Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Hrant Mikaelian - Venezuela, Attacks on the Armenian Church Continue, MPG Poll Results | Ep 501, Jan 4, 2026

• Armenian News Network / Groong • Episode 501

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Groong Week in Review - January 4, 2026

Topics:

  • Developments in Venezuela
  • Attacks on Armenian Church Continue
  • New MPG Poll Results
  • Armenian Economy in 2025 (Jan-Oct)

Guest: Hrant Mikaelian

Hosts:

Episode 501 | Recorded: January 6, 2026

SHOW NOTES: https://podcasts.groong.org/501

VIDEO: https://youtu.be/ACfF9ryiswE


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Asbed (00:00:06):

Hello, everyone.

Asbed (00:00:07):

Happy New Year.

Asbed (00:00:08):

We hope that 2026 is a successful year for all of our listeners.

Asbed (00:00:13):

Welcome to the year's first Groong Weekend Review for January 4, 2026.

Asbed (00:00:17):

Today, we have Hrant Mikaelian with us.

Asbed (00:00:20):

He is an interdisciplinary researcher in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:00:23):

And to all of our Armenian listeners,

Asbed (00:00:26):

today on January 6,

Asbed (00:00:27):

Armenian Christmas,

Asbed (00:00:28):

Christos dznav yev Haidnetzav,

Asbed (00:00:30):

Orhnyal eh dzununtuh Christosi.

Hrant (00:00:32):

Mezi Dzezi mets avetis.

Asbed (00:00:36):

Actually, I'm not sure if it's more proper to say Orhnyal eh dzununtuh, or Orhnyal eh Haidnutunuh.

Hovik (00:00:42):

Orhnyal eh Haidnutunuh.

Asbed (00:00:44):

Yeah, probably Haidnutunuh because Armenian Christmas is more about baptism and theophany.

Asbed (00:00:49):

It's about the appearance of the divine nature of Christ rather than the physical

Asbed (00:00:53):

birth of Christ.

Asbed (00:00:54):

Anyway, Hrant, Happy New Year.

Asbed (00:00:58):

And thank you for joining us on the Groong Podcast.

Hrant (00:01:00):

Thank you.

Hrant (00:01:01):

Thank you for having me.

Hrant (00:01:02):

Happy New Year to you and all listeners.

Asbed (00:01:06):

Thank you. Let's hit our topics then.

Asbed (00:01:09):

Whether you call it a blatant breach of international law,

Asbed (00:01:12):

an act of war,

Asbed (00:01:13):

state terrorism,

Asbed (00:01:14):

an abduction,

Asbed (00:01:15):

or all of the above,

Asbed (00:01:16):

what happened in Venezuela over the weekend of January 3rd is going to have

Asbed (00:01:20):

far-reaching repercussions around the world because within a matter of a few hours,

Asbed (00:01:25):

U.S.

Asbed (00:01:26):

special ops swooped into Caracas,

Asbed (00:01:28):

stormed the presidential compound,

Asbed (00:01:30):

and abducted President Nicolas Maduro and his wife from Venezuela.

Asbed (00:01:35):

Just to make sure that you really understand this,

Asbed (00:01:39):

the president of Venezuela's Republic,

Asbed (00:01:42):

the head of a UN recognized state was kidnapped from his own residence and in his

Asbed (00:01:48):

own country by the United States.

Hovik (00:01:50):

Yeah, I have to say this as well, that Trump made a claim that the U.S.

Hovik (00:01:57):

is going to run the country.

Hovik (00:01:59):

I mean,

Hovik (00:02:00):

I think Marco Rubio tried to walk it back a little bit,

Hovik (00:02:04):

but it was an audacious claim that is still being reverberated across the news

Hovik (00:02:11):

shows.

Asbed (00:02:12):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:02:13):

Trump further threatened that in Maduro's absence,

Asbed (00:02:16):

vice president and now acting president,

Asbed (00:02:18):

Delcy Rodriguez better follow U.S.

Asbed (00:02:20):

demands or else the U.S.

Asbed (00:02:22):

will attack again.

Asbed (00:02:24):

Rodriguez has demanded that Maduro and his wife be released immediately,

Asbed (00:02:27):

but she has also indicated that she's going to collaborate with the United States.

Asbed (00:02:32):

Actually,

Asbed (00:02:33):

there are many indications,

Asbed (00:02:34):

there are many reports that Delcy Rodriguez and her brother,

Asbed (00:02:38):

Jorge Rodriguez,

Asbed (00:02:39):

carried out essentially what amounts to a palace coup.

Asbed (00:02:43):

They had been working with the U.S.

Asbed (00:02:44):

through an intermediary for months,

Asbed (00:02:46):

the United Arab Emirates,

Asbed (00:02:48):

I think, to hand over Maduro to the U.S.

Asbed (00:02:50):

and take control of Venezuela.

Hovik (00:02:53):

Can I just also ask that these are reports from Western media?

Hovik (00:02:57):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:02:58):

And I think that,

Hovik (00:03:00):

you know, we shouldn't take everything for granted,

Hovik (00:03:02):

especially something that was printed in the telegraph.

Hovik (00:03:06):

But,

Hovik (00:03:07):

you know, I understand that there are a lot of questions that Venezuelans and everyone is

Hovik (00:03:10):

asking on how exactly this happened.

Asbed (00:03:12):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:03:13):

Yeah. It's a little unexplainable.

Asbed (00:03:15):

So I'm sure that there are backstories to the whole thing.

Asbed (00:03:19):

Meanwhile,

Asbed (00:03:20):

you should not be surprised to know that many so-called world leaders have followed

Asbed (00:03:26):

suit. They've come out in support of the illegal U.S.

Asbed (00:03:29):

kidnapping.

Asbed (00:03:30):

The poodles of war,

Asbed (00:03:31):

Mertz, Macron,

Asbed (00:03:32):

other EU heads of state have said things like,

Asbed (00:03:35):

oh, the Venezuelan people are now rid of Nicolas Maduro's dictatorship and can only

Asbed (00:03:40):

rejoice.

Asbed (00:03:41):

And meanwhile,

Asbed (00:03:43):

the UN has declared that the special ops was illegal from the perspective of

Asbed (00:03:47):

international law.

Asbed (00:03:48):

China and Russia have slammed the US,

Asbed (00:03:51):

but it doesn't look like anybody's going to intervene in any immediate apparent

Asbed (00:03:55):

ways.

Asbed (00:03:57):

The one voice that I also heard,

Asbed (00:03:59):

Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic,

Asbed (00:04:03):

he said, public international law no longer exists.

Asbed (00:04:06):

So, Hrant, that is the question.

Asbed (00:04:08):

Is international law dead?

Hrant (00:04:10):

Well, actually,

Hrant (00:04:11):

the discussion of whether international law is dead or not is ongoing for the last,

Hrant (00:04:19):

let's say, 20 years,

Hrant (00:04:20):

I would say.

Hrant (00:04:21):

And basically, the international law was on its high during the Cold War.

Hrant (00:04:29):

Because for the law, you need a law enforcement entity.

Hrant (00:04:34):

Now, who can be the enforcement entity?

Hrant (00:04:38):

Formally, it was a UN Security Council.

Hrant (00:04:43):

And aside from that, you need a power.

Hrant (00:04:45):

And those were two powers who could control the world,

Hrant (00:04:48):

basically,

Hrant (00:04:49):

United States and Soviet Union.

Hrant (00:04:51):

And based on post-World War II agreements and then Helsinki Act,

Hrant (00:04:58):

there has been rather,

Hrant (00:05:00):

we can say,

Hrant (00:05:01):

consensus on what is the international law.

Hrant (00:05:04):

And then we had...

Hrant (00:05:07):

you know, political processes that could violate it.

Hrant (00:05:10):

I will bring a couple of examples.

Hrant (00:05:12):

For example, the U.S.

Hrant (00:05:14):

attack on Granada in 1983,

Hrant (00:05:17):

and then attack on Panama,

Hrant (00:05:20):

if I'm not mistaken,

Hrant (00:05:22):

where Noriega,

Hrant (00:05:23):

the president of Panama,

Hrant (00:05:26):

was kidnapped in a very similar way.

Hrant (00:05:28):

It was,

Hrant (00:05:29):

if I'm not mistaken,

Hrant (00:05:30):

1989 or 1990,

Hrant (00:05:32):

a very similar way to what happened,

Hrant (00:05:35):

you know, on January 3th.

Hrant (00:05:37):

So basically, we're talking about precedents that are very similar to what happened these days.

Hrant (00:05:44):

So it's not something that is really new.

Hrant (00:05:47):

And of course, we can discuss betrayal of elites in this case and in previous cases as well.

Hrant (00:05:54):

I'm not sure what happened exactly,

Hrant (00:05:56):

but it seems like it has happened to some extent,

Hrant (00:05:59):

at least because,

Hrant (00:06:00):

you know,

Hrant (00:06:01):

there was no fire from Caracas on Americans.

Hrant (00:06:05):

And, you know, to have this type of operation,

Hrant (00:06:07):

you need to be sure that no one will be hitting back.

Hrant (00:06:11):

So anyway,

Hrant (00:06:12):

I think that on one hand,

Hrant (00:06:15):

international law is in a very problematic state of affairs because the Security

Hrant (00:06:21):

Council is in a dysfunctioning state.

Hrant (00:06:26):

But at the same time,

Hrant (00:06:28):

it's nothing new because the things which are happening right now have happened

Hrant (00:06:34):

before as well.

Hrant (00:06:35):

So the U.S.

Hrant (00:06:36):

has attacked different countries beforehand.

Hrant (00:06:40):

And by the way, Russians did too.

Hrant (00:06:42):

Chinese did not.

Hrant (00:06:43):

And most likely they will not attack in near future as well.

Hrant (00:06:47):

So basically what we're observing now has happened before as well.

Asbed (00:06:51):

Well, 70% of the Venezuelan oil was exported to China and Maduro was also close to Russia.

Asbed (00:06:57):

Do you expect that Russia and China will be reacting to these events in any more

Asbed (00:07:03):

than words or are they simply impotent in the face of US military operations,

Asbed (00:07:09):

especially in the Americas,

Asbed (00:07:11):

in the Western hemisphere?

Hrant (00:07:13):

Well, first Russian statement was somewhat strong and today's statement was very soft.

Hrant (00:07:20):

So we can expect that either Russians were part of a deal, which is to my opinion,

Hrant (00:07:29):

to my assessment,

Hrant (00:07:30):

less likely,

Hrant (00:07:32):

or they are incapable of acting,

Hrant (00:07:35):

you know,

Hrant (00:07:36):

firmer,

Hrant (00:07:37):

or they are just not willing to engage in a new battlefield,

Hrant (00:07:42):

having one which they are very poorly managing,

Hrant (00:07:45):

frankly speaking. So as of now, I think Russians will not intervene more than they do.

Hrant (00:07:51):

And by the way, your question is legitimate to the extent that the, you know, approach of

Hrant (00:07:59):

the current government,

Hrant (00:08:01):

government without president,

Hrant (00:08:03):

government without Maduro towards United States will be dependent on the position

Hrant (00:08:09):

of Brazil,

Hrant (00:08:11):

of Russia and China.

Hrant (00:08:12):

So basically that's BRICS.

Hrant (00:08:15):

And as of now, we see that BRICS is passive.

Hrant (00:08:18):

China is passive too, making very soft statements and does not provide with any feasible aid.

Hrant (00:08:28):

So I think Venezuela is left alone.

Hrant (00:08:31):

And it looks like Venezuelan authorities,

Hrant (00:08:35):

which have made several harsh statements immediately after American attack,

Hrant (00:08:43):

are now backing down.

Hrant (00:08:45):

So most likely they will

Hrant (00:08:48):

subordinate, at least partially, towards US demands.

Hrant (00:08:52):

And Russia and China will score another loss.

Hrant (00:08:57):

We can remember Syria, which took place a year ago.

Hrant (00:09:00):

where Russians and Iranians,

Hrant (00:09:04):

and indirectly Chinese as well,

Hrant (00:09:06):

also scored their defeat politically,

Hrant (00:09:09):

very important defeat,

Hrant (00:09:11):

not to say about Artsakh and many other events.

Hrant (00:09:13):

So as of now,

Hrant (00:09:14):

US is effectively trying to keep or even restore its power,

Hrant (00:09:19):

because what we observed these days was very harsh reaction on the side of Latin

Hrant (00:09:27):

Americans,

Hrant (00:09:28):

But if they see that no one is coming to help,

Hrant (00:09:32):

they will have to renegotiate with the United States and take into consideration

Hrant (00:09:37):

Americans' view more and more.

Asbed (00:09:39):

So what is the larger strategic reason behind this move by the United States?

Asbed (00:09:45):

What do you think was the reason suddenly this year in January for the U.S.

Asbed (00:09:50):

to attack Venezuela?

Hrant (00:09:55):

Frankly speaking,

Hrant (00:09:56):

I see here more tactical reasons because Trump desperately needed some kind of win,

Hrant (00:10:06):

especially media win,

Hrant (00:10:08):

because as of now,

Hrant (00:10:09):

he just won in media.

Hrant (00:10:13):

Venezuela is not run by friendly government as of now, so not many things have changed.

Hrant (00:10:19):

But he has shown Maduro to the public the very same way as Roman emperors were showing

Hrant (00:10:26):

barbaric kings in Rome.

Hrant (00:10:28):

So I think he is trying to show himself as an emperor and he is trying to utilize

Hrant (00:10:35):

this event in media as much as he can.

Hrant (00:10:40):

But if we enlarge the scope

Hrant (00:10:43):

from the tactical move,

Hrant (00:10:45):

which favors Trump internally and externally as well,

Hrant (00:10:48):

we can see that Trump is following his national security agenda,

Hrant (00:10:53):

which was adopted in November.

Hrant (00:10:56):

And so he's trying to show that he's very firm with what he's trying to achieve.

Hrant (00:11:04):

So he is trying to reinforce American imperialism, which is vital right now because

Hrant (00:11:13):

given that America has right now lots of deaths and lots of internal crisis.

Hrant (00:11:20):

U.S.

Hrant (00:11:21):

desperately needs new finances, new resources.

Hrant (00:11:24):

So he's hungry for resources, trying to find them elsewhere.

Hrant (00:11:30):

And that's why we can see the tariff policy.

Hrant (00:11:32):

We can see attack on Venezuela,

Hrant (00:11:35):

discussion on attacking Greenland and other places which are resource rich.

Hrant (00:11:42):

So Trump will try to create a foundation for new prosperity for America in the 21st

Hrant (00:11:49):

century,

Hrant (00:11:50):

because right now America has exhausted its resources for development.

Hrant (00:11:56):

A lot of internal crises are there right now.

Hrant (00:12:01):

So either America has to deal very accurately with its own domestic situation,

Hrant (00:12:08):

Or it might try to find all the resources outside and export all its instability

Hrant (00:12:13):

towards other countries,

Hrant (00:12:15):

other regions,

Hrant (00:12:16):

and try to improve situation internally with harsh foreign policy.

Hrant (00:12:24):

I think that's his overall agenda.

Hrant (00:12:27):

And of course, it's about resources.

Hrant (00:12:29):

It's about influence.

Hrant (00:12:30):

And it's about a grand strategy of acquiring resources from all over the world.

Hovik (00:12:34):

Hrant,

Hovik (00:12:35):

for the past five years,

Hovik (00:12:38):

it seems like Armenians have been forced to watch lessons on geopolitics.

Hovik (00:12:46):

And I think that this may be another learning experience for many Armenians,

Hovik (00:12:52):

even though I'm not sure if Armenians are good students of geopolitics nowadays.

Hovik (00:12:58):

What lessons can we extract for Armenia from this incident that happened with Venezuela?

Hrant (00:13:06):

Well, today we have heard comments by Azerbaijani president and he expressed a very

Hrant (00:13:14):

similar approach as Vucic.

Hrant (00:13:19):

He said that international law doesn't work and what works is the policy and who is

Hrant (00:13:27):

capable and who is strong on the ground.

Hrant (00:13:31):

I think that it's not about theory,

Hrant (00:13:33):

but it's about the approach of Azerbaijan,

Hrant (00:13:36):

which declares that it does not see international law working,

Hrant (00:13:40):

which is very important.

Hrant (00:13:41):

So even if international law to some extent is working globally,

Hrant (00:13:46):

but in this region,

Hrant (00:13:47):

it will not be working because Aliyev rejects it.

Hrant (00:13:51):

That's first.

Hrant (00:13:52):

Second, if you do not protect yourself, no one will do.

Hrant (00:13:56):

For example, Russians or Chinese or Brazil or other countries or United States.

Hrant (00:14:02):

You should do your job.

Hrant (00:14:04):

And then another job which you should do is acquire alliances.

Hrant (00:14:09):

International law does not work by itself.

Hrant (00:14:11):

International law works by reinforcement.

Hrant (00:14:14):

And reinforcement might come with alliances.

Hrant (00:14:18):

And alliances might also use international law as a glue.

Hrant (00:14:22):

But international law does not come first yet.

Hrant (00:14:25):

It's third part of the equation.

Hrant (00:14:27):

First,

Hrant (00:14:28):

your own policy,

Hrant (00:14:29):

second, alliances,

Hrant (00:14:30):

and then international law,

Hrant (00:14:31):

not vice versa,

Hrant (00:14:32):

which is very important.

Hrant (00:14:34):

Another thing is that as of now, every country's sovereignty is under question.

Hrant (00:14:44):

First,

Hrant (00:14:45):

strong countries and the West do not recognize leadership of the majority of the

Hrant (00:14:50):

countries in the world.

Hrant (00:14:51):

Every country is kind of in a half legitimacy state of affairs.

Hrant (00:14:58):

And the Western leaders,

Hrant (00:14:59):

for example,

Hrant (00:15:00):

they always question legitimacy of any other leaders in the world.

Hrant (00:15:04):

And they can say, you are democratic, you are non-democratic.

Hrant (00:15:08):

So either you play these games or you find another sources of legitimacy,

Hrant (00:15:14):

which is also important.

Hrant (00:15:16):

And the last lesson, which I would say, is that you should be very strategic about your future.

Hrant (00:15:21):

Because if you try playing short-term games,

Hrant (00:15:26):

like Venezuela did last 20 years.

Hrant (00:15:29):

They were trying to adopt Bolivarian approach and so on,

Hrant (00:15:35):

but it was very tactical in every point.

Hrant (00:15:39):

But if you don't have strategy,

Hrant (00:15:40):

ground strategy,

Hrant (00:15:41):

I would say,

Hrant (00:15:42):

of implementing your ideology,

Hrant (00:15:43):

of reinforcing your state,

Hrant (00:15:45):

of assuring peace and prosperity of your country,

Hrant (00:15:49):

you will fail.

Hrant (00:15:50):

And it's not only U.S.

Hrant (00:15:51):

fault.

Hrant (00:15:52):

I mean, Venezuela failed long before 2026, frankly speaking.

Hrant (00:15:57):

So you should reinforce your state by yourself first and primarily.

Hrant (00:16:01):

So hoping that someone from another country,

Hrant (00:16:06):

from U.S., from Russia,

Hrant (00:16:07):

from Brussels and elsewhere,

Hrant (00:16:09):

will come and fix your country is a delusion which has cost Armenia too much.

Hrant (00:16:16):

So those are the lessons which I would like Armenians to learn.

Hovik (00:16:21):

Yeah, indeed, Hrant, points well taken.

Hovik (00:16:26):

So today is Christmas Day in Armenia,

Hovik (00:16:29):

and Christmas celebrations,

Hovik (00:16:32):

I would say,

Hovik (00:16:33):

did not take place in a peaceful and calm atmosphere,

Hovik (00:16:37):

as Pashinyan has escalated his attack against the Armenian Apostolic Church.

Hovik (00:16:43):

On Christmas Day, state media didn't cover the official Christmas Mass from Etchmiadzin.

Hovik (00:16:48):

At least I wasn't able to catch it.

Hovik (00:16:51):

Meanwhile, Pashinyan attended the fake Christmas Mass or liturgy by one of the renegade

Hovik (00:16:58):

bishops where the name of the Catholicos was omitted.

Hovik (00:17:02):

Days ago,

Hovik (00:17:03):

Pashinyan had doubled down on his strategy,

Hovik (00:17:06):

and along with the ten renegade bishops,

Hovik (00:17:09):

two of whom were signed remotely,

Hovik (00:17:13):

but the list is headed after Pashinyan is headed by Archbishop Hovnan Derderian of

Hovik (00:17:21):

the Western Diocese.

Hovik (00:17:24):

So they basically rehashed a statement that Pashinyan had made previously,

Hovik (00:17:30):

a month ago,

Hovik (00:17:31):

his so-called vision of reforming the Armenian Church.

Hovik (00:17:35):

And some points from this statement include the necessity to remove the Catholicos,

Hovik (00:17:42):

the election of a caretaker Catholicos, or a Catholicos vicar.

Hovik (00:17:47):

I don't know what that means.

Hovik (00:17:50):

The statement also kept referring to the Armenian Apostolic Church as the Apostolic

Hovik (00:17:58):

Church of Armenia,

Hovik (00:18:00):

which to me is a very important distinction.

Hovik (00:18:05):

And then, of course,

Hovik (00:18:06):

adoption of church charter,

Hovik (00:18:09):

establishing mechanisms for ethics and principles of clergy,

Hovik (00:18:14):

which is all BS in my opinion.

Hovik (00:18:19):

Pashinyan, in my opinion,

Hovik (00:18:20):

wants to do the same with the Armenian church,

Hovik (00:18:24):

the same that he has done with the courts and justice system,

Hovik (00:18:28):

to co-opt them and to make them his tools.

Hovik (00:18:31):

But there also might be some wider-ranging repercussions from Pashinyan's move.

Hovik (00:18:39):

What sort of stage is Pashinyan setting up for 2026, Hrant, between him and the church?

Hovik (00:18:47):

And what can we expect as the year moves forward?

Hrant (00:18:52):

Okay,

Hrant (00:18:53):

these days I have had several discussions with my friends in church who are

Hrant (00:19:01):

currently serving in the church or are supporting it and who are involved

Hrant (00:19:07):

significantly.

Hrant (00:19:09):

So, I'll try to share this insight with the public as well.

Hrant (00:19:15):

First,

Hrant (00:19:16):

regarding the media,

Hrant (00:19:17):

it's also important to note that the broadcasting of the church TV channel,

Hrant (00:19:25):

Shoghakat TV,

Hrant (00:19:27):

has been stopped lately.

Hrant (00:19:28):

So, it is also important.

Hrant (00:19:30):

Not only Pashinyan is trying to silent Catholicos on the state media, but also he's...

Hrant (00:19:38):

silencing the church's TV channel.

Hrant (00:19:41):

And it is not about Catholicos, it's about church.

Hrant (00:19:44):

So that's the first important thing.

Hrant (00:19:47):

Another thing is that when Pashinyan is trying to distinguish Catholicos and the

Hrant (00:19:52):

church,

Hrant (00:19:53):

he is clearly bullshitting because he has made several steps which are targeting

Hrant (00:19:59):

the church as an institution,

Hrant (00:20:01):

not the Catholicos himself.

Hrant (00:20:02):

For example, lately there was a new law adopted that limits church's ability to

Hrant (00:20:08):

acquire and govern land.

Hovik (00:20:12):

Does it limit it or does it completely remove it?

Hovik (00:20:14):

Basically, it's transforming the,

Hovik (00:20:17):

you know,

Hovik (00:20:18):

it wouldn't allow the Armenian Apostolic Church to own property as far as I know.

Hrant (00:20:24):

As far as I know, it's regarding the new property, not the existing.

Asbed (00:20:28):

Yeah, additional property.

Hrant (00:20:30):

That is why I'm saying limiting.

Hrant (00:20:31):

Yeah, that is why I'm saying limiting.

Hrant (00:20:35):

Otherwise, it would be just renting, let's say.

Hrant (00:20:40):

So it's an institutional thing,

Hrant (00:20:42):

and there are lots of other institutional things,

Hrant (00:20:44):

including those so-called reforms,

Hrant (00:20:46):

which are targeting the church as an institution.

Hrant (00:20:52):

Another funny thing is how Pashinyan has gathered all those bishops who were not

Hrant (00:21:01):

wearing crosses,

Hrant (00:21:03):

and in his statement,

Hrant (00:21:06):

in that statement that they have signed,

Hrant (00:21:10):

first surname was Nikol Pashinyan,

Hrant (00:21:13):

prime minister of Armenia,

Hrant (00:21:15):

and then names of those bishops,

Hrant (00:21:17):

10 out of 51,

Hrant (00:21:20):

which Armenian church has left right now.

Hrant (00:21:22):

So this is clearly a try to directly govern the church, which is forbidden by the constitution.

Hrant (00:21:32):

So it's also another thing which is...

Hrant (00:21:36):

noteworthy beforehand Pashinyan was you know kind of trying to use his his own

Hrant (00:21:45):

legitimacy or own media power and of course informally he was using state

Hrant (00:21:53):

mechanisms but right now he is directly using state mechanism which is a change

Hrant (00:21:59):

also noteworthy that in this in this

Hrant (00:22:05):

In this rally, which he has today organized,

Hrant (00:22:08):

there were many people which were brought by the administrative resources.

Hrant (00:22:13):

Beforehand, he was trying to gather people on their own will.

Hrant (00:22:19):

And that is why the crowds were very, very small.

Hrant (00:22:22):

And today,

Hrant (00:22:23):

there was a leak of demand by the head of a hospital who has asked the employees to

Hrant (00:22:33):

participate.

Hrant (00:22:34):

in the rally.

Hrant (00:22:35):

So we know one such case,

Hrant (00:22:37):

but I assume all the state-run hospitals and educational institutions have had this

Hrant (00:22:46):

agenda as well.

Hrant (00:22:48):

So at least some of the employees did participate.

Hrant (00:22:54):

And finally,

Hrant (00:22:55):

in the beginning, there were some 5,000,

Hrant (00:22:57):

but when they reached the church in the center of Yerevan,

Hrant (00:23:01):

two-thirds of those or even more

Hrant (00:23:04):

have you know disappeared so they they came in the beginning so that their

Hrant (00:23:11):

employers could see that they came and they were not fired afterwards but then they

Hrant (00:23:17):

have left so this shows that the crowd that Pashinyan has gathered has nothing to

Hrant (00:23:23):

do with his agenda or at least two-thirds of his crowd or 70-75 percent and other

Hrant (00:23:30):

things which are also important to note

Hrant (00:23:32):

That's basically what Pashnyan says.

Hrant (00:23:35):

He is rejecting apostolic nature of Armenian church.

Hrant (00:23:39):

Because Armenian apostolic church means that apostles have created it.

Hrant (00:23:44):

Apostles Tade and Bartholomeus.

Hrant (00:23:47):

And Pashinyan said that Terdat III and Grigor Lusavorich have created.

Hrant (00:23:56):

Which is basically the same approach as Russian Empire has shown.

Hrant (00:24:02):

200 years ago when it tried to limit Armenian Church's influence and called it

Hrant (00:24:08):

Gregorian Church after Gregory the Illuminator or Grigor Lusavorich.

Hrant (00:24:13):

So basically it declares the church as state-run but not as a separate institution.

Hrant (00:24:20):

So basically it's a heresy that state has created the church.

Hrant (00:24:24):

The church, as Catholicos says,

Hrant (00:24:27):

And it is opinion of the church.

Hrant (00:24:29):

So, Catholicos said that the church belongs to Jesus, not to the current time.

Hrant (00:24:36):

And Pashinyan says the church belongs to the state.

Hrant (00:24:40):

So, basically, he's rejecting the apostolic nature of Armenian church.

Hrant (00:24:46):

So, he was trying very hard to organize tensions inside the church.

Hrant (00:24:55):

And they are pushing every priest separately.

Hrant (00:24:59):

For example, I've heard that there were governors of provinces of Armenia are directly calling

Hrant (00:25:05):

different clergy,

Hrant (00:25:08):

even low-grade clergy representatives,

Hrant (00:25:11):

to push them,

Hrant (00:25:13):

to force them to write or not write something on Facebook,

Hrant (00:25:16):

and so on and so forth.

Hrant (00:25:17):

So the whole government mechanism is used.

Hrant (00:25:22):

to attack the Armenian Apostolic Church and what we are observing the ultimate goal

Hrant (00:25:27):

is to leave Armenian Apostolic Church without its sovereignty and without its

Hrant (00:25:33):

historical legitimacy and recreate it as a state-run church which will be just used

Hrant (00:25:42):

by the state as a tool or you know will be kind of

Hrant (00:25:50):

very close to what they have in Scotland or England or Presbyterian church or

Hrant (00:25:56):

something like that.

Hrant (00:25:57):

So those cases were viewed as a model cases.

Hrant (00:26:03):

So as of now, Pashinyan is in the middle of that process.

Hrant (00:26:08):

And obviously he is failing on one hand because he was not able to acquire new

Hrant (00:26:15):

support from new members of church what he was able to gather through because of

Hrant (00:26:22):

some internal tensions within the church which have existed before or because of

Hrant (00:26:27):

his pressure on some clergy representatives or because of money and some other

Hrant (00:26:35):

tools anyway what he has got that's very limited that is why he started repeating

Hrant (00:26:42):

the places of worship

Hrant (00:26:44):

He was trying to cover as many churches as possible,

Hrant (00:26:47):

but he has passed through four churches and he is now repeating and passing from

Hrant (00:26:53):

one to another.

Hrant (00:26:54):

But at the same time,

Hrant (00:26:56):

we should recognize that if Pashinyan will win in 2026 and will continue having the

Hrant (00:27:03):

external support which he has right now,

Hrant (00:27:05):

He will have five more years to attack the church,

Hrant (00:27:08):

and it will be very hard to keep the church viable under these repressions.

Hrant (00:27:15):

I want to remember that four bishops, including two archbishops, are jailed right now.

Hovik (00:27:21):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:27:22):

I mean, some explain Pashinyan's motivations by saying that he's basically looking for

Hovik (00:27:29):

revenge because in 2020,

Hovik (00:27:34):

the church called for his resignation.

Hovik (00:27:37):

Others,

Hovik (00:27:38):

for instance, are recalling that shortly before this incident began,

Hovik (00:27:42):

the Catholicos went to Bern and talked loudly about the rights of Artsakh,

Hovik (00:27:49):

the cultural legacy and cultural rights and also human rights of Artsakh's

Hovik (00:27:56):

refugees.

Hovik (00:27:58):

And so others are explaining it by geopolitics.

Hovik (00:28:03):

What do you think,

Hovik (00:28:04):

in your opinion,

Hovik (00:28:05):

is the chief factor or motivation that contributes to Pashinyan being so intent on

Hovik (00:28:16):

doing what he's doing right now?

Hrant (00:28:18):

It is obviously geopolitical.

Hrant (00:28:19):

It's not revenge.

Hrant (00:28:20):

Of course, he hates church, but that's a very insignificant thing.

Hrant (00:28:24):

Right now, it is geopolitical because Catholicos not only talked about human rights,

Hrant (00:28:28):

but he also was talking about political rights of Artsakh,

Hrant (00:28:33):

and he was also talking about statehood of Artsakh.

Hrant (00:28:36):

So he is clearly opposing so-called peace agenda of Pashinyan and pro-Turkish

Hrant (00:28:42):

policies of Pashinyan require him attacking Armenian church at the next step.

Hrant (00:28:46):

So obviously this is the next agenda.

Hrant (00:28:49):

And since he is crushing all sovereign institutions of Armenia, white church should be omitted.

Hrant (00:28:55):

So it's just on the list.

Hovik (00:28:58):

Okay.

Hovik (00:29:00):

All right,

Hovik (00:29:01):

for the next section of our discussion,

Hovik (00:29:03):

I think we want to talk about a recent MPG poll that was published.

Hovik (00:29:10):

And Hrant, you are our favorite analyst to discuss polls with.

Hovik (00:29:15):

So I hope you don't mind if we bring in you with too many questions from this poll.

Hovik (00:29:22):

So this poll was released by MPG, which is Gallup International Armenia.

Hovik (00:29:28):

It has an error margin of plus or minus 3%,

Hovik (00:29:34):

and it was conducted toward the last week of December,

Hovik (00:29:37):

essentially.

Hovik (00:29:39):

It addresses a number of things,

Hovik (00:29:41):

like public mood,

Hovik (00:29:43):

agreement with the government,

Hovik (00:29:46):

and a lot of questions on actually just drilling down into public mood solidarity.

Hovik (00:29:51):

So I want to begin with slides three to five of this poll.

Hovik (00:29:57):

which talk about the direction of the country and what people consider the most

Hovik (00:30:02):

important issues.

Hovik (00:30:06):

If you're watching this on YouTube, you will see the slides as well.

Hovik (00:30:11):

Slide number three says,

Hovik (00:30:15):

which are the most important issues in front of Armenia today,

Hovik (00:30:20):

the most important problems?

Hovik (00:30:22):

And 37.1% said security issues.

Hovik (00:30:29):

The number two on that list was low social benefits and low salary.

Hovik (00:30:40):

Number three is the financial situation with 13.8%.

Hovik (00:30:47):

Number four is unemployment, similarly in that same range.

Hovik (00:30:51):

inflation.

Hovik (00:30:52):

So it's all about either security or economics, something that we have seen previously before.

Hovik (00:30:58):

So, okay, that's one of the questions.

Hovik (00:31:00):

The other is, is everything going right or wrong in Armenia today?

Hovik (00:31:06):

I would say just by looking at this graph,

Hovik (00:31:09):

you would see that a majority think that the country is going in the wrong

Hovik (00:31:15):

direction.

Hovik (00:31:16):

Although I would say that a lot of the respondents also,

Hovik (00:31:20):

there's a significant number of respondents that the country is going in the right

Hovik (00:31:23):

direction.

Hovik (00:31:24):

And then how do you assess the public mood in Armenia, which is slide number five.

Hovik (00:31:29):

Some just, you know, apathy.

Hovik (00:31:31):

32% said they're apathetic.

Hovik (00:31:36):

31% assessed the public mood as tense,

Hovik (00:31:41):

and only 17.8%, or actually sort of,

Hovik (00:31:43):

yeah, altogether about 25% or 26% said that the situation is good.

Hovik (00:31:53):

Okay,

Hovik (00:31:54):

so over 60% of the respondents view Armenia's political situation as very tense or

Hovik (00:32:00):

rather tense.

Hovik (00:32:01):

Findings align with the visible polarization,

Hovik (00:32:05):

the church-state conflict that we talked about,

Hovik (00:32:07):

and the elite infighting.

Hovik (00:32:09):

And this data,

Hovik (00:32:10):

I think,

Hovik (00:32:11):

provides a good quantitative confirmation of the unease that we are experiencing.

Hovik (00:32:17):

So to begin with, Hrant, what are the repercussions of such a tense state in our society today?

Hrant (00:32:23):

Well,

Hrant (00:32:24):

in reality,

Hrant (00:32:25):

what I see from these results is that despite all inputs and all tries by Pashinyan

Hrant (00:32:35):

to increase the tension,

Hrant (00:32:37):

it does not work as much as he wants.

Hrant (00:32:39):

So subjectively,

Hrant (00:32:42):

we see that only some 27% see the social situation in Slovenia as good,

Hrant (00:32:50):

while majority see negative trends.

Hrant (00:32:53):

Objectively, 36% assess situation as positive, while 56% assess it as negative.

Hrant (00:33:02):

So, objectively, people consider it to be better than subjectively, which is important.

Hrant (00:33:08):

So,

Hrant (00:33:10):

I mean, the emotional state of affairs is on one side,

Hrant (00:33:14):

and as people assess their own life and own situation,

Hrant (00:33:19):

it's not as bad.

Hrant (00:33:22):

It is also because Armenians are not very prone to have a conflict on the,

Hrant (00:33:27):

you know,

Hrant (00:33:28):

besides government,

Hrant (00:33:32):

internal conflicts about politics.

Hrant (00:33:34):

So people would rather stop communicating with each other than have fighting with

Hrant (00:33:38):

each other over the politics.

Hrant (00:33:40):

In Armenia, it's culturally not a not acceptable thing, frankly speaking.

Hrant (00:33:46):

That is why, despite all this, you know, all these new and new

Hrant (00:33:50):

agendas of you know new clashes regarding the church regarding other issues you

Hrant (00:33:59):

know we don't see this fighting in the streets we don't see that and majority of

Hrant (00:34:03):

people look at it as a you know as a cinema some support more opposed but basically

Hrant (00:34:12):

most of people are trying to be away of this and just just you know not be involved

Hrant (00:34:19):

which is important

Hrant (00:34:21):

to understand all these trends.

Hrant (00:34:23):

Another thing is that in last five years,

Hrant (00:34:26):

this is lowest percentage of security as a top issue compared to what we have seen

Hrant (00:34:32):

in previous polls.

Hrant (00:34:34):

So right now it's 37%.

Hrant (00:34:35):

Previously it was up to 90,

Hrant (00:34:40):

95% because there were several security related issues combined and all those were

Hrant (00:34:45):

very, very high.

Hrant (00:34:46):

And economic issues were very highly suppressed.

Hrant (00:34:50):

So now we see economic issues increasing the importance and unemployment,

Hrant (00:34:56):

inflation,

Hrant (00:34:58):

low wages and pensions are increasing in their rate.

Hrant (00:35:04):

This we have not observed since 2019, frankly speaking.

Hrant (00:35:08):

Yes, security still is top priority, but not as high as it used to be.

Hrant (00:35:13):

So it opens the space for non-political discussion as well in the country,

Hrant (00:35:18):

which some of the powers are trying to have in this electoral campaign.

Hrant (00:35:22):

Although I think still the most important issue will be security.

Hrant (00:35:27):

But again, economic factors combined, they are very high already.

Hrant (00:35:31):

So it's also important to understand.

Hrant (00:35:34):

So as of now,

Hrant (00:35:35):

I see that objectively,

Hrant (00:35:37):

the tensions in the country are decreasing,

Hrant (00:35:39):

despite Pashinyan's campaign.

Hrant (00:35:43):

And his campaign,

Hrant (00:35:44):

which was in 2021,

Hrant (00:35:46):

very aggressive,

Hrant (00:35:47):

very divisive,

Hrant (00:35:48):

was successful because the tensions were much higher at the time.

Hrant (00:35:53):

Now tensions are lower.

Hrant (00:35:55):

And that is why it's a divisive campaign.

Hrant (00:35:57):

I think it will not be as successful as it used to be five years ago.

Hovik (00:36:02):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:36:03):

So high expenses and low wages is consistent with the fact that the government has

Hovik (00:36:08):

not dealt with poverty.

Hovik (00:36:09):

Even Pashinyan has admitted that a high level of poverty exists in the country after

Hovik (00:36:15):

eight years in office.

Hovik (00:36:18):

So why hasn't the poverty come down at all?

Hrant (00:36:22):

Well, officially, we have 2%.

Hrant (00:36:25):

percentage points, decrease of poverty last year.

Hrant (00:36:29):

But frankly speaking, of course, there are very significant problems.

Hrant (00:36:34):

For example, pensions.

Hovik (00:36:36):

I mean, can we say what the overall, what is the overall poverty rate as well?

Hovik (00:36:41):

Because 2% sounds like a lot.

Hovik (00:36:44):

But when you look at the whole number, I think it's like something in the 20 percentage or?

Hrant (00:36:48):

Yeah, it was kind of 21.5 or something.

Hrant (00:36:52):

So the latest figure was 21.5.

Hrant (00:36:55):

five or something.

Hrant (00:36:56):

And a year ago, it was 2% higher.

Hrant (00:37:00):

So it's not really a low number.

Hrant (00:37:03):

We had similar numbers in 2018 as well, frankly speaking.

Hrant (00:37:07):

So the result of Pashinyan is not significant.

Hrant (00:37:10):

Of course, there was some but not significant methodological change.

Hrant (00:37:14):

But still,

Hrant (00:37:15):

what I want to say is,

Hrant (00:37:16):

you know,

Hrant (00:37:17):

we have big troubles with pensions,

Hrant (00:37:20):

incomparable prices.

Hrant (00:37:21):

Pensions are right now lower than in 2015.

Hrant (00:37:25):

That's first thing.

Hrant (00:37:26):

Then we have collapsing agriculture.

Hrant (00:37:29):

And it is also important because in villages, one million people or a third of population lives.

Hrant (00:37:36):

So one third of the population is struggling because of collapse of agriculture.

Hrant (00:37:41):

One, six or 15 to 20 percent of population are receiving pensions.

Hrant (00:37:46):

They are also in trouble because of low

Hrant (00:37:49):

pensions so at least this half of population is in trouble that is obvious and then

Hrant (00:37:55):

we have some some issues and also some achievements economically because uh frankly

Hrant (00:38:02):

speaking unemployment has gone down significantly and i would say this is uh

Hrant (00:38:09):

also an achievement, partly by this government, by the way.

Hrant (00:38:12):

But in many other cases,

Hrant (00:38:15):

we see that the inequality is still high and it's more and more structurized.

Hrant (00:38:20):

So we see very insustainable trends right now in the social sphere and lots of

Hrant (00:38:28):

things need to be done.

Hrant (00:38:29):

Especially the issue of pensions is a big trouble because the number of pensioners

Hrant (00:38:34):

will start growing again since next year because,

Hrant (00:38:39):

you know, There was some slowing of growing of pensioners and of aging of population because

Hrant (00:38:45):

there was an echo of the Second World War.

Hrant (00:38:49):

Now we have restarted process of aging in Armenia,

Hrant (00:38:53):

so pensions will become more and more an issue.

Hovik (00:38:57):

Given all these insights that we just talked about,

Hovik (00:39:01):

what kind of a campaign do you think that the opposition should be running?

Hovik (00:39:05):

in the upcoming elections?

Hovik (00:39:07):

And is the opposition ready?

Hovik (00:39:09):

Do you see any signs that they are reading these polls and they are able to

Hovik (00:39:15):

structure their campaigns to have maximum impact?

Hrant (00:39:20):

Well, right now, opposition is somewhat following these polls.

Hrant (00:39:24):

And not only that, opposition has some polling organizations by themselves as well.

Hrant (00:39:31):

So at least I know

Hrant (00:39:34):

Almost all of major opposition subjects have their own polling organizations.

Hrant (00:39:40):

So it is somewhat different from 2021 when opposition was kind of blind towards these results.

Hrant (00:39:48):

And now it is ready to be more efficient, at least.

Hrant (00:39:52):

That's the first thing.

Hrant (00:39:54):

Another thing is that opposition is, of course, very divided right now.

Hrant (00:40:00):

last year, 2025,

Hrant (00:40:01):

was marked with very high tensions between the Pativunin bloc and the Armenian

Hrant (00:40:08):

bloc.

Hrant (00:40:09):

So they were attacking each other and trying to discuss the issue of who is to

Hrant (00:40:13):

blame for bringing Pashinyan in power in 2018.

Hrant (00:40:17):

And in fact,

Hrant (00:40:18):

this is a historical question,

Hrant (00:40:19):

not a matter of political discussion,

Hrant (00:40:22):

but still they somehow managed to eat each other with this question and they lost a

Hrant (00:40:28):

share of credibility

Hrant (00:40:30):

Both of them.

Hrant (00:40:32):

And then the Mer Dzevov block appeared,

Hrant (00:40:36):

which has to be presented as a party in the beginning of 2026,

Hrant (00:40:41):

I think.

Hrant (00:40:42):

But here is the thing that the leader of this block was captured by Pashinyan and

Hrant (00:40:49):

brought to jail.

Hrant (00:40:50):

He spent six months there.

Hrant (00:40:51):

And now he's serving since end of December.

Hrant (00:40:57):

He's serving his term at home.

Hrant (00:41:00):

So he's still... He's under house arrest.

Hrant (00:41:07):

Yeah, he's still a prisoner.

Hrant (00:41:08):

And politically,

Hrant (00:41:09):

his situation has worsened because while he was in jail,

Hrant (00:41:14):

he could spread political statements.

Hrant (00:41:17):

But right now, he cannot do that.

Hrant (00:41:19):

He cannot do even that.

Hrant (00:41:21):

So that's an interesting thing.

Hrant (00:41:23):

So personally, for him, situation has improved, but politically, it has worsened.

Hrant (00:41:28):

So...

Hrant (00:41:30):

I've seen that when he himself has stated that he's participating in politics,

Hrant (00:41:37):

the approval rate of his party was very high.

Hrant (00:41:40):

But since then, it has dropped significantly, basically twice.

Hrant (00:41:45):

So right now, it's...

Hrant (00:41:48):

Very unclear situation on the opposition ground.

Hrant (00:41:51):

And I'm not sure opposition will find strong ground to fight.

Hrant (00:41:55):

But what I see is that they are creating some grounds and they're in search of their agenda.

Hrant (00:42:03):

And let's see what they will offer.

Hrant (00:42:05):

Because the offer of Pashinyan is clear and visible.

Hrant (00:42:09):

But the offer of opposition is yet information.

Hovik (00:42:13):

So not from this poll,

Hovik (00:42:14):

but from previous polls,

Hovik (00:42:15):

we've seen that the traditional opposition parties have scored,

Hovik (00:42:20):

you know, I mean...

Hovik (00:42:22):

They're number two and number three after Pashinyan and then maybe now with Mer Dzevov.

Hovik (00:42:28):

But it's clear that Pashinyan is still leading the polls.

Hovik (00:42:35):

And that has led to some opposition parties,

Hovik (00:42:37):

even Mer Dzevov,

Hovik (00:42:38):

to distance themselves from the other opposition parties.

Hovik (00:42:43):

So the Mer Dzevov

Hovik (00:42:45):

leader who is currently running the movement,

Hovik (00:42:49):

Narek Karapetyan,

Hovik (00:42:50):

Samvel's nephew,

Hovik (00:42:52):

has said that we're not going to cooperate or go into an alliance with any of the

Hovik (00:42:57):

main opposition parties,

Hovik (00:42:58):

either Robert Kocharyan or Sargsyan.

Hovik (00:43:01):

Meanwhile, some smaller opposition parties have called,

Hovik (00:43:05):

so I'm talking about the Wings of,

Hovik (00:43:07):

sorry, Wings of Unity,

Hovik (00:43:09):

by Arman Tatoyan,

Hovik (00:43:11):

who has said that

Hovik (00:43:14):

basically presidents number two and presidents number three should discontinue

Hovik (00:43:18):

their campaign and declare that they're not participating in order for them to win.

Hovik (00:43:23):

We also know that the Pashinyan regime has lowered the threshold for individual

Hovik (00:43:28):

parties to clear the elections and it has increased the threshold

Hovik (00:43:33):

for alliances,

Hovik (00:43:34):

so it's now more difficult as an electoral alliance to clear the threshold and go

Hovik (00:43:42):

into the parliament.

Hovik (00:43:43):

What do you think should be the strategy for opposition parties,

Hovik (00:43:48):

and should they join one big alliance,

Hovik (00:43:50):

for instance,

Hovik (00:43:51):

and every one of them without any exception?

Hovik (00:43:56):

Is that even realistic?

Hovik (00:43:58):

And what do you think about these statements from Armand Tatoyan and Narek

Hovik (00:44:03):

Karapetyan,

Hovik (00:44:04):

who are trying to distance themselves from the main opposition,

Hovik (00:44:08):

parliamentary opposition parties?

Hrant (00:44:10):

Well,

Hrant (00:44:11):

frankly speaking, this divisive approach that we are the only and so on is not very efficient in the

Hrant (00:44:20):

situation where authorities are clearly

Hrant (00:44:25):

heading in authoritarian direction and harshing the environment.

Hrant (00:44:31):

And in reality, very many people are afraid to speak out.

Hrant (00:44:36):

And in this situation,

Hrant (00:44:37):

you know,

Hrant (00:44:38):

playing in their game,

Hrant (00:44:43):

I don't think it will be beneficial for opposition,

Hrant (00:44:45):

frankly speaking.

Hrant (00:44:47):

And obviously,

Hrant (00:44:48):

this trend has been set by the government because Pashinyan has declared,

Hrant (00:44:52):

you know,

Hrant (00:44:53):

this black and white division where white those are black and since then many people are

Hrant (00:45:00):

trying to distance themselves from the main opposition parties and that is why and

Hrant (00:45:06):

from especially those who are regarding the previous governments so that is why

Hrant (00:45:13):

people somehow they are divided and the divided impera rule the roman rule

Hrant (00:45:21):

divided impera or divided rule, is in play in Armenia.

Hrant (00:45:27):

So Pashinyan has effectively divided all opposition.

Hrant (00:45:32):

And if opposition plays this game, I don't think opposition will succeed.

Hrant (00:45:38):

So eventually,

Hrant (00:45:39):

I think,

Hrant (00:45:41):

towards the elections,

Hrant (00:45:42):

opposition will have to approach at least some form of coalition.

Hrant (00:45:46):

At least some form of coalition should be found by opposition.

Hrant (00:45:52):

maybe a kind of Georgian opposition has achieved in 2024.

Hrant (00:45:58):

For example,

Hrant (00:45:59):

they have signed a charity where they have presented the main principles of

Hrant (00:46:04):

opposition.

Hrant (00:46:05):

So this will also mean that if altogether they might form a coalition,

Hrant (00:46:10):

although it will be very fluid coalition,

Hrant (00:46:13):

but at least it will mean the governmental change in Armenia.

Hrant (00:46:17):

So at least that will create a new space and

Hrant (00:46:21):

they will declare by that that they are ready to cooperate,

Hrant (00:46:24):

at least after the election,

Hrant (00:46:25):

maybe not before,

Hrant (00:46:26):

but after.

Hrant (00:46:27):

But if they will refuse to cooperate,

Hrant (00:46:29):

that will mean that they will not be able to form a coalition.

Hrant (00:46:31):

So I think towards the elections, their stance will change.

Hrant (00:46:36):

And by the way,

Hrant (00:46:38):

both parties which you have cited right now,

Hrant (00:46:41):

both of them represent very new parties.

Hrant (00:46:45):

So they don't have enough experience.

Hrant (00:46:47):

I think the more experience they will gain, the more their approaches will change as well.

Asbed (00:46:53):

Regardless of who the opposition turns out to be in the elections,

Asbed (00:46:58):

to me,

Asbed (00:46:59):

it seems like they have a very real opportunity to capitalize on what is indicated

Asbed (00:47:05):

in these polls, because from an economic perspective,

Asbed (00:47:08):

there's a real opportunity to show that the government is not really doing a lot of

Asbed (00:47:13):

good for the common people.

Asbed (00:47:16):

Hrant, I want to talk about slide six and seven.

Asbed (00:47:19):

Security as well.

Asbed (00:47:20):

Oh, absolutely.

Asbed (00:47:21):

I was going to mention a little bit earlier, but you talked a little bit about that.

Asbed (00:47:26):

Even though the number of respondents about national security being the top concern

Asbed (00:47:30):

has decreased,

Asbed (00:47:31):

it still seems like it's the top concern for people.

Asbed (00:47:34):

And I don't know how you mesh that with this agenda of peace talk from Pashinyan,

Asbed (00:47:40):

because people are not feeling very secure in their own country.

Asbed (00:47:44):

So in response to slide six, 54% of the people said yes, and 42% of the people said no.

Asbed (00:47:53):

And in slide seven,

Asbed (00:47:55):

the poll shows that the vast majority of people are not afraid of expressing their

Asbed (00:47:59):

thoughts.

Asbed (00:48:00):

At least that's how they've responded.

Asbed (00:48:02):

So this is an interesting case for me in that there is a little bit of an embedded

Asbed (00:48:07):

optimism in these answers,

Asbed (00:48:08):

perhaps even

Asbed (00:48:10):

a little bit of defiance in slide seven, that they are not afraid of expressing themselves.

Asbed (00:48:15):

Do you think that this optimism,

Asbed (00:48:17):

if I'm correct in calling it optimism,

Asbed (00:48:20):

will translate to a higher turnout in the June 2026 elections?

Asbed (00:48:24):

And could the turnout result in a change of government in direction of the country?

Hrant (00:48:30):

Frankly speaking, I think that both represent delusion.

Hrant (00:48:35):

And I will try to explain why.

Hrant (00:48:37):

first regarding the so-called people like you can affect the government policy and

Hrant (00:48:42):

so on or situation in the country.

Hrant (00:48:45):

Since Pashinyan has came,

Hrant (00:48:47):

well, previous government was trying to show the situation as you cannot do anything.

Hrant (00:48:53):

You just have to obey the law and we will carry for the other stuff.

Hrant (00:48:57):

So that was a message by the previous government and it is very common for any

Hrant (00:49:03):

post-Soviet government.

Hrant (00:49:05):

And people really agreed to that.

Hrant (00:49:07):

They considered that they cannot do anything.

Hrant (00:49:11):

Although,

Hrant (00:49:12):

when there was any discontent in the country towards any issue,

Hrant (00:49:18):

the government was very cautious and tried to react or maybe change the policy.

Hrant (00:49:24):

And in many cases, they did.

Hrant (00:49:27):

So, in fact, the previous government was based on the very broad but not formalized consensus on

Hrant (00:49:34):

one hand. And on another hand, when they faced resistance, they changed the policies.

Hrant (00:49:40):

There have been many cases of that.

Hrant (00:49:43):

And since the government changed in 2018,

Hrant (00:49:47):

the new government declared that they listen to the people and that people get the

Hrant (00:49:51):

voice heard through them.

Hrant (00:49:55):

And since then, they do not rely on any consensus.

Hrant (00:50:03):

but they rely on narrative governing and also they do not listen to any discontent.

Hrant (00:50:09):

For example, regarding the church, majority opposes these policies.

Hrant (00:50:13):

Regarding the constitutional referendum, majority opposes.

Hrant (00:50:16):

Regarding Artsakh and regarding any issue government has made its top priority,

Hrant (00:50:21):

we will see that majority opposes.

Hrant (00:50:26):

What does majority support?

Hrant (00:50:27):

Well, first of all, majority does not support this government at all.

Hrant (00:50:31):

But at least majority of their supporters have some kind of personal sympathy and

Hrant (00:50:36):

there are some populist tools and so on.

Hrant (00:50:39):

So basically, the people are told that they have power in their hands.

Hrant (00:50:45):

And based on very harsh clash in the country and, of course, some people speaking out,

Hrant (00:50:54):

They say that, OK, right now we see that many people speak out.

Hrant (00:50:58):

So on the second question,

Hrant (00:50:59):

it was not you think that you have the freedom of speech,

Hrant (00:51:04):

but the people in Armenia have freedom of speech.

Hrant (00:51:07):

So people think that if there is criticism, it means that there is a free space for criticism.

Hrant (00:51:16):

It's not that they consider that they have this freedom of criticism,

Hrant (00:51:19):

because in reality,

Hrant (00:51:21):

many people are very restrained.

Hrant (00:51:23):

criticizing government or criticizing anything in Armenia.

Hrant (00:51:26):

And it is not only a political phenomenon,

Hrant (00:51:29):

but also a cultural phenomenon,

Hrant (00:51:30):

because Armenia is a post-totalitarian state as any other post-Soviet country.

Hrant (00:51:35):

And in every of these countries,

Hrant (00:51:38):

there are many social patterns that forbid discontent and forbid being opposing the

Hrant (00:51:45):

ruling narrative.

Hrant (00:51:46):

And any government is trying to utilize this, and this government is doing it very effectively.

Hrant (00:51:53):

So if you talk separately to people, you will see that they are afraid.

Hrant (00:51:58):

And many people are really afraid.

Hrant (00:52:00):

And I would say majority are afraid of speaking out.

Hrant (00:52:03):

But they think that if there are some people who speak out,

Hrant (00:52:07):

that means that there is freedom in Armenia.

Hrant (00:52:09):

That's very different from what has been happening in Armenia previously.

Hrant (00:52:13):

when they were speaking out but since they were hearing in the media that oh you

Hrant (00:52:19):

know there is you know Armenia is authoritarian which this current government which

Hrant (00:52:25):

was opposition back then was claiming Armenia to be then and I will tell you that I

Hrant (00:52:31):

mean I never had even remotely this much of political repression says now since

Hrant (00:52:37):

1991 so if

Hrant (00:52:40):

And remotely, they did not close as many political channels and so on and so forth.

Hrant (00:52:47):

And political prisoners, anything you might imagine.

Hrant (00:52:50):

So back then, people would consider that they don't have voice when they did.

Hrant (00:52:55):

And now it's opposite because the media narrative is telling them so.

Hrant (00:53:02):

So I think this is complete delusion that is based on reproduction of the common

Hrant (00:53:07):

narrative which they hear from media,

Hrant (00:53:09):

not observing in real life.

Hovik (00:53:11):

Hrant,

Hovik (00:53:12):

slide number eight through 13,

Hovik (00:53:15):

I think this poll really tried to dig into the issue of solidarity and trust in

Hovik (00:53:21):

institutions.

Hovik (00:53:22):

So five slides, all talking about different aspects of solidarity.

Hovik (00:53:27):

I wanna quickly go through them.

Hovik (00:53:29):

Slide number eight, how do you assess the overall political situation in Armenia?

Hovik (00:53:34):

Around 63% said that either

Hovik (00:53:38):

Very tense or somewhat tense.

Hovik (00:53:41):

Site number nine says, do you think there is a need to build solidarity within Armenian society?

Hovik (00:53:47):

And almost 90% said yes.

Hovik (00:53:53):

Slide number 10 says, what factors, in your opinion, hinder social solidarity in Armenia?

Hovik (00:53:59):

Number one with 32% is fake news and fake media.

Hovik (00:54:03):

Number two is social inequality with 27%.

Hovik (00:54:05):

Number three is distrust in public institutions at 26%.

Hovik (00:54:15):

Number four is political polarization at 21%.

Hovik (00:54:22):

So those are the top four issues that hinder social solidarity.

Hovik (00:54:30):

Slide number 11, to what extent do you trust the following institutions?

Hovik (00:54:35):

And without mentioning all the other ones,

Hovik (00:54:38):

the church with around 71% or 72% is the number,

Hovik (00:54:46):

the highest trusted institution.

Hovik (00:54:48):

And then slide number 12,

Hovik (00:54:49):

in your opinion,

Hovik (00:54:51):

which institutions should play a leading role in restoring social solidarity?

Hovik (00:54:57):

Number one is the church with 28%.

Hovik (00:54:59):

Number two is the state or the government with 21%.

Hovik (00:55:04):

All right.

Hovik (00:55:07):

And lastly,

Hovik (00:55:09):

slide number 13 says,

Hovik (00:55:11):

evaluate the extent to which each of the following figures can lead to the

Hovik (00:55:16):

spiritual and social healing and unity of society.

Hovik (00:55:20):

Number one is Mikhail Ajabahyan, Archbishop Mikhail Ajabahyan.

Hovik (00:55:28):

Number two is the Catholicos of all Armenians, Garegin II.

Hovik (00:55:33):

Let's skip all the other answers and go directly to the questions.

Hovik (00:55:38):

So we spent this past couple of months covering Pashinyan's,

Hovik (00:55:43):

I would say,

Hovik (00:55:44):

storm against the church,

Hovik (00:55:47):

the state versus church storm.

Hovik (00:55:49):

Yet the polls show people do not see religious or cultural differences as an issue.

Hovik (00:55:55):

In fact, they trust the church institution and church leaders.

Hovik (00:56:01):

In fact, this is very interesting because one of the previous episodes we were talking with

Hovik (00:56:05):

Benjamin Pogosian,

Hovik (00:56:06):

and this time I'm mentioning his name correctly.

Hovik (00:56:08):

But Benjamin said,

Hovik (00:56:10):

you know,

Hovik (00:56:11):

polls should distinguish between institutions and leaders of the institution.

Hovik (00:56:16):

It seems like in this poll,

Hovik (00:56:17):

both the leadership as well as the institution of the church has received high

Hovik (00:56:22):

marks.

Hovik (00:56:25):

What does this say about the current patterns of unrest in our country?

Hovik (00:56:31):

The government is trying to make a big deal out of this issue with the church,

Hovik (00:56:34):

but it seems like the polls say otherwise.

Hrant (00:56:40):

First of all, regarding the theoretical issue,

Hrant (00:56:42):

trust in institution versus trust in the head of the institution.

Hrant (00:56:48):

In reality, sociologically, it's not that highly distinguishable.

Hrant (00:56:51):

Of course, politically, it is a very different thing, but sociologically, it's not.

Hrant (00:56:57):

And usually the discrepancy is one, two or maybe three percent, not more.

Hrant (00:57:02):

So, for example,

Hrant (00:57:03):

if you see trust in government and trust in Pashinyan,

Hrant (00:57:08):

it's more or less the same.

Hrant (00:57:10):

It might be plus minus two percent, but not more.

Hrant (00:57:14):

And the same regarding the church.

Hrant (00:57:16):

So the Armenian Apostolic Church is under attack of this government basically since August 2018.

Hrant (00:57:23):

And since then, the approval rate of the church has been declining.

Hrant (00:57:28):

Before this government, it was about 72% trusting the church.

Hrant (00:57:33):

And then it went down to, you know, 60, 65, and then 50, and at some point even lower than 50.

Hrant (00:57:40):

But then, since Pashinyan restarted the attacks,

Hrant (00:57:44):

and especially he started attacking the institution since June 2025,

Hrant (00:57:50):

and especially after Azerbaijan's attack on Armenian

Hrant (00:57:53):

church, you know, I mean, verbal attack on Armenian church on Azerbaijani side.

Hrant (00:57:58):

And then Pashinyan has continued.

Hrant (00:58:01):

Since then, we see the reversal of the trend and we see the approval rate of Armenian church

Hrant (00:58:06):

growing back to some 71 to 72 percent,

Hrant (00:58:10):

which has been observed before the Pashinyan's government.

Hrant (00:58:13):

So before 2018.

Hrant (00:58:15):

So it is one important trend.

Hrant (00:58:18):

Of course,

Hrant (00:58:19):

I should mention that five institutions are represented here,

Hrant (00:58:24):

but if we look at other polls,

Hrant (00:58:26):

we see that there are some other institutions which also have significant support

Hrant (00:58:31):

on the population side.

Hrant (00:58:33):

That includes, for example, the army, which has similar support to the church, around 70%.

Hrant (00:58:38):

And then we have

Hrant (00:58:41):

rather high support of local governments, which is about 50 to 55 percent.

Hrant (00:58:48):

And then we have some support towards the police, which is 50 to 60 percent.

Hrant (00:58:54):

So the church is not only the only institution which has significant public

Hrant (00:58:59):

support,

Hrant (00:59:00):

but as of now,

Hrant (00:59:01):

church might be the first already.

Hrant (00:59:04):

But all this happened.

Hrant (00:59:06):

especially during last five to seven months.

Hrant (00:59:10):

Last half year basically has,

Hrant (00:59:12):

you know, brought trust towards church back for the significant portion of population.

Hrant (00:59:19):

And it is also due to the moral stance of the church.

Hrant (00:59:23):

And, you know,

Hrant (00:59:24):

church was,

Hrant (00:59:25):

you know,

Hrant (00:59:26):

using all these early Bolshevik narratives against the church,

Hrant (00:59:31):

which was made by the

Hrant (00:59:35):

by this government.

Hrant (00:59:37):

On one hand, it, of course, brought all those social realities and so on back.

Hrant (00:59:43):

But on the other hand, people see how bankrupt these messages are.

Hrant (00:59:48):

They were blaming the church in being consumerist or very materialized.

Hrant (00:59:55):

But what people have observed that the church is under attack,

Hrant (00:59:59):

their identity is under attack,

Hrant (01:00:01):

and churches are

Hrant (01:00:03):

has set very high moral ground,

Hrant (01:00:06):

and the Pashinyan's attack on church is based on very low moral ground.

Hrant (01:00:11):

Moreover,

Hrant (01:00:12):

the people in the church among bishops whose support he has gathered are known for

Hrant (01:00:18):

having the lowest respect in the church.

Hrant (01:00:21):

And vice versa,

Hrant (01:00:22):

those who have highest respect in the church are now jailed,

Hrant (01:00:25):

especially Mikayel Ajapahyan,

Hrant (01:00:28):

whom you have mentioned.

Hrant (01:00:29):

So basically what happens, those whom people love, they are jailed.

Hrant (01:00:34):

Those whom people hate, they are with Pashinyan.

Hrant (01:00:37):

So this is obvious that the attack on church is trying to kill all the good in

Hrant (01:00:43):

church and promote all the bad in church.

Hrant (01:00:46):

So that is why we see that the church as an institution and all the good which is

Hrant (01:00:51):

there is trying to improve itself as well and is showing its best compared to the

Hrant (01:00:58):

government.

Hrant (01:01:00):

And the language of communication, on one hand, it's a very low street language of attack.

Hrant (01:01:08):

You know, they made up videos and so on.

Hrant (01:01:12):

And on the other hand, you see continuation of institutional tradition.

Hrant (01:01:17):

And, you know, you can take the second statements and compare those to the

Hrant (01:01:24):

communication that his predecessors had with Ottoman and Persian emperors.

Hrant (01:01:29):

And you see that it's an institution and it's a completely different thing to what

Hrant (01:01:34):

Pashinyan represents.

Hrant (01:01:36):

Now, the government's approval rate, according to this poll, was around 38.6%.

Hrant (01:01:40):

The church's approval rate is 71.4%.

Hrant (01:01:41):

So it's

Hrant (01:01:47):

almost twice less than the church so when a small when a small subject from physics

Hrant (01:01:52):

you know when a small subject attacks the bigger subject you know the energy of

Hrant (01:01:57):

biggest prevails

Hrant (01:01:59):

But at the same time,

Hrant (01:02:01):

if the small is very energetic and the big is very passive,

Hrant (01:02:04):

the big will move,

Hrant (01:02:05):

the small will lose its energy,

Hrant (01:02:07):

but still will succeed somehow.

Hrant (01:02:09):

So it's also dependent on how church will react.

Hrant (01:02:11):

And we see on one hand,

Hrant (01:02:13):

it's passive and on another hand,

Hrant (01:02:16):

the church has to respond and it's responding more and more efficiently.

Hrant (01:02:20):

I think this is a situation in transition.

Hrant (01:02:23):

And I think this attack on the church might be decisive in the result of elections in 2026.

Hrant (01:02:30):

I think this is causing Pashinyan very big trouble right now.

Asbed (01:02:35):

In this case,

Asbed (01:02:36):

of course, the small has administrative resources and the police and the national security

Asbed (01:02:41):

apparatus,

Asbed (01:02:42):

all of which are being used like rabid dogs.

Asbed (01:02:46):

Hrant, in light of the major economic and financial concerns that were expressed in this

Asbed (01:02:50):

poll, I just want to take a quick moment to talk,

Asbed (01:02:53):

ask a couple of questions about the economy.

Asbed (01:02:55):

A month ago,

Asbed (01:02:56):

the Luys Foundation put out a quarterly report,

Asbed (01:02:59):

which emphasized a couple of major areas of concern with the economy,

Asbed (01:03:02):

capital expenditure,

Asbed (01:03:04):

underperformance,

Asbed (01:03:06):

and those were in the areas of infrastructure,

Asbed (01:03:09):

construction,

Asbed (01:03:10):

IT, defense and military,

Asbed (01:03:12):

industrial complex.

Asbed (01:03:13):

And then there was also the other concern was the national debt,

Asbed (01:03:16):

which in nine months from January to September has added something like 10%,

Asbed (01:03:20):

$1.4 billion of additional national debt.

Asbed (01:03:26):

We could go deeper, but we don't have enough time for this.

Asbed (01:03:30):

How is the reported underperformance in the economy affecting the people, or is it?

Hrant (01:03:36):

Frankly speaking, it is not affecting people that much.

Hrant (01:03:41):

Why I'm saying that?

Hrant (01:03:42):

Because, of course, it has a very different effect on different groups of population.

Hrant (01:03:51):

We have talked about agricultural production.

Hrant (01:03:54):

We have talked about pensions, social benefits.

Hrant (01:03:57):

But at the same time, business has been growing lately.

Hrant (01:04:02):

And yes,

Hrant (01:04:03):

we have seen some troubles for the exporters,

Hrant (01:04:06):

including the exporters of services,

Hrant (01:04:09):

including IT,

Hrant (01:04:10):

tourism and some other fields.

Hrant (01:04:12):

But at the same time, generally businesses has grown last several years, primarily to

Hrant (01:04:19):

because of anti-Russian sanctions and Armenia being involved in all those trade,

Hrant (01:04:24):

but also because of,

Hrant (01:04:26):

you know, some global trends and because of some low base effect.

Hrant (01:04:30):

But anyway, but also there were some other policies adopted as well.

Hrant (01:04:39):

So basically, we have seen very significant economic growth lately.

Hrant (01:04:44):

To which extent it is healthy?

Hrant (01:04:46):

That is a good question.

Hrant (01:04:48):

And to some extent,

Hrant (01:04:49):

it is exaggerated and not healthy because high growth of debt is not an adequate

Hrant (01:04:56):

situation when you have high economic growth.

Hrant (01:04:59):

Pashinyan desperately tries to hit the economy

Hrant (01:05:06):

And the overheated economy somehow shows the results,

Hrant (01:05:10):

and you see what you are achieving during Pashinyan,

Hrant (01:05:13):

and that is why he is increasing the debt.

Hrant (01:05:16):

But generally,

Hrant (01:05:18):

it's adopted that debt should be increased during the crisis,

Hrant (01:05:22):

and during the period of economic growth,

Hrant (01:05:24):

you pay back.

Hrant (01:05:26):

While if you acquire new debts during the period of economic growth,

Hrant (01:05:30):

we understand that to some extent and to a big extent,

Hrant (01:05:33):

this economic growth is fake.

Hrant (01:05:35):

And you will have to pay off in the future.

Hrant (01:05:38):

So he's leaving the debt to the future generations, that's obvious.

Hrant (01:05:43):

But who will ask him after all he has done?

Hrant (01:05:46):

So that's a good question.

Hrant (01:05:47):

On another hand,

Hrant (01:05:49):

he has somehow benefited from the geopolitics and the situation around Russia and

Hrant (01:05:56):

around all these conflicts globally has benefited Armenia.

Hrant (01:06:03):

So economic growth has increased.

Hrant (01:06:06):

Again, I want to note that it's not spread equally among the population.

Hrant (01:06:11):

So the high economic growth does not mean that everyone is benefiting.

Hrant (01:06:15):

Regarding the rest issues,

Hrant (01:06:16):

which you have noted,

Hrant (01:06:17):

the military expenses,

Hrant (01:06:22):

the social benefits and the capital expenses,

Hrant (01:06:27):

all those issues we have since 2018,

Hrant (01:06:28):

those are,

Hrant (01:06:30):

you know, watermark of this government.

Hrant (01:06:32):

So nothing has changed since 2018.

Hrant (01:06:35):

Every year is the same.

Hrant (01:06:37):

Military expenses and capital expenses are underperformed and debt is increasing.

Hrant (01:06:42):

But that's the economic reality.

Asbed (01:06:44):

I think you're right about the consumer debt,

Asbed (01:06:46):

because as indicated in the polls,

Asbed (01:06:48):

people are complaining about the

Asbed (01:06:50):

their wages not making ends meet and also poverty levels have not particularly

Asbed (01:06:57):

improved and they're complaining about inflation as well.

Asbed (01:06:59):

So are you concerned about the national debt, though, because it has added another $1.4 billion?

Asbed (01:07:05):

It stands at about $14 billion at this point.

Asbed (01:07:09):

At what point is this going to become a problem for Armenia, the servicing of this debt?

Hrant (01:07:15):

In reality, it already is a problem.

Hrant (01:07:18):

But

Hrant (01:07:20):

But when it will cross the line of maybe two thirds of GDP,

Hrant (01:07:26):

it will start becoming a real problem.

Hrant (01:07:29):

As of now, it is below this line.

Hrant (01:07:31):

I mean, the government debt and especially the external debt.

Hrant (01:07:37):

And now we're in the process of transformation of external debt towards internal debt.

Hrant (01:07:44):

But the percentages are rather high.

Hrant (01:07:46):

So, for example,

Hrant (01:07:47):

if on one hand the share of GDP,

Hrant (01:07:51):

I mean, the share of debt towards GDP is not that high,

Hrant (01:07:54):

but the percentage is very high,

Hrant (01:07:57):

which means that Armenia has to pay back too much.

Hrant (01:08:02):

So I think it is already a problem, but it's not catastrophic here.

Hrant (01:08:06):

But anyway, any responsible statecraft would imply decreasing the spending

Hrant (01:08:15):

and decreasing the state debt,

Hrant (01:08:19):

or at least trying to maintain it at current level because the economy is

Hrant (01:08:24):

overheated with the debt money,

Hrant (01:08:26):

with the foreign currency,

Hrant (01:08:30):

which is coming because of the trade with Russia and so on.

Asbed (01:08:35):

Okay.

Asbed (01:08:36):

Thank you, Hrant, for joining us.

Asbed (01:08:37):

That's all the time we have today.

Asbed (01:08:38):

We look forward to talking with you throughout 2026.

Asbed (01:08:41):

Thank you, friends.

Hrant (01:08:45):

Thank you, Henan Can.

Asbed (01:08:47):

Okay, that was our Week in Review show recorded on January 6th, 2026.

Asbed (01:08:54):

Once again, Merry Christmas to all of our Armenian listeners.

Asbed (01:08:57):

We've been talking with Hrant Mikaelian,

Asbed (01:08:59):

a political scientist and multidisciplinary researcher in social sciences based in

Asbed (01:09:04):

Yerevan.

Asbed (01:09:05):

I'm Asbed Bedrossian and I'm in Los Angeles.

Hovik (01:09:08):

I'm Hovik Manucharyan and I'm in Yerevan.

Asbed (01:09:11):

We'll talk to you soon.

Hovik (01:09:12):

And again, Merry Armenian Christmas.

Hovik (01:09:16):

Christos dznav yev haidnetsav, mez yev dzes mets avetis.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

Hrant Mikaelian

Guest

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