Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Benyamin Poghosyan - Ukraine, Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, TRIPP, Review & Outlook | Ep 500, Dec 28, 2025

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Groong Week in Review - Dec 28, 2025

In this milestone 500th episode of *Groong Week in Review*, we assess how major external crises are shaping Armenia’s strategic environment in 2025, examine the stalled Armenia–Azerbaijan process, analyze Russia’s posture around TRIPP, and discuss the implications of a change in the U.S. ambassador. The episode concludes with an extended year-end review, where each participant evaluates their 2025 predictions from a year ago (in Episode 403), and presents high-, medium-, and low-probability forecasts for 2026.

Topics

  • Foreign Crises Affecting Armenia
  • Armenia-Azerbaijan Saga
  • Russia and TRIPP
  • Change of US Ambassador
  • Year-End Review & Outlook


Guest


Hosts


Episode 500 | Recorded: January 31, 2025

https://podcasts.groong.org/500


Subscribe and follow us everywhere you are: linktr.ee/groong

Asbed (00:00:04):

Hello, everyone,

Asbed (00:00:05):

and welcome to the Armenian News Network Groong's final week in review for 2025.

Asbed (00:00:09):

Theoretically, this would be for December 28th.

Asbed (00:00:13):

Today is December 30th,

Asbed (00:00:14):

still for me,

Asbed (00:00:15):

for another couple of hours,

Asbed (00:00:17):

and it's December 31st for my colleagues here in the show,

Asbed (00:00:20):

Hovik and Benyamin.

Asbed (00:00:22):

We're talking to Benyamin Poghosyan,

Asbed (00:00:24):

who, of course, is from APRI Armenia,

Asbed (00:00:26):

a think tank based in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:00:28):

Hello, Benyamin, and welcome to the Groong podcast, and thank you for a

Asbed (00:00:33):

year of insightful analysis.

Benyamin (00:00:36):

Hello, Asbed and hello, Hovik.

Benyamin (00:00:38):

It's always a pleasure to be with you,

Benyamin (00:00:39):

especially I think this is becoming like a tradition to meet on December 31,

Benyamin (00:00:43):

Armenia time and late December 30,

Benyamin (00:00:45):

US time.

Asbed (00:00:46):

Yes, indeed.

Benyamin (00:00:47):

Try to look after what happened in the year and try to understand or predict or at

Benyamin (00:00:52):

least analyze what may happen in the next year.

Asbed (00:00:55):

Yeah, yeah.

Asbed (00:00:56):

This is the third year.

Hovik (00:00:57):

Voghchuyn Benyamin jan,

Benyamin (00:00:59):

Voghchuyn.

Hovik (00:00:59):

And this is also a special episode because this is episode 500 of our podcast.

Hovik (00:01:05):

Wow, congratulations.

Hovik (00:01:06):

It's really much time.

Hovik (00:01:09):

Five years ago, five and a half years ago, and we're still going strong.

Hovik (00:01:15):

Some stats that I would like to call out from YouTube, for instance, we have 13,000 subscribers.

Hovik (00:01:22):

We have reached that mark.

Hovik (00:01:24):

We have more than 850,000 views.

Hovik (00:01:28):

I mean, it's not that much,

Hovik (00:01:29):

but I think it's for an Armenian team,

Hovik (00:01:32):

for something that we specialize in.

Hovik (00:01:34):

That's, I think, a number that we should behold.

Hovik (00:01:39):

And lastly,

Hovik (00:01:40):

across all the podcast networks,

Hovik (00:01:43):

whether that's Spotify and so forth,

Hovik (00:01:46):

Apple Podcasts,

Hovik (00:01:47):

we have almost reached the 100,000 download mark.

Hovik (00:01:51):

So 95,000 downloads across Spotify, Apple Podcasts.

Hovik (00:01:56):

So this year we're going to break some new records in terms of views,

Hovik (00:02:00):

like a million views and 100,000 downloads.

Hovik (00:02:04):

So we're looking forward to that.

Asbed (00:02:06):

Hovik and I have actually promised ourselves that we will,

Asbed (00:02:09):

in 2026,

Asbed (00:02:10):

we are actually going to make use of a little bit of the funds that have

Asbed (00:02:14):

accumulated thanks to our listeners who have been contributing.

Asbed (00:02:18):

We haven't taken a single penny so far,

Asbed (00:02:20):

but we are actually going to take a little bit of that and use it for various

Asbed (00:02:25):

priorities. There are so many little things.

Asbed (00:02:27):

I mean,

Asbed (00:02:28):

we get bombarded by SEO people saying that,

Asbed (00:02:31):

you know, just a little bit of SEO tuning and you could get another 10,000 views and stuff.

Asbed (00:02:36):

Let's see what we can do.

Benyamin (00:02:38):

Yeah, I think it's really a milestone, especially for geopolitical podcasts.

Benyamin (00:02:43):

I think 800,000 views is not bad for geopolitical podcasts and mostly focused on

Benyamin (00:02:46):

Armenia,

Benyamin (00:02:48):

which definitely not is a hotspot for the world.

Benyamin (00:02:51):

Maybe if this was an entertainment podcast, I would say no, 800,000 is not big enough.

Benyamin (00:02:57):

But for geopolitical or geoeconomical podcasts focused on Armenia and on Armenian

Benyamin (00:03:03):

issues, I think it's quite an impressive milestone.

Benyamin (00:03:06):

And let's not forget that this is English language because mainly in Armenia still,

Benyamin (00:03:10):

they mostly consume Armenian language content.

Benyamin (00:03:13):

Absolutely right.

Benyamin (00:03:14):

So your consumers or target audience is like,

Benyamin (00:03:18):

I would say like small layer of Armenians in Armenia who consume geopolitics in

Benyamin (00:03:23):

English,

Benyamin (00:03:24):

but mostly it's like diaspora and it's also foreign diplomatic and expert circles.

Benyamin (00:03:29):

And I would say that when I'm meeting with

Benyamin (00:03:32):

Many diplomats in Armenia,

Benyamin (00:03:33):

usually they say,

Benyamin (00:03:34):

oh, yes, we are following Groong,

Benyamin (00:03:35):

like we watched your episode or other episodes in Groong,

Benyamin (00:03:39):

and this expert said this,

Benyamin (00:03:40):

so what do you think about that?

Benyamin (00:03:41):

So I can say that at least for diplomatic circles in Armenia,

Benyamin (00:03:46):

people are following you,

Benyamin (00:03:47):

people know you.

Asbed (00:03:48):

Just imagine what it would be like if we had Kim Kardashian and talking Armenian.

Benyamin (00:03:53):

Yeah, I think it would be probably like 10 million views per episode.

Benyamin (00:03:57):

In a day.

Benyamin (00:03:58):

In a day.

Hovik (00:04:00):

Let's jump straight into the news.

Hovik (00:04:03):

So this is going to be a year-end podcast,

Hovik (00:04:06):

and many of our topics are going to be from the frame of reviewing what happened

Hovik (00:04:11):

during the year and also discussing what happened last week and where we're going

Hovik (00:04:17):

to go in 2026.

Hovik (00:04:19):

To begin with, let's circle around Armenia a little bit.

Hovik (00:04:23):

We want to cover foreign crises affecting Armenia and the region.

Hovik (00:04:29):

Namely, Ukraine is a major crisis that concerns us.

Hovik (00:04:36):

If you remember, you can go back and watch our episode 403.

Hovik (00:04:41):

So that was exactly about a year ago where three of us were discussing the

Hovik (00:04:47):

developments in 2024 and our predictions for 2025.

Hovik (00:04:48):

Benyamin, you talked about the Ukraine war

Hovik (00:04:55):

remaining one of the crises that will affect Armenia.

Hovik (00:05:02):

And I think that you have proven to be correct.

Hovik (00:05:08):

So what happened last week in terms of the Ukraine war in Florida,

Hovik (00:05:12):

U.S., Ukrainian and Russian negotiators,

Hovik (00:05:15):

not all at the same time,

Hovik (00:05:16):

I think more in bilateral format,

Hovik (00:05:20):

were

Hovik (00:05:21):

are close or were close to agreeing to a U.S.

Hovik (00:05:24):

proposal for a peace treaty, or at least that's how the U.S.

Hovik (00:05:28):

officials were presenting it.

Hovik (00:05:30):

Possibly what was surprising to me was that I heard Zelensky talk about even a

Hovik (00:05:38):

referendum to trade land in Donbas for permanent peace.

Hovik (00:05:45):

So amidst all this possibility,

Hovik (00:05:46):

it was quite surprising that Russia reported that President Putin's residence in

Hovik (00:05:51):

Novgorod was attacked,

Hovik (00:05:53):

I think last night or a day ago,

Hovik (00:05:56):

and it was a major attack by Ukraine involving almost like 100 drones.

Hovik (00:06:02):

And if this is confirmed,

Hovik (00:06:03):

this would be a major blow to the fragile negotiations,

Hovik (00:06:06):

and Russian authorities have promised to respond in kind.

Hovik (00:06:11):

So amidst these developments,

Hovik (00:06:14):

Benyamin,

Hovik (00:06:15):

what's your assessment of the current state of the peace negotiations in Ukraine to

Hovik (00:06:22):

stop the war?

Hovik (00:06:23):

And anything else you can comment in terms of this war?

Benyamin (00:06:30):

Thank you, Hovik.

Benyamin (00:06:31):

I think what we have in Ukraine now,

Benyamin (00:06:33):

we have a Ukrainian version of peace,

Benyamin (00:06:36):

which from Russian perspective equals to Russia's capitulation and absolutely is

Benyamin (00:06:41):

not acceptable.

Benyamin (00:06:42):

And we have Russia's version of peace,

Benyamin (00:06:45):

which from Ukraine and leading European countries' perspective is a capitulation of

Benyamin (00:06:50):

Ukraine and some kind of capitulation of Europe and is absolutely unacceptable.

Benyamin (00:06:58):

So from this perspective, I don't think that

Benyamin (00:07:01):

all these negotiations,

Benyamin (00:07:02):

talks and this hype which we see also from President Trump will bring any tangible

Benyamin (00:07:09):

results as far as either Ukraine or Russia does not think that they should

Benyamin (00:07:17):

capitulate or they should accept the conditions which are either capitulation or

Benyamin (00:07:21):

close to capitulation.

Benyamin (00:07:23):

From Russia's perspective,

Benyamin (00:07:25):

Russia thinks that,

Benyamin (00:07:26):

okay, guys,

Benyamin (00:07:27):

I have upper hand in the last 18 months,

Benyamin (00:07:29):

at least,

Benyamin (00:07:30):

starting from mid 2024.

Benyamin (00:07:33):

So no talks about capitulation.

Benyamin (00:07:34):

Like I would be crazy to accept conditions, which I believe it's capitulation.

Benyamin (00:07:39):

And from the Ukrainian and European perspective,

Benyamin (00:07:42):

despite Ukraine is losing,

Benyamin (00:07:43):

losing territory,

Benyamin (00:07:45):

losing people,

Benyamin (00:07:46):

losing demography,

Benyamin (00:07:47):

losing economy, but still Ukraine has not reached the breakpoint.

Benyamin (00:07:52):

So to capitulate.

Benyamin (00:07:55):

That's it. So I'm afraid the war will continue.

Benyamin (00:07:58):

My understanding is that the U.S.

Benyamin (00:07:59):

is interested to have some sort of normal relations with Russia.

Benyamin (00:08:03):

The U.S.

Benyamin (00:08:04):

understands that it cannot reach this normalization without war ending Ukraine,

Benyamin (00:08:09):

and somehow the U.S.

Benyamin (00:08:11):

is inclined to accept the version which will more or less equal to capitulation for Ukraine.

Benyamin (00:08:18):

But the problem for Russia and for the U.S.

Benyamin (00:08:21):

and for the Ukraine is that apparently U.S.

Benyamin (00:08:25):

has not enough leverage to force both Ukraine and the big European countries,

Benyamin (00:08:30):

I mean Germany,

Benyamin (00:08:31):

France,

Benyamin (00:08:32):

mostly and others,

Benyamin (00:08:33):

to accept this version of peace.

Benyamin (00:08:35):

So, for example, what we saw, we saw that originally Russia and U.S.

Benyamin (00:08:40):

agreed on some peace plan,

Benyamin (00:08:42):

28 points,

Benyamin (00:08:43):

which more or less from European and Ukrainian perspective was equal to

Benyamin (00:08:46):

capitulation.

Benyamin (00:08:47):

And it seemed that this was okay for the United States.

Benyamin (00:08:50):

But then Europeans jumped in, then changed the plan.

Benyamin (00:08:53):

Now we have 20 point peace plan.

Benyamin (00:08:56):

And from Russia's perspective,

Benyamin (00:08:58):

all important things for Russia have been taken away from this peace plan.

Benyamin (00:09:01):

So it's clear that this 20 point peace plan is not acceptable for Russia.

Benyamin (00:09:06):

So I'm afraid as far as Ukraine and Europe believe that they are not in a place to

Benyamin (00:09:10):

capitulate or to de facto capitulate,

Benyamin (00:09:13):

The war will continue, and from Russian perspective, the version is very clear.

Benyamin (00:09:18):

Either the war continues, or you accept our conditions.

Benyamin (00:09:22):

So from Russian perspective,

Benyamin (00:09:23):

they believe that,

Benyamin (00:09:24):

okay,

Benyamin (00:09:25):

Ukraine rejected our offer in December 2025,

Benyamin (00:09:27):

no problem.

Benyamin (00:09:29):

We will fight for another one year,

Benyamin (00:09:31):

and in December 2026,

Benyamin (00:09:33):

Ukraine will be forced to accept a much worse offer from Russia.

Benyamin (00:09:37):

And if Ukraine and Europe are rejecting offer in December 2026,

Benyamin (00:09:41):

Then we will continue to fight for another year,

Benyamin (00:09:43):

and maybe in December 2027,

Benyamin (00:09:46):

Ukraine and Europe will be forced to accept much worse deals.

Benyamin (00:09:49):

This is from Russian perspective.

Benyamin (00:09:51):

So I'm afraid, I don't think that there is a high probability that war will stop in 2026.

Benyamin (00:09:58):

We just saw that the European Union agreed to put 90 billion euros of loan for

Benyamin (00:10:02):

Ukraine for the next two years.

Benyamin (00:10:04):

Of course, it's absolutely not enough or reconstruct Ukraine or whatever,

Benyamin (00:10:07):

but still it's enough to continue the war.

Benyamin (00:10:10):

So Europe is ready to pay.

Benyamin (00:10:11):

United States from one point is happy to get European money because now U.S.

Benyamin (00:10:15):

spending zero dollar on Ukraine.

Benyamin (00:10:17):

It just take European money.

Benyamin (00:10:19):

Europe pays to U.S.

Benyamin (00:10:20):

and then weapons go to the Ukraine.

Benyamin (00:10:22):

That's it.

Asbed (00:10:23):

Benyamin, OK, so there's money to continue the war, but is there manpower to continue the war?

Benyamin (00:10:30):

I think at least for one year or one and a half year, still there is a manpower.

Benyamin (00:10:33):

Yes,

Benyamin (00:10:34):

we believe,

Benyamin (00:10:35):

or there are estimates,

Benyamin (00:10:36):

that in the territory controlled by Ukrainian government,

Benyamin (00:10:39):

now population is no more than 23,

Benyamin (00:10:41):

24 million people.

Benyamin (00:10:42):

But still, we are speaking about 23, 24 million people.

Benyamin (00:10:45):

So even if we believe what President Trump is telling is true,

Benyamin (00:10:48):

that approximately every week,

Benyamin (00:10:50):

like, a few thousand Ukrainians are being killed,

Benyamin (00:10:52):

which means probably,

Hovik (00:10:53):

like, 15,000...

Benyamin (00:10:55):

or 20,000 killed Ukrainians per month which means like 250,000 Ukrainians killed

Benyamin (00:11:01):

per year and let's assume the same is for Russia so 250,000 killed person and let's

Benyamin (00:11:08):

assume up to 600 700 000 wounded one year it will be approximately 800,000 we speak

Benyamin (00:11:13):

about the population of 23-24 million of course not all are male but still I think

Benyamin (00:11:18):

Ukraine and also Russia

Benyamin (00:11:20):

And Russia's population is at least currently like six times bigger than the

Benyamin (00:11:25):

population of current Ukraine.

Benyamin (00:11:27):

I believe both Russia and Ukraine can sustain this level of casualties for at least

Benyamin (00:11:31):

another two years.

Asbed (00:11:32):

I'm horrified by those numbers.

Asbed (00:11:34):

I just want to say, you know, we throw these numbers around 500,000, 250,000.

Asbed (00:11:37):

I mean, just imagine the catastrophe that is 250,000 of your men dying every year.

Benyamin (00:11:46):

Yeah, it's a really disaster.

Benyamin (00:11:48):

But like,

Benyamin (00:11:49):

I mean,

Benyamin (00:11:50):

from a strategic decision maker's point of view,

Benyamin (00:11:52):

I think,

Benyamin (00:11:53):

again, I believe Ukraine can sustain at least one or maybe two years of fighting and

Benyamin (00:11:57):

Russia can sustain more because simply Russia's population is around 140 million,

Benyamin (00:12:01):

I believe.

Benyamin (00:12:02):

And Ukrainian population under government control is at least 24, 25 million.

Hovik (00:12:06):

I mean, you mentioned...

Hovik (00:12:09):

various degrees of Russian offers that each one would be worse than you know every

Hovik (00:12:15):

consecutive year but what is the current Russian sort of red lines and negotiation

Hovik (00:12:23):

position negotiating positions because

Hovik (00:12:27):

you know, there's always this question about,

Hovik (00:12:30):

I think in terms of NATO expansion,

Hovik (00:12:32):

there's still ambiguity between how Ukrainians see it and how Russians see it.

Hovik (00:12:39):

For instance,

Hovik (00:12:41):

Ukraine is willing to agree to a 15-year pause in NATO expansion,

Hovik (00:12:46):

but obviously it's not enough for Russia.

Hovik (00:12:50):

But also in terms of territorial ambitions,

Hovik (00:12:54):

Where do you think is the current Russian red line in terms of all of those positions?

Benyamin (00:13:03):

Okay, I think we should based our assumptions on the public statement of President Putin

Benyamin (00:13:07):

and Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Benyamin (00:13:09):

And it's very clear that regarding territorial disputes,

Benyamin (00:13:12):

Russia wants,

Benyamin (00:13:13):

as of now,

Benyamin (00:13:14):

that Ukraine,

Benyamin (00:13:15):

US and the international community legally should recognize Crimea and the entire

Benyamin (00:13:19):

Donetsk and Lugansk regions as legally part of Russia,

Benyamin (00:13:22):

and Ukrainian troops should withdraw from the 30-35% of Donetsk region,

Benyamin (00:13:26):

which they still control.

Benyamin (00:13:30):

Frontlines should be frozen in the Kherson and Zaporozhye region as of now.

Benyamin (00:13:34):

These regions will remain like semi-legal.

Benyamin (00:13:36):

Russia will continue to believe that part of Zaporozhye and Kherson are occupied by

Benyamin (00:13:40):

Ukraine, while Ukraine and the international community will argue that part of Zaporozhye

Benyamin (00:13:44):

and Kherson are occupied by Russia.

Benyamin (00:13:46):

But again,

Benyamin (00:13:47):

Crimea,

Benyamin (00:13:48):

Donetsk and Lugansk regions should be legally recognized as part of Russia by

Benyamin (00:13:51):

everyone.

Benyamin (00:13:52):

This is first.

Benyamin (00:13:53):

Ukraine should not have strong army.

Benyamin (00:13:55):

There should be limits on manpower.

Benyamin (00:13:57):

I heard the number of maximum 600,000.

Benyamin (00:13:59):

There should be limits on weaponry.

Benyamin (00:14:01):

This is second demand.

Benyamin (00:14:02):

Third, there should be no international or foreign troops on Ukraine.

Benyamin (00:14:06):

This is a third demand, no foreign troops.

Benyamin (00:14:08):

Fourth, there should be legally protected rights for Russian language and for Russian speaking.

Benyamin (00:14:14):

for those who still will live in Ukraine.

Benyamin (00:14:17):

Fifth, there will be some laws protecting Russia-connected Ukraine Orthodox Church.

Benyamin (00:14:22):

This is the fifth.

Benyamin (00:14:24):

Legally,

Benyamin (00:14:25):

NATO should legally be claimed and it should be fixed legally that there will be no

Benyamin (00:14:30):

expansion of NATO eastward.

Benyamin (00:14:32):

Forget about Ukraine, Georgia or anyone else.

Benyamin (00:14:34):

This is the sixth.

Benyamin (00:14:35):

I think these are the major six points.

Benyamin (00:14:38):

And Russia just is telling that,

Benyamin (00:14:39):

okay, we may accept Ukraine entering the European Union knowing very well that

Benyamin (00:14:44):

Ukraine in the current conditions,

Benyamin (00:14:46):

given that even if Europe will recognize Crimea,

Benyamin (00:14:49):

Donetsk and Lugansk as a part of Russia legally,

Benyamin (00:14:52):

but still Europe will recognize part of Zaporozhye and Kherson as occupied by

Benyamin (00:14:57):

Russians. In this country, in these conditions, Ukraine will never join EU.

Benyamin (00:15:01):

So when Russians are telling, OK, we may accept Ukraine joining EU, they understand that

Benyamin (00:15:06):

In the current conditions,

Benyamin (00:15:07):

and for the probably next 10,

Benyamin (00:15:09):

15,

(00:15:12):

20 years at least,

Benyamin (00:15:11):

Ukraine is not going to join EU.

Benyamin (00:15:12):

So these are the Russian red lines as far as I understand.

Benyamin (00:15:15):

And again,

Benyamin (00:15:16):

what I'm saying is based on public statements of President Putin and Foreign

Benyamin (00:15:20):

Minister Lavrov.

Hovik (00:15:21):

Right.

Hovik (00:15:22):

Okay. Well, from Ukraine, let's jump closer to Armenia, but still in our region.

Hovik (00:15:30):

Netanyahu was in the White House last week, or this week still.

Hovik (00:15:35):

Again, the main topic is to convince Trump to attack Iran.

Hovik (00:15:39):

And it seems that Trump has agreed that Israel would have the U.S.

Hovik (00:15:44):

backing if Iran...

Hovik (00:15:47):

not only tries to restart its civilian nuclear program,

Hovik (00:15:51):

but also in case Iran tries to start making ballistic missiles.

Hovik (00:15:57):

Meanwhile,

Hovik (00:15:58):

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Iran is essentially,

Hovik (00:16:04):

and I'm quoting,

Hovik (00:16:05):

in a full-scale war.

Hovik (00:16:07):

And that was just from a couple of days ago.

Hovik (00:16:09):

Obviously,

Hovik (00:16:10):

these are very dire statements and dire positions expressed by leaders capable of

Hovik (00:16:19):

destroying the world 10 times over.

Hovik (00:16:20):

So I wanted to ask you

Hovik (00:16:24):

You know, and everyone that we talked to also says that it's not if,

Hovik (00:16:28):

but when this war will restart again.

Hovik (00:16:33):

What is your outlook on Iran?

Hovik (00:16:36):

And perhaps even talk about Armenia's role given this recent trip agreement and can

Hovik (00:16:46):

Armenia stay out of it?

Hovik (00:16:47):

You know, how can Armenia navigate this potentially dangerous situation?

Benyamin (00:16:52):

I think Israel's goal is very clear.

Benyamin (00:16:54):

Israel wants a very weak Iran or maybe dismembered Iran.

Benyamin (00:16:58):

So probably ideal scenario for Israel will be to transform Iran into some sort of another Syria.

Benyamin (00:17:03):

Let's put it this way.

Benyamin (00:17:04):

When there will be very weak central government,

Benyamin (00:17:07):

there will be semi-independent or semi-autonomous regions,

Benyamin (00:17:10):

like, I don't know,

Benyamin (00:17:11):

Baluchis,

Benyamin (00:17:12):

probably Azeris,

Benyamin (00:17:13):

probably Kurds.

Benyamin (00:17:15):

And Israel failed to reach that goal in June 2025.

Benyamin (00:17:19):

And also,

Benyamin (00:17:20):

I think Israel failed to completely destroy,

Benyamin (00:17:22):

or at least it's not clear,

Benyamin (00:17:24):

Israel failed or Israel did not fail in its goal to completely destroy a nuclear

Benyamin (00:17:29):

program of Iran.

Benyamin (00:17:30):

The same is for the United States.

Benyamin (00:17:32):

So from Israeli perspective, I think Israel failed to reach its strategic goals

Benyamin (00:17:36):

So I think it's quite natural to assume that Israel will think another military

Benyamin (00:17:39):

attack,

Benyamin (00:17:40):

hoping that this time it will be able to reach its strategic goals.

Benyamin (00:17:44):

From Iranian perspective,

Benyamin (00:17:45):

Iran in the last six months was actively fostering,

Benyamin (00:17:49):

fortifying its air defense.

Benyamin (00:17:50):

There were a lot of like semi-confirmed rumors about Iran buying air defense

Benyamin (00:17:56):

capacities from China and from Russia,

Benyamin (00:17:58):

like S-400 from Russia and some S-300,

Benyamin (00:18:02):

Chinese equal of S-300 systems from Russia.

Benyamin (00:18:06):

China, no, S-400 from Russia, yes, and something equivalent to S-300 from China.

Benyamin (00:18:10):

So Iran also understands that Israel will do everything to weaken Iran,

Benyamin (00:18:14):

because if you look from Israeli perspective,

Benyamin (00:18:16):

all strong enemies of Israel,

Benyamin (00:18:18):

they are completely destroyed or are in a mess.

Benyamin (00:18:22):

I speak about Iraq, I speak about Syria, it's civil war, instability, a mess.

Benyamin (00:18:27):

Only Iran is there, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, or are more or less destroyed.

Benyamin (00:18:33):

except Iran.

Benyamin (00:18:34):

So from this perspective,

Benyamin (00:18:36):

I think, unfortunately,

Benyamin (00:18:37):

it's quite logical to assume that Israel will try another war against Iran in 2026

Benyamin (00:18:42):

to reach its strategic goals.

Benyamin (00:18:45):

And most probably, the US at least will not stop Israel or maybe even will join,

Benyamin (00:18:50):

like we saw in June 2025.

Benyamin (00:18:54):

Regarding Armenia, okay, Armenia is like a too compact country to be part of this equation.

Benyamin (00:19:00):

I think Armenia simply should have some scenarios for the worst case scenario.

Benyamin (00:19:04):

Like if there is a domestic instability of Iran,

Benyamin (00:19:07):

if we see the collapse of the state or if this is declaration of some

Benyamin (00:19:11):

semi-autonomous or autonomous republics or formation within Iranian territory,

Benyamin (00:19:15):

what does it mean for Armenia?

Benyamin (00:19:17):

Two like primary risks first.

Benyamin (00:19:20):

If we are going to face hundreds of thousands ethnically other people entering

Benyamin (00:19:24):

Syunik,

Benyamin (00:19:25):

what does it mean for Syunik,

Benyamin (00:19:26):

which population is only 130,000,

Benyamin (00:19:28):

I think,

Benyamin (00:19:29):

according to Armenian Statistical Committee?

Benyamin (00:19:31):

Then is Armenians able to stop them?

Benyamin (00:19:33):

Will Armenians be able to stop refugees or Armenia will accept refugees?

Benyamin (00:19:36):

And then suddenly we will have a situation when in Syunik we have 130,000 Armenians

Benyamin (00:19:41):

and 250,000 other refugees.

Benyamin (00:19:43):

And what does it mean for all these Zangezur corridor trip and etc.

Benyamin (00:19:48):

This is a concern number one.

Benyamin (00:19:50):

And I think Armenian government should make a clear decision and also should

Benyamin (00:19:53):

cooperate with probably UNHCR trying to filter these refugees according to best

Benyamin (00:19:59):

international standards.

Benyamin (00:20:00):

And second issue,

Benyamin (00:20:02):

we all know that 30 percent of Armenia's trade still goes via Iran and 70 percent

Benyamin (00:20:06):

from Georgia.

Benyamin (00:20:07):

And we just saw like,

Benyamin (00:20:08):

I don't know,

Benyamin (00:20:09):

zero, one point something percent trying to travel via Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:20:12):

So if there is instability in Iran,

Benyamin (00:20:14):

and the 30% export import from our Armenian export import is gone,

Benyamin (00:20:18):

how Armenia is going to cope it to prevent any economic crisis or even lack of some

Benyamin (00:20:23):

vital products in Armenia?

Asbed (00:20:26):

Okay, Benyamin, I'll bring us around to the continuing saga between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:20:31):

In a press conference earlier this week,

Asbed (00:20:35):

Jeyhun Bayramov, Azerbaijan's foreign minister,

Asbed (00:20:37):

appeared to hint at Azerbaijani preconditions for signing and ratifying the

Asbed (00:20:41):

so-called peace agreement that Pashinyan is implementing for Aliyev.

Asbed (00:20:45):

He said, and I'm going to quote,

Asbed (00:20:47):

In order to ensure the signing and ratification of the agreement,

Asbed (00:20:50):

it is of particular importance to fully implement the obligation in the

Asbed (00:20:54):

constitution of Armenia to eliminate the territorial claims existing against

Asbed (00:20:59):

Azerbaijan and to ensure unhindered communications under the TRIP project.

Asbed (00:21:04):

First of all,

Asbed (00:21:05):

I thought it was very interesting that he said trip project and not their usual

Asbed (00:21:09):

Zankezur corridor.

Asbed (00:21:10):

So that was a little bit of a change.

Asbed (00:21:12):

Can you elaborate for us on these two preconditions,

Asbed (00:21:15):

constitutional changes and unhindered access?

Asbed (00:21:18):

And tell us a little bit maybe what are the differences between Armenia and

Asbed (00:21:23):

Azerbaijan in interpreting unhindered?

Hovik (00:21:27):

And also I should mention that this is the first time that we're hearing the

Hovik (00:21:32):

Zangezur corridor or trip and I think it's worth mentioning that this is actually

Hovik (00:21:36):

the same thing,

Hovik (00:21:38):

to me at least,

Hovik (00:21:40):

as explicitly listed as a precondition by Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:21:44):

My understanding and position is very clear and this is clear for last few years

Benyamin (00:21:47):

and we discussed it many times.

Benyamin (00:21:49):

I strongly believe that Azerbaijan has no intention to sign any peace agreement with Armenia.

Benyamin (00:21:54):

because Azerbaijan believes that it will gain nothing from this peace agreement

Benyamin (00:21:58):

while it will gain something from not signing peace agreement.

Benyamin (00:22:01):

So I'm using not the preconditions but pretext.

Benyamin (00:22:05):

This constitution issue was a pretext not to sign peace agreement and now they add

Benyamin (00:22:09):

the second pretext

Benyamin (00:22:11):

that Armenia should fully implement the trip,

Benyamin (00:22:14):

and it's not very clear what does it mean fully implement,

Benyamin (00:22:17):

or from Armenian perspective,

Benyamin (00:22:18):

Armenian may say I fully implement,

Benyamin (00:22:20):

Azerbaijan may say no.

Benyamin (00:22:21):

So this is a second pretext not to sign peace agreement.

Benyamin (00:22:24):

But the key strategic reason is that Azerbaijan does not believe that it will gain

Benyamin (00:22:29):

anything from signing the peace agreement,

Benyamin (00:22:31):

but it will lose something from signing peace agreement,

Benyamin (00:22:33):

and it will gain something from not signing peace agreement.

Benyamin (00:22:36):

Because if there is a no peace agreement,

Benyamin (00:22:38):

Azerbaijan always will keep this threat of use of military force against Armenia.

Benyamin (00:22:44):

Because if there is a peace agreement, the threat is much higher.

Benyamin (00:22:46):

Of course,

Benyamin (00:22:47):

we all understand that peace agreement will not bring the possibility or threat of

Benyamin (00:22:51):

use of force to the 0%.

Benyamin (00:22:53):

Always threat will be here.

Benyamin (00:22:55):

Without peace agreement or with peace agreement,

Benyamin (00:22:57):

the threat of use of force and the reliability of this threat are two different

Benyamin (00:23:00):

things. Without peace agreement,

Benyamin (00:23:01):

Azerbaijan will have much more possibilities to threaten Armenia with use of force

Benyamin (00:23:05):

and actually perhaps use of force when it seems necessary or useful for Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:23:11):

So that's it.

Benyamin (00:23:12):

No intention from Azerbaijan to sign peace agreement.

Benyamin (00:23:14):

We had one pretext for last one and a half year.

Benyamin (00:23:17):

Now we have two pretexts and I believe I argued

Benyamin (00:23:21):

in 2024 and in early 2025,

Benyamin (00:23:23):

that there are no guarantees that Azerbaijan will not add additional pretexts,

Benyamin (00:23:27):

even if Armenia is ready to satisfy the demand for the first pretext.

Benyamin (00:23:31):

And Jehune Bayramov just did it in late, in December 2025.

Benyamin (00:23:34):

He simply added the second pretext.

Asbed (00:23:37):

Yes, you did. You've mentioned that before, and you've been very consistent with that statement.

Asbed (00:23:43):

Does TRIP actually hinder North-South communications, Benyamin?

Asbed (00:23:46):

Could it affect Iran-Eurasian Economic Union communications in stick traffic

Asbed (00:23:50):

between India and the Black Sea,

Asbed (00:23:52):

for example?

Asbed (00:23:53):

And also, you know, TRIP becomes essentially a competitor to traffic through Georgia.

Asbed (00:23:59):

So does it present any kind of a national security issue for Georgia?

Benyamin (00:24:03):

Okay, I think, first of all, we should wait and see what trip is going to be.

Benyamin (00:24:08):

We also see very active Russian movement in the last few weeks,

Benyamin (00:24:12):

starting from high-level statements from MFA to Russian ambassador.

Benyamin (00:24:16):

The trip cannot happen without Russia.

Benyamin (00:24:18):

So I think the key is not that the TRIP will hinder the Armenia-Iran

Benyamin (00:24:23):

transportation,

Benyamin (00:24:24):

but the key is what's going TRIP to be,

Benyamin (00:24:26):

the modalities of the TRIP and who will have what sort of involvement in TRIP.

Benyamin (00:24:32):

It will be only US, it will be only US-Armenia-Azerbaijan, it will be only US and Russia.

Benyamin (00:24:37):

So as far as there is no clear understanding of modalities of TRIP,

Benyamin (00:24:42):

and no one has clear understanding,

Benyamin (00:24:43):

given this joint Armenian-American company has not established yet,

Benyamin (00:24:47):

which should be given the rights to develop this railroad or highway or whatever.

Benyamin (00:24:53):

So

Benyamin (00:24:54):

As far as there is an absolute lack of clarity about this US-Armenian company,

Benyamin (00:24:59):

about its rights,

Benyamin (00:25:00):

and about potential Russian role,

Benyamin (00:25:02):

it's very difficult to argue or say,

Benyamin (00:25:04):

oh, Trip will hinder something,

Benyamin (00:25:05):

or Trip will not hinder something.

Benyamin (00:25:07):

So I think we simply, we have to wait to see.

Benyamin (00:25:10):

But one thing is clear that after a few months of initial,

Benyamin (00:25:13):

like, very,

Benyamin (00:25:15):

like, not clear messaging from Russia,

Benyamin (00:25:18):

in December 2025,

Benyamin (00:25:20):

we started to get very clear messages from Russia that,

Benyamin (00:25:25):

trip or these communications,

Benyamin (00:25:27):

the key,

Benyamin (00:25:28):

let's use the term communications,

Benyamin (00:25:29):

because not to confuse trip,

Benyamin (00:25:31):

Zangezur corridor,

Benyamin (00:25:32):

cross office or whatever.

Benyamin (00:25:34):

We are getting clear messages from Russia that communication which will connect

Benyamin (00:25:38):

Azerbaijan with Turkey via Armenia

Benyamin (00:25:40):

cannot happen without some sort of Russian involvement,

Benyamin (00:25:44):

or Russia will perceive these communications without Russia's involvement as a

Benyamin (00:25:49):

direct threat to Russian interests,

Benyamin (00:25:51):

and we all know what Russia is capable of doing in the post-Soviet space if Russia

Benyamin (00:25:56):

believes that its vital interests are put on threat.

Asbed (00:26:00):

We have a lot of questions on that issue in just a moment.

Asbed (00:26:04):

I just want to understand a little bit more about some of the dynamics that are

Asbed (00:26:07):

going on here,

Asbed (00:26:08):

because in his meeting with Netanyahu,

Asbed (00:26:10):

Trump one more time took credit for stopping the war between Armenia and

Asbed (00:26:14):

Azerbaijan,

Asbed (00:26:15):

that's what he said,

Asbed (00:26:16):

by threatening to impose a 200% tariff on both sides.

Asbed (00:26:20):

And according to Trump, both sides immediately fell in line.

Hovik (00:26:24):

And he also lectured Netanyahu on how to

Hovik (00:26:28):

properly pronounce Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:26:31):

He didn't say Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:26:35):

And this time I think you said Armenia, not Albania.

Benyamin (00:26:40):

Quite impressive improvement, I would say.

Benyamin (00:26:42):

I'd like to know.

Asbed (00:26:44):

Was Trump's threat aimed at Armenia or Azerbaijan?

Asbed (00:26:48):

Because first of all, US-Armenia trade is kind of trivial.

Asbed (00:26:52):

It's not zero,

Asbed (00:26:53):

but it's not at the level of national security threatening for Armenia if there's a

Asbed (00:26:58):

tariff on it.

Asbed (00:26:59):

And second, Armenia has been a complete pliant sheep.

Asbed (00:27:02):

It's in fact been pretty much managed from the United States for the last five years.

Asbed (00:27:06):

So it's not like you have to threaten Pashinyan.

Hovik (00:27:09):

Is this narrative even real?

Hovik (00:27:11):

Because I think even Azerbaijan doesn't have a high enough trade.

Hovik (00:27:15):

So when Trump is out threatening China,

Hovik (00:27:19):

you know,

Hovik (00:27:20):

and, you know,

Hovik (00:27:21):

playing poker with rare earth metals and magnets and things like that,

Hovik (00:27:25):

and nuclear war,

Hovik (00:27:26):

I think that, you know,

Hovik (00:27:28):

yeah, I don't know,

Hovik (00:27:29):

like, you know, we're in that totem pole.

Asbed (00:27:31):

Was Trump basically talking to Aliyev, trying to get Aliyev to fall in line?

Asbed (00:27:36):

Is that what was going on?

Benyamin (00:27:38):

Okay, my understanding is very simple.

Benyamin (00:27:40):

I think Trump in his brain has simply talking points about what he did.

Benyamin (00:27:44):

And these are talking points that, okay, I stop wars and I threaten everyone with tariffs.

Benyamin (00:27:49):

So these are only two talking points.

Benyamin (00:27:51):

So he combines these both talking points and he thinks about the same for Armenian

Benyamin (00:27:57):

and Azerbaijan that he stopped the war,

Benyamin (00:27:59):

which it actually did not.

Benyamin (00:28:00):

We may say that he prevented the new large-scale aggression by Azerbaijan by having this trip

Benyamin (00:28:07):

And from a Azerbaijani perspective,

Benyamin (00:28:09):

maybe because Azerbaijan thinks that he got what he wanted,

Benyamin (00:28:11):

but this is another discussion.

Benyamin (00:28:12):

But first,

Benyamin (00:28:14):

President Aliyev did not stop the Armenia-Azerbaijan war because last time when

Benyamin (00:28:18):

people were died on Armenia-Azerbaijan border was in February 2024,

Benyamin (00:28:22):

when President Trump was fighting in courts.

Benyamin (00:28:25):

as far as I remember.

Benyamin (00:28:26):

And B,

Benyamin (00:28:27):

definitely US could not threaten Azerbaijan and Armenia with tariffs because both

Benyamin (00:28:31):

Armenia and Azerbaijan are trading with...

Benyamin (00:28:34):

the trade with US is very,

Benyamin (00:28:35):

very,

Benyamin (00:28:36):

very low. For example, Turkey can threaten Azerbaijan with tariffs, Russia can threaten, I don't know.

Benyamin (00:28:40):

Russia can threaten tariffs against Armenia.

Benyamin (00:28:43):

Theoretically, the EU can threaten.

Benyamin (00:28:45):

For example, Italy can threaten Italy,

Benyamin (00:28:47):

because almost half of Azerbaijan experts go to Italy,

Benyamin (00:28:51):

oil and gas.

Benyamin (00:28:52):

But what's the United States?

Benyamin (00:28:53):

So simply, I think President Trump has a talking point.

Benyamin (00:28:55):

Every time when you speak about some conflict, say two things.

Benyamin (00:28:58):

I stop the war and I use tariffs.

Benyamin (00:29:00):

And he tells this also to show his base in the United States that,

Benyamin (00:29:04):

look, tariffs are good seeing,

Benyamin (00:29:05):

tariff didn't bring inflation,

Benyamin (00:29:07):

instead tariff brings,

Benyamin (00:29:08):

I don't know, trillions of dollars of US budget,

Benyamin (00:29:10):

and now even Trump established his Trump account as every newborn baby starting

Benyamin (00:29:13):

from January 2026,

Benyamin (00:29:14):

which allegedly get 1000 US dollars from Trump or Trump account or whatever.

Benyamin (00:29:19):

So, again, Trump did not stop any Armenian-Azerbaijan war.

Benyamin (00:29:23):

We may say that the Trump or United States prevent

Benyamin (00:29:26):

the new Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia,

Benyamin (00:29:28):

A,

Benyamin (00:29:29):

and B, what happened in August 2025 has nothing to do with U.S.

Benyamin (00:29:32):

threats on put tariffs on Armenian and Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:29:37):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:29:39):

Benyamin, going back to what we talked about,

Hovik (00:29:42):

which is the Zangezur corridor or trip or any,

Hovik (00:29:46):

okay, whatever,

Hovik (00:29:47):

communications.

Hovik (00:29:49):

Azerbaijan has clear ideas about what it wants and it has clear demands and it has

Hovik (00:29:54):

the upper hand.

Hovik (00:29:55):

So I think it's important to consider what Azerbaijan...

Hovik (00:30:00):

things it wants to get or it needs to get in order for this peace to happen and i

Hovik (00:30:06):

think that this issue of unhindered is very important for Azerbaijan so what do you

Hovik (00:30:14):

think unhindered means for Azerbaijan is it

Hovik (00:30:19):

Does it include weaponry?

Hovik (00:30:20):

Does it include military personnel and equipment?

Hovik (00:30:29):

I recently watched an interview of the US military attache in Armenia talking about

Hovik (00:30:35):

this,

Hovik (00:30:36):

and it seems like all of this is up in the air.

Hovik (00:30:38):

Armenia has not excluded, at least, the possibility of actually weaponry and military equipment

Hovik (00:30:47):

crossing freely from Nakhijevan through Armenia to the rest of Azerbaijan and

Hovik (00:30:52):

Central Asia without any monitoring?

Benyamin (00:30:57):

First of all, this unhindered is very important for Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan put efforts to put

Benyamin (00:31:04):

this wording in November 2020 statement.

Benyamin (00:31:08):

which was signed by Armenia, Russia, and Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:31:11):

And Azerbaijan took efforts to have the same wording in Washington declaration,

Benyamin (00:31:15):

signed in August 2025.

Benyamin (00:31:16):

So from an Azerbaijani perspective, nothing was changed.

Benyamin (00:31:21):

Still, it gets unhindered access.

Benyamin (00:31:23):

Simply, there should be some Russian involvement, now there should be some U.S.

Benyamin (00:31:26):

informant.

Benyamin (00:31:27):

But Azerbaijan believes that it got unhindered access.

Benyamin (00:31:30):

Okay, what does it mean, unhindered access?

Benyamin (00:31:31):

As far as I understand, I think in 2022, 2023, and probably the first half of 2024,

Benyamin (00:31:38):

Unhindered access for Azerbaijan means they will try to travel via Syunik from

Benyamin (00:31:42):

Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan the same way as,

Benyamin (00:31:45):

for example, we are traveling from Yerevan to Gyumri or you are traveling from Los Angeles to

Benyamin (00:31:50):

San Diego.

Benyamin (00:31:51):

Like absolutely nothing.

Benyamin (00:31:52):

No one stops.

Benyamin (00:31:53):

You are just continuously driving.

Benyamin (00:31:56):

Starting from the second part of 2024,

Benyamin (00:31:58):

Azerbaijan said that okay,

Benyamin (00:32:00):

unhindered means that yes,

Benyamin (00:32:02):

there should be checks,

Benyamin (00:32:03):

but there should be no human presence.

Benyamin (00:32:06):

So everything should be automated.

Benyamin (00:32:08):

So yes, Azerbaijani citizens,

Benyamin (00:32:09):

cars,

Benyamin (00:32:10):

cargo can be stopped,

Benyamin (00:32:11):

passports can be scanned,

Benyamin (00:32:13):

the goods can be checked via scanners,

Benyamin (00:32:15):

but there should be no human-to-human interaction.

Benyamin (00:32:18):

As President Aliyev said, Azerbaijani should see no human Armenian faces.

Benyamin (00:32:23):

Azerbaijani should see only some

Benyamin (00:32:26):

equipment, some scanning machines for passport scans,

Benyamin (00:32:29):

some scanners for scanning cargo,

Benyamin (00:32:31):

trains,

Benyamin (00:32:32):

or cars.

Benyamin (00:32:33):

So for the last one and a half year,

Benyamin (00:32:35):

unhindered access means that Azerbaijani citizens are reaching the checkpoint on

Benyamin (00:32:40):

Azerbaijan's unique border.

Benyamin (00:32:43):

Then there is no Armenians, there is no human.

Benyamin (00:32:45):

They simply entering into some buses,

Benyamin (00:32:48):

The photos have been taken,

Benyamin (00:32:49):

the passports are being scanned automatically by themselves,

Benyamin (00:32:53):

and then the gate opens,

Benyamin (00:32:54):

and then they continue driving via Sunik,

Benyamin (00:32:57):

reach Nakhijevan,

Benyamin (00:32:58):

Syunik border,

Benyamin (00:32:59):

again checkpoint.

Benyamin (00:33:00):

Again, the car is stopped, but no human face, no human interactions.

Asbed (00:33:05):

But this is for people.

Asbed (00:33:06):

What about for cargo?

Asbed (00:33:08):

And what kind of cargo?

Benyamin (00:33:10):

uh for cargo so if we think about cargo which will transport by cars this is the

Benyamin (00:33:15):

same for cargo like uh or regarding the train is not very clear for me like some

Benyamin (00:33:20):

argue that even trains can be stopped and trains every wagon can pass through some

Benyamin (00:33:25):

sort of scanners to see what inside but another important issue is that we all know

Benyamin (00:33:30):

that every country theoretically has a right not to allow certain citizens of third

Benyamin (00:33:34):

country to enter yes there is a list of like non-grata persons

Benyamin (00:33:39):

like a list of persons who can threaten your national security.

Benyamin (00:33:43):

From an Azerbaijani perspective,

Benyamin (00:33:45):

unhindered means not only there should be no face-to-face interaction,

Benyamin (00:33:48):

no human interaction,

Benyamin (00:33:50):

but also Armenia effectively will have no right,

Benyamin (00:33:52):

for example,

Benyamin (00:33:53):

to say that, okay,

Benyamin (00:33:54):

I don't want this concrete Azerbaijani citizen to travel via Armenia,

Benyamin (00:33:58):

so I will stop him entering to Sunik.

Benyamin (00:34:01):

From an Azerbaijani perspective, this is not going to happen.

Benyamin (00:34:04):

So Armenia only will be informed that

Benyamin (00:34:07):

This Azerbaijani citizen with this name and surname just entered Syunik and then

Benyamin (00:34:11):

left Syunik and entered Nakhijevan.

Benyamin (00:34:12):

But even if Armenia believes that this guy is,

Benyamin (00:34:15):

for example, the criminal or even there is a criminal persecution in Armenia against this guy

Benyamin (00:34:19):

because, for example,

Benyamin (00:34:20):

this guy in 2022 killed Armenian captives during the battles or whatever,

Benyamin (00:34:26):

Armenia will be deprived from possibility not only to arrest this person who is

Benyamin (00:34:30):

trying to enter Armenia,

Benyamin (00:34:32):

but also will be deprived from possibility to prevent this person using Armenian

Benyamin (00:34:35):

territory.

Benyamin (00:34:36):

Armenia only will be informed that this person first enters Tunic and B after like

Benyamin (00:34:41):

40 minutes left Tunic.

Benyamin (00:34:43):

Regarding the cargo,

Benyamin (00:34:44):

there are some discussions that some scanners should be there,

Benyamin (00:34:47):

provided by Americans,

Benyamin (00:34:48):

so both cars,

Benyamin (00:34:49):

trucks,

Benyamin (00:34:50):

and even trains,

Benyamin (00:34:51):

like each of the trains will be entered,

Benyamin (00:34:53):

there will be big hangers with scanners,

Benyamin (00:34:55):

so these scanners will scan even the cargo trains or trains or trucks,

Benyamin (00:35:01):

but let's see, but again,

Benyamin (00:35:02):

unhindered means that

Benyamin (00:35:04):

Okay, I have to mention this.

Benyamin (00:35:06):

I was not going to, but since you mentioned

Hovik (00:35:24):

Special people,

Hovik (00:35:25):

I have to mention this because it clearly depicts the state that Armenians are in.

Hovik (00:35:31):

Ramil Safarov,

Hovik (00:35:32):

the axe murderer who murdered an Armenian in his sleep,

Hovik (00:35:36):

an Armenian military officer in his sleep in Hungary in 2004,

Hovik (00:35:44):

Aliyev was able to convince Orban to release Safarov.

Hovik (00:35:49):

We know that.

Hovik (00:35:50):

When he was released,

Hovik (00:35:52):

he promoted him to the rank of military,

Hovik (00:35:54):

I mean,

Hovik (00:35:55):

the military rank of lieutenant colonel.

Hovik (00:35:57):

And just recently,

Hovik (00:35:58):

Aliyev explicitly,

Hovik (00:36:00):

I mean, in the midst of all these negotiations,

Hovik (00:36:02):

he promoted Safarov to the rank of colonel.

Hovik (00:36:07):

And I believe his wife also works for an agency,

Hovik (00:36:11):

an Azerbaijan agency who was also recently promoted.

Hovik (00:36:15):

I don't think these are coincidences.

Hovik (00:36:17):

I think that this is a specific message that Aliyev is trying to send.

Hovik (00:36:21):

He will be going through Sunik and taking selfies and publishing it.

Hovik (00:36:24):

Essentially like Ramil Safarov can.

Asbed (00:36:27):

Not "can", he WILL do this.

Benyamin (00:36:30):

From an Azerbaijani perspective,

Benyamin (00:36:32):

it means that,

Benyamin (00:36:33):

yes, even this person,

Benyamin (00:36:36):

Armenia, will not be able to ban the enter of this person to Syunik to travel from Azerbaijan

Benyamin (00:36:41):

to Nakhijevan and vice versa.

Benyamin (00:36:43):

And what Azerbaijanis are telling,

Benyamin (00:36:44):

and I think we discussed very briefly,

Benyamin (00:36:46):

that this non-human interaction should apply only for Azerbaijani citizens.

Benyamin (00:36:51):

If there will be foreign citizens who will travel from Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan via

Benyamin (00:36:54):

Syunik,

Benyamin (00:36:55):

then ordinary procedures can be implied.

Asbed (00:36:58):

Getting back to these preconditions,

Asbed (00:37:00):

Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan mentioned this week that there remain some

Asbed (00:37:04):

disagreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:37:06):

What are those disagreements?

Asbed (00:37:09):

And I guess you already answered the second part of the question.

Asbed (00:37:12):

Are they likely to become preconditions?

Benyamin (00:37:16):

Okay, look,

Benyamin (00:37:17):

it's very difficult to answer that question,

Benyamin (00:37:18):

actually,

Benyamin (00:37:19):

because, for example, Armenia is telling or Armenian government is telling that we have disagreements.

Benyamin (00:37:23):

We don't believe that

Benyamin (00:37:25):

Armenian constitution or specifically the declaration of independence in Armenian

Benyamin (00:37:30):

constitution preamble is an obstacle for the signature of peace agreement.

Benyamin (00:37:34):

This is our official Armenian government position.

Benyamin (00:37:37):

But simultaneously we know that Armenian government is preparing new draft

Benyamin (00:37:41):

constitution and Prime Minister multiple times stated that from his perception

Benyamin (00:37:45):

declaration of independence there should be no reference to the declaration of

Benyamin (00:37:50):

independence in the new constitution.

Benyamin (00:37:51):

So it's a little bit confusing.

Benyamin (00:37:54):

So Armenia is telling that I have this agreement with Azerbaijan that reference to

Benyamin (00:37:58):

the Declaration of Independence is obstacle.

Benyamin (00:38:00):

I don't believe this is obstacle.

Benyamin (00:38:02):

But simultaneously,

Benyamin (00:38:03):

the Prime Minister is stating that reference to the Declaration of Independence

Benyamin (00:38:06):

should be removed because this Declaration of Independence is a threat to Armenian

Benyamin (00:38:10):

statehood. So at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:38:11):

if we are going to have a new constitution or draft constitution,

Benyamin (00:38:15):

which will have no reference to the Declaration of Independence,

Benyamin (00:38:19):

then it means there is no disagreement.

Benyamin (00:38:21):

Because effectively,

Benyamin (00:38:22):

Armenian government will remove a reference to the Declaration of Independence,

Benyamin (00:38:26):

which Azerbaijan demands.

Benyamin (00:38:27):

But telling us this is not because Azerbaijan demands, this is because we think so.

Benyamin (00:38:31):

But at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:38:32):

regardless of the real motives,

Benyamin (00:38:34):

why Armenian government is going to remove the reference to the Declaration of

Benyamin (00:38:37):

Independence from the new constitution,

Benyamin (00:38:39):

actually,

Benyamin (00:38:40):

in reality, we will have the situation which will satisfy Azerbaijani demands.

Benyamin (00:38:45):

This is first.

Benyamin (00:38:46):

And regarding the second,

Benyamin (00:38:47):

this unhindered access,

Benyamin (00:38:49):

of course, we do not know the modalities,

Benyamin (00:38:52):

we do not know what US and Armenia are negotiating.

Benyamin (00:38:55):

But I believe several times high Armenian officials stated that,

Benyamin (00:38:58):

okay, theoretically,

Benyamin (00:38:59):

yes,

Benyamin (00:39:00):

we may have a situation when we do not need human-to-human interaction during

Benyamin (00:39:04):

border crossing,

Benyamin (00:39:05):

because there are this new

Benyamin (00:39:07):

technologies,

Benyamin (00:39:08):

even there were like examples of how EU citizens are entering EU during passport

Benyamin (00:39:13):

controls and I saw it many times in European airports.

Benyamin (00:39:16):

When European citizens are simply entering the buses,

Benyamin (00:39:19):

there is no person there,

Benyamin (00:39:20):

they are automatically scanning their passport and entering to the Schengen zone.

Benyamin (00:39:24):

So my understanding is that I don't exclude that at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:39:28):

Armenian government may say okay,

Benyamin (00:39:30):

I am okay with this zero human interaction procedures,

Benyamin (00:39:35):

But I only hope that at least the Armenian government will still demand that,

Benyamin (00:39:39):

okay, but I have to write to prevent some people to enter.

Benyamin (00:39:42):

So, okay, there will be no humans, no Armenians checking the passport, but if

Benyamin (00:39:47):

passport scan will be made then simultaneously the same second Armenian relevant

Benyamin (00:39:52):

agencies will get information and they will say that okay this guy is in our

Benyamin (00:39:56):

blacklist so this guy should not enter the Syunik or should not be allowed to travel

Benyamin (00:40:01):

via Syunik to Nakhijevan.

Benyamin (00:40:02):

I hope at least that Armenian government while maybe agreeing to zero

Benyamin (00:40:06):

human-to-human interface passport or customs check at least will argue that Armenia

Benyamin (00:40:12):

should have the right to prevent some people from entering Armenia.

Hovik (00:40:16):

Yeah,

Hovik (00:40:17):

I mean,

Hovik (00:40:18):

you talked about the interests of Russia and Russia being more assertive in terms

Hovik (00:40:25):

of its interests.

Hovik (00:40:27):

Russian officials have pointed to the November 10,

Hovik (00:40:30):

2020 statement saying it's still valid and point number nine of that statement,

Hovik (00:40:33):

which says that Russian border guards should control the communications.

Hovik (00:40:40):

Over the last week, we have seen some counter demands by Armenia.

Hovik (00:40:44):

Pashinyan said that Russia should fix the various east-west portions of the railway

Hovik (00:40:50):

that have been basically languishing since the Artsakh War.

Hovik (00:40:59):

And he threatened that if Russia does not,

Hovik (00:41:03):

Russia has a monopoly currently,

Hovik (00:41:05):

or a concession for a monopoly on Armenian railways,

Hovik (00:41:09):

And if Russia does not fix this,

Hovik (00:41:12):

then Armenia will potentially reduce or take away some of the Russian monopoly and

Hovik (00:41:19):

make these construction works by themselves.

Hovik (00:41:24):

What can you tell us about this episode and this back and forth between Russia and

Hovik (00:41:29):

Armenia and specifically Russian and Armenian interests in Russia?

Hovik (00:41:37):

unblocking these,

Hovik (00:41:38):

you know,

Hovik (00:41:39):

in the modalities and how these negotiations are going in terms of the trip?

Benyamin (00:41:44):

Okay, first, regarding the communications via Sunik,

Benyamin (00:41:46):

which should connect Azerbaijan with Turkey,

Benyamin (00:41:49):

via Nakhjivan,

Benyamin (00:41:50):

I think it's very clear that it's not only about Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:41:53):

it's first about Turkey,

Benyamin (00:41:55):

because

Benyamin (00:41:56):

It will create a very short link from Turkey to Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:42:00):

Currently, Turkey has access to Azerbaijan via Georgia,

Benyamin (00:42:02):

railway,

Benyamin (00:42:03):

these Baku-Tbilisi cars,

Benyamin (00:42:04):

but it's hundreds of kilometers via Georgia.

Benyamin (00:42:08):

And of course,

Benyamin (00:42:09):

Turkey has access to Azerbaijan via Iran,

Benyamin (00:42:10):

but again,

Benyamin (00:42:11):

we are speaking about hundreds of kilometers.

Benyamin (00:42:15):

Turkey will get this unhindered access to Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:42:19):

it will mean that it will be almost direct access and only it will be 44 or 45

Benyamin (00:42:23):

kilometers passing through another country.

Benyamin (00:42:26):

And especially if it will be unhindered,

Benyamin (00:42:28):

because let's be clear,

Benyamin (00:42:29):

there is no unhindered provisions

Benyamin (00:42:32):

while connecting Turkey with Azerbaijan via Georgia or Turkey with Azerbaijan via Iran.

Benyamin (00:42:38):

This is first. Second,

Benyamin (00:42:39):

Russia also understands that this also means,

Benyamin (00:42:42):

first of all, connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan and Turkey with Central Asia.

Benyamin (00:42:46):

And all this is part also of this organization of Turkic state or let's create

Benyamin (00:42:50):

another united Turkic world which will compete in this real or emerging or not

Benyamin (00:42:55):

emerging multiportal world order.

Benyamin (00:42:57):

So from Russia's perspective, Russian presence in the communications which will connect

Benyamin (00:43:02):

In a very short way, Turkey with Azerbaijan and Central Asia are very important.

Benyamin (00:43:06):

So Russia will be aware that these communications are not going to be used against

Benyamin (00:43:10):

its vital interests.

Benyamin (00:43:11):

But again, both South Caucasus and Central Asia are part of Russian vital interests.

Benyamin (00:43:18):

And this is not the case,

Benyamin (00:43:19):

by the way, for the United States,

Benyamin (00:43:20):

which is 10,000 kilometers away from South Caucasus.

Benyamin (00:43:23):

And we see that our President Trump is telling, oh, Ukraine is not part of our vital interests.

Benyamin (00:43:27):

Because Ukraine is 10,000 km, it's Europe's issue.

Benyamin (00:43:30):

So if even Ukraine is not part of U.S.

Benyamin (00:43:32):

vital interest, what to speak about the South Caucasus?

Benyamin (00:43:35):

So regarding the demand of Pashinyan,

Benyamin (00:43:38):

like, okay, let's renovate the railroad connections from Armenia to Nakhijavan,

Benyamin (00:43:42):

from Armenia to Turkey-Gyumri cars,

Benyamin (00:43:45):

and from Armenia to Azerbaijan via Ijevan-Ghazakh.

Benyamin (00:43:48):

Of course,

Benyamin (00:43:49):

if all these communications will be open,

Benyamin (00:43:51):

this will be good for Armenia,

Benyamin (00:43:52):

because Armenia will get railroad access to Iran via Nakhijavan,

Benyamin (00:43:56):

And Armenia will get railroad access via Turkey to Middle East or at least to the

Benyamin (00:44:01):

Turkish Mediterranean ports.

Benyamin (00:44:03):

And then you can have access both to Middle East and to the European market also via Turkey.

Benyamin (00:44:10):

Russian interest?

Benyamin (00:44:11):

Okay, theoretically,

Benyamin (00:44:12):

Russian interest could be, okay,

Benyamin (00:44:13):

let's have additional railroad access to Armenia via Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:44:17):

directly via Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:44:18):

because you know that currently we just saw the few shipments from Russia,

Benyamin (00:44:22):

Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:44:23):

Georgia, Armenia.

Benyamin (00:44:24):

If this Ijevan-Gazakh railway is ready,

Benyamin (00:44:27):

then Russia may ship something to Armenia directly via Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:44:30):

and Armenia may export something to Russia directly via Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:44:33):

circumventing Georgia's route.

Benyamin (00:44:35):

And as I said,

Benyamin (00:44:36):

theoretically,

Benyamin (00:44:37):

if there will be both Armenia-Nakhgevan and Armenia-Gyumri railroad open,

Benyamin (00:44:43):

then this will give second option for Russia to reach to Turkey via railroad,

Benyamin (00:44:49):

because currently Russia can reach via Russia,

Benyamin (00:44:51):

Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:44:52):

Georgia.

Benyamin (00:44:53):

And if everything is open,

Benyamin (00:44:54):

then it will be Russia,

Benyamin (00:44:55):

Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:44:56):

Tunic,

Benyamin (00:44:57):

Nahejevan, Yerevan,

Benyamin (00:44:58):

Gyumri, Gars.

Benyamin (00:44:59):

Again, Russia, Turkey.

Benyamin (00:45:00):

But again,

Benyamin (00:45:01):

first,

Benyamin (00:45:03):

I'm not sure that Azerbaijan will be happy to allow Armenia to use railroads via

Benyamin (00:45:08):

Nahejevan to reach Iran.

Benyamin (00:45:09):

Most probably not.

Benyamin (00:45:11):

I don't think that Turkey will fully open its border,

Benyamin (00:45:15):

including railroad connection with Armenia,

Benyamin (00:45:17):

as far as there is no peace agreement with Azerbaijan.

Benyamin (00:45:19):

And because Azerbaijan will do everything never to have peace agreement with

Benyamin (00:45:23):

Armenia,

Benyamin (00:45:24):

I'm afraid that we will continue to be in this loop.

Benyamin (00:45:26):

When there is no peace agreement with Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:45:29):

Armenia, and there is no full border opening,

Benyamin (00:45:31):

including railroad access between Armenia and Turkey,

Benyamin (00:45:34):

and there is no railroad access between Armenia and Iran via Nakhchivan.

Benyamin (00:45:37):

So the key, again, is the communications.

Benyamin (00:45:40):

which will connect Turkey with Central Asia.

Benyamin (00:45:43):

This is a big geopolitical game.

Benyamin (00:45:44):

And of course,

Benyamin (00:45:45):

Russia wants to be part of these communications,

Benyamin (00:45:47):

to have involvement,

Benyamin (00:45:48):

to prevent these communications between Turkey and Central Asia to be used against

Benyamin (00:45:52):

Russia.

Benyamin (00:45:54):

That's it.

Asbed (00:45:55):

Okay, Benyamin, before we go to our year-end review, I have one quick question here.

Asbed (00:46:01):

Trump recently recalled 29 or 30 of the U.S.

Asbed (00:46:04):

ambassadors that were appointed during Biden's time.

Asbed (00:46:08):

Among them is Christina Quinn in Armenia.

Asbed (00:46:10):

Is this a cosmetic change by Trump,

Asbed (00:46:14):

an ego-driven kind of a thing,

Asbed (00:46:15):

or could there be more consequences and more than meets the eye in this change of

Asbed (00:46:19):

ambassador in Armenia?

Benyamin (00:46:22):

Okay,

Benyamin (00:46:23):

I'm not sure about the motives of this entire recalling of 30 ambassadors,

Benyamin (00:46:26):

but if we speak about the US ambassador in Armenia,

Benyamin (00:46:29):

let's not forget that she arrived in Armenia in February 2023.

Benyamin (00:46:33):

And usually American ambassadors stay in Armenia for three years.

Benyamin (00:46:36):

For example, John Heffern stayed three years.

Benyamin (00:46:39):

Then Richard DeMille stayed for three years 2015-2018.

Benyamin (00:46:42):

Then Lynn Tracy stayed three years 2019-2022.

Benyamin (00:46:47):

So effectively in February 2026, the three years was going to expire.

Benyamin (00:46:52):

So most probably current U.S.

Benyamin (00:46:53):

ambassador was going to be replaced in any case in the next few months.

Benyamin (00:46:57):

So I'm not in a position we can call this recall because if you're

Benyamin (00:47:02):

term is for three years,

Benyamin (00:47:03):

which means February 2023,

Benyamin (00:47:05):

February 2026,

Benyamin (00:47:06):

and you are being recalled in mid or late January 2026,

Benyamin (00:47:09):

like four weeks before your official term may expire,

Benyamin (00:47:12):

I don't think this is a recall.

Benyamin (00:47:14):

I don't exclude that.

Benyamin (00:47:15):

Maybe among these 30 ambassadors,

Benyamin (00:47:16):

there are people who have been just appointed or who have been appointed one year

Benyamin (00:47:20):

ago or two years ago.

Benyamin (00:47:21):

For them, we can use the term recall.

Benyamin (00:47:24):

But for the U.S.

Benyamin (00:47:25):

ambassador in Armenia, whose term was going to expire in February 2026,

Benyamin (00:47:30):

The recall in late January 2026, I don't think this is a real recall.

Benyamin (00:47:35):

So I'm not sure that this is a significant development.

Asbed (00:47:38):

Okay.

Asbed (00:47:39):

Well, let's look at our 2025 predictions or assessments we made a year ago in Episode 403.

Asbed (00:47:45):

And for our listeners, you can go to podcasts.groong.org/403.

Asbed (00:47:52):

and check what those things were.

Asbed (00:47:54):

But let me set the pace and start with my own predictions.

Asbed (00:47:58):

I made a prediction that Ukraine was likely going to wind down and slow down,

Asbed (00:48:04):

possibly entering negotiations,

Asbed (00:48:05):

but not fully get resolved.

Asbed (00:48:08):

I predicted for Gaza,

Asbed (00:48:09):

I expected continued catastrophe,

Asbed (00:48:12):

potential ethnic cleansing,

Asbed (00:48:14):

and broad international indifference.

Asbed (00:48:16):

And for Armenia,

Asbed (00:48:17):

I said, do not expect regime collapse,

Asbed (00:48:20):

anticipate continued Western financial aid via loans,

Asbed (00:48:23):

and sustaining the current government amid prolonged insecurity and stagnation.

Asbed (00:48:29):

So if I were to rate myself, I think I got it right on Ukraine pretty much 100%.

Asbed (00:48:35):

On Gaza, I think, well, it is an unmitigated disaster and genocide.

Asbed (00:48:43):

Trump has basically succeeded to get it off the daily US national headlines.

Asbed (00:48:48):

But that doesn't mean that life has gotten better over there or anything like that.

Asbed (00:48:52):

I think it's still a huge problem.

Asbed (00:48:55):

international problem.

Asbed (00:48:56):

And for Armenia,

Asbed (00:48:57):

well,

Asbed (00:48:58):

you see what we have already,

Asbed (00:48:59):

religious persecutions,

Asbed (00:49:01):

jailings, archbishops in jail,

Asbed (00:49:03):

non-aligned CEOs,

Asbed (00:49:04):

tycoons,

Asbed (00:49:05):

opposition members.

Asbed (00:49:07):

There are a lot of political prisoners in Armenia.

Asbed (00:49:10):

And finally, the addition of another billion and a half,

Asbed (00:49:12):

$1.5 billion of national debt with no end in sight and no reduction of poverty.

Asbed (00:49:19):

And I haven't been to Armenia,

Asbed (00:49:21):

so I don't know what the infrastructure is like,

Asbed (00:49:23):

but maybe you can tell me that.

Asbed (00:49:25):

But, you know, I'll just be complimentary to myself for once and say I got three out of three.

Asbed (00:49:30):

Kovig?

Asbed (00:49:31):

Yeah. Yeah.

Asbed (00:49:32):

And you can knock me down if you want to say you're going to give me two and a half

Asbed (00:49:36):

points out of three and try to beat me as a three out of three.

Hovik (00:49:41):

I don't think this is a matter that we should gamify and say, you know, how many points?

Hovik (00:49:46):

Maybe 2.7.

Hovik (00:49:49):

You know, when each of these like 0.1 percentage points would mean thousands of lives lost,

Hovik (00:49:57):

but i think that we are all like you know on the same page in terms of you know our

Hovik (00:50:03):

predictions you know so i think that both like Benyamin and i um you know predicted

Hovik (00:50:09):

that there was going to be or you know worried that there was going to be a war

Hovik (00:50:13):

against iran which happened and it's going to continue into 2026.

Hovik (00:50:18):

uh we um

Hovik (00:50:23):

I do have a bone to pick with your prediction on Ukraine.

Hovik (00:50:27):

I mean, even though it's entering into negotiations,

Hovik (00:50:30):

I would say that,

Hovik (00:50:32):

at least according to what Benyamin said today,

Hovik (00:50:34):

I think it's nowhere close to slowing down

Hovik (00:50:38):

And I think that despite the pretense or despite the official facade of

Hovik (00:50:45):

negotiations, I think the Ukraine war is still raging on.

Hovik (00:50:49):

And in terms of territorial gains,

Hovik (00:50:53):

Russia is only accelerating its territorial gains and not slowing down.

Hovik (00:50:57):

So 2.6, 2.7?

Asbed (00:51:03):

Never mind. 2.5. 2.4. 2.35. Okay.

Hovik (00:51:09):

And unfortunately, yeah.

Hovik (00:51:10):

So my thoughts on Ukraine, I believe, were also the same.

Hovik (00:51:15):

The conflict would not end and it would be displaced into other regions.

Hovik (00:51:19):

We see the repercussions for Armenia because of the Russian preoccupation with Ukraine.

Hovik (00:51:28):

And in terms of Armenia itself, I saw a year ago no positive trajectory without regime change.

Hovik (00:51:35):

And given that regime change has not happened,

Hovik (00:51:37):

there is nothing positive to talk about in Armenia,

Hovik (00:51:39):

unfortunately for me.

Hovik (00:51:41):

I don't want to say I got 100% on my dire predictions, but that's what it looks like.

Hovik (00:51:46):

Okay.

Asbed (00:51:48):

Benyamin?

Benyamin (00:51:49):

I think we should be fair to ourselves,

Benyamin (00:51:51):

because look,

Benyamin (00:51:52):

we can go and read,

Benyamin (00:51:53):

for example, the best think tanks assessments,

Benyamin (00:51:55):

like Council on Foreign Relations,

Benyamin (00:51:57):

CSIS,

Benyamin (00:51:58):

like IISS,

Benyamin (00:51:59):

Cheatham House,

Benyamin (00:52:00):

or even European Council on Foreign Relations,

Benyamin (00:52:03):

and we are mostly speaking about Western think tanks,

Benyamin (00:52:05):

because the concept of think tank is mostly valid in the West,

Benyamin (00:52:08):

and we are not very much familiar with like Indian,

Benyamin (00:52:10):

Chinese, or global foul think tanks.

Benyamin (00:52:12):

But even these people, they like, so if we believe that we were

Benyamin (00:52:17):

right from 3 to 2.5 i think we can argue that they're very close to the high

Benyamin (00:52:22):

standard because even people sitting in CPR, CSIS, and these are top big names people

Benyamin (00:52:28):

who have much more access to the information because for example in us top level

Benyamin (00:52:32):

think tanks every week or once per two weeks they have access to some sort of

Benyamin (00:52:36):

classified information like secretary of state are coming to speak with them cia

Benyamin (00:52:40):

director speaks with them in closed door discussions so even if these people

Benyamin (00:52:44):

failed to fully predict the reality,

Benyamin (00:52:48):

then speaking about outfitting in Los Angeles with zero access to any classified

Benyamin (00:52:54):

information, I think we have done quite good job,

Benyamin (00:52:57):

frankly speaking.

Hovik (00:52:58):

Yeah, definitely, especially compared with

Hovik (00:53:03):

Von der Leyen, who predicted that Russian economy is in tatters,

Hovik (00:53:08):

and Kaja Kallas,

Hovik (00:53:09):

who wanted Russia to be dismembered into 20 or so different states.

Hovik (00:53:13):

I think that definitely our predictions are much better than these two individuals,

Hovik (00:53:20):

who I think have some pretty important jobs.

Asbed (00:53:23):

Benyamin, talk about your predictions for 2025.

Benyamin (00:53:29):

Okay, I think mostly,

Benyamin (00:53:30):

again, this was in line,

Benyamin (00:53:32):

like the Ukraine,

Benyamin (00:53:34):

that there is not going to be the peace there,

Benyamin (00:53:36):

and there is no peace there.

Benyamin (00:53:37):

I think we also thought that there could be some sort of escalation against

Benyamin (00:53:40):

Armenia,

Benyamin (00:53:41):

and we definitely, no one can predict that Trump will jump into this South Caucasus.

Benyamin (00:53:45):

We thought that Trump will be less interested in South Caucasus.

Benyamin (00:53:48):

So I think from my perspective,

Benyamin (00:53:49):

the key thing,

Benyamin (00:53:50):

which we couldn't anticipate,

Benyamin (00:53:51):

knowing that President Trump won the November 2024 elections,

Benyamin (00:53:55):

is this US active involvement

Benyamin (00:53:58):

in the South Caucasus and the U.S.

Benyamin (00:54:00):

efforts to bring this Washington declaration and bring U.S.

Benyamin (00:54:04):

involvement into these communications which will connect Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:54:07):

Turkey or Turkey with Central Asia.

Benyamin (00:54:09):

Otherwise,

Benyamin (00:54:10):

I think predictions were more or less close to reality as far as is possible in

Benyamin (00:54:14):

this crazy geopolitical world.

Asbed (00:54:16):

I wanted to ask you quickly,

Asbed (00:54:18):

from the time before Trump came on board,

Asbed (00:54:22):

did he meet your expectations as to about how involved he was going to be with the

Asbed (00:54:27):

South Caucasus?

Asbed (00:54:28):

Did you expect him to be a little as much as he has or more at the time, like a year ago?

Benyamin (00:54:34):

Frankly speaking,

Benyamin (00:54:35):

I thought that definitely he will have less involvement than Biden administration,

Benyamin (00:54:41):

but we saw the same level,

Benyamin (00:54:42):

and at the end of the day,

Benyamin (00:54:43):

he even managed to bring Pashinyan and Aliyev to Washington and sign Washington

Benyamin (00:54:47):

Declaration and even initial peace agreement,

Benyamin (00:54:49):

which does not mean anything,

Benyamin (00:54:50):

frankly speaking,

Benyamin (00:54:51):

but still.

Benyamin (00:54:52):

So yes, I think I thought that it will be less involvement,

Benyamin (00:54:55):

but we see the same level in involvement and some higher results,

Benyamin (00:55:00):

at least photo-optic results,

Benyamin (00:55:01):

let's put this way.

Asbed (00:55:03):

Okay.

Asbed (00:55:04):

Well, let's move to our 2026 predictions because we're running out of time.

Asbed (00:55:10):

Benyamin, give us three predictions.

Asbed (00:55:13):

Again,

Asbed (00:55:14):

one that is highly likely to happen,

Asbed (00:55:17):

one that you think,

Asbed (00:55:18):

you know,

Asbed (00:55:19):

I'm not sure if it's going to happen or not 50-50,

Asbed (00:55:21):

and one that you think isn't the works,

Asbed (00:55:24):

but it's not likely to happen in 2026.

Asbed (00:55:26):

Okay.

Benyamin (00:55:27):

Okay, let's start from 2026,

Benyamin (00:55:28):

which is not likely to happen,

Benyamin (00:55:30):

is any peace agreement signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan,

Benyamin (00:55:33):

as simple as it is.

Benyamin (00:55:35):

What is highly likely, I'm afraid some sort of military escalation against Iran.

Benyamin (00:55:41):

Again, I don't know, this would be like one day surgical strikes or large scale war,

Benyamin (00:55:46):

I'm not sure,

Benyamin (00:55:47):

but some sort of military escalation is highly likely.

Benyamin (00:55:51):

In Ukraine,

Benyamin (00:55:52):

probably, I would say that continuing of hostilities and incremental gains by Russia,

Benyamin (00:56:00):

additional thousands or thousands of square kilometers,

Benyamin (00:56:02):

fell under Russian control, but still Ukraine is not fully break up.

Benyamin (00:56:06):

I mean,

Benyamin (00:56:07):

it's not in the point when Ukraine will be forced to accept Russian demand,

Benyamin (00:56:11):

which again, Ukraine believe it will be capitulation.

Benyamin (00:56:13):

So no peace agreement,

Benyamin (00:56:15):

the most likely some sort of military action against Iran and grinding war in

Benyamin (00:56:20):

Ukraine with additional Russian territorial gains,

Benyamin (00:56:23):

probably.

Asbed (00:56:24):

Okay.

Asbed (00:56:25):

Hobik, do you have three events that you think are likely?

Hovik (00:56:31):

I don't want to agree with Benyamin about everything he mentioned internationally,

Hovik (00:56:37):

but I will say that I do agree with everything he said.

Hovik (00:56:41):

So I will focus on Armenia.

Hovik (00:56:42):

I think that what is unfortunately very likely to happen is that Pashinyan will win

Hovik (00:56:51):

win, I mean that in air quotes, parliamentary elections in 2026.

Hovik (00:56:57):

He will do so under a lot of pressure using administrative resources,

Hovik (00:57:03):

using outright falsifications,

Hovik (00:57:06):

and with the support and cheering of everyone in the West,

Hovik (00:57:10):

including the United States.

Hovik (00:57:13):

There is the European political community that is scheduled to take place right

Hovik (00:57:18):

before the elections.

Hovik (00:57:20):

J.D. Vance is reported to be considering visiting Armenia right before the elections.

Hovik (00:57:26):

EU is going to

Hovik (00:57:30):

help Armenia.

Hovik (00:57:31):

And I don't mean with the 15 million that it promised.

Hovik (00:57:35):

That's nothing.

Hovik (00:57:36):

But I think what that 15 million means is that it will be a commitment to look the

Hovik (00:57:43):

other way in case Pashinyan does something.

Hovik (00:57:46):

And what could Pashinyan do?

Hovik (00:57:48):

Well, he's obviously going to

Hovik (00:57:50):

Just like in Moldova, he's going to ban opposition parties.

Hovik (00:57:54):

He's going to do everything to jail and intimidate opposition.

Hovik (00:57:57):

And he will do so in a surgical way that targeting the most important opponents first.

Asbed (00:58:05):

Were you surprised that Samvel Karabedjan was actually released to home detention?

Hovik (00:58:12):

I was not surprised because it was ridiculous.

Hovik (00:58:14):

It was a ridiculous charge to begin with.

Hovik (00:58:16):

And everyone is like, you know, cheering this thing.

Hovik (00:58:19):

I mean, he's still under arrest.

Asbed (00:58:22):

He's been in jail for six months for no reason, essentially.

Hovik (00:58:25):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:58:26):

So I don't see like what is there to celebrate about.

Hovik (00:58:30):

I think he should be completely free.

Hovik (00:58:32):

i think that but but nevertheless all this negative aside i think that evil cannot

Hovik (00:58:37):

prevail over good so i think that even if pashinyan quote-unquote wins the

Hovik (00:58:43):

elections it will turn into unfortunately a conflict in the streets of Yerevan that

Hovik (00:58:49):

um i think that you know it would be best to avoid that situation so did you give

Hovik (00:58:55):

us your uh medium and low likelihood events medium likelihood is that um

Hovik (00:59:03):

Pashinyan will decide to call it quits.

Hovik (00:59:10):

I just don't see a good end for him if he continues.

Hovik (00:59:18):

And low likelihood is Pashinyan prevailing over the Armenian church because I think

Hovik (00:59:25):

Satan cannot win over God.

Hovik (00:59:28):

So that's my prediction.

Asbed (00:59:31):

My God, Pashinyan, Pashinyan and Pashinyan for one, two and three.

Asbed (00:59:35):

Okay.

Asbed (00:59:36):

Well,

Asbed (00:59:38):

I hate to say that I took the easy way out and for my high likelihood,

Asbed (00:59:43):

I also said that we're going to see Iran-Israel part two,

Asbed (00:59:46):

unfortunately.

Asbed (00:59:47):

That's not much of a prediction, given all the conversations we've had this year.

Asbed (00:59:52):

And a year from now,

Asbed (00:59:53):

we're going to be talking about the same thing,

Asbed (00:59:56):

absolutely,

Asbed (00:59:57):

that goals were not achieved,

Asbed (00:59:59):

strategic goals were not achieved,

Asbed (01:00:01):

and there will be an Iran-Israel Part 3 in 2027.

Asbed (01:00:05):

For my 50-50,

Asbed (01:00:08):

here's where I go a little bit on a limb because I want to be daring and see if we

Asbed (01:00:13):

can push the envelope a little bit.

Asbed (01:00:16):

For my 50-50, I said there might be a formal withdrawal from the CSTO.

Asbed (01:00:22):

I'm not sure what we would replace the CSTO with,

Asbed (01:00:25):

but I feel like with Pashinian experimenting with these oil and gas and grain

Asbed (01:00:30):

shipments through Azerbaijan,

Asbed (01:00:32):

from Azerbaijan and everything,

Asbed (01:00:34):

he might try to replace a lot of the Russian dependency and suddenly switch all of

Asbed (01:00:40):

the sourcing to,

Asbed (01:00:41):

let's say,

Asbed (01:00:42):

Azerbaijani oil and gas instead of Russian and just decide that he's leaving the

Asbed (01:00:46):

CSTO.

Asbed (01:00:48):

And then there could be consequences.

Asbed (01:00:50):

Consequences like Russia suddenly says,

Asbed (01:00:53):

I mean, he could also say Russia take five years and get out of the 102nd base in Gyumri.

Asbed (01:00:59):

And I thought there could be consequences to this,

Asbed (01:01:02):

like Russia could just annex the base and say that is Russian territory.

Asbed (01:01:07):

And we can go from there as to what kind of scenarios would abound.

Asbed (01:01:10):

But that becomes, as Benyamin used to say frequently, science fiction.

Asbed (01:01:14):

Yeah.

Asbed (01:01:16):

And for my low likelihood prediction, it's kind of like your high likelihood, Hobie.

Asbed (01:01:23):

Pashinyan losing the parliamentary elections in June 2026,

Asbed (01:01:26):

very low likelihood because I think that there will be so much falsification and

Asbed (01:01:30):

administrative resources and jailings and whatever's that I don't see it happening.

Asbed (01:01:36):

And there could be consequences to him losing the elections.

Asbed (01:01:40):

Azerbaijan could attack, could annex Sunik,

Asbed (01:01:43):

to prevent some kind of a government that he doesn't approve of coming and stopping

Asbed (01:01:49):

the negotiations and everything starts from ground zero.

Asbed (01:01:53):

So that's what I think.

Asbed (01:01:56):

And we'll put it in the show notes at podcasts.groong.org.

Asbed (01:01:59):

And this episode is going to be 500.

Asbed (01:02:01):

And next year we'll reference and we'll see how things are going.

Benyamin (01:02:05):

So,

Benyamin (01:02:06):

I'm afraid, like,

Benyamin (01:02:07):

not a very optimistic assessment,

Benyamin (01:02:09):

but still,

Benyamin (01:02:10):

because this is December 31 in Armenia,

Benyamin (01:02:13):

and even in December 30 in Los Angeles.

Asbed (01:02:15):

Almost for me also.

Benyamin (01:02:16):

Yes, almost for you.

Benyamin (01:02:18):

Like, I think, like, a few minutes,

Benyamin (01:02:19):

and you jump into December 31,

Benyamin (01:02:20):

and we will jump into 2026 within,

Benyamin (01:02:22):

I guess,

Benyamin (01:02:23):

12 hours,

Benyamin (01:02:24):

more or less,

Benyamin (01:02:25):

or even less.

Benyamin (01:02:26):

So,

Benyamin (01:02:27):

despite the predictions are not too optimistic,

Benyamin (01:02:29):

still, okay,

Benyamin (01:02:31):

as Christians, we should have hope.

Benyamin (01:02:32):

So let's hope that not all our negative predictions will come true.

Benyamin (01:02:36):

And hope is very important sometimes.

Benyamin (01:02:39):

And also wish everyone,

Benyamin (01:02:40):

including,

Benyamin (01:02:41):

first of all, Aspen and Hovik,

Benyamin (01:02:42):

to you,

Benyamin (01:02:43):

but also to all our listeners and all our Armenian nation,

Benyamin (01:02:45):

all over the world,

Benyamin (01:02:48):

as happy as possible in the new 2026 year and Merry Christmas.

Hovik (01:02:51):

Yeah, we say New Year, we call Amanor in Armenian.

Hovik (01:02:56):

So Happy New Year and happy coming Christmas.

Hovik (01:03:01):

Armenians celebrate Christmas on January 6th.

Hovik (01:03:04):

We will have another show before that.

Hovik (01:03:05):

So let's focus one step at a time.

Hovik (01:03:08):

Happy New Year and we'll talk to you in 2026.

Asbed (01:03:12):

Happy New Year in Armenian.

Asbed (01:03:14):

We'll talk to you in 2026.

Asbed (01:03:15):

Bye-bye.

Benyamin (01:03:22):

Bye-bye.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

Benyamin Poghosyan

Guest

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