Breakaway - Investing & Finance
Breakaway from the haters and mainstream thought. Learn about Investing, Finance and the Economy in a plain english and entertaining way. Understand the business environment and make money investing. Uncertainty in the markets driven by crisis, anarchy, politics and craziness is simply opportunity. Facts and truth here.
Breakaway - Investing & Finance
Fires, CA budget, Markets, Meta, Rockets
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Sean Hathaway
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Episode 79
Markets:
- Fed Funds rate lowered from 5.0% to 4.5%, but mortgage went from 6% to 7%.
- Why. Mortgage rates are tied closer 10 year bonds. And with market uncertainty, people buy bonds:
- Example: $100 bond pays 5%.
- Demand drives bond to $98; so implied rate is 7%.
- S&P 500: ~33% is Mag 7
- RSP Equal weight.
- Some correction is healthy.
California Fires
- Firefighters continue attempts to gain control of almost 40,000 acres of ongoing wildfires, which have killed at least 27 people and destroyed more than 12,300 structures. See maps of the fire areas and evacuation zones.
- The Palisades Fire is 31% contained, and the Eaton Fire is 65% contained.
- CA FAIR is insurer of last resort. But they only have $200m in cash and $2.5b in reserves.
- A rule change in CA, requires those providing insurance to cover short-fall, which they will do by subsequently raising insurance for ALL CA residents.
- Already hard to get insurance. State Farm, Allstate = NO.
Govt Regulation and Cost
- From Chamath: A tale of incompetence, grift and corruption…
- Governor Gavin Newsom released his proposed 2024-25 California state budget on January 10, projecting a $38 billion shortfall
- Based on the available data, in 2021, the top 1% of earners in California contributed approximately 49.9% of the state's personal income tax revenue.
- Janisse Quiñones, who makes $750k a year,.
- Here’s a public list of all salaries.
Other Regulation
- Marc Andreessen on China's manufacturing dominance
- Marc Andreessen says America is primed for a new golden age. "We have the people, we have the resources. We have geographic security. We have all of these capabilities."We continue to be the beacon of capitalism and enterprise and entrepreneurship.
- Here’s another one from Alex Karp
Meta
- $1.5t, $655 and up 67% YoY.
- Zuck on Rogan
- TikTok set to go dark on Sunday
Rocket Ships:
- Starships 7th flight test. The landing burn slowed Super Heavy down and maneuvered itself to the launch and catch tower arms, resulting in the second successful catch of a Super Heavy booster.
- Blue Origin: New Glenn made it, but didn’t successfully land the booster.