{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":27.450000000000003,"endTime":29.090000000000003,"body":"I'd like to let you"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":27.450000000000003,"endTime":29.090000000000003,"body":"know that Aussie Med Ed is sponsored"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":29.090000000000003,"endTime":32.96,"body":"by OPC Health, an Australian supplier"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":29.090000000000003,"endTime":32.96,"body":"of prosthetics, orthotics, clinic"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":32.96,"endTime":37.36,"body":"equipment, compression garments,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":32.96,"endTime":37.36,"body":"rehabilitation devices for doctors,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":37.410000000000004,"endTime":40.64,"body":"physiotherapists, orthodists,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":37.410000000000004,"endTime":40.64,"body":"podiatrists and hand therapists."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":41.260000000000005,"endTime":44.359,"body":"If you'd like to know what OPC"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":41.260000000000005,"endTime":44.359,"body":"Health offers, visit opchealth."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":44.36,"endTime":46.039,"body":"com."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":46.039,"endTime":47.63,"body":"au and view their range online."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":47.91,"endTime":51.409000000000006,"body":"Medical statistics plays a fundamental"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":47.91,"endTime":51.409000000000006,"body":"role in shaping modern health care."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":51.730000000000004,"endTime":55.019000000000005,"body":"It's the foundation of evidence based"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":51.730000000000004,"endTime":55.019000000000005,"body":"medicine, allowing us to make informed"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":55.019000000000005,"endTime":58.725,"body":"decisions and Whether it's selecting the"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":55.019000000000005,"endTime":58.725,"body":"best treatment, evaluating the efficacy"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":58.725,"endTime":62.495000000000005,"body":"of interventions, or even understanding"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":58.725,"endTime":62.495000000000005,"body":"the risks and benefits for our patients."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":63.025,"endTime":65.684,"body":"In today's episode of Aussie Med"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":63.025,"endTime":65.684,"body":"Ed, we're looking at the world of"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":65.684,"endTime":69.98400000000001,"body":"medical statistics, exploring how it"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":65.684,"endTime":69.98400000000001,"body":"influences clinical guidelines, helps"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":69.985,"endTime":74.205,"body":"us critically evaluate research papers,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":69.985,"endTime":74.205,"body":"and informs everyday clinical practice."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":74.905,"endTime":78.325,"body":"We'll cover the essential statistical"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":74.905,"endTime":78.325,"body":"concepts every healthcare professional"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":78.325,"endTime":81.955,"body":"should be familiar with when reviewing"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":78.325,"endTime":81.955,"body":"research, from types of data and"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":81.955,"endTime":85.51400000000001,"body":"statistical concepts to more complex"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":81.955,"endTime":85.51400000000001,"body":"topics like hypothesis testing,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":85.775,"endTime":89.765,"body":"p values, confidence intervals,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":85.775,"endTime":89.765,"body":"and correlation vs causation."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":90.124,"endTime":94.055,"body":"We'll also talk about other study design,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":90.124,"endTime":94.055,"body":"the importance of sample size, and how to"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":94.055,"endTime":96.19500000000001,"body":"spot potential bias in research papers."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":96.875,"endTime":101.47500000000001,"body":"Badenoch, an anaesthetist who"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":96.875,"endTime":101.47500000000001,"body":"has a Masters in Biostatistics."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":101.794,"endTime":103.604,"body":"He's going to help us"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":101.794,"endTime":103.604,"body":"break it all down for you."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":103.605,"endTime":103.659,"body":"I'm Adam Badenoch."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":104.11,"endTime":106.55,"body":"Whether you're new to research or"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":104.11,"endTime":106.55,"body":"looking to refresh your knowledge,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":106.71000000000001,"endTime":109.19,"body":"this episode will give you tools"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":106.71000000000001,"endTime":109.19,"body":"to better understand and apply the"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":109.19,"endTime":110.52,"body":"evidence in your clinical practice."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":111.355,"endTime":112.745,"body":"Welcome to Aussie Med Ed."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":114.105,"endTime":117.355,"body":"G'day and welcome to Aussie Med Ed, the"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":114.105,"endTime":117.355,"body":"Australian Medical Education Podcast."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":117.615,"endTime":120.545,"body":"Designed with a pragmatic approach"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":117.615,"endTime":120.545,"body":"to medical conditions by interviewing"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":120.545,"endTime":121.84400000000001,"body":"specialists in the medical field."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":122.44500000000001,"endTime":125.494,"body":"I'm Gavin Nimon, an orthopaedic"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":122.44500000000001,"endTime":125.494,"body":"surgeon based in Adelaide and I'm"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":125.495,"endTime":126.774,"body":"broadcasting from Kaurna Land."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":127.604,"endTime":131.175,"body":"I'd like to remind you that this"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":127.604,"endTime":131.175,"body":"podcast podcast players and is also"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":131.175,"endTime":132.875,"body":"available as a video version on YouTube."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":133.615,"endTime":136.515,"body":"I'd also like to remind you that if you"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":133.615,"endTime":136.515,"body":"enjoy this podcast, please subscribe"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":136.515,"endTime":139.88400000000001,"body":"or leave a review or give us a thumbs"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":136.515,"endTime":139.88400000000001,"body":"up as I really appreciate the support."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":139.88400000000001,"endTime":140.815,"body":"It helps the channel grow."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":141.435,"endTime":143.925,"body":"I'd like to start the podcast by"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":141.435,"endTime":143.925,"body":"acknowledging the traditional owners"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":143.925,"endTime":146.885,"body":"of the land on which this podcast"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":143.925,"endTime":146.885,"body":"is produced, the Kaurna people,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":147.265,"endTime":149.925,"body":"and pay my respects to the Elders"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":147.265,"endTime":149.925,"body":"both past, present and emerging."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":154.16500000000002,"endTime":157.28500000000003,"body":"Well, it's my pleasure now to introduce"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":154.16500000000002,"endTime":157.28500000000003,"body":"Dr Adam Badenoch, an aethetist"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":157.30399999999997,"endTime":160.14499999999998,"body":"trained in South Australia and who has"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":157.30399999999997,"endTime":160.14499999999998,"body":"specialized fellowships in difficult"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":160.15500000000003,"endTime":163.91500000000002,"body":"airway management, medical education"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":160.15500000000003,"endTime":163.91500000000002,"body":"and simulation, as well as hepatobiliary"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":164.385,"endTime":165.90500000000003,"body":"and liver transplant anesthesia."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":166.125,"endTime":169.324,"body":"In 2023, Adam earnt a"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":166.125,"endTime":169.324,"body":"Barstas by statistics."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":169.75,"endTime":172.70999999999998,"body":"from the University of Adelaide,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":169.75,"endTime":172.70999999999998,"body":"combining his clinical expertise"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":172.76999999999998,"endTime":176.48000000000002,"body":"with a deep interest in research,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":172.76999999999998,"endTime":176.48000000000002,"body":"statistics, and anesthesia specialties,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":176.7,"endTime":179.88,"body":"such as ENT, neuroanesthesia,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":176.7,"endTime":179.88,"body":"and liver transplant care."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":180.26,"endTime":182.279,"body":"Thanks Adam, thanks very much"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":180.26,"endTime":182.279,"body":"for coming on Aussie Med Ed."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":182.55,"endTime":185.24900000000002,"body":"Statistics has always been a very"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":182.55,"endTime":185.24900000000002,"body":"difficult and confusing concept for"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":185.24900000000002,"endTime":189.42000000000002,"body":"myself, probably because it confines both"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":185.24900000000002,"endTime":189.42000000000002,"body":"mathematics and some unusual concepts."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":189.53000000000003,"endTime":191.88,"body":"Can you please start off by"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":189.53000000000003,"endTime":191.88,"body":"explaining some basic key"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":191.88,"endTime":193.66000000000003,"body":"statistical concepts for everyone?"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":193.88,"endTime":196.18,"body":"Basic principles that people"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":193.88,"endTime":196.18,"body":"should be aware of and what they"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":196.18,"endTime":198.72000000000003,"body":"should know if they're trying"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":196.18,"endTime":198.72000000000003,"body":"to analyse medical research."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":199.37,"endTime":200.11,"body":"Sure, Gavin."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":200.20999999999998,"endTime":201.47000000000003,"body":"First of all, thanks for having me on."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":201.79000000000002,"endTime":207.29000000000002,"body":"I, at times, find statistics a bit"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":201.79000000000002,"endTime":207.29000000000002,"body":"confusing and complicated too, so don't"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":207.39999999999998,"endTime":209.56,"body":"worry, I think, if that's how you feel."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":209.7,"endTime":215.50900000000001,"body":"Lots of people are in the same boat, and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":209.7,"endTime":215.50900000000001,"body":"it definitely does cover some relatively"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":215.54000000000002,"endTime":219.23000000000002,"body":"unintuitive concepts or logic at times."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":219.32999999999998,"endTime":222.67000000000002,"body":"But I think you're right,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":219.32999999999998,"endTime":222.67000000000002,"body":"covering some basics often helps."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":223.11,"endTime":229.23000000000002,"body":"I think a few key concepts to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":223.11,"endTime":229.23000000000002,"body":"understand are what sort of data are"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":229.26,"endTime":231.20999999999998,"body":"there and how do we categorise it?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":231.51,"endTime":235.2,"body":"How can we describe"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":231.51,"endTime":235.2,"body":"different types of data?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":235.75900000000001,"endTime":240.16899999999998,"body":"And some basic concepts"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":235.75900000000001,"endTime":240.16899999999998,"body":"related to hypothesis testing."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":240.60899999999998,"endTime":246.39,"body":"So types of data can generally be"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":240.60899999999998,"endTime":246.39,"body":"classified into numerical or categorical."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":246.88,"endTime":251.71499999999997,"body":"And the numerical, uh, Uh, data can"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":246.88,"endTime":251.71499999999997,"body":"be further categorised into discrete"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":251.935,"endTime":258.695,"body":"or continuous data, and categorical"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":251.935,"endTime":258.695,"body":"data can, is often further delineated"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":258.704,"endTime":262.215,"body":"into nominal or ordinal categories."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":263.275,"endTime":267.34,"body":"A nominal categorical, uh, A"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":263.275,"endTime":267.34,"body":"categorical variable is simply one"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":267.34,"endTime":270.29,"body":"which has no logical order to it."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":270.55,"endTime":276.819,"body":"A good example might be hair colour, as"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":270.55,"endTime":276.819,"body":"opposed to an ordinal variable, which"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":276.819,"endTime":281.14,"body":"is categorical in nature, it categorises"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":276.819,"endTime":281.14,"body":"things, but they have a natural order to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":281.14,"endTime":284.219,"body":"them, such as small, medium and large."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":284.42,"endTime":290.28900000000004,"body":"In terms of the numerical data,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":284.42,"endTime":290.28900000000004,"body":"discrete data is data which"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":290.69,"endTime":292.36,"body":"essentially is like an integer."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":292.889,"endTime":296.56,"body":"Uh, it doesn't take on a continuous"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":292.889,"endTime":296.56,"body":"range of values, but it, it"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":296.56,"endTime":299.939,"body":"falls into discrete numbers."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":300.019,"endTime":305.099,"body":"Whereas continuous data is essentially"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":300.019,"endTime":305.099,"body":"a numerical representation of something"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":305.099,"endTime":311.099,"body":"which can theoretically be described"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":305.099,"endTime":311.099,"body":"as a entirely continuous process"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":311.129,"endTime":313.559,"body":"that can take on any specific value."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":314.22900000000004,"endTime":320.059,"body":"So if we think of continuous data,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":314.22900000000004,"endTime":320.059,"body":"we often describe it in terms of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":320.42400000000004,"endTime":324.374,"body":"It's central tendency, which is"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":320.42400000000004,"endTime":324.374,"body":"where the, the largest amount of the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":324.374,"endTime":332.334,"body":"data sits and how the data is spread"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":324.374,"endTime":332.334,"body":"around that area of central tendency."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":332.904,"endTime":336.444,"body":"So the, the most common ways to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":332.904,"endTime":336.444,"body":"describe central tendency would"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":336.444,"endTime":342.564,"body":"be mean, median, or mode, the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":336.444,"endTime":342.564,"body":"mode being the most common value."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":343.319,"endTime":349.759,"body":"The median being the 50th centile value"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":343.319,"endTime":349.759,"body":"and the mean having a number of different"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":349.769,"endTime":354.259,"body":"definitions but the usual arithmetic"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":349.769,"endTime":354.259,"body":"mean is simply the sum of all of the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":354.259,"endTime":356.559,"body":"values divided by the number of values."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":356.829,"endTime":361.49,"body":"Distribution can be described as a range"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":356.829,"endTime":361.49,"body":"from the lowest to the highest value."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":362.87,"endTime":368.409,"body":"You can describe subsets of that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":362.87,"endTime":368.409,"body":"range, such as an interquartile range."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":368.749,"endTime":374.199,"body":"Range describes the middle 50"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":368.749,"endTime":374.199,"body":"percent of the values, so it's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":374.23900000000003,"endTime":379.23900000000003,"body":"less affected by occasional extreme"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":374.23900000000003,"endTime":379.23900000000003,"body":"outliers at either ends of the range."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":379.469,"endTime":385.219,"body":"And a variance is definition of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":379.469,"endTime":385.219,"body":"a term which describes how far"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":385.509,"endTime":390.389,"body":"each individual point is away"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":385.509,"endTime":390.389,"body":"from whichever measure of central"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":390.389,"endTime":392.649,"body":"tendency you use, usually the median."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":393.659,"endTime":395.139,"body":"Right, so when"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":393.659,"endTime":395.139,"body":"we're talking about numbers in"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":395.139,"endTime":397.599,"body":"general, we'd like to average"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":395.139,"endTime":397.599,"body":"things, and that's the mean, but I"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":397.599,"endTime":399.059,"body":"understand the mean's not as good."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":399.17900000000003,"endTime":402.329,"body":"That's affected by outliers, and"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":399.17900000000003,"endTime":402.329,"body":"that's why the median is more unuseful."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":402.329,"endTime":402.959,"body":"Is that correct?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":404.28900000000004,"endTime":408.849,"body":"Yeah, it depends"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":404.28900000000004,"endTime":408.849,"body":"on the distribution of your data."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":409.439,"endTime":416.009,"body":"So the mean is a good value to use"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":409.439,"endTime":416.009,"body":"often because it takes information"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":416.009,"endTime":417.689,"body":"from every individual individual."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":418.35900000000004,"endTime":422.60900000000004,"body":"A data point in the data set and it uses"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":418.35900000000004,"endTime":422.60900000000004,"body":"that information in its calculation."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":422.639,"endTime":425.73900000000003,"body":"So you're not throwing away any"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":422.639,"endTime":425.73900000000003,"body":"information, but because of the way"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":425.73900000000003,"endTime":432.42900000000003,"body":"it's calculated it can be quite affected"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":425.73900000000003,"endTime":432.42900000000003,"body":"by a small number of particularly high"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":432.439,"endTime":437.564,"body":"or particularly low values that don't"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":432.439,"endTime":437.564,"body":"really represent the typical value of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":437.564,"endTime":439.73900000000003,"body":"the data, if there is such a thing."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":440.079,"endTime":444.66400000000004,"body":"The median takes the middle"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":440.079,"endTime":444.66400000000004,"body":"50 percent of the values."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":445.084,"endTime":450.36400000000003,"body":"So it is effectively discarding"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":445.084,"endTime":450.36400000000003,"body":"information from, you know, the top"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":450.464,"endTime":456.524,"body":"tail and the bottom tail of the data"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":450.464,"endTime":456.524,"body":"set, and for that reason is, I guess,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":456.55400000000003,"endTime":462.284,"body":"less desirable to use than the mean if"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":456.55400000000003,"endTime":462.284,"body":"those values at either end of the range"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":462.314,"endTime":467.48400000000004,"body":"are actually considered typical and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":462.314,"endTime":467.48400000000004,"body":"representative of the true data set, but"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":467.48400000000004,"endTime":473.04400000000004,"body":"if they are unusually high or low outliers"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":467.48400000000004,"endTime":473.04400000000004,"body":"and we don't think that they genuinely"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":473.05400000000003,"endTime":477.944,"body":"represent the true population, then it's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":473.05400000000003,"endTime":477.944,"body":"a good thing to discard that information"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":477.944,"endTime":480.474,"body":"and just use the middle 50 percent."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":481.66400000000004,"endTime":486.644,"body":"The range takes that concept"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":481.66400000000004,"endTime":486.644,"body":"even further and simply uses"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":486.644,"endTime":488.504,"body":"two values from the data set."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":488.61400000000003,"endTime":493.814,"body":"So you might have a million values in"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":488.61400000000003,"endTime":493.814,"body":"your data set and to describe it simply"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":493.814,"endTime":497.85400000000004,"body":"using a range, all that does is it"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":493.814,"endTime":497.85400000000004,"body":"takes the lowest value and the highest"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":497.85400000000004,"endTime":501.22900000000004,"body":"value And you usually put a little dash"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":497.85400000000004,"endTime":501.22900000000004,"body":"between them and you say, you know,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":501.259,"endTime":503.04900000000004,"body":"the numbers range from this to this."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":503.589,"endTime":506.559,"body":"And it doesn't tell you anything"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":503.589,"endTime":506.559,"body":"about what else is happening"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":506.689,"endTime":508.059,"body":"in the middle of the data set."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":508.47900000000004,"endTime":515.659,"body":"So that can be obviously hugely influenced"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":508.47900000000004,"endTime":515.659,"body":"by outlying values and doesn't tell you"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":515.669,"endTime":517.949,"body":"anything about the middle of the range."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":518.2189999999999,"endTime":522.079,"body":"But I guess it's useful to, it's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":518.2189999999999,"endTime":522.079,"body":"a useful concept, particularly"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":522.079,"endTime":523.629,"body":"when combined with a median."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":523.7189999999999,"endTime":527.644,"body":"So the median looks at the middle"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":523.7189999999999,"endTime":527.644,"body":"50 percent of values And the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":527.644,"endTime":530.004,"body":"range looks at the extreme ends."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":530.184,"endTime":534.254,"body":"And it can give you a nice little picture"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":530.184,"endTime":534.254,"body":"and summary when taken together of what"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":534.264,"endTime":536.054,"body":"the distribution of the data looks like."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":536.604,"endTime":539.054,"body":"So it's horses for courses"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":536.604,"endTime":539.054,"body":"a little bit, I'd say."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":540.1039999999999,"endTime":542.9639999999999,"body":"And all these things"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":540.1039999999999,"endTime":542.9639999999999,"body":"are really used as a way of describing"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":542.9639999999999,"endTime":545.894,"body":"numbers in order to interpret results."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":546.054,"endTime":551.944,"body":"It's a way of assessing how well treatment"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":546.054,"endTime":551.944,"body":"can be useful for certain individuals"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":551.944,"endTime":553.454,"body":"or for a population in general."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":554.074,"endTime":558.564,"body":"I mean, statistics"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":554.074,"endTime":558.564,"body":"is a mathematical concept which is"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":558.7239999999999,"endTime":563.524,"body":"useful not just for medicine, but it's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":558.7239999999999,"endTime":563.524,"body":"used in finance and engineering and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":563.6239999999999,"endTime":566.7339999999999,"body":"agriculture and all walks of life really."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":566.7339999999999,"endTime":571.6139999999999,"body":"So anywhere where numbers can"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":566.7339999999999,"endTime":571.6139999999999,"body":"be used to represent phenomena"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":571.7139999999999,"endTime":573.554,"body":"that exist in the real world."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":573.8739999999999,"endTime":575.144,"body":"Statistics can be useful."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":575.184,"endTime":578.7239999999999,"body":"So the applications are virtually endless."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":578.944,"endTime":583.9839999999999,"body":"I guess one of the key concepts for"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":578.944,"endTime":583.9839999999999,"body":"statistics and another one which"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":584.8739999999999,"endTime":589.524,"body":"often gets a little bit forgotten when"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":584.8739999999999,"endTime":589.524,"body":"people are interpreting statistics in"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":589.7339999999999,"endTime":595.644,"body":"medical literature is that any time"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":589.7339999999999,"endTime":595.644,"body":"we do a study or we analyse a data"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":595.644,"endTime":603.759,"body":"set Typically, that is a sample which"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":595.644,"endTime":603.759,"body":"has been taken from a true population."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":604.529,"endTime":610.169,"body":"Um, so it may be, for example,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":604.529,"endTime":610.169,"body":"that we have recruited 100 patients"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":610.169,"endTime":616.079,"body":"who have had knee operations from"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":610.169,"endTime":616.079,"body":"all of the patients that you've"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":616.189,"endTime":618.8689999999999,"body":"operated on over the last 12 months."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":619.439,"endTime":623.884,"body":"Now, you might have operated on, you know,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":619.439,"endTime":623.884,"body":"Well, more than a hundred patients in 12"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":623.904,"endTime":630.824,"body":"months and what we're looking at in the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":623.904,"endTime":630.824,"body":"study is a sample of all of the patients"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":630.924,"endTime":635.0039999999999,"body":"that you operate on or we might be trying"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":630.924,"endTime":635.0039999999999,"body":"to extrapolate our thinking to all of the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":635.0039999999999,"endTime":639.8539999999999,"body":"patients who have knee operations, not"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":635.0039999999999,"endTime":639.8539999999999,"body":"just by you and not just in this year."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":640.294,"endTime":644.1239999999999,"body":"So that that concept that when we"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":640.294,"endTime":644.1239999999999,"body":"analyze a study we're analyzing"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":644.9889999999999,"endTime":650.529,"body":"A sample taken from a larger true"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":644.9889999999999,"endTime":650.529,"body":"population is a really important one."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":650.579,"endTime":656.449,"body":"And often when we come back to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":650.579,"endTime":656.449,"body":"interpreting some of the analysis"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":656.4689999999999,"endTime":661.539,"body":"parameters and testing hypotheses that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":656.4689999999999,"endTime":661.539,"body":"a lot of that framework is based around"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":662.3789999999999,"endTime":668.449,"body":"estimating what we think these values"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":662.3789999999999,"endTime":668.449,"body":"would truly be if we had collected data"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":668.449,"endTime":670.939,"body":"on every person that had a knee operation."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":671.319,"endTime":673.6289999999999,"body":"We've introduced"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":671.319,"endTime":673.6289999999999,"body":"the concept of hypotheses."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":674.1239999999999,"endTime":676.434,"body":"Perhaps you can explain that in"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":674.1239999999999,"endTime":676.434,"body":"more detail if you could, please."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":676.5039999999999,"endTime":676.8539999999999,"body":"Sure."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":677.524,"endTime":682.424,"body":"Um, so hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":677.524,"endTime":682.424,"body":"testing, I guess, is a way"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":682.4639999999999,"endTime":689.184,"body":"of using statistical methods"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":682.4639999999999,"endTime":689.184,"body":"to refute a null hypothesis."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":689.544,"endTime":694.1139999999999,"body":"And that framework of thinking"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":689.544,"endTime":694.1139999999999,"body":"is generally derived from the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":694.1239999999999,"endTime":698.4939999999999,"body":"concept that unless we know"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":694.1239999999999,"endTime":698.4939999999999,"body":"that we're going to improve."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":699.189,"endTime":703.2389999999999,"body":"life or medicine somehow for"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":699.189,"endTime":703.2389999999999,"body":"particularly for our patients."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":703.409,"endTime":708.3689999999999,"body":"We would usually defer to the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":703.409,"endTime":708.3689999999999,"body":"status quo unless we know that what"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":708.3689999999999,"endTime":710.069,"body":"we're doing can make things better."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":710.699,"endTime":712.9989999999999,"body":"On the, on the"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":710.699,"endTime":712.9989999999999,"body":"basis of above all do no harm."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":713.7389999999999,"endTime":715.2389999999999,"body":"Exactly, exactly."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":715.959,"endTime":721.539,"body":"Um, and also based on the fact that,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":715.959,"endTime":721.539,"body":"um, you can have random variation,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":721.9789999999999,"endTime":727.759,"body":"um, in data sets as well and we don't"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":721.9789999999999,"endTime":727.759,"body":"want to infer too much into those."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":727.759,"endTime":732.7289999999999,"body":"We want to only make changes which"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":727.759,"endTime":732.7289999999999,"body":"take a lot of effort sometimes"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":733.329,"endTime":736.539,"body":"if we know that there's a true"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":733.329,"endTime":736.539,"body":"effect there and it's not just some"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":736.539,"endTime":738.199,"body":"random variation in the data set."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":739.2389999999999,"endTime":743.419,"body":"So typically in a study that does"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":739.2389999999999,"endTime":743.419,"body":"involve a hypothesis test there will"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":743.419,"endTime":749.269,"body":"be a null hypothesis which the simplest"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":743.419,"endTime":749.269,"body":"scenario would be a study that involves"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":749.3589999999999,"endTime":751.399,"body":"two groups and a single intervention."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":752.044,"endTime":756.064,"body":"And the null hypothesis would be"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":752.044,"endTime":756.064,"body":"that there is no difference between"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":756.064,"endTime":760.184,"body":"the two groups, which means that the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":756.064,"endTime":760.184,"body":"treatment doesn't have any effect."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":760.774,"endTime":768.2339999999999,"body":"So if we, if we conduct a test, a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":760.774,"endTime":768.2339999999999,"body":"hypothesis test, we're really looking"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":768.2539999999999,"endTime":775.3739999999999,"body":"at our data set from our single sample"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":768.2539999999999,"endTime":775.3739999999999,"body":"and trying to work out whether that data"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":775.384,"endTime":777.674,"body":"is consistent with the null hypothesis."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":779.9699999999999,"endTime":784.56,"body":"And if it's not consistent with"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":779.9699999999999,"endTime":784.56,"body":"the null hypothesis by a small"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":784.56,"endTime":788.789,"body":"amount, we may say, well, there may"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":784.56,"endTime":788.789,"body":"be a small true effect here, but"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":789.009,"endTime":790.789,"body":"this might also be due to chance."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":791.169,"endTime":798.169,"body":"Whereas if the data in our sample is"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":791.169,"endTime":798.169,"body":"very, very inconsistent with the null"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":798.18,"endTime":803.759,"body":"hypothesis, that's much more convincing"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":798.18,"endTime":803.759,"body":"for us to say, well, there Actually,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":803.8499999999999,"endTime":807.2099999999999,"body":"we think we have enough evidence"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":803.8499999999999,"endTime":807.2099999999999,"body":"here collected that we can refute"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":807.259,"endTime":809.649,"body":"this null hypothesis with confidence."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":810.1189999999999,"endTime":814.059,"body":"And in rejecting that null"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":810.1189999999999,"endTime":814.059,"body":"hypothesis, we obviously then come"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":814.059,"endTime":815.7199999999999,"body":"up with an alternative hypothesis."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":815.7489999999999,"endTime":819.3389999999999,"body":"And that might be that the treatment"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":815.7489999999999,"endTime":819.3389999999999,"body":"improves the outcome that we're"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":819.3399999999999,"endTime":821.069,"body":"looking at, or maybe it makes it worse."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":821.1089999999999,"endTime":825.42,"body":"And we can make an estimate as to by"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":821.1089999999999,"endTime":825.42,"body":"how much does it increase or decrease."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":825.6999999999999,"endTime":828.939,"body":"So that's the general"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":825.6999999999999,"endTime":828.939,"body":"framework of thinking and ideas"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":828.939,"endTime":830.399,"body":"behind hypothesis testing."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":830.884,"endTime":833.4749999999999,"body":"And I believe that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":830.884,"endTime":833.4749999999999,"body":"works then on working out chance of that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":833.4839999999999,"endTime":835.8249999999999,"body":"happening and using what we call p value."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":836.1949999999999,"endTime":836.9839999999999,"body":"Absolutely right."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":837.0749999999999,"endTime":844.674,"body":"Yeah, so a p value is the chance"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":837.0749999999999,"endTime":844.674,"body":"of observing your data set if"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":844.675,"endTime":847.155,"body":"the null hypothesis is true."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":847.434,"endTime":853.055,"body":"And obviously the more your data deviates"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":847.434,"endTime":853.055,"body":"from what you would expect under the null"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":853.0649999999999,"endTime":858.644,"body":"hypothesis, the chance of those results"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":853.0649999999999,"endTime":858.644,"body":"arising due to chance alone without"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":858.644,"endTime":860.324,"body":"your treatment having any true effect."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":860.764,"endTime":864.8639999999999,"body":"become smaller and smaller as the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":860.764,"endTime":864.8639999999999,"body":"differences become more and more extreme."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":864.865,"endTime":870.814,"body":"The important thing to remember about"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":864.865,"endTime":870.814,"body":"p values is that they have come under"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":870.814,"endTime":875.3439999999999,"body":"quite a lot of criticism in recent"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":870.814,"endTime":875.3439999999999,"body":"times, largely because that is the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":875.3449999999999,"endTime":877.634,"body":"only information that they convey."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":878.024,"endTime":881.4449999999999,"body":"They convey the probability"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":878.024,"endTime":881.4449999999999,"body":"that, you know, your results"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":881.534,"endTime":883.8639999999999,"body":"arose due to chance alone."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":884.5949999999999,"endTime":888.284,"body":"And so the lower that chance is, you"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":884.5949999999999,"endTime":888.284,"body":"know, the more confidence you can"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":888.284,"endTime":889.9939999999999,"body":"have in rejecting the null hypothesis."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":890.5649999999999,"endTime":895.175,"body":"But it doesn't tell you anything"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":890.5649999999999,"endTime":895.175,"body":"about the magnitude of the change"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":895.175,"endTime":896.3739999999999,"body":"that you're actually observing."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":896.375,"endTime":900.665,"body":"I always thought that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":896.375,"endTime":900.665,"body":"increasing the sample size reduces or"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":900.665,"endTime":904.044,"body":"increases the chance of having a positive"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":900.665,"endTime":904.044,"body":"p value and that might be one of the"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":904.044,"endTime":905.765,"body":"reasons it was criticised in that sense."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":906.155,"endTime":909.0039999999999,"body":"I also realised too that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":906.155,"endTime":909.0039999999999,"body":"the actual value of 0."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":909.005,"endTime":914.145,"body":"05 was just decided arbitrarily by Fisher,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":909.005,"endTime":914.145,"body":"an early statistician, who thought that 1"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":914.145,"endTime":916.025,"body":"in 20 was a reasonable number to choose."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":916.3149999999999,"endTime":917.3449999999999,"body":"That's absolutely right."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":917.3449999999999,"endTime":922.245,"body":"So the value that you choose as"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":917.3449999999999,"endTime":922.245,"body":"The threshold for what you consider"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":922.515,"endTime":925.9549999999999,"body":"a significant p value versus one"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":922.515,"endTime":925.9549999999999,"body":"which you're going to ascribe due to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":926.185,"endTime":928.635,"body":"chance alone is completely arbitrary."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":928.7049999999999,"endTime":931.935,"body":"There's been a convention for"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":928.7049999999999,"endTime":931.935,"body":"a long time now to set that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":931.935,"endTime":934.3149999999999,"body":"value at five percent or 0."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":934.375,"endTime":941.174,"body":"05, but as medical literature becomes"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":934.375,"endTime":941.174,"body":"more and more common, you know,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":941.414,"endTime":942.574,"body":"there are more and more p values."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":942.985,"endTime":948.415,"body":"studies conducted and papers published"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":942.985,"endTime":948.415,"body":"every day, year after year, we start to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":948.415,"endTime":954.0949999999999,"body":"see a little bit of a phenomenon whereby"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":948.415,"endTime":954.0949999999999,"body":"there can be other issues at play, such as"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":954.125,"endTime":960.334,"body":"publication bias and a few other bits and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":954.125,"endTime":960.334,"body":"pieces, which mean that this conventional"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":960.3439999999999,"endTime":965.115,"body":"thinking that, you know, one in 20 chance"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":960.3439999999999,"endTime":965.115,"body":"is something which is never going to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":965.125,"endTime":966.7149999999999,"body":"happen unless there's a true effect."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":967.125,"endTime":969.4639999999999,"body":"Um, you know, if you, if"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":967.125,"endTime":969.4639999999999,"body":"you've got thousands of."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":970.2049999999999,"endTime":975.185,"body":"papers being published, you know, every"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":970.2049999999999,"endTime":975.185,"body":"day, and they're all testing hypotheses,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":975.525,"endTime":977.745,"body":"you know, that's way more than 20 papers."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":978.0849999999999,"endTime":980.295,"body":"You're going to get lots of them"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":978.0849999999999,"endTime":980.295,"body":"that are going to have statistically"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":980.295,"endTime":982.295,"body":"significant results due to chance alone."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":982.895,"endTime":985.9639999999999,"body":"And so for that reason, you know,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":982.895,"endTime":985.9639999999999,"body":"there's probably a bit of a push to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":986.334,"endTime":993.885,"body":"start using lower p values to define"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":986.334,"endTime":993.885,"body":"significance and or just encouraging"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":993.885,"endTime":1000.38,"body":"readers to interpret p values without"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":993.885,"endTime":1000.38,"body":"necessarily feeling forced to ascribe"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1000.38,"endTime":1006.14,"body":"a single arbitrary threshold to them as"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1000.38,"endTime":1006.14,"body":"to whether they're significant or not."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1006.4699999999999,"endTime":1011.3299999999999,"body":"You can certainly look at it as a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1006.4699999999999,"endTime":1011.3299999999999,"body":"probability chance as to how likely this"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1011.3299999999999,"endTime":1015.66,"body":"data set arose due to chance alone and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1011.3299999999999,"endTime":1015.66,"body":"make up your own mind about whether you"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1015.66,"endTime":1017.1999999999999,"body":"think there's a true effect there or not."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1017.29,"endTime":1018.4499999999999,"body":"I'd like to"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1017.29,"endTime":1018.4499999999999,"body":"let you know that Aussie Med"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1018.4499999999999,"endTime":1019.8499999999999,"body":"Ed is supported by Healthshare."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1020.18,"endTime":1023.31,"body":"Healthshare is a digital health company"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1020.18,"endTime":1023.31,"body":"that provides solutions for patients,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1023.42,"endTime":1025.43,"body":"GPs and specialists across Australia."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1026.079,"endTime":1029.21,"body":"Two of Healthshare's products"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1026.079,"endTime":1029.21,"body":"are Baird Consult and A pre"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1029.21,"endTime":1031.77,"body":"consultation questionnaire that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1029.21,"endTime":1031.77,"body":"allows GPs to know a patient's"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1031.77,"endTime":1033.48,"body":"agenda before the consult begins."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1033.97,"endTime":1036.3,"body":"As well as HealthShare's"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1033.97,"endTime":1036.3,"body":"Specialist Referrals Directory."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1036.89,"endTime":1040.53,"body":"A specialist analyzed health"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1036.89,"endTime":1040.53,"body":"directory helping GPs specialist."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1041.3,"endTime":1042.88,"body":"What about the opposite"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1041.3,"endTime":1042.88,"body":"end of the spectrum?"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1042.88,"endTime":1045.259,"body":"So what you're saying"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1042.88,"endTime":1045.259,"body":"at the moment is that 0."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1045.259,"endTime":1046.26,"body":"05 might be a bit high."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1046.6100000000001,"endTime":1049.519,"body":"What about the people who talk about,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1046.6100000000001,"endTime":1049.519,"body":"oh, things approaching significant?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1050.009,"endTime":1052.94,"body":"There are"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1050.009,"endTime":1052.94,"body":"probably two sides to that."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1053.0800000000002,"endTime":1061.595,"body":"On, on one hand, I think to maintain"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1053.0800000000002,"endTime":1061.595,"body":"integrity in the research process, you"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1061.665,"endTime":1068.595,"body":"do need to be faithful to the traditional"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1061.665,"endTime":1068.595,"body":"scientific method and I think to, to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1068.625,"endTime":1074.834,"body":"claim that you have found a causal link"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1068.625,"endTime":1074.834,"body":"between something, you know, requires"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1074.835,"endTime":1077.9350000000002,"body":"a whole lot of things to line up."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1077.9950000000001,"endTime":1082.835,"body":"One of which is to have observed"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1077.9950000000001,"endTime":1082.835,"body":"A difference, a true difference"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1082.835,"endTime":1084.4450000000002,"body":"due to your intervention."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1084.9950000000001,"endTime":1091.835,"body":"And the way to do that really is to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1084.9950000000001,"endTime":1091.835,"body":"define what you think is an important"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1091.924,"endTime":1098.9640000000002,"body":"difference clinically before you start"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1091.924,"endTime":1098.9640000000002,"body":"the study, um, and to also define exactly"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1098.9640000000002,"endTime":1100.765,"body":"how you're going to analyse the outcome."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1101.1850000000002,"endTime":1105.285,"body":"And as part of that, I think you do"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1101.1850000000002,"endTime":1105.285,"body":"need to define a threshold level of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1105.285,"endTime":1108.805,"body":"significance and stick to that in"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1105.285,"endTime":1108.805,"body":"your analysis and in your write up."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1108.915,"endTime":1112.7040000000002,"body":"Certainly that can be frustrating"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1108.915,"endTime":1112.7040000000002,"body":"for authors, I think, who might, in"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1112.7050000000002,"endTime":1117.115,"body":"their data set, observe probably the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1112.7050000000002,"endTime":1117.115,"body":"effect that they were looking for."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1117.145,"endTime":1120.785,"body":"The effect might be slightly smaller"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1117.145,"endTime":1120.785,"body":"than they were expecting, or the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1152.155,"endTime":1155.905,"body":"variance in the data set slightly"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1152.155,"endTime":1155.905,"body":"higher than they were expecting."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1156.145,"endTime":1159.315,"body":"And as a result, their p"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1156.145,"endTime":1159.315,"body":"value is not quite as small."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1159.68,"endTime":1163.84,"body":"as their, the threshold value"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1159.68,"endTime":1163.84,"body":"that they had picked prior"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1163.84,"endTime":1165.05,"body":"to starting the experiment."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1165.22,"endTime":1170.58,"body":"So in those scenarios, I think as"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1165.22,"endTime":1170.58,"body":"the author of the published paper,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1170.78,"endTime":1176.559,"body":"you just need to stick to your a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1170.78,"endTime":1176.559,"body":"priori decision making framework."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1176.68,"endTime":1184.07,"body":"But that's not to say that as readers"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1176.68,"endTime":1184.07,"body":"we can't also consider the fact that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1184.1499999999999,"endTime":1189.85,"body":"p values are are simply probabilities"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1184.1499999999999,"endTime":1189.85,"body":"that results arose due to chance."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1190.009,"endTime":1195.769,"body":"Yes, the arbitrary thresholds are"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1190.009,"endTime":1195.769,"body":"important, but we don't, they can be"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1195.769,"endTime":1200.61,"body":"interpreted in another framework, I guess,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1195.769,"endTime":1200.61,"body":"as the reader, if you're not the person"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1200.62,"endTime":1206.269,"body":"who has, has set the level, um, when"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1200.62,"endTime":1206.269,"body":"you're registering a study, for example."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1207.019,"endTime":1210.1689999999999,"body":"So what about my other"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1207.019,"endTime":1210.1689999999999,"body":"thought too, the larger the study, the"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1210.1689999999999,"endTime":1213.529,"body":"greater the power of the study, the"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1210.1689999999999,"endTime":1213.529,"body":"more chance it reached significance."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1213.529,"endTime":1214.6299999999999,"body":"And so it almost seemed like."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1214.96,"endTime":1217.42,"body":"If you just kept increasing"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1214.96,"endTime":1217.42,"body":"the sample size, you'd end"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1217.42,"endTime":1219.36,"body":"up, everything would be a 0."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1219.36,"endTime":1220.12,"body":"05 p value?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1221.349,"endTime":1222.219,"body":"Yeah, that's right."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1222.379,"endTime":1226.209,"body":"In the calculation of a p value,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1222.379,"endTime":1226.209,"body":"usually the things that will influence"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1226.209,"endTime":1231.049,"body":"it are the size of the effect, the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1226.209,"endTime":1231.049,"body":"variation that exists in the data"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1231.049,"endTime":1234.9289999999999,"body":"set, and what the sample size is."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1235.539,"endTime":1242.709,"body":"So, for any given combination of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1235.539,"endTime":1242.709,"body":"effect size and variance in a data"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1242.709,"endTime":1247.9389999999999,"body":"set, The larger your dataset, the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1242.709,"endTime":1247.9389999999999,"body":"smaller your p value is going to be."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1248.399,"endTime":1254.069,"body":"And so as things like electronic medical"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1248.399,"endTime":1254.069,"body":"records and data linkage and data"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1254.069,"endTime":1260.129,"body":"sharing become more and more common, the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1254.069,"endTime":1260.129,"body":"possibility of mega datasets to emerge"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1260.4189999999999,"endTime":1265.109,"body":"becomes more and more realistic and more"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1260.4189999999999,"endTime":1265.109,"body":"and more common, and certainly that's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1265.109,"endTime":1267.299,"body":"a phenomenon worth bearing in mind too."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1267.839,"endTime":1272.349,"body":"So for any time that a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1267.839,"endTime":1272.349,"body":"p value is very small."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1272.449,"endTime":1280.769,"body":"It means that there probably is an effect"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1272.449,"endTime":1280.769,"body":"there, but the p value may be small"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1280.769,"endTime":1282.729,"body":"for any one of those three reasons."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1282.769,"endTime":1286.83,"body":"So, low variance in the data"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1282.769,"endTime":1286.83,"body":"set, a large magnitude of effect,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1286.9389999999999,"endTime":1288.889,"body":"or a very large sample size."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1289.399,"endTime":1292.789,"body":"So if it's a large magnitude of effect,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1289.399,"endTime":1292.789,"body":"then obviously that's clinically"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1292.799,"endTime":1295.269,"body":"very important to us as clinicians."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1295.759,"endTime":1300.729,"body":"The other two are more statistical"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1295.759,"endTime":1300.729,"body":"phenomena, which are not so important"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1300.739,"endTime":1303.1589999999999,"body":"for how effective the treatment is."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1303.569,"endTime":1307.819,"body":"Um, so it is important to look at the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1303.569,"endTime":1307.819,"body":"sample size when considering a p value."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1308.829,"endTime":1312.249,"body":"So if you see a positive"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1308.829,"endTime":1312.249,"body":"p value, but you actually see the actual"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1312.249,"endTime":1315.904,"body":"overall result saying a very small"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1312.249,"endTime":1315.904,"body":"effect, You might be thinking, well,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1316.104,"endTime":1319.194,"body":"okay, that's useful to know, but it's"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1316.104,"endTime":1319.194,"body":"not going to really change my clinical"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1319.194,"endTime":1324.2839999999999,"body":"practice as much as a huge variance with"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1319.194,"endTime":1324.2839999999999,"body":"a positive p value and a small sample size"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1324.2839999999999,"endTime":1325.634,"body":"where you go, that's really important."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1326.484,"endTime":1327.0539999999999,"body":"Exactly."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1327.724,"endTime":1329.454,"body":"What about this"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1327.724,"endTime":1329.454,"body":"idea of confidence intervals that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1329.454,"endTime":1331.5439999999999,"body":"you also see talked about as well?"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1331.7939999999999,"endTime":1334.144,"body":"I get a little bit confused on that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1331.7939999999999,"endTime":1334.144,"body":"because it seems to have a range"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1334.144,"endTime":1335.404,"body":"and it has a number in the middle."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1335.405,"endTime":1336.984,"body":"Can you explain that to me?"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1337.0439999999999,"endTime":1338.5539999999999,"body":"And does that have anything"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1337.0439999999999,"endTime":1338.5539999999999,"body":"to do with what we're talking"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1338.5539999999999,"endTime":1339.724,"body":"about with p values as well?"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1339.725,"endTime":1339.774,"body":"No."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1340.614,"endTime":1341.144,"body":"Sure."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1341.354,"endTime":1348.854,"body":"So confidence intervals are a range"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1341.354,"endTime":1348.854,"body":"of plausible values within which the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1348.854,"endTime":1354.434,"body":"true population value will lie with"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1348.854,"endTime":1354.434,"body":"a particular degree of confidence."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1355.094,"endTime":1358.874,"body":"Typically they're presented as"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1355.094,"endTime":1358.874,"body":"95 percent confidence intervals."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1359.154,"endTime":1363.754,"body":"So it's a range of values which"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1359.154,"endTime":1363.754,"body":"will include the true population"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1363.754,"endTime":1366.264,"body":"value with 95 percent certainty."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1366.754,"endTime":1372.3139999999999,"body":"So, In many senses they're analogous"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1366.754,"endTime":1372.3139999999999,"body":"to p values, but they have the added"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1372.394,"endTime":1379.394,"body":"advantage of providing a range of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1372.394,"endTime":1379.394,"body":"values, not just a probability of whether"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1379.394,"endTime":1380.964,"body":"something arose due to chance or not."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1380.994,"endTime":1385.5439999999999,"body":"So the range of values that's provided"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1380.994,"endTime":1385.5439999999999,"body":"by the confidence interval can give"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1385.5439999999999,"endTime":1387.714,"body":"you an idea of the magnitude of effect."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1387.934,"endTime":1392.604,"body":"Often they can be calculated around an"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1387.934,"endTime":1392.604,"body":"estimated value, so you might estimate it."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1392.9189999999999,"endTime":1396.559,"body":"You know, the average difference in"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1392.9189999999999,"endTime":1396.559,"body":"blood pressure between two groups."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1396.9189999999999,"endTime":1401.1789999999999,"body":"Uh, so the average difference in blood"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1396.9189999999999,"endTime":1401.1789999999999,"body":"pressure has a single particular value and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1401.1789999999999,"endTime":1404.499,"body":"that's the value that you'll see in the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1401.1789999999999,"endTime":1404.499,"body":"middle of the confidence interval range"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1404.839,"endTime":1410.509,"body":"and either side of that you have the, the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1404.839,"endTime":1410.509,"body":"edges of the confidence interval range."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1410.789,"endTime":1413.9089999999999,"body":"So that's the range of plausible"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1410.789,"endTime":1413.9089999999999,"body":"values that the, the difference"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1413.9089999999999,"endTime":1415.069,"body":"in blood pressure could take."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1415.854,"endTime":1419.264,"body":"So in that scenario,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1415.854,"endTime":1419.264,"body":"if you then gave a medication that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1419.3039999999999,"endTime":1423.494,"body":"adjusted the blood pressure of the group"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1419.3039999999999,"endTime":1423.494,"body":"of patients, they would then have a"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1423.494,"endTime":1425.924,"body":"range and a confidence interval of 95%."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1426.424,"endTime":1429.724,"body":"And then do you compare the two confidence"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1426.424,"endTime":1429.724,"body":"intervals that way and how do you do it?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1430.2839999999999,"endTime":1432.365,"body":"Not ideally like that."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1432.374,"endTime":1440.244,"body":"So you could calculate a blood"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1432.374,"endTime":1440.244,"body":"pressure value in the first group and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1440.244,"endTime":1441.864,"body":"a confidence interval around that."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1442.399,"endTime":1444.959,"body":"And you could calculate a blood"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1442.399,"endTime":1444.959,"body":"pressure in the second group and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1444.959,"endTime":1446.599,"body":"a confidence interval around that."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1446.749,"endTime":1450.459,"body":"What would be preferable to do, if"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1446.749,"endTime":1450.459,"body":"you knew that the aim of your study"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1450.459,"endTime":1456.019,"body":"was to compare the difference in blood"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1450.459,"endTime":1456.019,"body":"pressure or that how it changes when you"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1456.019,"endTime":1461.4289999999999,"body":"administer your treatment, you can make"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1456.019,"endTime":1461.4289999999999,"body":"the outcome of your trial deliberately"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1461.809,"endTime":1463.259,"body":"the difference in blood pressure."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1463.879,"endTime":1467.389,"body":"And so that's blood pressure one"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1463.879,"endTime":1467.389,"body":"minus blood pressure two, and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1467.389,"endTime":1469.469,"body":"that then becomes a single value."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1470.154,"endTime":1474.654,"body":"You can then, uh, calculate a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1470.154,"endTime":1474.654,"body":"con confidence interval around"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1475.014,"endTime":1477.954,"body":"that single difference value."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1478.134,"endTime":1480.414,"body":"And that's much more useful."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1480.624,"endTime":1483.684,"body":"And a more, a more valid way of telling"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1480.624,"endTime":1483.684,"body":"what the difference is between two"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1483.684,"endTime":1488.7839999999999,"body":"groups than, um, simply comparing overlap"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1483.684,"endTime":1488.7839999999999,"body":"of confidence intervals between two"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1488.7839999999999,"endTime":1490.974,"body":"separately created confidence intervals."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1491.364,"endTime":1493.494,"body":"We might come back"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1491.364,"endTime":1493.494,"body":"to that example in a second when we"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1493.494,"endTime":1496.644,"body":"start talking about the different tests"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1493.494,"endTime":1496.644,"body":"and things we use and talk about how."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1497.139,"endTime":1501.269,"body":"What, whether it's a parametric test and"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1497.139,"endTime":1501.269,"body":"what, what test you'd use in that example."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1501.789,"endTime":1504.759,"body":"If we move on a bit further though,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1501.789,"endTime":1504.759,"body":"what are the common pitfalls in"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1504.759,"endTime":1508.449,"body":"interpreting statistical data in medical"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1504.759,"endTime":1508.449,"body":"studies and how can they be avoided?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1509.059,"endTime":1512.9289999999999,"body":"I would say that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1509.059,"endTime":1512.9289999999999,"body":"the most common pitfall is probably to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1512.9289999999999,"endTime":1517.209,"body":"assume that a study is well conducted"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1512.9289999999999,"endTime":1517.209,"body":"and that the conclusions are valid."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1517.769,"endTime":1521.809,"body":"I find it's much better to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1517.769,"endTime":1521.809,"body":"assume the opposite and ask"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1521.849,"endTime":1523.149,"body":"the authors to prove you wrong."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1523.289,"endTime":1525.699,"body":"If I can't do that, I'll"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1523.289,"endTime":1525.699,"body":"just remain dubious."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1526.374,"endTime":1529.0539999999999,"body":"Okay, almost like a null"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1526.374,"endTime":1529.0539999999999,"body":"hypothesis on the study you're reading."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1529.924,"endTime":1530.5539999999999,"body":"Exactly."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1530.844,"endTime":1534.404,"body":"So, what are the key characteristics"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1530.844,"endTime":1534.404,"body":"of a well designed and robust"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1534.414,"endTime":1535.684,"body":"study that you need to look for?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1536.484,"endTime":1540.494,"body":"So there are a number"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1536.484,"endTime":1540.494,"body":"of factors, and really, there's a huge"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1540.494,"endTime":1547.3139999999999,"body":"long list of things to look for, because"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1540.494,"endTime":1547.3139999999999,"body":"good research is really just a process"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1547.3139999999999,"endTime":1549.164,"body":"of doing lots of little things right."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1549.3139999999999,"endTime":1554.079,"body":"And if you do all of those"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1549.3139999999999,"endTime":1554.079,"body":"little things right, Then"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1554.259,"endTime":1555.6589999999999,"body":"you'll have done good research."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1555.849,"endTime":1559.799,"body":"If you do none of those little"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1555.849,"endTime":1559.799,"body":"things, then it's bad research."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1560.139,"endTime":1563.839,"body":"And there's a huge amount that sits in"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1560.139,"endTime":1563.839,"body":"the middle there somewhere, where they've"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1563.839,"endTime":1568.089,"body":"done some things right, or many things"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1563.839,"endTime":1568.089,"body":"right, and some things not so well."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1568.52,"endTime":1574.059,"body":"But I guess the, some of the important"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1568.52,"endTime":1574.059,"body":"concepts are to understand concepts"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1574.059,"endTime":1579.719,"body":"like the study design is probably"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1574.059,"endTime":1579.719,"body":"the single most important factor."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1579.719,"endTime":1585.684,"body":"So, whilst it's It's possible to have"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1579.719,"endTime":1585.684,"body":"a well conducted case series or a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1585.684,"endTime":1587.634,"body":"well conducted observational study."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1587.7939999999999,"endTime":1593.0439999999999,"body":"If we assume that studies have all been"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1587.7939999999999,"endTime":1593.0439999999999,"body":"conducted with a similar level of rigor,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1593.5439999999999,"endTime":1600.944,"body":"then a randomised control trial that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1593.5439999999999,"endTime":1600.944,"body":"is blinded is a much better design than"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1600.994,"endTime":1606.214,"body":"an observational study of any sort and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1600.994,"endTime":1606.214,"body":"an observational study that makes some"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1606.214,"endTime":1608.144,"body":"attempts to adjust for confounding."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1609.134,"endTime":1613.8139999999999,"body":"is better than a case series and a case"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1609.134,"endTime":1613.8139999999999,"body":"series is better than a case report."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1614.0439999999999,"endTime":1618.944,"body":"So that level of evidence that people"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1614.0439999999999,"endTime":1618.944,"body":"are probably familiar with in terms of an"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1618.944,"endTime":1621.594,"body":"evidence based pyramid still holds true."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1621.824,"endTime":1627.444,"body":"Probably the caveat to that is the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1621.824,"endTime":1627.444,"body":"fact that publication bias is a real"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1627.5439999999999,"endTime":1632.384,"body":"phenomenon and that can certainly"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1627.5439999999999,"endTime":1632.384,"body":"influence meta analyses findings."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1633.004,"endTime":1636.504,"body":"Often the meta analyses and systematic"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1633.004,"endTime":1636.504,"body":"reviews sit at the top of that pyramid,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1636.614,"endTime":1642.4389999999999,"body":"but sometimes If a meta analysis shows"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1636.614,"endTime":1642.4389999999999,"body":"a difference between two groups, or"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1642.4389999999999,"endTime":1646.519,"body":"that a treatment is effective, it's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1642.4389999999999,"endTime":1646.519,"body":"probably actually better to go and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1646.539,"endTime":1652.509,"body":"conduct a single, really well designed,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1646.539,"endTime":1652.509,"body":"robust, large, pragmatic trial to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1652.509,"endTime":1656.6689999999999,"body":"confirm those results, to ensure that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1652.509,"endTime":1656.6689999999999,"body":"it's not due to publication bias."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1658.009,"endTime":1663.279,"body":"If you've got a systematic review or"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1658.009,"endTime":1663.279,"body":"a meta analysis which demonstrates"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1663.299,"endTime":1667.529,"body":"no difference between two groups, um,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1663.299,"endTime":1667.529,"body":"then we can be pretty confident that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1668.014,"endTime":1671.7839999999999,"body":"That hasn't arisen due to publication"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1668.014,"endTime":1671.7839999999999,"body":"bias and you can probably take that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1671.7839999999999,"endTime":1674.224,"body":"result as a, as being a true one."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1674.5639999999999,"endTime":1677.334,"body":"I was going to quickly"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1674.5639999999999,"endTime":1677.334,"body":"just ask, just for the listener, what a"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1677.334,"endTime":1679.414,"body":"systematic review and a meta analysis is."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1679.424,"endTime":1681.984,"body":"Can you just explain to"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1679.424,"endTime":1681.984,"body":"them what that involves?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1682.5539999999999,"endTime":1684.5639999999999,"body":"Yeah, so a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1682.5539999999999,"endTime":1684.5639999999999,"body":"systematic review is simply"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1684.5639999999999,"endTime":1686.694,"body":"a systematic search through"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1689.239,"endTime":1696.579,"body":"Meta analysis is a process which is used"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1689.239,"endTime":1696.579,"body":"to pull results from multiple studies"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1696.899,"endTime":1699.649,"body":"and it comes up with an average effect."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1700.279,"endTime":1705.509,"body":"Um, so often, um, Meta analyses and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1700.279,"endTime":1705.509,"body":"systematic reviews are pulled together."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1705.789,"endTime":1708.6689999999999,"body":"You would need to conduct a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1705.789,"endTime":1708.6689999999999,"body":"systematic review before being"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1708.729,"endTime":1710.4089999999999,"body":"able to conduct a meta analysis."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1710.949,"endTime":1717.469,"body":"So that the idea of a meta analysis"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1710.949,"endTime":1717.469,"body":"is it's a way of generating a large"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1717.789,"endTime":1721.509,"body":"amount of data to answer a question"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1717.789,"endTime":1721.509,"body":"without necessarily needing to do"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1721.509,"endTime":1724.379,"body":"that within a single new trial."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1724.399,"endTime":1728.479,"body":"It's using existing results in the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1724.399,"endTime":1728.479,"body":"medical literature to come up with a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1730.654,"endTime":1733.524,"body":"It's particularly helpful if"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1730.654,"endTime":1733.524,"body":"you have multiple small trials,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1733.584,"endTime":1738.224,"body":"particularly if they have some,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1733.584,"endTime":1738.224,"body":"um, difference in their results."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1739.004,"endTime":1742.0439999999999,"body":"And a publication bias"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1739.004,"endTime":1742.0439999999999,"body":"would be where lots of studies have been"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1742.0439999999999,"endTime":1745.684,"body":"pulled but the actual, all the individual"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1742.0439999999999,"endTime":1745.684,"body":"studies aren't of great quality and"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1745.685,"endTime":1747.224,"body":"therefore they influence the results?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1747.844,"endTime":1751.254,"body":"Yeah, publication"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1747.844,"endTime":1751.254,"body":"bias is typically this phenomenon"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1751.254,"endTime":1755.759,"body":"whereby studies which show a difference"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1751.254,"endTime":1755.759,"body":"between between groups or treatment"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1755.759,"endTime":1759.499,"body":"effectiveness are more likely to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1755.759,"endTime":1759.499,"body":"be published than those that don't."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1759.989,"endTime":1764.779,"body":"And so when people conduct their"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1759.989,"endTime":1764.779,"body":"systematic review, generally you can only"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1764.779,"endTime":1766.749,"body":"find studies that have been published."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1767.079,"endTime":1770.379,"body":"So there might be a whole range of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1767.079,"endTime":1770.379,"body":"studies that people have conducted which"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1770.379,"endTime":1773.9289999999999,"body":"represent the, you know, the true effect"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1770.379,"endTime":1773.9289999999999,"body":"of your treatment or intervention,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1774.509,"endTime":1777.529,"body":"which have never made it to print"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1774.509,"endTime":1777.529,"body":"and therefore never make it into a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1777.529,"endTime":1779.619,"body":"systematic review and meta analysis."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1781.549,"endTime":1782.709,"body":"I'm learning all the time."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1782.839,"endTime":1786.269,"body":"So what other types of biases do we"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1782.839,"endTime":1786.269,"body":"need to be aware of in to try and"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1786.269,"endTime":1790.069,"body":"design a well robust and ideal study?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1790.1589999999999,"endTime":1793.6689999999999,"body":"Essentially anything"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1790.1589999999999,"endTime":1793.6689999999999,"body":"you can think of that can go wrong in a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1793.6689999999999,"endTime":1796.139,"body":"study can be a potential source of bias."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1796.389,"endTime":1799.6689999999999,"body":"Depends greatly on the study"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1796.389,"endTime":1799.6689999999999,"body":"design and what you're doing."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1799.9289999999999,"endTime":1801.619,"body":"You might be conducting a survey."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1802.239,"endTime":1805.009,"body":"There might be ways that you"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1802.239,"endTime":1805.009,"body":"are asking the questions which"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1834.419,"endTime":1835.589,"body":"are a little bit leading."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1835.8890000000001,"endTime":1837.339,"body":"That can introduce bias."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1837.8790000000001,"endTime":1844.029,"body":"You know, if you're measuring an outcome,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1837.8790000000001,"endTime":1844.029,"body":"it might be that if you, the person who's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1844.029,"endTime":1848.4940000000001,"body":"measuring the outcome isn't doing it"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1844.029,"endTime":1848.4940000000001,"body":"in a particularly objective way, and if"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1848.4940000000001,"endTime":1852.664,"body":"they know which, which group participant"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1848.4940000000001,"endTime":1852.664,"body":"has been assigned to, you know, that we"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1852.714,"endTime":1857.634,"body":"have all sorts of inherent, um, biases"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1852.714,"endTime":1857.634,"body":"within us as, as humans that can happen"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1857.634,"endTime":1859.094,"body":"whether, whether we mean them to or not."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1859.5240000000001,"endTime":1864.434,"body":"There are other phenomenon as well in"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1859.5240000000001,"endTime":1864.434,"body":"trial conduct whereby patients might be"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1864.634,"endTime":1869.304,"body":"excluded from the trials for particular"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1864.634,"endTime":1869.304,"body":"reasons and that might bias the results."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1869.844,"endTime":1874.614,"body":"Or it may be that if we're looking at"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1869.844,"endTime":1874.614,"body":"how much a blood pressure pill drops"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1874.614,"endTime":1878.5240000000001,"body":"our blood pressure by, if the pill"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1874.614,"endTime":1878.5240000000001,"body":"which drops the blood pressure the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1878.5240000000001,"endTime":1883.144,"body":"most also kills patients, then the fact"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1878.5240000000001,"endTime":1883.144,"body":"that patients drop out of our data set."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1883.56,"endTime":1887.79,"body":"Because they die, it's going"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1883.56,"endTime":1887.79,"body":"to sort of dilute the observed"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1887.8,"endTime":1891.27,"body":"treatment effect from the pill"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1887.8,"endTime":1891.27,"body":"which drops blood pressure the most."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1892.23,"endTime":1896.799,"body":"So, there's really no end to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1892.23,"endTime":1896.799,"body":"the potential sources of bias."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1897.07,"endTime":1900.64,"body":"They can be sort of typically categorised"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1897.07,"endTime":1900.64,"body":"into some of the more common forms,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1900.64,"endTime":1902.269,"body":"but it can be anything really."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1902.269,"endTime":1906.0900000000001,"body":"It's anything which generates"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1902.269,"endTime":1906.0900000000001,"body":"a systematic deviation from"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1907.875,"endTime":1910.4750000000001,"body":"Yeah, but in that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1907.875,"endTime":1910.4750000000001,"body":"pill discussion, if you had a red"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1910.4850000000001,"endTime":1914.214,"body":"pill versus a blue pill, the blue"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1910.4850000000001,"endTime":1914.214,"body":"pill might be more calming and get a"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1914.2150000000001,"endTime":1917.525,"body":"slightly better drop in blood pressure"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1914.2150000000001,"endTime":1917.525,"body":"because of the placebo effect as well."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1917.9850000000001,"endTime":1920.255,"body":"And that can lead to a"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1917.9850000000001,"endTime":1920.255,"body":"treatment bias as well."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1920.255,"endTime":1920.864,"body":"Is that correct?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1920.934,"endTime":1922.094,"body":"Yes, absolutely."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1922.795,"endTime":1924.654,"body":"Is there any other"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1922.795,"endTime":1924.654,"body":"particular things you'd like to do"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1924.654,"endTime":1928.7050000000002,"body":"in a study apart from excluding bias"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1924.654,"endTime":1928.7050000000002,"body":"and make sure it's been assessed"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1929.065,"endTime":1931.425,"body":"appropriately and conducted appropriately?"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1931.575,"endTime":1933.935,"body":"Is there anything else that could"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1931.575,"endTime":1933.935,"body":"make a better study overall?"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":1933.935,"endTime":1933.949,"body":"Yes, absolutely."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1935.94,"endTime":1940.3500000000001,"body":"Yeah, so some of the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1935.94,"endTime":1940.3500000000001,"body":"other more important points are probably"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1940.3500000000001,"endTime":1943.2,"body":"to register your study prospectively."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1943.44,"endTime":1947.6490000000001,"body":"Publicly announcing what it is you're"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1943.44,"endTime":1947.6490000000001,"body":"going to do, who are you going to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1947.6490000000001,"endTime":1952.03,"body":"study, what parameters are you going"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1947.6490000000001,"endTime":1952.03,"body":"to collect, what is actually your"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1952.03,"endTime":1955.71,"body":"primary outcome of interest, and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1952.03,"endTime":1955.71,"body":"how are you going to analyse it."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1956.02,"endTime":1959.6000000000001,"body":"If you can describe all of those"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1956.02,"endTime":1959.6000000000001,"body":"things before you start your study,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1959.91,"endTime":1963.38,"body":"that gives you much more faith"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1959.91,"endTime":1963.38,"body":"that there's a, it's a valid."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1963.74,"endTime":1965.24,"body":"Result and conclusion."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1965.8,"endTime":1970.0900000000001,"body":"The alternative to doing that is"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1965.8,"endTime":1970.0900000000001,"body":"to not publicly disclose any of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1970.0900000000001,"endTime":1973.57,"body":"those things and simply publish"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1970.0900000000001,"endTime":1973.57,"body":"your results and describe your"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1973.57,"endTime":1976.05,"body":"conclusions after the study's conduct."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1976.31,"endTime":1980.51,"body":"The problem with doing that is this"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1976.31,"endTime":1980.51,"body":"phenomenon of p value hunting which"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1980.6090000000002,"endTime":1984.39,"body":"is a symptom of the publication"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1980.6090000000002,"endTime":1984.39,"body":"bias that we referred to earlier."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1984.99,"endTime":1990.26,"body":"So authors know that their studies are"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1984.99,"endTime":1990.26,"body":"more likely to be published if there's a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1990.26,"endTime":1996.115,"body":"difference between their groups and often"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1990.26,"endTime":1996.115,"body":"Scientists, clinician researchers will"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1996.195,"endTime":2001.385,"body":"conduct studies because they think that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":1996.195,"endTime":2001.385,"body":"there is an effect there to be observed."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2001.815,"endTime":2007.794,"body":"And so if people are then left to their"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2001.815,"endTime":2007.794,"body":"own devices, some of those inherent human"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2007.795,"endTime":2013.325,"body":"biases can come out and, and people can"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2007.795,"endTime":2013.325,"body":"sort of, you know, change the outcome"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2013.325,"endTime":2016.2350000000001,"body":"that they were initially intending"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2013.325,"endTime":2016.2350000000001,"body":"to look at because one of the other"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2016.2350000000001,"endTime":2020.155,"body":"outcomes they collected in their study"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2016.2350000000001,"endTime":2020.155,"body":"now seems a much more interesting result."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2020.265,"endTime":2022.755,"body":"You know, there's a difference"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2020.265,"endTime":2022.755,"body":"between the two groups and it's."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2023.095,"endTime":2026.355,"body":"Now seems, you know, quite"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2023.095,"endTime":2026.355,"body":"clinically important, so maybe"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2026.355,"endTime":2027.815,"body":"we'll report this one instead."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2028.085,"endTime":2030.875,"body":"Or they'll slightly change the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2028.085,"endTime":2030.875,"body":"definition of how they define their"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2030.875,"endTime":2034.825,"body":"primary outcome and, and report that,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2030.875,"endTime":2034.825,"body":"the newly defined version because that,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2034.895,"endTime":2038.2450000000001,"body":"that provides a more statistically"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2034.895,"endTime":2038.2450000000001,"body":"significant and interesting result."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2038.374,"endTime":2043.775,"body":"So registering studies, protocols and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2038.374,"endTime":2043.775,"body":"statistical analysis plans prospectively"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2043.775,"endTime":2045.525,"body":"helps to guard against those things."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2046.7450000000001,"endTime":2048.365,"body":"And obviously"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2046.7450000000001,"endTime":2048.365,"body":"for the listener, there's just"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2048.365,"endTime":2051.225,"body":"things that can creep into studies"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2048.365,"endTime":2051.225,"body":"and we need to watch out for."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2052.1749999999997,"endTime":2056.3849999999998,"body":"Yeah, I mean, people"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2052.1749999999997,"endTime":2056.3849999999998,"body":"do study this from time to time."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2056.3849999999998,"endTime":2061.115,"body":"They'll take random samples from"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2056.3849999999998,"endTime":2061.115,"body":"even quite respectable journals"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2061.2239999999997,"endTime":2064.705,"body":"and examine the incidents with"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2061.2239999999997,"endTime":2064.705,"body":"which some of these things happen."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2064.8849999999998,"endTime":2068.254,"body":"And whilst it's, you know, it's not to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2064.8849999999998,"endTime":2068.254,"body":"say that this happens all the time and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2068.254,"endTime":2074.205,"body":"everyone does it, it certainly has a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2068.254,"endTime":2074.205,"body":"significant prevalence in the medical"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2074.205,"endTime":2075.765,"body":"literature across all disciplines."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2076.825,"endTime":2079.185,"body":"And what are the red flags"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2076.825,"endTime":2079.185,"body":"that we need to look for in that scenario?"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2079.185,"endTime":2080.815,"body":"Is it just the things"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2079.185,"endTime":2080.815,"body":"you've already talked about?"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2080.815,"endTime":2083.185,"body":"Are there anything particular"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2080.815,"endTime":2083.185,"body":"that comes to mind that you see?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2084.1749999999997,"endTime":2088.365,"body":"I mean, by and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2084.1749999999997,"endTime":2088.365,"body":"large, it's the opposite of all of the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2088.375,"endTime":2091.674,"body":"things we've just talked about, um,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2088.375,"endTime":2091.674,"body":"that are the markers of good research."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2092.355,"endTime":2096.554,"body":"And anytime you don't see those"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2092.355,"endTime":2096.554,"body":"potential markers of bad research."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2097.464,"endTime":2101.878,"body":"Another thing that can help sometimes"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2097.464,"endTime":2101.878,"body":"in a study to set your mind at ease"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2101.878,"endTime":2107.715,"body":"that A finding is robust and true is a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2101.878,"endTime":2107.715,"body":"sensitivity analysis because sometimes"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2108.515,"endTime":2115.365,"body":"despite our best intentions there are"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2108.515,"endTime":2115.365,"body":"actually multiple valid ways of defining"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2115.365,"endTime":2120.9149999999995,"body":"an outcome or analyzing a particular"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2115.365,"endTime":2120.9149999999995,"body":"variable and those different definitions"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2120.9149999999995,"endTime":2125.0649999999996,"body":"and analysis methods can each have"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2120.9149999999995,"endTime":2125.0649999999996,"body":"their own assumptions and drawbacks."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2125.095,"endTime":2129.765,"body":"Not, not that they're necessarily"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2125.095,"endTime":2129.765,"body":"wrong to do it that way but there"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2129.765,"endTime":2134.9199999999996,"body":"are just some assumptions that are"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2129.765,"endTime":2134.9199999999996,"body":"made as part of the analysis process."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2136.0399999999995,"endTime":2142.9289999999996,"body":"So sensitivity analyses are designed to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2136.0399999999995,"endTime":2142.9289999999996,"body":"ask the question, what if we didn't make"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2142.939,"endTime":2147.5589999999997,"body":"those assumptions or what, so what if"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2142.939,"endTime":2147.5589999999997,"body":"we use the alternative but also valid"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2147.5589999999997,"endTime":2149.439,"body":"definition of the primary outcome?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2149.8399999999997,"endTime":2154.5699999999997,"body":"What if we analysed it in a different"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2149.8399999999997,"endTime":2154.5699999999997,"body":"way which is also considered appropriate?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2155.1299999999997,"endTime":2156.41,"body":"you know, in our field."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2156.49,"endTime":2162.62,"body":"So going through that process and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2156.49,"endTime":2162.62,"body":"then verifying if we didn't make"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2162.62,"endTime":2165.3799999999997,"body":"these assumptions and we did it"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2162.62,"endTime":2165.3799999999997,"body":"this alternative way, do we end up"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2165.3799999999997,"endTime":2169.0099999999998,"body":"with the same study conclusion or"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2165.3799999999997,"endTime":2169.0099999999998,"body":"does it change our study conclusion?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2169.689,"endTime":2172.6789999999996,"body":"So if you, if you do a range of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2169.689,"endTime":2172.6789999999996,"body":"sensitivity analyses and you get a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2172.6789999999996,"endTime":2177.0499999999997,"body":"different answer each time, that's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2172.6789999999996,"endTime":2177.0499999999997,"body":"quite unsettling in terms of You know,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2177.12,"endTime":2181.21,"body":"being able to have confidence in the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2177.12,"endTime":2181.21,"body":"result, whereas if there's a range"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2181.21,"endTime":2185.779,"body":"of sensitivity analyses that are done"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2181.21,"endTime":2185.779,"body":"and they all support the same study"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2185.779,"endTime":2190.0589999999997,"body":"conclusion, then you can have a lot more"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2185.779,"endTime":2190.0589999999997,"body":"confidence that these little assumptions"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2190.06,"endTime":2193.6589999999997,"body":"that are made each step along the way"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2190.06,"endTime":2193.6589999999997,"body":"in the analysis and the definition"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2193.66,"endTime":2198.5,"body":"of outcomes and perhaps the choice of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2193.66,"endTime":2198.5,"body":"the primary outcome as well are not"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2198.5,"endTime":2200.4399999999996,"body":"making or breaking the study, I guess."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2201.27,"endTime":2203.08,"body":"A question that's"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2201.27,"endTime":2203.08,"body":"come to mind while we're speaking,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2203.0899999999997,"endTime":2206.049,"body":"are there any tools to help you"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2203.0899999999997,"endTime":2206.049,"body":"analyse the research you're reading?"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2206.4399999999996,"endTime":2210.71,"body":"Are there any guides at all, particular"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2206.4399999999996,"endTime":2210.71,"body":"checkboxes you need to look at?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2211.22,"endTime":2212.1,"body":"Yeah, there are."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2212.1,"endTime":2217.33,"body":"There are some really useful"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2212.1,"endTime":2217.33,"body":"guides, checkboxes, and help kits."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2217.46,"endTime":2221.459,"body":"Probably the best one to know about,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2217.46,"endTime":2221.459,"body":"which is the most widely applicable"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2221.459,"endTime":2227.33,"body":"across all study designs and all research,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2221.459,"endTime":2227.33,"body":"are the consort tools and checklists."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2229.265,"endTime":2233.7349999999997,"body":"The CONSORT was a group that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2229.265,"endTime":2233.7349999999997,"body":"was formed, um, designed to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2233.7749999999996,"endTime":2235.9049999999997,"body":"promote high quality research."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2235.975,"endTime":2240.5739999999996,"body":"And they have produced a range"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2235.975,"endTime":2240.5739999999996,"body":"of guidelines and checklists,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2240.7749999999996,"endTime":2243.694,"body":"which are really good if you're"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2240.7749999999996,"endTime":2243.694,"body":"thinking of designing a study to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2243.6949999999997,"endTime":2246.515,"body":"use, but also as a reader as well."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2246.5449999999996,"endTime":2250.035,"body":"You know, any time you pick up a new"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2246.5449999999996,"endTime":2250.035,"body":"study and read it, if you're running"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2250.035,"endTime":2251.475,"body":"a journal club or anything like that."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2251.895,"endTime":2255.855,"body":"They can be a fantastic resource"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2251.895,"endTime":2255.855,"body":"to use and they've got a different"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2255.855,"endTime":2257.745,"body":"checklist for different scenarios."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2257.935,"endTime":2260.8149999999996,"body":"There's a guide and a checklist"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2257.935,"endTime":2260.8149999999996,"body":"for randomised control trials,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2260.8149999999996,"endTime":2264.4449999999997,"body":"there's one for meta analyses,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2260.8149999999996,"endTime":2264.4449999999997,"body":"there's one for observational"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2264.455,"endTime":2266.7349999999997,"body":"studies and they're very useful."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2267.145,"endTime":2269.004,"body":"So what sort"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2267.145,"endTime":2269.004,"body":"of are the common tests we need"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2269.004,"endTime":2270.6549999999997,"body":"to know or should be aware of?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2271.125,"endTime":2276.225,"body":"I think the most common"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2271.125,"endTime":2276.225,"body":"test being used at the moment would be"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2276.4649999999997,"endTime":2279.055,"body":"a student's t test for continuous data."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2279.479,"endTime":2283.49,"body":"And a chi squared test or Fisher's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2279.479,"endTime":2283.49,"body":"exact test for categorical data."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2283.8399999999997,"endTime":2290.2799999999997,"body":"Those two tests are relatively easy"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2283.8399999999997,"endTime":2290.2799999999997,"body":"to calculate and are very robust"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2290.5899999999997,"endTime":2292.6189999999997,"body":"in a range of different scenarios."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2292.6299999999997,"endTime":2298.74,"body":"So they've become commonly used"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2292.6299999999997,"endTime":2298.74,"body":"tests for good reason and they can be"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2298.74,"endTime":2301.8399999999997,"body":"applied to a large range of scenarios."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2301.8489999999997,"endTime":2303.8799999999997,"body":"So they are good ones to know about."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2304.1589999999997,"endTime":2307.245,"body":"In terms of, um, how many"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2304.1589999999997,"endTime":2307.245,"body":"other tests there are."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2307.685,"endTime":2311.6949999999997,"body":"There are a huge gamut of different"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2307.685,"endTime":2311.6949999999997,"body":"tests out there and whether or"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2311.6949999999997,"endTime":2313.245,"body":"not to consult a statistician."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2313.805,"endTime":2318.4139999999998,"body":"There are some scenarios where I think if"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2313.805,"endTime":2318.4139999999998,"body":"you feel confident to analyze a data set"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2318.4739999999997,"endTime":2323.1349999999998,"body":"yourself then that can be a great thing"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2318.4739999999997,"endTime":2323.1349999999998,"body":"and there are other times when you know if"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2323.1349999999998,"endTime":2327.5249999999996,"body":"you feel not so confident that involving"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2323.1349999999998,"endTime":2327.5249999999996,"body":"a statistician is a really good thing to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2327.5249999999996,"endTime":2332.845,"body":"do and that you know there's a range of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2327.5249999999996,"endTime":2332.845,"body":"complexities in data sets and analyses"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2333.075,"endTime":2335.104,"body":"and so where you sit as an individual."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2335.5139999999997,"endTime":2339.124,"body":"And where the study data set and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2335.5139999999997,"endTime":2339.124,"body":"analysis sits on that spectrum"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2339.5449999999996,"endTime":2342.8239999999996,"body":"is always going to be a different"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2339.5449999999996,"endTime":2342.8239999999996,"body":"beast for different projects."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2343.1749999999997,"endTime":2347.374,"body":"I guess the one thing I've learned in"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2343.1749999999997,"endTime":2347.374,"body":"my statistical studies over the years is"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2347.384,"endTime":2350.2239999999997,"body":"how easy it is to get it wrong sometimes."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2350.384,"endTime":2353.9139999999998,"body":"So I've certainly learned"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2350.384,"endTime":2353.9139999999998,"body":"to have a very low threshold"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2353.9139999999998,"endTime":2355.5739999999996,"body":"for involving a statistician."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2356.044,"endTime":2360.734,"body":"You know, even being an accredited"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2356.044,"endTime":2360.734,"body":"statistician myself now, I have a very"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2360.734,"endTime":2362.5139999999997,"body":"low threshold for involving someone else."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2363.0139999999997,"endTime":2366.1639999999998,"body":"Not necessarily for them"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2363.0139999999997,"endTime":2366.1639999999998,"body":"to do the whole analysis."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2366.4539999999997,"endTime":2370.2549999999997,"body":"In some cases where it's outside"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2366.4539999999997,"endTime":2370.2549999999997,"body":"of my scope, I'll ask someone"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2370.374,"endTime":2371.5739999999996,"body":"to do the whole thing for me."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2371.864,"endTime":2377.1749999999997,"body":"And in other scenarios, I might just ask"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2371.864,"endTime":2377.1749999999997,"body":"for some supervision of what I'm doing."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2377.464,"endTime":2379.8849999999998,"body":"So, I think any of those"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2382.489,"endTime":2386.6899999999996,"body":"It's whatever you feel comfortable"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2382.489,"endTime":2386.6899999999996,"body":"with, and even for a given individual"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2386.6989999999996,"endTime":2389.819,"body":"that will vary from project to project"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2386.6989999999996,"endTime":2389.819,"body":"because different projects have"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2390.089,"endTime":2392.0989999999997,"body":"involved different levels of complexity."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2392.379,"endTime":2396.279,"body":"But I'd always err on the side"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2392.379,"endTime":2396.279,"body":"of involving a statistician"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2396.279,"endTime":2397.1699999999996,"body":"if you're not sure."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2397.319,"endTime":2401.749,"body":"And I would always err on the side"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2397.319,"endTime":2401.749,"body":"of doing this work and putting"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2401.749,"endTime":2404.4399999999996,"body":"this thinking in and involving the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2401.749,"endTime":2404.4399999999996,"body":"statistician if you're going to do it."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2405.0789999999997,"endTime":2409.649,"body":"earlier rather than later in the project,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2405.0789999999997,"endTime":2409.649,"body":"you know, ideally in the design phase,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2409.6589999999997,"endTime":2413.669,"body":"the initial design phase of any study"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2409.6589999999997,"endTime":2413.669,"body":"is where that involvement should come."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2414.0389999999998,"endTime":2417.049,"body":"Healthcare professionals,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2414.0389999999998,"endTime":2417.049,"body":"how can they integrate this sort of"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2417.109,"endTime":2420.209,"body":"assessments of studies and better"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2417.109,"endTime":2420.209,"body":"evidence based medicine into their"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2420.209,"endTime":2421.6389999999997,"body":"clinical practice effectively?"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2422.0789999999997,"endTime":2423.269,"body":"What are your thoughts on this?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2423.8689999999997,"endTime":2424.919,"body":"Uh, that's a tricky one."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2425.399,"endTime":2431.149,"body":"So changing clinical practice is difficult"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2425.399,"endTime":2431.149,"body":"and definitely not my area of expertise."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2431.839,"endTime":2437.109,"body":"You know, I think understanding the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2431.839,"endTime":2437.109,"body":"evidence is the first step, uh, and that's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2437.1389999999997,"endTime":2439.609,"body":"certainly where I am more comfortable."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2439.939,"endTime":2445.0389999999998,"body":"From there, I think, you know, there"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2439.939,"endTime":2445.0389999999998,"body":"are many other organisational and"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2445.089,"endTime":2449.3489999999997,"body":"interpersonal elements that start"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2445.089,"endTime":2449.3489999999997,"body":"to become increasingly important."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2449.794,"endTime":2452.714,"body":"And I guess, you know, how"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2449.794,"endTime":2452.714,"body":"do you make that transition?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2453.004,"endTime":2456.9939999999997,"body":"I guess starting to talk to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2453.004,"endTime":2456.9939999999997,"body":"your colleagues about this new"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2457.0139999999997,"endTime":2460.254,"body":"evidence that you've read is"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2457.0139999999997,"endTime":2460.254,"body":"probably the first good step."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2460.4739999999997,"endTime":2465.134,"body":"You'll get a little bit of feedback"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2460.4739999999997,"endTime":2465.134,"body":"from them and if you both agree, hey,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2465.134,"endTime":2468.854,"body":"this is a promising new revelation,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2465.134,"endTime":2468.854,"body":"you know, maybe we should look at"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2469.0539999999996,"endTime":2473.9539999999997,"body":"changing our practice, at least then"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2469.0539999999996,"endTime":2473.9539999999997,"body":"you've got a friend alongside you."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2474.024,"endTime":2478.919,"body":"So, that's probably As far as I"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2474.024,"endTime":2478.919,"body":"would take it in terms of, you"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2478.919,"endTime":2480.4689999999996,"body":"know, my level of expertise."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2480.489,"endTime":2483.299,"body":"After that, you know, there are lots"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2480.489,"endTime":2483.299,"body":"of other people out there, lots of my"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2483.299,"endTime":2489.029,"body":"colleagues who are much better versed"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2483.299,"endTime":2489.029,"body":"in the ideas of quality improvement"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2489.249,"endTime":2492.4289999999996,"body":"programs and organizational change."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2492.669,"endTime":2495.629,"body":"The role of managers, um, comes into that."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2495.6589999999997,"endTime":2500.1189999999997,"body":"It starts to become, you know,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2495.6589999999997,"endTime":2500.1189999999997,"body":"managerial domain as well."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2500.239,"endTime":2500.4289999999996,"body":"So."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2501.5789999999997,"endTime":2505.269,"body":"Depending on what the change is that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2501.5789999999997,"endTime":2505.269,"body":"you're trying to implement can be quite"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2505.319,"endTime":2510.5589999999997,"body":"complicated and difficult, and whether"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2505.319,"endTime":2510.5589999999997,"body":"or not there's evidence to support"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2510.649,"endTime":2514.1989999999996,"body":"efficacy in terms of patient outcomes,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2510.649,"endTime":2514.1989999999996,"body":"or cost effectiveness in terms of"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2514.749,"endTime":2520.8889999999997,"body":"healthcare dollar savings, is almost"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2514.749,"endTime":2520.8889999999997,"body":"one small part of a much more complex"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2521.029,"endTime":2524.779,"body":"piece of machinery to actually make that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2521.029,"endTime":2524.779,"body":"change in clinical practice, I'd say."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2525.239,"endTime":2528.8089999999997,"body":"I'm also aware that there's a science"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2525.239,"endTime":2528.8089999999997,"body":"behind this change in clinical"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2528.8089999999997,"endTime":2533.3439999999996,"body":"practice as well, so keep It's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2528.8089999999997,"endTime":2533.3439999999996,"body":"not really my area of expertise."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2533.7639999999997,"endTime":2536.374,"body":"Well what we've"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2533.7639999999997,"endTime":2536.374,"body":"really summarised is that statistics"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2536.374,"endTime":2537.814,"body":"are important to analysing results."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2537.864,"endTime":2541.924,"body":"But unless you do a properly conducted"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2537.864,"endTime":2541.924,"body":"study, assessing what biases there"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2541.924,"endTime":2545.874,"body":"might be, outlining what you're planning"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2541.924,"endTime":2545.874,"body":"to assess along the way, and using"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2545.874,"endTime":2550.2439999999997,"body":"appropriate statistics to analyse that,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2545.874,"endTime":2550.2439999999997,"body":"then you can't really be confident that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2550.2439999999997,"endTime":2553.754,"body":"the results you're showing are definitely"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2550.2439999999997,"endTime":2553.754,"body":"what is actually happening in real life."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2554.354,"endTime":2558.124,"body":"You've also got to assess studies that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2554.354,"endTime":2558.124,"body":"you're reading in a similar fashion."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2558.4739999999997,"endTime":2560.8039999999996,"body":"And use tools such as that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2558.4739999999997,"endTime":2560.8039999999996,"body":"from, you've mentioned, like"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2560.864,"endTime":2562.214,"body":"the CONSORT to assess them."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2562.814,"endTime":2565.854,"body":"And also being aware that when you"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2562.814,"endTime":2565.854,"body":"do assess a result, that it could be"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2565.854,"endTime":2569.654,"body":"useful in clinical practice to involve"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2565.854,"endTime":2569.654,"body":"a team to help critically assessing it."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2570.3039999999996,"endTime":2572.694,"body":"Would that be a good summary of"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2570.3039999999996,"endTime":2572.694,"body":"what we've been discussing today?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2572.984,"endTime":2574.634,"body":"Yeah, I think"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2572.984,"endTime":2574.634,"body":"that's a fantastic summary."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2574.7639999999997,"endTime":2575.334,"body":"Well done."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2575.725,"endTime":2577.4339999999997,"body":"I've always"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2575.725,"endTime":2577.4339999999997,"body":"liked to finish off about the"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2577.4339999999997,"endTime":2579.044,"body":"use of artificial intelligence."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2579.174,"endTime":2582.024,"body":"What about the role of artificial"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2579.174,"endTime":2582.024,"body":"intelligence in helping analyse data,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2582.024,"endTime":2586.4939999999997,"body":"or is that going to have a greater risk"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2582.024,"endTime":2586.4939999999997,"body":"of introducing biases along the way."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2587.134,"endTime":2589.904,"body":"Oh look, I think"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2587.134,"endTime":2589.904,"body":"you've hit the nail on the head."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2589.9139999999998,"endTime":2595.2439999999997,"body":"It has huge potential, but"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2589.9139999999998,"endTime":2595.2439999999997,"body":"there are also the potential"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2595.2439999999997,"endTime":2597.714,"body":"for major biases and problems."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2598.254,"endTime":2603.4339999999997,"body":"I think artificial intelligence"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2598.254,"endTime":2603.4339999999997,"body":"covers a range of different concepts."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2603.5539999999996,"endTime":2610.604,"body":"The one which is probably most relevant to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2603.5539999999996,"endTime":2610.604,"body":"statistics is probably machine learning."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2611.424,"endTime":2618.424,"body":"Machine learning is a way of analysing"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2611.424,"endTime":2618.424,"body":"data based on some automated, pre"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2618.424,"endTime":2626.374,"body":"specified rules, but usually it is a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2618.424,"endTime":2626.374,"body":"multi layered process, or a process which"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2626.384,"endTime":2629.044,"body":"feeds back on itself numerous times."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2629.084,"endTime":2633.144,"body":"But each layer, or each time it"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2629.084,"endTime":2633.144,"body":"conducts this process, it's usually"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2633.144,"endTime":2638.8439999999996,"body":"doing some sort of relatively"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2633.144,"endTime":2638.8439999999996,"body":"simple or straightforward analysis."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2639.3439999999996,"endTime":2643.0539999999996,"body":"analysis technique, which"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2639.3439999999996,"endTime":2643.0539999999996,"body":"is not new, something that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2643.0539999999996,"endTime":2644.1839999999997,"body":"already exists in the world."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2644.4339999999997,"endTime":2647.4339999999997,"body":"For example, something like"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2644.4339999999997,"endTime":2647.4339999999997,"body":"a logistic regression model."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2647.4339999999997,"endTime":2651.274,"body":"If you have a binary outcome, you"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2647.4339999999997,"endTime":2651.274,"body":"know, a machine learning model might"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2651.274,"endTime":2655.625,"body":"use something like a random forest"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2651.274,"endTime":2655.625,"body":"program, and that can use a series"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2655.654,"endTime":2661.654,"body":"of layered logistic regression models"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2655.654,"endTime":2661.654,"body":"to decide a final binary outcome."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2662.8889999999997,"endTime":2669.1189999999997,"body":"And it, it does that without necessarily"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2662.8889999999997,"endTime":2669.1189999999997,"body":"disclosing a lot of the information."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2669.989,"endTime":2673.3089999999997,"body":"I think what, maybe one of the things"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2669.989,"endTime":2673.3089999999997,"body":"we could have talked about earlier"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2673.3089999999997,"endTime":2679.149,"body":"that now becomes relevant to assessing"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2673.3089999999997,"endTime":2679.149,"body":"AI stuff is it's always good to see"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2679.319,"endTime":2684.4289999999996,"body":"the diagnostics of any of the analysis"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2679.319,"endTime":2684.4289999999996,"body":"plans that have been done in studies."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2684.5989999999997,"endTime":2692.3889999999997,"body":"So ideally if people can present their"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2684.5989999999997,"endTime":2692.3889999999997,"body":"study data set in a de identified Present"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2692.399,"endTime":2694.9339999999997,"body":"the code that they use to analyse it."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2695.214,"endTime":2698.624,"body":"And some techniques such as"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2695.214,"endTime":2698.624,"body":"regression models can often be"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2698.9539999999997,"endTime":2703.524,"body":"tested to see how well the model"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2698.9539999999997,"endTime":2703.524,"body":"actually fits your observed data."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2703.5539999999996,"endTime":2706.544,"body":"So those model diagnostics can be"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2703.5539999999996,"endTime":2706.544,"body":"really good to present as well."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2706.9139999999998,"endTime":2710.884,"body":"So there are some things that can be"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2706.9139999999998,"endTime":2710.884,"body":"good to look for in good research."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2710.904,"endTime":2715.084,"body":"And the absence of those things can"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2710.904,"endTime":2715.084,"body":"sometimes be a flag for bad research."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2715.2239999999997,"endTime":2718.3239999999996,"body":"With AI it just takes that to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2715.2239999999997,"endTime":2718.3239999999996,"body":"the next level because it's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2718.3239999999996,"endTime":2720.7639999999997,"body":"doing so much computational work."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2720.794,"endTime":2725.124,"body":"It requires a lot of code and there's a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2720.794,"endTime":2725.124,"body":"lot of output from the code because it's"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2725.124,"endTime":2729.0139999999997,"body":"running multiple models again and again"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2725.124,"endTime":2729.0139999999997,"body":"and again in this iterative process."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2729.404,"endTime":2733.0139999999997,"body":"But really the only way to be sure"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2729.404,"endTime":2733.0139999999997,"body":"that they haven't done something"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2733.0249999999996,"endTime":2738.024,"body":"silly is to look at all of that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2733.0249999999996,"endTime":2738.024,"body":"code and all of that output."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2738.424,"endTime":2743.834,"body":"And so we don't necessarily expect that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2738.424,"endTime":2743.834,"body":"everyone We'll be able to understand that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2743.834,"endTime":2746.6839999999997,"body":"code and that output, but some people can."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2746.774,"endTime":2752.0539999999996,"body":"And, uh, I think the one thing that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2746.774,"endTime":2752.0539999999996,"body":"we would ask is that those things are"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2752.384,"endTime":2758.114,"body":"published each and every time someone"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2752.384,"endTime":2758.114,"body":"uses, um, machine learning as part"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2758.114,"endTime":2760.1839999999997,"body":"of an analysis method for a study."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2760.334,"endTime":2765.944,"body":"Simply to publish the, the code,"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2760.334,"endTime":2765.944,"body":"ideally the data set, um, uh, and the"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2765.944,"endTime":2768.4339999999997,"body":"output so that it, it can be verified."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2769.479,"endTime":2772.769,"body":"Basically, without knowing"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2769.479,"endTime":2772.769,"body":"all the intricacies of what is actually"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2772.769,"endTime":2777.149,"body":"computing, you really can't be sure that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2772.769,"endTime":2777.149,"body":"the numbers that come out are correct."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2777.2189999999996,"endTime":2777.9689999999996,"body":"No, that's right."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2778.029,"endTime":2780.709,"body":"There are some scenarios where"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2778.029,"endTime":2780.709,"body":"it can be really useful too."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2780.759,"endTime":2784.5589999999997,"body":"Like I think in something like image"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2780.759,"endTime":2784.5589999999997,"body":"recognition, pattern recognition"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2784.589,"endTime":2789.919,"body":"aspect of it, through an iterative"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2784.589,"endTime":2789.919,"body":"process, can be extremely useful."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2789.939,"endTime":2794.279,"body":"But you contrast that against"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2789.939,"endTime":2794.279,"body":"something that has a numerical outcome."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2794.279,"endTime":2798.479,"body":"For example, if we come back to our"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2794.279,"endTime":2798.479,"body":"blood pressure, scenario, usually in"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2798.479,"endTime":2803.189,"body":"a blood pressure study, the outcome"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2798.479,"endTime":2803.189,"body":"is a number which can be calculated"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2803.5389999999998,"endTime":2806.419,"body":"based on a relatively simple formula."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2806.669,"endTime":2810.629,"body":"So you'll see some people occasionally"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2806.669,"endTime":2810.629,"body":"applying something like a machine"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2810.629,"endTime":2814.379,"body":"learning model to calculate a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2810.629,"endTime":2814.379,"body":"blood pressure study outcome."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2814.884,"endTime":2820.924,"body":"And that's a huge waste of computational"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2814.884,"endTime":2820.924,"body":"power and using an iterative process"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2820.9339999999997,"endTime":2824.0539999999996,"body":"which starts with a sort of a random"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2820.9339999999997,"endTime":2824.0539999999996,"body":"guess as to what the number might"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2824.0539999999996,"endTime":2827.4339999999997,"body":"be and gradually narrows it down"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2824.0539999999996,"endTime":2827.4339999999997,"body":"based on your observed data set."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2827.504,"endTime":2829.504,"body":"When you could actually just calculate."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2830.1389999999997,"endTime":2833.3489999999997,"body":"what that value should be through"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2830.1389999999997,"endTime":2833.3489999999997,"body":"a relatively simple formula."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2833.629,"endTime":2835.739,"body":"So sometimes it gets a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2833.629,"endTime":2835.739,"body":"little bit misused as well."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2835.739,"endTime":2839.379,"body":"It's become a bit of a sexy term that"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2835.739,"endTime":2839.379,"body":"people like to apply to whatever it is"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2839.379,"endTime":2843.1789999999996,"body":"they're doing irrespective of whether"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2839.379,"endTime":2843.1789999999996,"body":"it's actually the most elegant or"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2843.1789999999996,"endTime":2845.459,"body":"accurate way of deriving the answer."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2845.6789999999996,"endTime":2848.419,"body":"Well finishing off"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2845.6789999999996,"endTime":2848.419,"body":"with that blood pressure model, would"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2848.419,"endTime":2851.779,"body":"you use a chi square test or student"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2848.419,"endTime":2851.779,"body":"test to analyze the differences in"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2851.779,"endTime":2855.0389999999998,"body":"blood pressure after treatment or what"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2851.779,"endTime":2855.0389999999998,"body":"would you tend to use in that scenario?"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2856.359,"endTime":2859.609,"body":"Yeah, so blood"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2856.359,"endTime":2859.609,"body":"pressure is a numerical outcome"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2859.629,"endTime":2864.4689999999996,"body":"which theoretically could take on any"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2859.629,"endTime":2864.4689999999996,"body":"number of values not just integers."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2864.759,"endTime":2869.669,"body":"So it's a good example of a"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2864.759,"endTime":2869.669,"body":"continuous variable and we know"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2869.7889999999998,"endTime":2873.839,"body":"that it's relatively normally"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2869.7889999999998,"endTime":2873.839,"body":"distributed amongst most populations."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2873.8489999999997,"endTime":2879.0389999999998,"body":"So we can use a student's t test to"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2873.8489999999997,"endTime":2879.0389999999998,"body":"analyse it or a linear regression"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2879.0389999999998,"endTime":2883.489,"body":"model are two good ways it should"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2879.0389999999998,"endTime":2883.489,"body":"give you the same answer essentially."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2885.5389999999998,"endTime":2887.2189999999996,"body":"Well look Adam,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2885.5389999999998,"endTime":2887.2189999999996,"body":"thank you very much for coming on"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2887.3089999999997,"endTime":2891.3089999999997,"body":"Aussie Med Ed and enlightening us on"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2887.3089999999997,"endTime":2891.3089999999997,"body":"statistics and the use of medicine."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2891.519,"endTime":2892.709,"body":"So thank you very much."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2893.4089999999997,"endTime":2895.0989999999997,"body":"No worries"},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2893.4089999999997,"endTime":2895.0989999999997,"body":"Gavin, thanks for having me on."},{"speaker":"Dr Adam Badenoch","startTime":2895.379,"endTime":2896.459,"body":"It's been great to be a part of your show."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2897.4489999999996,"endTime":2898.799,"body":"That's"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2897.4489999999996,"endTime":2898.799,"body":"brilliant, thank you once again."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2898.989,"endTime":2901.6189999999997,"body":"I'd like to remind you that all the"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2898.989,"endTime":2901.6189999999997,"body":"information presented today is just"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2901.6189999999997,"endTime":2904.709,"body":"one opinion and that there are numerous"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2901.6189999999997,"endTime":2904.709,"body":"ways of treating all medical conditions."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2905.129,"endTime":2907.739,"body":"It's just general advice and may vary"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2905.129,"endTime":2907.739,"body":"depending upon the region in which"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2907.739,"endTime":2909.129,"body":"you are practising or being treated."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2910.089,"endTime":2913.489,"body":"The information may not be appropriate"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2910.089,"endTime":2913.489,"body":"for your situation or health condition"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2913.509,"endTime":2915.9289999999996,"body":"and you should always seek the"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2913.509,"endTime":2915.9289999999996,"body":"advice from your health professionals"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2916.1389999999997,"endTime":2917.0989999999997,"body":"in the area in which you live."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2918.459,"endTime":2920.689,"body":"Also, if you have any concerns"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2918.459,"endTime":2920.689,"body":"about the information raised today,"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2920.999,"endTime":2923.999,"body":"please speak to your GP or seek"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2920.999,"endTime":2923.999,"body":"assistance from health organisations"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2924.359,"endTime":2925.839,"body":"such as Lifeline in Australia."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2926.7889999999998,"endTime":2929.489,"body":"Thanks again for listening to the"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2926.7889999999998,"endTime":2929.489,"body":"podcast and please subscribe to"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2929.489,"endTime":2931.0389999999998,"body":"the podcast for the next episode."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2931.2889999999998,"endTime":2933.0989999999997,"body":"Until then, please stay safe."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2934.169,"endTime":2936.6389999999997,"body":"I'd like to let you know that"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2934.169,"endTime":2936.6389999999997,"body":"Aussie Med Ed is sponsored by Avant"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2936.709,"endTime":2938.3689999999997,"body":"Medical Legal Indemnity Insurance."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2938.9289999999996,"endTime":2942.799,"body":"They tell me they offer holistic support"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2938.9289999999996,"endTime":2942.799,"body":"to help the doctor practice safely and"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2942.799,"endTime":2946.019,"body":"believe they have extensive cover that's"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2942.799,"endTime":2946.019,"body":"continually evolving to meet your needs in"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2946.019,"endTime":2947.769,"body":"the ever changing regulatory environment."},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2947.769,"endTime":2950.6989999999996,"body":"Avant They have a specialist medical"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2947.769,"endTime":2950.6989999999996,"body":"indemnity team located here in"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2950.6989999999996,"endTime":2955.259,"body":"Australia and have access to medical"},{"speaker":"Dr Gavin Nimon","startTime":2950.6989999999996,"endTime":2955.259,"body":"legal experts 24 7 in emergencies."}]}