Bavaria Elections and The AfD - The Firewall Starts to Crack

When you hear 'German local elections', you may think, understandably, that they don't have much impact on your way of life. Au contraire, or more appropriately, nicht so. In this episode, Claudia Koestler and Dan Harris explore the recent local elections in Germany, analyzing their implications for local and national politics, the rise of the far-right AfD, and the state of democracy in Europe. 

From the micro to the macro, join us for insights into how local German election results reflect broader political trends and what they mean for the future of democracy. Please don't forget to like, share, subscribe, and leave your comments below on this episode and elections in your area of the world, and how they impact your country and the rest of the world.

For more information on the podcast, please check out overhereoverthere.org, and click on our social media channels above. Vielen Dank!

Transcript

Dan Harris: Welcome to Over Here, Over There, your Podcast across borders, I am Dan Harris, I´m here with my podcast colleague Claudia Koestler in Munich and I´m in the Cotswolds, in Cheltenham, where we've had better weather days, but then again, that’s a normal thing around the Cotswolds, you know, the weather could be better. 

Claudia Koestler: What a British thing to do, to start with the weather 

Dan Harris: Yes, I know. But we've got something to talk about today, and that is the elections in Germany that happened recently and their implications. So, can you please tell us, Claudia, for our audience around the globe, the importance of these elections? Even though they're local elections, they still matter; they still show something significant going on in Germany, which will affect the rest of Europe, which will affect the power balance in the West.

Claudia Koestler: Bavaria isn't just any federal state; it is Germany's economic powerhouse, its conservative heartland, and a political barometer for the entire country, so this election, you can say it was sort of like a litmus test. 

Dan Harris: Let’s just cut right to the chase on this one. Everybody is looking for the strength - was there strength in the AfD, the Alternative for Deutschland? What happened there as because they're looking for indications as to what's going to happen in the next run-up, the next election. Is there strength, is there momentum behind them?

Claudia Koestler: You could say it in old Facebook terms: it's complicated. The CSU, Bavaria's traditional ruling party, and the Free Voters, called Freie Wähler here, remain the dominant forces. They held onto their strongholds across the state and won most of the races as mayors and district administrators. The much-talked-about blue wave - blue is the color that stands for the far-right AfD - that has not happened. The AfD did not win a single race for mayor nor for any district administrator. But - and this is the important bit - the AfD still made gains. They didn't break through at the top, but they expanded their presence significantly in local councils and district assemblies. So no tsunami, but a slow, steady rise of the tide, I'd say.

Dan Harris: There are all sorts of things afterwards, like you say, that oh they didn't win this, but then again, they have their roots spreading further. What are the parties themselves saying? How are they spinning it?

Claudia Koestler: Well, the CSU, led by Prime Minister Markus Söder, claimed a clear victory. Söder said, "We are clearly number one, “ and yeah, he might be right; the CSU is still the most powerful party in Bavaria by a long shot. But internally, there's concern that the CSU has long prided itself on covering the entire political spectrum from the center to the more conservative right, and that monopoly is crumbling. Voters are drifting further right beyond the CSU's reach, and the Free Voters, Söder’s coalition partner, also celebrated holding their ground. But like the CSU, they are hemorrhaging votes to the AfD on their right flank. The AfD was actually disappointed, which was clearly visible, because they had hopes to take at least one or two of the top positions somewhere. But then they took the Bavarian results, as a spin, as proof of their staying power. Even without winning the top jobs, they pointed to their expansion and councils as evidence that they are now a permanent fixture in Bavarian politics. They are not a protest movement anymore, but an institution. That’s their spin on it.

Dan Harris: What about the other parties? Any signs of the Social Democrats or the Left Party? Where are they in all this?

Claudia Koestler: The SPD was sidelined and is becoming increasingly insignificant, but the Left and the Greens had some wins in certain towns and areas, so they are celebrating that as a comeback as a sign of momentum.

Dan Harris: Local issues, which were obviously predominant with obviously significant national issues and immigration topics, especially with the Alternative für Deutschland. But how much of this was a referendum on Merz himself?

Claudia Koestler: Well, they didn't really send a message directly to Merz, because people will have voted on very local issues and topics like streets, infrastructure, schools, anything a local council can or should decide. But every election is also a message and a litmus test for the tiers above, to the Prime Minister Markus Söder to Chancellor Friedrich Merz. But even more so, I’d say, to the EU. We have seen and heard tougher stances on immigration and security in most middle ground parties as of lately, but the more they sound like the AfD, the more litigimacy they give to the AfD itself. If voters want a tough-on-immigration, nationalist, culturally conservative party, why not vote for the real thing? So the Bavarian results are in a way a warning to the CSU, to Merz, to the EU and to the world: mimicking the far right rhetoric doesn't stop the far right - it strengthens it. And for the broader political establishment, the left, center, moderate, right, the message is clear: voters are frustrated, but they did not feel like they should go all the way and destroy what they have. There is worry, there is uncertainty. If the center doesn't offer compelling answers, the extremes will fill the void. We are not there yet, but this is clearly on the horizon, something to watch out for.

Dan Harris: I saw recently some polling that shows across various countries the US, the UK, France and Germany the element of trust in democratic institutions. And the trust in the US is very low at the moment, whereas Germany has - out of those countries i just mentioned - the highest levels of trust. They value their institutions very much and what you're saying there seems to bear out in the in the results. So two questions and then we should we probably wrap it up: What does the rest of Germany think, and the EU, are they shaking in their boots at all from these results?

Claudia Koestler: No one is shaking in their boots. But they are gathering strength to tackle the big big question and that is how to deal with the AfD. Because you can clearly now see it's not just the protest party anymore, it is a permanent political force. The far right is embedding itself locally. This isn't about leaders or national protest votes anymore, the AfD is building grassroots networks, it's winning council seats, it's normalizing its presence in everyday politics. That’s the playbook we've seen in France, we've seen that in Italy, in the Netherlands, in Austria … But so far you can say that the Bavarian voters sort of at least kept them at bay. And that means that they are seeing what far-right governments or coalitions are doing in the world and they are not seeing results they particularly like. And that sends a clear message even over to the Atlantic. The other thing to take away from this election: the so-called firewall - the Brandmauer - is under pressure. The democratic parties pledged never to cooperate with the AfD, but now at the local level, where coalitions are fragile and majorities are slim, that promise is hard to keep and that's what's being discussed here. Once a CSU mayor works with an AfD counselors on a budget or infrastructure project, it stops feeling exceptional. It starts feeling normal, and normalization is exactly what the far right needs to gain legitimacy and this is what we all have to watch out for.

Dan Harris: To our viewers, if they've watched our episodes - which we hope they have - we are a pro-democracy podcast here and and Claudia and I have these discussions about the AfD, the Reform Party, obviously Maga in the United States … and one of the telling questions is how is Claudia sleeping at night? Is she worried, is it keeping her up? Because she does tell me every so often „i just …oh i just .. you know“…

Claudia Koestler: I just don´t sleep anymore.

Dan Harris: That´s probably the solution: just don't go to sleep. Stay tuned for more, but thank you, Claudia. This is great to hear your perspective on the local elections in Bavaria and elsewhere. Thank you for tuning in. Don't forget to like, subscribe, share this, and comment below and tell us what you think of the elections coming up. They may have happened in your country, but if elections are coming up in your country, let us know. Let us know the dynamics of what's happening there and the democratic forces that are trying to keep at bay those anti-democratic forces, because that's a real big concern of us all here - and it does keep me up at night, I have to say. Anyway, thank you very much. Claudia, any final word?

Claudia Koestler: Well, if you are up at night anyway, listen to a good podcast.

Dan Harris: That's right, yeah, tune in Over Here, Over There. Thank you and bye-bye.

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