Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

44-Day War: A Tale of Betrayal | Ep 476, Sep 28, 2025

• Armenian News Network / Groong • Episode 476

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44-Day War: A Tale of Betrayal

Groong Week in Review - September 28, 2025

Topics

  • Pashinyan’s rise and Western backing
  • Breakdown of talks and secret meetings
  • Failures and propaganda during the war
  • Aftermath, revisionism, and political responsibility


Hosts


Episode 476 | Recorded: September 28, 2025

https://podcasts.groong.org/476


Subscribe and follow us everywhere you are: linktr.ee/groong

Asbed (00:00:06):

Hello everyone and welcome to the Armenian News Network Groong Week in Review for

Asbed (00:00:10):

September 28th,

Asbed (00:00:11):

2025. This week we're doing without a guest, so it's just the two of us and I'm Ararat Bedrossian.

Hovik (00:00:17):

And I'm Ararat Manucharyan for this episode.

Hovik (00:00:20):

That's right. And we're doing this in honor of the...

Hovik (00:00:23):

authorities in Armenia who love that name a lot.

Asbed (00:00:27):

We're not about to rename ourselves.

Asbed (00:00:29):

We started this show thinking that we are going to have a number of topics,

Asbed (00:00:33):

just kind of like our kitchen sink and discuss them.

Asbed (00:00:36):

We had decided we're not going to have a guest and just two of us talking.

Asbed (00:00:40):

But of course, it was September 27 yesterday.

Asbed (00:00:42):

That was,

Asbed (00:00:45):

well, we decided to dedicate a lot of our conversation to that and whatever other topics

Asbed (00:00:51):

derive from it.

Hovik (00:00:53):

We're not military experts,

Hovik (00:00:56):

so much of what we're going to talk about is a reflection of what's printed in the

Hovik (00:01:01):

media.

Hovik (00:01:03):

And unfortunately,

Hovik (00:01:04):

there is no definitive history of what happened in the 44-day war and the

Hovik (00:01:10):

catastrophic losses that Armenia incurred.

Hovik (00:01:13):

And my guess is that there won't be because,

Hovik (00:01:16):

you know, we'll talk about the efforts to cover up,

Hovik (00:01:18):

to hide the details of the war and so forth.

Hovik (00:01:22):

But that is not what the Armenian government is interested in,

Hovik (00:01:25):

which is to truly investigate this.

Asbed (00:01:27):

As far back as 2020, 2021, we actually called on this show for a full investigation.

Asbed (00:01:34):

And we even had

Asbed (00:01:37):

One expert who was actually doing a similar work to call for a commission on the

Asbed (00:01:44):

war,

Asbed (00:01:45):

but nothing ever happened.

Hovik (00:01:47):

You know, I just want to preface this discussion by saying that on behalf of Asbed and I,

Hovik (00:01:52):

I would like to offer our respect and our profound honor for all those who have

Hovik (00:02:00):

given their most valuable,

Hovik (00:02:03):

for all those who have been martyred and those who have gone to the battlefield for

Hovik (00:02:08):

their country.

Hovik (00:02:10):

Thank you for your service.

Hovik (00:02:12):

So where do we want to begin, Asbed?

Hovik (00:02:14):

I mean, we have a lot to cover.

Hovik (00:02:16):

I think that maybe for those who are uninitiated or don't follow Armenian politics

Hovik (00:02:24):

and history over the last five years,

Hovik (00:02:26):

I think it might be useful to paint an overall timeline of the events in Armenia.

Asbed (00:02:32):

Yeah, I mean, starting this on September 27th would be tough.

Asbed (00:02:35):

You probably want to give a little bit of a

Asbed (00:02:37):

a background all the way back to,

Asbed (00:02:39):

I mean, I don't want to go back to independence,

Asbed (00:02:41):

but 2018 at least.

Hovik (00:02:44):

Yeah,

Hovik (00:02:45):

2018 was a critical moment when Nikol Pashinyan came to power in a coup,

Hovik (00:02:49):

what some would call a color revolution,

Hovik (00:02:53):

and what others who were suffering from euphoria at the time called it Armenian

Hovik (00:03:00):

Christmas.

Hovik (00:03:01):

So that was 2018, the events of April, May.

Hovik (00:03:06):

And essentially the streets filled with people very unexpectedly,

Hovik (00:03:13):

but very similar to other places where color revolutions have taken place.

Hovik (00:03:18):

And Pashinyan rode that wave of euphoria all the way to the 2020 war.

Hovik (00:03:23):

You can say he basically had a carte blanche to do anything internally in Armenia

Hovik (00:03:28):

that he wanted to.

Hovik (00:03:29):

including changing the makeup of the constitutional court and whatnot.

Hovik (00:03:34):

Then the 2020 war happened, and we will go into this in more detail, but it was a 44-day war.

Hovik (00:03:41):

A significant part of Artsakh was occupied by Azerbaijan, and the way that war was executed

Hovik (00:03:50):

managed the way things that led the events that led up to that war and things that

Hovik (00:03:54):

followed will be the focus of our discussion today and since since then since 2020

Hovik (00:04:01):

November we've had multiple smaller wars that each of those themselves could you

Hovik (00:04:07):

know in magnitude were larger than for instance in terms of men lost were larger

Hovik (00:04:15):

than the Georgian war for instance in 2008

Hovik (00:04:18):

The 2021 elections where Nikol Pashinyan,

Hovik (00:04:21):

after losing Artsakh,

Hovik (00:04:23):

or after losing the war,

Hovik (00:04:26):

promised the occupation of Shushi and Hadrut.

Hovik (00:04:29):

And again, people seem to trust him.

Hovik (00:04:31):

At least there were still enough people to trust him to help him fake elections in

Hovik (00:04:36):

such a manner that it would be possible.

Hovik (00:04:38):

And then 2023, complete ethnic cleansing of Artsakh.

Hovik (00:04:41):

We talked about it during the last show, so we won't focus on that too much.

Hovik (00:04:46):

And since 2023,

Hovik (00:04:48):

we have a period of historical revisionism and at the same time talk about peace

Hovik (00:04:57):

and demilitarization and setting the framework for Armenia to be a...

Hovik (00:05:02):

A docile attachment to basically Azerbaijani foreign policy,

Hovik (00:05:09):

completely detached from its previous status as an independent power in the

Hovik (00:05:15):

Caucasus that carried its own weight.

Asbed (00:05:17):

The correct word would be a vilayet, basically.

Hovik (00:05:21):

Well, vilayet implies Turkish.

Hovik (00:05:23):

You know, I think we would be lucky if we were a vilayet.

Hovik (00:05:26):

Erdogan will outsource Armenia to Aliyev.

Asbed (00:05:29):

That's what's happened.

Hovik (00:05:31):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:05:32):

I mean, you would need to be Armenian to understand the history and the personal history,

Hovik (00:05:36):

how personal this is,

Hovik (00:05:38):

seeing what's happened,

Hovik (00:05:39):

what's going on.

Hovik (00:05:40):

But...

Hovik (00:05:41):

We're two Armenians and we're going to say it from the way it comes out from our

Hovik (00:05:46):

hearts and from our minds.

Asbed (00:05:49):

As far as 2018 goes,

Asbed (00:05:52):

you have often made the association between a RAND research paper from 2019 and

Asbed (00:05:58):

what has happened over the course of the last five years.

Asbed (00:06:02):

Why don't you talk a little bit about that?

Asbed (00:06:04):

Because that'll also explain essentially what's been happening.

Asbed (00:06:09):

That research paper was almost like a verbatim blueprint for what Pashinyan has

Asbed (00:06:16):

effectively been engineering over the past five,

Asbed (00:06:19):

six, seven years.

Hovik (00:06:20):

This paper,

Hovik (00:06:22):

RAND Corporation, Extending Russia, in 2019,

Hovik (00:06:24):

spells out all the ways that the West is going to irritate Russia.

Hovik (00:06:29):

And one of those ways was in Artsakh.

Hovik (00:06:33):

So that's just one component of Western foreign policy.

Hovik (00:06:36):

It was actually authored in 2019 after the Armenian revolution or regime change or coup.

Hovik (00:06:45):

But we also know that the West has a history of color revolutions.

Hovik (00:06:49):

And the Armenian revolution, I would say, is no less a color revolution than all the other ones.

Hovik (00:06:54):

Unfortunately,

Hovik (00:06:56):

Armenia is so down in the list of priorities that many people,

Hovik (00:06:59):

when they say color revolutions,

Hovik (00:07:01):

They go as far as Georgia in terms of enumerating them.

Asbed (00:07:05):

Yeah, and Hovik, why don't you give us a very brief rundown of who these revolutionaries were?

Hovik (00:07:13):

Nikol Pashinyan is the head.

Hovik (00:07:16):

You know, he has a long history in Armenia.

Hovik (00:07:18):

Started off as a journalist, a yellow journalist, essentially.

Hovik (00:07:22):

He has a reputation,

Hovik (00:07:24):

whether it's correct or not,

Hovik (00:07:26):

but he has a reputation for essentially taking bribes in order to not to write hit

Hovik (00:07:32):

pieces on people.

Hovik (00:07:35):

And he was associated with Levon Ter-Petrosyan.

Hovik (00:07:39):

wing in Armenian politics.

Hovik (00:07:41):

He has a history of being Ashot Bleyan's election campaign manager in the late,

Hovik (00:07:47):

I believe,

Asbed (00:07:50):

1990s.

Hovik (00:07:50):

1990s? Yep.

Hovik (00:07:51):

And,

Hovik (00:07:53):

you know, if you know who Ashot Bleyan is,

Hovik (00:07:56):

he was one of the few people in Armenia who was arguing that,

Hovik (00:07:59):

you know,

Hovik (00:08:00):

Armenia should just get rid of Artsakh or Karabakh and let it be part of

Hovik (00:08:05):

Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:08:06):

Obviously,

Asbed (00:08:07):

deeply influential on Nikol Pashinyan because Pashinyan himself has penned articles

Asbed (00:08:12):

all the way back to 2001,

Asbed (00:08:13):

I think.

Hovik (00:08:14):

Well, in his book, he mentions these lands that nobody needs.

Hovik (00:08:19):

Why do we need these lands?

Hovik (00:08:23):

In the 2001 article, he talked about giving a corridor to Turks to pass through Armenia.

Hovik (00:08:32):

But all this goes to say that he had these ideas about switching Armenia.

Hovik (00:08:38):

from a north-south to an east-west communication for a long time.

Hovik (00:08:44):

And in fact,

Hovik (00:08:45):

Levon Ter-Petersen's team,

Hovik (00:08:46):

Jirayr Libaridian,

Hovik (00:08:48):

advisor to Levon Ter-Petrosyan,

Hovik (00:08:49):

were working on the Turkish direction for a long time.

Hovik (00:08:53):

So Nikol Pashinyan,

Hovik (00:08:54):

then eventually in 2012 or 2013,

Hovik (00:08:58):

he went to jail for inciting violence during the 2008 protests.

Hovik (00:09:07):

And after coming back from being freed from jail,

Hovik (00:09:10):

he went into politics and he became a member of parliament.

Hovik (00:09:15):

And he has essentially,

Hovik (00:09:17):

he was initially allied with Levon Ter-Petrosyan's political party,

Hovik (00:09:21):

which was called Armenian National Congress.

Hovik (00:09:24):

But then he started his own party called Civil Contract,

Hovik (00:09:27):

along with a number of people who are at the

Hovik (00:09:29):

forefront today I believe Ararat Mirzoyan was one of those people, maybe Arabat

Hovik (00:09:35):

Mirzoyan if he prefers that or Aragats Mirzoyan...

Asbed (00:09:37):

Bbut there's also Armen Gregorian you

Asbed (00:09:42):

know these people and a whole handful more...

Hovik (00:09:46):

And all of them have a history of working for Western NGOs,

Hovik (00:09:51):

a history of,

Hovik (00:09:54):

you know,

Hovik (00:09:55):

espousing anti-Russian views.

Hovik (00:09:57):

Ararat Mirzoyan,

Hovik (00:09:59):

in fact, has this famous picture of attending a protest in Armenia at the Russian embassy

Hovik (00:10:06):

and carrying this sign called Fuck Putin or...

Hovik (00:10:08):

Yeah, something like that.

Hovik (00:10:11):

So,

Hovik (00:10:13):

in fact,

Hovik (00:10:14):

I'm just going to say that he was revealed to be an informant for the Armenian

Hovik (00:10:19):

National Security Services.

Hovik (00:10:21):

but also the opposition alleges that he was recruited by Turkish special forces.

Hovik (00:10:27):

Now,

Hovik (00:10:28):

Ararat Mirzoyan eventually admitted that,

Hovik (00:10:30):

yes, he is an informant for the Armenian NSS,

Hovik (00:10:33):

but that's where he stopped.

Asbed (00:10:36):

But not the Turkish NSS.

Hovik (00:10:38):

Yes, but what's interesting is the way that he penned that letter.

Hovik (00:10:43):

People in the opposition allege that

Hovik (00:10:47):

that form of recruitment or,

Hovik (00:10:50):

you know,

Hovik (00:10:52):

to be an informant is done only when you're like a double agent.

Hovik (00:10:55):

So if you've been recruited by the Turks,

Hovik (00:10:58):

for instance, then you would be made to sign a letter like that promising to provide information

Hovik (00:11:03):

to the Armenian government.

Hovik (00:11:05):

And Ararat Mirzoyan used to be a historian and genocide researcher.

Hovik (00:11:08):

And I think he also spent some time in Turkey.

Hovik (00:11:12):

Ruben Rubinyan is another prominent Civil Contract person.

Hovik (00:11:16):

So the way that it happened was Nikol Pashinyan and a group of his cronies started

Hovik (00:11:22):

walking from Gyumri,

Hovik (00:11:23):

second largest city in Armenia,

Hovik (00:11:24):

to Yerevan.

Hovik (00:11:25):

And it was presented, it was a very nice PR job.

Hovik (00:11:29):

It was presented as, you know, Jesus coming to Jerusalem, you know, almost.

Hovik (00:11:35):

And when he came to Yerevan,

Hovik (00:11:37):

he had that little incident,

Hovik (00:11:39):

whatever, you know,

Hovik (00:11:40):

they bandaged his hand.

Hovik (00:11:41):

There's this famous picture of Monte Melkonian with his hand bandaged and the blood on it.

Hovik (00:11:46):

And they mimicked that image for Pashinyan, essentially.

Hovik (00:11:52):

And that just goes to symbolize that throughout his initial years,

Hovik (00:11:56):

he was seen as very,

Hovik (00:11:57):

you know,

Hovik (00:11:58):

and he used very patriotic,

Hovik (00:12:00):

very uncompromising,

Hovik (00:12:02):

militaristic language.

Hovik (00:12:03):

I remember that

Hovik (00:12:06):

I don't know about you,

Hovik (00:12:08):

Asbed, what you felt at the time,

Hovik (00:12:09):

but there were a lot of people who were uneasy at the time.

Asbed (00:12:13):

And I remember that as soon as... Well, I've told you, Hovig.

Asbed (00:12:18):

It's a little difficult to admit after all these years, but at the time...

Asbed (00:12:23):

I won't say that I was sympathetic to them,

Asbed (00:12:24):

but I was accepting of the events because they were campaigning in a sense on the

Asbed (00:12:32):

eradication of corruption and things like that.

Asbed (00:12:35):

And we all thought the biggest problem that Armenia had at the time was corruption.

Asbed (00:12:41):

But it was definitely a PR job.

Asbed (00:12:44):

And as far as I'm concerned, that lasted for about a year, year and a half.

Asbed (00:12:48):

And when the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan happened,

Asbed (00:12:52):

and I'd already found out some of this background,

Asbed (00:12:55):

I was flipped to your side,

Asbed (00:12:58):

essentially,

Asbed (00:12:59):

to think that these people were brought for a job.

Hovik (00:13:03):

Well, I mean, for me, the decision boundary is November 10, 2020.

Hovik (00:13:09):

Anyone who is after that date who is with Nikol Pashinyan has no capability,

Hovik (00:13:16):

in my mind,

Hovik (00:13:17):

of being redeemed,

Hovik (00:13:18):

unfortunately.

Hovik (00:13:19):

I think you see a little bit of gray area there.

Asbed (00:13:25):

Well, we have a little bit of gray area until the elections of 2021.

Asbed (00:13:28):

I'm accepting of people who stayed with that team and rolled off with 2021.

Asbed (00:13:35):

But after that, no, there's no redemption for people who stayed on.

Hovik (00:13:40):

um yeah and um anyway i mean the the the euphoria that existed on the streets at

Hovik (00:13:46):

the time was indescribable i mean i had like so many arguments with my friends i

Hovik (00:13:52):

remember going to my uh one of my relatives uh place and i said look you know i

Hovik (00:13:58):

just something doesn't feel right about this and i was told uh well you know

Hovik (00:14:04):

I think you just have to go cleanse your soul.

Hovik (00:14:06):

I was told something like that and then you will see the light.

Hovik (00:14:12):

It was like I was caught.

Hovik (00:14:14):

But I told like as soon as Pashinyan in May,

Hovik (00:14:16):

I mean,

Hovik (00:14:17):

I was following with a lot of distress,

Hovik (00:14:20):

but on May 8,

Hovik (00:14:21):

2018, when Pashinyan got elected,

Hovik (00:14:25):

I went to my wife and said,

Hovik (00:14:26):

unfortunately,

Hovik (00:14:27):

I think we're going to lose Artsakh.

Hovik (00:14:29):

And she is the one who reminded me of that recently.

Hovik (00:14:33):

And

Hovik (00:14:34):

I've lost a lot of friends also over the last five years because many of them have

Hovik (00:14:40):

bought hook line and sinker into Pashinyan,

Hovik (00:14:42):

including even now when he's deliberately rewriting history and people are choosing

Hovik (00:14:48):

to believe that version of the rewritten history.

Asbed (00:14:52):

Let me ask you for another period of time.

Asbed (00:14:56):

We've actually had listener questions and there's one outstanding question about

Asbed (00:15:00):

why Serge Sargsyan decided to resign and give up power and let these people take the

Asbed (00:15:08):

helm instead of...

Asbed (00:15:12):

I don't know, whatever.

Asbed (00:15:13):

I don't know the right example to come up with.

Asbed (00:15:16):

But why did he do that?

Asbed (00:15:18):

And before you answer,

Asbed (00:15:19):

let me just say,

Asbed (00:15:20):

we are going to find more of an expert who has had discussions about these things

Asbed (00:15:26):

with the relevant people.

Asbed (00:15:27):

And we will have a show on that question.

Asbed (00:15:31):

But for now, what are your impressions?

Asbed (00:15:32):

Why did he just resign?

Hovik (00:15:34):

Look, a lot of supporters of Pashinyan at the time are saying that same question.

Hovik (00:15:40):

In fact, they're saying...

Hovik (00:15:42):

why didn't you just shoot us on the streets instead of allowing us to bring Pashinyan to power?

Hovik (00:15:50):

I think that's an argument that is devoid of personal responsibility because you

Hovik (00:15:59):

can say that when you were a teenager and you did something wrong and your parent,

Hovik (00:16:04):

why didn't you discipline me?

Hovik (00:16:06):

But let's look at that in reality.

Hovik (00:16:10):

As I said, there was intense euphoria at the time and hatred of anyone associated with the

Hovik (00:16:16):

foreigners.

Hovik (00:16:17):

Even if you slightly showed any disrespect to Pashinyan, you were immediately castigated.

Hovik (00:16:27):

The former representatives,

Hovik (00:16:28):

like the Republican Party,

Hovik (00:16:30):

for instance,

Hovik (00:16:32):

people went to their homes.

Hovik (00:16:34):

People were carrying caskets and having mock funerals for them in front of their

Hovik (00:16:39):

homes,

Hovik (00:16:40):

in front of their children.

Hovik (00:16:41):

I still think that there's some things we don't know.

Hovik (00:16:44):

There are a lot of things we don't know about 2018.

Hovik (00:16:48):

And we need to, I think that needs to be eventually released.

Hovik (00:16:54):

What was your personal feeling about when you heard that he resigned?

Hovik (00:16:57):

I mean, it was of disbelief.

Hovik (00:16:59):

It was of shock.

Hovik (00:17:00):

It was almost of mourning, to be honest, because I thought that, you know,

Hovik (00:17:04):

Well, let me just put it this way.

Hovik (00:17:06):

I didn't buy into that corruption stuff.

Hovik (00:17:10):

I mean, there was corruption in Armenia.

Hovik (00:17:11):

I'm not excusing any of it, but there's corruption in the US.

Hovik (00:17:16):

Just today, we looked at the...

Hovik (00:17:19):

images from the white house of all those like 24 karat gold you know that trump

Hovik (00:17:24):

posted and while the U.S. debt is in trillions of dollars so it was it was media

Hovik (00:17:30):

operations like that that painted the armenian former ruling governments as

Hovik (00:17:36):

kleptocrats as only caring for their own pocketbooks i disagree with that i think

Hovik (00:17:42):

yes many people got rich just like many people get rich in other countries but

Hovik (00:17:47):

I remember the statement from Scott Horton, who was on our show.

Hovik (00:17:52):

And I think it was earlier this year.

Hovik (00:17:55):

He said, you know, you might be and I'm quoting him,

Hovik (00:17:57):

you might be a citizen who hates your dictator.

Hovik (00:18:00):

But now but guess what?

Hovik (00:18:01):

Now you're a sock puppet for the CIA.

Hovik (00:18:03):

And that's exactly what happened.

Hovik (00:18:07):

So, yes, I mean, we should strive to keep leadership in check.

Hovik (00:18:14):

There are a lot of things you can blame Serge Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan for,

Hovik (00:18:19):

or the former,

Hovik (00:18:20):

or even,

Hovik (00:18:21):

and whatever you do,

Hovik (00:18:22):

then times two for Levon Ter-Petrosyan,

Hovik (00:18:24):

I would say.

Asbed (00:18:25):

I was also shocked.

Asbed (00:18:27):

When I heard that he resigned and basically said Pashinyan was right and I was

Asbed (00:18:31):

wrong and he resigned,

Asbed (00:18:32):

I was shocked,

Asbed (00:18:33):

but not the same shock as you.

Asbed (00:18:35):

I was shocked because I didn't expect him to resign because all the way back to

Asbed (00:18:42):

2015,

Asbed (00:18:43):

when he changed the constitution to a more parliamentary system,

Asbed (00:18:47):

I was sore about that.

Asbed (00:18:49):

And I really wanted him to go, but I felt like for the

Asbed (00:18:52):

Previous two, three years, he was rigging the elections in a way to stay in power.

Asbed (00:18:56):

And when he left, it sort of left me without footing.

Asbed (00:19:01):

I felt like, well, wait a second, what just happened?

Asbed (00:19:04):

I thought he was going to continue.

Asbed (00:19:06):

Whatever the reasons were,

Asbed (00:19:07):

he was saying that he wanted to finish the Karabakh issue before he left the scene.

Asbed (00:19:12):

No matter what it was, I was sore about him trying to stay in power in a democratic system.

Asbed (00:19:18):

And then suddenly he resigned.

Asbed (00:19:19):

So I was in shock for that.

Hovik (00:19:21):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:19:22):

The other top question is,

Hovik (00:19:26):

why didn't you just shoot us on the street to stop this from happening?

Hovik (00:19:29):

The other is,

Hovik (00:19:30):

why did Serge Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan allow themselves to be so hated so that

Hovik (00:19:34):

people rose up?

Hovik (00:19:36):

I personally didn't hate them.

Hovik (00:19:38):

I know many people who didn't at the time.

Hovik (00:19:40):

But those people that eventually were made to hate Robert Kocharyan and Sarah

Hovik (00:19:46):

Sarkisian,

Hovik (00:19:47):

or at least to tolerate the 2018 coup,

Hovik (00:19:52):

did so, I would say,

Hovik (00:19:53):

under the influence of an immense Western-funded propaganda or a forum-funded

Hovik (00:19:58):

propaganda.

Asbed (00:19:59):

Definitely a PR job.

Asbed (00:20:00):

But you know what's really important,

Asbed (00:20:01):

Hovi,

Asbed (00:20:02):

that we should bring forward in this conversation is that

Asbed (00:20:06):

This is not all just history.

Asbed (00:20:08):

I believe this issue,

Asbed (00:20:09):

this issue of Serge Sargsyan resigning,

Asbed (00:20:12):

but also so-called allowing Pashinyan to come to power,

Asbed (00:20:16):

is one of the core dividing issues between Kocharyan and Sargsyan,

Asbed (00:20:22):

and which also divides the Hayastan,

Asbed (00:20:24):

Dashinq,

Asbed (00:20:25):

and the Pativ Unem today.

Asbed (00:20:27):

They finally agreed to come together into this impeachment thing for the 2020,

Asbed (00:20:31):

well, not the 2026 elections,

Asbed (00:20:33):

but for the impeachment process.

Asbed (00:20:35):

Finally, finally.

Asbed (00:20:37):

But this has been dividing them for multiple years.

Hovik (00:20:41):

And also many people in the Kocharyan camp were on the streets in 2018.

Hovik (00:20:46):

So that's another thing.

Hovik (00:20:47):

That's the counterattack when you say, well, why did you allow Nico to come take power?

Hovik (00:20:52):

The other is,

Hovik (00:20:53):

why were you celebrating on the streets or participating in the revolution on the

Hovik (00:20:57):

streets?

Asbed (00:20:59):

Where the two presidents stood has effects all the way to 2026,

Asbed (00:21:02):

the elections that are going to come.

Asbed (00:21:05):

So history is not just on the pages.

Asbed (00:21:08):

We're living it.

Hovik (00:21:09):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:21:10):

The other component I would say before we close this topic about the revolution was

Hovik (00:21:18):

the Russian factor.

Hovik (00:21:19):

And the other frequent question we get is, well, why did the Russians allow this to happen?

Hovik (00:21:26):

And I think that's a good question.

Hovik (00:21:27):

I think that an argument could be made that

Hovik (00:21:32):

fomenting color revolutions or counter revolutions is not in the toolset of the

Hovik (00:21:37):

Russian Federation,

Hovik (00:21:39):

at least of recent times.

Hovik (00:21:41):

It is in the toolset of the Western states,

Hovik (00:21:44):

but with hundreds of thousands of people in the street,

Hovik (00:21:49):

like almost,

Hovik (00:21:52):

you know, ready to commit violence in order for Nikko to be in power,

Hovik (00:21:57):

I think it would be difficult for any country,

Hovik (00:22:00):

especially with Western support and Western media support,

Hovik (00:22:03):

it would be very difficult for a country like Russia to undo that.

Hovik (00:22:07):

I mean, it would have to be done through military...

Hovik (00:22:11):

power and it would have to be done through Serge Sargsyan and Serge, I think

Hovik (00:22:16):

it's clear that whatever he is, he is not, he chose the side of avoiding

Hovik (00:22:23):

bloodshed I think that could be said and that could be given credit to him maybe he

Hovik (00:22:28):

did that too quickly but that is um

Hovik (00:22:33):

That is what happened.

Hovik (00:22:34):

And also,

Hovik (00:22:35):

we should say that the train for the war in Ukraine,

Hovik (00:22:40):

I believe, had already started moving.

Hovik (00:22:41):

And Russia...

Hovik (00:22:45):

was trying very hard to to avoid any distractions from Ukraine and i think that um

Hovik (00:22:53):

this could have been one of those distractions so that's my theory of why russians

Hovik (00:22:59):

stood off and also the other the other uh thing is that Russia viewed sir section

Hovik (00:23:05):

as too hard-lined

Hovik (00:23:06):

on Artsakh,

Hovik (00:23:07):

even though he tried to convince the authorities of Artsakh to cede or to give up

Hovik (00:23:15):

some of the buffer areas that they had conquered during the war.

Hovik (00:23:21):

in exchange for peace.

Hovik (00:23:23):

But even that minor gesture in Armenia was not received well.

Hovik (00:23:27):

But I think the Russians were pushing Armenia to be more forthcoming in the

Hovik (00:23:35):

Karabakh negotiations.

Hovik (00:23:36):

So they were hoping that perhaps Pashinyan would

Hovik (00:23:40):

have a different take.

Asbed (00:23:41):

Under any other name,

Asbed (00:23:42):

there was the so-called Lavrov plan,

Asbed (00:23:46):

which was going to give initially a couple.

Asbed (00:23:49):

I think they were thinking about seeding the Fizuli area and then seeing how that

Asbed (00:23:53):

goes and possibly go all the way to five areas.

Asbed (00:23:56):

And then you keep Kelbajar and Lachin and, of course, Nagorno-Karabakh.

Asbed (00:24:03):

And then you go for a self-determination or something like that.

Asbed (00:24:05):

That was the plan,

Asbed (00:24:06):

but I think that Serge Sargsyan wanted,

Asbed (00:24:09):

I think there was a timing issue,

Asbed (00:24:14):

right? Aliyev wanted everything before he moved anything.

Asbed (00:24:19):

And Serge Sargsyan wanted to make sure that the referendum was agreed to and there

Asbed (00:24:23):

was a date or something,

Asbed (00:24:24):

whatever it was.

Asbed (00:24:25):

I don't remember all the details at this moment.

Asbed (00:24:28):

So when Pashinyan took control,

Asbed (00:24:30):

the OSCE Minsk Group already had a plan,

Asbed (00:24:33):

I think,

Asbed (00:24:34):

that they had made and he denied this.

Asbed (00:24:37):

Is this not true?

Hovik (00:24:40):

Yeah, so it's very interesting because he participated in OSCE Minsk Group fora on

Hovik (00:24:48):

Karabakh or Artsakh,

Hovik (00:24:50):

he and his team said that there were floating ideas,

Hovik (00:24:53):

it was good to talk,

Hovik (00:24:55):

but they actually denied that the OSCE Minsk group presented a very detailed peace

Hovik (00:25:04):

plan to Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:25:08):

In fact, this plan, I believe, was presented in 2019.

Asbed (00:25:13):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:25:14):

And blatantly,

Hovik (00:25:16):

in front of cameras,

Hovik (00:25:17):

they said there is no plan that is being considered right now until the point when

Hovik (00:25:23):

the Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group actually went public and said,

Hovik (00:25:28):

yes, there is a plan.

Hovik (00:25:29):

Here's, you know, we delivered it and so forth and so on.

Hovik (00:25:33):

But Pashinyan at the time was saying,

Hovik (00:25:36):

we're going to start from our point,

Hovik (00:25:38):

point zero,

Hovik (00:25:40):

and Artsakh representatives must have a seat at the table.

Hovik (00:25:44):

I mean,

Hovik (00:25:45):

effectively, Aliyev would reject this,

Hovik (00:25:47):

and effectively,

Hovik (00:25:48):

this meant a breakup in negotiations.

Hovik (00:25:52):

And before anyone says, well, Artsakh was removed from negotiations by Kocharyan,

Hovik (00:26:01):

That's a tangent,

Hovik (00:26:02):

but we can say that,

Hovik (00:26:03):

you know,

Hovik (00:26:04):

Libaridian,

Hovik (00:26:05):

even prior to Kocharyan coming to power,

Hovik (00:26:07):

had effectively implemented this.

Hovik (00:26:09):

The Azatutyun had an interesting story about newly disclosed documents about this.

Hovik (00:26:15):

But anyway,

Hovik (00:26:16):

Pashinyan was saying,

Hovik (00:26:17):

you know, the Artsakh authorities must come into the negotiations.

Hovik (00:26:20):

I'm not from Artsakh, so I can't negotiate on their behalf.

Hovik (00:26:24):

And how ironic that years later, he effectively gave up Artsakh.

Hovik (00:26:30):

So on the one hand, they effectively stalled the OSC Minsk group discussions.

Hovik (00:26:37):

And on the other hand, Pashinyan and Aliyev

Hovik (00:26:41):

created a direct communication channel between themselves and started negotiating

Hovik (00:26:45):

secretly with their counterparts,

Hovik (00:26:50):

bypassing the OSCE Minsk Group.

Hovik (00:26:52):

And in fact, there are reports that even Arthur Vanetsyan participated in this bypassing sealed

Hovik (00:26:57):

envelopes between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:27:01):

He claims he didn't know the contents of those envelopes.

Asbed (00:27:04):

But he was a messenger, you're saying?

Hovik (00:27:06):

Yeah, essentially,

Hovik (00:27:07):

Arthur Vanetsyan,

Hovik (00:27:08):

who today is opposition,

Hovik (00:27:09):

I have a lot of,

Hovik (00:27:12):

well,

Hovik (00:27:13):

let me just put it,

Hovik (00:27:14):

he claims he's opposition today,

Hovik (00:27:16):

at the time said he had no idea what was in the contents of those envelopes,

Hovik (00:27:20):

and he was acting just like a messenger in his job as the head of the National

Hovik (00:27:23):

Security Service.

Hovik (00:27:25):

I think there are a lot of questions that need to be answered for his time at the

Hovik (00:27:29):

NSS during that period as well,

Hovik (00:27:31):

including arrests of Kocharyan and so forth.

Hovik (00:27:33):

And one puzzling event that happened also between this period between 2018 and the

Hovik (00:27:42):

beginning of the war was that,

Hovik (00:27:43):

as I said,

Hovik (00:27:44):

Pashinyan grew more militaristic.

Hovik (00:27:46):

on anything related to Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:27:51):

I think it was in 2020,

Hovik (00:27:53):

in the spring,

Hovik (00:27:54):

when Pashinyan said,

Hovik (00:27:57):

well, we need to take another look at the Treaty of Sevre,

Hovik (00:28:01):

something like that.

Hovik (00:28:02):

It was a very provocative statement by Pashinyan.

Hovik (00:28:07):

And the Treaty of Sevre,

Hovik (00:28:08):

for those who don't know,

Hovik (00:28:11):

is a treaty that essentially gave Western Armenia to Armenians.

Hovik (00:28:16):

And it was drawn by Woodrow Wilson.

Hovik (00:28:18):

It never became a reality because the US Congress torpedoed it.

Hovik (00:28:31):

But eventually the US would have a mandate over Armenia.

Hovik (00:28:35):

And if you want any Turk to be extremely annoyed, only one thing you can say is Treaty of Sevre.

Hovik (00:28:41):

And you might see them going into spasms and shocks and so forth.

Hovik (00:28:45):

So it's a very sensitive topic for Turks.

Hovik (00:28:49):

And an Armenian official in his official capacity talking about Treaty of Sevre in

Hovik (00:28:56):

such a way was,

Hovik (00:28:58):

you know,

Hovik (00:28:59):

I think definitely would be.

Hovik (00:29:01):

received very poorly by Turks.

Asbed (00:29:06):

It's poor diplomacy.

Asbed (00:29:08):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:29:10):

I mean, why would you raise that issue at a time when you can do absolutely nothing about it?

Hovik (00:29:15):

So should we talk about this Dushanbe elevator incident real quick?

Hovik (00:29:19):

Real quick.

Hovik (00:29:20):

Okay,

Hovik (00:29:21):

so in that process where Parshinyan and Aliyev were communicating secretly,

Hovik (00:29:26):

in 2018, both of them went to Dushanbe for a CIS summit,

Hovik (00:29:32):

Commonwealth of Independent States,

Hovik (00:29:34):

and they had an informal meeting.

Hovik (00:29:35):

The only evidence we have is of them exiting the elevator at the same time.

Hovik (00:29:42):

It was basically the first,

Hovik (00:29:44):

I believe,

Hovik (00:29:45):

private meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev with no one else present except his

Hovik (00:29:49):

bodyguard from the National Security Service,

Hovik (00:29:51):

who later died.

Hovik (00:29:53):

Some say under suspicious circumstances.

Hovik (00:29:55):

The official story was he got a heart attack.

Hovik (00:29:58):

But what's interesting is that... Was he a young man, Hovik?

Hovik (00:30:04):

I think he was in his 50s, maybe.

Hovik (00:30:09):

So anyway,

Hovik (00:30:10):

that meeting was the topic of controversies in Armenia because press started asking

Hovik (00:30:14):

about it.

Hovik (00:30:15):

And right before the war started, Hakim Oz, an Azerbaijani newspaper, said that...

Hovik (00:30:22):

Pashinyan,

Hovik (00:30:23):

during that meeting,

Hovik (00:30:24):

Pashinyan had asked Aliyev not to shoot on the border and to keep the relative

Hovik (00:30:29):

peace so that Pashinyan could consolidate his own power internally.

Hovik (00:30:35):

And during that time, Pashinyan did consolidate his power.

Hovik (00:30:38):

His party won the elections in the parliament in 2018.

Hovik (00:30:44):

He actively worked on replacing judges in the Supreme Court.

Hovik (00:30:48):

They appointed new judges, and everywhere they replaced...

Hovik (00:30:51):

apparatchiks with their own people.

Hovik (00:30:54):

And shortly before the war started,

Hovik (00:30:56):

Pashinyan made this threat on public TV saying that if I ever release all the stuff

Hovik (00:31:01):

that we talk about confidentially,

Hovik (00:31:04):

he was very annoyed that this was written in Azeri Press,

Hovik (00:31:06):

but he said if I ever release what we talked about confidentially,

Hovik (00:31:10):

then there will be a huge political earthquake in Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:31:14):

and I'm not sure if Aliyev would survive or something like that.

Hovik (00:31:18):

I'm paraphrasing.

Hovik (00:31:20):

But that promise was never kept.

Hovik (00:31:22):

If this was going to cause a huge political earthquake in Armenia,

Hovik (00:31:25):

in Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:31:26):

then why didn't he release that information?

Hovik (00:31:29):

And of course, he denies it.

Hovik (00:31:31):

He says, actually, it was Aliyev who begged him...

Hovik (00:31:36):

Yes, that's funny, right?

Hovik (00:31:37):

It was Aliyev who begged him to not export the Armenian revolution to Baku.

Hovik (00:31:43):

So that was very funny, I thought.

Hovik (00:31:46):

Aliyev was shaking in his boots, worried about... Anyway.

Asbed (00:31:51):

Incidentally,

Asbed (00:31:53):

let me also mention that earlier this year in Abu Dhabi,

Asbed (00:31:59):

prior to all this trip hoopla,

Asbed (00:32:01):

Pashinyan and Aliyev had a five-hour meeting

Asbed (00:32:04):

Under similar circumstances where there was absolutely nobody between them.

Hovik (00:32:08):

Yeah. And then so we're now into the summer of 2020.

Hovik (00:32:13):

And on the day that we recorded our first podcast episode, July 12th.

Asbed (00:32:17):

2020.

Hovik (00:32:17):

2020.

Hovik (00:32:18):

The Tavush battles started.

Hovik (00:32:19):

It was a battle for a single position.

Hovik (00:32:26):

for a single freaking position.

Hovik (00:32:28):

We don't know who initiated it, but it seems that it might have been even the Armenian forces.

Hovik (00:32:34):

They tried to occupy one position on the border.

Hovik (00:32:37):

On the Azeri side, there are reports of a general being killed in the fighting, right?

Hovik (00:32:45):

And it was at this time that Turkish officials vowed support for Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:32:51):

Pakistan got involved, and it seemed like

Hovik (00:32:56):

We were now locked into the war trajectory at that time.

Asbed (00:33:03):

It seemed like it was the trigger to a certain set of events.

Hovik (00:33:07):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:33:09):

And in fact, even when Turkey said,

Hovik (00:33:10):

we're going to spill blood with you,

Hovik (00:33:13):

with our Azerbaijani brethren fighting the Armenians,

Hovik (00:33:18):

civil contract officials were...

Hovik (00:33:21):

gaslighting Armenians, saying that nothing like that is going to happen.

Hovik (00:33:26):

One famous civil contract official,

Hovik (00:33:28):

Lilith Makuns,

Hovik (00:33:29):

who later became an ambassador to the US for her great wisdom,

Hovik (00:33:33):

I guess,

Hovik (00:33:34):

she said on record that Turkey is not going to get involved.

Hovik (00:33:39):

And every day, civil contract members were saying...

Hovik (00:33:44):

You know, I woke up today and Turkey still hasn't invaded Armenia.

Hovik (00:33:51):

So they were making fun of this very serious circumstance.

Asbed (00:33:58):

Well, they awarded something that hadn't been done for a long time.

Asbed (00:34:03):

They awarded a whole bunch of soldiers the Medal of Honor.

Hovik (00:34:08):

Yeah, 70-something medals.

Hovik (00:34:13):

I mean, those were given in the first war, and they were given very conservatively.

Hovik (00:34:21):

And he held a ceremony in Sardarabad, facing the Sardarabad monument.

Hovik (00:34:29):

You should know that it's basically the battle where Armenians had a definitive

Hovik (00:34:34):

victory against Turks in 1918.

Hovik (00:34:37):

and it faces turkey so he while facing turkey said these you know militaristic

Hovik (00:34:43):

things about armenian power and so forth and another thing that happened um i mean

Hovik (00:34:49):

from the military perspective as pashinyan was rattling the saber against uh turkey

Hovik (00:34:56):

and Azerbaijan he was also changing the armenian military defense acquisition plans

Hovik (00:35:03):

and strategy

Hovik (00:35:06):

During the previous plan,

Hovik (00:35:08):

which was instituted at the time by Serge Sargsyan,

Hovik (00:35:10):

Armenia was supposed to acquire a lot of air defense equipment,

Hovik (00:35:14):

a lot of thousands of drones,

Hovik (00:35:18):

and so forth,

Hovik (00:35:20):

and tore air defense systems.

Hovik (00:35:22):

And all this was, according to the opposition, all this was

Hovik (00:35:27):

rejected and instead Pashinyan essentially decided to buy four Su-30 military aircraft.

Asbed (00:35:35):

Hey, do you remember that he had that GoPro selfie of himself in the cockpit of one of

Asbed (00:35:40):

the Su-30s?

Hovik (00:35:42):

For $130 million.

Asbed (00:35:44):

That was $130 million selfie.

Hovik (00:35:46):

Exactly.

Asbed (00:35:48):

Listen, when I become president of Armenia, he's paying that back.

Asbed (00:35:52):

I'm making him pay that money back.

Asbed (00:35:55):

I mean, you're saying that we're not military experts,

Asbed (00:35:57):

but just any common Joe would know that that was the wrong thing to do.

Hovik (00:36:04):

I mean, Armenia.

Hovik (00:36:05):

So, yeah, I mean,

Hovik (00:36:06):

we can go into this, but Armenia is so small that having it's even questionable that having an air force

Hovik (00:36:11):

that is capable of.

Hovik (00:36:14):

hiding those planes in the case of a first strike and things like that.

Asbed (00:36:20):

Those airplanes never took to the air.

Asbed (00:36:22):

They didn't even get off the ground.

Hovik (00:36:24):

And in fact, they became a liability.

Hovik (00:36:25):

For instance,

Hovik (00:36:26):

during the war,

Hovik (00:36:27):

Armenia had to organize air defense assets around these airplanes so that the

Hovik (00:36:33):

airplanes wouldn't be bombed in their hangars.

Hovik (00:36:35):

Anyway, it's ridiculous.

Hovik (00:36:37):

It was comical, but it made for a great selfie.

Hovik (00:36:40):

Now we come to September...

Hovik (00:36:45):

uh 27 2020 uh and and the war began so the war began with a large-scale blitzkrieg

Hovik (00:36:54):

and apparently a very successful attack against Armenian air defense assets this is

Hovik (00:36:59):

my pet topic which i think is difficult to prove and even if you're like a very

Hovik (00:37:05):

highly placed journalist

Hovik (00:37:07):

But it was an attack that was so precise and so successful that something changed.

Hovik (00:37:15):

Because for 30 years, Armenia was able to defend against threats like this.

Hovik (00:37:21):

But it reeked of Azerbaijan having...

Hovik (00:37:25):

very good ISR capability.

Hovik (00:37:28):

They build intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.

Hovik (00:37:31):

Being able to identify all of the locations of the Armenian air defenses and, you know,

Hovik (00:37:39):

We should assume that Armenia has a proper professional military, right?

Hovik (00:37:42):

They would have decoys, they would have moved these air defense assets, the mobile ones around.

Hovik (00:37:49):

So it would be very difficult to have such a huge success.

Hovik (00:37:55):

And this is where I would say,

Hovik (00:37:57):

for instance,

Hovik (00:37:58):

we know that Turkey was definitely involved and Turkey has multiple satellites.

Hovik (00:38:02):

I think they have tens of satellites.

Hovik (00:38:04):

But, you know,

Hovik (00:38:05):

we've talked to guests in the podcast,

Hovik (00:38:08):

for instance,

Hovik (00:38:10):

Ret. Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwiatkowsky,

Hovik (00:38:14):

who was also trying to make an educated guess whether NATO ISR could or would have

Hovik (00:38:19):

been involved in this.

Hovik (00:38:20):

And,

Hovik (00:38:21):

you know, our conclusion that we came from those interviews was that there will be no way to

Hovik (00:38:27):

prevent NATO ISR from being used.

Hovik (00:38:30):

And Turkey, as a member of NATO, would have access to that information.

Asbed (00:38:34):

Hovik, you've pursued that line of thought extensively.

Asbed (00:38:39):

It's clear that there was NATO ISR involved,

Asbed (00:38:42):

but what about the possibility of insider information having been given?

Asbed (00:38:48):

We've never thought about that.

Asbed (00:38:49):

We've never pursued that.

Asbed (00:38:50):

We don't have evidence, but that's also a possibility.

Hovik (00:38:53):

That is possible.

Hovik (00:38:54):

And I say, from my discussions, it was a very

Hovik (00:38:58):

capable and knowledgeable people, that is a significant theory.

Hovik (00:39:04):

People actually have grounds to believe this.

Hovik (00:39:07):

Obviously,

Hovik (00:39:09):

I'm not in a position to reveal more,

Hovik (00:39:12):

but I think that stuff will only come out when this regime is removed eventually.

Hovik (00:39:20):

And there's a real war commission.

Hovik (00:39:23):

And they're questioned as criminals, as co-conspirators.

Hovik (00:39:28):

Because if you look at from the narrative of this Western,

Hovik (00:39:32):

you know, flipping,

Hovik (00:39:33):

losing Artsakh and then flipping Armenia from,

Hovik (00:39:36):

you know,

Hovik (00:39:38):

Russia to the West,

Hovik (00:39:40):

then from that perspective,

Hovik (00:39:42):

if those forces that were involved,

Hovik (00:39:45):

you know, then it's possible that also we had internal...

Hovik (00:39:50):

saboteurs, internal traitors, essentially, who actually physically revealed those locations.

Hovik (00:39:57):

So, of course,

Hovik (00:39:58):

we don't want to go into the details of the war,

Hovik (00:40:02):

but we should mention a few facts.

Hovik (00:40:06):

One was the immense propaganda that Armenians were being subjected to, right?

Hovik (00:40:13):

We all remember those, you know, what was it?

Asbed (00:40:18):

Western-supported propaganda.

Hovik (00:40:20):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:40:21):

Yeah. Every day there were losses on the battlefield and the Armenian public was being

Hovik (00:40:27):

fed lies that, hey,

Hovik (00:40:28):

those are not losses. We got things under control.

Hovik (00:40:32):

I remember even

Hovik (00:40:33):

on November 9 or even November 8,

Hovik (00:40:37):

a few days before the peace treaty was signed,

Hovik (00:40:42):

and it was clear that Azerbaijanis were in control of Shushi.

Hovik (00:40:47):

Nikol Pashinyan was denying that and saying the fights around Shushi are still happening.

Hovik (00:40:54):

That was a whole psychological gaslighting that I think many Armenians are still

Hovik (00:41:00):

not recovered from.

Hovik (00:41:01):

So why did Pashinyan do this?

Hovik (00:41:02):

Was he just such a fool, such an incompetent idiot that he just fumbled through this war?

Hovik (00:41:13):

uh like any reasonable person will say okay let's say you you were incompetent

Hovik (00:41:17):

until the start of the war okay you now have a war and you're losing let's say and

Hovik (00:41:24):

we don't even know if these losses were legitimate or not but you're losing why

Hovik (00:41:30):

don't you stop the losses as soon as possible and armenia had multiple he was

Asbed (00:41:35):

warned and he was told by his own general staff yeah

Asbed (00:41:39):

To find a diplomatic solution and stop the war immediately.

Hovik (00:41:44):

And what was his response?

Hovik (00:41:48):

It was,

Hovik (00:41:49):

yes, I could have stopped the war earlier,

Hovik (00:41:51):

except that we would have the same results and I would be called a traitor.

Hovik (00:41:55):

Right.

Asbed (00:41:56):

So it was okay to lose 5,000 men just for the possibility that he will not be called a traitor.

Hovik (00:42:04):

And of course, he's not being called a traitor today.

Asbed (00:42:09):

Complete failure of a human being.

Asbed (00:42:12):

And what's their answer when we say 5,000 people were killed?

Asbed (00:42:16):

They go, it wasn't 5,000 people.

Asbed (00:42:18):

It was 3,800 something, 3,816 people, 3,872 people.

Asbed (00:42:19):

I know those numbers.

Asbed (00:42:20):

We know those numbers. And I know that it's at least 5,000.

Asbed (00:42:21):

And there are 10,000 more injured.

Asbed (00:42:22):

And there are at least 15,000 injured families in Armenia.

Hovik (00:42:34):

You know, what's worse than that is that they know exactly the people, everyone who died.

Hovik (00:42:40):

Of course, they have to know that because they pay compensation for the loss or injury.

Hovik (00:42:47):

And they won't release, there's no official list until today,

Hovik (00:42:52):

of everyone who died.

Asbed (00:42:53):

It's incomprehensible.

Asbed (00:42:54):

Why would they not do that?

Asbed (00:42:56):

Why would they not release the list?

Hovik (00:42:58):

Because I believe the reason they're not releasing it is because you would know the

Hovik (00:43:01):

time, the date and location of all those deaths.

Hovik (00:43:06):

And I think that would spell a story that they don't want revealed.

Hovik (00:43:12):

That's my guess.

Hovik (00:43:13):

But for a government that keeps claiming that they honor the victims,

Hovik (00:43:21):

the minimum honor would be to officially release the names of the dead and

Hovik (00:43:26):

officially mourn them.

Hovik (00:43:28):

Armenia didn't have a day of mourning

Hovik (00:43:31):

You know,

Hovik (00:43:32):

you have a flood somewhere in the country and four people get swept up in the flood

Hovik (00:43:36):

and the whole country is in three days of mourning,

Hovik (00:43:39):

you know, but in Armenia,

Hovik (00:43:41):

5000 people died.

Hovik (00:43:42):

And even the flag still was at high mass.

Asbed (00:43:49):

Well, when I become president of Armenia, I'm releasing that list.

Asbed (00:43:53):

It'll be my first first thing I do.

Hovik (00:43:56):

Another important thing during the war, I think it's worth mentioning because it's

Hovik (00:44:02):

Public knowledge, this is not something that we're guessing.

Hovik (00:44:04):

Pashinyan did not put the country on a full war footing, right?

Hovik (00:44:10):

They didn't take over factories, they didn't repurpose, tell people.

Hovik (00:44:16):

In Azerbaijan, the government made people give up their own pickup trucks to be used in the war.

Hovik (00:44:22):

Pashinyan didn't do that, at least on a massive scale.

Hovik (00:44:27):

And we know that on the fourth day,

Hovik (00:44:30):

of the war uh so somewhere i guess around October 1st um you know he or second he

Hovik (00:44:38):

called off the massive mobilization efforts and from that point forward there were

Hovik (00:44:44):

no mobilization of capable fighting men into the army themselves instead he he

Hovik (00:44:51):

asked people to volunteer

Hovik (00:44:54):

create makeshift squads,

Hovik (00:44:56):

elect their own commander in that squad,

Hovik (00:44:59):

go get training and fight in Artsakh as volunteers.

Hovik (00:45:05):

Only the army corps, Armenia had five army corps at the time,

Hovik (00:45:10):

One of them was already in a cannibalized state because it was not fully staffed.

Hovik (00:45:17):

But the main one,

Hovik (00:45:20):

there's only one army corps that was part of defense of Artsakh,

Hovik (00:45:24):

and it was the Artsakh Defense Army.

Hovik (00:45:26):

And that was the only army that was fighting in Artsakh.

Hovik (00:45:32):

The rest of the Armenian military was not engaged.

Hovik (00:45:37):

And there are countless testimonies.

Hovik (00:45:40):

I know many people personally who volunteered and signed up to volunteer to go to Artsakh.

Hovik (00:45:45):

And even then they were not called up.

Hovik (00:45:47):

Every day they kept checking and every day they were told, you know, not yet.

Hovik (00:45:50):

So Pashinyan and their folks also blame Russia.

Hovik (00:45:59):

I think it was clear even to the most uninitiated person that Russia would not

Hovik (00:46:08):

fight on behalf of Armenia in Artsakh.

Hovik (00:46:11):

Russia now tried to wiggle its way out of the situation,

Hovik (00:46:14):

saying that the war is happening on the soil of Karabakh,

Hovik (00:46:20):

and that's a disputed territory at the time.

Hovik (00:46:22):

So we're not going to get involved.

Hovik (00:46:26):

And that has been a position that has been stated earlier by Russian authorities.

Asbed (00:46:31):

Well, Russia has its own set of responsibilities and needs to be accountable for them

Asbed (00:46:37):

towards Artsakh.

Asbed (00:46:38):

But as they have said, they can't be more Armenian than Armenians themselves.

Asbed (00:46:44):

And Pashinyan simply didn't stand up to defend Armenian interests.

Asbed (00:46:49):

Others can help us stand, but Pashinyan expects other people to come and fight our wars.

Asbed (00:46:55):

It's the same thing.

Asbed (00:46:56):

It's the same propagandistic thing.

Asbed (00:46:59):

Lack of accountability on their part.

Asbed (00:47:02):

So sometimes when you say,

Asbed (00:47:03):

well, we shouldn't have given up Artsakh and they go,

Asbed (00:47:05):

well, if you think that,

Asbed (00:47:06):

then why don't you come here and fight for yourself?

Asbed (00:47:10):

It's a lack of ownership of your own country that just reeks of propaganda.

Hovik (00:47:17):

we're not absolving Russia because i think at an emotional level uh and also at a

Hovik (00:47:23):

level of as a superpower uh Russia's reputation suffered a lot as part of the um

Hovik (00:47:30):

you know war in our talk and whether they could have done anything about it uh and

Hovik (00:47:38):

they didn't

Hovik (00:47:40):

Or didn't want to.

Hovik (00:47:43):

Or didn't want to.

Hovik (00:47:45):

We'll know sometime in the future.

Hovik (00:47:47):

But regardless, this essentially said that some allies of Russia are expendable.

Hovik (00:47:54):

And that was the effective result of the war in Artsakh.

Hovik (00:47:59):

You know what?

Hovik (00:48:00):

I think that this theory also needs to have a right to exist.

Hovik (00:48:07):

If Russia knew that Pashinyan was intent on giving away Artsakh,

Hovik (00:48:13):

then could it do anything to prevent that from happening?

Hovik (00:48:17):

Maybe, I'm not sure.

Hovik (00:48:18):

But we've asked numerous people on our show whether Artsakh was a trap for Russia.

Hovik (00:48:29):

as in the prelude to the war in Ukraine.

Hovik (00:48:33):

And I think that also has a right to exist because going back to the 2019 Rand

Hovik (00:48:38):

Report,

Hovik (00:48:39):

that's exactly what is spelled out in there.

Asbed (00:48:42):

Okay, so it's not extremely clear to me because I haven't looked at all of the timings,

Asbed (00:48:47):

but Armenia was late in applying to the CSTO and never applied to the bilateral

Asbed (00:48:53):

alliance with Russia to come and help,

Asbed (00:48:55):

as far as I know.

Asbed (00:48:57):

Yeah, I mean, you could say that.

Asbed (00:48:59):

I don't know. So Russia said they needed to be asked,

Asbed (00:49:02):

but that request did not come or at least didn't come on time.

Hovik (00:49:07):

So I think if Russia really wanted to get its hands dirty in Artsakh during the war.

Hovik (00:49:12):

It could have.

Hovik (00:49:13):

It could have earlier.

Hovik (00:49:14):

But I think Russians focused a lot on trying to institute a ceasefire.

Hovik (00:49:21):

There were three ceasefire opportunities prior to November 910.

Hovik (00:49:27):

One came from the Russians.

Hovik (00:49:28):

One, I believe, was U.S.

Hovik (00:49:30):

and the other one with the French.

Hovik (00:49:32):

I forget which one was the third one.

Hovik (00:49:34):

But at least two of them were rejected by Pashinyan.

Asbed (00:49:38):

And Hovig,

Asbed (00:49:39):

the November 10 agreement,

Asbed (00:49:41):

trilaterally signed,

Asbed (00:49:42):

did say everybody stands exactly where they are.

Asbed (00:49:45):

That's what the Russians signed.

Asbed (00:49:47):

That's what Armenia and Azerbaijan signed.

Asbed (00:49:49):

But that changed almost immediately because of backroom dealings between Pashinyan

Asbed (00:49:55):

and Aliyev,

Asbed (00:49:56):

promises that were made behind the back of the Armenian people.

Hovik (00:50:00):

Yeah, so I think you're right.

Asbed (00:50:02):

I wonder if it was also made behind the back of Putin, but I just have no idea about that.

Hovik (00:50:08):

Yeah,

Hovik (00:50:10):

I think that also could be because Azerbaijan came forward tens of kilometers and

Hovik (00:50:17):

Armenia essentially withdrew from areas so that now Azerbaijani forces are in

Hovik (00:50:23):

Sunni,

Hovik (00:50:24):

are occupying various strategic positions.

Hovik (00:50:29):

And even like the Goris-Kapan Highway,

Hovik (00:50:32):

which is a critical artery for Army and North-South communication,

Hovik (00:50:35):

was essentially given up to the Azeris for no reason whatsoever that I can think

Hovik (00:50:40):

of.

Hovik (00:50:41):

And eventually made any sort of future,

Hovik (00:50:44):

I think it made any future ability to coordinate logistics very difficult for

Hovik (00:50:50):

military and non-military purposes.

Hovik (00:50:53):

But going back to the Russian involvement,

Hovik (00:50:56):

we know that there was this helicopter incident where Azerbaijan shot down a

Hovik (00:51:01):

Russian helicopter.

Asbed (00:51:04):

Inside Armenia from the Nachichevan border.

Hovik (00:51:07):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:51:10):

And shortly after that, a ceasefire was instituted.

Hovik (00:51:14):

And I believe that Russians truly believe that that was the best deal they could

Hovik (00:51:18):

get at the time,

Hovik (00:51:19):

which was a five-year stint being peacekeepers in Artsakh and keeping Artsakh or

Hovik (00:51:26):

Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian.

Hovik (00:51:28):

So maybe they saw that as a potential way to delay anything in Artsakh.

Asbed (00:51:33):

It was a kick-the-can-down-the-alley kind of a deal.

Hovik (00:51:36):

And in fact, the five-year timeline, the five-year expiration would be

Hovik (00:51:41):

November of this year.

Hovik (00:51:43):

Two months.

Hovik (00:51:45):

But things happened at a much more aggressive phase and even the peacekeeping

Hovik (00:51:50):

effort was disbanded because of what happened in 2023.

Asbed (00:51:55):

In Prague, basically, what was it?

Asbed (00:51:57):

October 2022, I think, right?

Hovik (00:51:59):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:52:00):

After the war, after the war, is the rest history?

Hovik (00:52:04):

Were Armenia's subsequent losses the result of

Hovik (00:52:09):

of the war, the direct result of the war.

Hovik (00:52:12):

What are your thoughts on this hospice?

Asbed (00:52:14):

If you mean a consequence of the kind of series of diplomatic failures that it

Asbed (00:52:20):

unleashed,

Asbed (00:52:21):

yes, absolutely.

Asbed (00:52:23):

The activities that led to Prague in 2022, you remember

Asbed (00:52:31):

the whole "lower the bar on Artsakh's independence" thing that Charles Michel was championing.

Asbed (00:52:37):

So I think there was a lot of pressure on Pashinyan from the EU and from the US to

Asbed (00:52:43):

basically give up on Artsakh.

Asbed (00:52:45):

And seeing that kind of pressure,

Asbed (00:52:47):

I believe that Aliyev basically had no reason why he wouldn't take further

Asbed (00:52:52):

advantage.

Asbed (00:52:53):

So he took further advantage of every opportunity.

Asbed (00:52:57):

If he got into Armenia with his army,

Asbed (00:53:00):

who would stop him?

Asbed (00:53:01):

And then if he would invade 200 square kilometers, who would stop him?

Asbed (00:53:06):

And all of these things were going to become a bargaining chip.

Asbed (00:53:08):

And after the war,

Asbed (00:53:10):

Point one,

Asbed (00:53:11):

I believe, of the trilateral agreement of November 2020 said,

Asbed (00:53:15):

an all-for-all exchange of prisoners of war.

Asbed (00:53:17):

And Pashinyan put everybody on a plane and shipped them back to Baku.

Asbed (00:53:24):

No escrow, no nothing.

Asbed (00:53:26):

And if you were Aliyev, what would you do?

Asbed (00:53:28):

You go, well, I've got everything I need.

Asbed (00:53:30):

I have all these chips in my hand.

Asbed (00:53:32):

I'm not releasing anyone.

Asbed (00:53:33):

Okay.

Asbed (00:53:35):

So basically,

Asbed (00:53:36):

I think Pashinyan's team was completely taken off guard by the fact that the enemy

Asbed (00:53:45):

is not a cooperating enemy.

Asbed (00:53:46):

It's a real enemy.

Asbed (00:53:48):

The war has not stopped for them and they're going to take advantage.

Asbed (00:53:50):

So eventually it led to the ethnic cleansing, as we saw, step by step.

Hovik (00:53:55):

Let me present an alternative or maybe slightly different view,

Hovik (00:53:59):

which is that we would actually thank...

Hovik (00:54:04):

the Lord in heaven to have the November 10 treaty.

Hovik (00:54:08):

Why didn't it hold?

Hovik (00:54:09):

Like there were several different steps.

Hovik (00:54:11):

You mentioned one of them,

Hovik (00:54:12):

which was the surprise verbal agreement under which Armenia withdrew back and

Hovik (00:54:18):

surrendered territory,

Hovik (00:54:20):

including the Goris-Kapan on highway.

Asbed (00:54:22):

You said all the way back to 2018,

Asbed (00:54:24):

there were backroom dealings between Yerevan and Baku,

Asbed (00:54:27):

even through people like Vanetsyan and stuff like that.

Asbed (00:54:30):

Why would we think that those things would be stopped?

Hovik (00:54:33):

Yeah, exactly.

Asbed (00:54:34):

Complete backroom deals that were going on unbeknownst to at least Armenians.

Hovik (00:54:41):

Exactly.

Hovik (00:54:42):

So if you were brought to Armenia to accomplish a certain task,

Hovik (00:54:46):

to move,

Hovik (00:54:47):

or even if you,

Hovik (00:54:48):

let's say you strongly believe that Armenia must move away from Russia's orbit,

Hovik (00:54:53):

and the only way to do that would be to sacrifice Artsakh by traders in Armenia,

Hovik (00:55:00):

then

Hovik (00:55:02):

I think the peacekeepers in Artsakh were still a challenge.

Hovik (00:55:08):

So then multiple different incidents happened throughout the subsequent years after

Hovik (00:55:16):

2020 that had no explanation.

Hovik (00:55:19):

In fact, Pashinyan had said that he signed the ceasefire

Hovik (00:55:25):

and the capitulation of November uh 2020 in order to hold sovereignty over its

Hovik (00:55:31):

own land so he said okay you got artsakh uh you got Karabakh now i have sovereignty

Hovik (00:55:39):

over armenia

Hovik (00:55:41):

That means that you defend sovereignty, the sovereignty of your own land.

Hovik (00:55:44):

But we have seen,

Hovik (00:55:45):

even then,

Hovik (00:55:46):

Azerbaijan essentially preventing Armenia from exercising sovereignty,

Hovik (00:55:50):

not just with this trip corridor,

Hovik (00:55:52):

but also,

Hovik (00:55:53):

for instance,

Hovik (00:55:54):

Armenia wanted to build a factory in...

Hovik (00:55:57):

Yaraskh.

Hovik (00:55:59):

And Azerbaijan kept shooting at that factory to the point that the Armenian

Hovik (00:56:03):

government paid the factory owner millions of dollars to relocate the factory

Hovik (00:56:07):

somewhere else.

Hovik (00:56:09):

Azerbaijanis started shooting at the Sotk mine, which is fully under Armenian territory.

Hovik (00:56:16):

To the point that now that mine is effectively closed and can't be used because

Hovik (00:56:20):

other soldiers keep shooting.

Hovik (00:56:24):

So obviously that explanation for whatever... Welcome to Pashinyan sovereignty.

Hovik (00:56:31):

Yeah, that is Pashinyan's version of sovereignty.

Hovik (00:56:34):

And as predicted, again, I can't emphasize this enough.

Hovik (00:56:39):

Go ahead and read that RAND Corporation report.

Hovik (00:56:41):

It's called Extending Russia.

Hovik (00:56:43):

to see how the West predicted, and I would say maybe even... Planned.

Hovik (00:56:50):

Yes, enticed and planned and executed the changing,

Hovik (00:56:54):

the flipping of Armenia from Russia to the West.

Asbed (00:56:57):

We'll put the link in the show notes.

Asbed (00:56:59):

It'll be in podcasts.groong.org / episode-number, whatever episode this is going to be.

Hovik (00:57:06):

So let me just state a few more things and then we will fast forward to today.

Hovik (00:57:11):

The Armenian government has not engaged in an honest effort to investigate the war.

Hovik (00:57:18):

The parliamentary committee thing run by Coach Aidan looks only aspects that are

Hovik (00:57:23):

under a subset,

Hovik (00:57:26):

a very tight scope of what happened,

Hovik (00:57:28):

the actions of the military,

Hovik (00:57:30):

but without looking at the political responsibility,

Hovik (00:57:32):

the political leadership,

Hovik (00:57:34):

And it doesn't even, that committee even doesn't have the remit.

Hovik (00:57:38):

So we will have no

Hovik (00:57:41):

independent or even comprehensive investigation of why the Armenian state lost the

Hovik (00:57:48):

Artsakh War or the Karabakh War in 2020.

Hovik (00:57:51):

Lastly,

Hovik (00:57:52):

I mean, everyone today is talking about peace,

Hovik (00:57:55):

but I haven't seen an example in history where an undignified peace was forced onto

Hovik (00:58:03):

people in a persistent way and it held.

Hovik (00:58:07):

There are examples when it led to future wars.

Hovik (00:58:11):

There are examples where it led to genocide, but not peace, not true genuine peace.

Hovik (00:58:20):

In fact, the Armenian government is memory-holding the history of the war,

Hovik (00:58:24):

is trying to create new...

Hovik (00:58:28):

holidays, Remembrance Day to sort of mask other, you know, holidays that existed before.

Hovik (00:58:36):

So latest incident is this Remembrance Day on January 27th, one day before Army Day.

Hovik (00:58:43):

So instead of trying to celebrate and be proud of the Armenian armed forces,

Hovik (00:58:49):

we are remembering the victims whose names...

Asbed (00:58:54):

They're turning Army Day into a Memorial Day,

Asbed (00:58:57):

basically.

Asbed (00:58:58):

At a time when you can't even find these government members ever at Yarablur

Asbed (00:59:04):

mourning or memorializing the war heroes.

Hovik (00:59:06):

And again,

Hovik (00:59:08):

at a time also when the full list of those who were supposed to mourn has not been

Hovik (00:59:14):

released by the government.

Asbed (00:59:16):

Half of the government.

Asbed (00:59:17):

By the way, a week ago, it was September 21, Armenian Independence Day for the Third Republic.

Asbed (00:59:25):

Half of the government was out of the country.

Asbed (00:59:27):

doing other things.

Asbed (00:59:29):

Supposedly some of them were celebrating Armenian Independence Day,

Asbed (00:59:33):

let's say in China or whatever that was,

Asbed (00:59:35):

but nobody was in Armenia.

Hovik (00:59:39):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:59:40):

Anyway. So...

Hovik (00:59:42):

Peace is also not possible with 150,000 Artsakh or Nagorno-Karabakh residents who

Hovik (00:59:49):

have been ethnically cleansed,

Hovik (00:59:50):

who have been spread across the world,

Hovik (00:59:52):

and some of them are still in Armenia,

Hovik (00:59:55):

not even being able to visit the graves of their sons who have given their lives

Hovik (01:00:00):

for Artsakh.

Hovik (01:00:01):

And an undignified peace is not possible for Armenian families,

Hovik (01:00:06):

the sons and daughters who have given their lives for the war and their memory is

Hovik (01:00:10):

being humiliated.

Asbed (01:00:12):

Yeah, and one final thought before we close, Hovik.

Asbed (01:00:16):

If you are not willing to accept the losses in Artsakh and want Artsakh to become

Asbed (01:00:22):

Armenian again,

Asbed (01:00:24):

don't let anybody call you a revanchist.

Asbed (01:00:27):

That is complete bullshit propaganda.

Asbed (01:00:29):

You are not a revanchist if you are seeking truth and justice, okay?

Asbed (01:00:34):

Stick with it.

Asbed (01:00:35):

It's your right.

Asbed (01:00:36):

It's the right of all Artsakhtsis to return to their homes.

Asbed (01:00:39):

And that's that, period.

Asbed (01:00:42):

That's all there is to it.

Asbed (01:00:45):

Okay.

Asbed (01:00:46):

Well, so that was our week in review.

Asbed (01:00:50):

Our one topic week in review.

Asbed (01:00:51):

Maybe we should call it a conversation between the two of us, Hovik.

Asbed (01:00:56):

Recorded on September 28, 2025.

Asbed (01:00:59):

I'm Ararat Bedrossian in Los Angeles.

Hovik (01:01:03):

And this was Ararat Manucharyan temporarily visiting Los Angeles.

Asbed (01:01:09):

We'll talk to you next week.

Asbed (01:01:11):

Stay well.

People on this episode

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host

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