The Bitey End of the Dog
A podcast dedicated to helping dogs with aggression issues. Michael Shikashio CDBC chats with experts from around the world on the topic of aggression in dogs!
The Bitey End of the Dog
What Really Predicts Dog Bites? With Dr. Helen Howell
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You can’t “test” your way to certainty about whether a dog will bite—and provoking a dog during an assessment may tell us very little about the risk that dog presents in the real world.
In this episode, I’m joined by Dr. Helen Howell, a forensic behaviorist and expert witness who works on serious injury and fatality cases. We talk about what a modern dog bite risk assessment should look like when the goal is not only to assess risk, but also to identify practical ways to reduce it.
Helen brings a unique combination of experience to this work, including 16 years as a police officer and detective, along with her background in clinical animal behavior. Her approach asks us to look beyond the dog and consider the entire picture: the environment, daily management, human behavior, training history, predictability and routine, as well as the caregiver’s ability and willingness to manage risk.
We also discuss why provocative assessments can be both ethically concerning and scientifically unreliable. Helen explains how structured professional judgment—a model used in forensic psychology—can provide a more consistent, evidence-based way to assess whether a dog presents a low, moderate, or high risk while still accounting for the individual circumstances of each case.
Helen walks us through the DBR24, which considers 24 risk factors along with the potential impact of a bite, and the DBR Triage tool, designed to help nonspecialists recognize possible risks in homes with children or vulnerable people. We also explore factors such as pain, aversive methods, inconsistent training, human behavior, and the limitations created by poorly recorded dog bite data.
If you work with aggression, human-directed aggression, legal cases, or dog bite prevention, this conversation offers a thoughtful and practical framework for assessing risk while improving safety and welfare for both dogs and people.
About Helen:
https://www.dogbehaviourexpert.co.uk/
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AggressiveDog.com
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Meet A Forensic Behavior Expert
SPEAKER_01In this episode of the Bitey End of the Dog, I'm joined by Dr. Helen Howell, a forensic behaviorist and expert witness whose work focuses on some of the most serious and complex cases involving dogs. Helen brings a rare perspective to the field, combining a background in law enforcement with advanced academic research in animal behavior. Before becoming a clinical animal behaviorist, Helen spent 16 years working as a police detective, much of that time assigned to a child protection unit. After retiring from policing due to injury, she shifted her focus towards animal behavior, eventually working with dogs across a wide range of environments around the world. Today, Helen's work centers largely on serving as an expert witness in dangerous dog cases involving serious injury or fatality. In this conversation, we explore what goes into evaluating these incidents, the challenges of assessing risk, and how professionals can move beyond simplistic explanations when trying to understand why bites occur. We also discuss the research Helen completed with her PhD at the University of Lincoln, where she developed evidence-based guidance for assessing dog bite risk. Her work proposes a more holistic and ethically grounded framework aimed at improving both prediction and prevention of dog bite incidents.
Training Resources And Conference Plug
SPEAKER_01And before we jump into today's episode, a quick heads up. If you're looking to learn more about helping dogs with aggression issues, head on over to aggressivedog.com. For pet professionals, there's the Aggression and Dogs Master Course, which is the most comprehensive program available on aggression, packed with expert insights and continuing education credits. For dog guardians, check out Real Life Solutions, a practical course covering everyday challenges like leash reactivity and dog-to-dog aggression. You can also join the Ultimate Access membership for just $29 a month, which gives you access to expert webinars, live mentor sessions, and exclusive discounts. And don't forget to check out the Canis Conference happening this October in Schaumburg, Illinois, with the world's largest conference dedicated to dog behavior, training, science, veterinary care, dog sports, set work, and shelter and rescue. Now let's jump into this conversation with Helen.
Why Bite Risk Testing Falls Short
SPEAKER_01Hey everyone, welcome back to the Biting End of the Dog. This week we are talking about how to determine if a dog's going to bite, but in a much more systematic and robust way. And I've got the amazing doctor, Helen Howell, here with us to talk about this because this has been her life for the last for quite a bit. We were talking just before the show started, and I can't. I'm very impressed with how much she's put into this. So welcome to the show, Helen.
SPEAKER_02Thank you, Michael. Yes, it has.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that's I mean, that's an amazing amount of time to be spending on helping us as dog professionals as well as the public in this topic of dog bites, which is obviously the focus of the show. And, you know, I think historically over the years, we've seen different ways trainers might say, oh yeah, this dog could bite, or, you know, and we're usually looking at the dog side of things. So, okay, we have a particular breed of dog or a dog that's been through certain experiences, and we say, okay, this dog may be likely to bite again, but it's it's been, let's face it, all over the place with how we assess risk and the different tests out there and how different trainers have developed their own, but nothing's been standardized by any means. So what what made you focus on this? What was your passion for this?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so so like you say, um, historically, we've kind of really focused on the dog when we're looking at dog bite risk. And the reason that I started this work is when I became an expert witness for um for legal cases, I was kind of really, I started to see lots of different assessments and how they were generally done in that field. And I was really concerned about the consistency of different assessment methods and the validity of them. And also, to be honest, um, I had concerns about how ethical the some of the practices that I saw were. So I wanted to like dive deeper into it and decided that it'd be a really good idea to contact Daniel Mills at Lincoln. Um, and so that's how how we embarked on the PhD, and they'd had some conversations at Lincoln about assessing dog white risk and the methods used, and I guess it was just good timing that I came along and had this particular interest and my role as an expert witness put me in a position to really understand that field well, and so that's how it started. But yeah, it's traditionally we've always focused on the dog, and it felt wrong for me when I started doing my assessments as an expert to just put that much emphasis on the dog in a really sterile environment. So I wanted to just find a better way because I knew there was a better way of doing it, and I wanted to set a standard that meant that we were all considering all of the things that are important rather than just what we think as an individual to be important. So that's where the project started.
SPEAKER_01Yes, yeah, I'm so glad you're talking about this because it's it's so problematic when we rely on our own biases and our own experience and not have not we're not looking at any kind of science or data, and we're just like relying on, okay, this is what I've seen in the past, and that's usually a very small picture of all the dog bites that happen out there, right? And uh some people that are listening to the show may not know your previous career, you were a detective. So, and we were kind of chatting about that. That's kind of how I look at cases too. So you know, you have to not just look at the dog because sometimes people and this has happened to me. People have contacted me like we need you to evaluate a dog, and they want me to come out to their location, and they expect me probably to do certain things, like I don't know, uh antagonize the dog or work with the dog or interact with the dog to see what happens. But that doesn't give us the information we need usually. It's it might give us a piece of the picture, but what's gonna give us more of a picture is what happened there. Look at this the scene of the crime, so to speak, without calling dogs criminals, but you know, we look at where it happened. We look at the evidence, we look at we interview witnesses, we you know, we ask what the humans were doing, we we ask what the humans observed, we hope there's a security camera there, which is a lot of these days. But um, so I think that's a lot of where your your approach is is kind of bled into this. Would you say that's true, like your past experience?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, for sure. So um I was a detective, um, I was a police officer for 16 years. So obviously I've carried some of that with me in my role as an expert witness. Um, and then when we started to decide how we were going to create a risk assessment tool that was valid and predictive, we needed to find out what the science said initially about the factors that can increase risk, rather than, as you said, our own personal biases. Um, so the research team included Professor Todd Hogue, who's a forensic psychologist. So we had his insight as well, which was interesting because he's not a dog behaviour professional. So it was great to have his input on it. And it made us look at things without bias because we had his input as well. So we did we did some systematic researches of the scientific literature to find out what the science says are risk factors for human-directed aggression towards from dogs. And what we found was that there are factors, obviously, that's very specific to the dog, things like the dog's previous learning history, where the dog came from, any previous trauma, things like that. But there were more factors that related to the people around the dog and the environment than the dog itself. So it doesn't really make sense to put all our focus on just on just the dog. So by carrying out, so traditionally in in the UK, provocative tests have been used for legal assessments. So things like using the assessor hands to do a food guarding test and seeing how a dog reacts to startle and shouting at the dog and seeing how it responds. So those sorts of provocative tests have been used predominantly in legal cases in the UK for assessment. But that doesn't make sense when we know we've pulled out the research, and actually more of the stuff relates to the people in the environment than the dog and how the dog behaves in a very sterile assessment. So that's how we kind of started, and we also identified as part of that that there were some gaps in the research that we needed to um look at because it's quite difficult to want to research aggression because clearly we can't go around making dogs bite people. So it's quite that it's a difficult area to research. So we also asked professionals working with dogs what they're, in their opinion, factors that might increase the risk of a dog biting people. And we paired that up with what we knew in the research, and a lot of the things were were the same, but the professionals also identified some areas that the science hasn't really looked at yet. So we've used that, and hopefully that will inform some future research to kind of look at evidence for factors that haven't been studied so far, but professionals think are important. So that's how we started to build our tool. And yeah, it was being that detective in me wanting to find all the evidence that started that process.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's interesting too when you really think about it. You know, it's like if if we're determining why uh somebody might have robbed somebody in the street or something, and you're the detective, you're not gonna test it, right? We don't need to see the behavior again. Or please, here's a knife, you know, please take it out, and I'm gonna be holding my wallet or something. Let's, I mean, I'm gonna walk by. Let's see if you try to stab me again, right? That's not that's not how it's done, right? We're gonna look at the evidence, we're gonna look at the all the uh information we can gather without having to see the crime or the bite again,
Structured Judgment Replaces Provocative Tests
SPEAKER_01right? Um, so let's let's get into the tools here. The the the different tools you've developed and where they're at now. Uh if you can kind of walk us through, you have something called the DBR24 and then also a DBR triage. So let's uh maybe start with the DBR24 and explain to the listeners what that is and sort of uh some of the components of it.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so what we've done is we've taken a different approach. So one of the problems that um have been identified in the in the science of looking at dog bite assessments is kind of the validity of the tools that people have used in the past. So assessments that have been done in shelters, for example, there was some work done by um Gary Patronek and Janice Bradley, and they they wrote a lovely paper about how predictive the types of assessment that are used in shelters are likely to be. And generally they're not great. So in the field of forensic psychology, for the assessment of the risk of human violence, they use there are different methods, but one of the most commonly used methods is structured professional judgment. And what that is, it's not like a tick-box exercise because a question's far too complex for that, right? It's so nuanced that we can't. I I personally don't think we have sufficient evidence to just create a point scoring type scheme for assessing dogs. Um and structured professional judgment guides professionals through all of the factors that there is evidence for as being important when we're trying to make a risk judgment. But it takes into account dynamic factors, things that can change. So, for example, if a dog is risky in one environment, if it was moved to a different home, would it pose the same risk? Um, and it allows for that, the expert that's making that assessment to pull out all of the things that that could alter to mitigate risk. So it identifies risk reduction strategies, and then the professional can make, using their using all of that evidence that they found, make their own judgment as to whether the dog poses a low, a moderate, or a high risk. And it can be reviewed over time. So, as I've said, for example, if a dog has some behaviour modification work with a professional, the the risk may drop as a consequence of that work, their emotional response to the thing that triggered the behaviour may change, and then they may their risk status might drop to low, where it was a moderate risk before. So the use of structured professional judgment is a consistent way, an evidence-based way of consistently assessing risk, but it still allows the professional to take into account the individual dog circumstances. So that's the model that we've used. The DBR24 is our main risk assessment tool, and that consists of 24 risk items and three items that they consider the impact that a bite may have if one occurs. Because when we're looking at the severity of an incident, we're looking at that separately to the likelihood of something happening. Because, for example, my little Chihuahua cross, if she bites, the likelihood of me receiving a significant injury is a lot less than my previous dog, my great Dane, if he had bitten me. So the chances of them biting is very different to the damage that they would do if they bite. So what the DBR24 does is it looks at the likelihood and the severity of any incident should it happen, and that's when the professional makes a judgment based on those factors together. So that's the main the main risk assessment tool.
A Doorway Bite Case Walkthrough
SPEAKER_01Can let's um can we role play here a little bit? So just so we can kind of create a picture of how it might be used. So let's say you're assessing my case, and it's um uh let's say that there's been some legal proceedings and there's you know somebody's gotten bitten. It's my uh Doberman, since I have Doberman's. Uh let's say it's my Doberman, and uh it's so we're talking about HDDA here for the listeners, which stands for human-directed dog aggression. So just as a little side note, but eight, let's say it's an HDDA case where my Doberman had bit a person coming to the door to sell me solar panels, right? So he's being a good dog. Um, but so somebody's you know coming home and you know, the person comes to the front door, I open the front door, uh, my dog is right next to me, and so for some reason, um the solar salesperson comes into the home and tries to like uh not shove his way in, but like reaches in and tries to reach for my dog, and my dog jumps up and bites him on the hand, and it leaves some uh small puncture wounds, but that required medical care, so that's why it's gone to the you know, the in the US the animal control officer gets involved and things like that. So um, if you were to ask me some questions, for instance, uh to help you start to formulate uh what kind of risk this is, what would they, what would it look like?
SPEAKER_02So the uh we'd start with a history of the dog. Um, so where your dog came from, where was your dog? Yeah. Um so you wouldn't know whether your dog was born in a a domestic environment or a commercial breeding establishment. Probably a breeding.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, cropped and docked before when I adopted him. So let's just assume that.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Um so I'd want to know does your dog have any medical conditions or any unmanaged health needs? Is he fit and well? Has he had any trauma?
SPEAKER_00Very healthy.
SPEAKER_02He's very healthy.
SPEAKER_00No trauma. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Um, and then I'd want to understand a little bit about um have you done any training with him at all?
SPEAKER_01Uh let's say I was um this was early on in my career, and I was studying to do some group classes, so some very basic training, sit-down stay. Um using uh let's say 20 years ago I was using some coercive technique, so using like a slip lead for training in my early stages, hypothetically.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Um and where does your dog uh spend most of his day? Because I'd like to know, do is your dog included in family life? Does he spend much time um in a different room, in a crate, or anything like that?
SPEAKER_01He's up my butt all day. Can't stay away from me more than two feet because he either wants something to eat or he wants some petting.
SPEAKER_02Okay, and and does he get much exercise?
SPEAKER_01Um probably not enough, but he gets a decent amount because my wife takes him out for walks.
SPEAKER_02Okay, and do you think that he is a dog that is does pose a risk to people, or do you think this is just a one-off?
SPEAKER_01It's the first time it ever happened. I don't understand why it did, but first time he ever did something like that. And he's about uh he was about three years old at the time of the incident.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Um and do you have any other animals in the house?
SPEAKER_01A cat. And they get along fine.
SPEAKER_02And are there any children living in that in the house?
SPEAKER_01Uh a 12-year-old boy, let's say.
SPEAKER_02And is your house busy?
SPEAKER_01Do you have lots of people coming and going and not much, not much because I I work a lot. So I'm I'm not at home as much.
SPEAKER_02Um are you able to put in something in your home, some sort of barrier or um some some management that you think would prevent that happening in the future? So for example, is there a way that before your front door is open, your dog could be secured behind another barrier?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah, we can definitely use like a baby gate or uh uh some sort of other way to put them in a room if if somebody comes to try to sell solar panels again.
SPEAKER_02And do you think that that's important to do, or do you think that it probably wouldn't happen again?
SPEAKER_01I'm not sure because I I don't like when people come to sell solar panels at my door. So some maybe I like it when my dog does that. So but I I think I don't want to, I would I don't want to get sued because I live in the US, so and that happens all the time. And I and my homeowner's insurance has already given me a hard time.
SPEAKER_02And would you be happy to work with a dog behaviorist to help make sure that something like this didn't happen again?
SPEAKER_01Oh yeah.
SPEAKER_02And do you have the means to do that? Do you have time for that?
SPEAKER_01Um I think I could squeeze it in.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Okay, so so that's me going through some of the questions that I would be asking to make an overall risk judgment um of your dog. So a lot of the questions you'll notice were about you and your attitude towards your dog. We've obviously looked at some of the dog's history, some medical stuff, some training stuff. I'd want to look at the environment. So one of the factors that's important is whether the environment is unpredictable for the dog. And when I do my assessments, I always go to the family home because there are things I can pick up just being in the family home as to whether I think that that environment might be a bit chaotic or whether their structure and routine. And so I'm looking at that. I'm looking at social isolation for dogs because that's a factor that can increase risk. So dogs that are spend, we know, are spending lots of time shut away in yards or crated all day, they pose a higher risk. But one of the main things is the owner's ability to manage the risk and to appreciate the risk. And that's a really important part of this risk assessment tool. It makes the professional not just focus on the dog and what it's done, but what can be put in place to reduce that risk and how willing the caregivers are to do that. Does that make sense?
Low Moderate High Risk Decisions
SPEAKER_01Absolutely. And I love how we were able to outline some of the things. Just a side note for the listeners, that is not a thorough review either, because uh we are pending publishing of that study, right? So um, so or the tool rather. So it's uh that's a very uh abbreviated version. I did want to note that. So you had mentioned we're not assigning like a point score, so like on a scale of zero to ten, ten being the most risky, zero, uh because I think that's I think there's some issues with that as well. But So using your professional judgment as well as data and sci you know research that you would of course have to present in like a court case, how like what's the what's the outcome or what would you say, you know, and say uh like this dog is very risky or this, you know, Mike Stoberman is gonna be totally fine, or so like what is the uh what's the word I'm looking for? Not the the not the score, but what do you say like in a court case? But like, okay, so Helen, Dr. Howe, what do you think about this case? What do you think about Mike Stoberman and and what the potential is here?
SPEAKER_02So I would make a risk, a risk judgment of the dog being either low, moderate, or high risk. Um, in this case, I would say that with management strategies that I've identified, which would be an extra barrier, for example, before the front door is opened, the owner engaging with a behaviour professional to work out on the dog woman's behaviour when people enter the home. I would say that because Mike appreciates the risk that his dog poses, the dog would be of low risk with the management strategies in place. So the reason that we can't do the point scoring thing is so I, for example, I deal with fatalities in my work. And I've had cases where dogs have killed people or very, very seriously injured people. And if I went through and looked at what factors were there, what risk factors were present, there'd be very, very few factors that are present there. But clearly, a dog that's inflicted that level of injury, and I'm not talking about just a bite that unfortunately one single puncture wound has caused a death. I'm talking about, you know, serious maulings. Um, clearly, the dog's not going to be safe in society, so I could never say that the dog was a low-risk dog, despite the fact that it might only have one or two risk factors out of the 24 present. However, you can also have dogs, um, like my little dog, she'd have probably, I don't know, a good 15 factors that would it that risk factors present because of her background and her her previous experiences and just the way she is. But because she's with me and I manage that risk really well, and there are strategies in place, the environment that I live in, you know, there's no kids in my house, for example, then she's a much lower risk because of all the other stuff. So if you just had a point scoring up, she would have been euthanized, you know, but she's she's absolutely fine because of the way that I manage her. So that's why the point scoring thing doesn't work, and that's where structured professional judgment is really helpful because it it, although it makes the assessor consider everything that's relevant, there is still that scope for the assessor to apply their own judgment based on those individual circumstances.
Liability Limits And Clear Disclaimers
SPEAKER_01How do you navigate the legal landscape of an assessor uh making the assessment, high risk, low risk, or something like that, and then something turns in the future? Uh and I think that's one of the concerns with like scoring systems, because if I, as a professional, is like this dog's uh level two on a scale of one to ten terms of risk, may bite, but probably lower risk. But then that dog goes on to bite somebody at a high level or completely changes in their behavior. Um, have you seen any concerns about that for for professionals, especially in the US again, because people get sued for everything. Uh, what are your thoughts there?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so it's it's similar to the the way that it's dealt with in the field of human violence risk assessment. No professional can ever guarantee how a living being is going to behave. And and I write this in every single report. I before even before this risk assessment tool was developed, every single behaviour case that I've reported on in court, I always have a paragraph where I say no professional can 100% guarantee how this animal is going to behave in the future. And the assessment is made on using my professional judgment and the evidence-based risk assessment tool now. So on the risk assessment form of the report that goes to the court, it will always say that. And in the manual for the risk assessment tool, because to use this tool, you do need to have training, that you you do have to go to a training course to use it. That's made very clear, and in the manual, there's a whole spiel about how it's there there are no guarantees, none of us can guarantee anything, you know. And so that's how it's navigated legally is that we say that we we can't guarantee, but we've used an evidence-based, consistent tool to formulate a risk judgment.
SPEAKER_01And there's such a nice takeaway from this that is also thinking about the dog training world and what is promised. And you know, you and you mentioned there's no guarantees. And that's just as a side note for the listeners, and especially if you're a dog guardian experiencing those issues, when somebody guarantees you an outcome in your dog's behavior, run away because nobody can guarantee you, right? No, we can't.
SPEAKER_02And I have this, I have this in court. So sometimes, so I've been in court and and a judge has read out my paragraph where I say that you know, there isn't no professional should 100% guarantee how an animal is going to behave. And the judge, uh, like a few times this has happened to me, the judge has said, but you've you've said that you think this dog can go home, but you can't guarantee that it's not going to bite anybody. And I always say, no more can I guarantee that the dog won't bite anybody than I can guarantee that you're not going to lose your temper and punch somebody in the face for the rest of your life. I can't guarantee that. None of us can. So, you know, we it's we're dealing with behaviour.
SPEAKER_01Do you ever get it? You're in contempt of court. No, they're not, to be fair.
SPEAKER_02To be fair, they normally go, Well, yeah, I see what you're saying. Um I think as long as you've you're all you're clear and transparent, if you've used an evidence-based tool to come to your risk judgment, then you've done everything you can. And I think that's that's something that we've been missing, is we haven't had any real evidence-based risk assessment models so far that have been developed. So now I mean I feel much stronger to stand up in court and say, I've made my assessment using an evidence-based risk assessment model rather than what was used, what's been used so far, which is unstructured clinical judgment. And in the field of psychology, they've researched that and they know that that is unlikely to be accurately predictive of risk. Whereas there is a much higher chance of a good prediction using an evidence-based model.
SPEAKER_01And
Triage Tool For Child Safeguarding
SPEAKER_01I want to jump into that evidence as well and some of the research behind this, but uh, let's quickly just touch on the DBR triage tool, which is more for uh dog guardians and safeguarding risk to children. Is that correct?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so the the triage tool is is a safeguarding, a dog bite safeguarding tool. So it's designed for people that aren't dog behaviour professionals who might be going into family homes where there are kids and dogs, and they might just feel a little bit uncomfortable or feel that there's something not right or there's a risk to children or vulnerable people in the home. And this tool was originally developed, we we would develop it for the RSPCA in the UK for their inspectors who enter family homes to do animal welfare checks where they feel that there might be a risk from to children in the home. So that's where it came from originally. And it's a much shorter tool. I think there are 11 items on it, and they're things that people can see without having to ask lots of questions. So obviously, when we do a behaviour consult or when a professional was doing this, the main risk assessment model, there'd be lots of questions asked about the dog's history, normal family life. Um, but this, what we've done is we've pulled out the risk factors and looked at what we can see in the environment, clues in the environment that might tell us whether the risk factors are present. So, for example, one of them is the owner's ability to manage the dog safely. So that could be that when the police officer knocks on the door to do some house-to-house inquiries, for example, and the dog is just allowed to run out, run into the street, jump up all over him. Uh, owner's struggling to manage him, trying to get hold, can't get hold of the dog, can't get hold of the dog behind the closed kitchen door or whatever. So you don't need to ask questions to be able to see that. And that's obviously a risk factor. So that the triage tool doesn't require a knowledge of dog behaviour. And what it does is it allows people to make a referral for a more comprehensive assessment by a professional that is trained in the main big risk assessment tool, or a referral to in the UK it would be social services if they have concerns about the safety of children in the home. So that's what the triage tool is.
SPEAKER_01Amazing.
Publication Timeline And Training Rollout
SPEAKER_01And and these are not uh so the date of the recording of this podcast is in March, and probably gonna you guys listening will be hearing this in June or July or something like that. But uh when do you anticipate these tools to be available for use for our professionals and the general public?
SPEAKER_02So we're just in the process. We've had a paper published today, earlier this morning, which was great. We've got another one that's in submission, and then one more to follow, which hopefully will be published by the end of this year. And then we can start rolling out some training courses to train people to use the um big risk assessment tool and the DBR triage tool. I'm in the process of trying to arrange a pilot scheme with uh the Merseyside Dog Safety Partnership. So I'm hoping that they will pilot the triage tool. And yeah, hopefully, so hopefully by the end of the year, we should be able to start training people. And we've had lots of interest from all over the world. I have a lady in New Zealand that's particularly interested in it as well. And yeah, it's just a matter of we just have to publish the papers in a certain order because that's the way that my thesis ran. So one thing leads into another. So the paper that's come out today is about the principles of using structured professional judgment for the assessment of dog bite risk. The one that's in publication is our study of professional opinion about risk factors, and then the next one is the actual DBR24 tool. We did an interrated reliability study to see how professionals rated dogs, whether they rated the same risk, overall risk rating using the tool based on some scenarios, and that was really promising. So that's what that paper will talk about.
SPEAKER_01Amazing. I I have so much gratitude to you and Dr. Mills right now because uh this is something that's been missing in my career forever, and uh I just I cannot wait for it to get into the mainstream, you know, because it's gonna, I think, really elevate the industry, especially around aggression cases. So uh this is me giving you a thanks in advance. Um and uh now I want to jump into the to the research and the evidence we were talking about, but we're gonna take a quick break to hear word from our sponsors, and we'll be right back.
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SPEAKER_01Dog training carries real responsibility. Trainers influence behavior, well-being, and the lives of dogs, as well as the people and communities that care for them. Doing that work safely and effectively requires more than experience alone. It requires demonstrated professional competence. Founded in 2001, the Certification Council for Professional Dog Trainers serves as an independent credentialing organization in a largely unregulated industry. CCPDT establishes and upholds industry-recognized minimum professional standards of practice and provides an objective way for trainers to demonstrate competence and accountability to the public. Those standards are upheld by CCPDT credentials, earned through psychometrically validated exams that assess applied knowledge and are maintained through continuing education and adherence to enforceable standards. Earning or maintaining a CCPDT credential is a choice. It reflects a commitment to professional standards and to the long-term credibility of dog training as a profession. If you believe dog training is a profession and that professional competence should be visible and trusted, learn more about CCPDT certification and standards at ccpdt.org. Alright,
Research Strength And Data Gaps
SPEAKER_01I'm back here with Dr. Helen Howe. We've been talking about dog bite risk assessments, and now I want to jump into you know some of the research behind, so some of the evidence that you've used to establish the validity of these tools. So some things are are have been well established and researched, especially when we're talking about the human behavior, the human side of what causes dog bites, so um things like uh the where a dog comes from or what the what type of uh methods the person might be using with the dog. So we're talking about the human side. Um, you know. So can can you talk us through some of that and some of the things that are so we'll talk about the things that you feel are like, yeah, there's consensus around this, and then there's other things that not so much.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so when we looked at all the research, like I said, it's quite a difficult area to research because as I said, ethically, we can't just make dogs bite people and um so and the pro one of the problems is when we're looking at things that we can test. I guess if a dog's a high-risk dog, right? That dog's not likely to be spending its time back in the public domain. So it's hard. It's you do you understand what I mean? It's because the dog's likely to be euthanized if it's a really high-risk dog. So the whole area is really difficult to research. But there is quite solid evidence for some risk factors, and probably the most evidence it was in terms of the use of punishment, physical punishment, and aversive training methods and confrontational training methods. But more importantly, actually, we found that inconsistent training methods were really hugely important, found to be hugely important. So, and and that's likely as a consequence of dogs becoming frustrated because they don't know whether they're doing the right thing or not. So inconsistency was really important. Now, what we know is that we can't say for sure that it causes the problem because finding the causative links is really difficult, but we know that there is a significant increase in human-directed aggression from dogs that are trained with aversive training methods. Now, you can argue that the dog might have been displaying those behaviour before that training started. So the reason the person started using the prong collar, for example, is because their dog was biting everyone when it was walking past. So there's like a lot of ambiguity. But that's been researched a lot, so we are quite confident with that risk factor. There is other things where there's research conducted but not so much, and the evidence is weaker. But when we've asked our professionals, they've kind of agreed with the evidence that is reported in the literature, like for example, the presence of pain is another good one. So we know that frequently where dogs have expressed human-directed dog aggression, there's been an underlying medical condition or pain that hasn't been treated or managed appropriately. And there's there's a fair bit of evidence for that. We know that the experience of the owner is important as well. So inexperienced dog owners are more likely to have dogs that express humour-indirected dog aggression. And that's there is some evidence of that in the scientific literature, but also our professionals agree with that. But what was really interesting is in the literature there's not much work done on how an owner's understanding or a caregiver's understanding of dog behaviour and dog communication affects the risk of aggression. So in the research, there isn't a great deal about it. There is some work about the ability of adults and children to read dog body language and the ability of children, for example, to understand different signals from the dog. But there really isn't any research on how influential that is on the expression of human-directed dog aggression. So when we did our survey professionals, a huge amount of professional opinion was that that was one of the most important factors. And I guess, and I think us as professionals working with owners, we probably agree, right? Like that that's super, super important because those owners that understand dog behaviour and understand what their dogs are trying to say generally will get their dogs out of the situation that's causing the dog stress or fear and the and or frustration to reduce that likelihood of a bite. But that's really not researched very much. So hopefully somebody will research that now.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. So, and that has me thinking about how the data is is collected. You know, so like a qualitative analysis versus quantitative, and and and you have these arguments. I see these these thoughts come up, you know, uh owner surveys and things like that. Like, how do you really know? And it's so subjective and the experience, and there's arguments, especially when it comes down to uh using punishment or not. And so, what are your thoughts on that? If you can just give it like your it's sort of going off topic a little bit, but I did want to kind of mention that in this conversation because there is there's going to be, you know, people saying, oh well, you can't really know because this it's an owner survey, a bunch of owner surveys, and we don't know truly what happened. So what are your thoughts on that?
SPEAKER_02Yeah. And that's one of the problems. When we did our systematic review, we looked at all of the different methodologies that were used, and you do have to take into account when owners are reporting the the dog's behaviour, that that might not be accurate. It's just such a complex area to research. So one of the big problems is that where the dog bite data, certainly in the UK, isn't recorded very well. So trying to find out what factors influence the risk of a dog biting is really complex when we haven't even got the proper data that we need to, we don't even know how many dog bites are occurring in the UK. So the way that we did our systematic review is we graded the reports on the we kind of did an assessment of the methodologies that were used and how reliable they were likely to be. And where you might get five different studies that all have different methodologies, they might not be the best, but they all come to the same conclusion, that increases our um the strength of that evidence for that risk factor. So that's what we took into account is how many of these surveys that have all been done in a different way, different studies, some using behaviour clinics, some using surveys of owners, but they all come to the same conclusion. Even though the individual research might not have been the best methodology, when they're all come to the same conclusion, that kind of boosts the strength of that evidence. So that's what we looked at when we pulled out all these risk factors. We took into account the quality of the evidence as well.
SPEAKER_01Excellent. Now,
Human Factors That Raise Bite Risk
SPEAKER_01let's talk a little bit more. I know we touched upon it already, but I want to talk a little bit more about the the human side and what humans do that increase the risk of a dog bite, you know. And and this is something you've researched extensively and it's been it's in your papers, but uh let's for the audience cover some of those things uh that are evidence-based as well, like in terms of this is probably going to cause a dog bite if you engage in this activity as a human, right? And because we've again so much of what we see is focused on the dog, okay, this breed or you know, this dog's past, and which is important. It's all important information. But uh I think big picture from an educational standpoint. This is something I was talking about with Janice Bradley. As well, and uh you were talking about Gary, who's awesome people, and um there we were talking about uh we so much focus on dog, but we forget about educating the people about hey, and and it's not to say that education's not out there, I just think it's it's there's could be a lot more, right? So so like the most common risk factors that do have data behind them, what would you say they are if you want to rattle some of those off?
SPEAKER_02So the unpredictability is a really big one. Yeah. That's whether that be through in unpredictable training methods or unpredictability in the environment. So in family homes, for example, if it's a if it's a chaotic environment where there's no real routine, that can increase risk. Because, you know, our dogs love routine, right? Because it brings them some security, they know what's happening when. If you've got lots of shouting and screaming, for example, in a home and it's just generally chaotic, that can increase risk. And there is some research on that, but not a huge amount. We know that the inappropriate management of social interactions is likely to increase risk. So dogs that are allowed to approach people willy-nilly, that there is no management in place, dogs that are allowed to engage in fights with other dogs when the owner may already know that the dog is reactive, for example, those sorts of interactions, inappropriate interactions with children, allowing children to climb on dogs, climbing crates with dogs, they're likely to increase the risk of a dog biting. And there is, there was, in fact, I think in one of Gary's papers, Gary Patronek's papers, he he put in he was looking at fatalities and inappropriate management of interactions was was important there as well. Yeah, so I think in terms of a lot of the people stuff, the people factors are professionals felt they they told us about a lot more factors relating to people than the science tell us. So that was quite interesting.
SPEAKER_01Um just to back up a step too to again the people in their unpredictability, right, which I 100% agree with. I've seen that in so many cases when somebody's you know yelling at one time or you know, petting their dog at one time in the same context, right? So the dog's like, what is going on? I don't know what to expect out of you today. And that can cause a lot of frustration and anxiety and stress. But um, what other human variables do you think we can, you know, and and we have to be careful not to use labels necessarily, but of course, when we're talking about human psychology, there's some of those labels do enter the picture. So higher impulsivity or uh lower emotional stability, higher neuroticism are some of the things that I s I've seen in some of the research. Would you say it's accurate and and can we use those terms in in our assessments?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so the way that we've labeled that in um so what we did was we did a bit of a thematic analysis of all of the factors and to turn them into a usable tool. And the way that we've kind of labelled that particular aspect is an owner's confidence or anxiety around the dog. So if the owner is an anxious type of owner, generally, whether that be in general terms or around managing their dog, that can increase risk. Whereas those owners that are really confident, and I say this like cautionary, because you can have the overconfidence where no, my dog's brilliant, he would never do anything wrong, I've got him under control. Um, but generally, people that are confident with their dog that lowers the risk. So the terms that are used in the research, like you say, are neuroticism and things like that. But we've kind of dulled that down in a way, it's all included in our in our risk factor, but we've termed it anxious owner. And the other thing we have is the strong dog owner bond, which looks at how empathetic an owner may be towards their dog, because that's something that's been researched quite a lot. So we know that owners that are more empathetic and have a good bond with their dog, and it's a mutual, a mutual relationship. So the dog might look to the owner for comfort. Um, the owner's always mindful of how the dog may be perceiving the situation and making sure that their needs are met. So that owner empathy, we label that as a dog owner bond, and that's one of our risk factors if there's a good bond there.
SPEAKER_01Because that's gonna address a lot of areas too when somebody's apathetic. So they're gonna meet the dog's needs, is that's which is the opposite of neglect. They're gonna understand behaviors and and and not get uh inconsistently punishing the dog for something that you know the dog's just trying to communicate. So yeah, they're touching the thing. Meeting the welfare needs.
SPEAKER_02Yes, yeah, the meeting the welfare needs is another really important one. So do they recognize what what needs the dog has? Are they able to meet those? Whether that be whether do they have the time, the financial resources, or the cognitive ability to meet the needs of the dog and recognize the needs? That's another factor that's really important in our risk assessment tool. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Excellent.
Where DBR Tools Should Be Used
SPEAKER_01So, what are your hopes in the next five years where you see this going? You know, big picture now, stepping back and saying, Helen, would like to see this tool used everywhere or in these cases. Like, what's your wish list here?
SPEAKER_02So I would really love my first aim, is to, I guess, because of my current role as an expert witness, I would love to see it used in all expert reports for court. Um, in the way that risk assessment models are used, evidence-based risk assessment models are used in forensic psychology for assessing human violence risk for legal proceedings. So that's my first wish, really, and that was kind of my main aim when I started out on this research. But there's lots of other things that have come along the way. So I would love to see the triage tool used by social care professionals so that we can get interventions in place before dog bites happen in family homes. We know how many bites happen in family homes. It's a huge problem, and if we can flag those risks and put some intervention in that might prevent a bite, that would be amazing. So I'd love to see the triage tool used in social care and frontline with frontline police officers and things like that. I'd like to see the DBR24 used in shelter. There are some elements of it that are much harder to kind of establish in shelter environments because we don't know the background of the dog a lot of the time. But there are still a huge amount of risk factors on that list that can be taken into account to when making an assessment of how suitable a dog is to go into a particular home with a particular adopter. So some dogs might need an adopter to have that super, super understanding of dog behaviour, and they might need a specific environment which can reduce the risk. Some dogs might be really, really bomb-proof and can go and live in those high-rise buildings in New York and be absolutely fine with that. And this risk assessment tool pulls out all of that stuff. So I'd love to see it used in shelter as well. But the main whole point of it really is to just try and reduce dog bites, because we have a huge problem here in the UK with dog bites. And if we can kind of put strategies in place before bites happen, then uh that's the way forward, and that's where I'd like to see it used.
SPEAKER_01Yes,
Improving The Model With New Data
SPEAKER_01yes. I and I love the forward thinking, especially about the human side, because again, as industry professionals and trainers, we often focus on getting the dogs that are that are gonna be less likely to buy. So we've a lot of the conversations that I had Kate Dalman on the podcast this season, too, talking about uh conscientious breeding. So thinking about how we're breeding dogs for behavior and and where we're sourcing dogs from. And a lot again, the focus goes on the dogs, but we need to think about the humans, right? And what the humans are doing. So I think selfishly, I would love to see the data, you know, and I'm I'm assuming you'll be collecting data or like having some way of like pulling reports and saying, okay, this this person, this professional trained on the DBR24, assessed X amount of cases, and we saw this outcome following up in a few years later to see how many dogs actually were like were meeting those, uh fitting into those uh assessments and saying, well, hey, see, now we've got a ton of data that says this is why, you know, yeah, these risk factors are going to be showing. Yeah, we said, yeah, it's a high risk, and we pointed out the factors, and sure enough, that's what happened, and low risk, you know. So I see a lot of really useful data coming out that's going to allow us as professionals to educate the general public even further. Be like, these are, you know, we've talked about it, but these are definitely now we're really seeing that these are the variables you need to consider as a as a dog guardian to avoid dog bites. I I just think it's so promising, and I'm so excited about it.
SPEAKER_02So I, you know, again, yeah, it's yeah, we've still got because that we're in the early stages of developing this tool, so we've still got lots of work to do. And as we start using it and collecting that data, like you say, which is obviously this is a long-term project, this is just the start. Yeah, we might be able to work out which factors are super important, which factors are less important, and we will, I've no doubt it's it's really common in um the human world to revise risk assessment models as you learn more and you can evaluate the data. So, yeah, so we what may well revise it as we learn more about how it works in practice and what's important.
SPEAKER_01Amazing.
SPEAKER_02But yeah, it's it's exciting for me, it's the start of everything. And and one of the biggest things really is using this method means that we don't need to be doing the provocative tests that we've been doing with dogs. Ethically, that's never sat comfortably with me doing those tests when I knew that they weren't really predictive. So I'm hoping that uh this will give people a better option, which is better for the dogs and more predictive of risk as well.
Where To Find Dr. Helen Howell
SPEAKER_01Yes, yes. Thank you so much for sharing uh all the information about the tools. I'm really looking forward to them again coming out. Um, where can people go to find you and learn more about everything you're doing?
SPEAKER_02So on Facebook, I'm Dr. Helen Howell, Dog Behavior Expert. My website is dogbehaviourexpert.co.uk. On Instagram, I am Dog BehaviourExpert. So you can find me there. And our papers, I will put them on my social media. So if you weren't interested, I'm gonna put a post on later on actually with the the one that's been published today. You can find them all on there, and I'll keep everyone updated with what's happening with it. And when we've got some training courses, we'll publicize that. We're going to create the DBR24, it's gonna have its own website, so we'll make everyone aware of that.
SPEAKER_01Fantastic. And I'll, you know, I'm gonna be willing to share that when it's ready. So um, thank you so much, Helen. I really appreciate you sharing your time and expertise with us today, and I hope to see you in the future.
SPEAKER_02Thank you.
SPEAKER_01It
Final Takeaways And Aggression Resources
SPEAKER_01was a real privilege speaking with Helen about the complex and often difficult work of evaluating serious dog bite cases. Her background in policing, combined with her expertise in animal behavior, offers a unique lens for understanding these incidents in a way that moves beyond blame and toward better analysis, risk assessment, and prevention. One of the key takeaways from this conversation for me is that dog bite incidents rarely have a single cause. Instead, they emerge from a combination of factors, including environment, human behavior, management practices, and the individual dog's history and emotional state. Approaching these cases with a structured, evidence-based framework can help us make more informed decisions that ultimately improve safety and welfare for both dogs and people. And if you're ready to go deeper into understanding and helping dogs with aggression, visit aggressivedog.com. Whether you're a professional or a dedicated dog guardian, you'll find everything from the Aggression and Dogs Master Course, which is the most comprehensive program of its kind, to expert-led webinars, informative articles, and the Canis Conference, happening this October in Schaumburg, Illinois, with both in-person and virtual options. Thanks for listening in, and as always, stay well, my friends.