Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Benyamin   Poghosyan - Ajapahyan Sentenced, Moldova, EPC, Peace Act, Dismantling the Armenian Military | Ep 477, Oct 5, 2025

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Ajapahyan Sentenced, Moldova, EPC, Peace Act, Dismantling the Armenian Military

Groong Week in Review - October 5, 2025

Topics

  • Ajapahyan Sentenced: 2 Years in Jail
  • Moldova Election Lessons
  • EPC in Copenhagen, WSF in Warsaw
  • Peace Act
  • Dismantling Armenia's Military

Guest

Hosts


Episode 477 | Recorded: October 6, 2025

https://podcasts.groong.org/477


Subscribe and follow us everywhere you are: linktr.ee/groong

Asbed (00:00:06):

Welcome to Groong.

Asbed (00:00:07):

A prominent archbishop opposed to Pashinyan has been sentenced to two years in jail

Asbed (00:00:12):

simply for speaking up.

Asbed (00:00:13):

Civil contract members of parliament are threatening to ban Armenian opposition parties.

Asbed (00:00:18):

And could the US impose sanctions on the Armenian opposition or even us?

Asbed (00:00:23):

at Groong, simply for speaking up against Pashinyan's capitulation.

Asbed (00:00:27):

These and other topics will be covered in this weekend review,

Asbed (00:00:30):

which is for October 5,

Asbed (00:00:32):

2025, with Dr.

Asbed (00:00:33):

Benyamin Poghosyan,

Asbed (00:00:34):

a senior fellow at APRI Armenia in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:00:37):

Hello, Benyamin.

Asbed (00:00:38):

Welcome back to the Groong podcast.

Benyamin (00:00:40):

Hello, Asbed.

Benyamin (00:00:41):

Hello, Hovik. It's always a pleasure to be with you.

Benyamin (00:00:43):

And as usual, thanks for having me.

Hovik (00:00:46):

And it's another busy week for us, so let's begin.

Hovik (00:00:51):

Archbishop Mikayel Ajapahyan was sentenced to two years in prison on Friday for simply remarks.

Hovik (00:00:59):

Remarks that the prosecutors say would call for state overthrow.

Hovik (00:01:04):

The accusation cited speeches from February 2024 and June 2025.

Hovik (00:01:10):

Now,

Hovik (00:01:11):

authorities first had investigated some of these speeches and said that there was

Hovik (00:01:15):

no offense,

Hovik (00:01:16):

but then reopened the matter and justified it by arguing that the comments were

Hovik (00:01:21):

deliberate and persistent,

Hovik (00:01:23):

and the arrests in the Holy Struggle movement,

Hovik (00:01:26):

that's another archbishop who is under persecution,

Hovik (00:01:29):

Bagrat Srbazan,

Hovik (00:01:30):

changed the entire context in which the speech was made.

Hovik (00:01:33):

And the verdict landed amid years of friction between the government and the

Hovik (00:01:38):

Armenian Church,

Hovik (00:01:40):

especially after the fall of Artsakh.

Hovik (00:01:42):

The rhetoric towards the Armenian Church and the Catholicos has only increased,

Hovik (00:01:47):

including threats to unseat the Catholicos by Pashinyan.

Hovik (00:01:51):

So what are your thoughts about this case and what political goal does this verdict

Hovik (00:01:58):

serve for the ruling bloc civil contract right now?

Benyamin (00:02:02):

First of all, this is a bad sign.

Benyamin (00:02:05):

Bad sign for Armenia, especially for the state which claims that

Benyamin (00:02:11):

Its ultimate goal is the Western liberal democracy,

Benyamin (00:02:14):

or who claims that every day or every month is coming closer to the Western-style

Benyamin (00:02:19):

democracy,

Benyamin (00:02:20):

coming closer,

Benyamin (00:02:21):

or at least wants to come closer to the European Union.

Benyamin (00:02:24):

Just today,

Benyamin (00:02:26):

I mean on October 6th,

Benyamin (00:02:28):

Prime Minister issued a decree establishing European Integration Department within

Benyamin (00:02:33):

Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Benyamin (00:02:35):

like another step or another sign that Armenia wants to be closer to the European

Benyamin (00:02:40):

Union and from this perspective to put a person for two years in jail for only an

Benyamin (00:02:48):

interview I think it contradicts the basic idea of your vision or your desire to be

Benyamin (00:02:54):

closer to the Western liberal democracy and by the way regardless the person is

Benyamin (00:03:00):

archbishop or even ordinary citizen but of course this is also

Benyamin (00:03:05):

my understanding is that this is also part of this general fight against the

Benyamin (00:03:10):

Armenian church,

Benyamin (00:03:11):

or at least,

Benyamin (00:03:12):

as government says,

Benyamin (00:03:13):

against the leadership of the church.

Benyamin (00:03:15):

I think once we discussed that now government tries to say that he's not against

Benyamin (00:03:19):

the church, and we hear that prime minister sometimes referring to some biblical texts to show

Benyamin (00:03:24):

him that he's not fighting against church or Christianity or against the faith per se

Benyamin (00:03:29):

but against the church leadership.

Benyamin (00:03:31):

And of course, both the case of

Benyamin (00:03:33):

Archbishop Mikayel Ajapahyan and also the case of Archbishop Bagrat and 17 others

Benyamin (00:03:40):

or 16 others and their trial continues.

Benyamin (00:03:43):

This is also definitely part of this struggle or fight against Armenian Church or

Benyamin (00:03:48):

at least against leadership of the Armenian Church.

Benyamin (00:03:51):

And yes, we are only like eight months before

Benyamin (00:03:55):

June 2026 parliamentary elections and I think this is also a sign that as we come

Benyamin (00:04:01):

closer to the elections I'm afraid that we will see more this type of decisions

Benyamin (00:04:07):

which at least raise doubts.

Benyamin (00:04:10):

I don't want to use other terminology but definitely this at least raise doubts

Benyamin (00:04:14):

that here we see also the political motivation and some sort of selective justice

Benyamin (00:04:19):

and

Benyamin (00:04:20):

A lot of other things,

Benyamin (00:04:21):

which again,

Benyamin (00:04:22):

I believe are not in line with the government desire or declared goal to be more

Benyamin (00:04:28):

democratic and come closer to the European Union.

Hovik (00:04:32):

Yeah, and Pashinyan of course is known for his very aggressive speech.

Hovik (00:04:36):

He frequently threatens to bash his opponents on the walls and splatter them on asphalt.

Hovik (00:04:45):

So, you know,

Hovik (00:04:46):

I would understand that if this was a case where,

Hovik (00:04:48):

you know,

Hovik (00:04:49):

he's trying to lower the rhetoric across,

Hovik (00:04:52):

you know, the entire sort of culture.

Hovik (00:04:55):

Political culture, I would say, okay, well, at least, you know, it's uniform.

Hovik (00:04:59):

But yeah,

Hovik (00:05:00):

what you said is,

Hovik (00:05:01):

you know,

Hovik (00:05:02):

selective,

Hovik (00:05:03):

you know,

Hovik (00:05:04):

the word selective is very apropos,

Hovik (00:05:07):

I think, in this case.

Hovik (00:05:08):

And in one case, government, pro-Pashinyan people seem to have...

Hovik (00:05:14):

carte blanche in terms of what they can talk about,

Hovik (00:05:16):

including calls for violence and harassment of the prosecution.

Hovik (00:05:20):

But in the case of the opposition, anything they say.

Hovik (00:05:24):

For our listeners,

Hovik (00:05:25):

I just want to say,

Hovik (00:05:26):

I mean, basically,

Hovik (00:05:28):

Mikayel Ajapahyan said that the army should have stood up.

Hovik (00:05:32):

And he was referring,

Hovik (00:05:34):

I believe,

Hovik (00:05:35):

to an earlier 2021 case when the army generals made a call for Pashinyan to

Benyamin (00:05:44):

resign yes i guess in February 2021 when there was a statement from general staff

Benyamin (00:05:50):

and almost all generals of the general staff signed the statement that prime

Benyamin (00:05:55):

minister should resign and then of course prime minister declared this as a some

Benyamin (00:05:59):

sort of attempt of military coup organized a big rally in Yerevan and at the end of

Benyamin (00:06:04):

the day fired then the chief of general staff i think only Gasparyan if I remember

Benyamin (00:06:09):

incorrectly there was a huge saga regarding president because president first I

Benyamin (00:06:13):

mean previous president Armen Sarkisian he first, he didn't sign but also he didn't

Benyamin (00:06:19):

apply to the constitutional court and at the end of the day like I think Gasparyan

Benyamin (00:06:23):

was fired by the decreed prime minister or by the force of law because like

Benyamin (00:06:27):

president did nothing like try to keep neutrality

Hovik (00:06:30):

So essentially,

Hovik (00:06:31):

just for simply stating an opinion,

Hovik (00:06:33):

saying that the army should have stood up,

Hovik (00:06:39):

you know, Mikayel Ajapahyan,

Hovik (00:06:40):

that is the only,

Hovik (00:06:41):

there's no linking,

Hovik (00:06:42):

as far as I know,

Hovik (00:06:43):

there's actually no hard links between Ajapahyan and the other case as well,

Hovik (00:06:48):

which also,

Hovik (00:06:49):

in our opinion,

Hovik (00:06:50):

in my opinion, at least,

Hovik (00:06:51):

is biased.

Hovik (00:06:53):

You know, you can be sent to jail in Armenia, and we've seen other cases in Armenia like this.

Hovik (00:06:59):

Let me read the statement by Mikayel Ajapahyan.

Hovik (00:07:04):

I think that this will be appealed but you know he did not he's not going down

Hovik (00:07:09):

without a fight and I'm gonna read the statement because I think it's profound and

Hovik (00:07:15):

it expresses how I believe many Armenians feel today and you know he's an

Hovik (00:07:21):

Archbishop of the Armenian Church so

Hovik (00:07:25):

The civil government, consisting of mediocrity and absolute nothingness,

Hovik (00:07:29):

and the pitiful lackeys who served them,

Hovik (00:07:31):

brought to his conclusion another immoral scenario with my illegal and fabricated

Hovik (00:07:36):

conviction,

Hovik (00:07:37):

which is incomparable with the loss of our native Artsakh.

Hovik (00:07:41):

the existence of thousands of victims and missing persons and prisoners.

Hovik (00:07:46):

This will remain the shame and disgrace of this incompetent regime,

Hovik (00:07:50):

although no matter how much you spit in the face of the shameless,

Hovik (00:07:53):

it will seem like rain to them.

Hovik (00:07:55):

I promise to be a greater danger to them now than I was until today.

Hovik (00:08:01):

That is all for now.

Hovik (00:08:03):

All right.

Hovik (00:08:04):

Well, I mean, I don't know if there's anything to add to this,

Hovik (00:08:06):

but,

Hovik (00:08:07):

you know,

Hovik (00:08:08):

I guess,

Hovik (00:08:09):

Benjamin,

Hovik (00:08:10):

do you foresee further legal fights around this?

Hovik (00:08:14):

And, you know, what do you know more about the details?

Benyamin (00:08:18):

My understanding is that I think the lawyers of Archbishop,

Benyamin (00:08:21):

Mikayel Ajapahyan,

Benyamin (00:08:23):

they definitely are going to go to the appeal court.

Benyamin (00:08:26):

And also there was a statement by one of his lawyers that also they will try to

Benyamin (00:08:32):

open or they at least will appeal to open the criminal case against the judge,

Benyamin (00:08:36):

a lady,

Benyamin (00:08:37):

I believe,

Benyamin (00:08:38):

because they are telling that it's apparently the judge made like a clear non-legal

Benyamin (00:08:44):

decision and according to criminal court,

Benyamin (00:08:45):

you can't

Benyamin (00:08:47):

At least you can appeal to start a criminal investigation against the judge.

Benyamin (00:08:50):

So let's see, definitely the protest will continue.

Benyamin (00:08:53):

Of course, what will be the results?

Benyamin (00:08:55):

We may assume that most probably no big changes,

Benyamin (00:08:58):

but still,

Benyamin (00:08:59):

yes, lawyers will continue the legal battle.

Benyamin (00:09:03):

appealing both the court's decision for this sentence for two years jail,

Benyamin (00:09:10):

but also I think lawyers will at least try to somehow open criminal investigation

Benyamin (00:09:14):

against the judge.

Benyamin (00:09:15):

This is what one of the lawyers told.

Asbed (00:09:18):

Okay,

Asbed (00:09:19):

well, Benjamin,

Asbed (00:09:20):

I'm going to take us a little out of Armenia and come back to Armenia,

Asbed (00:09:24):

speaking about elections.

Asbed (00:09:26):

Moldova's elections a little more than a week ago ended with President Maia Sandu's

Asbed (00:09:30):

party claiming victory,

Asbed (00:09:32):

and critics say the field was tilted.

Asbed (00:09:35):

They point to a last minute ban on two opposition parties, unexpected bridge repair work.

Asbed (00:09:41):

These would be issues that limited access to certain polling places from

Asbed (00:09:45):

Transnistria,

Asbed (00:09:46):

for example,

Asbed (00:09:47):

and only two polling stations in Russia where there is a really large Moldovan

Asbed (00:09:52):

diaspora.

Asbed (00:09:53):

At the same time, many Moldovans in Europe had no problems voting.

Asbed (00:09:57):

And of course, there's no question as to who they voted for.

Asbed (00:10:01):

Before the vote,

Asbed (00:10:02):

European leaders warned about Russian meddling,

Asbed (00:10:05):

and after the vote,

Asbed (00:10:07):

they were quick to praise the results as democratic.

Asbed (00:10:10):

And these claims will shape how voters and neighbors judge what comes next.

Asbed (00:10:15):

Give us your thoughts on the elections in Moldova, won't you?

Benyamin (00:10:19):

Okay, so the election in Moldova, they were transformed by clear-cut geopolitical choice.

Benyamin (00:10:25):

So there was a feeling here when you are sitting in Yerevan or elsewhere and

Benyamin (00:10:30):

looking at what's happening in Moldova,

Benyamin (00:10:32):

it was a feeling like the Moldova is another battlefield between Russia and the

Benyamin (00:10:36):

West, or at least between Russia and the European Union.

Benyamin (00:10:39):

Because my understanding is that the United States,

Benyamin (00:10:42):

at least if we compare Trump vs Biden administration,

Benyamin (00:10:45):

has significantly lost its interest,

Benyamin (00:10:47):

at least on Moldova.

Benyamin (00:10:48):

So there was a clear-cut battle between Russia and the European Union who is going

Benyamin (00:10:53):

to influence Moldovan elections and who is going to have more favorable candidates

Benyamin (00:11:01):

in power in Moldova.

Benyamin (00:11:03):

And of course,

Benyamin (00:11:04):

I don't think this is good for Moldova or for Moldovan people because what's

Benyamin (00:11:08):

happening in Ukraine and in some other places shows that when,

Benyamin (00:11:12):

especially in the period of this transition from unipolar world to something else,

Benyamin (00:11:17):

The period when international law is not working,

Benyamin (00:11:21):

or at least not working fully,

Benyamin (00:11:23):

we see a lot of emphasis on the hard power to become like a battlefield between

Benyamin (00:11:29):

much bigger powers.

Benyamin (00:11:30):

Let's not forget that Moldova is a compact country and population,

Benyamin (00:11:35):

I believe, less than even in Armenia.

Benyamin (00:11:37):

Like Chisinau, capital is less than 1 million people.

Benyamin (00:11:42):

So being transformed into the battlefield between big powers,

Benyamin (00:11:46):

I don't think it's good for any country.

Benyamin (00:11:48):

But at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:11:50):

I'm not sure if there is also any choice,

Benyamin (00:11:52):

because at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:11:54):

these former Soviet Union countries,

Benyamin (00:11:56):

they were transformed

Benyamin (00:11:58):

into battlefields between Russia and the West.

Benyamin (00:12:00):

Of course,

Benyamin (00:12:01):

we may say that also the West and the European Union was pushing for this,

Benyamin (00:12:05):

because from my perspective,

Benyamin (00:12:06):

Russia was happy also to view these countries as a buffer zone,

Benyamin (00:12:11):

like somehow shared influence,

Benyamin (00:12:14):

both Russia and the European Union or the West.

Benyamin (00:12:17):

But I have a feeling that from the Western perspective,

Benyamin (00:12:20):

West is not very happy to have any buffer states.

Benyamin (00:12:23):

So from their perspective,

Benyamin (00:12:25):

it should be like clear-cut either,

Benyamin (00:12:27):

you should be part of Western influence or some call it civilization,

Benyamin (00:12:31):

but I don't want to jump into civilizational debates.

Benyamin (00:12:34):

from Western perspective or from the EU perspective,

Benyamin (00:12:37):

either you should be part of the European Union or be influenced by the European

Benyamin (00:12:42):

Union or you should be part of Russia.

Benyamin (00:12:45):

And again, I don't think that this will bring

Benyamin (00:12:48):

tangible benefits for Moldovan, at least for the next three, five, seven years.

Benyamin (00:12:52):

Nobody knows what will happen in 10 years.

Benyamin (00:12:54):

Of course,

Benyamin (00:12:55):

we may assume that Moldova can become a member of the European Union,

Benyamin (00:12:58):

especially more than 50% of Moldovan citizens,

Benyamin (00:13:02):

they have EU passports because more than 50% of Moldovan citizens,

Benyamin (00:13:06):

they have Romanian passports and hundreds of thousands of Moldovan citizens

Benyamin (00:13:10):

actually live in European Union,

Benyamin (00:13:11):

in Romania and some other countries.

Benyamin (00:13:14):

But then

Benyamin (00:13:15):

At the end of the day, maybe Moldova will end up like Cyprus.

Benyamin (00:13:18):

We all know Cyprus.

Benyamin (00:13:19):

It's legally all Cyprus is part of the European Union,

Benyamin (00:13:23):

but Northern Cyprus is occupied by Turkey and there is this Turkish Republic and

Benyamin (00:13:27):

there is a Transnistrian Moldova.

Benyamin (00:13:29):

I don't exclude that at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:13:31):

Moldova will join EU,

Benyamin (00:13:32):

not now,

Benyamin (00:13:33):

maybe in 2030,

Benyamin (00:13:35):

2035, but de facto Transnistria will be out.

Benyamin (00:13:37):

And again, it will be like frozen conflict, simmering tensions and at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:13:44):

Let's hope that Moldova will not end up like Ukraine,

Benyamin (00:13:46):

like it will not be a real battlefield,

Benyamin (00:13:49):

not a political battlefield,

Benyamin (00:13:50):

but a real battlefield.

Benyamin (00:13:52):

Let's hope, at least for Moldovans.

Asbed (00:13:54):

Benjamin, at one time,

Asbed (00:13:55):

Armenian citizens outside of Armenia could also vote in elections until the laws

Asbed (00:14:00):

changed. What are your thoughts about allowing diasporas of any nation,

Asbed (00:14:04):

actually,

Asbed (00:14:05):

to vote in national elections?

Benyamin (00:14:08):

Frankly speaking, for me, this is a little bit controversial because I think if you vote...

Benyamin (00:14:14):

you also should bear some responsibility for your actions.

Benyamin (00:14:18):

But what we see in this case,

Benyamin (00:14:19):

when diasporan people are voting and they are coming to their country mostly like

Benyamin (00:14:24):

tourists for one week per year or even less,

Benyamin (00:14:28):

maybe one week per two or three years,

Benyamin (00:14:31):

they don't bear any responsibility.

Benyamin (00:14:33):

Even in the case of Moldova,

Benyamin (00:14:34):

if we will have the worst-case scenario,

Benyamin (00:14:37):

hopefully not, but if we will have a worst-case scenario and some sort of hostilities will,

Benyamin (00:14:42):

again...

Benyamin (00:14:43):

start in Moldova because of Russian actions, Romanian counter actions, or whatever.

Benyamin (00:14:48):

Then,

Benyamin (00:14:49):

these hundreds of thousands of Moldovan living in Romania and other European Union

Benyamin (00:14:54):

countries, they will face no consequences.

Benyamin (00:14:57):

They will continue their ordinary life,

Benyamin (00:14:59):

more or less, in European countries,

Benyamin (00:15:01):

while those Moldovans,

Benyamin (00:15:03):

they will suffer.

Benyamin (00:15:04):

Part of them will be killed, some will maim, like...

Benyamin (00:15:10):

economy will go down even more.

Benyamin (00:15:13):

So probably I would say that I have doubts that allowing people living in diaspora to vote

Benyamin (00:15:21):

at least all of them maybe there should be some criteria those who at least spend

Benyamin (00:15:26):

like six months per year in their country who for example pay some taxes at least

Benyamin (00:15:32):

some taxes in their country but for example if you are living outside your country

Benyamin (00:15:36):

and visit your country one week per one two or three year and then you are voting

Benyamin (00:15:42):

and impacting the situation inside country without

Benyamin (00:15:46):

bearing zero responsibilities and also facing no consequences,

Benyamin (00:15:50):

I'm not sure that this is honest or just.

Asbed (00:15:54):

Okay.

Asbed (00:15:55):

Now, if we look at Armenia,

Asbed (00:15:57):

Pashinyan also appears to enjoy strong backing from the EU,

Asbed (00:16:01):

like Maia Sandu in Moldova.

Asbed (00:16:04):

The European political community plans to hold its eighth summit in 2026 in Yerevan in May.

Asbed (00:16:12):

This year, of course, it just happened in October,

Asbed (00:16:14):

so next year it's been adjusted to May,

Asbed (00:16:17):

one month before the parliamentary elections in Armenia.

Asbed (00:16:21):

That timing, along with recent signals from Europe,

Asbed (00:16:23):

feeds the view that Western leaders will cheer results that favor Pashinyan,

Asbed (00:16:28):

and they will also question outcomes that hurt him.

Asbed (00:16:32):

Now,

Asbed (00:16:33):

at the same time,

Asbed (00:16:34):

many in the opposition are split and some feel that we should go the way of

Asbed (00:16:39):

impeachment and others feel that the elections remain the only practical way of

Asbed (00:16:44):

unseating Pashinyan.

Asbed (00:16:46):

Do you see the Moldovan pattern repeating in Armenia, first of all?

Asbed (00:16:50):

And what are the chances that the Armenian opposition have for free and fair

Asbed (00:16:55):

elections in Armenia under the current conditions?

Benyamin (00:16:59):

Okay, first of all, let's come to the domestic Armenian politics very briefly.

Benyamin (00:17:04):

Frankly speaking, I don't see any chances for any impeachment.

Benyamin (00:17:07):

Let's be clear,

Benyamin (00:17:08):

those who are calling for impeachment and who are telling that,

Benyamin (00:17:11):

okay,

Benyamin (00:17:12):

we will convince or force up to 20 civil contract MPs to join impeachment,

Benyamin (00:17:18):

they are telling that but this possible only if hundreds of thousands of people

Benyamin (00:17:22):

will gather in front of parliament.

Benyamin (00:17:25):

But these forces are not able to organize even the rally with participation of 10,000 people.

Benyamin (00:17:30):

Let's be clear.

Benyamin (00:17:31):

So if you are not able to bring 10,000 people to the Yerevan streets,

Benyamin (00:17:37):

and then you are telling that for impeachment,

Benyamin (00:17:39):

we need 100,000 people and then say that,

Benyamin (00:17:42):

okay, impeachment is real.

Benyamin (00:17:44):

Frankly speaking, I don't see this in line with conventional wisdom, to be very frank.

Benyamin (00:17:51):

Okay,

Benyamin (00:17:52):

if you are able to bring 100,000 people,

Benyamin (00:17:54):

then bring 100,000 people and then do whatever you want.

Benyamin (00:17:58):

Otherwise,

Benyamin (00:17:59):

for me, these are just like political gambling,

Benyamin (00:18:02):

maybe to,

Benyamin (00:18:03):

I don't know, either to increase your chances or to show that you are real opposition or you are

Benyamin (00:18:08):

more opposition than anyone else.

Benyamin (00:18:10):

But again, I don't see any real way for impeachment because those who are calling for

Benyamin (00:18:14):

impeachment

Benyamin (00:18:15):

And they accept they need at least 100,000 people outside parliament building for

Benyamin (00:18:20):

impeachment,

Benyamin (00:18:21):

but they are not able to bring 10,000 people outside parliament building.

Benyamin (00:18:25):

So I don't see how this impeachment can be done.

Benyamin (00:18:31):

Regarding comparison between Armenia and Moldova.

Benyamin (00:18:34):

Frankly speaking, I have a feeling,

Benyamin (00:18:35):

and this is just a feeling,

Benyamin (00:18:37):

that I don't believe that the EU leadership has the full trust on Armenian Prime

Benyamin (00:18:42):

Minister the same way as they have full trust on a Moldovan president.

Benyamin (00:18:47):

From this perspective, I think,

Benyamin (00:18:48):

yes, Maia Sandu is really perceived like a pro-European person,

Benyamin (00:18:52):

ideologically pro-European person.

Benyamin (00:18:54):

This is good or bad,

Benyamin (00:18:55):

I don't want to discuss it,

Benyamin (00:18:56):

but there is a trust that Maia Sandu's goal is to bring Moldova into the European

Benyamin (00:19:01):

Union, and she is already...

Benyamin (00:19:03):

to do a lot of things for this.

Benyamin (00:19:06):

I'm not sure that from the EU leadership perspective,

Benyamin (00:19:09):

Armenia's prime minister,

Benyamin (00:19:10):

they believe that Armenian prime minister has this ideological European,

Benyamin (00:19:15):

democratic or liberal vision.

Benyamin (00:19:17):

At the end of the day, prime minister himself many times stated that he has no

Benyamin (00:19:22):

Even immediately after the Velvet Revolution,

Benyamin (00:19:24):

when Pacinian just was elected as a prime minister,

Benyamin (00:19:27):

you can Google and find when he said that I don't have any ideology against any

Benyamin (00:19:32):

ideologies.

Benyamin (00:19:33):

Ideologies are the relics of past.

Benyamin (00:19:36):

So my only ideology is like pragmatism,

Benyamin (00:19:39):

that the people should live better,

Benyamin (00:19:41):

they should have better salaries or whatever.

Benyamin (00:19:44):

So I'm not sure that we can say that the prime minister is perceived

Benyamin (00:19:50):

by the European Union the same way, with 100% trust, than Maia Sandu.

Benyamin (00:19:55):

And let's not forget that there was a moment in Armenian history,

Benyamin (00:20:00):

only like 12-13 years ago,

Benyamin (00:20:02):

when Armenia and the President Sargsyan finished negotiations of association

Benyamin (00:20:05):

agreement and there was a clear conviction in the European Union leadership

Benyamin (00:20:10):

in that time, leadership, that Armenia will sign an association agreement.

Benyamin (00:20:14):

Then suddenly Serge Sargsyan went to Moscow in September 2013,

Benyamin (00:20:21):

like 12 years ago,

Benyamin (00:20:23):

and declared that instead of signing an association agreement,

Benyamin (00:20:26):

Armenia will join the European Economic Union.

Benyamin (00:20:28):

So there is a precedent.

Benyamin (00:20:30):

And I think that the Europeans, they have concerns that, for example, if

Benyamin (00:20:36):

current prime minister will see that continuing or taking real actions against

Benyamin (00:20:42):

Russia or continuing taking some anti-Russian steps may jeopardize his power,

Benyamin (00:20:47):

he will not like pass this threshold or even he may backtrack and be again neutral

Benyamin (00:20:54):

to Russia, or even become pro-Russian.

Benyamin (00:20:57):

And I think here is a difference.

Asbed (00:20:59):

Benjamin,

Asbed (00:21:01):

I'm fascinated by your statement that you don't think that Europe has as much trust

Asbed (00:21:06):

in Pashinyan as,

Asbed (00:21:07):

for example,

Asbed (00:21:08):

Maia Sandu.

Asbed (00:21:09):

Because from our perspective,

Asbed (00:21:10):

obviously,

Asbed (00:21:11):

Pashinyan has been 100% committed to Western methods and values and has given up

Asbed (00:21:17):

Artsakh basically on their demand.

Asbed (00:21:19):

The sacrifices that he has made for switching the country from a

Asbed (00:21:24):

Russian tilt to a European tilt, but they still don't have 100% trust in him.

Benyamin (00:21:31):

Look, if you jump into,

Benyamin (00:21:32):

and I'm afraid if you jump into what happened in 2022,

Benyamin (00:21:36):

2023, it will take probably one hour intense discussion.

Benyamin (00:21:39):

But my understanding is that many people outside Armenia, they view the situation this way.

Benyamin (00:21:45):

That, okay,

Benyamin (00:21:46):

it's fact that Prime Minister was never fond of Nagorno-Karabakh,

Benyamin (00:21:50):

but also it's fact that after the start of Russia-Ukraine war,

Benyamin (00:21:54):

Armenia started its diversification after the start of Russia-Ukraine war,

Benyamin (00:21:57):

or to be more precise,

Benyamin (00:21:59):

after Russia's failure to finish the war quickly.

Benyamin (00:22:03):

Because if you go into the 2021, and let me go into the details for just probably 120 seconds.

Benyamin (00:22:07):

In 2021, Armenia was fully pro-Russian.

Benyamin (00:22:13):

Armenia signed arms contracts with Russia in August 2021 under then Defense

Benyamin (00:22:17):

Minister Arshak Karapetyan.

Benyamin (00:22:20):

Russian military specialists were sitting in Ministry of Defense building,

Benyamin (00:22:24):

like today's American and French specialists,

Benyamin (00:22:27):

and making designs for Armenian army reforms,

Benyamin (00:22:29):

and Prime Minister was completely okay with that.

Benyamin (00:22:32):

Prime Minister was speaking with President Putin probably on a weekly basis,

Benyamin (00:22:36):

and even President Putin said,

Benyamin (00:22:39):

just before June 2021,

Benyamin (00:22:41):

President Putin publicly supported the Prime Minister before Senate parliamentary elections.

Benyamin (00:22:46):

You can Google it.

Benyamin (00:22:47):

Putin publicly stated that many people in Armenia accused Pashinyan of being a

Benyamin (00:22:50):

traitor,

Benyamin (00:22:51):

but Mr.

Benyamin (00:22:52):

Pashinyan is not a traitor.

Benyamin (00:22:53):

He's a real statesman who really did bold things because he really deeply cares

Benyamin (00:22:58):

about his statehood and his nation.

Benyamin (00:23:01):

And Pashinyan went to Moscow also in November 2021.

Benyamin (00:23:05):

He signed three statements with President Putin.

Benyamin (00:23:09):

November 2020, January 2021, November 2021.

Benyamin (00:23:13):

And this diversification started only after Russia's failure to finish the war in

Benyamin (00:23:20):

Ukraine quickly.

Benyamin (00:23:22):

Many people, I mean experts in Europe,

Benyamin (00:23:24):

they strongly believe that,

Benyamin (00:23:25):

for example,

Benyamin (00:23:26):

if Russia was able to somehow finish the war in Ukraine in April,

Benyamin (00:23:29):

May 2022,

Benyamin (00:23:30):

I don't know how,

Benyamin (00:23:32):

either to force Zelensky's resignation or signing some agreement with Zelensky,

Benyamin (00:23:35):

like Ukraine recognizing Donetsk and Lugansk independence or them as a part of

Benyamin (00:23:40):

Russia.

Benyamin (00:23:41):

then most probably there will be no Armenian foreign policy diversification.

Benyamin (00:23:45):

So from this perspective,

Benyamin (00:23:48):

Armenian government started diversification because they understood that,

Benyamin (00:23:52):

okay, Russia is becoming weaker and they started to look for new friends,

Benyamin (00:23:57):

in quotes.

Benyamin (00:23:58):

But what if Russia now becomes stronger?

Benyamin (00:24:00):

What are the guarantees that if in 2027 Russia again becomes stronger,

Benyamin (00:24:05):

The Armenian government will not do the same which the government did starting from

Benyamin (00:24:10):

summer 2022.

Benyamin (00:24:11):

There are no guarantees.

Benyamin (00:24:14):

And again, this is my feeling.

Benyamin (00:24:16):

Of course, I don't have any facts because I'm not a politician and I'm not in discussion with

Benyamin (00:24:21):

anyone, but I have a feeling that while if we speak about Maia Sandu,

Benyamin (00:24:25):

there is a feeling that this lady is really ideologically wants to bring Moldova to

Benyamin (00:24:31):

the European Union.

Benyamin (00:24:32):

she really believes that Russia is an evil empire or whatever.

Benyamin (00:24:36):

I'm not sure that there is such a feeling within the European Union leadership

Benyamin (00:24:42):

about the Prime Minister.

Benyamin (00:24:43):

Yes, there is a feeling that he is diversifying Armenian foreign policy,

Benyamin (00:24:47):

he is trying to pull Armenia slowly away from Russia,

Benyamin (00:24:50):

but when?

Benyamin (00:24:52):

Not in 2021.

Benyamin (00:24:53):

When it became clear that Russia

Benyamin (00:24:56):

will bog down in Ukraine and this will take years and years of fight.

Benyamin (00:25:00):

Again, and I will finish here,

Benyamin (00:25:02):

if Russia-Ukraine war would stop in May 2022,

Benyamin (00:25:08):

I have great doubts that we ever will heard about Armenian foreign policy

Benyamin (00:25:12):

diversification.

Asbed (00:25:14):

Understood.

Asbed (00:25:15):

Benjamin,

Asbed (00:25:16):

during last week's parliamentary debates,

Asbed (00:25:18):

the civil contract party spent much of their time targeting the Armenian opposition

Asbed (00:25:23):

parties.

Asbed (00:25:24):

They even promised to launch an investigation as to why the ARF has received

Asbed (00:25:28):

agricultural items as gifts.

Asbed (00:25:31):

Hasmik Hakobyan,

Asbed (00:25:32):

a Civil Contract member of parliament,

Asbed (00:25:34):

has previously made statements that the ARF should be banned,

Asbed (00:25:37):

should be closed down.

Asbed (00:25:39):

How likely do you see that the Armenian government is going to make such a move to

Asbed (00:25:44):

close down political parties?

Benyamin (00:25:47):

I don't exclude anything.

Benyamin (00:25:49):

And I think prime minister during his speech and Q&A session in the parliamentary

Benyamin (00:25:54):

assembly of council of Europe,

Benyamin (00:25:55):

like a few days ago,

Benyamin (00:25:57):

I believe he also did something like that,

Benyamin (00:26:00):

if not directly that some political parties can be banned,

Benyamin (00:26:02):

but he mentioned that,

Benyamin (00:26:03):

okay, we should look into how the political parties are funded,

Benyamin (00:26:07):

are they real political parties or something else?

Benyamin (00:26:10):

So I think he didn't, at least he didn't exclude such possibility.

Benyamin (00:26:17):

So one thing is clear that, look, every party wants to continue to be in a power.

Benyamin (00:26:22):

This is general rule.

Benyamin (00:26:24):

But in countries like Armenia,

Benyamin (00:26:25):

when there is a lot of,

Benyamin (00:26:28):

I would say, even hatred among different parts of societies,

Benyamin (00:26:32):

like political power is not only like possibility to implement your ideas,

Benyamin (00:26:39):

whatever your ideas is,

Benyamin (00:26:41):

in foreign policy or domestic policy.

Benyamin (00:26:43):

But in these type of countries, unfortunately for us,

Benyamin (00:26:47):

political power sometimes is also the tangible guarantee of your personal security.

Benyamin (00:26:53):

So from this perspective,

Benyamin (00:26:54):

like every party in every country in the world wants to continue to keep power,

Benyamin (00:26:59):

but in countries like Armenia,

Benyamin (00:27:02):

the parties in power,

Benyamin (00:27:04):

they want much more to continue to be in power.

Benyamin (00:27:07):

Like they have probably like multiple motivations.

Benyamin (00:27:12):

And of course, the ruling party will do everything to continue to be in power also after next

Benyamin (00:27:17):

parliamentary elections.

Benyamin (00:27:18):

And if, again, if, I don't know, but if they believe

Benyamin (00:27:24):

that banning some political parties or at least starting some processes or

Benyamin (00:27:28):

additional processes against political forces,

Benyamin (00:27:31):

political opponents,

Benyamin (00:27:33):

will increase their chances to continue to rule Armenia also after next

Benyamin (00:27:37):

parliamentary elections.

Benyamin (00:27:39):

Then, as Americans are telling, why not?

Hovik (00:27:41):

So last week,

Hovik (00:27:42):

Pashinyan and Aliyev attended the 7th European Political Community Summit in

Hovik (00:27:48):

Copenhagen.

Hovik (00:27:50):

Or it was, yeah.

Benyamin (00:27:53):

I think it was in Copenhagen.

Hovik (00:27:54):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:27:55):

And of course,

Hovik (00:27:57):

we want to know what happened besides just the handshakes that occurred.

Hovik (00:28:02):

Pashinyan was very fond of issuing press release for every single handshake that he

Hovik (00:28:07):

did. But Pashinyan also in this summit met with Aliyev.

Hovik (00:28:12):

And according to media, the issue of prisoners in Baku was not raised.

Hovik (00:28:17):

The issue of the rights of the refugees of Artsakh both in cultural and human

Hovik (00:28:26):

rights was not raised,

Hovik (00:28:28):

nor the fact that Azeri forces,

Hovik (00:28:31):

despite talking about peace,

Hovik (00:28:33):

are currently on sovereign Armenian territory.

Hovik (00:28:36):

Instead, they apparently congratulated each other for dissolving the OSC Minsk Group a month

Hovik (00:28:40):

ago,

Hovik (00:28:41):

mentioned transport links,

Hovik (00:28:43):

and agreed to further strengthen confidence-building measures between Armenia and

Hovik (00:28:47):

Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:28:48):

and agreed to meet again.

Hovik (00:28:51):

I hope you're all feeling the confidence rising in you.

Hovik (00:28:54):

But Pashinyan was not the only one, of course.

Hovik (00:28:57):

Ararat Mirzoyan was in Poland for a Warsaw Security Forum.

Hovik (00:29:01):

and a bunch of also handshakes were publicized like it was the Yalta conference or something.

Hovik (00:29:09):

Anyway,

Hovik (00:29:11):

my commentary aside,

Hovik (00:29:13):

what was achieved by Pashinyan and Mirzoan attending these conferences?

Benyamin (00:29:18):

Okay, let's start from EPC summit in Copenhagen.

Benyamin (00:29:24):

First of all,

Benyamin (00:29:25):

regarding Nagorno-Karabakh,

Benyamin (00:29:26):

it's very clear,

Benyamin (00:29:27):

and I think Prime Minister reiterated when he was asked about the right of return,

Benyamin (00:29:32):

he said that any discussion about the right of return of any refugees,

Benyamin (00:29:36):

like Armenians to Artsakh,

Benyamin (00:29:38):

Armenians to other parts of Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:29:41):

Azerbaijanis to part of Armenia,

Benyamin (00:29:43):

This is dangerous for peace process.

Benyamin (00:29:45):

This will lead nowhere.

Benyamin (00:29:46):

So his belief is that refugees from Artsakh who were ethnically cleansed in

Benyamin (00:29:52):

September 2023,

Benyamin (00:29:53):

they should forget about Artsakh or they should forget about return to Artsakh.

Benyamin (00:29:57):

Okay, they may remember Artsakh definitely,

Benyamin (00:29:59):

but they should forget about the return to Nagorno-Karabakh and they should be

Benyamin (00:30:04):

integrated into Republic of Armenia.

Benyamin (00:30:05):

Like this is a choice.

Benyamin (00:30:06):

Okay, no chance to come back and no discussions to come back.

Benyamin (00:30:11):

So you have option either be integrated into the Republic of Armenia or try to be

Benyamin (00:30:17):

integrated in other societies.

Benyamin (00:30:18):

And I think like recently CivilNet published the data,

Benyamin (00:30:21):

official data,

Benyamin (00:30:22):

that up to 16,000 Armenians who left,

Benyamin (00:30:26):

who was forced to leave Artsakh in September 2023,

Benyamin (00:30:29):

16,000 have already left Armenia permanently.

Benyamin (00:30:35):

So I'm not surprised that the Prime Minister did not raise this issue publicly or

Benyamin (00:30:40):

even non-publicly, because his position is very clear.

Benyamin (00:30:43):

Any discussion about the right of return of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenians to

Benyamin (00:30:47):

Artsakh,

Benyamin (00:30:48):

this is an obstacle or may create an obstacle for this peace process.

Benyamin (00:30:57):

Regarding the Armenian prisoners,

Benyamin (00:30:59):

I think it's very clear that the only chance,

Benyamin (00:31:03):

and I'm not sure this chance is 20%,

Benyamin (00:31:06):

50% or whatever, that these prisoners will be freed.

Benyamin (00:31:11):

It may happen only after the end of trials,

Benyamin (00:31:14):

when all sentences will enter into force,

Benyamin (00:31:16):

and most probably the people will get very harsh sentences,

Benyamin (00:31:19):

I don't know,

Benyamin (00:31:20):

20, 30 years in prison or life imprisonment.

Benyamin (00:31:22):

Then maybe, but again, big maybe,

Benyamin (00:31:25):

President Aliyev may pardon some of them,

Benyamin (00:31:28):

like to send a message to the West or to improve its international image,

Benyamin (00:31:33):

to say that he's a really like a president who cares about humanity or whatever.

Benyamin (00:31:39):

But as of now, I see very, very, very little chances that anyone from this 23 confirmed

Benyamin (00:31:46):

prisoners will be freed before trials end.

Benyamin (00:31:49):

So we have to wait when trials end and we don't know when trials may end.

Benyamin (00:31:53):

They started in January 2025, so almost like nine months they continue.

Benyamin (00:31:59):

Probably they will end somehow in probably like in maybe first half of 2026.

Benyamin (00:32:03):

But again, maybe.

Benyamin (00:32:04):

And then President Aliyev may pardon them, may not pardon them.

Benyamin (00:32:07):

It depends who will ask President Aliyev to pardon.

Benyamin (00:32:10):

It will be President Trump or someone else.

Benyamin (00:32:12):

So it's a lot of uncertainties.

Benyamin (00:32:14):

But again, very, very, very little chances that anyone will be freed while trials continue.

Benyamin (00:32:22):

Regarding the Warsaw Security Forum,

Benyamin (00:32:24):

this is the annual forum,

Benyamin (00:32:25):

I think for many years in Warsaw.

Benyamin (00:32:28):

And of course, always in Poland, there is a lot of talk about Russia.

Benyamin (00:32:32):

And you may understand that after February 2022, there is even more talk about Russia.

Benyamin (00:32:37):

So it's mostly, let's say, like Russia-focused forums and a little bit China-focused forum.

Benyamin (00:32:42):

Like there is a lot of talk about Russia threat and little bit talk about China

Benyamin (00:32:46):

threat and how the...

Benyamin (00:32:49):

Euro-Atlantic community may counter Russian and partly also Chinese threats.

Benyamin (00:32:54):

And in this year,

Benyamin (00:32:55):

I may assume that there should be also discussions about the current state of

Benyamin (00:32:58):

affairs or relations between the European Union and the United States after Trump's

Benyamin (00:33:04):

second administration.

Benyamin (00:33:06):

And then, yes, I think a foreign minister was in Warsaw also in 2024.

Benyamin (00:33:11):

In the same forum,

Benyamin (00:33:12):

he took part in session,

Benyamin (00:33:14):

and again made statements,

Benyamin (00:33:15):

and here he made statements.

Benyamin (00:33:17):

But to be very frank, I don't think that in these forums you can get some tangible results.

Benyamin (00:33:22):

This is just venues when it allows you to have some talks,

Benyamin (00:33:26):

additional talks, or to speak with your counterparts.

Benyamin (00:33:28):

But I don't believe that these are not the venues for official negotiations or

Benyamin (00:33:32):

efficient negotiations.

Benyamin (00:33:35):

So this is just an opportunity.

Benyamin (00:33:38):

The same way by the same flight also to EPC.

Benyamin (00:33:41):

Like, what is EPC?

Benyamin (00:33:42):

This is a Macron creation, and the first EPC took place in October 2022.

Benyamin (00:33:48):

Unfortunately,

Benyamin (00:33:49):

for decades or for centuries,

Benyamin (00:33:50):

I'm afraid,

Benyamin (00:33:51):

this will be marked by Armenians for this disaster which happened there.

Benyamin (00:33:56):

Recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but this is like Armenian perspective.

Benyamin (00:34:00):

But globally, or from European perspective, EPC is another political club.

Benyamin (00:34:05):

which allows leaders of,

Benyamin (00:34:06):

I don't know, 40,

Benyamin (00:34:07):

50 countries to meet and speak with each other,

Benyamin (00:34:11):

either face to face or some mini groupings.

Hovik (00:34:15):

I mean,

Hovik (00:34:16):

what is your take on the TRIPP,

Hovik (00:34:21):

you know,

Hovik (00:34:22):

or the so-called Zangezur Corridor negotiations between Armenia and the U.S.?

Hovik (00:34:25):

?

Hovik (00:34:28):

Have there been any changes in terms of the stance of Iran and Russia in this project?

Hovik (00:34:35):

And have there been any concrete steps moving forward?

Benyamin (00:34:41):

Okay, if we speak about concrete steps, I think the first tangible step was the visit of U.S.

Benyamin (00:34:47):

State Department delegation and the statement that the United States will allocate

Benyamin (00:34:50):

the first tranche of 145 million U.S.

Benyamin (00:34:52):

dollars

Benyamin (00:34:54):

This should be confirmed by U.S.

Benyamin (00:34:56):

Congress, and I'm not sure how this shutdown in U.S.

Benyamin (00:34:58):

may impact or may not impact the situation,

Benyamin (00:35:01):

but I have a feeling that at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:35:03):

this 145 million will arrive in Armenia.

Benyamin (00:35:07):

Of course, this is not precisely only for the construction of the railroad, of the TRIPP.

Benyamin (00:35:13):

This 145 million for all these free MOUs,

Benyamin (00:35:16):

and it's about like border control,

Benyamin (00:35:19):

artificial intelligence.

Benyamin (00:35:20):

And also now in Armenia,

Benyamin (00:35:22):

we have the team of US border controls or how it's called immigration and border

Benyamin (00:35:27):

control team.

Benyamin (00:35:28):

which arrived to assess the border control capacities of Armenia,

Benyamin (00:35:34):

to fix weak places and then come back to the US and offer some assistance to

Benyamin (00:35:39):

Armenia,

Benyamin (00:35:40):

which again can be part of TRIPP or part of this Crossroads of Peace,

Benyamin (00:35:45):

because one of the MOUs signed on August 8,

Benyamin (00:35:48):

2025 is about Crossroads of Peace.

Benyamin (00:35:49):

So I think we see the two concrete steps,

Benyamin (00:35:52):

this $145 million promise,

Benyamin (00:35:55):

which most probably will become a reality,

Benyamin (00:35:57):

And the arrival of this U.S.

Benyamin (00:35:59):

team, which, by the way, they're supposed to come in February 2025.

Benyamin (00:36:03):

Just remember on January 14,

Benyamin (00:36:04):

2025, when Ararat Mirzoyan and Secretary Blinken signed this Charter of Strategic

Benyamin (00:36:09):

Commission,

Benyamin (00:36:10):

Secretary Blinken stated that,

Benyamin (00:36:12):

okay, very soon,

Benyamin (00:36:13):

within weeks,

Benyamin (00:36:14):

the team will arrive in Armenia.

Benyamin (00:36:16):

So they're supposed to come to Armenia in February,

Benyamin (00:36:18):

but then there was a change of government,

Benyamin (00:36:20):

change of administration,

Benyamin (00:36:21):

but they arrived in early August.

Benyamin (00:36:24):

So these are the two real steps.

Benyamin (00:36:29):

But again, my understanding is that there is no full agreement,

Benyamin (00:36:32):

my feeling even,

Benyamin (00:36:33):

there is no full agreement between Armenia and the United States about the

Benyamin (00:36:37):

modalities of the TRIPP.

Benyamin (00:36:39):

Yeah, there is a broad understanding that some

Benyamin (00:36:41):

American-Armenian joint company will be established,

Benyamin (00:36:44):

which will have some consortium-like rights about the managing of this TRIPP.

Benyamin (00:36:50):

But this is like very broad, on strategic terms.

Benyamin (00:36:53):

Practically, there is a lack of understanding what does it mean, American-Armenian company.

Benyamin (00:36:57):

This will be private company.

Benyamin (00:36:59):

If it's private company, what US company will have shares?

Benyamin (00:37:03):

If it will be United States as a state who will have shares,

Benyamin (00:37:06):

then does it mean it will have like U.S.

Benyamin (00:37:08):

as a state from another part and Armenian private companies or it will be joint

Benyamin (00:37:13):

companies established by United States and Armenian states?

Benyamin (00:37:16):

And in this case,

Benyamin (00:37:17):

what responsibilities or rights will have the United States as a country if U.S.

Benyamin (00:37:22):

as a country will have shares?

Benyamin (00:37:24):

It will be like 50% shares controlled by U.S.

Benyamin (00:37:26):

state or American private company or it will be like 49% or 51%.

Benyamin (00:37:32):

My understanding is that still we will have a lot of discussions between US and

Benyamin (00:37:36):

Armenia to fix all these details and modalities,

Benyamin (00:37:40):

but then,

Benyamin (00:37:41):

before construction starts,

Benyamin (00:37:43):

I think these modalities should be agreed with Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:37:46):

Because at the end of the day, mostly

Benyamin (00:37:48):

Azerbaijan will use the TRIPP.

Benyamin (00:37:50):

I mean, Azerbaijani citizens or cargo will travel via TRIPP from Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan

Benyamin (00:37:55):

and then to Turkey.

Benyamin (00:37:56):

So if Azerbaijan will say,

Benyamin (00:37:58):

okay,

Benyamin (00:37:59):

I don't like or I don't accept the modalities agreed by the US and Armenia,

Benyamin (00:38:03):

and I will not use TRIPP under these modalities,

Benyamin (00:38:07):

then I don't think anyone will pay for the construction of this railroad or

Benyamin (00:38:10):

construction of TRIPP.

Benyamin (00:38:11):

Because why establish a route?

Benyamin (00:38:14):

which is not going to be used.

Benyamin (00:38:15):

Again, the primary user of TRIPP will be Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:38:19):

It will be Azerbaijani citizen and cargo who will travel via TRIPP from mainland

Benyamin (00:38:24):

Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan and then probably to Turkey.

Benyamin (00:38:27):

So, Azerbaijan should agree to accept the modalities which first should be discussed

Benyamin (00:38:32):

and agreed between Armenia and the United States.

Benyamin (00:38:34):

So, I think this will take time.

Benyamin (00:38:36):

First, we will need time to fix all details between Armenia and the United States.

Benyamin (00:38:41):

And then we need time to negotiate all these details agreed between Armenia and the

Benyamin (00:38:46):

United States with Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:38:49):

So, how much time and will ever agreements be reached?

Benyamin (00:38:53):

I don't know.

Benyamin (00:38:54):

I mean, there are chances that both Armenia, U.S.

Benyamin (00:38:57):

and Azerbaijan may agree on some sort of modalities which will satisfy three of

Benyamin (00:39:01):

them, but also there are chances that they will not be able to reach an agreement on

Benyamin (00:39:05):

modalities which will satisfy all of them.

Benyamin (00:39:08):

If it's second scenario,

Benyamin (00:39:09):

then I am afraid there will be no TRIPP,

Benyamin (00:39:12):

and probably when Mr.

Benyamin (00:39:15):

Trump will leave Oval Office,

Benyamin (00:39:17):

this TRIPP or Washington declaration will become something like November 10,

Benyamin (00:39:21):

2020, trilateral declaration signed by

Benyamin (00:39:25):

leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia.

Benyamin (00:39:26):

Now,

Benyamin (00:39:27):

few people remember them,

Benyamin (00:39:28):

but jump four years back,

Benyamin (00:39:31):

for example, in October 2021,

Benyamin (00:39:33):

everybody was speaking about these Armenia,

Benyamin (00:39:35):

Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:39:36):

and Russia trilateral declarations.

Benyamin (00:39:38):

So there is a chance that the TRIPP will be implemented,

Benyamin (00:39:40):

but also there are chances that the Washington Declaration may repeat the fate of

Benyamin (00:39:46):

the November 10,

Benyamin (00:39:48):

2020 trilateral declaration.

Benyamin (00:39:49):

Regarding Iranian-Russian reaction,

Benyamin (00:39:53):

I think that Iran now is in a, like, be ready mood for another Israeli aggression.

Benyamin (00:40:00):

Probably this aggression will happen either by the end of 2025 or early 2026, most probably.

Benyamin (00:40:07):

So, of course,

Benyamin (00:40:08):

Iran continues to have a lot of questions about TRIPP,

Benyamin (00:40:11):

but I think if you compare their concerns about TRIPP and their concerns about new

Benyamin (00:40:17):

Israeli or potentially joint Israel-US

Benyamin (00:40:20):

attack against Iran, definitely the second concerns are much, much, much higher.

Benyamin (00:40:25):

That is why I'm not sure that Iranians even have like time to seriously think what

Benyamin (00:40:30):

they can do with Armenia,

Benyamin (00:40:31):

with Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:40:32):

with TRIPP.

Asbed (00:40:33):

Is this the reason why they have taken a more cautious approach as opposed to maybe

Asbed (00:40:38):

previously a more confrontational defense of their red lines regarding Armenia's

Asbed (00:40:44):

border with Iran?

Asbed (00:40:45):

Because more recently,

Asbed (00:40:46):

they've said that their concerns have been alleviated after talking to Pashinyan

Asbed (00:40:51):

and his government.

Benyamin (00:40:53):

Frankly speaking,

Benyamin (00:40:54):

we received like some contradicting messages from Iran,

Benyamin (00:40:56):

because when Pezeshkian visited,

Benyamin (00:40:58):

Iranian president visited Yerevan,

Benyamin (00:41:00):

first he said that mostly concerns went down,

Benyamin (00:41:04):

but then after leaving Armenia,

Benyamin (00:41:05):

he said that yes,

Benyamin (00:41:06):

still there are some questions,

Benyamin (00:41:07):

and even the Iranian ambassador,

Benyamin (00:41:09):

who is going to be replaced very soon in his recent or the last press conference in

Benyamin (00:41:13):

Yerevan,

Benyamin (00:41:14):

he also said that some Iranian questions received answers,

Benyamin (00:41:17):

but some Iranian questions still remain regarding TRIPP,

Benyamin (00:41:21):

regarding the modalities of

Benyamin (00:41:22):

TRIPP but again my understanding is that Iranian state apparatus is fully focused on

Benyamin (00:41:29):

the potential new war with Israel or with Israel plus United States and this war

Benyamin (00:41:35):

may start even by the end of 2025,

Benyamin (00:41:39):

early 2026.

Benyamin (00:41:41):

Regarding Russia,

Benyamin (00:41:42):

again Russia continues to fully preoccupied with Ukraine and they were preoccupied

Benyamin (00:41:49):

also with Moldovan elections apparently

Benyamin (00:41:53):

But I think slowly,

Benyamin (00:41:54):

slowly Russia will put its focus on Armenian elections,

Benyamin (00:41:58):

not on TRIPP,

Benyamin (00:42:00):

because probably Russia also may hope that

Benyamin (00:42:03):

Armenia, US and Azerbaijan will fail to come into agreement about modalities of TRIPP,

Benyamin (00:42:09):

and because of this,

Benyamin (00:42:10):

TRIPP will be undermined without any Russian efforts.

Benyamin (00:42:14):

And probably this will be the best case scenario for Russia.

Benyamin (00:42:17):

If Armenia,

Benyamin (00:42:18):

the United States and Azerbaijan fail to agree on modalities,

Benyamin (00:42:22):

okay, no TRIPP without Russia spending any resources,

Benyamin (00:42:25):

the best case for Russia.

Benyamin (00:42:27):

But definitely, I think starting from now,

Benyamin (00:42:31):

Russia will slowly put its focus on Armenia's election in June 2026 and here I

Benyamin (00:42:37):

think Russia should make decisions what they are going to do or what scenarios are

Benyamin (00:42:42):

best suitable for Russia.

Benyamin (00:42:44):

They will put their efforts to bring new government

Benyamin (00:42:48):

in Armenia,

Benyamin (00:42:49):

or they will put efforts to bring more opposition into the parliament and thus have

Benyamin (00:42:54):

more leverage on Pashinyan.

Benyamin (00:42:56):

It's very difficult to say what people in Kremlin responsible for the post-Soviet

Benyamin (00:43:00):

space will decide.

Benyamin (00:43:01):

One thing is clear that there were some structural changes in Russian presidential

Benyamin (00:43:05):

administration. Two departments who were responsible for post-Soviet space, they were merged and one like

Benyamin (00:43:14):

one joint or unified department was created under Mr.

Benyamin (00:43:17):

Kiriyenko and this department will very soon,

Benyamin (00:43:20):

I think,

Benyamin (00:43:21):

start to think about Armenia's election and what Russia may or may not do before or

Benyamin (00:43:26):

during the election.

Asbed (00:43:28):

Benjamin,

Asbed (00:43:30):

we have all heard that US representative Daryl Issa here in Orange County has

Asbed (00:43:35):

rolled out a bill which he says deters aggression and backs Armenia and Azerbaijani

Asbed (00:43:43):

peace. It would sanction companies or entities that enable or profit from aggression against Armenia.

Asbed (00:43:49):

And it even has a catchy little title just like every bill in Washington.

Asbed (00:43:54):

Preventing Escalation and Advancing Caucuses Engagement Act, Peace Act.

Asbed (00:44:00):

Now,

Asbed (00:44:01):

in the section that says additional sanctions,

Asbed (00:44:04):

we see that the Secretary of State could target any person who knowingly attempted

Asbed (00:44:09):

to delay, frustrate,

Asbed (00:44:10):

or thwart the peace deal that's going on between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:44:14):

We translated this in our minds as...

Asbed (00:44:17):

Critics of capitulation may be fair game,

Asbed (00:44:21):

and that could sweep in opposition figures in Armenia,

Asbed (00:44:24):

civil society in Armenia,

Asbed (00:44:25):

diaspora advocates,

Asbed (00:44:27):

and maybe even podcasters with microphones.

Asbed (00:44:30):

What do you think, Hovik?

Asbed (00:44:33):

Here's another catch.

Asbed (00:44:35):

In the bill, there are provisions similar to section 907 where the president may opt to take a

Asbed (00:44:39):

waiver and not implement this if the president determines that the waiver is in the

Asbed (00:44:44):

national interests of the United States.

Asbed (00:44:46):

The bill does not mention anything about Artsakh.

Asbed (00:44:50):

It doesn't say anything about Armenian POWs.

Asbed (00:44:53):

And of course, it doesn't say anything about Azeri forces inside Armenia proper either.

Asbed (00:44:57):

It just says peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:45:00):

The Armenian National Committee of America criticized strongly this bill,

Asbed (00:45:05):

saying that people of Armenia have the right to debate the pros and cons of a

Asbed (00:45:09):

reckless peace deal in a democratic Armenia.

Asbed (00:45:12):

What's your take on this?

Asbed (00:45:14):

What do you think is going on?

Asbed (00:45:16):

How will this affect Armenian politics?

Asbed (00:45:18):

And do you think that this bill is an overreach inside Armenian politics proper?

Benyamin (00:45:24):

Okay, first of all, I think there's some sort of appeasement towards President Trump.

Benyamin (00:45:31):

Like, yes, peace deal, President Trump is peacemaker.

Benyamin (00:45:35):

By the way, let's see, finally, President Trump will get his Nobel Prize.

Benyamin (00:45:39):

Otherwise, I'm afraid he will be completely upset and no one knows what he will do with

Benyamin (00:45:44):

Ukraine, with Armenia,

Benyamin (00:45:45):

with the entire world.

Benyamin (00:45:46):

So my hope is that this Norwegian parliamentary committee will be wise enough,

Benyamin (00:45:52):

even if they have doubts that President Trump stop any war.

Benyamin (00:45:55):

And many have doubts that he stop any war, but...

Benyamin (00:45:57):

Like, maybe they will decide, okay, guys, let's give this guy peace prize and make him happy.

Benyamin (00:46:03):

And probably the rest of the world will be a little bit calmer place.

Benyamin (00:46:08):

But returning to more serious discussions,

Benyamin (00:46:11):

of course, this is some sort of appeasement to President Trump.

Benyamin (00:46:14):

And also this is, I think, like some sort of support to Armenia's government peace agenda.

Benyamin (00:46:22):

Because if you hear, like, leadership in Armenia, they are speaking about peace.

Benyamin (00:46:27):

Again, yes, they don't speak about Artsakh, ethnic cleansing, right of return and everything.

Benyamin (00:46:32):

So somehow I think this is a mix of,

Benyamin (00:46:33):

like,

Benyamin (00:46:34):

supporting Armenian government peace agenda while simultaneously appeasing

Benyamin (00:46:38):

President Trump.

Benyamin (00:46:39):

Regarding the sanctions,

Benyamin (00:46:40):

frankly speaking,

Benyamin (00:46:41):

I have a feeling,

Benyamin (00:46:42):

first of all, nobody knows,

Benyamin (00:46:43):

will this become a bill?

Benyamin (00:46:44):

We all know how it's complicated in the United States to have any bills.

Benyamin (00:46:48):

First, it should be supported or confirmed by House of Representatives,

Benyamin (00:46:51):

I guess then go to Senate,

Benyamin (00:46:53):

then Senate may make some changes,

Benyamin (00:46:54):

then the changed bill returns back to the House of Representatives and then end up

Benyamin (00:46:59):

at the President's Resolute Desk at Oval Office.

Benyamin (00:47:02):

So it's a very complicated process and chances are at least 50% I would say that

Benyamin (00:47:08):

this resolution will never become a bill.

Benyamin (00:47:10):

But even if it becomes a bill, regarding the sanctions, I think

Benyamin (00:47:14):

Here,

Benyamin (00:47:15):

the idea is to sanction the people with power when they are speaking about anyone

Benyamin (00:47:20):

who will undermine the peace deal.

Benyamin (00:47:23):

I don't think that anyone thinks that any expert sitting in Yerevan,

Benyamin (00:47:27):

Washington,

Benyamin (00:47:28):

Paris, or even Sydney is able to undermine any peace deal in real time.

Benyamin (00:47:33):

Of course, in the long term,

Benyamin (00:47:34):

we may say that, okay,

Benyamin (00:47:35):

experts by writing,

Benyamin (00:47:37):

speaking,

Benyamin (00:47:38):

and et cetera, they may impact

Benyamin (00:47:40):

society's perception.

Benyamin (00:47:41):

But all this is a very long, long, long process, which will take years or even decades.

Asbed (00:47:47):

Do you think maybe they're targeting people like Samvel Karapetyan?

Benyamin (00:47:51):

My understanding is that they are trying to target,

Benyamin (00:47:53):

for example, look,

Benyamin (00:47:54):

first of all,

Benyamin (00:47:55):

of course, the target is Azerbaijan because we hear that

Benyamin (00:47:58):

Azerbaijan leadership continues to use the term Zangezur corridor or TRIPP passing

Benyamin (00:48:02):

through Zangezur corridor,

Benyamin (00:48:03):

as President Aliyev stated during his speech in UN General Assembly.

Benyamin (00:48:07):

But let's assume that after next parliamentary elections,

Benyamin (00:48:11):

we have a new government in Armenia,

Benyamin (00:48:13):

a new prime minister,

Benyamin (00:48:15):

which of course is possible.

Benyamin (00:48:18):

this new government or new prime minister may say that okay,

Benyamin (00:48:21):

I fully respect the United States,

Benyamin (00:48:23):

I fully respect President Trump,

Benyamin (00:48:25):

but unfortunately the agreement,

Benyamin (00:48:26):

which by the way was negotiated way before Trump was in power,

Benyamin (00:48:30):

because Armenian and Azerbaijan agreed on the text in March 2025,

Benyamin (00:48:34):

when I believe even President Trump was not interested in South Caucasus or his

Benyamin (00:48:38):

special envoy Witkoff.

Benyamin (00:48:39):

New government or new prime minister may say

Benyamin (00:48:42):

no, I want to renegotiate this text because,

Benyamin (00:48:44):

for example,

Benyamin (00:48:46):

I want to change or amend article 6 or article 13.

Benyamin (00:48:50):

And of course, Azerbaijan may say no,

Benyamin (00:48:51):

the agreement was initialed,

Benyamin (00:48:53):

which means that you cannot change anything,

Benyamin (00:48:55):

so either you should sign or you should say I'm not signing this,

Benyamin (00:49:00):

and if you are not signing this,

Benyamin (00:49:01):

it means that it's going to be no peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:49:06):

or we should start the process from the scratch,

Benyamin (00:49:09):

which means that another years and years of negotiations.

Benyamin (00:49:11):

And if the bill is there,

Benyamin (00:49:14):

then yes, theoretically,

Benyamin (00:49:15):

United States may say,

Benyamin (00:49:16):

okay,

Benyamin (00:49:17):

the new Armenian government,

Benyamin (00:49:18):

I don't know, prime minister or minister of foreign affairs,

Benyamin (00:49:21):

by rejecting to sign,

Benyamin (00:49:23):

and if we believe that Azerbaijan will agree to sign,

Benyamin (00:49:26):

so it's like 100 ifs,

Benyamin (00:49:29):

So first of all, if we have new parliament,

Benyamin (00:49:30):

new parliament,

Benyamin (00:49:32):

new government, new prime minister,

Benyamin (00:49:33):

then if Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:49:35):

very surprisingly for me,

Benyamin (00:49:36):

will say I am ready to sign the agreement which was initialed in Washington in

Benyamin (00:49:42):

August 2025,

Benyamin (00:49:43):

and if this new Armenian government will say no,

Benyamin (00:49:45):

I'm not going to sign it because I believe that this is not fully in line with

Benyamin (00:49:50):

Armenian national interests,

Benyamin (00:49:52):

then theoretically,

Benyamin (00:49:53):

yes.

Benyamin (00:49:54):

United States may impose sanctions on new Armenian prime minister and new foreign minister.

Benyamin (00:49:59):

But because there is a lot of big ifs,

Benyamin (00:50:01):

I think now we are speaking about like a remote possibility.

Benyamin (00:50:04):

And also another very big if, if the bill will become low.

Benyamin (00:50:09):

or draft will become a bill.

Benyamin (00:50:12):

So there are a lot of ifs,

Benyamin (00:50:13):

so I think we are a little bit away from this possibility,

Benyamin (00:50:18):

because many ifs should get an answer of yes,

Benyamin (00:50:21):

yes,

Benyamin (00:50:22):

yes, yes,

Benyamin (00:50:23):

this should become a bill,

Benyamin (00:50:25):

Armenia should have a new government,

Benyamin (00:50:26):

Azerbaijan should be ready to sign and etc.

Hovik (00:50:30):

Yeah, I do want to ask an additional follow up on this.

Hovik (00:50:34):

We see that traditionally the ANCA has been in very close relation with members of

Hovik (00:50:41):

the Congressional Armenian Caucus and has worked hand in hand for years.

Hovik (00:50:49):

But do you see a sea change in public advocacy groups in the diaspora?

Hovik (00:50:58):

We saw this announcement from Darrell Issa,

Hovik (00:51:02):

which made reference to Tim Jamal of the GlobalARM,

Hovik (00:51:06):

which so far had not been a prominent Armenian advocacy group in the U.S.,

Hovik (00:51:12):

And we know that other individuals associated with global arm are very big

Hovik (00:51:18):

Pashinyan supporters.

Hovik (00:51:22):

So, you know, what is driving this shift in the U.S.

Hovik (00:51:26):

politics in terms of,

Hovik (00:51:29):

you know,

Hovik (00:51:30):

is Pashinyan somehow able to influence this shift or is this natural result of just

Hovik (00:51:37):

how things are developing in terms of Armenia where

Hovik (00:51:41):

Now it seems like the mantle for anything related to Armenia is being taken by,

Hovik (00:51:46):

you know,

Hovik (00:51:48):

an organization that is not ANCA.

Benyamin (00:51:52):

Okay. I believe it's not a change in US policy,

Benyamin (00:51:54):

but the change in Armenian diaspora,

Benyamin (00:51:56):

structural change or institutional change.

Benyamin (00:51:59):

Of course, it's clear that current Armenian government wants to have,

Benyamin (00:52:02):

let's say pro-government diaspora institutions,

Benyamin (00:52:06):

because like mostly traditional diaspora institutions are criticizing this

Benyamin (00:52:10):

government.

Benyamin (00:52:11):

Government is taking efforts and I believe even recently there was a diaspora

Benyamin (00:52:16):

summit in Armenia and no one from institutions,

Benyamin (00:52:21):

traditional institutions who are critical of government were invited.

Benyamin (00:52:25):

But there are a lot of new institutions in diaspora who are at least neutral

Benyamin (00:52:30):

towards the government and to receive some support from the current government.

Benyamin (00:52:34):

So I think what we see is a government efforts or government policy to create

Benyamin (00:52:40):

alternative institutions in diaspora who at least have a neutral stance towards

Benyamin (00:52:44):

government or who have positive stance towards government and also to use this to

Benyamin (00:52:50):

show that

Benyamin (00:52:52):

somehow government represents also part of Armenian diaspora because here there is

Benyamin (00:52:56):

a feeling and also among foreign experts that mostly Armenian diaspora is a

Benyamin (00:53:05):

grouping of nationalistic people who are against Armenian government,

Benyamin (00:53:09):

who are against peace agenda,

Benyamin (00:53:11):

who wants to undermine government peace efforts and etc.

Benyamin (00:53:15):

I think by creating these parallel institutions

Benyamin (00:53:18):

Armenian government also wants to send signal to the international community,

Benyamin (00:53:23):

like expert community,

Benyamin (00:53:25):

diplomatic community and others,

Benyamin (00:53:27):

that it is not the case that the whole diaspora is against this peace agenda or

Benyamin (00:53:32):

this real Armenian agenda,

Benyamin (00:53:34):

that at least part of the Armenian diaspora supports,

Benyamin (00:53:37):

or at least neutral,

Benyamin (00:53:39):

towards a real Armenia concept and towards like government's peace agenda.

Benyamin (00:53:45):

So I think that as far as current government is in power,

Benyamin (00:53:48):

they will continue to push forward for the establishment of these alternative

Benyamin (00:53:53):

diaspora institutions.

Hovik (00:53:55):

Okay, now moving on.

Hovik (00:53:58):

We want to talk about the military with you a little bit.

Hovik (00:54:01):

Pashinyan is reducing Armenia's defense budget by 15% in 2026.

Hovik (00:54:05):

And it's not like the previous year's allocation was spent

Hovik (00:54:11):

Effectively,

Hovik (00:54:12):

you know, we hear about continuous underspending on the budget,

Hovik (00:54:17):

you know, in this Pashinyan regime.

Hovik (00:54:20):

And Pashinyan says that as of August 8th,

Hovik (00:54:24):

that's the Trump photo op in Washington,

Hovik (00:54:27):

D.C., where they initialed the document.

Hovik (00:54:30):

There is now a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:54:35):

or there is now peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:54:38):

You wouldn't know it if you, of course, listen to Aliyev, but that's another story.

Hovik (00:54:42):

Suren Papikyan,

Hovik (00:54:43):

Minister of Defense,

Hovik (00:54:44):

has introduced a bill to shorten military service from 24 months to 18 months.

Hovik (00:54:51):

Meanwhile, Deputy Defense Minister Armen Sarkisian has asserted that Armenia currently has a

Hovik (00:54:57):

shortage of military personnel.

Hovik (00:55:02):

The Parliamentary opposition has said that these moves are

Hovik (00:55:06):

an unspoken compliance with Aliyev's demand to demilitarize Armenia.

Hovik (00:55:09):

But regardless,

Hovik (00:55:11):

there seems to be even some a little bit of speech from both sides of the mouth

Hovik (00:55:15):

when you're trying to reduce service from 24 to 18 months,

Hovik (00:55:20):

but at the same time complaining about shortage of military personnel.

Hovik (00:55:24):

How do you explain this move to shorten military service time?

Benyamin (00:55:29):

Okay, at least for very short term perspective, I think this is clearly done

Benyamin (00:55:34):

ahead of parliamentary elections.

Benyamin (00:55:36):

It's not a secret that few Armenians were happy to see their sons or husbands or

Benyamin (00:55:41):

brothers serve 24 months in the Armenian army.

Benyamin (00:55:45):

So any of these decisions will be supported by a vast majority of Armenian society,

Benyamin (00:55:50):

at least this is my perspective.

Benyamin (00:55:55):

I think if the idea is that if opposition will say,

Benyamin (00:55:58):

no, this is a bad thing because we have shortage of manpower or because President

Benyamin (00:56:03):

Aliyev is increasing defense budget or because of anything,

Benyamin (00:56:06):

then probably the hope is or the calculation is that,

Benyamin (00:56:09):

OK,

Benyamin (00:56:10):

people will say if we will vote for opposition and if they come to power,

Benyamin (00:56:15):

then they will cancel the law.

Benyamin (00:56:17):

because currently Civil Contract has a majority and I may assume that by the end of

Benyamin (00:56:20):

2025 or in early 2026,

Benyamin (00:56:22):

this bill will be adopted by parliament,

Benyamin (00:56:25):

will be signed by the president,

Benyamin (00:56:27):

and officially anyone who will start his mandatory conscription in summer 2026,

Benyamin (00:56:32):

he will serve 18 months.

Benyamin (00:56:34):

In this context,

Benyamin (00:56:36):

to say that,

Benyamin (00:56:37):

okay, if vote for me and I will come cancel this law and again bring back the

Benyamin (00:56:42):

conscription service for 24 months,

Benyamin (00:56:44):

Definitely this part of the population probably will not vote for opposition only for this.

Benyamin (00:56:51):

So this is like short-term political calculations.

Benyamin (00:56:54):

Regarding long-term calculations, how much this may impact the

Benyamin (00:57:01):

military preparedness of the Armenian army is difficult to say because like 2020

Benyamin (00:57:05):

war proved that Armenian army was not in a base shape even having this 24 month

Benyamin (00:57:11):

training and also if you look into the Europe there are countries who now try to

Benyamin (00:57:15):

reintroduce mandatory service for 12 months telling that even 12 months intensive

Benyamin (00:57:20):

training is

Benyamin (00:57:22):

okay and also a lot of people who served in army tells that okay they have a lot of

Benyamin (00:57:26):

free time so I'm not in a position to say that okay 18 months is absolutely not

Benyamin (00:57:31):

sufficient for good training because I'm not an expert but I know that in some

Benyamin (00:57:35):

European countries you even one year service is good for training so it's difficult

Benyamin (00:57:41):

for me to say how this may impact military preparedness or capacities of the

Benyamin (00:57:46):

Armenian army in the longer term but my understanding is that

Benyamin (00:57:51):

Partly, this move has also political calculations ahead of parliamentary elections.

Benyamin (00:57:58):

Regarding the defense budget,

Benyamin (00:57:59):

first,

Benyamin (00:58:00):

I think this is lined with your statement that peace has come,

Benyamin (00:58:03):

because if you are telling that peace has arrived,

Benyamin (00:58:06):

we already have peace,

Benyamin (00:58:07):

and then you increase defense budget,

Benyamin (00:58:09):

people will say, okay,

Benyamin (00:58:10):

what's the logic?

Benyamin (00:58:11):

It means that even you do not believe that peace has come.

Benyamin (00:58:14):

If you are telling peace has come, then increase defense budget.

Benyamin (00:58:17):

First of all, the decrease of defense budget,

Benyamin (00:58:19):

I think,

Benyamin (00:58:20):

is like a step to show the people that,

Benyamin (00:58:22):

at least from government perspective,

Benyamin (00:58:23):

the government at least believes that a de facto piece,

Benyamin (00:58:27):

at least a de facto piece has arrived.

Benyamin (00:58:29):

Second, if you compare into the numbers,

Benyamin (00:58:31):

I mean publicly available numbers,

Benyamin (00:58:33):

even within 15% decrease,

Benyamin (00:58:34):

the defense budget of 2026 will be more than the defense budget of 2024.

Benyamin (00:58:41):

In absolute numbers.

Benyamin (00:58:43):

I don't remember exactly the numbers, but I remember that.

Asbed (00:58:47):

It went from 1.3 billion to 1.7 billion.

Benyamin (00:58:51):

Yes.

Asbed (00:58:51):

At least the allocation, we don't know how much of it was actually spent on defense.

Benyamin (00:58:56):

Yeah.

Benyamin (00:58:57):

So, I mean,

Benyamin (00:58:58):

also government can say,

Benyamin (00:58:59):

look,

Benyamin (00:59:00):

but in 2026,

Benyamin (00:59:01):

we still are going to spend more on defense than in 2024.

Benyamin (00:59:05):

And they may say that in 2025, it was a huge spike of defense spending.

Benyamin (00:59:10):

Maybe this was also because of the signature of these many contracts,

Benyamin (00:59:13):

which we heard with India,

Benyamin (00:59:15):

with France.

Benyamin (00:59:16):

But I would say that mostly this has political implications.

Benyamin (00:59:21):

And again, I think it will be difficult for any political force

Benyamin (00:59:26):

especially after this amendment will become a law.

Benyamin (00:59:30):

And I have a feeling that this amendment will become a law before elections.

Benyamin (00:59:34):

So again,

Benyamin (00:59:35):

if you are an opposition party and you are going to say,

Benyamin (00:59:38):

look,

Benyamin (00:59:39):

Parliament just adopted a law making mandatory service 18 months,

Benyamin (00:59:43):

vote for me and I will make it again 24 months.

Benyamin (00:59:47):

I'm not sure that this will be the right step to get white public support.

Asbed (00:59:53):

Well,

Asbed (00:59:54):

on your point regarding the decrease in the budget being in line with the belief

Asbed (00:59:59):

that there is a peace,

Asbed (01:00:00):

you would hope that it would be reciprocal with Aliyev,

Asbed (01:00:02):

who is maintaining,

Asbed (01:00:04):

at least maintaining,

Asbed (01:00:05):

if not increasing,

Asbed (01:00:06):

his budget of $5 billion a year in Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (01:00:09):

I think there was an increase in Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (01:00:11):

Probably if you calculate inflation,

Benyamin (01:00:13):

you may say that this was more or less the same because if you have an inflation of

Benyamin (01:00:17):

5% and you increase the defense budget for 5%,

Benyamin (01:00:20):

actually you have the same budget.

Benyamin (01:00:22):

Yes.

Asbed (01:00:24):

Every country around Armenia increased its defense budget, except Armenia for 2026.

Asbed (01:00:30):

Let me move to our last topic,

Asbed (01:00:32):

because in the last month,

Asbed (01:00:33):

there's been some drama played out in parliament where within the civil contract

Asbed (01:00:38):

party,

Asbed (01:00:39):

focusing on the investigation of the 44 day war by the head of the defense and

Asbed (01:00:43):

security committee,

Asbed (01:00:44):

Andranik Kocharian,

Asbed (01:00:46):

who's a member of parliament,

Asbed (01:00:48):

And this so-called war report was reportedly completed in March of 2025 and was

Asbed (01:00:54):

finally sent to the Speaker of Parliament,

Asbed (01:00:56):

Alain Simonian,

Asbed (01:00:57):

early in September,

Asbed (01:00:58):

about a month ago,

Asbed (01:00:59):

in order to be reviewed in the National Assembly on the fifth anniversary of the

Asbed (01:01:03):

war.

Asbed (01:01:04):

Of course, that didn't happen.

Asbed (01:01:05):

We have already numerous times expressed criticism that this committee,

Asbed (01:01:09):

controlled by the civil contract members,

Asbed (01:01:12):

are not incentivized to reach conclusions that would hurt their own party.

Asbed (01:01:16):

But even worse,

Asbed (01:01:17):

the scope of the Defense and Security Committee's mandate was very,

Asbed (01:01:21):

very narrow,

Asbed (01:01:22):

not being able to look into the political causes,

Asbed (01:01:24):

for example.

Asbed (01:01:26):

Anyway,

Asbed (01:01:27):

despite everything, Alan Simonian unexpectedly blocked the report from reaching the floor of the

Asbed (01:01:32):

parliament.

Asbed (01:01:33):

But now Andranik Kocharyan is insisting on releasing this report.

Asbed (01:01:37):

Why is there a disagreement within the civil contract party on releasing this report?

Benyamin (01:01:43):

Okay. I may assume,

Benyamin (01:01:44):

and there were also rumors before between tense relations between Andranik Kocharyan

Benyamin (01:01:49):

and Alen Simonyan.

Benyamin (01:01:50):

I don't want to jump into like personal relation gossips,

Benyamin (01:01:54):

but again,

Benyamin (01:01:55):

there were the rumors that like there are some tensions based on,

Benyamin (01:02:00):

I don't know what, frankly speaking.

Benyamin (01:02:02):

So I don't believe that the report was somehow could be harmful for Civil Contract.

Benyamin (01:02:08):

And that is why Alen Simonyan decided not to publish it, by the way.

Benyamin (01:02:12):

Today, on October 6th,

Benyamin (01:02:13):

Alain Simonian decided to send this report to the unit which is dealing with sacred

Benyamin (01:02:19):

documents in National Assembly,

Benyamin (01:02:21):

telling that the report is not going to be published,

Benyamin (01:02:23):

is not going to be discussed,

Benyamin (01:02:25):

and any MP who has access for classified information can go to this unit and read

Benyamin (01:02:31):

there.

Benyamin (01:02:32):

So this is the latest development.

Benyamin (01:02:35):

My feeling is,

Benyamin (01:02:36):

I really don't know the real causes,

Benyamin (01:02:37):

but my feeling is that this is mostly due to the personal relationship between

Benyamin (01:02:41):

Speaker and Mr.

Benyamin (01:02:42):

Kocharian,

Benyamin (01:02:43):

then of some political things,

Benyamin (01:02:45):

because look,

Benyamin (01:02:46):

opposition boycotted this commission,

Benyamin (01:02:49):

and I don't believe that this commission would put into the report

Benyamin (01:02:53):

some harmful things against civil contract or against prime minister,

Benyamin (01:02:57):

because the commission is also like part of civil contract.

Benyamin (01:03:00):

And then Alen Simonyan decided,

Benyamin (01:03:03):

I'm not going to release it,

Benyamin (01:03:04):

not to harm prime minister or not to harm civil contract.

Benyamin (01:03:07):

I don't believe that the commission will try to harm prime minister or civil contract.

Benyamin (01:03:12):

So I see this as a, like some sort of personal relationship issue.

Benyamin (01:03:17):

I don't know why, frankly speaking, but...

Benyamin (01:03:20):

For my perspective,

Benyamin (01:03:21):

again, I don't think this is...

Benyamin (01:03:23):

This is not about the substance of the report.

Benyamin (01:03:26):

I don't know the substance.

Benyamin (01:03:28):

But also it's clear that if the people who were responsible to govern the country

Benyamin (01:03:34):

during the war,

Benyamin (01:03:36):

which ended very drastically in a negative way for that country,

Benyamin (01:03:40):

if the same people are investigating the causes or reasons,

Benyamin (01:03:43):

etc.,

Benyamin (01:03:44):

then basic conventional wisdom tells us

Benyamin (01:03:48):

That if they are not super honest people,

Benyamin (01:03:51):

and unfortunately,

Benyamin (01:03:52):

usually politicians are not super honest people,

Benyamin (01:03:55):

it's very difficult to assume that they will super honestly fix or record all their

Benyamin (01:04:01):

mistakes or all their blunders.

Asbed (01:04:04):

So do you expect there will ever be an objective war commission and report on the 44 day war?

Benyamin (01:04:11):

Frankly speaking, I have great doubt because everything is so much politicized.

Benyamin (01:04:15):

Okay, let's assume we have a new government after parliamentary elections.

Benyamin (01:04:19):

And new government starts a new investigation.

Benyamin (01:04:23):

But again, because the new government will be mostly,

Benyamin (01:04:26):

we may assume, comprised of people who are criticizing the current government,

Benyamin (01:04:30):

even accusing them of being traitors,

Benyamin (01:04:33):

then if someone will say,

Benyamin (01:04:34):

okay,

Benyamin (01:04:35):

but this is also politicized.

Benyamin (01:04:37):

So unfortunately, in this type of things,

Benyamin (01:04:40):

I'm afraid probably you need 100 years when all living in their time,

Benyamin (01:04:45):

including their children,

Benyamin (01:04:47):

will be dead and maybe their grandchildren will start to discuss

Benyamin (01:04:51):

issues.

Benyamin (01:04:52):

Because in all these sensitive issues,

Benyamin (01:04:55):

like for example,

Benyamin (01:04:57):

there were a lot of controversies starting from like 2001.

Benyamin (01:05:00):

I think recently Tucker Carlson published something on 2001 attack,

Benyamin (01:05:04):

yes, when he put doubts on official US version that this was organized by Al-Qaeda or

Benyamin (01:05:08):

whatever.

Benyamin (01:05:09):

But again, everything is politicized.

Benyamin (01:05:10):

You may believe Tucker Carlson

Benyamin (01:05:12):

I may believe official version,

Benyamin (01:05:14):

someone may believe that this was organized hell knows by whom,

Benyamin (01:05:17):

but everyone has a feeling that you will never know the whole truth if you are not

Benyamin (01:05:23):

like a people,

Benyamin (01:05:24):

like if you are not a president,

Benyamin (01:05:26):

vice president,

Benyamin (01:05:27):

etc.

Benyamin (01:05:28):

So I'm afraid that, again, we need probably like 40-50 years

Asbed (01:05:34):

So by the time we are on our 5,000th episode of Groong, we'll bring this up.

Benyamin (01:05:40):

There will be chances.

Asbed (01:05:42):

I'm going to wrap up our topics here because we're on time.

Asbed (01:05:46):

I'd like to ask each of you if there's something on your mind that you would like

Asbed (01:05:49):

to share with our listeners.

Asbed (01:05:51):

Benjamin, shall we start with you this time?

Benyamin (01:05:54):

Probably not much to say,

Benyamin (01:05:57):

but from one thing that as we will come closer and closer to the election,

Benyamin (01:06:04):

I'm afraid we will see more domestic political tensions, more polarized society.

Benyamin (01:06:11):

And let's hope that at the end of the day,

Benyamin (01:06:16):

we will be able to pass this period with no losses or at least less losses.

Benyamin (01:06:21):

Let's put it this way.

Hovik (01:06:23):

Hovig, what's on your mind?

Hovik (01:06:25):

There was some news today that Arman Tatoyan has announced his decision to enter politics.

Hovik (01:06:33):

He is seen mostly as someone who's not affiliated with the former leaders of Armenia.

Hovik (01:06:39):

And even though I...

Hovik (01:06:41):

I don't believe that the entire reason or problem with the opposition is,

Hovik (01:06:47):

you know, that they're former.

Hovik (01:06:48):

It's nice to see a fresh face in politics.

Hovik (01:06:52):

Yeah,

Hovik (01:06:53):

I'm not sure which force he'll be working with,

Hovik (01:06:56):

but finally,

Hovik (01:06:58):

Tatoyan has said that he will enter politics.

Hovik (01:07:01):

So this was a long time coming, I think, and for a long time he was avoiding it.

Asbed (01:07:05):

And we'll be watching everyone in the coming months.

Asbed (01:07:09):

Let's leave it there today.

Asbed (01:07:10):

Thank you so much, Benyamin, for joining us today.

Asbed (01:07:12):

We appreciate your time and insight.

Benyamin (01:07:14):

Thank you. Thank you for having me.

Benyamin (01:07:16):

Thank you. Bye-bye.

Asbed (01:07:18):

Okay.

Asbed (01:07:19):

Well, that was our Week in Review recorded on October 6, 2025.

Asbed (01:07:23):

We were talking with Dr.

Asbed (01:07:24):

Benyamin Bogosian,

Asbed (01:07:25):

who is a senior fellow at APRI Armenia,

Asbed (01:07:28):

a Yerevan-based think tank.

Asbed (01:07:30):

He's also the chairman of the Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies.

Hovik (01:07:35):

Thanks for watching, everyone.

Hovik (01:07:36):

We hope that you do appreciate our efforts to present this news to you.

Hovik (01:07:42):

It truly is a not insignificant amount of work on both of our ends.

Hovik (01:07:47):

And Asbed, do you know how else people can show their appreciation for what we do?

Asbed (01:07:52):

I do.

Asbed (01:07:53):

Let us know.

Hovik (01:07:55):

and if you of course are willing and able to, please consider throwing some coffee our way.

Asbed (01:08:06):

Pick either Patreon or buy me a coffee and become a sustaining member.

Asbed (01:08:11):

That's our preferred way for you to do it.

Asbed (01:08:14):

If you become a sustaining member, you'll make a monthly donation of your choosing.

Asbed (01:08:18):

Now, if you can't do it, we understand.

Asbed (01:08:22):

It's really important for us that when you listen to our shows,

Asbed (01:08:26):

you like our shows,

Asbed (01:08:28):

you comment on them because that raises our profile and you can share them with

Asbed (01:08:33):

your friends so that if they find it interesting,

Asbed (01:08:35):

they can join our channel.

Asbed (01:08:36):

And of course, this is very important.

Asbed (01:08:39):

Join our channels, become subscribers to our channels.

Hovik (01:08:44):

And in case any of you have a podcast editing experience,

Hovik (01:08:49):

due to a number of donations that have been made in the past few months,

Hovik (01:08:53):

we are now able to think about investing some more money into video editing

Hovik (01:09:00):

software that will...

Hovik (01:09:01):

hopefully dramatically reduce the time we spent on doing this,

Hovik (01:09:05):

which is right now is just using Audacity and iMovie.

Hovik (01:09:09):

There you go.

Hovik (01:09:10):

We revealed the secret.

Asbed (01:09:11):

Hovik spent his weekend doing a whole bunch of research.

Asbed (01:09:14):

Actually, he found out that he's not very satisfied with the options.

Hovik (01:09:18):

So neither of the options that I looked at worked for our needs.

Hovik (01:09:23):

So we'll continue.

Hovik (01:09:24):

I have a bunch of more software to go through, but

Hovik (01:09:28):

Just the fact that we have received the donations allows us to think that maybe in

Hovik (01:09:31):

the coming months,

Hovik (01:09:32):

we'll be able to spare a little bit to invest in software that can help us do the

Hovik (01:09:37):

editing.

Asbed (01:09:37):

We're still barely at a quarter of where we think we should be.

Asbed (01:09:41):

But anyway, I'm Asbed Bedrossian in Los Angeles.

Hovik (01:09:45):

And I'm Hovik Manucharyan, temporarily in Los Angeles.

Hovik (01:09:48):

We'll talk to you next week.

Asbed (01:09:51):

Bye-bye.

People on this episode

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Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
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Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
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Benyamin Poghosyan

Guest

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