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Jeffrey Sachs - TRIPP down Zangezur Corridor, Armenian Strategy & Economy | Ep 466, Aug 29, 2025

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TRIPP down Zangezur Corridor, Armenian Economy

Conversations on Groong - Recorded on: August 28, 2025

Topics

  • Pashinyan, Aliyev, in the White House
  • What “Peace”?
  • Armenian Economy


Guest

Hosts


Episode 466 | Recorded: August 28, 2025


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Asbed (00:00:04):

Hello, and welcome to this Conversations on Groong episode.

Asbed (00:00:07):

Today,

Asbed (00:00:08):

we're talking with the world-famous scholar Jeffrey Sachs,

Asbed (00:00:11):

who is a renowned economist,

Asbed (00:00:13):

a recognized public policy expert,

Asbed (00:00:15):

and a professor of sustainable development,

Asbed (00:00:17):

poverty alleviation,

Asbed (00:00:19):

and global economic policy.

Asbed (00:00:21):

We'll talk about the recent twist in South Caucasus geopolitics, with the U.S.

Asbed (00:00:25):

inserting itself into the region through this trip, a.k.a.

Asbed (00:00:29):

Trump route, a.k.a.

Asbed (00:00:30):

Zangezur corridor, depends on who you're asking.

Asbed (00:00:33):

We'll also ask Professor Sachs for economic advice for Armenia.

Hovik (00:00:36):

Folks, we can't wait to begin our conversation with Professor Sachs.

Hovik (00:00:40):

But first, an obligatory request for your help.

Hovik (00:00:43):

You've heard of these 99-year leases on corridors,

Hovik (00:00:46):

but we're not asking you for that kind of a commitment.

Hovik (00:00:49):

One year at a time is good enough for us.

Hovik (00:00:51):

And why not?

Hovik (00:00:52):

We're the only independent English language podcast digging into Armenia,

Hovik (00:00:56):

the South Caucasus,

Hovik (00:00:57):

and global power games without any foreign funding.

Hovik (00:00:59):

No petrodollars.

Hovik (00:01:01):

No pipeline revenues.

Hovik (00:01:02):

And no backroom deals.

Hovik (00:01:04):

and not even Oval Office photo ops.

Hovik (00:01:08):

So if you'd like to help keep us peeling back the layers of these peace treaties,

Hovik (00:01:13):

these so-called corridors,

Hovik (00:01:14):

and booming economies that may not actually be that booming,

Hovik (00:01:18):

you can help us through Patreon or Buy Me A Coffee at podcasts.groong.org.

Asbed (00:01:24):

But hey, financial support is not for everyone.

Asbed (00:01:27):

And we understand that.

Asbed (00:01:29):

In which case, you can still do your share.

Asbed (00:01:31):

You can still help us.

Asbed (00:01:33):

Just COMMENT, LIKE, and SHARE the show with your friends.

Asbed (00:01:37):

Unlike the Trump Route, spreading the word doesn't need anyone's permission.

Hovik (00:01:40):

Thanks for being with us, folks.

Hovik (00:01:42):

Now let's get on with the show.

Asbed (00:01:44):

Professor Jeffrey Sachs, welcome back to The Groong Podcast.

Sachs (00:01:47):

Pleasure to be with you again.

Hovik (00:01:50):

Hello, Professor Sachs.

Sachs (00:01:51):

Greetings.

Sachs (00:01:52):

Nice to see you.

Asbed (00:01:53):

Professor,

Asbed (00:01:54):

on August 8th, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev met with Donald Trump in the Oval Office and

Asbed (00:01:58):

initiated what's being called a peace agreement.

Asbed (00:02:02):

The details are vague,

Asbed (00:02:03):

but the agreement includes some kind of an open transport link between mainland

Asbed (00:02:07):

Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan through Armenia along its border with Iran.

Asbed (00:02:12):

This link has been labeled TRIP, the Trump route for international peace and prosperity.

Asbed (00:02:17):

So today we're taking a trip down Zangezur Lane because it's also known as the

Asbed (00:02:21):

Zangezur Corridor by the Turkish side.

Asbed (00:02:24):

Control of this link was promised to Russia back in 2020,

Asbed (00:02:27):

and now it appears to have been promised to the US in 2025.

Asbed (00:02:32):

And the interesting thing is that Moscow's reaction has been mild and Trump and

Asbed (00:02:36):

Putin apparently did not raise this issue at the Alaska summit a couple of weeks

Asbed (00:02:41):

back.

Asbed (00:02:42):

Tehran, however, has repeated that the changes to Armenia's border will be completely unacceptable

Asbed (00:02:46):

to them.

Asbed (00:02:47):

Now, you have called this trip agreement provocative and dangerous,

Asbed (00:02:51):

warning that instead of securing peace,

Asbed (00:02:53):

it risks drawing Armenia into a regional war.

Asbed (00:02:56):

How?

Sachs (00:02:58):

In general, the United States likes to meddle on Russia's borders.

Sachs (00:03:05):

So this is another case of meddling.

Sachs (00:03:08):

The Armenian,

Sachs (00:03:10):

Georgian,

Sachs (00:03:11):

Azerbaijan,

Sachs (00:03:12):

South Caucasus region has been no stranger to great games and to big power

Sachs (00:03:18):

meddling.

Sachs (00:03:20):

The United States has long seen the South Caucasus as a way to get at

Sachs (00:03:26):

both Iran and Russia, which the US views as enemies, actually.

Sachs (00:03:33):

So Armenia is walking into another great power struggle,

Sachs (00:03:40):

I would advise against it,

Sachs (00:03:42):

as a general matter.

Sachs (00:03:47):

I have a general view.

Sachs (00:03:50):

Be prudent.

Sachs (00:03:52):

Connect with your neighbors, in this case, the other South Caucasus countries, of course.

Sachs (00:03:58):

So I'm not against peace with Azerbaijan, with all the tensions, and with Georgia.

Sachs (00:04:05):

But I'm also not in favor of provoking Iran or Turkey or Russia by US meddling.

Sachs (00:04:15):

If I were the U.S.

Sachs (00:04:17):

and Russia or China and Mexico announced a corridor with a 99-year lease for Russia

Sachs (00:04:29):

along the U.S.-Mexican border,

Sachs (00:04:32):

I'd say, no, thank you.

Sachs (00:04:36):

That's actually not going to work.

Sachs (00:04:39):

And it wouldn't happen.

Sachs (00:04:42):

Whether it came to blows, it would not happen.

Sachs (00:04:47):

So far,

Sachs (00:04:48):

Russia is,

Sachs (00:04:49):

I would say,

Sachs (00:04:50):

quiet because I doubt that Russia believes this will ever happen.

Sachs (00:04:55):

Iran isn't so quiet.

Sachs (00:04:58):

It also has said it will never happen.

Sachs (00:05:03):

I just think that there should be a little bit more prudence.

Sachs (00:05:08):

Countries get used or they try to use great powers for their own local advantage.

Sachs (00:05:16):

This has been no stranger to South Caucasus realities.

Sachs (00:05:23):

Georgia and the US used each other very badly, very unsuccessfully.

Sachs (00:05:30):

It led to the 2008 war in Georgia that came about because Saakashvili,

Sachs (00:05:39):

the Georgian leader,

Sachs (00:05:40):

was incredibly imprudent.

Sachs (00:05:43):

He was

Sachs (00:05:45):

kind of a tool of the U.S.

Sachs (00:05:50):

security state.

Sachs (00:05:52):

He liked that.

Sachs (00:05:54):

It's very flattering to have the backing of the CIA or the Pentagon or others.

Sachs (00:06:02):

And so they get flattered.

Sachs (00:06:04):

I listened to Saakashvili in 2008 talk about how wonderful all of this is,

Sachs (00:06:09):

how Georgia is a European country.

Sachs (00:06:11):

It's going to join NATO.

Sachs (00:06:14):

and so on. He gave this in a talk in New York at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Sachs (00:06:19):

I thought he was crazy.

Sachs (00:06:21):

A few weeks later, the war broke out.

Sachs (00:06:23):

So we may have talked about that before.

Sachs (00:06:26):

But the point is, you can look at this, a 99-year U.S.

Sachs (00:06:32):

quarter in the South Caucasus?

Sachs (00:06:36):

I don't think so.

Hovik (00:06:38):

So that is,

Hovik (00:06:41):

I guess, the question that is really annoying us because the 99-year lease,

Hovik (00:06:46):

as even Trump himself has admitted,

Hovik (00:06:48):

Tom Barak has admitted,

Hovik (00:06:51):

although I have to say the Armenian government is,

Hovik (00:06:54):

I think, deliberately keeping quiet,

Hovik (00:06:55):

but this is a century-long commitment from the U.S.

Hovik (00:06:58):

in the South Caucasus at a time when I think that the U.S.

Hovik (00:07:02):

is waning in terms of its military might, the ability to project

Hovik (00:07:06):

power, both militarily and economically.

Hovik (00:07:09):

And it seems to be in contradiction to the campaign promises by Trump to steer

Hovik (00:07:17):

clear of endless wars.

Hovik (00:07:19):

And now we're seeing what's happening in terms of the U.S.

Hovik (00:07:22):

involvement in Syunik,

Hovik (00:07:25):

which is the southern province of Armenia,

Hovik (00:07:27):

where Zangezur is,

Hovik (00:07:29):

and also Gaza.

Hovik (00:07:30):

At least initially, Trump was floating this idea about this Gaza

Hovik (00:07:35):

Riviera or whatever it's called.

Hovik (00:07:37):

How do you explain this,

Hovik (00:07:41):

Professor Sachs,

Hovik (00:07:42):

and what economic consequences do you worry about from this apparent shift in terms

Hovik (00:07:49):

of policy?

Sachs (00:07:51):

Well, first of all, Trump's attention span is maybe 99 minutes, not 99 years.

Sachs (00:07:59):

So the whole idea that this is a 99 year anything in this world is completely absurd.

Sachs (00:08:06):

The U.S.

Sachs (00:08:08):

right now does not have strategy.

Sachs (00:08:11):

It doesn't.

Sachs (00:08:13):

doesn't really have a foreign policy.

Sachs (00:08:15):

It doesn't have diplomacy.

Sachs (00:08:17):

Remember, Trump and Putin met a couple weeks ago in Alaska.

Sachs (00:08:22):

What came out of it?

Sachs (00:08:24):

Who knows?

Sachs (00:08:25):

That's ancient news.

Sachs (00:08:26):

You know, we're on to new threats, new instability.

Sachs (00:08:29):

This is unfortunately the mark of the United States right now.

Sachs (00:08:34):

None of this is thought out.

Sachs (00:08:36):

That's why an announcement like this is makes you roll your eyes or what?

Sachs (00:08:42):

Ninety nine year quarter of the United States.

Sachs (00:08:45):

Are you kidding?

Sachs (00:08:47):

So I don't give it much credence.

Sachs (00:08:51):

It raises another interesting issue, by the way, another little bit of a mystery.

Sachs (00:08:58):

Azerbaijan,

Sachs (00:09:00):

by public discussion right now,

Sachs (00:09:03):

but not absolute certainty,

Sachs (00:09:05):

is almost effectively an ally with Israel in Israel's war against Iran.

Sachs (00:09:17):

We don't know the extent of it,

Sachs (00:09:19):

but there's a lot of reports that Mossad,

Sachs (00:09:22):

the Israeli Murder and Intelligence Service,

Sachs (00:09:27):

and the Azerbaijan security services are in close alliance.

Sachs (00:09:34):

There is a lot of discussion that Azerbaijan was even a staging point for the

Sachs (00:09:44):

so-called 12-day war against Iran.

Sachs (00:09:48):

Oh, my God.

Sachs (00:09:49):

Is that what Armenia wants to walk into right now?

Sachs (00:09:52):

Seriously?

Sachs (00:09:53):

In the middle of absolutely crazy, genocidal Israeli government?

Sachs (00:10:05):

I wouldn't get anywhere close to that, frankly.

Sachs (00:10:09):

And if that's another part of this story, it's also really shocking and disturbing.

Sachs (00:10:16):

So we don't know.

Sachs (00:10:17):

I'm not just peddling rumors.

Sachs (00:10:20):

I'm talking about things that are widely discussed.

Sachs (00:10:23):

But something strange is underway of Azerbaijan and Israel at a time when I find

Sachs (00:10:32):

Israel's actions abhorrent,

Sachs (00:10:35):

way beyond anything justifiable or allowable under international law.

Sachs (00:10:41):

And that's yet another reason to worry that Armenia is putting itself in danger

Sachs (00:10:50):

in the middle of an ongoing conflict.

Sachs (00:10:53):

So Iran is a powerful neighbor.

Sachs (00:10:57):

It should be regarded as such and treated prudently in that regard.

Sachs (00:11:05):

Russia is a very powerful neighbor and it should be treated prudently.

Sachs (00:11:10):

Turkey is a powerful neighbor.

Sachs (00:11:12):

No one could accuse Armenia of having a quiet neighborhood.

Sachs (00:11:17):

This has been thousands of years of not an easy time,

Sachs (00:11:24):

but that demands a lot of prudence and smarts.

Sachs (00:11:29):

The United States

Sachs (00:11:31):

does not come under the rubric of prudent and smart right now.

Sachs (00:11:36):

It comes under the rubric of short-sighted, manipulative, and endangering its friends.

Sachs (00:11:45):

You know,

Sachs (00:11:46):

I often cite Henry Kissinger's famous adage that to be an enemy of the United

Sachs (00:11:52):

States is dangerous,

Sachs (00:11:54):

but to be a friend is fatal.

Sachs (00:12:02):

I would never as a sovereign country give up sovereignty over part of my territory,

Sachs (00:12:08):

especially when it is such a sensitive part of the territory.

Sachs (00:12:14):

I would never, never allow U.S.

Sachs (00:12:16):

security operations to come in.

Sachs (00:12:21):

even to, quote, protect the corridor.

Sachs (00:12:25):

That's a provocation in its own right.

Sachs (00:12:28):

Suppose the U.S.

Sachs (00:12:29):

says, well, this is our corridor.

Sachs (00:12:30):

Of course, we're going to police it.

Sachs (00:12:32):

Well, that means military or paramilitary presence on Iran's border.

Sachs (00:12:37):

Huh?

Sachs (00:12:38):

Are you kidding?

Sachs (00:12:39):

That's right.

Hovik (00:12:40):

Who could want this, honestly?

Hovik (00:12:44):

Professor Sachs,

Hovik (00:12:45):

so this corridor is being presented in a package in terms of peace and Trump cannot

Hovik (00:12:52):

miss an opportunity to say how great he is as a peacemaker.

Hovik (00:12:57):

And I want to ask you actually a really tough question because I feel that this

Hovik (00:12:59):

question doesn't get enough coverage.

Hovik (00:13:03):

So Armenia, obviously, Armenia lost greatly in the 2020 war.

Hovik (00:13:08):

And there is one thought that after the war in Karabakh,

Hovik (00:13:14):

after the loss,

Hovik (00:13:15):

Pashinyan basically decided to cut his own political losses.

Hovik (00:13:19):

And by completely ceding and capitulating on Karabakh,

Hovik (00:13:24):

he could flip over to the U.S.

Hovik (00:13:26):

orbit.

Hovik (00:13:27):

Now, that's all fine and dandy,

Hovik (00:13:29):

but this is all being used,

Hovik (00:13:32):

being couched in the language of peace.

Hovik (00:13:34):

But I want to remind our listeners and ask your opinion,

Hovik (00:13:37):

because 150,000 Armenians from Karabakh have been driven out.

Hovik (00:13:42):

They cannot go back.

Hovik (00:13:44):

The 17-point document,

Hovik (00:13:46):

which they were initialed in the White House,

Hovik (00:13:48):

has no mention about their right of return to their homes.

Hovik (00:13:52):

I have many personal friends whose family graves are there.

Hovik (00:13:56):

And to think that without any kind of security guarantees,

Hovik (00:14:00):

without any kind of international presence,

Hovik (00:14:03):

that Armenians can go to Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:14:05):

which we use all of them as criminals,

Hovik (00:14:07):

at least anyone who has any male who has participated

Hovik (00:14:12):

any military-aged male would be viewed as a criminal by Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:14:16):

So going there without any security guarantees is out of question.

Hovik (00:14:21):

And Pashinyan says that even raising this issue about the right of collective

Hovik (00:14:26):

return, the right of security guarantees,

Hovik (00:14:28):

the right of cultural heritage of Armenians in Artsakh is a threat to Armenia's

Hovik (00:14:34):

security.

Hovik (00:14:35):

That is actually the language he's using.

Hovik (00:14:36):

He's saying that that is a threat

Hovik (00:14:39):

And this so-called corridor also serves Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Hovik (00:14:45):

Armenia does not have any east-west trade.

Hovik (00:14:47):

It has north and south trade.

Hovik (00:14:49):

So it'd be great if we had a corridor,

Hovik (00:14:51):

a better corridor,

Hovik (00:14:52):

better access north and south,

Hovik (00:14:53):

but none of that is being offered to Armenia.

Hovik (00:14:55):

So this is all basically concessions all the way down when you look at it from

Hovik (00:15:00):

Armenia's perspective.

Hovik (00:15:02):

And now we're even being forced,

Hovik (00:15:05):

or at least Azerbaijan is saying,

Hovik (00:15:07):

we're not going to sign any peace deal without Armenians changing their

Hovik (00:15:11):

constitution,

Hovik (00:15:12):

which is

Hovik (00:15:14):

I would say without complete military victory,

Hovik (00:15:17):

without Azerbaijani tanks rolling down the streets of Yerevan,

Hovik (00:15:20):

I don't think Armenians would go to the polling booth to change their constitution

Hovik (00:15:24):

to Aliyev's wishes.

Hovik (00:15:26):

So I want to ask you, is peace even possible?

Hovik (00:15:30):

And what is the risk when international media commentators all talk about this in

Hovik (00:15:36):

terms of,

Hovik (00:15:37):

yeah, let's have peace,

Hovik (00:15:39):

let's negotiate, but in reality,

Hovik (00:15:41):

in the absence of any guarantees,

Hovik (00:15:42):

in the absence of any

Hovik (00:15:44):

international community or forum where peace can be negotiated fairly,

Hovik (00:15:49):

I don't see how that's possible.

Hovik (00:15:52):

What are your thoughts on this?

Sachs (00:15:54):

Well, of course,

Sachs (00:15:55):

there are many issues that I'm not at all qualified to discuss in detail because I

Sachs (00:16:02):

don't know all of the deep background.

Sachs (00:16:06):

What I can say categorically is there's no such thing as Armenia finding its security

Sachs (00:16:16):

by the U.S.

Sachs (00:16:18):

The U.S.

Sachs (00:16:19):

is thousands of miles away.

Sachs (00:16:20):

Armenia counts for nothing in the U.S.

Sachs (00:16:25):

political scene.

Sachs (00:16:28):

Of course, there are Armenian Americans.

Sachs (00:16:29):

I don't mean to denigrate Armenia, but I want it to be very plain.

Sachs (00:16:34):

This is not a big deal.

Sachs (00:16:35):

We fully agree with you.

Sachs (00:16:37):

Well, just to say from an American point of view,

Sachs (00:16:41):

This doesn't even hit the radar screen in the first section of the news,

Sachs (00:16:48):

so you wouldn't find it anywhere.

Sachs (00:16:51):

And in this sense, Armenia will not find security from the U.S.

Sachs (00:16:59):

That's a tough statement because Armenia doesn't have easy options, period.

Sachs (00:17:05):

It's in a contested region.

Sachs (00:17:07):

Three big powers are neighbors, Iran, Turkey, and Russia.

Sachs (00:17:14):

None of them is an easy neighbor, I have to say.

Sachs (00:17:18):

And your immediate neighbor, Azerbaijan, is not an easy neighbor.

Sachs (00:17:23):

There are lots of problems.

Sachs (00:17:26):

My only point is...

Sachs (00:17:28):

both from history and my own personal experience over many decades,

Sachs (00:17:34):

is to solve this will require actually direct diplomacy of Armenia,

Sachs (00:17:42):

Azerbaijan,

Sachs (00:17:44):

and Georgia,

Sachs (00:17:45):

because Georgia has a big,

Sachs (00:17:48):

involvement in this also plus turkey iran and russia and one of the points is that

Sachs (00:17:57):

turkey iran and russia do not want any of the other two to gain any kind of

Sachs (00:18:03):

decisive advantage in this neighborhood so there's a fragile equilibrium

Sachs (00:18:10):

in which the major powers say, let's leave well enough alone.

Sachs (00:18:15):

We would like stability in the South Caucasus.

Sachs (00:18:19):

And it's important for us in both the North-South Corridor and the East-West Corridor.

Sachs (00:18:25):

And just because of that, there is actually an opportunity to,

Sachs (00:18:33):

to have an economic understanding and a security understanding because your

Sachs (00:18:42):

powerful and difficult neighbors don't want to make things more difficult for

Sachs (00:18:48):

themselves vis-a-vis the other powers.

Sachs (00:18:52):

the united states in my view has no role to play in that i look at a map and i

Sachs (00:18:59):

believe that neighborhoods matter a lot if you live next to a difficult neighbor

Sachs (00:19:07):

and you've got another difficult neighbor across the street

Sachs (00:19:10):

Well,

Sachs (00:19:11):

OK, you're in a tough neighborhood,

Sachs (00:19:13):

but you don't expect the person living six miles away to give you the protection

Sachs (00:19:20):

that you want.

Sachs (00:19:21):

You try to find an arrangement that's going to make your neighborhood workable,

Sachs (00:19:26):

maybe some streetlights,

Sachs (00:19:27):

maybe some understanding that your backyard should be safe because that's going to

Sachs (00:19:34):

be to the whole advantage of the neighborhood and so on.

Sachs (00:19:37):

But you don't expect that.

Sachs (00:19:40):

the help to come from halfway around the world.

Sachs (00:19:43):

Of course, it's very

Sachs (00:19:45):

flattering that Pashinyan sat with Donald Trump in the White House.

Sachs (00:19:51):

How wonderful is that?

Sachs (00:19:53):

But completely meaningless from the real story of Armenia day to day, where the U.S.

Sachs (00:20:02):

means nothing in terms of the balance of power of the regional powers.

Sachs (00:20:08):

And as you rightly pointed out,

Sachs (00:20:11):

You know,

Sachs (00:20:12):

the east-west corridor can be helpful for Armenia,

Sachs (00:20:15):

but for Armenia,

Sachs (00:20:16):

the north-south corridor is also helpful.

Sachs (00:20:19):

And if one cancels the other, you've just made an absolutely fundamental mistake.

Sachs (00:20:26):

So all of this...

Sachs (00:20:28):

strikes me as wrongheaded, the way that it's discussed, the way that it's going.

Sachs (00:20:34):

And I'm worried because I see it in the context of the unending games that the CIA

Sachs (00:20:42):

and others play to basically annoy Russia and Iran.

Sachs (00:20:48):

And when I say annoy, I mean something worse than just picking on emotions.

Sachs (00:20:53):

I mean, provoking conflicts.

Asbed (00:20:56):

Professor,

Asbed (00:20:57):

for our last topic,

Asbed (00:20:59):

I wanted to talk a little bit about the Armenian economy because for a country that

Asbed (00:21:04):

lost a devastating war in 2020,

Asbed (00:21:06):

the economy in Armenia has surprised many observers.

Asbed (00:21:09):

The GDP has grown close to double digits pretty much every year.

Asbed (00:21:13):

Remittances have poured into the country, tech sector booming.

Asbed (00:21:16):

And until this year,

Asbed (00:21:18):

earlier this year,

Asbed (00:21:19):

the important trade sector had soared through the so-called re-export component.

Asbed (00:21:23):

This is the component which really relied on

Asbed (00:21:26):

The Ukraine war, sanction busting, trade in and out of Russia, basically through Armenia.

Asbed (00:21:32):

Of course, this is going away now because the Ukraine war has sort of run its course.

Asbed (00:21:37):

Yet even so,

Asbed (00:21:38):

40% of Armenia's economy is directly tied to Russia,

Asbed (00:21:42):

even as the Armenian government is dreaming about the EU,

Asbed (00:21:46):

joining the EU membership.

Asbed (00:21:48):

How sustainable is this growth?

Asbed (00:21:50):

Is Armenia's economy truly stable?

Asbed (00:21:53):

And what risks do you see ahead?

Asbed (00:21:55):

We're looking for some kind of advice as to how to put Armenia's economy on a good

Asbed (00:22:00):

level for its citizens.

Sachs (00:22:02):

First,

Sachs (00:22:03):

I'm again sorry to say,

Sachs (00:22:04):

and I don't mean to be a bearer of bad news or just negative,

Sachs (00:22:09):

but I think it is such a long shot that Armenia would ever join the European Union.

Sachs (00:22:17):

If you're a classical geographer,

Sachs (00:22:19):

it's actually the case that Armenia is in Asia,

Sachs (00:22:23):

and so is Georgia,

Sachs (00:22:26):

and so is Azerbaijan,

Sachs (00:22:29):

because the divide between Europe and Asia is the ridge of the Great Caucasus'

Sachs (00:22:35):

range.

Sachs (00:22:37):

And so this isn't even geographic Europe.

Sachs (00:22:41):

If you look at the European Union,

Sachs (00:22:44):

Oh, my God.

Sachs (00:22:45):

It's really pathetic now in terms of the lack of strategy, clarity.

Sachs (00:22:52):

What are they doing?

Sachs (00:22:53):

You're going to join so you can raise military spending to 5% of GDP?

Sachs (00:22:58):

It's crazy.

Sachs (00:22:59):

Europe is stagnant and in a completely confused surly state of affairs.

Sachs (00:23:06):

So just to say that I don't believe that the EU membership is part of this.

Sachs (00:23:15):

The South Caucasus is a remarkable region.

Sachs (00:23:20):

First, very beautiful, very touristic.

Sachs (00:23:24):

It has many great natural attributes.

Sachs (00:23:30):

It also is and has been for thousands of years

Sachs (00:23:34):

the gateway between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, and Eastern Asia.

Sachs (00:23:43):

And that's not a bad place to be in peace.

Sachs (00:23:47):

It's a terrible place to be in war.

Sachs (00:23:50):

And so the point is peace and using the combination of

Sachs (00:24:00):

Armenia's own economic endowments,

Sachs (00:24:03):

which start with its people,

Sachs (00:24:05):

its culture,

Sachs (00:24:06):

its natural beauty,

Sachs (00:24:08):

its agriculture resources,

Sachs (00:24:11):

its other resources and its geography as a gateway east,

Sachs (00:24:17):

west and north,

Sachs (00:24:18):

south. Those are the basic attributes for economic development.

Sachs (00:24:24):

Naturally, countries trade with their neighbors.

Sachs (00:24:28):

This is called the gravity principle in economic trade, like the physical force of gravity.

Sachs (00:24:36):

So Armenia is going to trade with Russia.

Sachs (00:24:38):

It's going to trade with Turkey.

Sachs (00:24:40):

It's going to trade with Iran, as well as trading more broadly in the world.

Sachs (00:24:46):

It's going to have tourists who are going to come to see Armenia and its great

Sachs (00:24:51):

history and culture.

Sachs (00:24:53):

and to see georgia and to see azerbaijan and other places in the neighborhood so

Sachs (00:25:02):

all of this is to say an accurate assessment is first of all not based on uh not

Sachs (00:25:09):

not based on um

Sachs (00:25:12):

the peculiarities and vagaries of the Ukraine war and smuggling and sanctions or whatever.

Sachs (00:25:19):

It's actually based on human skills,

Sachs (00:25:24):

on culture,

Sachs (00:25:25):

on the physical geography,

Sachs (00:25:29):

on trade and finance with the neighbors,

Sachs (00:25:34):

and on the long-term development of the

Sachs (00:25:39):

basically Eurasia.

Sachs (00:25:42):

And by Eurasia, of course, I mean both Europe and the vast expanse of Asia.

Sachs (00:25:48):

China will play a big role in Armenia's future economically,

Sachs (00:25:54):

not in a dedicated corridor with security,

Sachs (00:25:57):

but economically.

Sachs (00:25:59):

India will play a surprisingly large role because India will be the most populous

Sachs (00:26:04):

country and a very large economy at least the third largest in the world if not

Sachs (00:26:09):

someday overtaking the united states and becoming the second largest in the next 30

Sachs (00:26:16):

or 40 years so that's the basic

Sachs (00:26:20):

answer which is invest in high skills then you'll have the high tech invest in the

Sachs (00:26:27):

north south and east west corridors invest in peace in the neighborhood good

Sachs (00:26:32):

relations with the neighbors and a lot of good things can happen

Asbed (00:26:39):

Okay. Well, I don't think we have better advice to finish on.

Asbed (00:26:42):

So thank you so much for joining us today and for your time and your insight.

Asbed (00:26:46):

We love having you on this show.

Asbed (00:26:48):

Thank you, sir.

Sachs (00:26:49):

Always, always a pleasure. See you again soon, I hope.

Asbed (00:26:51):

Talk to you again.

Hovik (00:26:51):

Thank you, Professor Sachs.

Sachs (00:26:52):

Thanks a lot.

Sachs (00:26:53):

Bye-bye.

Asbed (00:26:54):

That's our show today.

Asbed (00:26:55):

This episode was recorded on August 28, 2025.

Asbed (00:26:58):

We've been talking with Professor Jeffrey Sachs,

Asbed (00:27:01):

who is the president of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and

Asbed (00:27:06):

director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University.

Asbed (00:27:10):

He is the author of many bestselling books,

Asbed (00:27:12):

including The End of Poverty and The Ages of Globalization,

Asbed (00:27:16):

For more,

Asbed (00:27:17):

you can see his page on our website,

Asbed (00:27:20):

podcasts.groong.org / episode-number and follow the links.

Hovik (00:27:25):

And before we bid you farewell, I would like to ask you for one small request.

Hovik (00:27:31):

Hundreds of you listen to us on various platforms such as Substack, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.

Hovik (00:27:38):

If you use those platforms,

Hovik (00:27:39):

please make sure that you subscribe to us on those platforms specifically.

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Subscribing helps push our episodes to more people and allows us to grow on those platforms.

Hovik (00:27:50):

And it's free.

Hovik (00:27:52):

It's something that you can do to help us.

Hovik (00:27:54):

And if you're using Apple Podcasts specifically,

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Hovik (00:28:00):

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And it doesn't have to be long.

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Asbed (00:28:23):

We really appreciate your support.

Asbed (00:28:26):

It helps us keep the show going and growing.

Asbed (00:28:29):

Thank you very much.

Asbed (00:28:30):

I'm Asbed Bedrossian in Los Angeles.

Hovik (00:28:33):

And I'm Hovik Manucharyan in Yerevan.

Hovik (00:28:35):

We'll talk to you soon.

Hovik (00:28:37):

Take care.

People on this episode

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Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
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Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
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Jeffrey Sachs

Guest

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