September 2026 Real Estate Market Update - The market isn’t saving you: operate better

We break down what August data really signals for the 2026 real estate market and why waiting for rates to “save” your deals is a trap. We argue that the winners now are operators who compete on execution, track the right numbers, and build systems that hold up under uncertainty. 

• buyers gaining leverage through higher inventory and more price cuts 
• rejecting the crash narrative and focusing on what the data actually says 
• rental market stabilization signals including vacancy and days to lease 
• separating occupancy from stability with collections as the proof 
• why expensive money changes refinancing strategy and raises bridge risk 
• underwriting to survive being wrong instead of forcing a return 
• shifting from landlord to operator by building a better machine 

Transcript

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The Wrong Questions About Real Estate

SPEAKER_00 0:33

September 26, state of the real estate market. The market isn't saving you to operate better. Welcome back to Wealthy AF. Let me start with something I just told my private mastermind a few days ago. A deal that only works on the calm day is a bet with a nice spreadsheet. And I think that perfectly describes where we are in real estate right now. Everybody wants to know are rates coming down? Are rents coming back? Have we hit the bottom? When does real estate get easy again? I think those are the wrong questions. The better question is can your portfolio perform in the market that actually exists here in 2026? Because August gave us some interesting signals. Not a crash, not a boom, something much more useful for operators. So let's get into it.

Buyers Regain Leverage

SPEAKER_00 1:46

Signal number one buyers have more leverage. Realtor.com's August numbers just came out. The national median asking price was about 424,500, down 1.3% from last year. Inventory climbed to roughly 1.4 million homes, up 3.6% year over year. And more than 20% of listings had a price cut. Pending sales also turned slightly negative year over year after eight straight months of growth. Now here's my take on that. I don't look at that and say the housing market is crashing. That's the lazy analysis. I look at it and say the buyer doesn't have to be stupid anymore. I remember saying back in 2020, if you've been listening to me long enough, you remember me saying 2020, 2021, investors were competing with stupid. And what I mean by stupid, I mean by people, undisciplined people and new investors overpaying $50,000, $70,000, $80,000 over asking. There's inventory, there's negotiating room. Sellers are adjusting. And realtor.com itself points out that August is normally a seasonal slower month. So don't build the crash narrative out in one month slowdown. But here's where this matters for landlords. When buyers have choices, sellers have to compete. When tenants have choices, landlords have to compete too. Same principle. You can't throw a throw a dirty unit online, take bad pictures, price it $200 above everybody else, have your leasing agent call somebody back three days later and then complain the market is bad. That's not the market, that's your operations.

Rental Data Starts Looking Less Bad

SPEAKER_00 4:05

Signal number two, the rental market may finally be stabilizing. This one is interesting. Apartment list says the national median rent increased 0.1% in August to $13.90 per month. That's the seventh consecutive monthly increase. But rents are still 0.8% lower than they were one year ago. And national multifamily vacancy came down to 7.1%. That's a significant significant because apartment list says vacancies declined for the first time since late 2021. Average time to lease a unit around 32 days. So are rents booming again? No, they're not. Notice what I didn't say. I didn't say rents are about to explode. I didn't say the bottom is definitely in. I'm saying the data is beginning to look less bad. That's different. And I'm seeing both sides of it in my own portfolio. Tampa has been difficult. Even though they ticked up 0.2% during August. I've also dealt with difficult leasing in Northeast Pennsylvania. But here's where being an operator actually matters. My experience at one property is not the entire market. That's something people get wrong all the time. They say, my unit isn't leasing, therefore, rents are collapsing. No, they're not. Maybe your price is wrong. Maybe the marketing is wrong. Maybe your manager isn't answering the phone. Maybe your unit's just stuck. Maybe it's the market. The operator's job is to find out which one is it. Inside our inner circle, last week I shared this with the community. Occupied is not covered. Occupancy is the story. Collections are the proof. We had properties reach full occupancy. Great, but full occupancy doesn't pay for the mortgage, taxes, and insurance. Collected rents does. That distinction is what separates owning rentals from operating a real estate business. Signal number three.

Expensive Money And Refinance Reality

SPEAKER_00 7:25

Money is still expensive. Freddie Mac ended August with a 30-year residential mortgage averaging 6.66%. That's basically unchanged from the week before, and actually a little higher than the same period last year. Again, that's a homeowner's mortgage rate. It's not my multifamily refinance rate. It's not your DSER quote, but it tells us what kind of capital environment we are operating in. And this is where I want to bring you into what I'm actually dealing with right now. At Hubert, my Tampa property, my Tampa project, all three final building inspections passed just this August 31st. One certificate of completion has been issued as of the recording, as of this recording right now. We're still clearing administrative water and wastewater conditions on the other two buildings. So after all that construction, inspections, electrical, mechanical, permits, utility, what's the mission now? Lease it, stabilize it, and refinance it. That's it. And I don't care nearly as much right now about some sexy cash out number. Would I like a cash out? Absolutely, of course I would. But my priority isn't getting out of, my priority is getting out of bridge financing and putting the asset into a durable long-term debt. And by the way, bridge is very dangerous in this market because of the uncertainty. But I understand that in some cases, you have to do bridge because there's no other options, is if it's a heavy value add. Control first, cash out second. I told my mastermind the maturity wall doesn't care what the Fed does. A loan comes due on the date it comes due. Period. You're refinancing into the world that exists on that day. That's real estate. You don't get to refinance into the market you underwrote three years ago. You refinance into today's market, which is why another thing I told them was you don't underwrite to hit a return, you underwrite to survive being wrong. That's becoming one of the biggest lessons of this entire cycle for me.

Why 2026 Rewards Operators

SPEAKER_00 10:07

Signal number four. This is an operator's market. And this is probably the most important part of the entire episode. August is not telling me to hide. One of the rules I've documented is occupancy is not the same as stability. Stability is occupancy plus collections, expense control, tenant quality, reporting discipline, and predictable cash flow. Another rule I've written down is management reports are not the same as the truth. And another is small operation leaks compound into major portfolio drags. That's where my attention is going here, the rest of 2026. Not obsessing over whether the Fed moves 25 basis points, collections, leasing velocity, turn time, expenses, insurance, debt maturity, reserves, tenant quality, property management accountability. Those are the things that owners can actually control. And I said something in my August 8th mastermind that I think fits this perfectly. Stop thinking of yourself as a problem solver and start thinking of yourself as a machine builder. Because if every month you're personally solving the same vacancy problem, the same collection problem, the same property management problem, you don't have five different problems. You have a machine producing these outcomes. Redesign the machine. That's the shift from landlord to operator.

Build The Machine Not Heroics

SPEAKER_00 12:05

Here's where I stand going into September. I think we're moving into a more interesting part of this cycle. Not easy, interesting. Inventory is giving buyers more leverage. Rental vacancies is finally showing signs of tightening national. Rent declines are moderating, but financing is still restrictive. And local markets are wildly, wildly different. That's exactly the environment where good operators start separating themselves. Not because they can predict the market, because they don't need perfect conditions to survive. One of the ideas behind my new book from Survival to Mastery is that clarity changes how you operate. And that's what this market requires. Look at what is, not what you wish was true. Know the numbers, know the downside, know the break-even occupancy, know the debt, know your reserves, know your manager is, know what your manager is actually doing, and then make the decision. Because as I told my mastermind, anticipation is power, clarity is power, but anticipation is the ultimate power. Discipline, standards, and identity. And that's where we end. Discipline is looking at the real numbers when you believe, when you rather believe the story. Standards is refusing to accept poor collections, lazy leasing, 30-day terms, bad reporting, or weak underwriting. An identity is deciding. I'm not somebody who happens to own rental properties. I'm an operator. I'm the principal. I'm responsible for the machine. The market gives you the environment. You determine how your portfolio performs inside

Discipline Standards Identity And Newsletter

SPEAKER_00 14:10

of it. And if you want more of this kind of thinking every week, I write from landlord to operator, the weekly operator letter, where I break down the signals behind the headlines and what I actually what it actually means for owners. Join the newsletter and I'll see you there. And remember, being broke was never the plan. Stay focused, stay disciplined. Peace out.