Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Hrant Mikaelian - OTS & CIS summits, Trump-Aliyev Tensions, Armenia Opposition for 2026  | Ep 478, Oct 12, 2025

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OTS & CIS summits, Trump-Aliyev Tensions, Armenia Opposition for 2026

Groong Week in Review - October 12, 2025

Topics

  • Aliyev pushes “Zangezur Corridor” at OTS
  • Pashinyan pitches “Trump Route” at CIS
  • Putin–Aliyev meeting eases tensions
  • Armenia’s opposition gears up for 2026

Guest

Hosts


Episode 478 | Recorded: October 14, 2025

https://podcasts.groong.org/478


Subscribe and follow us everywhere you are: linktr.ee/groong

Hovik (00:00:06):

Trump's corridor, Aliyev's route, Kocharyan's railway, and Karapetyan's jailhouse movement.

Hovik (00:00:12):

Everyone is trying to redraw Armenia.

Hovik (00:00:15):

So who really is in control?

Asbed (00:00:17):

Hello, and welcome to the Armenian news network, Groong.

Asbed (00:00:21):

We will be discussing these topics and more on this Week in Review episode for October 12, 2025.

Asbed (00:00:28):

Today, we're talking with Hrant Mikaelian, an interdisciplinary researcher in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:00:33):

Hello, Hrant.

Asbed (00:00:34):

Welcome to the Groong podcast.

Hrant (00:00:36):

Thank you.

Hovik (00:00:38):

All right, let's begin with the CIS summit in Dushanbe.

Hovik (00:00:46):

The Commonwealth of Independent States,

Hovik (00:00:48):

formerly Soviet states essentially,

Hovik (00:00:50):

held its summit in Dushanbe on October 10th.

Hovik (00:00:55):

Some minor outcomes,

Hovik (00:00:57):

Turkmenistan assumed the 2026 chairmanship,

Hovik (00:01:00):

CIS Plus format was approved,

Hovik (00:01:03):

and SCO was admitted as an observer into that CIS Plus format.

Hovik (00:01:09):

A number of border security counter-terrorism military cooperation agreements were

Hovik (00:01:12):

signed or extended until 2030.

Hovik (00:01:15):

And also energy deals,

Hovik (00:01:18):

trade deals and transport,

Hovik (00:01:20):

humanitarian issues and digitalization agreements were also discussed.

Hovik (00:01:27):

Pashinyan attended and he tried to sell the CIS on the TRIPP,

Hovik (00:01:32):

the Trump route,

Hovik (00:01:34):

as a means of achieving peace and prosperity in the South Caucasus and what he

Hovik (00:01:40):

terms as achievements from the August 8th meeting at the White House.

Hovik (00:01:45):

As a result,

Hovik (00:01:46):

Pashinyan said that the South Caucasus would unlock all transportation in Central

Hovik (00:01:51):

Asia and so on.

Hovik (00:01:53):

Can you tell us what you see as the main outcome of the CIS summit?

Hovik (00:01:57):

What was the reaction about TRIPP from CIS members and

Hovik (00:02:04):

I mean, we saw that episode between Pashinyan and Putin when Putin tried to quiz Pashinyan

Hovik (00:02:11):

on the trade volume between Armenia and Russia,

Hovik (00:02:14):

and it was pretty embarrassing to watch that.

Hovik (00:02:17):

But I want to take your opinion on the whole summit.

Hrant (00:02:24):

Well, I will start from the last point.

Hrant (00:02:27):

I mean,

Hrant (00:02:28):

the difference between statistical measures of different countries,

Hrant (00:02:32):

even regarding the same issue,

Hrant (00:02:34):

I mean,

Hrant (00:02:35):

the mutual trade,

Hrant (00:02:37):

is frequently occurring.

Hrant (00:02:39):

So it's not a big deal, frankly speaking.

Hrant (00:02:42):

But what was obvious that Putin was trying to portray Armenian-Russian relations as

Hrant (00:02:47):

bigger and Pashinyan was trying to portray it as smaller scale relations,

Hrant (00:02:54):

which implies that Putin wants to deepen these relations and Pashinyan wants to

Hrant (00:02:58):

decrease their size.

Hrant (00:02:59):

And that's obvious also from other statements.

Hrant (00:03:02):

That's just one small episode which shows the direction of the politics.

Hrant (00:03:06):

Now, apart from that,

Hrant (00:03:08):

basically,

Hrant (00:03:09):

CIS countries, namely Russia and Belarus,

Hrant (00:03:11):

first,

Hrant (00:03:12):

they are approaching this TRIPP as something they could not,

Hrant (00:03:17):

they don't like,

Hrant (00:03:19):

but they cannot stop.

Hrant (00:03:21):

So at this time, they just perceive it as purely informational thing.

Hrant (00:03:27):

So, okay, this happens.

Hrant (00:03:29):

We don't like it.

Hrant (00:03:30):

We don't intervene.

Hrant (00:03:33):

At least until the end of the Ukrainian war, Russia won't intervene in South Caucasus affairs.

Hrant (00:03:39):

That's what I can see from Russian media and political narrative and from

Hrant (00:03:45):

statements of their experts.

Hrant (00:03:47):

So as of now,

Hrant (00:03:48):

I think Russia is,

Hrant (00:03:50):

you know,

Hrant (00:03:53):

on the side of narrative is negative towards this project,

Hrant (00:03:56):

but on the action side,

Hrant (00:03:58):

it's neutral.

Hovik (00:04:00):

in 2018 this whole saga Armenia's saga started well in it really started in 2018

Hovik (00:04:09):

may i would say but in uh later that year they also had a Dushanbe agreement and

Hovik (00:04:16):

there was this famous um meeting between pashinyan and aliyev

Hovik (00:04:22):

in an elevator and that was the first tete-a-tete meeting between the two,

Hovik (00:04:29):

at least recorded by journalists and some serious some serious agreements between

Hovik (00:04:36):

Pashinyan and

Hovik (00:04:39):

Aliyev were reached in order to allow Pashinyan to consolidate power at home and

Hovik (00:04:46):

not to shoot on the borders and then until the 2020 war started.

Hovik (00:04:50):

I wonder what you thought about the meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev this time in Dushanbe.

Hrant (00:04:57):

Okay, first of all,

Hrant (00:04:58):

they have met again and again for a very short period of time,

Hrant (00:05:02):

just to show that they are in very close relationship,

Hrant (00:05:06):

at least with each other.

Hrant (00:05:07):

So that's the first thing.

Hrant (00:05:08):

Second, regarding the 2018 meeting,

Hrant (00:05:11):

I think what is very important to highlight as of today is that by that time they

Hrant (00:05:17):

already had a deep negotiating track,

Hrant (00:05:21):

as Azerbaijan published just before the war through Arsen Kharatyan,

Hrant (00:05:27):

and they have agreed on the principles of further politics before this meeting.

Hrant (00:05:34):

This meeting was a

Hrant (00:05:36):

or was a mean to formalize or to present the new policy by Pashinyan.

Hrant (00:05:41):

And this policy was rejection of the older policy, which implied guarantees.

Hrant (00:05:46):

And now,

Hrant (00:05:47):

starting from guarantees between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Artsakh,

Hrant (00:05:52):

which were fixed in St.

Hrant (00:05:55):

Petersburg, Geneva, and Vienna,

Hrant (00:06:00):

switching to Dushanbe agreements, which were just purely between the sides.

Hrant (00:06:05):

So first he removed the mediators and he removed guarantees and opened the way to

Hrant (00:06:11):

the war,

Hrant (00:06:12):

which is similar to the current situation.

Hrant (00:06:14):

He says, if we don't do anything, Azerbaijan won't do anything as well.

Hrant (00:06:19):

So in reality, there is a process of diplomatic, political and military disarmament of Armenia.

Hrant (00:06:27):

which was highlighted in 2018.

Hrant (00:06:29):

And I think the parallel here just can be drawn to the way that,

Hrant (00:06:35):

in reality,

Hrant (00:06:36):

the same process is ongoing,

Hrant (00:06:37):

but on another level.

Hrant (00:06:39):

And what is also important,

Hrant (00:06:40):

why both Pashinyan and Aliyev,

Hrant (00:06:42):

who were,

Hrant (00:06:44):

you know, blaming Russia for everything bad possible,

Hrant (00:06:46):

came to Dushanbe and had great meetings with Putin,

Hrant (00:06:51):

it's very important.

Hrant (00:06:52):

Because by that time, they needed to show to the West that they are against Russia,

Hrant (00:06:56):

to have that meeting in Washington now since they had it they can try to restore

Hrant (00:07:01):

relations with Russia partially and since Russian diplomacy is you know very uh

Hrant (00:07:06):

very you know poorly uh planning they just perceive it as the change in policy

Hrant (00:07:12):

which in reality not change in policy but you know change in current approach

Hovik (00:07:18):

So and for those who are interested we talked more about the infamous Dushanbe

Hovik (00:07:23):

elevator meeting two weeks ago when we talked about the 2020 war and to add some

Hovik (00:07:29):

more context when you said Vienna and St.

Hovik (00:07:32):

Petersburg you mean the agreements to establish monitoring mechanisms across the entire

Hovik (00:07:41):

contact line right something that was on the table after the 2016 war that Armenia

Hovik (00:07:47):

fought hard to achieve diplomatically and Pashinyan essentially negotiated away

Hovik (00:07:53):

based on his trust of Aliyev and saying that or you know whatever you know his

Hovik (00:07:57):

assurances that Aliyev won't shoot

Hrant (00:07:59):

Yeah. And what is most important here, it's the change of the logic of negotiations.

Hrant (00:08:04):

So in first case,

Hrant (00:08:06):

in case of that agreements,

Hrant (00:08:07):

we had guarantees of peace or we were working at guarantees of peace.

Hrant (00:08:12):

And now it's just trust between Pashinyan and Aliyev, which we have seen how it worked.

Hrant (00:08:16):

And basically, we are heading in the same direction right now.

Asbed (00:08:20):

One of the key outcomes of the CIS was a meeting between Putin and Ilham Aliyev,

Asbed (00:08:25):

as a matter of fact.

Asbed (00:08:26):

Since December 2024,

Asbed (00:08:28):

Russian-Azerbaijani relations have deteriorated significantly,

Asbed (00:08:33):

and that is following the AZAL flight crash.

Asbed (00:08:36):

At the time,

Asbed (00:08:37):

Putin had given a general apology and proposed compensation to Azerbaijan,

Asbed (00:08:41):

but Aliyev,

Asbed (00:08:42):

for some reason,

Asbed (00:08:43):

didn't accept that and wanted more.

Asbed (00:08:46):

Relations having reached the nadir,

Asbed (00:08:48):

this meeting was clearly an opportunity for Putin to further reach out with an

Asbed (00:08:52):

olive branch and for Aliyev to hear what he needed to hear in order to turn the

Asbed (00:08:56):

corner in relations with Russia.

Asbed (00:08:59):

Putin explained.

Asbed (00:09:01):

how the crash happened and reiterated Russia's responsibility for the crash.

Asbed (00:09:06):

And so the Azeri media amplified by the Western media were quick to ascribe full

Asbed (00:09:11):

diplomatic victory to Aliyev for the so-called apology.

Asbed (00:09:15):

And reportedly interstate relations have started to thaw at this point in time.

Asbed (00:09:20):

As a matter of fact, Hikmet Hajiyev,

Asbed (00:09:22):

A foreign policy assistant to Aliyev said Azerbaijan accepts Russia's explanations

Asbed (00:09:29):

and he hopes legal pressures on Azeri workers in Russia will begin to cease.

Asbed (00:09:35):

Had relations between the countries sunk so low that it was no longer comfortable

Asbed (00:09:40):

for them, who needed this meeting more?

Asbed (00:09:42):

Was it Putin or was it Aliyev?

Hrant (00:09:44):

I think this is a case where when it was beneficial for both sides and both sides

Hrant (00:09:49):

wanted this to happen.

Hrant (00:09:51):

And the reason behind it is that,

Hrant (00:09:56):

yes, in reality,

Hrant (00:09:57):

the relations went too low,

Hrant (00:10:00):

but both sides had,

Hrant (00:10:01):

you know,

Hrant (00:10:02):

own rationale for hitting that low.

Hrant (00:10:08):

So Azerbaijan had to restore relations with the West because after ethnic cleansing

Hrant (00:10:12):

in Artsakh,

Hrant (00:10:15):

United States and partially European Union have decreased factual level of

Hrant (00:10:20):

relations with Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan was in half diplomatic blockade,

Hrant (00:10:25):

especially Aliyev himself.

Hrant (00:10:27):

So he saw Trump as an opportunity to break through this diplomatic blockade,

Hrant (00:10:34):

because first,

Hrant (00:10:35):

Trump does not care about anything,

Hrant (00:10:37):

and the second, because he doesn't know about anything.

Hrant (00:10:39):

He just needs a good photo, which Aliyev was ready to provide.

Hrant (00:10:44):

That's first thing.

Hrant (00:10:46):

Second thing, Aliyev knew that the West has interests in providing,

Hrant (00:10:51):

especially Anglo-American side,

Hrant (00:10:54):

in providing

Hrant (00:10:55):

EU with Central Asian resources,

Hrant (00:10:58):

and they presented,

Hrant (00:11:01):

Azerbaijan and Turkey have presented so-called Zangezur Corridor as a mean to

Hrant (00:11:06):

realize that.

Hrant (00:11:07):

So, I mean,

Hrant (00:11:08):

the Turkish-Azerbaijani narrative about the corridor is one thing,

Hrant (00:11:13):

but the way they present it to Russians,

Hrant (00:11:16):

to Chinese,

Hrant (00:11:17):

and to the West is completely different.

Hrant (00:11:19):

And those three narratives are completely different as well.

Hrant (00:11:22):

And the way it is presented in Armenia is also a completely different thing.

Hrant (00:11:26):

But in reality, he wanted to have this corridor and to have somehow approved it.

Hrant (00:11:31):

And while Pashinyan says it is not a corridor,

Hrant (00:11:34):

we understand that for most of claims which are made on Trump's side,

Hrant (00:11:39):

on Aliyev's side,

Hrant (00:11:40):

and even on Pashinyan's side,

Hrant (00:11:42):

it is a corridor and even extraterritorial one.

Hrant (00:11:46):

So Aliyev got what he wanted from the United States.

Hrant (00:11:50):

And for that, he needed for improvement of relations with the West.

Hrant (00:11:54):

He needed to spoil relations with Russia for some time to show that he is anti-Russian.

Hrant (00:11:59):

So he is one to whom they should work.

Hrant (00:12:05):

And then after he had this meeting in Washington,

Hrant (00:12:08):

he could start slowly and gradually improving relations with Russia.

Hrant (00:12:12):

That's what he is doing.

Hrant (00:12:13):

Now, Russians were completely reactive at that point because they have seen Azerbaijan

Hrant (00:12:18):

is pushing hard for apologies.

Hrant (00:12:23):

Now, Russian approach is a bit different.

Hrant (00:12:25):

Russia was responsive.

Hrant (00:12:27):

And when they saw that Azerbaijan is starting demanding apologies,

Hrant (00:12:33):

which Russia is not very good at,

Hrant (00:12:35):

they just started hitting back

Hrant (00:12:39):

and pushing on,

Hrant (00:12:41):

pressuring Azerbaijani pro-Aliyev business people in Moscow and in other cities of

Hrant (00:12:46):

Russia.

Hrant (00:12:47):

So they started decreasing Azerbaijan's influence and hitting Azerbaijani incomes,

Hrant (00:12:53):

which are pretty big from Russia in reality.

Hrant (00:12:55):

It's not only oil,

Hrant (00:12:56):

there are lots of things which are connected to Russia,

Hrant (00:12:59):

and there is hard cash as well,

Hrant (00:13:01):

because they have hit Azerbaijani

Hrant (00:13:05):

uh cash flow as well and by the way that that it was permanent in in many cases so

Hrant (00:13:12):

uh Azerbaijan needed to improve that but russians also because uh because

Hrant (00:13:17):

confronting Azerbaijan means confronting turkey confronting Israel and to some

Hrant (00:13:21):

extent even even the west so they needed to avoid the real conflict with Azerbaijan

Hrant (00:13:28):

And Putin is very pragmatic here.

Hrant (00:13:30):

I mean, Putin on his side does not look very much on how things look.

Hrant (00:13:36):

It doesn't look good because Russia is much, much stronger than Azerbaijan.

Hrant (00:13:40):

But for Putin, the apology is not very expensive.

Hrant (00:13:45):

So ultimately, he decided that if we are able to improve relations,

Hrant (00:13:49):

And by the way,

Hrant (00:13:50):

the first signal came from Aliyev because he congratulated Putin with his birthday.

Hrant (00:13:54):

So he decided to, you know, the apology is not very expensive.

Hrant (00:13:59):

Let's do it and get back to this issue again after the end of the Ukrainian war.

Asbed (00:14:05):

Harant, you said that there were disagreements at the CIS meeting between Putin and

Asbed (00:14:08):

Pashinyan about the state of trade relations between the two countries.

Asbed (00:14:14):

Is there a parallel between the kind of pressure that Russia has put on Azeri

Asbed (00:14:19):

workers and now maybe some of the Armenian truckers are experiencing difficulties

Asbed (00:14:25):

because of so-called immigration laws and overstaying,

Asbed (00:14:28):

let's say, 90 days in the country?

Asbed (00:14:31):

Do these problems that the truckers are having reflect the problems with the

Asbed (00:14:35):

relations between Russia and Armenia?

Hrant (00:14:38):

I would look at it from two sides.

Hrant (00:14:41):

First is internal Russia's change, and second is Russian-Armenian relation.

Hrant (00:14:46):

Now, on the background of, you know,

Hrant (00:14:49):

this Russian-Ukrainian war, we see that anti-migrant sentiments in Russia are increasing.

Hrant (00:14:56):

So the war is somehow democratizing Russia,

Hrant (00:14:59):

because when the civilians and when the civil society and businesses are paying a

Hrant (00:15:06):

war tax,

Hrant (00:15:07):

be it just through draft or through increased budget pressure or something else,

Hrant (00:15:13):

the state has to be more responsive towards low-level demand.

Hrant (00:15:18):

Anti-migrant sentiments in Russia have been present since the 90s,

Hrant (00:15:22):

but the authoritarian Russian state would not listen to those.

Hrant (00:15:26):

And now it became more responsive.

Hrant (00:15:28):

We see that this extent of migration from the south in Russia is as big as in the

Hrant (00:15:36):

European Union.

Hrant (00:15:37):

The difference is in approach of the state.

Hrant (00:15:40):

In Russia, migrants do not receive social benefits.

Hrant (00:15:44):

But anyway, anti-migrant sentiment has started affecting the policy.

Hrant (00:15:48):

And we see the parallel between Russia and Europe here is rather apparent.

Hrant (00:15:53):

So anti-migrant laws or laws limiting or hardening migration are

Hrant (00:16:02):

being imposed lately rather frequently.

Hrant (00:16:08):

Every other month you see some new law or some new regulation in Russia.

Hrant (00:16:12):

So it is, to the big extent, it's a continuation of internal development in Russia.

Hrant (00:16:19):

But of course, those

Hrant (00:16:22):

that are targeting especially Armenians,

Hrant (00:16:25):

I think that could be connected to the politics as well.

Hrant (00:16:28):

So the pressure towards Armenians is not as big as towards Azerbaijanis,

Hrant (00:16:32):

because unless Armenia is leaving EU,

Hrant (00:16:37):

the pressure will be very limited.

Asbed (00:16:39):

You mean the EAEU, the Eurasian Economic Union?

Hrant (00:16:42):

Yeah, Eurasian Economic Union.

Hrant (00:16:45):

But at the same time,

Hrant (00:16:47):

Russian experts are already discussing that if Armenia continues deepening

Hrant (00:16:50):

relations with the West,

Hrant (00:16:51):

they might force Armenia to make a choice between EU and EU.

Hrant (00:16:55):

So ultimately, Armenia might have to make a choice.

Hrant (00:17:00):

But unless it happened...

Hrant (00:17:03):

Russian,

Hrant (00:17:04):

you know,

Hrant (00:17:05):

pressure on Armenian businesses,

Hrant (00:17:07):

workers, and so on will be limited in scope,

Hrant (00:17:09):

but it might occur,

Hrant (00:17:11):

and sometimes it does.

Hovik (00:17:13):

Hrant,

Hovik (00:17:14):

days before the CIS summit,

Hovik (00:17:17):

actually from October 6 to 7,

Hovik (00:17:19):

many of the same leaders were in Gabala,

Hovik (00:17:23):

Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:17:24):

for the 12th summit of the Organization of Turkic States.

Hovik (00:17:28):

I think it's important to highlight that

Hovik (00:17:32):

This organization driven by Turkey is trying to unify all the Turkic speaking states.

Hovik (00:17:39):

And, you know, it's not just language.

Hovik (00:17:41):

It's not just culture.

Hovik (00:17:42):

They're talking about military cooperation.

Hovik (00:17:46):

So the OTS plus format was adopted.

Hovik (00:17:50):

And Turkmenistan was given observer status.

Hovik (00:17:55):

They, you know, had parallel, essentially almost parallel to what CIS did.

Hovik (00:18:02):

And they also affirmed solidarity with the Turkish separate people.

Hovik (00:18:09):

including Northern Cyprus as part of the OTS Plus, and so on and so forth.

Hovik (00:18:16):

But of note, I think, was that during this OTS summit,

Hovik (00:18:22):

Aliyev spoke much more freely about the so-called Zangezur corridor.

Hovik (00:18:27):

He pushed the term corridor.

Hovik (00:18:33):

At the summit in Dushanbe, it didn't seem like that he was pushing that term that much.

Hovik (00:18:38):

But I wanted to get your thought why Aliyev chose this difference in tactics in

Hovik (00:18:44):

terms of how to present it.

Hrant (00:18:46):

First of all, I think summit in Gabala was much bigger and deeper than summit in Dushanbe.

Hrant (00:18:53):

And I think that Turkish states are deepening their integration very quickly.

Hrant (00:18:59):

And I want to highlight the difference between the approach of Central Asian states

Hrant (00:19:04):

and Turkey plus Azerbaijan in this matter,

Hrant (00:19:08):

because for the states of Central Asia,

Hrant (00:19:10):

basically the relations with Turkey is more or less the same thing as for Georgia,

Hrant (00:19:17):

Ukraine,

Hrant (00:19:18):

Armenia, or Moldova,

Hrant (00:19:20):

was the European integration.

Hrant (00:19:22):

So they want new technologies, they want economic improvements, they want new markets.

Hrant (00:19:27):

That's what they want.

Hrant (00:19:28):

Now, what Turkey is really bringing there is a war.

Hrant (00:19:32):

Basically, the same which European integration brought to these four countries, which I meant.

Hrant (00:19:37):

Well, first, Moldova has skipped the war yet, but it is approaching.

Hrant (00:19:43):

The rest got the war.

Hrant (00:19:45):

Now, there, I'm afraid Turkey is bringing the war as well.

Hrant (00:19:49):

Why am I saying that?

Hrant (00:19:50):

Lately,

Hrant (00:19:51):

we have heard how Pashinyan said that the Meghri corridor will be used to supply

Hrant (00:19:57):

weapons as well.

Hrant (00:19:59):

So he himself said that,

Hrant (00:20:01):

which means Turkey is already planning to supply weapons to the Central Asian

Hrant (00:20:06):

states and then create conflicts there,

Hrant (00:20:10):

including the conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and conflict between

Hrant (00:20:14):

Kazakhstan and Russia.

Hrant (00:20:15):

That's what Turkey is planning to do.

Hrant (00:20:17):

Now, that's one important story.

Hrant (00:20:20):

Another important story is that if we look at public opinion in Turkey,

Hrant (00:20:27):

in Central Asian states.

Hrant (00:20:28):

We will see that in many Central Asian states, people

Hrant (00:20:33):

perceive Turkish influence as unwanted.

Hrant (00:20:38):

So it's more than they would like to see it.

Hrant (00:20:41):

But at the same time, Turkey is very consistent with its diplomacy,

Hrant (00:20:44):

with its policy,

Hrant (00:20:45):

with its economic presence and further military presence,

Hrant (00:20:49):

while the other sides,

Hrant (00:20:51):

including China and Russia,

Hrant (00:20:53):

are much more passive.

Hrant (00:20:54):

So even though there is no initiative on the side of Central Asian states,

Hrant (00:21:00):

the initiative always comes from Ankara.

Hrant (00:21:02):

Again, we see still the integration is deepening and deepening.

Hrant (00:21:07):

Again,

Hrant (00:21:08):

very similar to the so-called European integration,

Hrant (00:21:11):

which on the contrary to the Western narrative,

Hrant (00:21:13):

the initiative always came from Brussels and Washington,

Hrant (00:21:16):

not from Kiev or Tbilisi or especially Yerevan or Kishinev.

Hrant (00:21:21):

So now, again, this has a geopolitical dimension.

Hrant (00:21:26):

And we have seen how Uzbekistan has joined the so-called Sushi Declaration,

Hrant (00:21:32):

which is effectively a basis for creation of a unitary Turan state.

Hrant (00:21:40):

And that's one thing.

Hrant (00:21:41):

Another thing, they are discussing the new joint Turkish alphabet, Turkic alphabet.

Hrant (00:21:48):

So again, the creation of one nation.

Asbed (00:21:54):

I believe they're adopting the Latin alphabet for the Turkish language to be used, correct?

Hrant (00:22:00):

Well,

Hrant (00:22:01):

frankly speaking,

Hrant (00:22:02):

I don't know exactly how it will end,

Hrant (00:22:04):

but at least they want to unify it across all the countries.

Asbed (00:22:07):

That's right.

Asbed (00:22:08):

Now,

Hrant (00:22:08):

Kazakhstan is not very welcoming this initiative,

Hrant (00:22:12):

but again,

Hrant (00:22:13):

with the dedication Turkey has,

Hrant (00:22:16):

it might happen sooner or later.

Hrant (00:22:19):

So it's not,

Hrant (00:22:20):

again,

Hrant (00:22:21):

being done by Central Asian countries,

Hrant (00:22:23):

but they are the object of this policy,

Hrant (00:22:25):

not the subject in reality.

Hrant (00:22:27):

Another thing which is important is that now Turkey is releasing some regulations

Hrant (00:22:34):

towards these countries.

Hrant (00:22:37):

So at the same time, when Russia is hardening immigration from Central Asian states,

Hrant (00:22:45):

Turkey is easing it.

Hrant (00:22:47):

So Turkey has declared that it will treat foreigners from Azerbaijan and Turkey

Hrant (00:22:53):

countries of Central Asia as locals,

Hrant (00:22:57):

not foreigners.

Hrant (00:22:59):

I don't understand yet how it will implement on the judicial level,

Hrant (00:23:04):

but at least this is a political statement which we have for now.

Hrant (00:23:09):

So as of now,

Hrant (00:23:10):

we see that deepening relations between Central Asian countries and Turkey is very

Hrant (00:23:16):

quick.

Hrant (00:23:17):

And on the CIS summit on the country, nothing real happened.

Hrant (00:23:21):

Just pure declaration, negotiations, and just joint photo, nothing else.

Hrant (00:23:28):

So I think Turkish Council is,

Hrant (00:23:32):

as of now,

Hrant (00:23:33):

a much more united organization than at least CIS,

Hrant (00:23:39):

not to say about CSTO or even Eurasian Economic Union.

Asbed (00:23:44):

Okay, let's come to the Armenian domestic scene for a change.

Asbed (00:23:48):

As Armenia moves closer to the 2026 parliamentary elections,

Asbed (00:23:52):

domestic politics are becoming more active and competitive.

Asbed (00:23:55):

Former President Robert Kocharyan held a three-hour press conference signaling

Asbed (00:24:00):

Hayastan Alliance's intention to focus on the elections as the key political event

Asbed (00:24:05):

of 2026.

Asbed (00:24:07):

Arman Tatoyan, former HR ombudsman of Armenia, also is entering politics.

Asbed (00:24:12):

His movement is called Wings of Unity.

Asbed (00:24:14):

And according to politician Suren Surenyants,

Asbed (00:24:17):

Prosperous Armenia,

Asbed (00:24:18):

headed by Gagik Tsarukyan,

Asbed (00:24:20):

will also participate in the 2026 elections in partnership with Surenyants'

Asbed (00:24:25):

Democratic Alternative Party.

Asbed (00:24:27):

Billionaire businessman Samvel Garabedian's civic movement In Our Way,

Asbed (00:24:31):

Merzevov,

Asbed (00:24:32):

drew attention with a major rally in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:24:35):

And in Vagharshapat,

Asbed (00:24:36):

the city where Etchmiadzin,

Asbed (00:24:38):

the seat of the mother sea,

Asbed (00:24:39):

is located,

Asbed (00:24:41):

local elections are set to test the national mood.

Asbed (00:24:44):

Nine parties are fielding candidates,

Asbed (00:24:46):

including the ARF Dashnaktsutyun,

Asbed (00:24:48):

Mayr Hayastan,

Asbed (00:24:49):

that's mother Armenia,

Asbed (00:24:51):

that's not Hayastan Dashing,

Asbed (00:24:52):

and Artur Vanetsyan's homeland party.

Asbed (00:24:55):

So many observers see this race as an early indicator of the dynamics that could shape 2026.

Hovik (00:25:02):

So can I suggest that we talk about In Our Way or Mer Dzevov?

Hovik (00:25:07):

So from his jail cell,

Hovik (00:25:08):

businessman Samvel Karapetyan has launched a new political movement called In Our

Hovik (00:25:13):

Way.

Hovik (00:25:14):

which recently held a large rally in Yerevan.

Hovik (00:25:18):

The event drew wide attention,

Hovik (00:25:19):

featuring a video address from Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Açemoglu,

Hovik (00:25:25):

who voiced support for the movement's call for political and economic change in

Hovik (00:25:30):

Armenia.

Hovik (00:25:31):

The rally underscored growing discontent with Nikol Pashinyan's government and

Hovik (00:25:36):

signaled the emergence of a new opposition force that could shape the landscape in

Hovik (00:25:40):

2026.

Hovik (00:25:41):

It's worth noting that In Our Way is not yet registered as a political party,

Hovik (00:25:45):

though Narek Karapetyan has promised to do so by the end of 2025 or early 2026

Hovik (00:25:52):

before the elections.

Hovik (00:25:53):

So they are clearly intending to participate.

Hovik (00:25:56):

Harant, what are your impressions on the movement so far and the entry of Samvel Karapetyan

Hovik (00:26:01):

into politics in general?

Hrant (00:26:04):

Okay, so in the beginning,

Hrant (00:26:07):

this movement has drawn many hopes in the society,

Hrant (00:26:11):

and at some point,

Hrant (00:26:13):

by the end of August,

Hrant (00:26:16):

the hopes were as high that it got at least the intention to vote,

Hrant (00:26:22):

which we can see from the polls,

Hrant (00:26:24):

opinion polls,

Hrant (00:26:26):

It overpassed,

Hrant (00:26:27):

very quickly overpassed Kocharyan's Armenian bloc and even got more support than

Hrant (00:26:33):

Kocharyan's bloc ever had,

Hrant (00:26:34):

even joined with the Republican Party.

Hrant (00:26:36):

So currently parliamentary parties have less support,

Hrant (00:26:41):

no, they ever had less support than Samuel Karapetian's party has.

Hrant (00:26:45):

But at the same time,

Hrant (00:26:47):

And now they have,

Hrant (00:26:49):

you know, somehow stopped growing because they already gathered most of discontent opposition

Hrant (00:26:57):

supporters who have switched to support this party.

Hrant (00:27:02):

And even some of the possible voters came back to Kocharyan because their beginning

Hrant (00:27:08):

was much more,

Hrant (00:27:09):

you know, promising than what they are doing now,

Hrant (00:27:11):

frankly speaking.

Hrant (00:27:13):

What I mean specifically, first of all,

Hrant (00:27:16):

Samuel Karapetian is being jailed.

Hrant (00:27:19):

And so,

Hrant (00:27:20):

according to the polls,

Hrant (00:27:21):

majority or at least half of the population thinks he is unlawfully in jail.

Hrant (00:27:28):

So he should be released free.

Hrant (00:27:30):

And, you know,

Hrant (00:27:31):

having, for any cause,

Hrant (00:27:32):

having 50% support of the overall population is enough to do whatever you want.

Hrant (00:27:38):

I mean, at least they could gather thousands,

Hrant (00:27:41):

many, many thousands in the streets to force authorities to let him free.

Hrant (00:27:46):

I think the main benchmark of the success of this party is not having some rallies

Hrant (00:27:52):

or something,

Hrant (00:27:53):

some celebrations in Yeravan or Gyumri,

Hrant (00:27:57):

but letting Samvel Karapetyan free.

Hrant (00:28:00):

As of now, they are failing, which is one and very important thing.

Hrant (00:28:04):

Second,

Hrant (00:28:05):

I think they are very strong in,

Hrant (00:28:07):

you know,

Hrant (00:28:08):

economic promises and they are working on that and we see some results and they are

Hrant (00:28:12):

touching some important issues for the population.

Hrant (00:28:15):

But at the same time,

Hrant (00:28:17):

At the same time, what we can see is that they lack political consistency.

Hrant (00:28:22):

That's understandable because this party comes from business,

Hrant (00:28:25):

but you can't win elections only with economic promises.

Hrant (00:28:30):

You need to fill the gap with politics,

Hrant (00:28:31):

especially in foreign politics,

Hrant (00:28:33):

because Pashinyan,

Hrant (00:28:35):

even though it is his weakest point,

Hrant (00:28:37):

he is pushing on foreign political narrative and he is trying to dominate that.

Hrant (00:28:43):

know this party also has to do that it's very important to do that unless they do

Hrant (00:28:48):

that they cannot win so we will see how they will develop but at the same time i

Hrant (00:28:53):

can say that as of now again they are a major political major opposition party and

Hrant (00:28:58):

they have good chances of success why because

Hrant (00:29:03):

If we look what Samvel Karapetyan says and what he was caught for,

Hrant (00:29:07):

that's beyond neutral speaking.

Hrant (00:29:09):

I mean, he was caught for very innocent criticism of Pashinyan's government.

Hrant (00:29:14):

So Pashinyan sees a threat from him and it's very understandable because in a

Hrant (00:29:20):

democratic atmosphere in Armenia,

Hrant (00:29:22):

Pashinyan would lose to Samvel Karapetyan.

Hrant (00:29:25):

So he tries to utilize some authoritarian methods to keep the power.

Hrant (00:29:30):

And even moreover,

Hrant (00:29:32):

Pashinyan said that he expressed his fears or just spread the propaganda that if

Hrant (00:29:37):

opposition wins,

Hrant (00:29:38):

they will kill all of us.

Hrant (00:29:40):

That's what he said some months ago.

Hrant (00:29:43):

So...

Hrant (00:29:45):

So in this atmosphere,

Hrant (00:29:46):

you cannot have democratic elections if the government says that they will kill us.

Hrant (00:29:51):

So and maybe this express his own will from what we see is oppressing any

Hrant (00:29:57):

opposition movement which is there.

Hrant (00:29:59):

So so as of now, we have very many political prisoners.

Hrant (00:30:04):

including two archbishops,

Hrant (00:30:06):

a major opposition representative and a major business person in the Armenian

Hrant (00:30:13):

world,

Hrant (00:30:14):

Amin Samvel Karapetian,

Hrant (00:30:15):

and many other political activists and players.

Hrant (00:30:19):

So by authoritarian methods, authorities are trying to not let this party grow.

Hrant (00:30:26):

But again, this party has enough tools,

Hrant (00:30:28):

at least financial tools,

Hrant (00:30:30):

to utilize it and also to play this game and gain more support.

Hrant (00:30:35):

So as of now, they have a good start.

Hrant (00:30:39):

Now they have somehow stacked and we will see how it will develop.

Hrant (00:30:42):

Now,

Hrant (00:30:43):

going to the other parties,

Hrant (00:30:45):

I think that,

Hrant (00:30:46):

yes, the situation is developing and it's interesting that Arman Tatoyan's new party

Hrant (00:30:54):

has gained more support or more interest than I was expecting.

Hrant (00:30:58):

So it might even try to get into the parliament.

Hrant (00:31:02):

which will be interesting change if they get.

Hrant (00:31:05):

But if they won't,

Hrant (00:31:07):

then it will mean just that they are,

Hrant (00:31:09):

you know,

Hrant (00:31:10):

taking some opposition votes and that Pashinyan will get more seats in the

Hrant (00:31:14):

parliament. So it depends how successful they will be.

Hrant (00:31:17):

And regarding Gagik Tsarukyan,

Hrant (00:31:19):

according to any poll we have seen lately,

Hrant (00:31:22):

he has very big chances of getting into the parliament.

Hrant (00:31:27):

So as of now, it's more or less guaranteed.

Hrant (00:31:29):

So as of now,

Hrant (00:31:31):

It seems that the parliament will have four factions,

Hrant (00:31:34):

which will be the Pashinyan's faction,

Hrant (00:31:37):

then Samvel Karapetian's faction,

Hrant (00:31:40):

then Kocharyan's Armenia Bloc,

Hrant (00:31:43):

and Gagik Tsarukyan's party.

Hrant (00:31:45):

Whoever will be the next, I don't know.

Hrant (00:31:48):

But if so, then there is another question.

Hrant (00:31:51):

Whether opposition parties will form a coalition, formal or informal,

Hrant (00:31:55):

or if they will gather the majority, which is possible.

Hrant (00:31:59):

But as of now,

Hrant (00:32:01):

the landscape we are observing is that as of now,

Hrant (00:32:03):

Pashinyan and the authorities have more or less the same number of possible votes

Hrant (00:32:09):

as the opposition.

Asbed (00:32:10):

Rat, many observers believe that a single unifying figure,

Asbed (00:32:13):

as you mentioned,

Asbed (00:32:14):

is crucial for unifying all of these various opposition parties.

Asbed (00:32:19):

Who can play such a role in the current landscape?

Asbed (00:32:23):

Can Samvel Garabedian actually play that role?

Hrant (00:32:25):

Whether he can or cannot depends on his party and himself, but technically it can only be him.

Hrant (00:32:33):

I mean, if anybody can,

Hrant (00:32:35):

it can be him.

Hrant (00:32:36):

But whether he is capable of that,

Hrant (00:32:38):

we will see,

Hrant (00:32:39):

because first thing he needs to do,

Hrant (00:32:41):

he needs to get out of jail.

Asbed (00:32:44):

Okay, well, that's a crucial thing.

Asbed (00:32:47):

Another issue that we are thinking about is how the Republican Party will meet all

Asbed (00:32:54):

of these challenges,

Asbed (00:32:55):

because they are still,

Asbed (00:32:57):

you know, leaning on the whole impeachment route,

Asbed (00:33:00):

which I'm not sure where they are,

Asbed (00:33:01):

but at least the Hayastan Dashinq has signed on board.

Asbed (00:33:05):

But where's the momentum?

Asbed (00:33:06):

Is that really going to be a real way of proceeding forward?

Hrant (00:33:12):

Frankly speaking, Republican Party this year has lost its ground to a big extent.

Hrant (00:33:17):

Because in the beginning of the year,

Hrant (00:33:19):

they have been slowly but steadily improving their position,

Hrant (00:33:24):

improving the overall performance.

Hrant (00:33:27):

impression of the party in the eyes of voters and increasing their level of public

Hrant (00:33:34):

support and intention of vote.

Hrant (00:33:36):

So they were somewhere between 5% and 7% and even with potential of further growing.

Hrant (00:33:42):

I would not say up to 10%, but maybe up to 8.5% or something.

Hrant (00:33:46):

But then they got stuck into mutual conflict with the Armenia Bloc, with Kocharyan's party.

Hrant (00:33:53):

And this time, I think they have initiated it.

Hrant (00:33:56):

It was very big, unfortunate for both, because both have lost their support levels.

Hrant (00:34:01):

That's the first very important thing.

Hrant (00:34:04):

And I would say even more that this whole impeachment process was,

Hrant (00:34:07):

to a big extent,

Hrant (00:34:08):

the tool to criticize the Armenian bloc,

Hrant (00:34:11):

which I think was rather unhealthy.

Hrant (00:34:14):

Because, I mean, they were saying that, OK, we are starting impeachment.

Hrant (00:34:18):

What do you do?

Hrant (00:34:19):

And the whole narrative was more or less this.

Hrant (00:34:22):

And I think in the situation where opposition has no real chances,

Hrant (00:34:28):

at least before Samvel Karapetian,

Hrant (00:34:29):

to win the election,

Hrant (00:34:32):

you know, starting this internal conflict between the two major factions,

Hrant (00:34:36):

I think that was rather unhealthy on both sides.

Hrant (00:34:39):

And as of now, according to the polls, Republican Party has lost lots of its support for another

Hrant (00:34:49):

for other parties,

Hrant (00:34:50):

including Samvel Karapetyan and possibly even Arman Tatoyan's Wings of Unity party.

Hrant (00:34:59):

So what will happen next, I don't know.

Hrant (00:35:02):

But I think the Republican Party has to struggle to get back its votes if they are

Hrant (00:35:07):

capable of it.

Asbed (00:35:09):

Well, Hrant, you're saying that they have lost some of their votes,

Asbed (00:35:11):

but the reality is that all three parties in parliament have lost a lot of their

Asbed (00:35:15):

votes because the polls show that the undecided voter cannot say what I will do

Asbed (00:35:22):

vote is over 60%.

Asbed (00:35:25):

Two thirds of the people out there just do not know who they would vote for or they

Asbed (00:35:29):

would not vote or they would not participate.

Hrant (00:35:32):

Okay, but let's look how it will distribute in the end.

Hrant (00:35:37):

Well, at least half of those who are undecided will not vote.

Hrant (00:35:41):

So we exclude them because if they are politically passive,

Hrant (00:35:45):

it means that it doesn't matter what do they think.

Hrant (00:35:50):

That's the reality of the election.

Hrant (00:35:52):

Second half will decide to whom they will vote in the last three months before the voting day.

Hrant (00:36:00):

So how will they decide?

Hrant (00:36:02):

There are two ways of distribution.

Hrant (00:36:03):

One, they will distribute the same way as the other, those who are decided.

Hrant (00:36:09):

And the other is that they will join the election.

Hrant (00:36:12):

one or another party which will show the most success in or the most intense

Hrant (00:36:19):

pre-election campaign.

Hrant (00:36:21):

Which last time Pashinyan was very capable of because he was very aggressive, very quick.

Hrant (00:36:26):

And by the way, he had a rather big support from the outside world,

Hrant (00:36:30):

including from Aliyev,

Hrant (00:36:31):

because Aliyev released 15 hostages just before the election.

Hrant (00:36:36):

So Pashinyan got several additional percentages.

Hrant (00:36:39):

And now, by the way, we have rather similar situation.

Hrant (00:36:42):

First, Pashinyan will have a meeting of European political community on May 4, 2026.

Hrant (00:36:49):

So many,

Hrant (00:36:50):

many European leaders will come,

Hrant (00:36:52):

just arrive just before the elections,

Hrant (00:36:54):

and Pashinyan will describe this as his political support.

Hrant (00:36:59):

success.

Hrant (00:37:00):

And basically, I want to say it clearly,

Hrant (00:37:02):

those political leaders are going to participate in Pashinyan's pre-election

Hrant (00:37:05):

campaign,

Hrant (00:37:06):

which is very intended on Brussels' side.

Hrant (00:37:09):

On the other hand,

Hrant (00:37:10):

Aliyev is trying to also renegotiate some things,

Hrant (00:37:13):

and Pashinyan asks to return several hostages,

Hrant (00:37:18):

let's say non-political hostages,

Hrant (00:37:20):

and this is a negotiation trick right now,

Hrant (00:37:22):

and maybe they will release them,

Hrant (00:37:24):

so Pashinyan will say, look,

Hrant (00:37:25):

we have new hostages back.

Hrant (00:37:27):

So that's another thing.

Hrant (00:37:28):

So they will leave Artsakh's political leadership in Baku's jail,

Hrant (00:37:34):

but the others, they will try to get them free.

Hrant (00:37:36):

And on the other hand,

Hrant (00:37:37):

Russia has already declared that it won't in any way interfere in Armenian

Hrant (00:37:42):

elections,

Hrant (00:37:43):

and it won't support any opposition party.

Hrant (00:37:46):

So as of now,

Hrant (00:37:47):

we see more or less the same foreign situation regarding these elections,

Hrant (00:37:52):

which is important.

Hrant (00:37:53):

On the other hand,

Hrant (00:37:55):

Let's look at internal landscape.

Hrant (00:37:57):

How will those vote distribute?

Hrant (00:37:59):

So I think these events,

Hrant (00:38:01):

which I have already mentioned,

Hrant (00:38:03):

they might affect the vote,

Hrant (00:38:05):

but it will also largely depend on how the opposition will draw their campaign.

Hrant (00:38:13):

What suggestions do they have?

Hrant (00:38:14):

What the program do they have?

Hrant (00:38:16):

How quick, responsive, and effective will they be?

Hrant (00:38:20):

As of now, it's very unclear.

Hrant (00:38:21):

So as of now, the outcome of election is unclear, and both sides can win.

Hrant (00:38:28):

But definitely,

Hrant (00:38:29):

we see that the West support is towards Pashinyan,

Hrant (00:38:34):

and Russia has declared to be neutral.

Hrant (00:38:35):

By the way, Russia's decision might change if Ukrainian war is over beforehand.

Hovik (00:38:43):

Hrant, last question for today.

Hovik (00:38:45):

I want to draw your attention to the Kocharyan press conference.

Hovik (00:38:49):

It was a three-hour conference we talked about, we mentioned already.

Hovik (00:38:54):

And in my opinion, most of what he talked about was...

Hovik (00:38:58):

not new he talked about big strategic projects that armenia requires in order to

Hovik (00:39:03):

prosper and similar to everyone else uh we should mention that the Samvel

Hovik (00:39:12):

Karapetyan's movement not as not a single word about Artsakh

Hovik (00:39:17):

the right of return and so forth and the same was with robert Kocharyan's press

Hovik (00:39:22):

conference but one thing struck out uh from the conference he Kocharyan argued that

Hovik (00:39:29):

he was against of course TRIPP but he argued that pitching a short route

Hovik (00:39:35):

to trump

Hovik (00:39:37):

is the wrong approach and armenia gains nothing from it he said that since trump

Hovik (00:39:41):

favors big projects he said armenia should propose a larger u.s project in the

Hovik (00:39:48):

region a strategic package built on three railways so the existing TRIPP is

Hovik (00:39:55):

basically east-west through Syunik

Hovik (00:39:58):

now he's proposing uh Yeraskh Julfa Iran which is north south and that would actually

Hovik (00:40:07):

drastically reduce uh time between Yerevan and south armenia and he's also

Hovik (00:40:12):

proposing ijevan Azerbaijan Russia which would allow Armenians easy access to

Hovik (00:40:19):

Russia markets and only under the condition of full armenian sovereignty and

Hovik (00:40:25):

matched by reciprocal openings from all sides

Hovik (00:40:29):

He seems to think that Trump's ego may permit this change of rules by Armenia,

Hovik (00:40:38):

but also Kocharyan admitted that Azerbaijan may reject this plan,

Hovik (00:40:42):

but then the diplomatic essentially advantage will be on Armenia's side.

Hovik (00:40:49):

What are your impressions of this argument and perspective laid out by Kocharyan?

Hrant (00:40:55):

I want to speak about, you know, excluding Artsakh from narrative of opposition.

Hrant (00:41:02):

There are two sides.

Hrant (00:41:03):

One is that it's a very big trauma for the society and people don't want to speak

Hrant (00:41:08):

about it because it's very traumatic and the way it was presented and the way it

Hrant (00:41:12):

was constructed,

Hrant (00:41:13):

the whole narrative,

Hrant (00:41:14):

it's very traumatic and Pashinyan has already won this narrative war and opposition

Hrant (00:41:21):

is joining it.

Hrant (00:41:22):

So that's on one hand,

Hrant (00:41:24):

and opposition is trying,

Hrant (00:41:25):

you know,

Hrant (00:41:28):

not to speak on this not very popular topic.

Hrant (00:41:31):

But not very popular does not mean that people don't want to listen to it.

Hrant (00:41:34):

I would say that some people don't want to listen to it.

Hrant (00:41:38):

And another issue is with opposition itself.

Hrant (00:41:41):

I mean, opposition is always playing in the frame of narrative of Pashinyan.

Hrant (00:41:46):

This is why opposition is always losing, and the same way Kocharyan did this time.

Hrant (00:41:50):

I mean, yeah,

Hrant (00:41:51):

Pashinyan is discussing the corridor.

Hrant (00:41:55):

Let's come up with a better corridor.

Hrant (00:41:58):

On one hand,

Hrant (00:41:59):

yeah,

Hrant (00:42:00):

Armenia could,

Hrant (00:42:01):

in this stage,

Hrant (00:42:02):

which is a bad position,

Hrant (00:42:03):

but could try to redraw somehow this negotiation table and have these propositions

Hrant (00:42:09):

which you have mentioned.

Hrant (00:42:11):

That theoretically is possible.

Hrant (00:42:13):

But on another hand,

Hrant (00:42:15):

It is, as of this time,

Hrant (00:42:16):

unrealistic because we fell very low and getting back will be very hard.

Hrant (00:42:21):

But yes,

Hrant (00:42:22):

technically, this could be as a platform for redrawing the negotiations because as of now,

Hrant (00:42:27):

it's a real so-called Zangezur Corridor,

Hrant (00:42:30):

what they are doing.

Hrant (00:42:32):

I mean, yes, Pashinyan says it's not corridor, it is corridor.

Hrant (00:42:35):

And it is extraterritorial corridor.

Hrant (00:42:37):

And even worse, Trump has demanded and Pashinyan has proposed the 99-year rent for USA.

Hrant (00:42:45):

of this piece of the strategically most important territory of Armenia to the U.S.

Hrant (00:42:51):

99 years with possible extension of another 99 years.

Hrant (00:42:55):

So with,

Hrant (00:42:56):

you know,

Hrant (00:42:57):

35 years or 34 years of independence,

Hrant (00:43:00):

Armenia is giving up a territory for basically 198 years to the U.S.

Hrant (00:43:05):

I mean, Pashinyan is just giving the territory.

Hrant (00:43:08):

Do we understand that?

Hrant (00:43:10):

Getting back from this situation,

Hrant (00:43:12):

when you have agreed to give the most strategic territory which you have to other

Hrant (00:43:17):

forces, I mean,

Hrant (00:43:18):

that will be extremely hard,

Hrant (00:43:19):

and this should be a main goal of the new or the next authorities,

Hrant (00:43:25):

but to which extent it is possible and how it should be done,

Hrant (00:43:28):

that's another issue.

Hrant (00:43:29):

But I would rather prefer if

Hrant (00:43:32):

the opposition speaks more of its own narrative and constructs its own narrative.

Hrant (00:43:37):

Yet I don't see that.

Asbed (00:43:39):

I agree with both of you that Armenian society has PTSD with the issue of Artsakh

Asbed (00:43:45):

and is trying to kind of not talk about it.

Asbed (00:43:47):

But I just want to note really quickly that I saw a recent interview with Hayastan

Asbed (00:43:53):

Dashing, member of parliament,

Asbed (00:43:54):

Anna Grigoryan,

Asbed (00:43:55):

and she said that the issue of Artsakh,

Asbed (00:43:57):

of course it is a difficult one,

Asbed (00:43:59):

but it cannot be excluded from their platform.

Asbed (00:44:02):

And so I think that they will be mentioning that during the elections.

Asbed (00:44:06):

At least that's what I heard.

Asbed (00:44:09):

Okay.

Asbed (00:44:11):

Yeah, we'll see.

Asbed (00:44:12):

Let's wrap up our topics here.

Asbed (00:44:14):

We're out of time.

Asbed (00:44:15):

I'd like to ask each of you if there's something on your mind that you would like

Asbed (00:44:18):

to share with our listeners.

Asbed (00:44:20):

Let's go with you first, Hovik.

Hovik (00:44:22):

Okay.

Hovik (00:44:24):

Well, if anyone in the Trump administration is listening to me, listen up.

Hovik (00:44:30):

So Trump, your TRIPP corridor is so tiny.

Hovik (00:44:35):

Don't sell yourself short.

Hovik (00:44:37):

Look on the map.

Hovik (00:44:38):

TRIPP across Syunik is just like 42 kilometers.

Hovik (00:44:42):

You know, if you look at a large map of the region, that's like three inches.

Hovik (00:44:47):

You can do better.

Hovik (00:44:49):

And the Yeraskh-Julfa line suggested by Robert Kocharyan clocks in at around 120 kilometers.

Hovik (00:44:56):

Now that's three times longer, like it's this long.

Hovik (00:44:59):

So Mr. Trump,

Hovik (00:45:01):

Don't put your gold letters on a three-inch project and call it history.

Hovik (00:45:05):

You go nine inches.

Hovik (00:45:08):

The three-inch link dribbles.

Hovik (00:45:10):

The nine-inch route delivers a mother load of cargo, votes, and geopolitical stability.

Hovik (00:45:18):

And on top of that, Armenia must keep its sovereignty.

Hovik (00:45:21):

Everything should be reciprocal.

Hovik (00:45:23):

That's the rule.

Hovik (00:45:24):

Everyone will be happy.

Hovik (00:45:25):

It'll be the most beautiful and grand, beautiful TRIPP ever.

Hovik (00:45:30):

So come on, Trump.

Hovik (00:45:31):

You know that's how it's going to be.

Hovik (00:45:32):

So which headline do you want?

Hovik (00:45:35):

Trump route three inches or Trump route nine inches?

Hovik (00:45:40):

Your call.

Asbed (00:45:42):

Okay.

Asbed (00:45:44):

Hrant, what's on your mind?

Hrant (00:45:47):

Well, I will continue Hovik's story.

Hrant (00:45:51):

Basically, Azerbaijan and Turkey first proposed to Russia to be the moderator of the process.

Hrant (00:45:58):

Then, using the West's approach towards Russia, they were able to exclude Russia from it.

Hrant (00:46:05):

I'm more than sure that in a couple of years,

Hrant (00:46:10):

Azerbaijan and Turkey will do their best to exclude the US from the deal as well.

Hrant (00:46:16):

I'm very sure about it.

Hrant (00:46:18):

So I want the US to understand that in reality,

Hrant (00:46:22):

They should not play Turkish and Azerbaijani games however they present it.

Hrant (00:46:27):

And they should look deeper into this situation in this region.

Hrant (00:46:31):

And they should look deeper into the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan and Armenia

Hrant (00:46:37):

and other players and try to understand to which extent it really fits in their

Hrant (00:46:42):

interests.

Asbed (00:46:45):

All right.

Asbed (00:46:46):

Thank you, Hrant. Thanks for joining us this week.

Asbed (00:46:48):

We appreciate you taking the time.

Hovik (00:46:52):

Thank you for having me.

Hovik (00:46:53):

Take care.

Asbed (00:46:55):

That was our Week in Review recorded on October 14, 2025.

Asbed (00:46:59):

And we've been talking with Hrant Mikaelian,

Asbed (00:47:01):

who is a political scientist and multidisciplinary researcher in social sciences

Asbed (00:47:06):

based in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:47:07):

He's also a senior researcher at the Caucasus Institute.

Hovik (00:47:11):

Folks, don't forget, like, share, comment.

Hovik (00:47:15):

Help us get a few more votes and help us reach a bigger audience.

Hovik (00:47:21):

Make a point of sharing this episode with someone you have never shared and

Hovik (00:47:24):

inviting them to subscribe to our show.

Hovik (00:47:27):

Thank you very much for your support in advance.

Hovik (00:47:30):

And I'm Hovik Manucharyan in rainy Glendale right now.

Asbed (00:47:35):

And I'm Asbed Bedrossian in the same rainy Glendale.

Asbed (00:47:38):

We'll talk to you next week.

Asbed (00:47:40):

Take care.

People on this episode

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Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
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Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
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Hrant Mikaelian

Guest

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