Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Arthur Martirosyan - Ukraine, Iran, Baku Pogroms, Armenian Church Crisis | Ep 505, Jan 11, 2026

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Groong Week in Review - January 11, 2026

Topics

  • Ukraine war’s global cost to Russia
  • Iran unrest and war risk
  • Remembering the Baku pogroms
  • Russia-Armenia tensions and media threats
  • Pashinyan’s clash with Armenian Church


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Episode 505 | Recorded: January 13, 2026

https://podcasts.groong.org/505


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Hello and welcome to the Armenian News Network Groong Week in Review for January 11, 2026.

Asbed (00:00:10):

Today we're talking with Arthur Martirosyan,

Asbed (00:00:12):

an international negotiations and conflict management expert.

Asbed (00:00:16):

Hello, Arthur.

Asbed (00:00:17):

Welcome back to the Groong Podcast.

Arthur (00:00:19):

Good evening.

Arthur (00:00:20):

I'm glad to be with you this evening.

Hovik (00:00:23):

Welcome to Groong, Arthur.

Hovik (00:00:25):

Nice to have you back.

Arthur (00:00:26):

Thank you.

Arthur (00:00:27):

Thank you, Hovik.

Hovik (00:00:29):

All right, so we are recording this on January 13, 2026.

Hovik (00:00:35):

And the Ukraine war is now 1,419 days old.

Hovik (00:00:41):

That is one day longer than the 1,418 days of the Great Patriotic War,

Hovik (00:00:48):

or what is known also as the Soviet front of the World War II.

Hovik (00:00:52):

While Russia has poured in resources into Ukraine, it's room to maneuver elsewhere.

Hovik (00:00:57):

has narrowed, or at least it seems that way.

Hovik (00:00:59):

And rivals and partners alike have tested its reach.

Hovik (00:01:04):

In that period, Russia's position has also taken visible hits or strains.

Hovik (00:01:08):

We can recall Artsakh in 2023, Syria,

Hovik (00:01:13):

Venezuela,

Hovik (00:01:14):

with other pressure points I think not even worth mentioning,

Hovik (00:01:17):

such as South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Hovik (00:01:21):

Arthur, to begin,

Hovik (00:01:22):

how would you characterize Russia's foreign policy,

Hovik (00:01:26):

especially in the context of the Ukraine war over the last four years?

Arthur (00:01:32):

Well, Ukraine is just part of that war because it's clearly a proxy war.

Arthur (00:01:36):

Without the assistance, significant assistance from the West and now from Europeans,

Arthur (00:01:43):

This war probably could end much earlier.

Arthur (00:01:47):

Therefore, it's not just a war with Ukraine.

Arthur (00:01:50):

It's a war for changing the security architecture in the perception of Vladimir

Arthur (00:01:59):

Putin and the Kremlin.

Arthur (00:02:01):

And their perception has been that they cannot allow NATO to expand to include a

Arthur (00:02:08):

country like Ukraine.

Arthur (00:02:09):

So this confrontation is not just with Ukraine, it's really broader with the West.

Arthur (00:02:17):

Well, the U.S.

Arthur (00:02:18):

under Trump administration has changed its strategy somewhat.

Arthur (00:02:23):

But essentially what's at stake here for Russia is what kind of a landscape,

Arthur (00:02:31):

a strategic and geopolitical landscape they're going to have after they are done

Arthur (00:02:37):

with the war or achieve at least part of their goals.

Arthur (00:02:41):

In terms of the outcome of this war,

Arthur (00:02:44):

I think way back at the outset,

Arthur (00:02:48):

I've never had any doubts how it's going to end.

Arthur (00:02:53):

Ukraine doesn't stand a chance winning this war.

Arthur (00:02:56):

It's a different matter on where it stops, what would be the configuration again.

Arthur (00:03:01):

And a bigger issue for me has always been whether Russia is going to win the peace

Arthur (00:03:08):

after that war.

Arthur (00:03:10):

So you were right.

Arthur (00:03:12):

Obviously,

Arthur (00:03:13):

a world like this is a huge strain on the economy,

Arthur (00:03:18):

the economy under sanctions,

Arthur (00:03:21):

the economy that needs lots of technologies that the country doesn't have.

Arthur (00:03:27):

It means that they need to buy it somewhere.

Arthur (00:03:30):

And they have expanded the production of both missiles and especially the

Arthur (00:03:37):

FUVs, drones, this war is unlike any other war, basically new technological war.

Arthur (00:03:46):

And therefore,

Arthur (00:03:47):

comparisons with World War II are somewhat far-fetched when it comes to me,

Arthur (00:03:53):

right? I mean, you should not expect the same kind of...

Arthur (00:03:59):

use of massive offensive at human cost,

Arthur (00:04:05):

although human cost is very high of this war,

Arthur (00:04:08):

but it's in no comparison to what was happening in World War II.

Arthur (00:04:13):

The second important difference,

Arthur (00:04:15):

both for Ukraine and Russia,

Arthur (00:04:18):

is that while they are at war,

Arthur (00:04:22):

some parts of the countries continue to live as if there is no war.

Arthur (00:04:27):

And you do not need to get pictures from the skiing resort Bukovel from Ukraine to

Arthur (00:04:33):

understand that for some Ukrainians,

Arthur (00:04:35):

it doesn't really matter.

Arthur (00:04:38):

Although things have changed since this January and escalation was predictable.

Arthur (00:04:45):

That escalation is necessary for Zelensky to prove that he still can win this one.

Arthur (00:04:52):

I don't know who he's trying to persuade, but those who want to be persuaded are Europeans.

Arthur (00:04:58):

why Europeans want to be persuaded.

Arthur (00:05:01):

When I say Europeans, I mean the leadership of the European Union, various European countries.

Arthur (00:05:08):

Why they need to do that?

Arthur (00:05:09):

Because there is a huge paradigmatic shift in geopolitics,

Arthur (00:05:16):

and it's related again to the Trump administration's decision to

Arthur (00:05:22):

gradually withdraw from active participation in European affairs,

Arthur (00:05:28):

kind of limit and participate only when it comes to solving some transactional

Arthur (00:05:36):

issues related to security.

Arthur (00:05:39):

So that leaves Europeans almost alone in the Yalta-Potsdam world order that gave

Arthur (00:05:46):

them the protection,

Arthur (00:05:47):

the umbrella of the United States.

Arthur (00:05:50):

is likely to disappear again in the perception of Europeans.

Arthur (00:05:53):

And I think the Trump administration has grounds to believe that that's the case.

Arthur (00:05:58):

Whether that's going to be happening or not,

Arthur (00:06:00):

what's going to happen if Trump administration again is replaced by Democrats,

Arthur (00:06:06):

that's for future. But that also gives them some way of hoping that

Arthur (00:06:12):

Maybe even after elections this fall in the U.S.,

Arthur (00:06:17):

Congress changes,

Arthur (00:06:18):

and some of the rhetoric,

Arthur (00:06:22):

at least, of Trump will be subdued.

Arthur (00:06:25):

Also, they hope that a change may happen with the next elections,

Arthur (00:06:29):

but they need to buy some time to revamp the election.

Arthur (00:06:34):

militaries to also start producing military hardware at a scale that is necessary

Arthur (00:06:43):

to prepare for the future war.

Arthur (00:06:45):

So that means that

Arthur (00:06:48):

as long as the war continues in Ukraine,

Arthur (00:06:51):

they have that time,

Arthur (00:06:52):

they have that window to use and to prepare for if they're left with Russia without

Arthur (00:07:01):

the American umbrella,

Arthur (00:07:03):

and if Russia is going to take Ukraine,

Arthur (00:07:07):

it's going to be a disaster in their understanding of what's coming for Europe in

Arthur (00:07:13):

terms of that new security arrangements and architecture.

Arthur (00:07:18):

So, in light of this, we are not likely to see a very quick end to this war.

Arthur (00:07:27):

Some have been saying,

Arthur (00:07:29):

even last year,

Arthur (00:07:31):

very smart people I was talking to were saying that,

Arthur (00:07:34):

oh, Trump is very serious,

Arthur (00:07:35):

is now going to engage very actively,

Arthur (00:07:38):

and he's going to stop this war very soon.

Arthur (00:07:41):

I was saying that Putin is not likely to take that.

Arthur (00:07:45):

Why? Because he's ready to stop the war, but only on his terms.

Arthur (00:07:50):

And the terms have been clearly outlined in that ultimatum,

Arthur (00:07:55):

essentially, that they set in December 22,

Arthur (00:07:58):

right before the war.

Arthur (00:07:59):

So they want to, if they are stopping the war, it has to be on their terms.

Arthur (00:08:04):

What are Europeans doing?

Arthur (00:08:05):

Europeans are giving Zelensky another agreement,

Arthur (00:08:11):

And they think that Russia should accept that agreement,

Arthur (00:08:15):

which is in many ways contrary to what Russians have in their minds.

Arthur (00:08:20):

So very unlikely that Russia is going to stop.

Arthur (00:08:24):

If they're going to continue, what are the implications for the economy?

Arthur (00:08:28):

I'm not an economist,

Arthur (00:08:29):

but I can see how the sanctions that didn't really produce much of effect

Arthur (00:08:36):

initially,

Arthur (00:08:37):

just like with Iran,

Arthur (00:08:40):

they significantly impact the economy.

Arthur (00:08:43):

I cannot say now how exactly the Russian economy has suffered over years.

Arthur (00:08:49):

I'm not an economist.

Arthur (00:08:50):

But that's going to be one of the factors.

Arthur (00:08:52):

Another factor is certainly how fast Russians are going to be moving this year in

Arthur (00:08:59):

terms of territories that they conquer.

Arthur (00:09:03):

And that depends also on Ukraine's ability to mobilize,

Arthur (00:09:08):

which has been one of the most serious weaknesses in their preparedness to this

Arthur (00:09:16):

war,

Arthur (00:09:17):

right? It's not just the hardware.

Arthur (00:09:19):

They need men in the front line,

Arthur (00:09:21):

and yes,

Arthur (00:09:22):

the drones help kind of hold Russians back with their offensives,

Arthur (00:09:30):

but in the drone warfare,

Arthur (00:09:34):

Ukraine does no longer have an upper hand.

Arthur (00:09:38):

So I'm not into prediction of what and how the war is going to end,

Arthur (00:09:45):

but I'm saying that these two factors are going to be very important.

Arthur (00:09:49):

In my understanding,

Arthur (00:09:50):

and that's something that I've been saying from the very outset,

Arthur (00:09:54):

Russia could not quickly take some of the lines that had been prepared very

Arthur (00:10:03):

meticulously in terms of military engineering by Ukraine.

Arthur (00:10:08):

along Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Arthur (00:10:12):

And these are the two strongholds that the fighting is going to center this year, I think.

Arthur (00:10:19):

But after these strongholds fall,

Arthur (00:10:22):

what's going to come next is the plane,

Arthur (00:10:27):

the steppe,

Arthur (00:10:28):

which is less prepared in terms of resistance to Russians,

Arthur (00:10:33):

quite the same way it was done in Donbas.

Arthur (00:10:36):

And once the world moves beyond that point,

Arthur (00:10:40):

the pace is very difficult to predict,

Arthur (00:10:44):

but I think it's going to be much faster,

Arthur (00:10:47):

even to the Dnieper River.

Arthur (00:10:50):

So that's the understanding that I think even the U.S.

Arthur (00:10:54):

military experts and strategists have.

Arthur (00:10:57):

And that's what made Trump say, agree now because later you're going to lose more.

Arthur (00:11:05):

Whether that's going to be the case and how much more Ukraine is going to lose

Arthur (00:11:10):

before they say we're stopping,

Arthur (00:11:12):

it's not clear to me,

Arthur (00:11:13):

because the support of Europeans hasn't dwindled yet.

Arthur (00:11:18):

But that issue also is problematic,

Arthur (00:11:21):

because European leaders have now to continue to persuade their taxpayers that the

Arthur (00:11:27):

money that they are sending to Ukraine is protecting them,

Arthur (00:11:33):

right? It's for their own security.

Arthur (00:11:36):

And I think we can see major development shifts among various Ukrainian supporting

Arthur (00:11:44):

players in Europe next year or this year.

Hovik (00:11:50):

I think that's a good summary,

Hovik (00:11:51):

but I still am concerned in terms of the trade-off that Russia seems to be making

Hovik (00:11:58):

in terms of time versus leverage.

Hovik (00:12:02):

Is there any upside?

Hovik (00:12:06):

that you can see that Russia has achieved over the last four years in terms of

Hovik (00:12:10):

strategic leverage,

Hovik (00:12:12):

even if its potential upside in the future world order sense.

Hovik (00:12:18):

Because from my perspective,

Hovik (00:12:20):

or from the perspective of some,

Hovik (00:12:22):

there are a lot of downsides such as

Hovik (00:12:27):

you know, the,

Hovik (00:12:28):

I guess,

Hovik (00:12:29):

retreats that Russia seems to be making,

Hovik (00:12:33):

especially not being too involved with Iran.

Hovik (00:12:36):

We'll talk about Iran a little bit more later today.

Hovik (00:12:40):

So do you think that time is working in Russia's favor?

Hovik (00:12:44):

And where do you think that Russia has an upper hand in terms of,

Hovik (00:12:48):

you know,

Hovik (00:12:49):

what strategic area do you think Russia has an upper hand?

Hovik (00:12:51):

And what does Russia stand to gain from a victory in this war?

Arthur (00:12:58):

Well, I mean, territory is important.

Arthur (00:13:02):

If they gained territory in Ukraine, that's going to be won.

Arthur (00:13:07):

But as I said, their strategic end goal is not just Ukraine, defeating militarily Ukraine.

Arthur (00:13:13):

It's how they redefine the architecture and how they force Europeans and maybe even

Arthur (00:13:21):

Americans to come to the table to discuss those terms.

Arthur (00:13:25):

of how that architecture is going to look like.

Arthur (00:13:30):

Well, it doesn't matter what we think about Russian strategies and leverage, strategic leverage.

Arthur (00:13:38):

What matters is what the leadership of Russia thinks right now and how they

Arthur (00:13:43):

evaluate the importance of continuing this war.

Arthur (00:13:46):

And at this point, I'm talking about my understanding of how they see the value in this.

Arthur (00:13:52):

In terms of what gains they've had,

Arthur (00:13:54):

I mean, they've gained the Azov Sea, they've gained Mariupol, they've gained land connection

Arthur (00:14:04):

Crimea.

Arthur (00:14:06):

They have gotten a lot.

Arthur (00:14:08):

I mean, you cannot diminish those gains.

Arthur (00:14:11):

But at the same time,

Arthur (00:14:12):

I understand people who are looking at this and saying,

Arthur (00:14:14):

or as Trump was saying,

Arthur (00:14:16):

this war,

Arthur (00:14:17):

they should have ended it very quickly.

Arthur (00:14:22):

Americans could have ended it very quickly.

Asbed (00:14:24):

Well, he says that it should have never started.

Arthur (00:14:28):

Well, I mean, yes, I don't agree with that.

Arthur (00:14:30):

I don't think any military,

Arthur (00:14:32):

including the American military,

Arthur (00:14:34):

could have really gotten a very quick win militarily here.

Arthur (00:14:41):

It's not a cake that you are slicing and taking a piece after a piece.

Arthur (00:14:47):

And what Americans can do,

Arthur (00:14:49):

we saw partially in Afghanistan,

Arthur (00:14:52):

and I mean,

Arthur (00:14:54):

I'm not even going back to...

Arthur (00:14:57):

It all depends on how much the other side is ready to resist,

Arthur (00:15:01):

how much the other side has resources and power to resist.

Arthur (00:15:05):

And the two other components,

Arthur (00:15:07):

that's the power,

Arthur (00:15:09):

resources, and hardware,

Arthur (00:15:11):

has been an intelligence,

Arthur (00:15:13):

most importantly intelligence.

Arthur (00:15:14):

Ukraine couldn't have gotten into this war on its own without all these components.

Arthur (00:15:23):

Now, if they're getting and continue to get those components,

Arthur (00:15:26):

I think Putin is determined to show that he's going to overcome the European and

Arthur (00:15:32):

the Western support of Ukraine,

Arthur (00:15:35):

and that is going to be an important leverage for him in that negotiation,

Arthur (00:15:40):

that negotiation at the table of revamping the

Arthur (00:15:46):

security architecture.

Arthur (00:15:49):

And not surprisingly, I mean, they could have chosen a different target, right?

Arthur (00:15:53):

Why they used the second Oreshnik against this enterprise in Aviv.

Arthur (00:15:59):

It's not just to destroy an enterprise that is producing drones,

Arthur (00:16:04):

presumably,

Arthur (00:16:05):

but it's also showing Europeans that it's going to get very close to their

Arthur (00:16:10):

doorsteps.

Arthur (00:16:11):

Because from Lviv to Poland and even to Germany, it's really a stone's throw.

Asbed (00:16:18):

Well, I'm going to turn our attention to Iran.

Asbed (00:16:21):

And it's a good thing we said Happy New Year already because it hasn't been two

Asbed (00:16:25):

weeks and all signs are pointing towards a direct U.S.

Asbed (00:16:29):

and Israeli confrontation with Iran already.

Asbed (00:16:32):

In recent weeks,

Asbed (00:16:33):

analysts have been warning that Israel will probably prefer a showdown with Iran

Asbed (00:16:37):

sooner than later.

Asbed (00:16:38):

preempting any surprises in the U.S.

Asbed (00:16:40):

midterm elections in November of this year, 2026.

Asbed (00:16:43):

And over the past few days,

Asbed (00:16:45):

Iran has seen major unrest tied to economic stress and political anger.

Asbed (00:16:51):

But a nationwide Internet shutdown has made it very difficult for everyone outside

Asbed (00:16:56):

to estimate the death toll and the basic facts are hard to verify.

Asbed (00:17:01):

In that context,

Asbed (00:17:02):

just today,

Asbed (00:17:03):

I believe, President Trump publicly urged the Iranians on Truth Social.

Asbed (00:17:06):

He wrote, keep protesting in big letters and take over your institutions.

Asbed (00:17:11):

Help is on the way.

Asbed (00:17:13):

And I don't remember if that was him saying it or it was Lindsey Graham saying it.

Asbed (00:17:18):

But yeah, it seems like the drums of war are loud right now.

Asbed (00:17:23):

Anyway, he also announced the policy shift.

Asbed (00:17:26):

He put 25% tariff.

Asbed (00:17:28):

Effective immediately on any country that does business with Iran.

Asbed (00:17:31):

Of course, this would hit Armenia if enforced as stated.

Asbed (00:17:35):

At the same time, pro-Azerbaijani propagandists are signaling readiness.

Asbed (00:17:39):

There is one fellow at the Hudson Institute,

Asbed (00:17:42):

Luke Coffey, who simply posted,

Asbed (00:17:44):

be prepared, Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:17:46):

You decide what you read into that.

Asbed (00:17:48):

In the South Caucasus,

Asbed (00:17:49):

that kind of messaging is really terrible because a regional war,

Asbed (00:17:53):

it can spread like wildfire,

Asbed (00:17:55):

basically.

Asbed (00:17:56):

So what are the likely goals of a renewed war against Iran?

Asbed (00:17:59):

Is it going to be a regime change?

Asbed (00:18:01):

Is it degrading a nuclear program?

Asbed (00:18:03):

Is it rolling back regional networks, all of the above?

Asbed (00:18:07):

Help us out.

Arthur (00:18:10):

Well, I think for the last 30 years,

Arthur (00:18:13):

we've seen Israel going after their enemies one by one,

Arthur (00:18:18):

right?

Arthur (00:18:19):

I mean, starting with Iraq, we continue to... It's almost like a checklist.

Arthur (00:18:24):

Like Libya, right?

Arthur (00:18:25):

I mean, Czech, Syria, Ghana, Lebanon, Hezbollah diminished.

Arthur (00:18:30):

Hamas and Gaza weakened almost immediately.

Arthur (00:18:35):

unable to continue at the same scale operations against Israel.

Arthur (00:18:41):

The last on their list was Iran,

Arthur (00:18:45):

and we're getting close to their wish list,

Arthur (00:18:47):

fulfilling their wish list,

Arthur (00:18:49):

so to say.

Arthur (00:18:50):

They tried it.

Arthur (00:18:51):

I think the assumptions behind the strikes against Iran, the 12-day war, whatever it was,

Arthur (00:19:01):

It's not just to destroy their capability to develop nuclear weapons.

Arthur (00:19:07):

I think there was a hope that the strikes would bring protest into the streets and

Arthur (00:19:14):

there would be implosion.

Arthur (00:19:15):

But the contrary happened.

Arthur (00:19:18):

So the strikes unified people.

Arthur (00:19:23):

But the strategy was not given up entirely.

Arthur (00:19:25):

I mean,

Arthur (00:19:26):

because as I said,

Arthur (00:19:27):

I mean, for Israel,

Arthur (00:19:29):

if they can solve the problem of Iranian threat,

Arthur (00:19:34):

it means that they are significantly,

Arthur (00:19:38):

if not entirely,

Arthur (00:19:39):

changing the positioning of that country in the Middle East.

Arthur (00:19:43):

And I think right after that,

Arthur (00:19:46):

short war, I was asked whether it's over now, they're going to go and find a peace deal.

Arthur (00:19:54):

I said no. I mean, the goals hadn't been accomplished.

Arthur (00:19:58):

Why should they give up on those goals now?

Arthur (00:20:01):

And the next wave, I said then, would be the attempts to engineer social implosion.

Arthur (00:20:11):

But to engineer social implosion from outside, you need some grounds inside, right?

Arthur (00:20:17):

And yes,

Arthur (00:20:19):

some of the elements of that implosion have been in place,

Arthur (00:20:21):

in part the separatist movements in Iran,

Arthur (00:20:25):

including Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:20:27):

But the most critical one has been the economic worsening situation.

Arthur (00:20:33):

I don't know the exact numbers.

Arthur (00:20:35):

I've been hearing different things,

Arthur (00:20:37):

but, you know, the food going up in price 75 percent and even more in some cases.

Arthur (00:20:47):

So the socioeconomic conditions are there.

Arthur (00:20:51):

But there is also fatigue with the regime, especially with the younger generation you have

Arthur (00:20:57):

about 9% unemployment.

Arthur (00:21:00):

They graduate from universities and there is not much of employment or anything.

Arthur (00:21:06):

So the regime has internal cleavages

Arthur (00:21:12):

seems that can be used by outside players.

Arthur (00:21:15):

And that's what is happening now.

Arthur (00:21:17):

And as President Trump was speculating on options,

Arthur (00:21:21):

including the military option,

Arthur (00:21:23):

I think he was saying he was trying diplomacy,

Arthur (00:21:27):

and he was even saying that he was going to negotiate with Iranians.

Arthur (00:21:31):

Iranians are asking to negotiate, he was saying.

Arthur (00:21:34):

But then quickly that changed to

Arthur (00:21:38):

more strict tariffs, economic one.

Arthur (00:21:42):

But he's saying also the military option is not removed from the table.

Arthur (00:21:47):

The only thing that deters that military option, strikes against some

Arthur (00:21:53):

internal affairs or the Revolutionary Guards assets in Iran is that strikes can

Arthur (00:22:01):

again bring back the counter-mobilization in Iran.

Arthur (00:22:06):

So,

Arthur (00:22:07):

whether the Iranian regime is going to be able to hold against this wave of

Arthur (00:22:15):

implosion,

Arthur (00:22:16):

it's hard to say, but we can see how the

Arthur (00:22:19):

Also, diaspora, Iranian diaspora has been mobilized from outside.

Arthur (00:22:23):

Trump mentioned also psychological warfare against Iran.

Arthur (00:22:29):

That also is happening, obviously.

Arthur (00:22:32):

So we'll see what happens.

Arthur (00:22:33):

I mean, but you're right.

Arthur (00:22:37):

if this is going to turn into a full-scale warfare,

Arthur (00:22:40):

which is a scenario that cannot be excluded,

Arthur (00:22:47):

how it can turn into one if the U.S.

Arthur (00:22:49):

strikes and Iranians are good on their promise that they will be striking at

Arthur (00:22:55):

American bases in the region,

Arthur (00:22:57):

destroying them,

Arthur (00:22:58):

and striking at Israel again.

Arthur (00:23:01):

I don't know what their capacity to do that is, but obviously that is

Arthur (00:23:06):

is not going to be a scenario that can be quickly deescalated.

Arthur (00:23:12):

On the contrary.

Asbed (00:23:13):

We've had Iranian protests here in Los Angeles, as a matter of fact.

Asbed (00:23:16):

And there was an incident a couple of days ago when somebody drove into the crowd.

Asbed (00:23:21):

I'm not sure exactly what happened afterwards.

Asbed (00:23:25):

I haven't paid that much attention to it.

Asbed (00:23:26):

But in my experience,

Asbed (00:23:28):

a lot of the diaspora,

Asbed (00:23:30):

the Iranian diaspora for the last 40 years is post 1979 diaspora.

Asbed (00:23:34):

And they're very pro-Shah because a lot of them actually had to leave property wealth behind.

Asbed (00:23:40):

It's a little, to me, it just feels almost like it's a Cuban situation from a different country.

Asbed (00:23:46):

There's a diaspora that had to leave a lot behind because of the government change.

Asbed (00:23:50):

But as far as these riots and the protests are concerned, to you, do they look organic?

Asbed (00:23:57):

Do they look opportunistic?

Asbed (00:23:58):

Do they look externally curated or some mix?

Asbed (00:24:02):

Because I suspect that

Asbed (00:24:04):

their real nature,

Asbed (00:24:05):

the root cause of these things is probably going to determine exactly how the

Asbed (00:24:09):

government responds to them.

Asbed (00:24:11):

If they think that these guys are disgruntled because they're unemployed,

Asbed (00:24:16):

there's going to be a lot of sympathy.

Asbed (00:24:17):

And I think that their government has indicated that.

Asbed (00:24:20):

But if they find that these are basically CIA and Mossad led NGOs that are taking

Asbed (00:24:25):

to the streets,

Asbed (00:24:26):

they're not going to care anything about them.

Asbed (00:24:28):

They're just going to mow them down.

Arthur (00:24:30):

I don't think there are...

Arthur (00:24:32):

NGOs in Iran that are openly led by Mossad and CIA.

Arthur (00:24:37):

Not openly.

Arthur (00:24:38):

To be sure,

Arthur (00:24:39):

Mossad has a significant network in Iran,

Arthur (00:24:45):

and they demonstrated that during that 12-day war because much of the activity,

Arthur (00:24:51):

you know,

Arthur (00:24:53):

targeting missiles, and even targeting and attacking from within Iran was operated by

Arthur (00:25:05):

Mossad networks and operatives on the ground in Iran.

Arthur (00:25:09):

So that can be a factor.

Arthur (00:25:12):

But as I said, no external player can engineer something if there is no ground for that, right?

Arthur (00:25:20):

They wait for the ground.

Arthur (00:25:22):

And even if we look back not into 1979, but 1956, so the coup in 1956,

Arthur (00:25:32):

There were segments frustrated with the democratic regime of Iran at the time,

Arthur (00:25:41):

and they were used in that.

Arthur (00:25:43):

And those segments could be within the military, within the business, various factors.

Arthur (00:25:48):

And also, we should not forget one important factor, that regime change in Iran is almost

Arthur (00:25:59):

approaching 40 years now, right?

Arthur (00:26:02):

And in 40 years,

Arthur (00:26:03):

the guard,

Arthur (00:26:05):

the Revolutionary Guard,

Arthur (00:26:07):

has also undergone change,

Arthur (00:26:10):

change of guards,

Arthur (00:26:12):

and new blood has entered the...

Arthur (00:26:16):

that most important probably from internal security segment.

Arthur (00:26:21):

And there are rivalries, there is infighting within.

Arthur (00:26:26):

Ayatollah himself is, I think, approaching 98, maybe 86 or something.

Asbed (00:26:32):

He's 86 or 87.

Asbed (00:26:33):

Right.

Arthur (00:26:35):

So there are all sorts of various factors that have played into this.

Arthur (00:26:42):

And once...

Arthur (00:26:45):

outside players see the opportunity,

Arthur (00:26:48):

they activate whatever resources and assets they have to support them.

Arthur (00:26:54):

Trump's words,

Arthur (00:26:55):

although rhetoric,

Arthur (00:26:56):

right, but imagine you are in the streets of Iran,

Arthur (00:27:00):

you are a protester,

Arthur (00:27:01):

and someone says,

Arthur (00:27:02):

do you know what Trump said?

Arthur (00:27:03):

Trump said, hold on, go on, burn the buildings.

Arthur (00:27:07):

We are coming.

Arthur (00:27:08):

help is underway.

Arthur (00:27:10):

Reminds me also, we talked about 1956.

Arthur (00:27:13):

In 1956 Budapest,

Arthur (00:27:16):

when the Soviet tanks rolled into the city,

Arthur (00:27:21):

there was also hope among the Hungarians.

Arthur (00:27:26):

at the time that the West is going to come and help us.

Arthur (00:27:29):

But it never happened.

Arthur (00:27:30):

It never materialized.

Arthur (00:27:31):

And it even made things worse in terms of that hope among Hungarians after 1956.

Arthur (00:27:39):

Here, I think when Trump says help is underway,

Arthur (00:27:44):

I'm not sure if striking buildings or bunkers or eliminating some of the leadership

Arthur (00:27:54):

of the Revolutionary Guard is going to help with the situation.

Arthur (00:27:59):

Whether they have other options on the table,

Arthur (00:28:02):

I don't know, but I don't think that Trump is considering boots on the ground.

Arthur (00:28:07):

I think that one is essentially ruled out.

Arthur (00:28:11):

Short of that,

Arthur (00:28:12):

other options may further destabilize the country or bring in protracted

Arthur (00:28:18):

destabilization,

Arthur (00:28:19):

but not the fall of the regime per se.

Asbed (00:28:24):

Okay, so I have a couple of questions, Arthur.

Asbed (00:28:26):

One of them is,

Asbed (00:28:28):

how will Armenia be affected if there's a 25% tariff that hits dealing with Iran?

Asbed (00:28:35):

Because a huge amount,

Asbed (00:28:36):

I think it's 30% of a lot of our trade goes through the Armenian-Iranian border at

Asbed (00:28:42):

Mehri.

Asbed (00:28:43):

And the other thing is,

Asbed (00:28:44):

since you are a negotiations and conflict management expert,

Asbed (00:28:48):

is there an off-ramp to this,

Asbed (00:28:49):

let's call it,

Asbed (00:28:50):

U.S.-Iranian conflict right now?

Arthur (00:28:55):

Well, I'll start from the last question.

Arthur (00:28:57):

I think this conflict in the triangle, Israel, United States, and Iran, is framed in zero sum.

Arthur (00:29:08):

I don't think they can come to some kind of an agreement.

Arthur (00:29:14):

Unless the regime in Iran changes,

Arthur (00:29:18):

nothing else is going to be acceptable for Israel,

Arthur (00:29:22):

because they see it as an existential threat to them,

Arthur (00:29:25):

right?

Arthur (00:29:26):

So similarly, Iranian regime, I think they see the big Satan, small Satan.

Arthur (00:29:33):

We know the rhetoric, right?

Arthur (00:29:34):

For them, the United States and Israel are existential threat, and they are not ready to

Arthur (00:29:42):

now find any solutions at the table, because that problem doesn't have a solution.

Arthur (00:29:48):

Other issues can find solutions.

Arthur (00:29:51):

Even the nuclear deal could have been achieved had it not been also tied somehow to

Arthur (00:29:58):

this,

Arthur (00:30:00):

I'd say,

Arthur (00:30:01):

security issue of Iran,

Arthur (00:30:03):

right?

Arthur (00:30:04):

Once they felt that their security is under serious threat,

Arthur (00:30:09):

they thought that one way to avoid it is going nuclear,

Arthur (00:30:12):

just like North Korea did,

Arthur (00:30:14):

right?

Arthur (00:30:15):

So it in some ways even fastened the thinking that we need nuclear weapons,

Arthur (00:30:21):

and not giving up,

Arthur (00:30:22):

and they are

Arthur (00:30:24):

again, producing new missiles, new delivery systems.

Arthur (00:30:28):

So the issue is not easily going to be resolved, and there is no player who could mediate this.

Arthur (00:30:38):

I mean, I cannot see Russia or European Union or any other player who can offer

Arthur (00:30:48):

good faith mediation to the sides in this conflict.

Asbed (00:30:53):

But could Russia and China do what Europe does for Ukraine,

Asbed (00:30:58):

just basically keep Iran fighting so that essentially whoever's going to go against

Asbed (00:31:03):

Iran, whether it's the United States or Israel,

Asbed (00:31:05):

they just get into a long attrition war with a huge country?

Arthur (00:31:09):

Oh,

Arthur (00:31:10):

that is likely, and that's why I said the boots on the ground is almost ruled out,

Arthur (00:31:16):

not just for the U.S.,

Arthur (00:31:18):

but for Israel, too.

Arthur (00:31:19):

I don't think anyone would dare to risk that kind of engagement in Iran.

Arthur (00:31:26):

As to the 25% for all who trade with Iran, I think it's a statement.

Arthur (00:31:33):

We're going to see when it comes to more fine-grained...

Arthur (00:31:39):

details in implementation, what does that mean for all the countries who trade with Iran?

Arthur (00:31:45):

And the number of the countries who still trade with Iran,

Arthur (00:31:50):

because some of the trade is not sanctioned with Iran.

Arthur (00:31:53):

So the countries who continue to trade with Iran,

Arthur (00:31:57):

how are they going to respond to this rhetoric from

Arthur (00:32:01):

from trade, on trade with Iran from Trump.

Arthur (00:32:06):

If he signs it as a decree, I have heard the statement.

Arthur (00:32:09):

We haven't seen a decree signed yet.

Arthur (00:32:12):

If he signs it and he decrees it, we'll see what is going to be a response from other countries.

Arthur (00:32:17):

But for Armenia, it's going to be painful.

Arthur (00:32:21):

But one of the outcomes, I can see the regime here in Yerevan saying,

Arthur (00:32:30):

trying to turn it as an opportunity for them to continue their praise of their

Arthur (00:32:36):

trade with Azerbaijan now.

Arthur (00:32:38):

And saying, see, we were so smart, we could see that this could come.

Arthur (00:32:43):

We started to get...

Arthur (00:32:46):

oil gasoline from Azerbaijan to offset potential issues within the trade with Iran.

Arthur (00:32:54):

But that is problematic in itself.

Arthur (00:32:58):

They can use it as a PR thing,

Arthur (00:33:00):

But I don't think a trade of Armenia with Azerbaijan can really replace all the

Arthur (00:33:08):

elements in trade with Iran,

Arthur (00:33:11):

because logistically,

Arthur (00:33:12):

even,

Arthur (00:33:13):

it's a very important route for Armenian experts through Iran.

Arthur (00:33:19):

And if that also is going to be taxed or tariff, as Trump is saying, I don't know how...

Arthur (00:33:27):

how that is going to impact the Armenian economy.

Arthur (00:33:31):

It's going to make things much more complicated here in terms of supplies,

Arthur (00:33:36):

in terms of gains from that trade.

Hovik (00:33:40):

Yeah, yeah.

Hovik (00:33:42):

Arthur, I want to bring your attention and that of our listeners and viewers to Baku 36

Hovik (00:33:51):

years ago.

Hovik (00:33:53):

Of course, I'm talking about the large wave of anti-Armenian violence that erupted in Baku

Hovik (00:33:59):

around this time 36 years ago.

Hovik (00:34:02):

Crowds fill the streets chanting slogans like, hail the heroes of Sumgait,

Hovik (00:34:07):

death to Armenians, and long live Baku without Armenians.

Hovik (00:34:12):

Organizers broke the mob into smaller groups and,

Hovik (00:34:16):

according to accounts,

Hovik (00:34:17):

pre-distributed weapons and maps marking Armenian apartments.

Hovik (00:34:22):

And the rest, as we say, is history.

Hovik (00:34:26):

But to this day, the death toll remains unknown.

Hovik (00:34:29):

No full criminal case was pursued and no one was held accountable.

Hovik (00:34:35):

Estimates commonly cited put the dead in the hundreds,

Hovik (00:34:38):

with some victims later dying from severe injuries.

Hovik (00:34:42):

The end result, of course, was also...

Hovik (00:34:45):

the complete depopulation of Baku from Armenians.

Hovik (00:34:50):

For many Armenians,

Hovik (00:34:51):

the lasting wound is not only what happened in 1990,

Hovik (00:34:54):

those awful events,

Hovik (00:34:55):

but what followed,

Hovik (00:34:57):

which is the normalization of hatred of Armenians in public life in Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:35:03):

Those who once had Armenian neighbors and in rare cases helped them are largely gone today.

Hovik (00:35:08):

And a new generation has grown up under a state narrative that treats Armenians as

Hovik (00:35:13):

permanent enemies,

Hovik (00:35:14):

despite the Pashinyan's rhetoric and what Aliyev may sometimes,

Hovik (00:35:18):

you know, blur it out.

Hovik (00:35:20):

So can you share your reflections on this 26th anniversary of the Baku programs of Armenians?

Arthur (00:35:29):

Oh, I think...

Arthur (00:35:31):

It was still the Soviet Union,

Arthur (00:35:34):

and the Soviets,

Arthur (00:35:35):

again, were the leadership in Moscow,

Arthur (00:35:38):

were a couple of days late with General Levitt entering the city and almost taking

Arthur (00:35:46):

the city as a hostile city.

Arthur (00:35:51):

The outcome of that was essentially, before that, there was still a chance

Arthur (00:36:00):

to find a negotiated solution to Karabakh.

Arthur (00:36:05):

But after what happened in Baku and Sumgaid,

Arthur (00:36:08):

and as you correctly stated,

Arthur (00:36:12):

largely unpunished,

Arthur (00:36:13):

there were a couple who were sentenced after Sumgaid,

Arthur (00:36:16):

but not after Baku.

Arthur (00:36:18):

There was obviously a move of Azerbaijanis from Armenia to Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:36:25):

And the conflict got a configuration of zero sum.

Arthur (00:36:31):

We either get our right to live on the land of our ancestors and in Karabakh,

Arthur (00:36:40):

or we have to leave.

Arthur (00:36:42):

That was the outcome of those decisions made in Baku at the time.

Arthur (00:36:50):

Whether that's the National Front or the National Front and the Communist Party of the time,

Arthur (00:36:56):

collusion between them to scare Armenians, right?

Arthur (00:37:00):

I mean, that's one of the

Arthur (00:37:04):

goals of these pogroms was that, right?

Arthur (00:37:08):

So we know what happened next.

Arthur (00:37:10):

I mean, next was a war in Karabakh really took a different scale.

Arthur (00:37:17):

We know how the first war ended and we know what happened now.

Arthur (00:37:20):

I mean,

Arthur (00:37:21):

essentially, unfortunately,

Arthur (00:37:23):

those who were conducting those pogroms in 1990 in Baku are probably still alive.

Arthur (00:37:29):

Quite a few of them were young men at the time.

Arthur (00:37:32):

And they can feel victorious because Karabakh also has been depopulated.

Arthur (00:37:41):

So what started in Baku and what started earlier in Sumgait and crowned in Baku in

Arthur (00:37:48):

pogroms,

Arthur (00:37:49):

I think achieved its goal.

Arthur (00:37:52):

Karabakh has been, Artsakh has been depopulated of Armenians.

Arthur (00:37:56):

So it's a very...

Arthur (00:37:59):

sad development in our history when you look back.

Arthur (00:38:03):

And I certainly cannot subscribe to Pashinyan's point of view now that the entire

Arthur (00:38:12):

Karabakh movement was wrong.

Arthur (00:38:14):

And that's essentially the narrative of Azerbaijanis of the time.

Arthur (00:38:19):

Even in not only 1990,

Arthur (00:38:22):

but in mid-90s,

Arthur (00:38:25):

some of the Azerbaijani propagandists were saying,

Arthur (00:38:29):

oh, Armenians, you lived so well in Baku.

Arthur (00:38:31):

Was it worth it?

Arthur (00:38:32):

You lost everything here now.

Arthur (00:38:35):

And that continues, I mean, as a rhetoric now.

Arthur (00:38:37):

So we can, in Pashinyan's playbook, we can go back to the days before

Arthur (00:38:44):

Baku pogroms and Sumgait, and we can live happily ever after with Azerbaijanis.

Arthur (00:38:52):

I certainly don't see these things happen that way.

Arthur (00:38:56):

And Pashinyan has gone even as far as suggesting that as a bargaining,

Arthur (00:39:03):

What if we give up officially on Artsakh and close that page on the return of

Arthur (00:39:10):

Armenians to Artsakh?

Arthur (00:39:12):

And in exchange, Azerbaijan can stop talking about Western Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:39:18):

But the problem is his false optimism.

Arthur (00:39:24):

I don't know if it's he himself believes in that or he is told to believe that.

Arthur (00:39:30):

That's a big question.

Arthur (00:39:32):

But the problem is that Azerbaijan has no reason to give up on the idea of Western Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:39:40):

Why should they?

Arthur (00:39:42):

It's false even in terms of the bargaining negotiation style, right?

Arthur (00:39:46):

They already have Artsakh.

Arthur (00:39:48):

What are you trading with us?

Arthur (00:39:50):

What are you trying to trade?

Arthur (00:39:52):

You're saying give up on Western Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:39:55):

Why? If we can't get it.

Arthur (00:39:57):

So what started in Sumgait and Baku could have ended very differently for both sides.

Arthur (00:40:07):

And I think one of the biggest problems was that in 94,

Arthur (00:40:12):

instead of formalizing the outcome of that war,

Arthur (00:40:16):

we entered this...

Arthur (00:40:19):

period of no war,

Arthur (00:40:21):

nor peace,

Arthur (00:40:22):

or low-intensity conflict,

Arthur (00:40:25):

which culminated in significant dis-balance in power,

Arthur (00:40:30):

and then mistakes that were made,

Arthur (00:40:34):

and blunders even,

Arthur (00:40:36):

made by Pashinyan in 2018 on,

Arthur (00:40:41):

resulted in what we have now.

Hovik (00:40:43):

Right.

Hovik (00:40:44):

We should not forget that Baku had a rich history of Armenian contributions,

Hovik (00:40:52):

churches,

Hovik (00:40:54):

you know, our contributions to the industry,

Hovik (00:40:56):

the oil industry of Baku and just culture and science.

Hovik (00:41:00):

All of that is gone now.

Hovik (00:41:02):

So, you know, I think it's worthwhile to remember.

Hovik (00:41:05):

Do you know approximately how many, how many Armenians lived in Baku before this event?

Arthur (00:41:11):

It's estimates because the last census in 89 was not really completed in Azerbaijan

Arthur (00:41:21):

and Armenia.

Arthur (00:41:22):

It's in complete census.

Arthur (00:41:24):

So we're talking about no less than under 400,000, maybe, and 450,000 in entire Azerbaijan.

Arthur (00:41:33):

And that includes various other cities, Gantzak,

Arthur (00:41:39):

Shamhor and other places,

Arthur (00:41:41):

apart from Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Republic,

Arthur (00:41:46):

the,

Arthur (00:41:47):

I'm sorry,

Arthur (00:41:48):

Oblast at the time.

Arthur (00:41:49):

So we're talking about no less than 250,000 people who may have lived in Baku.

Arthur (00:41:56):

But that's an estimate.

Arthur (00:41:58):

I cannot say an exact number.

Arthur (00:42:00):

But as with neighboring Georgia,

Arthur (00:42:03):

Tiflis,

Arthur (00:42:04):

where Armenians also had a significant contribution in terms of culture of that

Arthur (00:42:12):

city,

Arthur (00:42:14):

even the architecture and its current day outlook,

Arthur (00:42:20):

the same way Baku.

Arthur (00:42:22):

And I think one of the problems is that we Armenians never...

Arthur (00:42:29):

kind of got the real lessons of this,

Arthur (00:42:33):

that without a nation state,

Arthur (00:42:34):

it doesn't matter where you build it.

Arthur (00:42:38):

If it's in a different empire, you may lose all of it.

Arthur (00:42:41):

You may one day lose all of it.

Arthur (00:42:43):

So back to nation state,

Arthur (00:42:46):

I think we are in a very precarious situation right now,

Arthur (00:42:51):

because what is happening now is not just a threat to

Arthur (00:42:57):

Armenians who cannot go back to their homeland.

Arthur (00:43:01):

It's a threat.

Arthur (00:43:02):

It's a direct threat to Armenia itself.

Arthur (00:43:04):

Although the regime here is trying to put a brave face and talks about

Arthur (00:43:10):

About peace,

Arthur (00:43:11):

eternal peace,

Arthur (00:43:13):

I think what we can see is a window that is not probably a window of opportunity

Arthur (00:43:20):

for Azerbaijan to start solving some of the issues militarily,

Arthur (00:43:26):

as they call Zangezur corridor and whatnot.

Arthur (00:43:28):

It's obviously not.

Arthur (00:43:30):

Military options are not on the table probably now,

Arthur (00:43:33):

but it doesn't rule out that they can be using it,

Arthur (00:43:35):

one.

Arthur (00:43:36):

And number two, using other means, they are getting what they want anyway.

Arthur (00:43:42):

So that's the whole issue right now,

Arthur (00:43:46):

that what started the phase,

Arthur (00:43:49):

because that conflict didn't start in 1988.

Arthur (00:43:54):

the conflict has prehistory going back to the Russian Empire and even maybe

Arthur (00:44:00):

slightly before that,

Arthur (00:44:02):

is getting to a point in time where we need to mobilize all our resources to keep

Arthur (00:44:11):

the nation state or the threat may materialize.

Arthur (00:44:15):

And we can see Western Azerbaijan on the map of the world one day.

Asbed (00:44:19):

Yeah, actually,

Asbed (00:44:20):

our concern is that this Iranian conflict may give an opportunity to Aliyev to

Asbed (00:44:26):

essentially take over some of the sovereign territories from Armenia,

Asbed (00:44:30):

and nobody will be able to do anything about it.

Asbed (00:44:34):

We don't see any US or European countries suddenly rushing in with their forces to

Asbed (00:44:40):

help Armenia, and Armenia is not interested in anything except the police,

Asbed (00:44:44):

not an army.

Arthur (00:44:46):

In international relation terms, you are talking about a new window of opportunity for Iran.

Arthur (00:44:51):

That's right.

Arthur (00:44:52):

It's not there right now.

Arthur (00:44:53):

But if the scenario of escalation in Iran and protracted escalation goes on,

Arthur (00:45:01):

the value of Azerbaijan,

Arthur (00:45:05):

both to Israel and the United States,

Arthur (00:45:06):

is going to grow.

Arthur (00:45:08):

And therefore, he's going to be tempted to perceive it as another opportunity,

Arthur (00:45:14):

window of opportunity.

Arthur (00:45:15):

He didn't miss the previous one,

Arthur (00:45:17):

and he's not likely to miss another one,

Arthur (00:45:19):

because he's preparing for it.

Arthur (00:45:21):

No matter what Pashinyan says here,

Arthur (00:45:23):

Aliyev openly says there is no... I mean,

Arthur (00:45:26):

he's trying to echo Trump when he says there is no international law and there is

Arthur (00:45:32):

no...

Arthur (00:45:33):

In some ways he is right.

Asbed (00:45:35):

That was part of his interview, his traditional interview around January 5 or whatever it was.

Arthur (00:45:41):

If you are sitting in Yerevan and you are saying, oh, it's okay, it's not really about us.

Arthur (00:45:47):

But if international law doesn't exist for your neighbor, what's going to deter him?

Arthur (00:45:54):

into going into another war with you.

Arthur (00:45:57):

A quick war with you.

Asbed (00:45:59):

And as they were chanting things,

Asbed (00:46:01):

you said,

Asbed (00:46:02):

Hovik, when they were doing the Baku pogroms,

Asbed (00:46:05):

one of the things they were saying,

Asbed (00:46:06):

Baku without Armenians,

Asbed (00:46:07):

they got that wish.

Asbed (00:46:08):

And for people who...

Asbed (00:46:10):

are surprised that Armenians put this in a 100-year context that what's going on

Asbed (00:46:16):

with Armenians in Azerbaijan,

Asbed (00:46:17):

whether it's in Nagorno-Karabakh,

Asbed (00:46:20):

Artsakh, or Baku,

Asbed (00:46:21):

Sumgait, or Shahumyan,

Asbed (00:46:22):

is just a continuation of the Armenian genocide,

Asbed (00:46:26):

a new phase of it.

Asbed (00:46:28):

But as I was reading some of the news this morning,

Asbed (00:46:31):

one of them struck me and it was Lindsey Graham saying that,

Asbed (00:46:35):

you know,

Asbed (00:46:36):

stop the killings or we will kill or our president will kill Ali Khamenei.

Asbed (00:46:42):

Nothing that rash happened on Russian TV when Vladimir Solovyov

Asbed (00:46:46):

was going on a tirade.

Asbed (00:46:48):

This is a talk show host on Russian TV.

Asbed (00:46:51):

He suggested Russia should do a special military operation in Armenia because it's

Asbed (00:46:57):

too important to lose.

Asbed (00:46:58):

But I guess what Pashinyan heard was that the Russians wanted to deal with Armenia

Asbed (00:47:04):

Mer Dzevov,

Asbed (00:47:05):

you know, Russian Dzevov.

Asbed (00:47:07):

How do you say that?

Asbed (00:47:09):

That's right.

Asbed (00:47:10):

So in response...

Arthur (00:47:12):

Well, I think Solovyov, we cannot diminish his status.

Arthur (00:47:18):

First of all, one of his late night shows is on state television.

Arthur (00:47:24):

That's true.

Arthur (00:47:26):

Secondly, I think he has gone into more...

Arthur (00:47:31):

kind of rhetoric,

Arthur (00:47:33):

bomb Europeans,

Arthur (00:47:35):

kind of even at some points he was taking start the nuclear World War III and

Arthur (00:47:39):

whatnot.

Arthur (00:47:41):

So in some ways he replaced the late in his rhetoric, but when it comes to Armenia,

Arthur (00:47:49):

i think his relations with uh Yerevan uh soured um strained that's right from this

Arthur (00:47:56):

uh from the start uh and the reason uh the reasons are many um uh his uh i i don't

Arthur (00:48:04):

think they airing his uh program that late night show program on uh

Arthur (00:48:08):

on television here.

Arthur (00:48:10):

I think they stop it.

Arthur (00:48:12):

So in some ways, what he was saying, I mean, I was really puzzled.

Arthur (00:48:18):

I could not understand what's this whole,

Arthur (00:48:21):

you know, storm whirlpool in a glass of water,

Arthur (00:48:24):

you know,

Arthur (00:48:25):

that's, I mean,

Arthur (00:48:26):

everybody is talking about Solovyov all of a sudden.

Arthur (00:48:28):

And I tried to get what exactly he said.

Arthur (00:48:31):

So what exactly he said, he, again, almost like echoed Trump, right?

Arthur (00:48:38):

So he said there is no international law.

Arthur (00:48:40):

The international order is in shambles.

Arthur (00:48:42):

It's all about spheres of influence.

Arthur (00:48:45):

We need to go and protect our spheres of influence.

Arthur (00:48:51):

I mean, he talked about this military operation.

Arthur (00:48:54):

If we are doing it in Ukraine, why cannot we do elsewhere?

Arthur (00:48:57):

Although he didn't mention that we need to do it in Armenia.

Arthur (00:49:01):

He was just saying that about the entire sphere of influence.

Arthur (00:49:08):

and even ruthless with Ukrainians, right?

Arthur (00:49:10):

No more mercy with Ukrainians.

Arthur (00:49:12):

So all of that,

Arthur (00:49:14):

as far as I understand,

Arthur (00:49:16):

I think is kind of maybe a talk in the corridors of power in Moscow these days,

Arthur (00:49:24):

right?

Arthur (00:49:26):

But, you know, one thing is the rhetoric, another thing is your

Arthur (00:49:31):

capabilities, right, what you are capable of doing.

Arthur (00:49:34):

I haven't seen, I mean, I'd be hard pressed to mention any Russian

Arthur (00:49:42):

intervention, real intervention, that they benefited from.

Arthur (00:49:48):

I mean, in the post-Soviet era.

Arthur (00:49:51):

Maybe there was,

Arthur (00:49:52):

I mean,

Arthur (00:49:54):

don't mention Belarus,

Arthur (00:49:55):

because Belarus is even a different state within the post-Soviet configuration,

Arthur (00:50:02):

right?

Arthur (00:50:05):

Union state, whatever.

Arthur (00:50:07):

So all other cases,

Arthur (00:50:10):

they result in less than,

Arthur (00:50:13):

I'd say, beneficial outcomes for the Russian national interest.

Arthur (00:50:18):

Well, are they going to do something like that anywhere, including Armenia?

Arthur (00:50:23):

I doubt that's that instrument that they tried,

Arthur (00:50:28):

because they do not have many other instruments of how to influence the post-Soviet

Arthur (00:50:36):

space,

Arthur (00:50:37):

apart from economic trade,

Arthur (00:50:40):

which is an important instrument.

Arthur (00:50:42):

But even that can backfire, right?

Arthur (00:50:45):

I mean, so Russia, in some ways, part of the problem that they have.

Arthur (00:50:51):

is that they don't have a model of development to offer these countries.

Arthur (00:50:57):

I mean, the model that they themselves have is not a model of development.

Arthur (00:51:01):

It's essentially state capitalism that

Arthur (00:51:07):

makes good use of the resources, vast resources that the country has.

Arthur (00:51:13):

Small countries like Armenia,

Arthur (00:51:16):

even if they try to replicate that,

Arthur (00:51:18):

it's not a model of development.

Arthur (00:51:20):

If you don't have a model of development,

Arthur (00:51:23):

no matter how you try to influence, you don't have the soft power, real soft power.

Arthur (00:51:30):

Culturally,

Arthur (00:51:31):

I think the population here in Armenia,

Arthur (00:51:33):

Georgia,

Arthur (00:51:34):

and I'm sure elsewhere,

Arthur (00:51:35):

is not so much into the Russian,

Arthur (00:51:38):

modern Russian culture.

Arthur (00:51:40):

Forget about the classic, the ballet and maybe

Arthur (00:51:44):

literature and many other things which are kind of still have the influence around

Arthur (00:51:49):

the world to say nothing but the modern Russian culture is not really attractive

Arthur (00:51:56):

and it's not really an instrument for influence anymore so they are in some ways

Arthur (00:52:02):

desperate to find a new way of creating model that will be attractive when they

Arthur (00:52:09):

find it we'll see it but for now they don't

Hovik (00:52:13):

That is a very interesting thought,

Hovik (00:52:15):

because we're going to interview an expert on Russian foreign policy,

Hovik (00:52:22):

and I guess they're thinking about,

Hovik (00:52:26):

or they write about,

Hovik (00:52:28):

how Russia sees itself as a Huntingtonian civilization,

Hovik (00:52:34):

and if Russia

Hovik (00:52:38):

is to be able to remain one of those civilizations,

Hovik (00:52:42):

it needs to offer an attractive option for others,

Hovik (00:52:45):

you know, small states like Armenia as well.

Hovik (00:52:47):

And I agree with you on that.

Hovik (00:52:49):

But, you know, just to close out this incident with Solovyov,

Hovik (00:52:52):

it seems like the only thing that Solovyov was able to do was give ammunition to

Hovik (00:52:57):

those who are claiming about,

Hovik (00:53:01):

you know, about malign influence and hybrid warfare.

Hovik (00:53:05):

Ironically,

Hovik (00:53:06):

This organization called the Committee to Protect Freedom of Expression in Armenia

Hovik (00:53:12):

urged the Armenian government to ban Russian state TV in Armenia.

Hovik (00:53:18):

I just have to comment on this because all this arrogant behavior by Trump

Hovik (00:53:27):

Even with regard to Armenia,

Hovik (00:53:29):

disrespecting Pashinyan,

Hovik (00:53:31):

there are some politicians who want to rename Armenian towns and places in Trump's

Hovik (00:53:37):

name.

Hovik (00:53:38):

Just so that the emperor of the world can come and protect Armenia,

Hovik (00:53:42):

All of that doesn't register on these people's radars,

Hovik (00:53:48):

but someone like Solovyov can really trigger them.

Hovik (00:53:53):

Anyway, as you said, a storm in a teacup.

Hovik (00:53:57):

So let's move on.

Hovik (00:54:00):

Let's talk a little bit about Pashinyan's

Hovik (00:54:04):

attacks against the church.

Hovik (00:54:06):

The only thing I want to mention is that since January 1st,

Hovik (00:54:10):

his tactics or his strategy has changed to a more institutional nature.

Hovik (00:54:15):

He has been communicating a more institutional nature to his

Hovik (00:54:20):

attack on the church starting from that uh council that he formed uh with those 10

Hovik (00:54:25):

renegade bishops um and uh you know effectively we have a situation where the

Hovik (00:54:33):

church even when it is able to dismiss a bishop ahead of the diocese the state will

Hovik (00:54:40):

not um

Hovik (00:54:42):

abide by that decision.

Hovik (00:54:44):

In fact,

Hovik (00:54:45):

the state is now protecting several different churches where these renegade bishops

Hovik (00:54:50):

and dioceses have taken refuge and is protecting them from the church.

Hovik (00:54:57):

And it's saying basically they're not going to recognize any decision from the Catholicos.

Hovik (00:55:03):

Meanwhile, there was a poll recently by MPG which

Hovik (00:55:08):

asked a lot of questions about social harmony in the country and solidarity.

Hovik (00:55:13):

And 90% of the people responding said that it's upon the church,

Hovik (00:55:20):

especially the Archbishop or the Catholicos,

Hovik (00:55:23):

who was number two,

Hovik (00:55:25):

to bring solidarity after all of this.

Hovik (00:55:29):

But do you see any off-ramp

Hovik (00:55:32):

whether negotiated or otherwise,

Hovik (00:55:35):

that in this situation of Pashinyan versus the Armenian Church,

Hovik (00:55:39):

which can restore social harmony,

Hovik (00:55:41):

but not yield blanket impunity to other sides?

Hovik (00:55:44):

Or are we past the point of no return,

Hovik (00:55:46):

where we have to live with a schism in our apostolic church in the foreseeable

Hovik (00:55:50):

future?

Arthur (00:55:52):

The schism can end if the initiator of that schism is no longer in power.

Arthur (00:56:00):

As long as Pashinyan is in power, he's not going to give up on his agenda.

Arthur (00:56:05):

That's obvious.

Arthur (00:56:06):

That agenda is dictated from outside.

Arthur (00:56:09):

It's now pinned to his, as I said, false optimistic sense of peace, right?

Arthur (00:56:18):

Because the Armenian church is a revanchist, one.

Arthur (00:56:21):

Number two, the Armenian church for now is the church of all Armenians, not just Armenia.

Arthur (00:56:29):

And therefore, that's one other target.

Arthur (00:56:32):

of Turkey and Azerbaijan because they want Armenia to be Armenia without the diaspora, right?

Arthur (00:56:40):

Okay. Diasporans can remain Armenians wherever they are, but they should not have any influence here.

Arthur (00:56:45):

So targeting church has different aspects, including the external ones.

Arthur (00:56:52):

He himself

Arthur (00:56:54):

is going to lose face if he gives up suddenly on this agenda.

Arthur (00:56:58):

So value or false values-based conflict is very difficult to manage.

Arthur (00:57:07):

It's one of the most difficult ones.

Arthur (00:57:09):

If it were just about the interests,

Arthur (00:57:12):

yeah, I could say, well,

Arthur (00:57:13):

we can find a mediated solution here.

Arthur (00:57:16):

But it's really about values when you think about it.

Arthur (00:57:19):

And it's about interest of the external players who dictate what to do with the church, right?

Arthur (00:57:24):

To have the church controlled by the state, essentially, in Armenia.

Arthur (00:57:28):

That's what they want.

Arthur (00:57:29):

And a church that will be not saying anything that can irritate...

Arthur (00:57:36):

Aliyev, Erdogan, or whatever.

Arthur (00:57:39):

And if we are saying Artsakh page is closed, the church has no right to speak about Artsakh.

Arthur (00:57:45):

So it should be totally under our control.

Arthur (00:57:48):

That's his agenda, and that's what he's doing.

Arthur (00:57:52):

And he wouldn't have been successful in what he's doing had the church not had

Arthur (00:57:57):

internal problems,

Arthur (00:57:58):

right? That's obvious for us, I mean.

Arthur (00:58:02):

Why I'm saying that his campaign is in some ways phony,

Arthur (00:58:07):

I'm using that word even,

Arthur (00:58:10):

false and phony,

Arthur (00:58:11):

because he himself was criticizing some bishops for corruption.

Arthur (00:58:19):

Everybody is talking about this Bentley.

Arthur (00:58:23):

bishop, who is now almost spearheading this process against the Catholicos.

Arthur (00:58:31):

And that's okay for him, right?

Arthur (00:58:33):

That's okay for him.

Arthur (00:58:34):

And he dictates what the churches should be doing or not doing,

Arthur (00:58:40):

mentioning Catholicos during the services or not.

Arthur (00:58:43):

So it's a pure

Arthur (00:58:46):

I'm kind of,

Arthur (00:58:48):

if he was trying to mask before,

Arthur (00:58:50):

instead of saying,

Arthur (00:58:51):

I'm just a citizen,

Arthur (00:58:52):

I'm a loyal believer in the Armenian church,

Arthur (00:58:55):

now that mask has been thrown,

Arthur (00:58:57):

he's openly intervening in the matters that are totally of the church.

Arthur (00:59:03):

No matter what problems the church has, it's their problems.

Arthur (00:59:07):

They should, they have the means to solve their problems themselves.

Arthur (00:59:11):

The state has no

Arthur (00:59:15):

I'd say, right, and even constitutional right, to intervene the way he's intervening.

Arthur (00:59:20):

He's bringing these 10 people,

Arthur (00:59:23):

10 bishops,

Arthur (00:59:25):

and he's signing some kind of a...

Arthur (00:59:27):

create some kind of a commission.

Arthur (00:59:30):

You create that commission as who?

Arthur (00:59:32):

As the prime minister?

Arthur (00:59:34):

then we should see the government order that a commission has been formed.

Arthur (00:59:39):

There is nothing like that.

Asbed (00:59:40):

But a commission to do what, Arthur?

Arthur (00:59:42):

I mean, the government has no... A commission to start the reforming of the Armenian church.

Asbed (00:59:46):

It's not up to the government to do this.

Asbed (00:59:48):

It's unconstitutional.

Arthur (00:59:49):

That's what I'm saying.

Asbed (00:59:51):

It should be grounds for impeachment of this guy.

Arthur (00:59:53):

He's presiding.

Arthur (00:59:54):

He's the first one to sign.

Arthur (00:59:56):

But in the government records,

Arthur (00:59:58):

if you go now and see what commissions have been created by the Armenian

Arthur (01:00:02):

government, there is nothing about that.

Arthur (01:00:05):

So he's trying to play these games,

Arthur (01:00:07):

or he goes to the church with his,

Arthur (01:00:10):

well,

Arthur (01:00:11):

we should call her significant other because their marriage is not registered,

Arthur (01:00:16):

not even,

Arthur (01:00:17):

forget about church,

Arthur (01:00:18):

it's not registered.

Arthur (01:00:19):

And according to Armenian Church and many other churches,

Arthur (01:00:22):

like Catholic or Russian or Orthodox,

Arthur (01:00:25):

it's a sin,

Arthur (01:00:26):

right? It's a sin.

Arthur (01:00:27):

So you go with her to ask for the...

Arthur (01:00:32):

it's a redemption part, right?

Arthur (01:00:33):

I mean, so, but I'm in the church with the one with whom I'm living in this sin.

Arthur (01:00:39):

And this is, you know, it's not just absurd when you think about it.

Arthur (01:00:45):

It's the apathy of the

Arthur (01:00:50):

population here.

Arthur (01:00:51):

What can I say? I mean, otherwise, I mean, they should have all been up to.

Arthur (01:00:55):

And the fact that there is no,

Arthur (01:00:57):

he violates the constitutional norms and no consequences of that act.

Arthur (01:01:05):

Macron was celebrating on December 9th

Arthur (01:01:09):

an important date,

Arthur (01:01:11):

120 years of the law in France,

Arthur (01:01:15):

which formalized the separation of church and state.

Arthur (01:01:19):

And all other countries, including Armenia, have in part followed that understanding.

Arthur (01:01:24):

But he is violating that.

Arthur (01:01:26):

And no one says he should be stopped.

Arthur (01:01:29):

He should be stopped.

Asbed (01:01:30):

But that's my main complaint.

Asbed (01:01:32):

I mean, where's the opposition with its impeachment, supposedly?

Asbed (01:01:35):

And not that I expect anything, but nobody's even talking about it.

Asbed (01:01:38):

And he is completely unconstitutional in this matter.

Asbed (01:01:42):

But I want to move on because I think we need to wrap up.

Asbed (01:01:44):

We're over an hour here.

Asbed (01:01:45):

So it's time for me to ask to see basically if you have something to share with our listeners.

Asbed (01:01:52):

Hovik, I'll come to you first.

Asbed (01:01:54):

What's on your mind?

Hovik (01:01:56):

I always surprise myself because I think I have a great interest in how

Hovik (01:02:03):

psychological operations work.

Hovik (01:02:05):

And from time to time, I read material on this topic.

Hovik (01:02:08):

But this latest attack against Iran really opened my eyes because...

Hovik (01:02:15):

You know,

Hovik (01:02:16):

even on Twitter X,

Hovik (01:02:17):

for instance, there was this post from Reza Pahlavi that,

Hovik (01:02:22):

you know, while Iran is under a complete internet blockade,

Hovik (01:02:26):

it had received 2 million likes.

Hovik (01:02:28):

And it was saying, like, you know, I'm going to come back and I'm going to take over.

Hovik (01:02:32):

And, you know, a lot of observers just concluded that this was like bot farms.

Hovik (01:02:39):

And I honestly believe that.

Hovik (01:02:41):

And I think that Twitter...

Hovik (01:02:43):

unfortunately has shown to be a platform that is now helping those efforts.

Hovik (01:02:50):

One of the other efforts that Twitter is involved in is the head product manager or

Hovik (01:02:57):

the head of product at Twitter himself made a change to the code of Twitter where

Hovik (01:03:02):

the flag of Iran was replaced with the sun and lion flag from the Shah's time.

Hovik (01:03:09):

I mean, it's completely surreal what's happening.

Hovik (01:03:13):

So I just wanted to tell our listeners and viewers to be wary of whether you're a

Hovik (01:03:19):

target of psychological operations,

Hovik (01:03:21):

whether individually or en masse.

Hovik (01:03:24):

And for me, I decided as a result of this that I'm going to cease my subscription to Twitter.

Hovik (01:03:31):

I discontinued

Hovik (01:03:33):

My subscription,

Hovik (01:03:35):

unfortunately, it still has several months in it or maybe until later this year,

Hovik (01:03:39):

but I will not be renewing it.

Asbed (01:03:44):

I'm 100% with you, Ulrich.

Asbed (01:03:45):

And for anyone who believes that you're seeing some kind of objective truth out

Asbed (01:03:50):

there on social media,

Asbed (01:03:52):

we got news for you.

Asbed (01:03:53):

Everything is curated.

Asbed (01:03:54):

What's on your mind, Arthur?

Arthur (01:03:57):

Well,

Arthur (01:03:59):

Prime Minister Pashinyan,

Arthur (01:04:01):

I was asking the other day,

Arthur (01:04:02):

what is justice,

Arthur (01:04:05):

if the courts should be or the judiciary should be independent from whom?

Arthur (01:04:11):

And my answer to that, and thinking about this issue for a couple of days now,

Arthur (01:04:17):

But I've had the answer immediately.

Arthur (01:04:19):

The answer is independent from you, independent from the executive.

Arthur (01:04:24):

And I'm just,

Arthur (01:04:26):

why I'm saying I'm thinking about this for a couple of days now,

Arthur (01:04:30):

it's puzzling to me that Armenians here are not really sensitive to this kind of

Arthur (01:04:40):

attack,

Arthur (01:04:41):

not against,

Arthur (01:04:42):

forget about the church,

Arthur (01:04:43):

attack against republicanism.

Arthur (01:04:46):

I mean,

Arthur (01:04:48):

I cannot see a leader in any republic,

Arthur (01:04:50):

forget about Europeans,

Arthur (01:04:52):

who could ask a question,

Arthur (01:04:54):

who should the courts be independent from?

Arthur (01:04:58):

And I'm not suspecting that he has ever read Rawls or any other major authors on

Arthur (01:05:07):

justice and liberal ideas about justice and whatnot.

Arthur (01:05:11):

But I was not thinking that we could leave after eight years of promises of kind of

Arthur (01:05:20):

new republic kind of

Arthur (01:05:24):

with all the promises made about democracy and whatnot,

Arthur (01:05:28):

into the eighth year of that regime,

Arthur (01:05:31):

we could hear that the very notion,

Arthur (01:05:35):

because when he's asking that question,

Arthur (01:05:37):

it's almost rhetorical,

Arthur (01:05:38):

but he's asking the question,

Arthur (01:05:40):

why should the courts be independent from me?

Arthur (01:05:44):

I mean, this is not the first case where he has shown his interference with the courts.

Arthur (01:05:50):

We remember how from the very beginning he was targeting them.

Arthur (01:05:54):

And then he was targeting them for corruption.

Arthur (01:05:57):

But now he thinks that courts should not be independent.

Arthur (01:06:03):

That is really mind-boggling for me,

Arthur (01:06:06):

that I'm living in a place now where,

Arthur (01:06:10):

on paper, it's republic.

Arthur (01:06:11):

It has a republic square.

Arthur (01:06:13):

It has a metro station and whatnot, but it's not a republic.

Arthur (01:06:17):

It's not. I understand.

Arthur (01:06:21):

It was a gradual process, but it is now...

Arthur (01:06:24):

an authoritarian regime and a very weak authoritarian regime.

Arthur (01:06:29):

And that is a threat to our security,

Arthur (01:06:31):

a major threat to our security,

Arthur (01:06:33):

because that regime won't be able to stand against any major external threats.

Arthur (01:06:41):

So that's all I have to say right now.

Arthur (01:06:43):

Thank you.

Arthur (01:06:44):

Thank you for your thoughts.

Asbed (01:06:46):

Okay.

Asbed (01:06:47):

Well, that's all the time we have.

Asbed (01:06:48):

Thank you so much for joining us.

Asbed (01:06:49):

We love to hear your insight every time.

Arthur (01:06:52):

Thank you, guys. Good luck.

Arthur (01:06:53):

Talk to you again. Bye-bye.

Asbed (01:06:56):

That was our Week in Review show recorded on January 13, 2026.

Asbed (01:07:00):

We've been talking with Arthur G. Martirosyan, who is a senior consultant with CM Partners.

Asbed (01:07:07):

And in 1994,

Asbed (01:07:08):

after graduating from Yale University,

Asbed (01:07:11):

he joined Conflict Management Group and Harvard Negotiations Project and has since

Asbed (01:07:15):

worked on conflicts in the former Soviet Union,

Asbed (01:07:18):

the Middle East, the Balkans,

Asbed (01:07:19):

Africa,

Asbed (01:07:20):

and Latin America.

Asbed (01:07:22):

For more information, as always, podcasts.Groong.org/episode-number.

Asbed (01:07:27):

Those are the show notes.

Asbed (01:07:28):

And you can find all the bios and other links.

Asbed (01:07:32):

We usually put the links to all the articles that we reference in the show as well.

Hovik (01:07:37):

Don't forget to like, comment, share, subscribe.

Hovik (01:07:40):

And thank you for all of your donations so far.

Hovik (01:07:43):

You know, looking forward to doing more in 2026.

Hovik (01:07:48):

In fact, this next two weeks,

Hovik (01:07:50):

I don't know what happened to us,

Hovik (01:07:52):

but we have so many recordings one after another.

Asbed (01:07:55):

Yeah, that's right.

Asbed (01:07:57):

We're almost having to say like, can't do it right now.

Asbed (01:08:00):

Let's talk in a couple of weeks because it's one recording a day.

Asbed (01:08:03):

So you and I have become like a pipeline.

Hovik (01:08:05):

I have to say it's more than a...

Hovik (01:08:06):

It's more than a full-time job.

Hovik (01:08:08):

So if you appreciate what we're doing here,

Hovik (01:08:12):

please help us by contributing so that we can just increase our reach.

Hovik (01:08:16):

We're not doing this.

Hovik (01:08:17):

We're not taking a penny out of this, obviously.

Hovik (01:08:20):

But podcasts.Groong.org.

Asbed (01:08:23):

It is fun talking to people, though.

Asbed (01:08:25):

It's fun talking to people around the world,

Asbed (01:08:27):

in every country,

Asbed (01:08:29):

and just getting their opinions and stuff.

Asbed (01:08:31):

Yeah.

Hovik (01:08:32):

It's a labor of love.

Hovik (01:08:34):

Our only wish is that our viewership of episodes was 10 times more than it is,

Hovik (01:08:40):

I think, that both yours and mine.

Hovik (01:08:42):

So anyway, hopefully we'll get there.

Hovik (01:08:45):

But even if not,

Hovik (01:08:46):

we know that we're reaching some of the key people that we intend to reach,

Hovik (01:08:53):

including some who we don't consider our friends.

Hovik (01:08:58):

But I think that's important as well.

Asbed (01:09:02):

Okay, well, I'm Asbed Bedrossian and I'm still in Los Angeles.

Hovik (01:09:07):

And I'm Hovik Manucharyan in Occupied Yerevan.

Hovik (01:09:10):

Talk to you guys soon, next week.

Hovik (01:09:13):

Take care.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

Arthur G Martirosyan

Guest

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