of this poopoo hits the fan. But I think more people are starting to look around and say I don't think I want to make a leap right now. I think this might not be the best time to start changing jobs and get myself in a situation where I have no tenure at all. Under the heading workers are starting to shelter in place we find the number of US workers leaving their employers to start new jobs dropped by 22% in November compared to the year before according to LinkedIn latest state of the labor market. This suggests workers are starting to hunker down amid a murky economic outlook. This slowdown is mainly due to the cooling economy which is making it more difficult for workers to Job hop or quit their jobs without another already lined up. LinkedIn is head of economics and global labor markets. Rand Gaia PhD wrote, This is a 180 degree turn from last year when jobs switching was growing at 50% per year and quote, you don't have to be a PhD to know that. I've been warning you about this and trying to get the word out as best as I can. The great resident nation for white collar knowledge work is dunzo. And it has been for quite some time. If people hiring managers, whoever, if someone is only just now looking around and waking up to that reality, I feel sad. I really do because it's Ничего нового it is nothing new. It is not. Now, onward to something else that's very important that I want to talk about. But I'm not really seeing it when I'm when I'm going on CNBC, Yahoo, finance, LinkedIn, looking at things that are germane to sort of my pet places job market, labor market, what's going on with unemployment, et cetera. I'm not seeing anything about this. So I want to read this article that was on energy wire, and it's titled attacks on grid infrastructure in four states raise alarm, and it was published on December the ninth so we are talking about a recent article. shootings at two electric substations in North Carolina last weekend are among the numerous threats posed to us electric infrastructure since mid October, raising questions about whether such incidents are on the rise. Concerns grew further after Duke Energy reported gunfire near its watery hydro station in Ridgeway South Carolina on Wednesday, several days after gunshot severely damaged to substations. The company operates in Moore County, North Carolina. The incidents in the Carolinas followed attacks at six substations in Oregon and Washington in October and November. Local news outlets reported on those events this week. grid security experts say it's too early to tell whether the incidents were related or unusual in number, but said they showcase a need for the energy industry to be vigilant and prepared and quote, I would say honestly, it's not just the energy industry that needs to be vigilant and prepared. I think the average person does too. Do you have some kind of game plan roughed out? In a grid down situation? Now I'm not gonna get all apocalyptic on here. You guys already know. I don't do that. I don't tell you. We're all about to be in the Thunderdome. You got four days left, you've got one month I don't get into that crap. I'm not telling you that we're about to be Mad Max Road Warrior. All of society is about to collapse. We're all doomed. I don't get into that stuff. No, thank you. My point is for a few days, or maybe even a week or two. Do you have some kind of game plan of what you would do? If some yahoo, some wacko attacked a power station or damage the grid in some way. And you had to be without electricity for a period of time. Have you wargame that out? Have you thought about it? Do you have proper implements to be able to take care of yourself and your family? If you have animals? Do you have everything in place to be able to do that? We are talking about a cold winter Plus, there's going to be all these additional energy costs that inflate utility bills. Right now. There's some kind of warning out for a good portion of the country for like blizzards and winter storms. snow squalls. I would hate to even imagine what it would be like, if it's brutal cold, there's a blizzard. And then some psycho takes out the local power station and you have to be without electricity for a while in the midst of that. So I'm not telling you to panic. And I'm not telling you that I expect the Thunderdome I'm just saying, you know, if it were me, I can't tell you what to do. But if it were me, I would want to have some kind of game plan put together. Worst case scenario, we have to be without power for a couple of weeks. Are we going to be okay? How would we handle it? I'm telling you, in my opinion, if you think about these things ahead of time, so that you can sort of revert back to your training. Hey, we wargame this out, we have a plan. I feel like that's better than being totally blindsided and having a true oh sht moment. I also want to talk about a video that Scott Walters released. I think it was earlier today, maybe late yesterday, titled builders going belly up. And he shows several examples of Home Builders trying to lure people in. Here's 100k off, oh, we're gonna have a sale. We're gonna have it come on out and have hot dogs and balloons and see these new properties. Can you imagine? You know, last year when we were in the FOMO and the YOLO, and people were waving inspections, and you could sell anything, no matter how much of a piece of crap the property was. You could sell it last year. Can you imagine? Like what a difference a year makes. Now we're at the point where home builders are running sales and doing extravaganzas to try to get people to look at their stuff. I mean, that just feels unreal to me. In terms of what I am seeing here in the Midwest and properties that I would be interested in theory medically I'm talking about they fit my parameters, still seeing a lot of doodoo poop houses a lot of problem child houses. But it's it's starting to become an interesting comparison. Because the homes I'm seeing that are at a reasonable price. Like if you just look at the specs before you click on the ad, and you read anything about the property, foreclosures, distressed sales, people trying to hurry up and get the hell out because they're about to go bankrupt, that kind of thing is happening. Or you click on the ad and you find out it's not actually a brick and mortar home, it's a house trailer or some kind of modular thing. You click on it, and you find that it's falling in there selling it as is because no one has done any kind of cleaning, repairing and maintenance on the place in decades. So houses like that, that will like I've told you before someone trying to set out a burned out myth trailer on 10 acres and say I want half a mil for this place, and then some idiot doing it, we're starting to see the burned out meth trailer on 10 acres, it's coming down in price. Now they're not still trying to get half a mil for it. With that being said, properties that look like they're in any kind of decent condition at all. The homeowners want way too much money. They're not getting any takers. There are still places obviously being bought and sold to me whenever I look at sale pending or sale contingent on realtor.com is mostly places that are the small starter home with a small manageable postage stamp yard. Those places if they're priced somewhere within human reason, are still getting offers. But these places where somebody wants to set out, you know, a terrible burned out piece of crap house on some acreage and think that that is going to make them a millionaire. It's not happening. It No, I think that that day has gone. And we're seeing the same thing in the job market, all of the FOMO and the Yolo. And you could call anybody basically on the phone and have them consider a job opportunity. No, they're not doing that right now. By and large, they want to stay put, and figure out their next move. I think a lot of people to me during the holiday season, this part of q4 is notoriously a dead zone. It was out of the ordinary last year when it wasn't that was the anomaly. This year, people are hey, I want to focus on the holidays, I've already requested my PTO. I'm not trying to make a job change and be the last one hired. First one fired, I want to just see where this is getting ready to go. I feel like part of a good coherent job loss Survival Plan is thinking about it in advance, not just Okay, who am I first five phone calls and then 10 and then 15, and so on? Or what could I do next? Is there anything that I could do temporarily, you know, if I needed to bridge the gap between two different full time jobs, could I take something temporary just to keep money just to keep income coming in? Obviously, those are incredibly important things. But just considering all of this in advance, keeping your finger on the pulse of the economy, staying aware of what's happening in your local market, as well as what's happening in your industry. I've told the story before about a friend of mine who is in print journalism for a long time, he told me that he saw what was happening, he knew that his job was in danger. And he just buried his head in the sand because he didn't want to go through the hassle of finding something else. And when the paper closed down, he was on the job market at the same time as a lot of other journalists and it took him some real time and effort to get placed in another job. If at all possible, don't let that be you. If you can figure out a good strategy that makes sense in advance so that we can do adapt, improvise, overcome revert to training. In my opinion, you'll be better off than somebody who just has their head in the clouds and they're simply not paying attention. Today it is Wednesday, December 14. As you can probably guess most of the headlines are about the Fed today. on CNBC we find the Fed raises interest rates half a point to highest level in 15 years. The Fed projects raising rates as high as 5.1% Before ending inflation battle, I guess we'll see. s&p 500 snaps today winning streak after Fed raises rates and signals more hikes next year. Two year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates by half a point indicates more hikes. Senate Banking hearing to take aim at FTX and crypto industry, the largest Ponzi scheme in history. Do you think also new FTX ce o's getting paid $1,300 An hour and customers will foot the bill? Can you even imagine that? The DOJ and SEC charged social media influencers and a legit one $100 million stock pump and dump scheme. Mortgage demand inches higher as interest rates move lower. Oh, I don't really know about that over on MSN and there's an article by way of Fox Business titled as us home prices decline, number of buyers with underwater mortgages swells think I'm a little bit more inclined to believe that we'll read. An alarming number of new homeowners are discovering they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth as surging interest rates and housing prices spiraling down. About a quarter of a million Americans who took out a mortgage this year to buy a home are now underwater, meaning the home is worth less than the loan they took out on it. According to new data from Blacknight. Another 1 million have less than 10% equity. That's because the highest mortgage rates in decades combined with already steep home prices have made it one of the worst times in a generation for consumers to buy a new house. Though the home price correction has slowed. It has still exposed a meaningful pocket of equity risk, said Ben Grabowski the Black Knight data and analysts President Make no mistake negative equity continues to run far below historical averages. But a clear bifurcation of risk has emerged between mortgaged homes purchased relatively recently versus those who bought early in or before the pandemic. During the COVID 19 pandemic home prices soared at a pace not seen since the 1970s with mortgage rates near record lows, homebuyers, here we go. Oh my god are drumroll Blaze homebuyers flush with stimulus cash and eager for more space during the pandemic flocked to the suburbs. Demand was so strong and inventory was so low at the height of the market that some buyers waived home inspections and appraisals were paid hundreds of 1000s over asking price. What could possibly go wrong? Hmm. Wow. But painfully high inflation and rising borrowing costs have proven to be a lethal combination for the housing market, sapping consumer demand and sending home prices tumbling. In total about 8% of mortgages taken out this year underwater or roughly one in 12 homes bought in 2022. The situation is even worse for individuals with government backed mortgages according to Blacknight. About 25% of those buyers this year, are now underwater. Holy crap. Does that not scare you? One in four of those buyers are underwater already. Wow. This is an illustrative and unfortunately potentially vulnerable cohort that we will continue to keep a close eye on in the months ahead. grabowsky said the problem could get worse before it begins to improve. No sht Sherlock. Some experts see prices falling as much as 20% Over the next year as a result of higher mortgage rates. a confluence of data released last month showed that the housing market is already rapidly deteriorating. Sales of existing homes tumbled in October for the ninth straight month. homebuilder sentiment fell to the lowest levels since 2012. And November, and investor home purchases plunged 30% Many experts agree the housing market will worsen as the Federal Reserve tightens policy at the fastest pace in three decades in order to crush runaway inflation. Policymakers have voted to approve six consecutive interest rate increases this year, including four consecutive 75 basis point hikes in June, July, September November. The average rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage fell to 6.33%. This week, according to the latest data released last week for mortgage lender, Freddie Mac. This is significantly higher than just one year ago when rates stood at three point 10%. Although it's down from a peak of 7.08%. Yeah, it's funny because earlier this week, I had a broker call me and leave a voicemail saying hey, you know the rates are going down wanted to talk to you see if you're still looking and I'm just like, No, not right now. I am glad. Believe me, I never thought I would say this as many places as I went and looked at and tried to crunch the numbers and make it work. I never thought I would say this, but I am so glad that I didn't find something. I mean, if I had found it, and it had been affordable at like a two and a half 3% interest rate that would have been awesome. But I didn't. And I am very, very, very glad, very relieved that I did not get obligated for some poop house in a bad area. You have told you before that in keeping an eye on the market. Some of the places that people bought not that long ago are already back up for sale, some of them without even having made any improvements at all. So here's the deal, as we look at what's going on in the housing market, and then we also look at what's going on in the job market. How much run For will it get, as the Fed continues these interest rate hikes when the job market really, truly does get in the dumper, all the way and we have high unemployment, people are getting laid off, they can't afford their mortgages, even if they could legitimately afford it when they bought it. If everybody in the house of working age is laid off, and there's no money coming in, what then? Well, for one thing, all of these investors and large global conglomerates will swoop up on the land. In the houses, that's, that's not going to be a surprise. I don't think to anybody, they'll take full advantage of it, believe me. But those people are going to be out on the street, they'll get foreclosed on and have no other place to go. This is going to get bad in my opinion. I'm not trying to give you a bunch of doom and gloom and be a Debbie Downer. I'm just telling you, I remember what it was like during the great recession. And here we go again. Here we go. Again, only I think at this point, aside from just the housing bubble, we have so many bubbles. You know people have kind of called this an omni bubble or an everything bubble and when it when it all pops, man, are we going to have a mess? LinkedIn has added to its post about latest layoffs at companies. So let's go through. Let's look at the updated list thus far for December. The Washington Post thumbtack crypto tax software provider tax bit. tech giant Cisco, Utah based software company Pluralsight software development company airtable G parents Atlantis meal delivery company Blue Apron, Fintech startup plaid. CEO of FinTech company stash, wrote in a statement, it is cutting 8% of its workforce after carefully watching market conditions. Adobe Gamestop BuzzFeed Morgan Stanley, PepsiCo shipping insurance company route wireless services provider wireless advocates. Now they're shutting down operations according to a LinkedIn post from its Northeast Regional Director so they don't apparently banking giant Wells Fargo, CNN Gannett, The Washington Post, Bloom tech and online coding boot camp and customer management startup podium. But remember those economists that told us there will be no mass layoffs in q4. Pay attention, keep your head on a swivel, please. Today it is Thursday, December 15. It's crazy to think that we're about 10 days out from Christmas. And the month of December is halfway over. This is always the point where everything just happens at a supersonic speed. It's like you blink and your blissful holiday break is over with so please enjoy it. I think we're all due for it this year. on Yahoo Finance we find stocks plunge after Central Bank's hikes weak retail data rattles market so US stocks tumbled Thursday as Wall Street reeled from another sizable rate hike by the Federal Reserve officials and assessed similar moves by policymakers across the Atlantic. In a related article, retail stocks smoked as markets tank after retail sales miss. I'll be publishing a blog post tomorrow morning about this because there were all these headlines. Supposedly Black Friday was great. They were still in this narrative. People are doing great, even though a lot of people who did go shop not that there were a lot of people who did have the people who did a lot of them admitted that they were using credit cards and buy now pay later. There were people on YouTube going to stores to film and normally you wouldn't have been able to squeeze another human in the store on Black Friday and it was like crickets and tumbleweeds. But yet supposedly Black Friday and Cyber Monday Oh, what a dream come true. People were just buying and buying and buying. But now see, we're being allowed to know that retail stocks are not really doing so great. If you think that this won't happen with the job market at some point down the road, in my mind, you're crazy. I think this is exactly the way that they will spin it they will keep telling you they're gonna hump this along a little bit more people are doing great flush with cash, labor shortage. People are living in grandma's basement to open jobs for everyone unemployed person blah, blah, blah. And then finally one day the MSM is going to be willing to tell you Oh, oops. Unemployment is going up. Turns out that labor market ain't so blazing hot anymore guys. As if we couldn't see this coming. Netflix stock sync on reported ad target miss in other words, apparently their ad tear didn't go so well. I kind of predicted that too with Disney plus and Netflix like if that comes down to you eat or you don't eat, you have something for your child or you don't, you're not going to pay for a lower level subscription just to watch a bunch of commercials. And some of those commercials like on the streaming platforms are so freakin repetitive. It's like you just see the same commercials over and over and over again like psychological torture. It's not anything that's of interest to me. Big tech layoffs has Silicon Valley lost its mojo. Hmm. I wonder I wonder city offers staff remote working conditions for the last two weeks of 2022. Ah, here's another possibility shaping up, we will allow you to work from home during the holiday season. Now this could also be used as an opportunity, let's say for corporate America to not give you as much time off during the holiday season. But we're going to allow you for the week of Thanksgiving and Black Friday and for the last two weeks of the year around Christmas and New Year's we will allow you to take the laptop and work from home and in return, we really want your butt in that seat every hour of every day. Good luck if you had scheduled PTO. I just feel like there's always a catch. There's always something sneaky lurking in the background. Like if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Over on msn.com by way of NBC News we find why the Fed is taking a sledgehammer to the housing market. Oh, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and members of his Federal Reserve Board might not be cruel and heartless people. But they are in the process of killing the American dream of homeownership for millions of families. As the central bank continues to aggressively raise interest rates in his battle to get inflation under control. The housing market is collateral damage. You know what the job markets gonna be that way too. Sorry, prisoner of war sorry, collateral damage. Sadly, it didn't have to be this way. After the Fed raised its benchmark rate on Wednesday for the seventh time this year, it's likely the dynamic will only get worse for every percentage point increase in mortgage rates, the number of households who can afford a $400,000 mortgage declines by three to 4 million. According to Freddie Mac, the federally sponsored enterprise that promotes home lending. Freddie Mac estimates that 15 million potential homebuyers have been priced out of the housing market this year because for the first time in US history, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage has more than doubled in a year's time, from about 3% to more than 6%. As mortgage rates are rising faster, much faster than home prices will drop. Americans who who do still buy new homes will be digging deeper into their wallets, adding to the financial stress of high inflation. Yeah, and potential layoff and potential job loss. Please, please do not forget to factor that into your decision making full disclosure. What do I always say, I'm not an economist, I don't sit on the web. I'm not a professional credit counselor, financial planner or advisor, real estate agent, broker, a cat and a hat and a bat with a baseball. I'm not any of those things. I can't tell you what to do. All I can say opining for your entertainment only about the job market is that it's not just the financial stress of high inflation, which is which that is bad enough. You really, really really, really, really, in my opinion, want to wargame out your strategy of a job loss. And if you have multiple people in the household who are working, and the ability to keep the household afloat is really predicated on all those people having jobs. I would honestly go for the worst case scenario of what if both of us or all of us, whatever your living situation may be. What if we're all unemployed at about the same time, then what do you want to be on the hook for some doo doo poop overpriced house. Oh, and by the way with a higher interest rate. That is a scary proposition. And more financial pressure may be in the pipeline for the growing number of buyers who are now opting for adjustable rate mortgages. All right, we saw that before didn't we go back to 2008 2009 if you want to see how that movie ends. Such mortgages make their payments lower in the short term, but they can easily adjust upward often by 2% or more several years down the road, making monthly installments intolerably expensive. These financial pressures are coming after the COVID 19 relief programs federal moratorium on foreclosures ended in July 2021. Since then, foreclosure filings have been ballooning up 57% In November compared to the same month last year, though, for now, they are nowhere near levels hit during the housing crash of 2000 800. Really? Well, that's probably because we're not far enough in to the collapse of the everything bubble. Okay, gloom and doom or Debbie the downer? Oh, you sound awful. I can't believe you're out here saying that. Well believe it. Because in my opinion, we are in these Omni bubble situations. And as they start to pop up, I'm imagining like in the cartoons, you know, and somebody would have a needle in a bouquet of balloons pop up. That's what I think is going to happen. Oh, there goes the housing market. Oh, there goes the job market. It it will get worse before it gets better, I think. So please, please, please, please be careful of any media outlet telling you Oh, yeah, the craps hitting the fan. And it's looking pretty bad. But it's nowhere near as bad as it was, in a way and we're right. Already the housing market, which accounts for nearly 18% of the US economy, please keep that in mind. nearly 18% of the US economy is in a serious recession. Oh, wow. So now we're allowed to know, for a very prominent mainstream media outlet that the housing market is in a serious recession. Oh, well, that escalated quickly if you weren't paying attention. Probably feels like you just got slapped upside the head with a brick if you hadn't been listening to commentators who actually know what the hell they're talking about. With home sales, sinking and prices beginning to fall. With inflation now running at an annual rate of 7.1%. As measured by November's Consumer Price Index, the Fed is trying to slow it through a process that economists call demand destruction. By raising interest rates, the central bank makes it more expensive to borrow and spend. As the most interest sensitive sector of the economy housing gets slammed. That may very well be the case. But believe me, the job market will be slammed as well. As the CEOs and the power brokers and the heads of these companies begin to scale back. Trust me, the interest rate and all of these interest rate hikes are going to affect them too. And it will play into their decision making. It's not just prospective homebuyers who are suffering the consequences of sharply higher mortgage rates, homeowners are finding they can't sell their homes for what they were worth just a few months ago. This is particularly troublesome for couples approaching retirement such as neighbors of mine who are looking to downsize three months ago a home very comparable to their sold in our neighborhood for the impressive price of more than $1.3 million. But the couple recognize that they are now selling into a declining market, so they listed their home for just under one mil. It's as if a chunk of their nest egg has suddenly been snatched from underneath them. Sadly, had the Federal Reserve been more vigilant on its inflation watch much of this pain could have been avoided. The feds mandate is to maintain price stability while attempting to maximize employment. And among its primary tools is the Fed funds rate. It's the cost of borrowing for banks. They of course pass that cost on to their customers while also tying their mortgage rates to Treasury bond yields, which have shot up this year, reflecting rising inflation expectations. Wednesday's rate increase caps the most intensive year of central bank inflation fighting since 1981. When interest rates soar to double digits and a similar campaign led by Paul Volcker, the Fed chair who slayed that bout of inflation, but in the process pushed the economy into a severe double dip recession. You know, I have said I would not at all be surprised if we wind up in some hellscape where it's like what if the 1982 recession had a baby with the 2008 Great Recession slash global financial crisis? I think that's a very, very possible. I hope I am wrong on that. I hope we don't see that come to pass. But in reading the tea leaves in my opinion, it is a very real possibility. In the first half of last year, inflation was accelerating rapidly increasing many times over. By June the CPI was clocking in at an annual rate of 5.4%. Yet Powell argued the pickup in inflation was transitory. Didn't we hear that over and over again? It's transitory it's abating everybody gonna be all right. Sure. And where are we at now? So Powell and his fed governors hung on to their new policy introduced in 2020 that permitted inflation to run above the Feds traditional target of 2%. The Fed at the time was far more concerned with pumping up an economy battered by COVID than preventing a pickup in inflation. In fact, the central bank was injecting 10s of billions of dollars into the financial system every month to grease the economy's wheels. Hmm. You know, I did write an art I recall I think I may have even published a blog post about a podcast episode, the having a brain fart there about are we in a pump and dump economy? Because it seems that way let's pump all this stuff up artificially and then allow it to dump so that the fat cats and our cronies can come and pick everything up that they want on the cheap. Seems that way I don't know. As it turns out, the central bank was helping to fuel the inflation it was supposed to be preventing. Imagine that I mean, when you just print up fiat currency willy nilly, you shut the whole freakin economy down. And then you start printing up fiat currency that's not backed by anything willy nilly, and you start handing it out. And as long as there's all of this cash and whatever, I mean, duh, it's going to cause inflation. You don't have to be some classically trained and Ivy League educated economist to connect the dots on that one. The feds foot was pressing on the economic accelerator far too long is it persisted in extraordinary efforts to prevent the country from falling into a pandemic induced recession and it failed to hit the brakes in the summer of 2021. When inflation began to accelerate, a humbled Powell would later concede it was time to retire his description of inflation is transitory and admitted. I think we understand better how little we understand about inflation. Oh, God, you can't make this stuff up. Now, the Fed is trying to compensate for its mistakes by raising interest rates at the fastest pace and for decades. As the housing market slumps, the Federal Reserve is fighting a battle not only to curb inflation, but to restore its reputation as an inflation fighter. Good luck with that. Sadly, this is a necessary evil, because our country's economic stability requires that we keep inflation under control, and that's the Feds job. But if the nation's central bankers had more foresight, it would not be so hard today for millions of people to achieve homeownership and to secure retirement and quote, I mean, at least I will, I will, I will give credit where it's due, at least they're pointing a finger of blame at the Fed. At least this article is not out here saying it is the average working class Americans fault. The average working class person screwed up and now we're in this mess. So I give them props for pointing a finger of blame at the Fed. But here we go. A humble Powell would later admit I think we understand better how little we understand about inflation. I've predicted that too. I have told you we could very well see oops, a daisy, you know, they're going to stand back and act like oh, we just had no idea that this was going to happen. It was unprecedented. We just never been through anything like this before with a global pandemic and just oh my god. Wow, just oops, our bad. Meanwhile, your whole freakin life is destroyed. Please, please don't be caught off guard. Also on MSN this time by way of Radar Online, we find Elon Musk stops paying rent at Twitter's San Francisco headquarters considering not providing severance pay to fired employees. Oh, the hits keep coming with this joker, don't they? Wow. I sort of liken this to the student loan forgiveness debacle as well as some of the pension funds around the country that are starting to run dry. What is your plan B? I love how the preppers like to say three is two. Two is one. One is none. What is your game plan in the event that you go through a layoff? And hoops a daisy just like the Fed oops are basically your severance check isn't there and it's not coming? What if student loan forgiveness never makes it through the court system? What if it gets struck down? And oops a daisy? It's just not going to happen for you. There are so many different possibilities including Oopsy daisy, what if the pension runs dry? What if you don't get a check for a few months? Do you have a game plan put together of how you would survive that? I'm just saying. Elon Musk is refusing to pay rent at Twitter's California headquarters as well as the company's numerous other offices around the world Radar Online has learned the shocking revelation came on Tuesday. The same day the 51 year old billionaire and newfound Twitter CEO lost his position as the richest person in the world to Louis Vuitton Group chief Bernard Arnault. Interesting. according to Daily Mail sources claim Musk hasn't paid rent at the company San Francisco headquarters and other offices and weeks and the business mogul is attempting to renegotiate the terms of Twitter's lease with the building's owner. Musk is also considering paying severance packages to those Twitter employees recently axed by the Tesla and knowing him and he's reconsidering Musk is also reconsidering paying severance packages to those two Your employees recently asked by the Tesla and SpaceX founder in an effort to slash costs around the social media company. Well, God that's so mercenary. Hey, we were gonna give you a severance package. But now in an effort to slash costs around the social media company, forget to damn guys wow. Musk initially vowed to provide two months of pay and one month of severance to United States employees let go from Twitter during his $44 billion acquisition of the company in October. Rather than paying his former employees their previously promised severance pay. Musk is instead reportedly weighing whether to pay for the lawsuits. Oh, my God, whether to pay for the lawsuits that would inevitably come should he choose not to provide the severance package? God, man that's raw, isn't it? Okay, let's do a little cost benefit analysis here. Would it be cheaper for me to just go ahead and pay the lawsuits? Or would it be cheaper for me to pay the severance I promise to pay. Other drastic cost cutting measures Musk has taken since taking over Twitter include refusing to pay for travel expenses taken by his employees prior to his acquisition of the company including one travel expense totaling more than $197,000. In fairness, silly argument what in the hell kind of travel bill is almost 200? Grand? I don't know the circumstances boss, your dad, Charlie nine. No, I have not ever in my life been on a$200,000 travel expense. So that does sound a little suspicious to me. But let's say that Joe Blow for the company has $500 and expenses that would have been approved and then now they're not going to be simply because Lauren Elon wasn't the one who signed off on it. Joe Blow took the trip, or log the expenses before Elon bought the company. Now he's just out that money. That would suck I mean, especially if you're living paycheck to paycheck. He has also refused to pay out millions of dollars to former Twitter executives who were fired, but they have it as a typo. It says fried who were fried from the company. That's awesome. Let's get a better in some ways, arguing that the executives were fired for cause and therefore do not qualify for the millions they are allegedly owed. These cost cutting measures all come as Musk continues to crack down on his remaining Twitter employees threatening to file lawsuits if the employees act in a manner contrary to the company's interest. If you clearly and deliberately violate the NDA that you signed when joining Twitter, you accept liability to the full extent of the law and Twitter will immediately seek damages. Musk wrote in a recently leaked email to his employees this week. As Radar Online previously reported Musk has already dissolved a number of councils overseeing core aspects of the social media platform, including the company's 100 member Trust and Safety Council, which was disbanded on Monday. Musk has also begun auctioning off items from Twitter's San Francisco headquarters and a seemingly desperate move to recoup even more money. The items being auctioned off including kitchen supplies, a massive Twitter bird statue, and a $17,000 pan and a$20,000 espresso machine. Holy cannoli news, you can't make this stuff up. You can't make it up. You know, I have also not ever owned a $17,000 pan nor a$20,000 espresso machine. I can't even imagine so yes. To me. It sounds like there have been there's been some waste. There's it sounds like there's economically been some fat that needed to be trimmed. I can't justify a $20,000 espresso machine for for the life of me, that's crazy. But telling people you're gonna give them severance pay and then trying to renege and figuring out is just going to be cheaper to pay the attorneys and leave these people high and dry. That sucks. I mean, you know, this dude has money. You know, he does Okay, so he's not the richest person in the world anymore because the Louis Vuitton head honcho took that title from him. It's not like he's broke. Are you going to see Lord Elon panhandling on the side of the road will work for food? Oh, shit. No. I tried to keep a G rated and not you know, use foul language on here. But come on, come Oh, man. No, he's not gonna be on the side of the road panhandling for money, or begging you to go buy him a burger at McDonald's because he just doesn't have anything to eat. The guy is loaded. So I find it very hard to believe that he can't afford to pay the rent. He has to have a fire sale of these items just to keep the company going. I feel like this is sending more of a message. And it's a big middle finger in the air. If you ask me. That's like he's trying to renegotiate rent. So it's like, well, if you just won't pay. He's trying to send a message to the employees in my opinion of it's my way or the highway. I'll sell your toy I'll get rid of the fancy espresso machine. I will threatened to not pay severance to the people I've already promised to pay severance to. Because this is my world now. I'm the one running the show. You know, I've said before, I think a lot of the CEOs and managers who just fanboy out about Elon Musk are doing so because they're jealous. They would love to have that kind of money and that kind of power and to be able to just lay the law down. In reality, that's how they want to be able to treat their employees. Keep your head on a swivel. It's all I can tell you. Stay alert and stay aware. Today it is Friday, December 16. on CNBC, we have headlines such as dow closes more than 200 points lower falls for a second straight week as recession fears grow. Ford again hikes the starting price of the F 150 Lightning pickup now up 40% since launch, I guess it's gonna get to the point where you have to be ultra wealthy to have a Ford F 150. Lightning pickup. Former FTX spokesman Kevin O'Leary defense endorsement of bank man Fried's crypto firm, I guess at this point, what else is he going to do? Goldman Sachs is planning to cut up to 8% of its employees in January. Eu threatens Elon Musk with sanctions after Twitter's suspension of journalists and it has this really like weird creepy looking photo of him scowling Bitcoin dips below 17,000. markets close out the week lower as investors brace themselves for more rate hikes next year. Yeah, I think we're in for a tough time of it. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find stocks synced to cap another week of losses after more bad news on the economy. Tesla stock is in the midst of its worst ever drawdown accounting firm Mazars drops all crypto clients again, can we really be surprised by that? I don't think so. History says fed can't meet its goal without a recession. See how the narrative is changing? Remember before the technical definition of a recession was one thing, but not really. There was all that linguistic gymnastics that we beheld trying to keep john and jane Q Public from knowing that we've been in a recession already this year. Now we're edging a little bit closer to the truth. The History says fed can't meet its goal without a recession. So I guess now as well, I mean, hey, a recession is inevitable, you're just going to have to suck it up and get through it. Organized retail crime has a few sad side effects. So that sounds terrible. Also, in another example of the narrative getting shifted just a little bit farther. 15 years ago, the housing market crashed under similar circumstances. Um, yeah. It's like the old routine from the 40s Voss your dad Charlie? Yeah. Of us. And I remember it. If you've already seen this movie before, then you know exactly how it plays out. And it's not any surprise to you. They ain't seen nothing yet. President Biden has accused oil companies of war profiteering and has threatened them. Oh, but the byline classic maneuver is or is it just hot air question mark? Yeah. It's hot air. Look into crony capitalism. Okay. I heard someone once say I'm going to try to paraphrase as best I can. It was something like one form of fascism is when the government owns all of the corporations but another form of fascism is when the corporation's own the government. You talk ish though, six and one half a dozen the other if you ask me. Also on Yahoo today, drumroll please. Well, selfless plug for for for the old self shameless plug, I guess I should say. Four benefits women should demand from their workplaces. Yours truly was interviewed for this article. And nothing that I say is probably going to be a surprise to you. You've already heard it from me before, but one of the things I thought was awesome they covered in this article. Under the heading flexible work options we find. The McKinsey report found that women employees who can choose to work in the arrangement they prefer with a remote or on site are less burnout, happier in their jobs and much less likely to consider leaving companies. It also found that having the option to work remotely is important to most women as only one in 10 Women wants to work mostly on site. No duh. I've been telling you, I'm on the frontlines of this every flipping day and I have been telling you, these people that I talked to, they're not clamoring for RTO and it doesn't matter about gender, and it doesn't matter about age range. So whether you see hot air and hopium in my opinion, about oh, it's baby boomers or Gen X or The oldies want to go back to the office or Well, no, it's the younguns. The Gen Z kids, they've never really been in the office. They don't know what they're missing. They want to go and high five and say for real, for real and on God, whatever in the office. No, no, I am not finding anyone clamoring for RTO not a single soul. So this statistic that only one in 10 Women wants to work mostly on site. Notice they didn't even say totally on site, mostly on site. That doesn't surprise me at all. Now, my portion of the interview was, women should absolutely seek out remote or flexible work arrangements, said Sara Causey bump bump. So often women are still disproportionately responsible for childcare, eldercare, household maintenance, etc. Plus, with inflation, the cost of care outside the home has skyrocketed. What a hiring manager might verbally agree to in an interview setting can be changed later, once the employee has actually started work. It provides a better hedge of protection to have work from home or flexible scheduling put in writing in an employment contract and or formal offer letter. As I've told you before, that's not an ironclad guarantee, but at least it's a better hedge of protection. As lawyers like to say verbal agreements are typically worth the paper they're printed on, which is not at all. So again, I think you at least have a fighting chance if you can get something put in writing, not an ironclad guarantee, talk to an attorney if you need more insight on that. But I think it helps if nothing else, it helps and it leaves a paper trail. On LinkedIn news today, there was an article titled who's least worried about layoffs, and that we find nearly a third of US workers are worried that their bosses might be planning budget cuts and or layoffs in the near future. I'm going to butt in and say that's nowhere near enough. 31% of people are worried that their bosses might be planning budget cuts and or layoffs. You know, guys, that's why I say, I'm not recording these broadcasts anymore to try to wake anybody up. I'm really doing it for those of us who are already aware that there's a poop storm coming. We're already in some of it. But I don't think we're anywhere near the brunt of it not yet. You know, said before, I think we transitioned from everybody's kind of getting the theater ready to dress rehearsals to opening act. But we're not in the main play the main act just yet. Oh, no, not yet. The opening? Yes, the curtain has come up, the actors are starting to mill around, but we don't know quite how the plot is going to play out. And so in my mind only 1/3. I almost don't even know what to say. Other than yes, I'm only making these broadcasts. Now, for those of us who know what's going on, if you want to share any of these broadcasts, or any of the blog posts or interviews that I do, to try to help somebody please do. At least you can say I tried, I did something to try to help a friend or family member who has their head buried firmly in the sand, but they may not wake up. I've talked before about who's coming to help you who's going to rescue you. I've also talked before about some people are not going to make it. And I know that sounds harsh and it sounds terrible. But like, at what point if somebody is so content for bread and circus that they want to just play on social media, and mindlessly scroll on a cell phone or a tablet, and they just don't care. There's only so much that you can really do with that you can't force somebody to wake up. I'll continue to read. But those concerns are far less prevalent in some sectors among those least worried about cuts or legal workers, followed by those in administrative roles, military and Protective Services, Community and Social Services and accounting. At the other end of the spectrum jitters are especially high for people working in product management, quality assurance and marketing and quote, I will tell you recently, I had a client that was asking me about a particular company that had had layoffs. And whenever I went and did some research to find out who they cut, the only people I found that were laid off were sales and marketing and quality assurance people. Now that's not to say that these individuals they call out they're claiming they're the least worried or the ones that should be the least worried. There are some industries that are very insulated from inflation, and some industries that really and truly do still have a shortage of people not not the propaganda, the propaganda that we're told all the time, labor shortage, labor shortage, not like that. I'm talking about health care, for example. I mean, you can go in a hospital or go in a clinic and visibly see from the outcome that they're short staffed. But no, I wouldn't sit back and say well, because I'm in accounting or because I'm in community services because I'm a paralegal I immune new No, no, no, I don't think with what's brewing up that anybody can really sit back and be arrogant or haughty and say, well, it'll just never happen to me. It's like the old expression. It's a recession when the guy down the road gets laid off, but it's a depression when you are the one that gets laid off. Don't be caught flat footed on this. Don't get blindsided. Don't be surprised. Stay safe, stay sane. Stay informed. And I will see you in the next episode.