I, Claudia: Germany´s Election 2025 - Why The Results Matter Everywhere

Germany’s election results have a global impact. The AfD’s surge and the SPD’s historic collapse reveal a fractured political landscape. Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU faces coalition headaches, while far-right and far-left parties will reshape Germany’s stance on NATO, Russia, and Ukraine. What does this mean for EU stability, U.S.-Germany relations, and the rise of anti-establishment movements worldwide? Join Claudia as she breaks down the implications of this pivotal election in her monologue. Subscribe for more cross-border analysis and views from the Podcast Over Here, Over There.

• Germany's election results reflect a significant shift in political dynamics.
• The CDU's return to power is marked by a historic low for the Social Democrats.
• The rise of the AFD signals growing far-right sentiment in Germany.
• Mainstream parties are struggling to maintain their influence amid rising extremism.
• The far-left party's resurgence is fueled by economic discontent and anti-war sentiment.
• International endorsements have emboldened the AFD's position in German politics.
• The political landscape is increasingly fractured, complicating governance.
• The implications of the election extend beyond Germany to the EU and global politics.
• Democracy is facing challenges, with complacency posing a significant risk.
• The future remains uncertain, with ongoing tensions and challenges ahead.

Sound Bites

• "The storm hasn't passed."

#GermanyElection #AfD #SPD #CDU #EU #Ukraine #NATO #Russia #GlobalPolitics #PoliticalAnalysis #Podcast #OverHereOverThere #EuropeanElections #FarRight #FarLeft #FriedrichMerz #ClaudiaKoestler

Chapters

• 0:00 Intro - Music
• 0:34 Germany's most pivotal election in decades
• 1:30 CDU back in power. But here's the twist
• 2:37 The far-right AFD doubled its vote to 20.8 percent
• 2:58 The AfD broke the firewall
• 3:37 Another twist: The Far-Left Party Rebounds
• 4:41 How Strong Can a CDU coalition be vs. AfD
• 5:16 The normalisation of extreme positions
• 6:13 What's next?
• 6:33 Outro

Transcript

Claudia Koestler (00:19.278)

Hello and welcome back to Over Here, Over There, your Podcast Across Borders. Have you subscribed yet? If yes, a big thank you, if not, please do, we really like to connect with you and your views. 

Germany just held its most pivotal election in decades—and the results are anything but ordinary. Because Germany’s election isn’t just about Germany. With this country being Europe’s largest economy and the third-largest in the world, it makes it indispensable to Europe’s stability and global trade. Therefore, any struggles ripple through the EU and beyond. Plus, this election has been a snapshot of a world where mainstream parties are crumbling, far-right and far-left forces are rising, and alliances are fraying. Let’s unpack what happened, why it matters, and what it means over here and for the world. 

The Conservative Party CDU and its Bavarian sister party CSU roared back to power with 28.5% of the vote—up nearly 5 points since 2021. But here’s the twist: they’re now the smallest major party in a fractured parliament. Think of it as a victory lap with a warning label. 

The Social Democrats, who had been in power in a coalition with the Greens and the Liberals, hit a historic low—16.4%. That’s their worst showing ever. Imagine the Democratic Party losing half its base overnight. This isn’t just a loss; it’s a disaster.

The far-right AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) doubled its vote to 20.8%, and with this becoming Germany’s second-largest party. They dominate the East, where economic frustration and anti-establishment rage fuel their rise. This isn’t just a German problem, however—it’s in keeping with far-right movements everywhere. Here in Germany Voters prioritized immigration, inflation, energy costs, and a two-year recession. The AfD positioned itself as anti-establishment, appealing to those disillusioned with mainstream parties’ handling of this topic. A couple of years ago it would have been toxic to many voters to opt for them, due to similarities with policies and rhetorics of the Third Reich, with mainstream parties building a so-called firewall not to cooperate with them. But the AfD broke that Firewall (Brandmauer) by gaining international endorsements (e.g., Elon Musk, J.D. Vance) and by mainstream parties like the CDU when they adopted stricter asylum policies, indirectly validating AfD positions.

But here’s another twist: The far-left Left Party rebounded to 8.8%, exploiting anti-war sentiment and economic discontent. Together with the AfD, they’re reshaping Germany’s political map—and both parties have one thing in common: scepticism of NATO and support for Russia. 

So, what next? Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative party CDU, needs partners to govern, but the math is brutal. The Greens are too weak, and the FDP not even in Parliament any more, and the AfD is still officially toxic. It will likely be a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, with the latter being a junior partner. But the question will be how strong they can be against the influence of the AfD. Stability? Not in this playbook.

A Merz-led Germany might push harder for EU sovereignty against the U.S.—but also faces pressure from the AfD to cut support for Ukraine. Imagine a Germany torn between pro-Russian populists and pro-EU pragmatists. The stakes for Kyiv couldn’t be higher.

Merz has already clashed with Trump over election interference. If he leans into EU-first policies, expect fireworks with Washington.

Now that we are in the aftermath of a very stressful, very gritty, and intense election, how does it all feel, you ask? Well, it has left many torn. There is relief that the AfD didn’t hit the prognosis 25 percent, but there is horror at the normalization of extreme positions. This schizophrenia is the most insidious threat. The exhaustion that has taken place isn’t peace—it’s the echo of global chaos in local politics. Traditional parties seem like actors who’ve forgotten their lines—lost, speechless, irrelevant. The voice of democracy itself is hoarse, and it sounds like Lady Macbeth’s warning: ‘What’s done cannot be undone.’ But what’s next? That’s still in our hands. Complacency now would be like celebrating a small flame while the house next door is on fire. The storm hasn’t passed—it’s just the calm before. 

Thank you for listening, please share your thoughts and subscribe. Til next time, all the best from Over Here to you Over There.