Into the Cold: A Journey Through the 2024 Housing Market | 1-Minute Market Update w/ Martin Perdomo

Are you ready to navigate the chill winds of 2024's real estate market? This episode is your compass and parka, packed with the latest stats and forecasts about mortgage applications, home sales, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Could the gloomy prediction of a 'cold' housing market actually be a golden opportunity for buyers? Let's explore.

We dive deep into the heart of recent data, revealing a surprising 4% rise in mortgage applications, a drop in Google searches for homes, and an increase in median home sales prices. Amidst these changes, almost 35% of homes snatch up an accepted offer within two weeks of listing - a clear sign of a transforming market. Finally, we'll discuss the Federal Reserve's decision against raising interest rates and what this could mean for the housing market in 2024. Tune in for these insights and more - your future home could be just a listen away.

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:01

3, 2, 1, market update. Mortgage demand jumps to a six-week high as interest rates continue to drop. Find out more in this week's weekly real estate market update in under one minute. Find out more in this week's real estate market update. But before that, here's this week's housing market data. Mortgage purchase applications are up 4% from a week earlier and down 20% from a year earlier.

Speaker 1: 0:34

Google searches for homes for sale is down 11% from a month earlier and down 7% from a year earlier. Median home sales prices was $367,750, up 4.6% from a year earlier. The median asking price for a newly listed home was $377,009, up 6.3% from a year earlier the biggest increase in year over year. This is really surprising data. Again, remember that this is nationwide and real estate is market to market related, so pay attention to what's happening in your market. This is the nationwide data. According to Redfin, the monthly mortgage payments on the median asking price was $2616 per month at a 7.29%, which was the mortgage average mortgage rate for last week. Pending home sales were down 8% year over year, so that makes sense. As buyers are gone, there's a scarcity of buyers right now in the marketplace. New listings of homes for sales are up 5.2% year over year, the biggest uptick in over two years. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last year. Active listings dropped 7.3% from a year earlier, the smallest decline since June, near the highest level since the start of 2023. 34.8% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market and homes that sold were on the market for a median of 34 days, and 27.9% of homes sold above their final list price. So we're seeing a deep freeze as buyer demand we are, as you're going to see in the next article, that buyer demand ticked up a little bit as interest rates came down. The 10 year treasury softened a little bit. The feds decided not to raise interest rates last week in their November meeting, which is a good thing. They did not raise the interest rate. So that's all good news.

Speaker 1: 2:55

But I think next year, as it pertains to real estate, it's going to be a cold year. It's going to be winter in the marketplace. I believe that we're going to see some real pain and we're going to see some real heavy deflation and values. We're going to see the values start to deflate big time next year, which means opportunities If you're in the market to buy a property. That means there's going to be a tremendous amount of opportunities in the marketplace for you to pick up a property, whether it's multi-family, single-family, whatever it is that you're trying to do just a home for you and your family. There will be opportunities next year, in 2024. Kind of excited for that, getting ready for that and let's see what happens.

Speaker 1: 3:38

So, and reported by the CNBC, okay, mortgage demand is finally crawling out of the basement as interest rates continue to move lower. Total application volumes increased 3% last week from the previous week, according to the mortgage bankers association seasonally adjusted index. Us bond yields continue to move lower as income data signed, a softer economy and more signs of cooling inflation. Most mortgage rates in our survey decreased with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. As I mentioned earlier, mortgage rates are starting to cool off, decreasing to the lowest rate in two months, said Joel Ken, MBA's deputy chief economist. Mortgage applications increase to their highest level in six weeks but remain at very low level. So this just shows you right. Because inventory is so low. The minute the consumer starts to see a break in interest rates, the consumer, the buyer, goes out to the market immediately.

Speaker 1: 4:40

However, the the feds did say they're very hawkish, that that rates are going to stay at this rate. They're projecting in 2024. Listen to what the Fed, jay Powell. I saw the interview, heard the interview, heard his speech not the interview, but his speech that he was addressing the. He was addressing the media. He said next year, 2024, expect the Fed fund rate to go down to 5.1. Right now it's between five and a quarter to five and a half expected to go down to 5.1, and in 2024. So that's still kind of high. But in 2025, you ready guys, and I quote him he expects the rates to be the Fed fund rate to go down to 3.9%, which means we're going to go back to some low rates again in 2025. So we have a saying in the space that says survive till 2025. And that's what we plan to do.

Speaker 1: 5:36

So while mortgage demand is moving slightly higher off historic lows, the housing market is still extremely weak. October sales of existing homes dropped to the lowest level in 13 years. According to the new report from the National Association of Realtors, mortgage rates move slightly lower this week, but analysts are not expecting any major moves in the near future. The market has clearly shifted gears into holiday mode, with light, volume and liquidity, greasing the skids for random volatility, volatility without any fundamental jurisdictions, wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of the market news daily. And this has been Okay, pal. This is part two, which is just to take two. This is just my thoughts. Three, two, one. So, as I said earlier, morgan Zeman is starting to come up, but we'll have to wait and see what happens.

Speaker 1: 6:36

I think that for the rest of this year, we're not gonna see a lot of action. Historically, this is the season that real estate sales slowed down, so don't think we're gonna see much of anything here over the next month and the month of December, and I don't think in January. And, like I said a moment ago, I think that next year is gonna be a tough year for real estate. However, this is where millions are made. This is where opportunities are bought. This is where sale happened. This is where things go on sale and you can buy things on a discount. I believe next year will be that. I'm excited for that.

Speaker 1: 7:14

I'm on both sides of the fence because currently I have assets that I'm gonna have to refinance next year with a higher rate. My asset valuations go down, so my projections are. My values are less. So if I was thinking on cashing out, which I did, I may have to wait till 25. So a lot of strategic thinking, a lot of strategic moves happening here. However, next year there will be deals in the streets. You watch it. There's gonna be a lot of opportunities, ethical opportunities for those of us looking for homes. If you're looking for a home, I think 24 is your year. If you're looking to invest by multifamily, 24 is your year. There's gonna be a lot of opportunity. And this has been your weekly real estate market update in under one minute. Happy Thanksgiving to you guys. Peace. And this has been your weekly real estate market update. I'll see you guys next week. Peace out. I'm gonna do the short one again because Thanksgiving is over, pal. And this has been your weekly real estate market update in under one minute. Peace out, guys.