Standards Over Momentum: A June 2026 Real Estate Market Update

The market is moving — but not for everyone.

In this episode, Martin Perdomo breaks down the June 2026 real estate market update and what the data is actually telling serious investors. NAR, Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com — the numbers don't fully agree, and Martin explains why that matters and what to look past.

What's covered:

• Why existing home sales are up but the market still feels stuck
• The price gap between NAR ($429,300), Zillow ($368,720), and Realtor.com data — and how to read it
• Inventory rising, days on market stretching to 52 days nationally
• Where buyers have the most leverage right now (Austin, Nashville, Miami) vs. where sellers still hold power (Northeast, Midwest)
• Mortgage rates at 6.52% and why the Fed can't move — the Iran conflict, oil prices, and May CPI at 4.2%
• What this market exposes: sellers with no pricing discipline, buyers without preparation, and investors who were riding momentum, not standards

This is not a broken market. It is a market that demands standards.

If you're building long-term wealth in real estate, this episode is your reality check.

Transcript

June 2026 Market Snapshot

SPEAKER_00 0:00

The market is moving again, but weak discipline still gets exposed. Welcome back. Here's a real estate market update for the week ending of June 13, 2026, and for the month of June 2026. The headline is simple. The market is moving, but it's not easy. NARS latest report showed existing home sales rose 3.2% in May to 4.17 million annual pace, the highest level since December. At the same time, affordability is still tight, mortgage rates are back above 6.5, and the broader market is still dealing with inflation pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and uneven buyer confidence. This is not a breakout market, it's a selective market. Let's talk about prices. Start with prices. NARS says the median existing home price in May was $429,000, $300, up 1.3% year over year, making the 35th straight month of annual price gains.

Price Signals And Conflicting Data

SPEAKER_00 1:12

Zillow's May report puts the typical U.S. home value at $368,720 up 0.8% from a year ago. That's a big gap. But Realtors May listing data shows the medium list price fell 2.4% year over year to $429,000, the steepest annual drop in the data going back to 2017. So there's conflicting data points from the three big guys, right? You got NARS telling us Mays had an increase of 1.3%. You have Zillow telling us it was only 0.8%. And then you have Realtor.com saying that the median price fell 2.4% year over year. It's all very confusing. We have to look at the overall market. The one thing's for sure is that the market is stagnant and it's cold right now. Nothing's moving and it's due to interest rates. Let's talk inventory. Inventory is improving, but enough to call this a full, not enough to call this a fully loose market. NAR reported 1.55 million homes for sale in May up 3.3% from April. That's a lot. That's a big swing month over month and up 0.6%

Inventory Rises Buyer Leverage Returns

SPEAKER_00 2:38

from a year ago, equal to 4.5 month, 4.5 month supply. Realtors.com made data shows active listings up 2.2% year over year nationally with the biggest inventory improvement in the Northeast and the Midwest. Redfin says the balance of power has shifted even more clearly towards buyers. 35 of 49 major metros in metros it analyzed were buyers market in May. Yes, they were, with nearly 47% more sellers than buyers nationally. That means the leverage is changing but unevenly. NARS says the median property sold in 29 days in May, down 32 days in April, though still slower than 27 days a year ago. Realtor.com's national May figure is broader and shows homes spent a median of 52 days in the market. Wow, that's a shocker from where we were just a few years ago in 22 and 23, where we couldn't keep houses on the market longer than a week. And we were getting 50,000, in 21, we were getting $40,000, $50,000 over asking in a weekend. Insane. How things change. Some of the lessons I've taken away from this is markets change in an instant. I've always known that.

Seasons Change Lessons From 2021

SPEAKER_00 4:34

Everything has a time, everything has a season. And just like that, things can change. Never get too comfortable, always be strategic, always be thinking ahead, and never think just because things are going fantastic in the moment that they will always go fantastic forever. Young people, as a young man, I used to think that. When I first started in this game, and I was selling mortgages in 2005, 2006, I made a lot of money for me back then. As a young man. And in that season, because I didn't understand seasons, I thought it would never come to an end. And for many of you right now, many investors or many no investors that came in the market back in 1918, you lived through a season that was an anomaly, right? You lived through an up season. And probably that was you thinking that, hey, this will never come to an end. And it came to an end really abruptly. I remember in 22, in January of 22, when Jerome Powell first announced the rate increase. That was right when Ukraine got invaded by Russia. And we saw the fastest rate increase we've ever seen in the history of our country in the year of 2022. We saw those rates just go up, go up, go up, go up really, really fast. And then I knew that the market was going to shift, even though it took three years for it to change. It wasn't until 25 where we started to feel the pain of that. But there's lessons here. As we move into mortgage rates, mortgage rates remain the main choke point. This goes back to 2022, right? So this has been the choke point since then. Freddie Mac says a 30-year fix averaged 6.52% as of June 11, up

Mortgage Rates And Inflation Shock

SPEAKER_00 6:39

from 6.48% the prior week. NAR notes the average 30-year fix for May was 6.44 up from 6.33 in April. Zillow says May's housing recovery went back on pause. Look, I was strategizing in January when we knew Kevin Walsh was going into office. In January, I was like, great, we have this big, beautiful bill that was just passed. There's a lot of favorable things there for investors with the 100% bonus depreciation. And those of you that don't know, that just means you can take a massive write-off when you buy property and you put capital expenditures into it. It's a beautiful thing for investors. And I said, that's a good thing. So the stars were aligning. And now we have Kevin Walsh coming in in May. That's another great thing. But what nobody thought, and what I didn't calculate was I did not think about a war that our country was going to attack Iran and Iran. We were going to be at war with Iran, and oil prices was going to spike up. And as oil prices spike up, we were going to see a price of everything go up. Gas. Then now that what happens there is my tenants' electric bill goes up, my tenants' expenses go up, all of my clients' expenses go up, including my own. Insurance goes up, everything goes up. And I did not project that we were going to have an inflation issue. And we're having an inflation issue. Therefore, the new Fed share becomes nearly impossible when we have inflation going up for the Federal Reserve to increase, to decrease rates. They can't print more money because that increased inflation. So that just tightens up mortgage rates. That just tightens up what happens in real estate. It impacts all of us. None of us are immune from this except the super elites that are actually the ones controlling the money all the way at the top. That's another topic for a totally different discussion. Let's talk about buyers' demand. Demand is not dead, it is fragile. NARS May sales print was strong. Sillo says May sales rose 4.8% month over month, though they were still 2.9% below last year. Realtor says pending home listings

Demand Is Fragile Market By Market

SPEAKER_00 9:32

rose 4.3% year over year in May, and the rate of contract signing rose 2.6%, which suggests buyers are responding when sellers meet the market. But Redfin's latest weekly update says pending sales fell 0.6%. There's a lot of contradicting data here. And what real estate has always been market-to-market dependent. You know, you can be in Ohio. I understand the Ohio market is pretty strong right now. And then you can go to St. Petersburg, Florida, where market is horrible. So, and this may apply for one area while it may apply for another area. So look at your market, talk to boots on the ground, talk to the realtors. If you're a realtor, you know what's happening on the ground. But overall, the market overall is turning into a buyer's market. The hottest and the weakest markets. The hottest markets are still concentrated in the Northeast. Yes, I knew that. And the Midwest. Realtors.com may hottness ranking put Hartford first, followed by Amherst, Northampton, and Waterbury Shelton. Homes in the top 20 hottest

Hot Markets Versus Weak Metros

SPEAKER_00 10:55

markets move in a median of 28 days. That's fantastic. More than three weeks faster than the national norm. And listings drew about three times the national average views per property. On the other side, reference says the strongest buyers market in May were Nashville, Miami, and Austin. Surprisingly, Austin, they have a major inventory issue where they have too much inventory, which drives prices down. Where sellers significantly, yeah, this is correct. Where sellers significantly outnumber buyers. So this is correct. This is where they have the the toughest, uh, the toughest market. That's the major tell. South and parts of Texas and Florida are giving buyers much more leverage while the Northeast remains structurally tight. I own property in both markets, and I certainly can attest that the North is absolutely stronger than the South. And that's just simple arithmetic. You have a bunch of new buildings, a bunch of inventory, new inventory that came up, up, down south, more inventory, supplies more options for buyers, the more options buyers have, the prices have to go down, up down, uh, up north. You have less inventory, the less inventory, the less options buyers have, and sellers can demand more for their prices. Just simple. Inventory activity and deal quality. This is not a market for lazy investors. NARS says individual investors or second home buyers made up 14% of transactions, down 16% in April and 17% a year ago. Cash sales were

Discipline For Investors And Final Take

SPEAKER_00 12:53

25% of transactions down from 27% one year ago. That tells you speculative intensity is lower. The market is demanding cleaner bases, more patient underwriting, and strong margin of safety. If you're depending on easy appreciation to rescue the mediocre deal, you are already in trouble. The macro story. I talked about this a little bit ago with the Iran situation. Rudders reported this week that May CPI rose 4.2% year over year, the highest rate in three years, driven largely by energy pressure tied to the Middle East conflict. Treasury yields stayed elevated, and that keeps mortgage rates elevated. The Fed's latest page book said homeowners are listing, which is easing supplies constraints somewhat, but the higher mortgage rates are still dumping activity, and contact and contacts expect only modest demand growth ahead. That is the real setup. More movement than earlier this year, but not enough macro relief to call this clean. A clean recovery. What it means for buyers, sellers, and investors. For buyers, this is a better market than the frenzy, but only if you are prepared. Inventory is better, competition is softer in many Sunbelt metros, and sellers are adjusting. But if your financing is weak or your payment ceiling is unclear, rates will punish you. And for sellers, denial expense is expensive right now. You can still sell, but not by pretending it's 2021. For investors, this is the standard market. Basis matters, debt matters, location matters, and local supply matters. The days of sloppy buying being covered by broad appreciation are gone. And this is where all of this ties together. A market like this exposes people. If it exposes the sellers with no pricing discipline, it exposes the buyer who wants certainty but refuses preparation. And it exposes the investor who never had real standard only momentum. Discipline means you do not chase. Standards mean you know what qualifies and what does not. And identity means you do not let market noise dictate your behavior. This market is not rewarding hype, it's rewarding clarity, patience, underwriting, and self-command. The people who win here are not the loudest, they are the most rounded. So the June 2026 market update is this sales improved, prices are still holding, inventory is gradually rising, buyers have more leverage in many metros, but mortgage rates and macro pressures are still keeping the entire market on a short leash. This is not a broken market. It is a market that demands standards. And if you want to build long-term wealth in real estate, this is exactly the kind of market where discipline stops being a slogan and starts becoming an edge. Thank you for listening. Appreciate you. I'll see you soon.