Levon Zourabian - US-Iran, Russia-Ukraine, Armenia-Azerbaijan, 2026 Campaigns | Ep 439, May 27, 2025 Artwork

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Levon Zourabian - US-Iran, Russia-Ukraine, Armenia-Azerbaijan, 2026 Campaigns | Ep 439, May 27, 2025

May 27, 2025 • Levon Zourabian • Episode 439

Conversations on Groong - May 27, 2025

Topics

US-Iran Nuclear Talks
Russia and Ukraine
Armenia Azerbaijan Talks
Armenian Elections in 2026

Guest

Levon Zourabian

Hosts

Episode 439 | Recorded: May 23, 2025

SHOW NOTES: https://podcasts.groong.org/439

VIDEO: https://youtu.be/CSmca-IgTaE

Subscribe and follow us everywhere you are: linktr.ee/groong

Asbed Bedrossian (00:00:04):
Hello and welcome to this Conversations on Groong episode.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:00:08):
As Armenia heads into the 2026 parliamentary election cycle,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:00:12):
domestic politics and rhetoric is heating up.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:00:16):
The stakes are high, the government's popularity is extremely low, and the future is uncertain.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:00:22):
To discuss the political affairs in the country,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:00:24):
we have with us Mr.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:00:25):
Levon Zourabian,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:00:26):
who is the vice president of the Armenian National Congress Party of Armenia,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:00:30):
the ANC.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:00:32):
Before we dive in, a quick note for our friends.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:00:35):
If you love what you hear and you want to help the Groong gears to keep turning,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:00:41):
you can support us at podcasts.groong.org slash donate.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:00:46):
Whether it's a monthly pledge or a one-time caffeine boost, it is all appreciated.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:00:51):
and we will take it with gratitude.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:00:54):
If times are tight and we get it,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:00:56):
you can still help by commenting,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:00:57):
sharing,

(00:00:58):
liking,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:00:58):
and that gives us a big algorithm boost,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:01:03):
as you know.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:01:04):
So we do appreciate any support you can provide.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:01:07):
Yeah, and not just YouTube.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:01:10):
Go to YouTube, Substack, Twitter, Facebook.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:01:14):
We are everywhere on all the social media.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:01:17):
We're even on Telegram for those of you who use Telegram.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:01:20):
So please participate.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:01:22):
Like Hovik said, comment, share, like with your friends and your enemies.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:01:27):
And now that we're done with our digital panhandling, on with the show.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:01:32):
Hello, Mr. Zorabian.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:01:33):
Welcome back to the Groong Podcast.

Levon Zourabian (00:01:36):
Hello, my dear friends, Asbed and Hovik.

Levon Zourabian (00:01:38):
How are you?

(00:01:41):
Very good.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:01:41):
It's been a long time.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:01:43):
I think we talked a year and a half ago and we should do this more often.

Levon Zourabian (00:01:48):
I completely agree with you.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:01:50):
We have a slew of topics for you today,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:01:52):
but let's start from the regional and we'll come to Armenia at the end.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:01:58):
Trump just finished his first international visit.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:02):
And again, it was to be the Middle East.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:06):
He visited Saudi Arabia,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:07):
the UAE and Qatar,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:09):
I believe,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:10):
and no Israel this time,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:12):
which is curious.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:14):
He has authorized direct U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and has even fired his national

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:21):
security advisor,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:22):
who was apparently coordinating with Israel,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:25):
for an attack on Iran.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:27):
So meanwhile Israel has threatened direct attacks on Iran's

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:32):
nuclear facilities especially if the talks fall apart but it seems even without

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:37):
that.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:38):
Israel is also in the midst of a full-scale genocide of the Palestinians in

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:42):
Gaza and hundreds of people are dying every day civilians starving and full-scale

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:50):
depopulation is under threat

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:54):
Meanwhile,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:55):
on the Iran talks itself,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:02:58):
they are very confusing because sometimes the US officials make statements that

Hovik Manucharyan (00:03:05):
seem to be okay,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:03:07):
like some enrichment is okay and other times,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:03:10):
They make statements that are very extreme,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:03:14):
saying that there is going to be no enrichment,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:03:16):
which basically to me would seem like a red line for Iran.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:03:22):
So it's very confusing where the negotiations themselves are going.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:03:27):
So I just wanted to ask,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:03:29):
it seems like the negotiations are the underpinning of everything in the Middle

Hovik Manucharyan (00:03:32):
East right now.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:03:34):
What are your views on the negotiations with Iran, Mr. Zourabian?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:03:40):
And are you optimistic that there will be a diplomatic solution to this?

Levon Zourabian (00:03:47):
Okay.

Levon Zourabian (00:03:48):
Thank you for this question, because it's a very good starter for our conversation.

(00:03:54):
And,

Levon Zourabian (00:03:54):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:03:55):
the whole situation with Iran-Israeli confrontation bears a lot of significance for

Levon Zourabian (00:04:04):
Armenia's security.

Levon Zourabian (00:04:11):
everybody was witnessing that in its relations with Armenia on the international

Levon Zourabian (00:04:16):
scene Azerbaijan behaves as a bully and is not ashamed of that role and they

Levon Zourabian (00:04:26):
believe it can do, that Azerbaijan can do, whatever it wants with impunity there

Levon Zourabian (00:04:32):
should be some explanation for such posture

Levon Zourabian (00:04:40):
Because despite the fact that Armenia agreed to all demands by Azerbaijan in

Levon Zourabian (00:04:44):
relation to the text of the peace agreement,

Levon Zourabian (00:04:47):
Azerbaijan still rejects signing peace with Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (00:04:52):
And Azerbaijan allows itself a rather impudent tone in its relations with such

Levon Zourabian (00:04:59):
superpowers as the United States,

Levon Zourabian (00:05:02):
France,

Levon Zourabian (00:05:03):
Russia,

Levon Zourabian (00:05:05):
Iran,

Levon Zourabian (00:05:06):
which

Levon Zourabian (00:05:07):
OK,

Levon Zourabian (00:05:08):
we don't consider a superpower,

Levon Zourabian (00:05:10):
but still probably a much more powerful country than Azerbaijan.

Levon Zourabian (00:05:20):
Not to mention that France,

Levon Zourabian (00:05:23):
the United States and Russia are still existing co-chairs of the OSCE group.

Levon Zourabian (00:05:31):
So what is the explanation for such impudence?

Levon Zourabian (00:05:37):
You know, in a sense, Armenia has fallen victim to Israel-Iran confrontation.

Levon Zourabian (00:05:43):
And I will quickly explain.

Levon Zourabian (00:05:49):
For decades,

Levon Zourabian (00:05:50):
Israel was seeking a war of annihilation of Iran as a possible nuclear threat to

Levon Zourabian (00:05:56):
Israeli existence.

Levon Zourabian (00:05:59):
You heard those stories.

Levon Zourabian (00:06:02):
You probably listened to Professor Jeffrey Sachs' analysis on seven wars,

Levon Zourabian (00:06:10):
which actually was not his idea,

Levon Zourabian (00:06:13):
but the idea of Bibi Netanyahu,

Levon Zourabian (00:06:18):
who conveyed that to the United States presidential administration and the NATO

Levon Zourabian (00:06:23):
structures,

Levon Zourabian (00:06:24):
and they were loudly speaking about that.

Levon Zourabian (00:06:30):
Israel considers Azerbaijan as an important strategic ally in that war against Iran.

Levon Zourabian (00:06:38):
For what purposes, you would ask?

Levon Zourabian (00:06:41):
First,

Levon Zourabian (00:06:43):
as a bridgehead from which it can conduct intelligence and military operations

Levon Zourabian (00:06:48):
against Iran.

Levon Zourabian (00:06:49):
That is first.

Levon Zourabian (00:06:52):
Secondly, Israel considers

Levon Zourabian (00:06:59):
Azeri minority of Iran as a very important explosive separatist material that can

Levon Zourabian (00:07:11):
help them to conduct a war of dismemberment of the Iranian state.

Levon Zourabian (00:07:17):
And I mean it when I say dismemberment, because that's the plan.

Levon Zourabian (00:07:22):
They want to create some Azerbaijani state on the territory of Iran that will

Levon Zourabian (00:07:29):
annihilate or reduce the threats from the Iranian state.

Levon Zourabian (00:07:39):
And also,

Levon Zourabian (00:07:40):
they believe that eventually those Azerbaijanis,

Levon Zourabian (00:07:46):
the minority within Iran,

Levon Zourabian (00:07:49):
can become a major supplier of the ground force in the campaign against Iran.

Levon Zourabian (00:07:56):
This is why Israel is helping Azerbaijan so much.

Levon Zourabian (00:07:59):
This is why Israel helped Azerbaijan to design

Levon Zourabian (00:08:05):
its war against Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Levon Zourabian (00:08:08):
It's no secret.

Levon Zourabian (00:08:09):
They provided digital maps of the territory to Azerbaijan,

Levon Zourabian (00:08:13):
as well as both reconnaissance and strike drones and high precision artillery,

Levon Zourabian (00:08:22):
everything to help Azerbaijan to defeat Armenians.

Levon Zourabian (00:08:27):
So Azerbaijan believes that Israel will be able to smoothen any problems

Levon Zourabian (00:08:33):
related to the international pressure in regard with its aggression towards Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (00:08:41):
And it believes that from the very first day of the dual Israeli-American military

Levon Zourabian (00:08:48):
campaign,

Levon Zourabian (00:08:51):
it can attack Armenia without any serious international complications.

Levon Zourabian (00:08:57):
No coincidence that they were speaking very loudly about possible Armenian

Levon Zourabian (00:09:05):
provocations against Azerbaijan to start in April of this year.

Levon Zourabian (00:09:12):
You remember that.

Levon Zourabian (00:09:13):
In their press, they were always speaking about that.

Levon Zourabian (00:09:19):
And this coincided with exactly

Levon Zourabian (00:09:26):
the time period during which Israel wanted to start the military campaign against Iraq.

Levon Zourabian (00:09:33):
It's not a coincidence.

Levon Zourabian (00:09:36):
They were coordinating their possible military campaigns.

Levon Zourabian (00:09:45):
And we know this based on leakages from the Israeli and Western media.

Levon Zourabian (00:09:52):
From the same Wikileaks,

Levon Zourabian (00:09:53):
we know that the Americans actually decided to postpone the military action from

Levon Zourabian (00:10:01):
April to October.

Levon Zourabian (00:10:05):
Probably you've read those leaked reports saying that Defense Secretary Hegseth was

Levon Zourabian (00:10:15):
actually asking for

Levon Zourabian (00:10:19):
those postponements saying that American troops and commandos need more preparation.

Levon Zourabian (00:10:32):
Actually, you're right.

Levon Zourabian (00:10:34):
When you spoke about all these new facts, there was more feeling of relief when we learned

Levon Zourabian (00:10:46):
from some new press reports that President Trump has discovered that Bibi Netanyahu

Levon Zourabian (00:10:53):
has been plotting behind his back with National Security Advisor Michael Watts and

Levon Zourabian (00:11:00):
other neocons from the administration in order to pull the United States in

Levon Zourabian (00:11:11):
launching a military campaign against Iran.

Levon Zourabian (00:11:19):
I hope Trump is really angry.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:11:22):
Do you believe do you believe Trump really wants to have negotiations or do you

Hovik Manucharyan (00:11:28):
believe that he is also sold on the because you seem to imply that the war has been

Hovik Manucharyan (00:11:33):
postponed until October,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:11:35):
the attack against Iran,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:11:37):
which means that has Trump signed off under that under those plans?

Levon Zourabian (00:11:42):
You know, I don't know.

Levon Zourabian (00:11:43):
Let's just try to think loudly about all these events and see what other

Levon Zourabian (00:11:51):
developments we have and we will come the to conclusion.

Levon Zourabian (00:11:53):
Because since then,

Levon Zourabian (00:11:55):
there were very interesting developments such as,

Levon Zourabian (00:12:00):
for instance,

Levon Zourabian (00:12:02):
U.S.-Hamas negotiations,

Levon Zourabian (00:12:04):
direct negotiations through Steve Witkoff,

Levon Zourabian (00:12:07):
chief Trump negotiator,

Levon Zourabian (00:12:11):
to release the only hostage of American citizenship from Hamas prisons, which was successful.

Levon Zourabian (00:12:21):
They also unilaterally stopped war with Yemeni Houthis, meaning the United States.

Levon Zourabian (00:12:29):
And Israel now continues the war

Levon Zourabian (00:12:33):
on its behalf.

Levon Zourabian (00:12:35):
And as you said, they engaged in very serious negotiations with Iran on the nuclear deal.

Levon Zourabian (00:12:42):
And then we come to this same question.

Levon Zourabian (00:12:45):
Can we feel completely relieved?

Levon Zourabian (00:12:47):
Because these problems matter for us.

Levon Zourabian (00:12:52):
immediately deal with our security, as we already have analyzed.

Levon Zourabian (00:12:59):
Can we believe that the war against Iran has already been prevented?

Levon Zourabian (00:13:06):
Or it was just as you said, or I said, or I hinted

Levon Zourabian (00:13:12):
postponed to October.

Levon Zourabian (00:13:14):
Well, I don't think we can be relieved.

Levon Zourabian (00:13:17):
I don't think we can be now confident that nothing will happen.

Levon Zourabian (00:13:21):
Trump's diplomacy reminds me the negotiation technique of a New York real estate

Levon Zourabian (00:13:34):
mogul,

(00:13:35):
which,

Levon Zourabian (00:13:35):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:13:37):
switches from threats to a more reconciliatory tone now and then,

Levon Zourabian (00:13:42):
and then comes back and,

Levon Zourabian (00:13:44):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:13:45):
the whole thing continues.

Levon Zourabian (00:13:49):
We, by the way, see the same things happening in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

Levon Zourabian (00:13:56):
At some moment he threatens Russia with sanctions or at the other moment he says

Levon Zourabian (00:14:00):
Zelensky is not prepared for real peace.

Levon Zourabian (00:14:05):
So that's a tactic, diplomatic tactics.

Levon Zourabian (00:14:11):
And sometimes it's not too conventional,

Levon Zourabian (00:14:16):
not too traditional,

Levon Zourabian (00:14:17):
but still that's the way he behaves.

Levon Zourabian (00:14:22):
But if we try to understand what the real Trump's position is,

Levon Zourabian (00:14:30):
I want to believe that behind this facade,

Levon Zourabian (00:14:34):
of inconsistencies and repercussions,

Levon Zourabian (00:14:37):
there lies Trump's sincere desire to become a peacemaker and not a warmonger.

Levon Zourabian (00:14:47):
We don't have a completely guaranteed final conclusion,

Levon Zourabian (00:14:52):
but we have some grounds to believe that Trump personally is more devoted

Levon Zourabian (00:15:00):
even against all the pressures by the Israeli lobby,

Levon Zourabian (00:15:06):
which is very powerful in the United States,

Levon Zourabian (00:15:11):
and really has the power to engage,

Levon Zourabian (00:15:14):
to pull the United States into conflict with Iran.

Levon Zourabian (00:15:17):
Still, I hope, and at this time I believe, without

Levon Zourabian (00:15:25):
really iron guarantees, that Trump doesn't want to resort to war.

(00:15:33):
Yeah,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:15:33):
the only question that remains to be asked is whether having some deep-down wishes

Hovik Manucharyan (00:15:40):
is sufficient to not be led into war,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:15:44):
especially if there are some false flag attacks.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:15:46):
But I guess we'll see the answer to that soon.

Levon Zourabian (00:15:51):
Well, let me tell you, I don't rely only on his desires or his...

Levon Zourabian (00:15:58):
wishes or whatever he thinks, how he wants to be remembered in history.

Levon Zourabian (00:16:06):
There are also strategic considerations because many military experts say that such

Levon Zourabian (00:16:15):
a military campaign by the United States can really end disastrously for the United

Levon Zourabian (00:16:25):
States itself.

Levon Zourabian (00:16:27):
Because, you know, the American troops in the Middle East are exposed to possible attacks.

Levon Zourabian (00:16:35):
Iran can attack economic facilities in the region.

Levon Zourabian (00:16:41):
And, you know, this whole thing can produce a very profound economic and security crisis.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:16:48):
That and also the cost of all these wars,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:16:51):
because,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:16:52):
as you know,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:16:53):
just Iraq cost America over a trillion dollars.

Levon Zourabian (00:16:57):
Completely agree with you.

Levon Zourabian (00:16:58):
Right.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:16:59):
So he's very conscious of the cost of everything.

Levon Zourabian (00:17:03):
Absolutely.

(00:17:04):
I agree with you.

Levon Zourabian (00:17:04):
And that's providing some hope to us all.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:09):
So following his visit to the Middle East,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:11):
Trump has renewed efforts,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:14):
as curious as this might be,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:16):
to expand the Abraham Accords.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:19):
A diplomatic initiative that began during the first term of Trump to normalize ties

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:25):
between Israel and the Arab states.

(00:17:28):
And now,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:28):
in his second term,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:29):
Trump's administration is actively exploring new signatories,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:33):
it seems.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:34):
And Armenia has even emerged as a surprising candidate.

(00:17:38):
U.S.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:38):
Special Envoy Steve Witkoff recently suggested that both Armenia and Azerbaijan

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:43):
could be looped into the framework

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:45):
linking their inclusion into a broader peace process between them.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:48):
It seems ridiculous to talk about peace between Arabs and Israelis at the current stage.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:54):
But, you know, I'm not sure.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:17:57):
I was talking with Asbed yesterday and,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:18:00):
you know,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:18:02):
is it fair to consider the Abraham Accords just like dead or pipe dreams?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:18:06):
Or is there maybe something going on behind the scenes that we don't know about?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:18:09):
So I wanted to ask you,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:18:12):
Do you think that as Israel is continuing this genocide of Palestinians,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:18:16):
how serious is any talk about the Abraham Accords right now?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:18:20):
And then we'll go later into this weird inclusion of Armenia in the process itself as well.

Levon Zourabian (00:18:29):
Well, to address this question, let's first turn to the Holy Bible.

Levon Zourabian (00:18:33):
I mean, what Abrahamic word means in this whole episode

Levon Zourabian (00:18:42):
in this whole process.

Levon Zourabian (00:18:44):
We know that sons of Abraham were Isaac and Ishmael,

Levon Zourabian (00:18:52):
or I should say Ishmael and Isaac because Ishmael was the eldest one.

Levon Zourabian (00:18:59):
And it is known that Ishmael is considered as patriarch of Arabs and Isaac is

Levon Zourabian (00:19:08):
considered as the patriarch of Jews.

Levon Zourabian (00:19:14):
So what they are hinting on is this blood connection that Israelis and Arabs have.

Levon Zourabian (00:19:27):
So Abrahamic Accords mean the reconciliation of brothers in a sense.

Levon Zourabian (00:19:35):
But then they were speaking about including Azerbaijan in these Accords,

Levon Zourabian (00:19:43):
which sounds a little bit strange because as far as I know,

Levon Zourabian (00:19:53):
Abraham has no

Levon Zourabian (00:19:56):
science that would give birth to Turks.

Levon Zourabian (00:20:02):
And now Armenia is considered in the same notion.

Levon Zourabian (00:20:10):
So we understand that probably the name of the accord should be changed.

Levon Zourabian (00:20:15):
But anyhow, let's now turn to the substance of those accords and what they can mean for Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (00:20:25):
We know that the Abraham Accords were designed to build a reconciliation between

Levon Zourabian (00:20:31):
Israel and Gulf Arab states on one hand,

Levon Zourabian (00:20:35):
but on the other hand,

Levon Zourabian (00:20:38):
to create a counterbalance to the growing might and power of Iran.

Levon Zourabian (00:20:46):
So in a sense, it was designed as anti-Iran.

Levon Zourabian (00:20:53):
Then we know that the Chinese made a diplomatic coup,

Levon Zourabian (00:20:59):
a diplomatic revolution,

Levon Zourabian (00:21:00):
when they actually negotiated between Saudi Arabia and Iranians.

Levon Zourabian (00:21:08):
And in a moment,

Levon Zourabian (00:21:10):
the whole picture has changed and there was more rapprochement between Saudi Arabia

Levon Zourabian (00:21:18):
and Iran than between,

Levon Zourabian (00:21:20):
for instance,

Levon Zourabian (00:21:21):
the same Saudi Arabia and United Emirates with Israel.

Levon Zourabian (00:21:27):
So instead of Iran

Levon Zourabian (00:21:31):
to get into regional isolation.

Levon Zourabian (00:21:37):
It was Israel who was actually isolated.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:21:41):
Levon,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:21:42):
if I may ask you,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:21:43):
Hovik and I have been discussing over the past day or so,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:21:46):
how much that Chinese brokered agreement made a difference in,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:21:50):
for example,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:21:53):
The Arab Arabian countries,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:21:54):
Saudi Arabia,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:21:55):
the UAE,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:21:56):
Qatar in convincing in convincing Trump that Iran may not be a bad regional player.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:22:05):
It's actually a benign regional player and to stop all the wars against it?

Levon Zourabian (00:22:10):
There should be something to it.

(00:22:12):
I mean,

Levon Zourabian (00:22:12):
of course,

Levon Zourabian (00:22:14):
if the Americans see that the process does not isolate Iran,

Levon Zourabian (00:22:21):
the diplomatic process in the Middle East that does not isolate Iran,

Levon Zourabian (00:22:25):
it should think a little bit otherwise and try to find out other ways.

Levon Zourabian (00:22:33):
Because the whole thing was designed for the isolation of Iran.

Levon Zourabian (00:22:39):
And now it doesn't work.

Levon Zourabian (00:22:41):
And there are unresolved issues between the Arab states and Israel.

Levon Zourabian (00:22:51):
And,

(00:22:52):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:22:52):
in the beginning,

Levon Zourabian (00:22:54):
when there was not this Palestinian Gaza conflict,

(00:22:59):
I mean,

Levon Zourabian (00:22:59):
in the current genocidal stage,

Levon Zourabian (00:23:05):
then,

Levon Zourabian (00:23:07):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:23:08):
there was some...

Levon Zourabian (00:23:10):
some feeling that some Arab countries can turn a blind eye to the Palestinian

(00:23:17):
issue,

Levon Zourabian (00:23:17):
to the recognition of the Palestinian state by the United States and by the United

Levon Zourabian (00:23:23):
Nations,

Levon Zourabian (00:23:24):
and can actually choose an alliance with Israel.

Levon Zourabian (00:23:30):
But now it's impossible.

Levon Zourabian (00:23:32):
No Arab state can now easily forget about the Palestinian cause.

Levon Zourabian (00:23:40):
and forget about the fate of the Palestinian people.

Levon Zourabian (00:23:45):
Because you're right,

Levon Zourabian (00:23:46):
what we are seeing is a genocide completed online,

Levon Zourabian (00:23:52):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:23:55):
before the eyes of the whole humanity.

Levon Zourabian (00:23:58):
And that's why I think the Abrahamic Accords cannot work at this time.

Levon Zourabian (00:24:11):
One positive element in what Witkow is proposing is that if somehow we go by the

Levon Zourabian (00:24:24):
way of the worst scenario,

Levon Zourabian (00:24:27):
meaning that the United States and Israel start the attack against Iran,

Levon Zourabian (00:24:35):
Can we consider this position of the United States on the inclusion of Armenia in

Levon Zourabian (00:24:44):
the Abrahamic Accords as expression of their willingness to defend Armenia against

Levon Zourabian (00:24:54):
the Azeri attack in the case of the war scenario?

Levon Zourabian (00:24:59):
I mean, of course we can express such hopes,

Levon Zourabian (00:25:03):
But I'm not sure that in this big geopolitical development,

Levon Zourabian (00:25:14):
somebody or anybody would be remembering about the Armenians.

Levon Zourabian (00:25:18):
Right, right.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:25:19):
Under the situation, I'm not sure exactly how they would help.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:25:23):
I mean,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:25:24):
Marco Rubio yesterday was saying that the United States is trying to prevent an

Asbed Bedrossian (00:25:29):
invasion by Azerbaijan.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:25:31):
They don't want any kind of violent attacks at this time.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:25:36):
But I am not sure exactly what kind of physical presence they have to prevent this.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:25:42):
And how would it fit into Israel's goals anyway?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:25:45):
Because it seems like for Israel,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:25:48):
Armenia is just like a speck on the road to dominance of the region.

Levon Zourabian (00:25:55):
You know, I don't think that Israel has any problems with Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (00:26:01):
It's not that they hate us or they want to destroy Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (00:26:05):
No, what they want is to help Azerbaijan.

Levon Zourabian (00:26:09):
They want strong Azerbaijan.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:26:13):
As a bulwark against Iran.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:26:14):
Yes.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:26:15):
So let me rephrase my question.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:26:17):
Would the U.S.

(00:26:18):
help and U.S.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:26:18):
and Israeli potential help

Hovik Manucharyan (00:26:24):
and prevention of an attack from Azerbaijan imply that Armenia is also cooperating

Hovik Manucharyan (00:26:28):
with this war against Iran?

Levon Zourabian (00:26:31):
I'm not sure that seems to be the... You know what, that's another very dangerous aspect.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:26:36):
I mean,

Levon Zourabian (00:26:37):
if this is really an entente cordiale or,

Levon Zourabian (00:26:40):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:26:42):
an agreement against Iran,

Levon Zourabian (00:26:45):
then it's very dangerous for Armenia because it is against Iran.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:26:52):
I think that just the mention of Armenia in this Abraham Accords is throwing off,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:26:58):
I believe,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:26:59):
a lot of alerts among Iranians,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:27:02):
and that's exactly why I mentioned it.

Levon Zourabian (00:27:06):
I think we have too many enemies to be able to afford another one,

Levon Zourabian (00:27:12):
especially such a powerful country as Iran.

Levon Zourabian (00:27:18):
No, we should stick to friendship and cooperation with Iran.

Levon Zourabian (00:27:24):
And they are very strong in providing security guarantees to Armenia.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:27:29):
Yeah, absolutely.

Levon Zourabian (00:27:30):
They save with absolute resoluteness.

Levon Zourabian (00:27:33):
They resolve.

Levon Zourabian (00:27:38):
While we don't hear the same, for instance, from the United States.

Levon Zourabian (00:27:46):
Mm-hmm.

Levon Zourabian (00:27:47):
I mean, we need really strong guarantees and we don't have them.

Levon Zourabian (00:27:51):
We don't have them from the United States.

Levon Zourabian (00:27:53):
Those are just wishes.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:27:57):
Right.

(00:27:58):
Right.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:27:58):
I just don't see it myself.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:01):
But let me take us to another festering war, if I may.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:05):
Trump promised before he came to the White House again that he would resolve the

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:11):
war in Ukraine in one day.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:13):
But he hasn't managed to do that.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:15):
The war in Ukraine continues.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:17):
And after talks with Moscow, he's now hinting that it's not his fight to finish.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:23):
And Europe has picked up this mantle,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:26):
backing Ukraine with a hardline stance and introducing military policies.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:32):
Meanwhile, Russia is advancing.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:34):
It has retaken Kursk.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:35):
It's wearing down Ukraine's forces.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:38):
And even though Ukraine is still able to attack Moscow with drones,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:45):
the war outcome may shape the global order and influence Russia's next move in the

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:49):
South Caucasus.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:50):
And this is what's really interesting to us.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:52):
Can you tell us what your view is on how the war in Ukraine is evolving?

Asbed Bedrossian (00:28:56):
Mm-hmm.

Levon Zourabian (00:28:59):
As you mentioned,

Levon Zourabian (00:29:00):
the strategic initiative is on the Russian side,

Levon Zourabian (00:29:05):
which slowly grinds the Ukraine defenses down.

Levon Zourabian (00:29:11):
And slowly is the key word, because in fact, this has become a war of attrition.

Levon Zourabian (00:29:22):
And that's very important to understand.

Levon Zourabian (00:29:28):
Russia's resources against the resources of the West.

Levon Zourabian (00:29:32):
Let's put that way.

Levon Zourabian (00:29:34):
Because the most important development in the military technologies were these

Levon Zourabian (00:29:41):
drone technologies,

Levon Zourabian (00:29:43):
which once again made war a very slow thing.

Levon Zourabian (00:29:56):
In the First World War,

Levon Zourabian (00:29:59):
everybody believed that war is a very fast thing and you should attack,

Levon Zourabian (00:30:04):
but then it turned out that new technologies don't allow for quick war.

Levon Zourabian (00:30:12):
And the whole World War I became a war of attrition and war of resources.

Levon Zourabian (00:30:22):
In the Second World War,

Levon Zourabian (00:30:25):
these blitzkrieg strategies using tanks once again made the war a quick thing with

Levon Zourabian (00:30:34):
very important breakthroughs and seizures of vast territories,

Levon Zourabian (00:30:41):
et cetera,

Levon Zourabian (00:30:42):
et cetera.

Levon Zourabian (00:30:43):
Now the drone technologies brought new reality to the world of wars,

Levon Zourabian (00:30:49):
and the war has become once again a very slow thing,

Levon Zourabian (00:30:56):
which turns contemporary military warfare into a resource struggle.

Levon Zourabian (00:31:10):
So we should understand this is Russia resources against the resources of the West.

Levon Zourabian (00:31:15):
And attrition wars like this,

Levon Zourabian (00:31:19):
they end when one side collapses or both are exhausted to the extent of collapse.

Levon Zourabian (00:31:28):
And both sides have their vulnerabilities.

Levon Zourabian (00:31:31):
Russia has also its own vulnerabilities,

Levon Zourabian (00:31:34):
such as its national autonomies with some accumulated grievances that can explode

Levon Zourabian (00:31:42):
at some moment.

Levon Zourabian (00:31:43):
And probably the strategy of the Western countries and Ukraine is based on that expectation.

Levon Zourabian (00:31:56):
But let me tell you that Ukraine is closer to the verge of collapse because they

Levon Zourabian (00:32:05):
are on the verge of losing the necessary supply of soldiers.

Levon Zourabian (00:32:09):
It lacks manpower and recruiting soldiers has become a very painful and violent

Levon Zourabian (00:32:17):
process that causes a lot of discontent in the Ukrainian society.

Levon Zourabian (00:32:25):
People do not want to go to war anymore.

(00:32:31):
Levon,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:32:31):
so what are the possible outcomes and how does each one affect the way Russia would

Asbed Bedrossian (00:32:36):
re-engage with the South Caucasus?

Levon Zourabian (00:32:39):
Look,

Levon Zourabian (00:32:40):
we already witnessed the first results of this war of attrition because what the

Levon Zourabian (00:32:47):
United States are doing actually signals that they want out of the war.

Levon Zourabian (00:32:54):
Why?

Levon Zourabian (00:32:55):
because they don't want to continue to bear all the difficulties related to at

Levon Zourabian (00:33:05):
least funding or financing that war.

Levon Zourabian (00:33:09):
And so we can understand Trump's administration because what they are saying,

(00:33:18):
in fact,

Levon Zourabian (00:33:18):
is that,

Levon Zourabian (00:33:19):
you know what,

Levon Zourabian (00:33:20):
we have $35 trillion of state debt,

Levon Zourabian (00:33:26):
We have $1 trillion per year to service that debt.

Levon Zourabian (00:33:33):
And we have $1 trillion of military expenditures.

Levon Zourabian (00:33:36):
That's the first signal according to the very outstanding British scientist, Neils Ferguson.

Levon Zourabian (00:33:48):
It's the first signal that the empire is in trouble.

Levon Zourabian (00:33:53):
when servicing your debt exceeds your military expenditure.

Levon Zourabian (00:34:02):
And that's why I actually,

Levon Zourabian (00:34:04):
Trump resorts now to this DOGE project,

Levon Zourabian (00:34:09):
brings Elon Musk into that because they need to somehow cut the government

Levon Zourabian (00:34:16):
expenditures

(00:34:17):
Or,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:34:17):
of course,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:34:18):
if you think like the Trump administration,

Asbed Bedrossian (00:34:20):
you increase your defense budget so that your debt servicing is not more than your

Asbed Bedrossian (00:34:25):
defense budget.

Levon Zourabian (00:34:26):
Well, I think that's temporary increase because they understand that they cannot.

Levon Zourabian (00:34:31):
It's not sustainable.

(00:34:33):
Right.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:34:33):
I hope.

Levon Zourabian (00:34:34):
And that is why the United States understand that they cannot continue this operation.

Levon Zourabian (00:34:43):
attrition war, to bear this attrition war on their shoulders.

Levon Zourabian (00:34:49):
And they want to be out.

Levon Zourabian (00:34:51):
So that's one of the most important outcomes of this attrition war.

Levon Zourabian (00:34:57):
And then this whole conversation starts what Europe would do.

Levon Zourabian (00:35:04):
Is Europe ready to unilaterally bear

Levon Zourabian (00:35:12):
those difficulties?

Levon Zourabian (00:35:13):
Is Europe ready to finance, to fund the Ukrainian war, to send weaponry to Ukraine?

Levon Zourabian (00:35:22):
Well, here also we see problems.

Levon Zourabian (00:35:25):
I mean, look at the economic situation in Germany, in the United Kingdom, why not in France?

Levon Zourabian (00:35:33):
They are all very close to economic crisis.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:35:39):
But I think that one of the ways that they figured out or they're trying to address

Hovik Manucharyan (00:35:43):
that is essentially military Keynesian policies where the defense industry is going

Hovik Manucharyan (00:35:48):
to,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:35:49):
or military industrial complex is going to help bring,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:35:52):
you know,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:35:53):
economic,

(00:35:55):
you know,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:35:55):
benefits as well.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:35:57):
Do you think that will work for Europe?

Levon Zourabian (00:35:59):
You know, the problem is that while Russia can really, uh,

Levon Zourabian (00:36:05):
rearrange its economy and to put it on the,

Levon Zourabian (00:36:08):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:36:09):
military foot,

Levon Zourabian (00:36:13):
the West can't do that,

Levon Zourabian (00:36:15):
the same,

Levon Zourabian (00:36:16):
because it's,

Levon Zourabian (00:36:17):
the Western societies are democratic societies,

Levon Zourabian (00:36:20):
and the democratic societies can really mobilize a lot of military potential when

Levon Zourabian (00:36:27):
there is a strong threat to their existence.

Levon Zourabian (00:36:31):
For instance, the United States in the Second World War, they mobilize the

Levon Zourabian (00:36:35):
the whole economy, against Japan.

Levon Zourabian (00:36:39):
They built so many ships, military ships, that Japan couldn't compete with them.

Levon Zourabian (00:36:47):
But for that, you need to go to some extremes.

Levon Zourabian (00:36:51):
You have to completely rearrange your economy,

Levon Zourabian (00:36:55):
and the economy should start to work on completely different principles,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:01):
which is something that the West can't do.

Levon Zourabian (00:37:05):
They cannot,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:06):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:07):
put in industrial powerhouses,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:13):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:14):
on production of tanks,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:16):
artillery,

(00:37:18):
missiles,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:18):
et cetera,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:19):
et cetera,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:20):
unless the United States declare some war situation for the country and,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:26):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:27):
completely change the economic structure of the country.

Levon Zourabian (00:37:36):
It works in wartimes,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:38):
but you cannot,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:40):
in the democratic societies like the United States and Europe,

Levon Zourabian (00:37:45):
you cannot do semi-war.

Levon Zourabian (00:37:49):
Either you are in war or you are in peace.

Levon Zourabian (00:37:53):
So in this sense, I don't believe that Europe

Levon Zourabian (00:38:06):
will be able to actually replace the United States as the funder,

Levon Zourabian (00:38:13):
chief funder and supporter of the Ukrainian war.

Levon Zourabian (00:38:19):
And that means that Ukraine is closer to collapse than Russia.

Levon Zourabian (00:38:28):
Once again,

Levon Zourabian (00:38:30):
Nobody can give 100% guarantees for that forecast.

Levon Zourabian (00:38:36):
But one thing that we can state with complete certainty is that Ukraine looks

Levon Zourabian (00:38:43):
closer to collapse than Russia today.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:38:46):
Yeah,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:38:47):
and we've had numerous people talk about the fact that Russia would be more engaged

Hovik Manucharyan (00:38:53):
in the region after such a collapse.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:38:56):
But let me actually spin this into our region.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:38:59):
In March, Armenia and Azerbaijan announced that they had finalized a 17-point peace agreement.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:07):
Weirdly,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:08):
right after that,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:09):
Azerbaijan started shooting at Armenia's border positions even more frequently.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:14):
It's almost a daily occurrence.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:16):
In addition, Azerbaijan accused Armenia for it.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:19):
And then also Azerbaijan doubled down on its existing preconditions.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:24):
to the signing of any treaty and even introduce new preconditions like we're

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:28):
hearing,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:29):
you know,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:30):
a few days ago.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:31):
In Tirana,

(00:39:32):
for instance,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:32):
last week,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:33):
Pashinyan was meeting with Aliyev,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:36):
he met with Erdogan,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:38):
and he met with EU leaders.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:40):
While European officials urged swift signing of the peace treaty,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:45):
Aliyev reiterated his conditions or preconditions,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:48):
such as the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:52):
demand for Armenia to amend its constitution,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:56):
you know,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:39:57):
preclusion of any outside forces on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:05):
the establishment of an extraterritorial corridor through Armenia.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:09):
Many other demands have been heard, and Aliyev was so confident that

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:13):
He said Pashinyan will meet all of his demands.

(00:40:15):
The only question,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:15):
I guess,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:16):
is which of those demands is a precondition to signing any peace treaty,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:20):
if that is even possible,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:22):
and which of those is something that will happen anyway without a peace treaty?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:27):
So to us,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:28):
these developments suggest that the peace talks have become a series of essentially

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:32):
unilateral demands from Baku.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:34):
And Pashinyan's job seems to be to socialize these demands within Armenia just

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:38):
enough so that he doesn't lose power completely,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:41):
but then is able to quietly execute the orders coming from Aliyev.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:47):
What are your views on these talks?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:49):
And what did Pashinyan achieve by going to Tirana?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:53):
And in general, what's going on?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:40:58):
in these talks?

Levon Zourabian (00:40:59):
Well,

Levon Zourabian (00:41:00):
the most important question that we are entitled to ask Nikol Pashinyan is what is

Levon Zourabian (00:41:11):
the main outcome of you satisfying those incessant demands by Azerbaijan?

Levon Zourabian (00:41:23):
After satisfying all these demands, you have

Levon Zourabian (00:41:27):
being closer to peace by one centimeter.

Levon Zourabian (00:41:31):
And we see that, no, that's not the case.

Levon Zourabian (00:41:34):
I mean,

Levon Zourabian (00:41:35):
you remember,

Levon Zourabian (00:41:38):
Pashinyan would come and say to the Armenian society that we need to,

Levon Zourabian (00:41:43):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:41:44):
give Azerbaijan three villages

(00:41:48):
Otherwise,

Levon Zourabian (00:41:48):
the war will start and we need to start this whole procedure of delimitation and

Levon Zourabian (00:41:56):
demarcation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Levon Zourabian (00:42:02):
And the only outcome of this is not the process of delimitation and demarcation as

Levon Zourabian (00:42:08):
he would propose to us,

Levon Zourabian (00:42:10):
but only the

Levon Zourabian (00:42:13):
the turning of these three villages or four villages to Azerbaijan.

Levon Zourabian (00:42:17):
That was the only outcome.

Levon Zourabian (00:42:19):
You would suppose that,

Levon Zourabian (00:42:21):
okay,

Levon Zourabian (00:42:22):
after this concession,

Levon Zourabian (00:42:26):
Pashinyan should at least show us that Azerbaijan has become less aggressive and

Levon Zourabian (00:42:31):
more reconciliatory.

Levon Zourabian (00:42:33):
That doesn't happen.

Levon Zourabian (00:42:36):
Azerbaijan increases its demands.

Levon Zourabian (00:42:40):
Every concession, and those concessions are only unilateral, from Armenia to Azerbaijan.

Levon Zourabian (00:42:46):
Every concession only raises the appetites of the aggressor, makes him more aggressive.

Levon Zourabian (00:42:54):
I mean...

Levon Zourabian (00:42:55):
This is something unprecedented in the history of diplomacy and negotiations,

Levon Zourabian (00:43:01):
when one side,

Levon Zourabian (00:43:03):
one party agrees to all the terms proposed by the,

(00:43:09):
okay,

Levon Zourabian (00:43:09):
victor for the text of peace agreement,

Levon Zourabian (00:43:15):
but when

Levon Zourabian (00:43:16):
that party agrees to every wish of this party,

Levon Zourabian (00:43:24):
of the victor party,

Levon Zourabian (00:43:26):
that party still rejects signing the peace agreement.

Levon Zourabian (00:43:31):
This is unbelievable.

Levon Zourabian (00:43:33):
Never seen in the history of diplomacy.

Levon Zourabian (00:43:39):
Even capitulations have their logic

Levon Zourabian (00:43:46):
I mean, you fulfill all the demands of the victorious side and then the peace is being signed.

Levon Zourabian (00:43:56):
That doesn't happen.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:43:58):
This is why actually Hovik and I stopped calling these communications between

Asbed Bedrossian (00:44:03):
Aliyev and Pashinyan negotiations because it's not negotiations.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:44:08):
Okay, admittedly, they're talking.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:44:10):
So we decided to call them talks instead of negotiations because one side is not negotiating.

Levon Zourabian (00:44:15):
Yes, these are talks on concessions, which do not stop.

Levon Zourabian (00:44:21):
They do not stop.

Levon Zourabian (00:44:23):
And every concession makes Azerbaijan

Levon Zourabian (00:44:27):
more aggressive, and you are right.

Levon Zourabian (00:44:30):
I mean,

Levon Zourabian (00:44:31):
you would expect that when you declare to the whole world that Armenia and

Levon Zourabian (00:44:37):
Azerbaijan reached an agreement on the text of the peace agreement,

Levon Zourabian (00:44:43):
And the whole world actually celebrates that event and congratulates the parties to

Levon Zourabian (00:44:49):
the conflict with coming to the conclusion of these negotiations.

Levon Zourabian (00:44:57):
And then nothing happens and the Azeris side starts to shoot on the border.

Levon Zourabian (00:45:06):
What that means?

Levon Zourabian (00:45:08):
Well, that means a very simple thing.

Levon Zourabian (00:45:11):
Azerbaijan does not want peace agreement with Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (00:45:18):
It is busy with manipulating Nikol Pashinyan,

Levon Zourabian (00:45:24):
Nikol Pashinyan's vulnerable position, for exerting more and more concessions

Levon Zourabian (00:45:31):
through peaceful ways.

Levon Zourabian (00:45:32):
I mean, why would Azerbaijan think about sparing one life of a soldier or a bullet?

Levon Zourabian (00:45:43):
if it can reach the same outcome through peaceful negotiations with Nikol

(00:45:49):
Pashinyan,

Levon Zourabian (00:45:49):
who actually does it only because he needs to show to the Armenian people that he

Levon Zourabian (00:45:58):
can deliver the peace to Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (00:46:02):
And that's becoming very dangerous situation because we were still one year away

Levon Zourabian (00:46:09):
from the upcoming elections.

Levon Zourabian (00:46:13):
And this whole period can be used by Aliyev for seizing more and more territories

Levon Zourabian (00:46:24):
or concessions from Armenian present government because this government is

Levon Zourabian (00:46:30):
interested in keeping its power by creating the illusion that it

Levon Zourabian (00:46:39):
leads the Armenian people to peace.

Levon Zourabian (00:46:42):
That's abominable, that's intolerable.

Levon Zourabian (00:46:46):
And you know what,

Levon Zourabian (00:46:50):
we have to explain to our people,

Levon Zourabian (00:46:53):
to our society,

Levon Zourabian (00:46:54):
that you cannot ask for peace.

Levon Zourabian (00:46:58):
The peace cannot be, you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:47:03):
brought to the table by asking, by, you know, going and saying, huh?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:47:12):
And begging for it.

Levon Zourabian (00:47:14):
By begging to Erdogan and to Aliyev.

Levon Zourabian (00:47:17):
Those are humiliating scenes that we are witnessing every moment.

Levon Zourabian (00:47:21):
The whole body language of Nikol Pachinyan show that he considers now Erdogan as

Levon Zourabian (00:47:28):
his big father and Aliyev his big brother.

Levon Zourabian (00:47:34):
He's respectful only to those two leaders.

Levon Zourabian (00:47:38):
Others do not exist for him anymore.

Levon Zourabian (00:47:42):
He's begging the peace, but peace has never been begged.

Levon Zourabian (00:47:46):
The only way to bring Aliyev to peace is to show that Armenia has potential for resistance.

Levon Zourabian (00:47:54):
Only in that case, Aliyev

Levon Zourabian (00:47:57):
we'll start to think about signing a peace agreement with Armenia.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:48:02):
So we'll come back to the 2026 elections later, but Lavrov was in Yerevan earlier this week.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:48:09):
The initial stated goals of the Russian visit were to facilitate Armenia and

(00:48:15):
Azerbaijan,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:48:15):
as well as Armenia and Turkish normalization.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:48:20):
What are your thoughts on the visit?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:48:22):
Was it successful?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:48:23):
And what role is Russia seeking in those negotiations?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:48:29):
In a sense,

Levon Zourabian (00:48:31):
this visit is also related to one of the main failures of Nikol Pashinyan's

Levon Zourabian (00:48:36):
policies.

Levon Zourabian (00:48:39):
What I mean...

Levon Zourabian (00:48:43):
You all remember that Nikol Pashinyan's teams and his whole state propaganda

Levon Zourabian (00:48:49):
started to say that,

(00:48:51):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:48:51):
all our problems come because Russia has this imperial design on Armenia because

Levon Zourabian (00:48:57):
they collude with Azerbaijanis to seize Armenian lands.

Levon Zourabian (00:49:01):
They want to, you know, put Armenia...

Levon Zourabian (00:49:05):
in submission and actually even to seize Armenia as part of Russian state,

Levon Zourabian (00:49:16):
all these kinds of things.

Levon Zourabian (00:49:18):
So that,

Levon Zourabian (00:49:19):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:49:20):
we need to do everything in our best to sever the ties with Russia,

Levon Zourabian (00:49:28):
to reorient our economy to the West and,

Levon Zourabian (00:49:33):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:49:35):
find the ways to, as they put, independent autonomous existence with severed ties with Russia.

Levon Zourabian (00:49:47):
Well, I mean, they were trying.

Levon Zourabian (00:49:51):
And by the way, that's another mission that Nikol Pashinyan wants to sell to his own people.

Levon Zourabian (00:50:00):
One mission

Levon Zourabian (00:50:01):
we spoke about was this mission of peacemaker,

Levon Zourabian (00:50:07):
that he gives that illusion that he is actually bringing peace to Armenia,

Levon Zourabian (00:50:11):
as we already spoke about this.

Levon Zourabian (00:50:14):
Another mission that he wants to sell to Armenia is that he's trying to explain all

Levon Zourabian (00:50:21):
the failures of his government by,

Levon Zourabian (00:50:24):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:50:26):
Russian intrigues,

Levon Zourabian (00:50:28):
by the Russian intrigues.

Levon Zourabian (00:50:29):
by the desire of Russians to actually annihilate independent Armenian state.

Levon Zourabian (00:50:39):
And of course, he knows what he's doing because

(00:50:45):
You know,

Levon Zourabian (00:50:45):
after this Karabakh war,

Levon Zourabian (00:50:48):
there was very fertile ground for anti-Russian moods within our society because

Levon Zourabian (00:51:00):
people had exaggerated expectations from Russia on their possible help to save

Levon Zourabian (00:51:13):
Nagorno-Karabakh.

Levon Zourabian (00:51:15):
autonomous from Azerbaijan.

Levon Zourabian (00:51:17):
That didn't happen.

Levon Zourabian (00:51:20):
The Russians,

Levon Zourabian (00:51:22):
of course,

Levon Zourabian (00:51:24):
are somehow guilty for that also because they were not bold enough towards

Levon Zourabian (00:51:31):
Azerbaijan,

Levon Zourabian (00:51:33):
which can be explained also by the fact that they had their hands

Levon Zourabian (00:51:43):
busy in Ukraine and they actually devoted their whole military resources,

Levon Zourabian (00:51:51):
organizational resources to the Ukraine war.

Levon Zourabian (00:51:54):
And they were afraid at some moment to have another confrontation,

Levon Zourabian (00:52:00):
another front with Azerbaijan and possibly Turkey.

Levon Zourabian (00:52:06):
But on the other hand, you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:52:11):
I understand that there is this fertile ground for anti-Russian mood in our society.

Levon Zourabian (00:52:19):
But what Pashinyan did, he started to exploit that mood for his own electoral purposes.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:52:29):
I was going to ask if he exploited it or he cultivated it.

Levon Zourabian (00:52:34):
He did both.

Levon Zourabian (00:52:37):
He exploited it, he cultivated it, and once again he exploited it.

Levon Zourabian (00:52:44):
And he tries to sell,

Levon Zourabian (00:52:49):
besides this mission of peacemaker,

Levon Zourabian (00:52:52):
he tries to sell to his own people this mission of,

Levon Zourabian (00:52:56):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (00:52:58):
liberating of Armenia from Russian imperialism and bringing Armenia to the West.

Levon Zourabian (00:53:05):
And that's why this whole process of joining European Union has been initiated.

Levon Zourabian (00:53:15):
But once again, we see that this is merely a PR show because

Levon Zourabian (00:53:26):
They took a decision,

Levon Zourabian (00:53:27):
the parliament actually adopted a law on accession of Armenia to the European

Levon Zourabian (00:53:34):
Union.

Levon Zourabian (00:53:35):
You will think that some steps should follow after such a decision.

Levon Zourabian (00:53:43):
You have to begin negotiations,

Levon Zourabian (00:53:46):
talks with the European Union,

Levon Zourabian (00:53:48):
you have to negotiate the conditions,

(00:53:51):
et cetera,

Levon Zourabian (00:53:51):
et cetera,

Levon Zourabian (00:53:53):
but nothing happens.

Levon Zourabian (00:53:55):
And then Lavrov comes to Yerevan,

Levon Zourabian (00:53:57):
and in a very proud way,

Levon Zourabian (00:54:01):
the Armenian authorities declare that,

Levon Zourabian (00:54:03):
well,

Levon Zourabian (00:54:04):
they adopted that law,

Levon Zourabian (00:54:07):
but they didn't mean it.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:54:09):
And no steps have been taken.

Levon Zourabian (00:54:11):
No steps have been taken.

Asbed Bedrossian (00:54:12):
To join the EU, yeah.

Levon Zourabian (00:54:13):
No steps.

Levon Zourabian (00:54:16):
How idiotic can you get, I mean,

Levon Zourabian (00:54:20):
How can, what this policy means?

Levon Zourabian (00:54:24):
I mean, do you want to go to European Union or you don't?

Asbed Bedrossian (00:54:27):
Davon, what was the key reason why Lavrov visited Yerevan?

Asbed Bedrossian (00:54:34):
What role is Russia seeking in the region and in Armenia?

Levon Zourabian (00:54:39):
I think Russia understands that Nikol Pashinyan now is in completely failed

Levon Zourabian (00:54:49):
state and that his policy is in stalemate and they want to seize this moment of

Levon Zourabian (00:54:57):
sobering when the Armenian authorities understood finally that no support is coming

Levon Zourabian (00:55:09):
from the West to save Armenia from possible Azeri aggression.

Levon Zourabian (00:55:16):
And Russia responds to this sobering by the Armenian government.

Levon Zourabian (00:55:22):
So they came here to get assurances that Armenia,

Levon Zourabian (00:55:29):
while adopting this law on the accession to the European Union,

Levon Zourabian (00:55:37):
doesn't mean it.

Levon Zourabian (00:55:38):
So that Armenia keeps all...

Levon Zourabian (00:55:44):
participation in all the institutions,

Levon Zourabian (00:55:48):
especially in the institutions of collective security with Russia.

Levon Zourabian (00:55:55):
Lavrov came to get those assurances and he got it.

Levon Zourabian (00:55:58):
That's what's happening.

Levon Zourabian (00:56:00):
By the way, what I want to stress, but damage has been done.

Levon Zourabian (00:56:06):
I mean, this whole maneuver that Nikol Pashinyan did

Levon Zourabian (00:56:13):
trying to switch from its geopolitical,

Levon Zourabian (00:56:17):
Armenia's geopolitical orientation from Russia to the West and then back.

Levon Zourabian (00:56:23):
That's actually... Huge damage in trust, certainly.

Levon Zourabian (00:56:30):
Not only in trust.

Levon Zourabian (00:56:31):
I mean, we lost Karabakh on this movement.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:56:34):
We lost territories.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:56:38):
In fact, I was gonna ask, in what way is Russia planning to come back to the Caucasus?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:56:45):
Because even before the war, even when we knew that Russia

Hovik Manucharyan (00:56:51):
could not be an ally to Armenia like Turkey is to Azerbaijan,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:56:55):
Armenia before 2020 did have some gravitas to it.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:01):
And now it seems like we are much more vulnerable geopolitically,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:07):
even if Russia is making a comeback.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:10):
And here I want to ask, okay, Russia is trying to sort of maybe salvage the situation, but...

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:19):
is Armenia vulnerable for satisfying Russian demands too?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:22):
And one of those demands,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:23):
or one of those desires,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:24):
let's just put it this way,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:26):
is to be the traffic cop,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:30):
essentially,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:31):
on the extraterritorial corridor

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:34):
extraterritorial corridor that Turkey and Azerbaijan want through Armenia,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:40):
the so-called Zangezur Corridor.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:42):
Meanwhile, Iran has categorically rejected this and has spoken about it as a red flag for it.

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:49):
So is Russia open to,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:51):
let's say,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:53):
negotiating away more of Armenia's sovereignty on Armenia's behind,

Hovik Manucharyan (00:57:57):
simply because we don't have the geopolitical strength now to resist that?

Hovik Manucharyan (00:58:02):
And maybe that is the...

Hovik Manucharyan (00:58:07):
least worst option for us or should we pay more credence to Iran's threats about

Hovik Manucharyan (00:58:15):
the inviolability of Armenia's own borders and how can Iran… So what is the

Hovik Manucharyan (00:58:21):
difference between Iranian and Russian policies and do you think that Russia really

Hovik Manucharyan (00:58:26):
wants this corridor or is it simply like if it's going to be there then I will I

Hovik Manucharyan (00:58:33):
want to control it?

Levon Zourabian (00:58:34):
Well,

Levon Zourabian (00:58:35):
let me start from the assumption that Russia has not completely freed its hands

Levon Zourabian (00:58:43):
from Ukraine.

Levon Zourabian (00:58:46):
While this is the strategic direction,

Levon Zourabian (00:58:49):
given the fact that Trump's administration has taken a new course in diplomacy,

Levon Zourabian (00:58:56):
and it seems like there is some movement to the formalization

Levon Zourabian (00:59:04):
of possible Russian victory in the Ukrainian conflict.

Levon Zourabian (00:59:10):
But things are not there yet.

Levon Zourabian (00:59:13):
Meaning that Russia is not completely out of troubles related to Ukraine.

Levon Zourabian (00:59:23):
On the other hand, it is much more self-assured given the facts that we just discussed.

Levon Zourabian (00:59:32):
And what's even more important

Levon Zourabian (00:59:35):
Those facts are now obvious also for the Armenian leadership.

Levon Zourabian (00:59:43):
I don't buy those assumptions that what Russia wants is to make Armenia part of

Levon Zourabian (00:59:56):
Russia or somehow destroy the sovereignty of Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (01:00:04):
I don't buy it.

Levon Zourabian (01:00:05):
In fact,

Levon Zourabian (01:00:09):
Russia understands completely that with weak Armenia or with Armenia,

Levon Zourabian (01:00:18):
which does not exist as strong,

Levon Zourabian (01:00:21):
powerful factor in the Caucasus,

Levon Zourabian (01:00:24):
they have weaker positions in the Caucasus.

Levon Zourabian (01:00:28):
If Armenia is destroyed, if Azerbaijan...

Levon Zourabian (01:00:34):
gets by force its coveted corridor through Zangezur,

Levon Zourabian (01:00:45):
then those would be very bad times for Russia because it would lose its power or

Levon Zourabian (01:00:55):
influence in the Caucasus and that's probably

Levon Zourabian (01:01:02):
would be a very undesired development for Russia.

Levon Zourabian (01:01:09):
So probably there are some red lines for Russia.

Levon Zourabian (01:01:13):
They could make some concessions towards Azerbaijan and Turkey so that they make

Levon Zourabian (01:01:23):
their Caucasus frontline possible frontline safer.

Levon Zourabian (01:01:29):
But there are some red lines.

Levon Zourabian (01:01:32):
They cannot afford retreating from the Caucasus.

Levon Zourabian (01:01:39):
Let me quickly finish to answer the question that Hovik was actually asking,

Levon Zourabian (01:01:45):
because one of the demands of Azerbaijan that you were speaking is that Zangezur

Levon Zourabian (01:01:51):
corridor.

Levon Zourabian (01:01:54):
And Hovik was asking whether Russia wants actually to

Levon Zourabian (01:01:58):
compel Armenia to provide this corridor to Azerbaijan and Turkey or not.

Levon Zourabian (01:02:04):
The quick answer to that would be that,

Levon Zourabian (01:02:07):
of course,

Levon Zourabian (01:02:08):
something has changed from November 9,

(01:02:10):
2020,

Levon Zourabian (01:02:10):
because that peace plan was a Russian peace plan of mutual provision of

Levon Zourabian (01:02:18):
transportation connections between Armenia and Azerbaijan under the Russian

Levon Zourabian (01:02:24):
auspices.

Levon Zourabian (01:02:27):
That plan was aborted because of Pashinyan's policies,

Levon Zourabian (01:02:33):
because he didn't want to actually fulfill his part of the agreement and give the

Levon Zourabian (01:02:41):
connection,

Levon Zourabian (01:02:42):
transportation connection between Nakhijevan and Azerbaijan in the way that it was

Levon Zourabian (01:02:47):
supposed in the 9th November 2020 agreement.

Levon Zourabian (01:02:52):
And now,

Levon Zourabian (01:02:59):
If Russia insists on the provision of the corridor,

Levon Zourabian (01:03:04):
that would be a very unilateral concession for Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (01:03:07):
I think we have to renegotiate the agreement.

Levon Zourabian (01:03:13):
And I think Russia can adhere to our reasonable objections to the unilateral

Levon Zourabian (01:03:25):
implementation of the trilateral agreement.

Levon Zourabian (01:03:29):
There is potential there.

Levon Zourabian (01:03:30):
I believe we can negotiate with Russia on this.

Levon Zourabian (01:03:37):
On the issue of the constitution,

Levon Zourabian (01:03:39):
we all understand that that demand has nothing to do with real desire of Aliyev for

Levon Zourabian (01:03:50):
greater safety for Azerbaijan.

Levon Zourabian (01:03:53):
Because it is absolutely obvious that from the judicial point of view,

Levon Zourabian (01:04:04):
there is no territorial claims engraved in our constitution,

Levon Zourabian (01:04:10):
nothing,

Levon Zourabian (01:04:11):
zero,

Levon Zourabian (01:04:12):
especially given the very concrete decision of the constitutional court of Armenia,

(01:04:22):
saying,

Levon Zourabian (01:04:22):
interpreting the very clause that Aliyev refers to as lacking any territorial

Levon Zourabian (01:04:32):
claims towards Azerbaijan.

Levon Zourabian (01:04:35):
The constitutional court has explicitly said,

Levon Zourabian (01:04:39):
decided that that clause has no territorial claims to Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (01:04:50):
So after all these,

Levon Zourabian (01:04:53):
when Aliyev once again comes up with those demands,

Levon Zourabian (01:05:00):
we understand that he does it because he needs a pretext not to sign the peace

Levon Zourabian (01:05:07):
agreement with Armenia and to continue this policy of getting new and new

Levon Zourabian (01:05:15):
concessions from Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (01:05:18):
And also,

Levon Zourabian (01:05:19):
The most important thing is that Azerbaijan wants to keep open for Azerbaijan the

Levon Zourabian (01:05:31):
possibility of engaging in war with Armenia in case of the chaos that can ensue

Levon Zourabian (01:05:40):
when the United States and Israel start the attack against Iraq.

Levon Zourabian (01:05:46):
He doesn't want to close that window of opportunity.

Levon Zourabian (01:05:51):
He wants to keep it open.

Levon Zourabian (01:05:52):
He wants to keep his military options open on the table.

Levon Zourabian (01:05:58):
So the constitutional change demand is a pretext.

Levon Zourabian (01:06:05):
He's just playing with Armenia, playing with Nikol Pashinyan, playing with our dignity.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:06:12):
Yeah, like you said, the manipulation factor is the more important issue here.

Levon Zourabian (01:06:16):
Yes, he's manipulating the vulnerability of Nikol Pashinyan in his own society.

(01:06:23):
You know,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:23):
given that we're coming to 2016,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:26):
2026 elections,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:27):
and I mean,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:28):
maybe this is just,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:30):
you know,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:32):
Aliyev playing with Pashinyan, but Pashinyan is taking that threat very seriously.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:39):
He has moved up the date for the constitutional changes from 2027 to 2026,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:45):
and many internal experts believe that he will time the elections in such a way

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:53):
that they will coincide with the referendum,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:55):
even though that's

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:56):
precluded by law right now.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:06:59):
But they have the majority to change the law anyway.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:07:01):
So do you see that as a possibility?

Hovik Manucharyan (01:07:05):
And essentially, you know, I just don't see how that will end.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:07:11):
But do you think it's possible for Pashinyan to try to change the constitution as Aliyev wants?

Levon Zourabian (01:07:17):
Any attempt to make this constitutional change is doomed to failure.

Levon Zourabian (01:07:24):
The Armenian nation would not accept that.

Levon Zourabian (01:07:28):
The Armenian nation would not accept anything dictated from above, especially from Azerbaijan.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:07:36):
Even if he sugarcoats it in terms of an EU referendum or some maybe even...

Hovik Manucharyan (01:07:42):
I don't know what will happen.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:07:44):
I can't predict it.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:07:45):
But yes, I do agree that it's going to be difficult to convince the public to go and vote.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:07:52):
uh for a constitution that is so humiliating to oneself but maybe uh one way they

Hovik Manucharyan (01:07:58):
can ensure quorum on that day is to stack the elections with so many like

Hovik Manucharyan (01:08:03):
sugar-coated uh options for the public like you know more uh more loans or

Hovik Manucharyan (01:08:09):
forgiveness of loans and things like that such that they can steamroll steamroll

Hovik Manucharyan (01:08:15):
the the constitutional changes anyway

Hovik Manucharyan (01:08:17):
But let me ask you one question.

Levon Zourabian (01:08:19):
Who said that the constitutional change requested by Aliyev,

Levon Zourabian (01:08:25):
if implemented,

Levon Zourabian (01:08:26):
would satisfy his appetite?

Asbed Bedrossian (01:08:28):
Nothing.

Levon Zourabian (01:08:31):
You don't know.

Levon Zourabian (01:08:32):
I mean, probably it's better to say you know that it will not satisfy.

Levon Zourabian (01:08:36):
He would come up with new demands.

Levon Zourabian (01:08:39):
The one that we see,

Levon Zourabian (01:08:41):
he started to repeat this every day,

(01:08:44):
that,

Levon Zourabian (01:08:44):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (01:08:45):
he demands that Armenian government creates good

Levon Zourabian (01:08:49):
good conditions,

Levon Zourabian (01:08:51):
safe conditions for the return of all so-called Azerbaijanis from the Western

Levon Zourabian (01:08:58):
Azerbaijan.

Levon Zourabian (01:08:59):
He calls Azeris from Armenia that way.

Levon Zourabian (01:09:02):
He wants the return of Azeri population to Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (01:09:06):
And that's another demand.

Levon Zourabian (01:09:08):
Can you tell me where these demands can end?

Levon Zourabian (01:09:15):
Then he would demand, you know, that Azerbaijan becomes another state language of Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (01:09:21):
Then he would, you know, demand that, you know...

Levon Zourabian (01:09:29):
Azerbaijani Islamic institutions were given,

(01:09:34):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (01:09:34):
all the possibilities to function in Armenia,

(01:09:39):
etc.

Levon Zourabian (01:09:39):
This is an unstoppable flow of demands.

Levon Zourabian (01:09:47):
So, no, I don't believe that that's a way for Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (01:09:56):
In relation with the upcoming elections, I will tell you one thing.

Levon Zourabian (01:10:03):
In Armenia,

Levon Zourabian (01:10:04):
we have now two political forces that have already positioned themselves as major

Levon Zourabian (01:10:12):
players in the upcoming elections.

Levon Zourabian (01:10:14):
One is Nikol Pashinyan with his agenda of bringing peace, fighting Russian imperialism,

Levon Zourabian (01:10:22):
And, you know, confiscating illegal properties from plunderers of Armenia.

(01:10:29):
That's one.

Levon Zourabian (01:10:29):
Another force,

Levon Zourabian (01:10:31):
it's a force of the second president of Armenia,

Levon Zourabian (01:10:34):
Robert Kocharyan,

Levon Zourabian (01:10:35):
which says that we have to put all our stakes on Russia.

Levon Zourabian (01:10:42):
That...

Levon Zourabian (01:10:45):
We have to,

Levon Zourabian (01:10:47):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (01:10:48):
somehow state that we don't close the Nagorno-Karabakh page,

(01:10:57):
which,

Levon Zourabian (01:10:57):
if you translate from this language to ordinary language,

Levon Zourabian (01:11:03):
means that,

(01:11:04):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (01:11:04):
you can expect some,

Levon Zourabian (01:11:06):
how to say...

Levon Zourabian (01:11:11):
problems and probably even a resumption of war with Azerbaijan.

Levon Zourabian (01:11:16):
Now,

(01:11:17):
is that,

Levon Zourabian (01:11:17):
I mean,

Levon Zourabian (01:11:18):
the whole political system of Armenia has become a hostage to these two poles,

Levon Zourabian (01:11:25):
but the people want something different.

Levon Zourabian (01:11:28):
People want those who can bring peace, yes, but real peace,

Levon Zourabian (01:11:38):
not an illusionary one that Pashinyan wants to sell to his old people,

Levon Zourabian (01:11:44):
and who were not engaged in corruption as Robert Kocharyan was.

Levon Zourabian (01:11:49):
So people want some new consolidation,

Levon Zourabian (01:11:52):
a consolidated political force that they will be ready to vote for.

Levon Zourabian (01:11:58):
And the most important thing, I would define the following way.

Levon Zourabian (01:12:03):
You know, in 1988,

Levon Zourabian (01:12:07):
There was this pan-Armenian movement that took the whole our nation in the struggle

Levon Zourabian (01:12:17):
for Karabakh,

(01:12:18):
for independence,

Levon Zourabian (01:12:18):
et cetera,

Levon Zourabian (01:12:19):
et cetera.

Levon Zourabian (01:12:21):
The most important essence of that movement was that it was completely Armenian agenda.

Levon Zourabian (01:12:32):
So it was spontaneously formulated agenda of the Armenian people.

Levon Zourabian (01:12:39):
Something that comes from the soul of Armenians,

Levon Zourabian (01:12:42):
from their intellect and didn't bear any influence of any external powers.

Levon Zourabian (01:12:53):
Unfortunately, what we now have in Armenia is a very fragmented society.

Levon Zourabian (01:13:00):
Demoralized society.

Levon Zourabian (01:13:02):
And different fragments of this society are being manipulated by external powers,

Levon Zourabian (01:13:13):
Every power is now trying to put its soft influence in Armenia,

Levon Zourabian (01:13:20):
trying to bring spies so that they can influence whatever the Armenian government

Levon Zourabian (01:13:29):
or the political system is doing.

Levon Zourabian (01:13:32):
So we have now every kind of agenda in Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (01:13:39):
Western agenda,

Levon Zourabian (01:13:40):
European agenda,

Levon Zourabian (01:13:41):
Russian agenda,

Levon Zourabian (01:13:43):
Turkish agenda,

Levon Zourabian (01:13:44):
Azeri agenda,

Levon Zourabian (01:13:46):
Iranian agenda,

Levon Zourabian (01:13:48):
but we don't have Armenian agenda anymore.

Levon Zourabian (01:13:51):
So one of the most important goals that should unite our nation is now once again rise to

Levon Zourabian (01:14:02):
to the state of creating our own Armenian agenda, not dependent on any external influence.

Levon Zourabian (01:14:14):
And that's the goal that we are trying now to negotiate with all the people,

Levon Zourabian (01:14:20):
all the political forces who share with us realism,

Levon Zourabian (01:14:30):
rationalism,

Levon Zourabian (01:14:32):
and willingness to create merely Armenian agenda, not dependent on any external influence.

Levon Zourabian (01:14:42):
And I believe that we can create that kind of a pole in the Armenian political system.

Levon Zourabian (01:14:51):
And when we create it, it will quickly become

Levon Zourabian (01:14:56):
the only, the main alternative to Nikol Pashinyan's regime.

Levon Zourabian (01:15:03):
And that will ensure that,

Levon Zourabian (01:15:07):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (01:15:08):
2026 elections can become a new opening for the Armenian nation.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:15:14):
Levon, for the sake of time, just one more question, maybe.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:15:20):
How do you see the current parliamentary opposition,

(01:15:24):
which includes,

Asbed Bedrossian (01:15:24):
of course,

Asbed Bedrossian (01:15:25):
also Serzh Sargsyan’s Pativ Unem alliance,

Asbed Bedrossian (01:15:29):
becoming relevant and offering or helping the opposition offer an alternative for the people.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:15:38):
What does the opposition need to do?

Asbed Bedrossian (01:15:40):
And that probably includes your party,

Asbed Bedrossian (01:15:42):
the ANC,

Asbed Bedrossian (01:15:43):
the National Congress,

Asbed Bedrossian (01:15:46):
to offer a real alternative for people to vote for.

Levon Zourabian (01:15:52):
That's what I was trying to speak about.

Levon Zourabian (01:15:56):
I mean,

Levon Zourabian (01:15:57):
I believe that those parties that currently are in the parliament,

Levon Zourabian (01:16:06):
they cannot offer anything valuable to the Armenian society,

Levon Zourabian (01:16:13):
to the Armenian nation.

Levon Zourabian (01:16:16):
You know,

Levon Zourabian (01:16:17):
they created some symbiosis between Nikol Pashinyan's governing party and this

Levon Zourabian (01:16:25):
titular,

Levon Zourabian (01:16:26):
as they call it,

Levon Zourabian (01:16:27):
opposition.

Levon Zourabian (01:16:30):
You know this phenomenon of symbiosis between different animals that cooperate

Levon Zourabian (01:16:37):
while not being friends,

Levon Zourabian (01:16:39):
they cooperate.

Levon Zourabian (01:16:41):
You know, what we see is the following.

Levon Zourabian (01:16:46):
This parliamentary opposition is a very convenient opposition for Nikol Pashinyan

Levon Zourabian (01:16:52):
because any criticism they raise immediately is being covered by accusation of

Levon Zourabian (01:17:04):
corruption in the past.

(01:17:06):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (01:17:06):
all the crimes that they have committed against the Armenian people,

Levon Zourabian (01:17:11):
et cetera,

Levon Zourabian (01:17:12):
et cetera.

Levon Zourabian (01:17:13):
So that they cannot really criticize or provide a real alternative to the

Levon Zourabian (01:17:21):
Pashinyan's government.

Levon Zourabian (01:17:24):
On the other hand, Pashinyan is very convenient government for this opposition because

Levon Zourabian (01:17:35):
against the background of its incompetency and,

(01:17:39):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (01:17:39):
failures in the Karabakh conflict and failures regarding the security,

Levon Zourabian (01:17:47):
they look very strong on those issues,

Levon Zourabian (01:17:54):
which allows them to,

(01:17:56):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (01:17:56):
somehow make the accusations of

Levon Zourabian (01:18:02):
corruptions look less important.

Levon Zourabian (01:18:11):
So we're all now hostage to this political system in Armenia.

Levon Zourabian (01:18:18):
We need to break it.

Levon Zourabian (01:18:20):
We need to come up with new ideas, with new political consolidation,

Levon Zourabian (01:18:28):
that would really make people believe that change is possible and make people

Levon Zourabian (01:18:37):
believe that there could be another vision of Armenia that is very attractive for

Levon Zourabian (01:18:48):
our society.

Levon Zourabian (01:18:50):
We are negotiating with different players and

Levon Zourabian (01:18:55):
One of the important parts of this negotiation is the platform on which we should unite.

Levon Zourabian (01:19:03):
We need to offer to our society, you know, very important parts of our platform.

Levon Zourabian (01:19:14):
How we are planning to, you know...

Levon Zourabian (01:19:19):
give our economy a boost,

Levon Zourabian (01:19:21):
how we are planning to reform our political system,

Levon Zourabian (01:19:28):
how we are planning to reach some technological breakthroughs because no economy

Levon Zourabian (01:19:34):
can grow significantly if it's not based on some important niche technologies that

Levon Zourabian (01:19:44):
only this country possesses and is able to

Levon Zourabian (01:19:50):
actually develop.

Levon Zourabian (01:19:52):
So we need to create this platform.

Levon Zourabian (01:19:56):
We are in the process of working on this platform.

Levon Zourabian (01:19:59):
We are in negotiations and I really believe that soon we will come up with a new

Levon Zourabian (01:20:09):
political force able to completely change the situation in Armenia

Levon Zourabian (01:20:17):
It would be a disruptive political technology,

Levon Zourabian (01:20:20):
I believe,

Levon Zourabian (01:20:22):
for our political system and for our society.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:20:27):
Mr. Zourabian,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:20:28):
so I think that in your previous answers,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:20:33):
you criticized the Armenian essentially political discourse as being between two

Hovik Manucharyan (01:20:38):
poles,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:20:39):
one by Nikol Pashinyan and the other pole represented by Robert Kocharyan.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:20:46):
However, I don't think you mentioned the Republican Party as part of those polls.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:20:52):
So I wanted to ask a direct question.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:20:55):
Do you see,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:20:56):
as part of your negotiations,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:20:58):
a potential rapprochement between the ANC,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:02):
your party,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:03):
and the Republican Party,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:04):
at least in terms of theory?

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:08):
And we know the history behind this because,

(01:21:11):
you know,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:11):
Levon Ter-Petrosyan,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:12):
despite the common knowledge,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:15):
which is that both president number two and president number three were enemies of

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:21):
Levon Ter-Petrosyan,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:23):
I think that

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:25):
the situation between president number three and president number one has been more

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:28):
nuanced because there have been offers to cooperate in the past.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:31):
And even more recently, Serzh Sargsyan in his interviews spoke fondly about Levon Ter-Petrosyan.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:38):
So I just want to pose a direct question.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:39):
Do you see a possible ANC and RPA alliance in 2026,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:21:45):
or do you exclude the possibility of that happening?

Levon Zourabian (01:21:49):
Well, I know that rumors are...

Levon Zourabian (01:21:52):
you know, circulating.

Levon Zourabian (01:21:56):
There's a lot of talk now in the social networks, in the media about that possibility.

Levon Zourabian (01:22:03):
But I have to be honest with you, we don't work on that.

Levon Zourabian (01:22:10):
The project that I was talking about is related to other political forces,

Levon Zourabian (01:22:19):
other political figures,

Levon Zourabian (01:22:23):
other intellectuals.

Levon Zourabian (01:22:25):
So we're not working on that.

Levon Zourabian (01:22:30):
I believe,

Levon Zourabian (01:22:31):
of course,

Levon Zourabian (01:22:33):
I don't think we need to,

Levon Zourabian (01:22:35):
you know,

Levon Zourabian (01:22:36):
fight against each other because there are more important issues now in Armenia to

Levon Zourabian (01:22:43):
be resolved.

Levon Zourabian (01:22:46):
But no, we are not planning...

Levon Zourabian (01:22:49):
creation of a block or electoral block with the Republican Party.

Levon Zourabian (01:22:56):
Maybe we can cooperate on some issues, but not the issue of going together to the elections.

(01:23:10):
Unfortunately,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:23:10):
the Armenian political universe is so small that I fail to think of any other

Hovik Manucharyan (01:23:18):
political force that would be part of this scheme if it's not the Republicans.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:23:22):
So can you give us some hints as to who,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:23:26):
or what are going to be the bases for these new sort of things,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:23:31):
new,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:23:32):
I guess,

Hovik Manucharyan (01:23:33):
consolidation that you envision?

Levon Zourabian (01:23:36):
Well, the only thing I can say is wait and see.

Levon Zourabian (01:23:42):
I cannot provide names.

Levon Zourabian (01:23:45):
It's a very broad spectrum of political figures and political forces that we are

Levon Zourabian (01:23:53):
negotiating with.

Levon Zourabian (01:23:56):
But the negotiations are still in progress and there is some confidentiality

Levon Zourabian (01:24:06):
protocols that we cannot break.

Levon Zourabian (01:24:11):
Okay, sounds good.

Levon Zourabian (01:24:13):
So please forgive me for being a little bit succinct on that, but I'm not going to name names.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:24:28):
OK, we will wait and we're eager to hear any news.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:24:33):
And thank you for addressing some of these speculations head on.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:24:39):
I think this is a good point to pause our discussion until a future date.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:24:45):
So I do appreciate your being our guest today.

Levon Zourabian (01:24:51):
What I can promise to you is that

Levon Zourabian (01:24:54):
When we come up with this new opening of this political alliance,

Levon Zourabian (01:25:04):
I am ready to give you interview first and speak in more detail.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:10):
That'll be great.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:12):
We look forward to that.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:13):
Thank you, Mr. Zourabian.

Levon Zourabian (01:25:14):
Thank you very much for this opportunity.

Levon Zourabian (01:25:16):
Sounds good.

Levon Zourabian (01:25:19):
Thank you.

(01:25:21):
All right.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:21):
Well, that's our show today.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:22):
This episode was recorded on May 23, 2025.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:25):
We've been talking with Mr.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:28):
Levon Zourabian,

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:29):
who is the vice president of the Armenian National Congress Party of Armenia,

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:33):
the ANC,

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:35):
which is led by the first president of Armenia,

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:37):
Levon Ter-Petrosyan,

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:38):
who was in office from 1991 to 1998.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:42):
Mr. Zourabian worked in the presidential administration as aide and chief spokesman to

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:46):
the president.

Asbed Bedrossian (01:25:47):
He currently makes appearances as a technical advocate for the ANC.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:25:51):
Thank you for hanging on with us, folks.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:25:54):
Just a quick reminder to comment, like, share our content.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:25:58):
If you're feeling generous, go to podcasts.groong.org slash donate or just to our website.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:26:05):
You will see a donate link on there.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:26:07):
And also explore the show notes for the show for other interesting notes and more

Hovik Manucharyan (01:26:12):
information about our guests.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:26:14):
Thank you for listening to us and we will talk to you soon.

Hovik Manucharyan (01:26:18):
Take care.

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