Democracies' Winning Strategy - Stronger Together

Summary

In this episode of the Over Here, Over There podcast, hosts Dan Harris and Claudia Koestler discuss President Trump's on-and-off-again 50% tariff on the EU, the reactions from European leaders, and the implications for global trade. They explore the upcoming midterm elections as a critical moment for Trump's presidency and the Democratic Party's need for strong leadership and unity. The conversation also touches on the rise of BRICS nations and the potential challenges they pose to Western democracies, as well as the possibility of another impeachment for Trump. The hosts emphasize the importance of unity and collective action in preserving democracy across borders.

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Takeaways

• The erratic nature of Trump's administration is the new norm.
• European leaders reacted strongly to Trump's tariff announcement.
• The midterm elections will serve as a litmus test for Trump's popularity.
• Democrats need to present strong leadership to counter Trump.
• The EU's unity is crucial in facing challenges from the US.
• BRICS nations are rising as a significant global force.
• Impeachment could be a possibility if Democrats regain control of the House.
• Every individual plays a role in the future of democracy.
• The US should learn from the EU's approach to unity and diversity.
• Collective action is essential for preserving democratic values.

Sound Bites

• "Erratic is the new norm."
• "Keep calm and carry on."
• "Europe won't be bullied."
• "Midterms will be the litmus test."
• "The US can learn from the EU."
• "The rise of BRICS is a major shift."
• "Every single person matters."

Here's the YouTube video episode.

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Website: https://overhereoverthere.org/

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Chapters

• 0:00 Intro Clip
• 0:54 Intro Music
• 1:10 Introduction to the Podcast and Current Events - Dan Harris
• 3:03 The Impact of Trump's Tariff Announcement - Claudia Koestler
• 6:02 Midterm Elections: A Litmus Test for Trump
• 8:50 The Need for Democratic Leadership and Unity
• 12:10 The Role of the EU and Global Alliances
• 15:05 The Rise of BRICS and Its Implications
• 18:08 Impeachment: Possibilities and Political Consequences
• 22:35 Admiring the EU and its shared values
• 25:13 Other Democratic Alliances - Stepping Up
• 27:33 BRICS - How to Address This Alliance
• 31:09 Chances of Impeachment?
• 35:04 Every Person (Voter) Matters
• 35:55 Outro - Music

Transcript

Dan Harris 

What the Democrats probably need to do most of all is, again, leaders at this point, because we're still not even at the midterms. And usually for a leader to come, that usually waits after the midterm, and then the presidential election happens. But I think you've got to be creative in this environment. Because these are desperate times. You have to think differently, to steal an Apple phrase. You have to think differently here and think about how we can get some leaders right up to the floor so people can follow or just be led as to what needs to be done. What needs to be done during these kinds of times, and these are unprecedented times. S, it requires some creative thinking and unprecedented actions on the part of the Democrats.

Welcome to Over Here Over There, podcasts across borders. You can be part of this intercultural discussion on our website, overhereoverthere.org, or our YouTube channel. And we're on all major platforms as well. So, don't forget to like and subscribe to the podcast wherever you are. We'd appreciate that. Claudia, when we were talking about topics of the week recently, he did it again. You know who I'm talking about.

Claudia Koestler

Absolutely, the one we shall not name too early.

Dan Harris

Yeah, yeah, OK. The moment we put the phone down, I'll name him, Trump had announced something that got the attention around the world, and that was slapping a 50 % tariff on the EU. And then we just heard he's postponing that after a call with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the EU Commission. And so we're off again.

So, it's like, this is the capricious nature of this administration that has really just befuddled, confused, and undermined the United States' position around the world. It's difficult actually to do a podcast. Let's face it, try to do a podcast and keep up with this and keep your current. But let's try. We know that, for instance, we're going to get this type of behavior. So that is the normality (air quotes), the normality to all this, right?

Claudia Koestler 

Yeah, erratic is the new norm. it seems, yeah, absolutely. But it is really hard to keep up. And I do understand people that actually want to skip a beat here and there and just, you know, listen to news every other day, because by the time you have actually caught up with something that Trump has done or announced or is planning, it might have been quite differently in a couple of hours again. So, keep your calm. Keep calm. That's basically what you. Yes. Right. Exactly. Isn't that the British motto?

Dan Harris

Keep calm and carry on. Yeah, and then that's been bastardized quite a bit, you know, keep calm and blah, blah, blah, do something else. Right. But let's go back to the original. Keep calm and carry on. That's what's important. But what was the reaction in Europe to all this so far?

Claudia Koestler

I mean, first of all, there was a rush of adrenaline, of course, to everyone. And the reaction from Europe was immediate. That was good and also intense. For example, the German Minister for Economy, Katharina Reich, she called the move an attack on global trade. And the France finance minister described it as brutal and unfounded. And the European Commission, through President Ursula von der Leyen, called it a blow to the world economy and made it absolutely clear that the EU is preparing countermeasures. So they have already prepared to a certain extent for anything that might have come that way. And it's a so-called big bazooka. It is the EU's anti-coercion instrument. Is that the right pronunciation, Dan?

Dan Harris

Coercion, coercion.

Claudia Koestler

The coercion instrument. It is a measurement that could restrict the US access to the EU market in finance and tech, and in other areas like public procurement. So the EU is sort of ready. So when this announcement came that he is thinking about 50 % tariffs, the reaction, as I said, was very intense and very firm.

Dan Harris

So, the message is clear from Europe that Europe, it won't be bullied. It won't be bullied. I mean, it's actually a larger market than the United States. But the key phrase that we want to, or key word that we have been talking about, is being united, a united Europe. And I think that's what Trump was banking on, as is a lot of autocratic dictators are when they deal with Europe, they think, how can we divide Europe or pick it off or whatever? And so far, they've stuck together. And in fact, it seems like they double down on their unity, which is great. But we'll talk more about that at the end. and the real problem here is it'll cause pain, a great deal of pain, as it hasn't necessarily happened just yet.

But it's starting to have an effect on the US economy. And it'll have a lot of pain for a lot of millions of Americans, including a lot of MAGA people in Trump's orbit. So, it'll be interesting to see what the reaction is over time.

Claudia Koestler

The question will probably be, they actually those supporters, those mega people that are now being affected by it financially, will they pinpoint it to Trump, or will they find another scapegoat and believe that it is due to some other ongoing issue in the world? That is one major question that time will tell where it's going down. I am absolutely with you. It is already showing and it will get much worse that it hurts so many people where it really, really hurts and that is financially.

Dan Harris

Yeah. And this will come to a head in the midterms. We'll really see where the barometer of Trump's popularity is. We all know that it's now into the thirties, which is terrible, especially for someone who's just passed his first hundred days. It's still early in his presidency. That's terrible. And so, the midterms will be the litmus test, a powerful litmus test, because the House might go to the Democrats. Senate, there's a chance. Who knows? And that'll have all sorts of implications, as we can talk about, as far as Trump getting through his agenda or the actions that he's taking, as far as executive orders and things like that. And certainly, impeachment possibilities as well in the House, and what happens in the Senate. So midterms are a high watermark, as far as the power in Washington goes. It's sort of a very pivotal point for the future of American governance and the resilience of its democratic norms.

Claudia Koestler

I fully agree that this is going to be like a litmus test for Trump and his politics, and his supporters. But I also see that those midterms are only one and a half years away now. So it isn't that long. And from my view as a European, I do not see a counterbalance rising.

Is there any politician or a Democrat that aims to fill the void as a true opposition leader to Trump, someone that embodies the anti-Trump, so to speak, the true democracy, someone of the European Union, other countries that share Western values could turn to and see where the future of the US might lie and find an ally. Do you see? Someone rising like an anti-Trump over there.

Dan Harris

I don't see anybody, any one personality at the moment, some leader, somebody coming out of the mists, like in a Marvel comic movie or some kind of Steven Spielberg. Rising to the occasion. Not yet. But there are voices in the Senate like Chris Murphy; in the House, Jamie Raskin. You could go through a list of them. 

Claudia Koestler

A hero.

Dan Harris 

They're starting to really over the last two or three months to really find their form and come at the Trump administration for its undemocratic behaviours and ways. And so, I think what really needs to be done, though, it's got to be, as we said, unity on both sides of the Atlantic, which we'll get to. But what the Democrats probably need to do most of all is again, leaders at this point, because we're still not even at the midterms. And usually for a leader comes, who usually waits after the midterm, and then the presidential election happens. But I think you've got to be creative in this environment. Because these are kind of desperate times. You have to think differently, to steal an apple phrase. You have to think differently here. And think, how can we get some leaders right up to the floor so people can follow or just be led as to what needs to be done. What needs to be done during these kinds of times? And these are unprecedented times. So, it requires some creative thinking and unprecedented actions on the part of the Democrats. And I think that the Democratic National Committee, with Ken Martin, needs to think, OK,

What should we do in order to because Kamala Harris had 106 days as a good candidate. But it was too short a time for her to get her message across and to get known to the American public And so she fell just a little bit short if she had more time. I think she would have done it

Claudia Koestler

Let me tell you one more topic. She has missed the topic of economy. She should have focused on that one.

Dan Harris

Yeah, she really, that was a big mistake. Yes, Americans were still hurting from the inflation that was caused during Biden's term, but there were a lot of good things to point out and things that she should have talked about the future and how things are going to improve if she were elected, more so. And she did have a few good points, good policies, but it wasn't, wasn't enough, and really after that flurry of the first six weeks where she just rocketed up and really defied expectations, at least for me, I didn't think she was going to do as well as she did. Then she sort of levelled off the message. They really let Trump back into the media and to gain and dominate the media for after like six weeks or two months of that.

Then it was Trump coming back in and stealing the attention of everyone. And so, we didn't really hear as much from Kamala as we should have on the out front. anyway, but that's not to rerun the last election. I think that what really needs to be done is to have an early indication of who these leaders from the Democratic Party will be, even to just have people in the DNC to have people announce their intentions, or to have some kind of precursor to the primaries even before the midterms. We just need a level of a layer of leaders that are emerging, and they can be within the government. They can be people from outside Congress, I should say. Just some really solid candidates come up and help lead the way, and we'll get to know them more. They'll have more time to get to know them. They can fundraise. They can explain their policies and really get the message out about how dangerous it is the Trump administration is. So that's what's important. Just, why not? Because Trump, look at what Trump did. He actually came out in November, I think it was 15th of November, 2022.

Dan Harris

He announced his candidacy for the presidency. That's almost two years beforehand. OK, so right after the midterms of that cycle. Now, of course, he did that to help stave off these court cases, because he said, I'm running for president. You can't throw me into jail or convict me, because I'm a presidential candidate. I'll try that someday myself. Just to know, instead I'm running for president if I get a parking ticket or something like that.

Claudia Koestler

But that is a good idea.

Dan Harris

Isn't it a good idea? So, try that even if you're a German, like if you're traveling in the States, just if you get pulled over, say, officer, I'm really sorry, but I'm thinking about I'm running, I'm declaring my run for the presidency right now.

Claudia Koestler

You will have your ticket swapped into one that goes directly into a mental institution.

Dan Harris

Yeah, you'll have to get the right cop, though. If he's a MAGA supporter, then you're in trouble. just don't anyway. But but, no, they really need to get out early and to get their leaders up, visible and vocal. And we've seen it with Bernie Sanders and AOC doing that tour a month or two ago. They did really well. You know, that's the left of the party. And so on and so forth. We need people from the center and from the right of the center to do the same. And on that score, I would just say from a domestic point of view that it's got to be a broad church, a broad coalition. So the DNC, the Democratic National Committee, needs to loosen up and also accommodate. Doesn't have to take them in like, say, you know, Adam Kissinger or Liz Cheney, whatever. But you've got to encourage people from different perspectives, be part of a democratic, pro, small d, pro-democratic coalition. And to be a force, a united force against Trump and the MEGA policies that he's doing. And you could disagree on a lot of the policies, but what we're talking about is having a solid pro-democratic base of support and to make sure that we are united across the spectrum.

And so, the Democrats should probably lead that charge, get everyone into that coalition as much as possible. And take a note of how it's done in Europe and elsewhere, how coalitions are done. Because coalitions in the United States aren't common. We really don't do coalitions as such.

Claudia Koestler

You don't have enough parties.

Dan Harris

Yeah. And I just say, and well, I'll get off my high horse in a second, but I'll just say internationally, we also have to reach out and look at countries that are, especially in the Western hemisphere, but throughout the world, that are pro-democratic and really form partnerships with them internationally as well. So we need a full-court press, both domestically and internationally to unite. So, cause right now, as you mentioned earlier, the United States' position in the world is sinking and sinking fast. So, for the United States to recover from this, we have to show from a pro-democratic side of things that this won't last forever. we, the pro-democratic organizations, will be back in power. We are going to win next time. And so, don't count us out. Don't leave us. Yes, this is a difficult time for everyone, but don't count us out.

Claudia Koestler

That is a very, very good point. And you said the word unity and that the shared values and the goal of saving democracy must rank higher than any inner party differences, opinions on smaller matters. That is all still fine, but we have to come together and unify under this united goal actually what we are all after, and that we have to save democracy. And actually, I think the US can look at the EU at the moment because Europe as such is absolutely famous for its diverse history, all those little countries and nations, and they are so different. We've experienced it, you know, within an hour, you are in a different world. They speak different languages, they have their traditions, and all that is so valuable and wonderful.

But still, in this global world that we are in, we have to also think about the higher stakes that are at risk and therefore find the common in our differences. And that is in the EU that we share Western values, democracy. So, when it comes to politics and when it comes to the economy, we need to speak with one voice and we need to be dealing in the interest of everyone, for the best of everyone. And that is best done if it's in a united voice, in a unique voice. If it's in one voice, I mean. So the U.S. could actually learn a little bit from how the EU is doing it at the moment, because it is always a balance, and there are always negative points, and you can always criticize. But overall, in a short period of time, the EU has done tremendously well. And you still have those nations and countries that are blooming in their differences, in their wonderful quirkiness and in their uniqueness, and with all their traditions. But when it comes to politics and a global standing, we need to be united. And that is something that especially the Democrats need to actually learn from Europe in a way. And basically, this is not a done deal yet. And it's not, it's going to be a fight forever. You always have to fight for it. There is never going be a win, and you will always be under threat. So, this is also needed outside of the US you always need to have a clear vision in your leadership. You have to have a backbone, and you have to know what Western democratic values are and why they are so important. Why it's worth fighting for it.

Dan Harris 

Right. I mean, very good point, very good statement. And I agree with that 100%. But I would also say, I always look at things between the micro and the macro. And that's a very good macro analysis of what needs to be done. And the micro level, I think it's the key message that needs to get put down to the voter in the United States or the voter in Britain, because we've still been experiencing Brexit and its aftermath. But show them how the lack of democratic institutions and principles and norms of behaviour. Can it affect them directly from their pocketbooks to their health to their freedoms?

As a citizen, I really get into the minutiae and say, this is what happens. I mean, just take a look. I mean, look at my iPhone, and I have this app with the stock market. Look at what happens when you have an autocratic ruler who decides to throw in a tariff for a couple of days and then take it off the next few days, and all that. That affects, or does away with, your healthcare, like Medicaid and Medicare.

And this is what happens when democracy is undermined. So it's both the macro level and the micro level. There's, you know, various, various things that we have to, that we have to consider, and how much of an effort it is to get this structure, this unity structure, you know, unified structure. And I agree totally. They seem to be doing a heck of a lot better job at being unified. And here we are. This is I admire them so much. And I'm glad I got two citizenships within Europe, which is great. So I can say I'm with you as well. So, but here is your not only it's I think the EU to me is amazing because, you know, we have the United States, and we have a common language and things like that. Here in Europe, you have

Different cultures, as you explained, you just go 100 miles one way and it's completely different landscape figuratively as far as, or literally as far as culture and politics and everything else. But the EU is unified behind a common principle, common EU principles of the common good of all. And you can see the benefit that's happened. Sure, there's lots of things wrong with it still, a lot of things to be worked out. But they're certainly doing a better job than seeing the division that is taking place over in the United States.

Claudia Koestler

Diane, you mentioned before that you want to have a broad alliance within the US to oppose Trump and to win the next midterms. But what about other alliances? I mean, do you think that, you know, the EU, for example, and other countries that share Western values, democratic values, like Canada? Australia, New Zealand. Do you see them in need to step up and form a new alliance as well?

Dan Harris

I think they have to watch out for themselves. That's number one. And Canada, for example, has done that really, really well. And they've gotten a lot of sympathy and empathy from people in the United States. Because I grew up an hour from the Canadian border. And I consider Canadians almost very similar to Americans. They're a different country, but I really appreciated them, friendliest of borders going until Trump came along. So, there's a lot of goodwill still with Canada that the American people have towards them. But Canada is doing a good job. They are going out and finding alliances. mean, the King makes a visit, opening up Parliament. It's really circumventing the United States. looking for different markets. France, let's go to France. France is doing the same thing. They don't miss a beat. President Macron does not miss a beat when he sees an opening. He will fill that void and become like, are the leader in this area now. We are going to sign this accord with Vietnam and these Asian countries. He doesn't miss a beat. And he can see that not only is it opportunist, but it's needed for democratic purposes to show that there are still countries that they can rely on, these nations around the world can rely on Western democracies to do business and to have friendly relations with. so, whether you think that the United States should be the number one power in the world, leading all the discussions like it has been over the last, since World War II.

Okay, that's what our position is until recently. But now it's certainly in question in a big way. And that is being filled by other countries. And other countries prefer not to have that done, particularly with the likes of China, which is not missing an opportunity either, throughout Asia, throughout Africa, elsewhere. So yeah, do they need to step up and look at alliances? Yes, they do. But my message is also, if we have that unity, form a base of opposition in the United States and with across with a broad coalition and work with other countries to that end, then that'll help counterbalance what's happening now.

Claudia Koestler

I'd argue that it concerns building resilience against authoritarian tactics, which is a global priority. We should identify and support countries working to strengthen this resilience. Since you mentioned China, there’s a significant issue we haven’t discussed much yet. Let’s address that as well, as it represents another major shift on the global stage, and that is the rise of the BRICS nations. This bloc has now expanded to include countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Indonesia, and originally it includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. They account for over 40% of the world's economy and more than half of the global population. And unlike traditional Western alliances, many BRICS members don't necessarily share democratic values. What do you think that West should do about that? Is that something that we can just watch or I mean, the BRICS might become an economic powerhouse that threatens, for example, the EU's position on the global stage.

How should we address that?

Dan Harris 

I think that the one thing that they got going for them is the economic power that they could wield. But they all do something different, don't they? Saudi Arabia with its oil, China with its manufacturing, India with its high-tech pharmaceuticals, a large population, highly educated. They all have something unique. So what binds them together besides just being opposed to the United States?

or Western democracies or the EU. So, but they are, they are do meet and they do strategize. So that's different. And I think that the thing that one could do is look at it both from a bilateral and a multilateral. Now, multilateral, you're not going to get that from Trump. He's going to stay away from that. So that's going to hurt. you know, in the United States, cause he's not going to, he doesn't like to get into those. So, it's bilateral. So, he's doing that. He takes a trip to Saudi Arabia, which, of course, he's doing side business for his empire as well while he's doing it. It's something that, it's how business is done currently in the Middle East, mostly on a bilateral basis instead of on a multilateral basis across the Middle East. That's just the nature of that region. So, it's a bit of a mixed bag as far as the BRICS go and how to relate to them. And, we could go on, this could be several hours of the conversation as far as how we currently are, as an audit or credit leader in the United States, how do you deal with the BRICS now, when you don't have power? Very difficult, very difficult. And so, I think that you got to just look at it case by case within the BRIC nations, see how you can relate to them, form a partnership with them, either bilaterally or multilateral in other ways. But that's the best you can do at the moment when you're out of power. But come the midterms, that might change.

Claudia Koestler 

Speaking of power, you mentioned one word that caught my attention right away at the beginning, and that was the word impeachment. Do you think that there is a realistic chance of another impeachment for Trump if he continues like he does at the moment?

Dan Harris

I think impeachment, if the Democrats win in the midterms in the House, yes, I would put at least even money that he'll be impeached for taking a number of things that have happened over the first even the first six months of his tenure as president. And we'll see what happens over the course of the next year or so. So, the House generates the impeachment articles and votes on it. And then it goes over to the Senate.

And for a trial, if the trial happens. Now, that is the big question. So, will he get impeached? Yes. For the third time? Yes. He probably will, I would bet he would be. He would be for some, for some number of reasons. Would he be convicted? That's the question. And I think he's only convicted if he is looked at as a liability for their chances in 2028 for, if he looks like he's going to lead the MAGA Republicans down even further, electorally, then there might be some softness in the Senate, some consideration, extra consideration that maybe that they would, they would go, I think it's highly unlikely that he's going to be convicted in the Senate. But here's a way that here's just, it's a numbers game that, okay,

Say we flip the Senate. That would be miraculous. That would be fantastic. So, the Democrats are 53 or 54 up, 54 maybe to 46, 53 to 47. Anyway, they've got a cushion of three or four votes. Then you get possibly eight or 10 senators, Republican senators, more moderate, who will vote to convict him on the impeachment charge. So you've got to, you're still a little bit short. I think it's going to come down to, if it happens, I think it's going to come down to just a handful of senators on the Republican side, maybe four or five. And will they vote to convict? That will be the issue. I think it might come down to that. But also, along the way, like with these trials, his court trials that he had in the run-up to the election. That gave Trump actually more air, more airtime. And it really galvanized his base and helped him coalesce his support going into the election. So there could be unintended consequences. I'm sure the Democrats would fear that. But I think they got to do their job.

Number one, you gotta do your job. You're elected, you gotta do your job. And if someone's done something wrong, you've gotta do your job and assess that and impeach him if that is the case. Okay, and it's not, again, it's not a legal action. This is a congressional action. It only happens in Congress, not in the courts. Okay, so this is something that will happen in the U.S. House of Representatives and then later in the Senate. So Unlikely, I wouldn't give it. I wouldn't put my hopes on it, but it'll be interesting to see how close it gets after if the democrats do well in the midterms.

Claudia Koestler 

Well, my takeaway is that every single person matters, whether it's a politician in the House of Congress or a voter; everyone matters. And whether you are in Berlin, in Boston, in Washington, Paris, Sydney, the future of democracy depends on each and every one of us across borders, across parties, across generations. Definitely we cannot afford to be divided when the stakes are that high.

Dan Harris

Yeah, that's right. Amen to that. Amen to that, sister. That's a powerful message.

Listen to Claudia. Yeah, she's back. She's the one, but anyway, Maybe we should end it there. But we just say thank you to all our listeners for sharing for and for our listeners for sharing this podcast and in general for joining us on Over Here, Over There. If you want to be part of the conversation, visit over here overthereoverthere.org or find us on YouTube, like subscribe and let's keep building back bridges because democracy needs all of us now more than ever, as Claudia says, and I fully support her in that. So anyway, stay tuned for another unmissable episode, and thank you for being over here, over there.