Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Pietro Shakarian - Iran, Russia, and the Geopolitics of Post-Soviet Eurasia | Ep 506, Jan 16, 2026

• Armenian News Network / Groong • Episode 506

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Conversations on Groong - January 16, 2026

Topics

  • Unrest in Iran
  • Russia-Iran Partnership
  • Solovyov’s Statements
  • Trump’s “TRIPP Wire” in the Caucasus
  • Release of Armenian hostages

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Hosts

Episode 506 | Recorded: January 14, 2026

SHOW NOTES: https://podcasts.groong.org/506

VIDEO: https://youtu.be/P5u4ppL9qK8

#IranIsraelWar #IsraelIranConflict #Iran #Israel #IsraelConflict #Armenia #USForeignPolicy #Geopolitics #MiddleEastCrisis



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Asbed (00:00:04):

Hello, everyone, and welcome to this Conversations on Groong episode.

Asbed (00:00:08):

Today, we continue to discuss ongoing geopolitical developments surrounding Iran and the

Asbed (00:00:13):

impact it has on Armenia and the Caucasus.

Asbed (00:00:16):

And for this, we are going to have with us

Asbed (00:00:18):

Dr. Pietro Shakarian,

Asbed (00:00:19):

who is a historian of Russia and the Soviet Union and a lecturer in history at the

Asbed (00:00:24):

American University of Armenia in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:00:27):

Pietro, happy 2026, and welcome back to the Groong podcast.

Pietro (00:00:32):

I was bed whole week.

Pietro (00:00:33):

It's wonderful to be here.

Pietro (00:00:34):

Happy 2026.

Pietro (00:00:37):

And, you know, Merry Armenian Christmas to you.

Pietro (00:00:39):

And I don't know what else to say.

Pietro (00:00:42):

Thank you very much.

Hovik (00:00:47):

I think for the period of eight days after January 6th, we are supposed to say that.

Hovik (00:00:57):

Pietro,

Hovik (00:00:58):

recently you authored an article in James Carden's Realist Review Substack analyzing

Hovik (00:01:05):

the Russian-Iranian relations one year after the comprehensive strategic

Hovik (00:01:11):

partnership that was signed almost about a year ago,

Hovik (00:01:14):

in January 17th.

Pietro (00:01:16):

Well, actually, just to clarify,

Pietro (00:01:17):

actually, too, I mean,

Pietro (00:01:18):

this was kind of like an article that was discussing developments since that

Pietro (00:01:23):

comprehensive strategic treaty had been signed.

Pietro (00:01:26):

So it was like building on it.

Hovik (00:01:27):

Well,

Hovik (00:01:28):

it's interesting because shortly after your article was published,

Hovik (00:01:32):

unrest started in Iran.

Hovik (00:01:33):

There is a lot of debate whether that was organic unrest or externally triggered.

Hovik (00:01:41):

But what we know so far is that hundreds of people are reported to have died.

Hovik (00:01:49):

and we don't know more details because the internet in Iran has been shut off

Hovik (00:01:54):

because I guess there's a suspicion of external influence through the internet.

Hovik (00:02:05):

Anyway, the hero

Hovik (00:02:09):

from the West who support the protests in Iran is Reza Pahlavi,

Hovik (00:02:15):

the Shah's son,

Hovik (00:02:17):

who was just a young kid when he left Iran.

Hovik (00:02:22):

But there is now a strong vocal support among the neocon community and Mossad to

Hovik (00:02:30):

bring him back to rule Iran.

Hovik (00:02:33):

Even they're openly boasting about it and about the unrest and about their role in the unrest.

Hovik (00:02:40):

Anyway, Trump has not been neutral in this issue as well.

Hovik (00:02:46):

He publicly goaded the protesters to keep protesting.

Hovik (00:02:51):

Take over your institutions.

Hovik (00:02:53):

Imagine a leader of one country saying that to protesters in another country,

Hovik (00:02:57):

especially someone who doesn't

Hovik (00:03:02):

claim to support foreign intervention.

Asbed (00:03:04):

Just imagine if Ali Khamenei was taking on to Twitter and telling Trump to stop

Asbed (00:03:11):

killing his people on the streets of Minnesota,

Asbed (00:03:14):

for example.

Asbed (00:03:15):

It's surreal.

Asbed (00:03:16):

Referring to the ICE raids and just basically saying that if you don't stop killing

Asbed (00:03:21):

your people in the streets,

Asbed (00:03:23):

then we are going to bomb Washington.

Pietro (00:03:25):

Yeah, locked and loaded, man.

Hovik (00:03:30):

He promised that help is on the way, locked and loaded.

Hovik (00:03:34):

To top it all off, he announced a 25% tariff on any country that does business with Iran.

Pietro (00:03:43):

Which would include Armenia, of course.

Hovik (00:03:45):

Yeah, I mean...

Hovik (00:03:48):

And Iran is a significant,

Hovik (00:03:51):

I think 25 or 30 percent of Armenia's external traffic in terms of products,

Hovik (00:03:58):

exports goes through Iran.

Hovik (00:04:00):

Meanwhile,

Hovik (00:04:01):

Trump allies like Senator Lindsey Graham have publicly orgasmed,

Hovik (00:04:06):

I'm sorry, have publicly warned Iran's government to stop killing

Hovik (00:04:11):

Stop killing the people or Trump will kill Ayatollah Khamenei.

Hovik (00:04:15):

That's what he said.

Hovik (00:04:17):

So things are not looking good, to say the least.

Hovik (00:04:19):

And I'm jesting because that's the only thing I can do at this point,

Hovik (00:04:23):

but obviously we're very worried.

Hovik (00:04:25):

And if the U.S. is entering the picture and wanting to kill Iran's supreme leader,

Hovik (00:04:30):

chances are good that Iran will turn to Russia and China for assistance,

Hovik (00:04:33):

we hope.

Hovik (00:04:34):

So to begin with, Pietro, what is your stance on what's going on?

Hovik (00:04:40):

Is this organic, opportunistic, externally curated, or all of the above, the protests, I mean?

Pietro (00:04:46):

Well, I think,

Pietro (00:04:47):

well, first of all, Hovik,

Pietro (00:04:48):

I want to congratulate you on such a brilliant impression of Lindsey Graham.

Pietro (00:04:53):

That was just stupendous.

Pietro (00:04:54):

So I just want to put that out there right away.

Pietro (00:04:58):

But in terms of the Iranian protests,

Pietro (00:05:00):

in terms of what we're seeing,

Pietro (00:05:02):

that really these protests began endogenously,

Pietro (00:05:06):

right, in response to the severe economic situation that Iran was facing.

Pietro (00:05:10):

Now, we also should highlight the fact that

Pietro (00:05:14):

Why were they facing such a severe situation?

Pietro (00:05:16):

Well, they were already, as we know, under severe sanction for many, many decades.

Pietro (00:05:21):

So this is not necessarily a new thing.

Pietro (00:05:23):

But it seems as if the United States,

Pietro (00:05:27):

under Trump,

Pietro (00:05:28):

basically kind of tried to kind of manufacture a crisis by manipulating the

Pietro (00:05:32):

currency to kind of go down to kind of encourage this unrest.

Pietro (00:05:35):

So there were people who, like, especially when we talk about the initial protests,

Pietro (00:05:40):

there are people who are concerned, you know, legitimately so, about losing their livelihoods.

Pietro (00:05:45):

People from the bazaars,

Pietro (00:05:47):

you know, the bazardies,

Pietro (00:05:48):

they were up in arms about,

Pietro (00:05:51):

you know, the economic situation.

Pietro (00:05:53):

But then what happened is you began to have infiltration of these very legitimate

Pietro (00:05:59):

protests by radical,

Pietro (00:06:04):

extreme,

Pietro (00:06:05):

I guess you could say,

Pietro (00:06:06):

rioters.

Pietro (00:06:07):

You can't even really say they were protesters.

Pietro (00:06:08):

They were rioters who were kind of conducting violence.

Pietro (00:06:11):

I mean, these were people who were, you know, that they killed people.

Pietro (00:06:15):

over a hundred police officers.

Pietro (00:06:18):

They were shooting people.

Pietro (00:06:19):

They burned people in a mosque.

Pietro (00:06:21):

They attacked people in hospitals.

Pietro (00:06:25):

Just really terrible things.

Pietro (00:06:27):

So when the mainstream media

Pietro (00:06:31):

says that these are peaceful protesters, the rioters, that is.

Pietro (00:06:34):

And that's who they mean.

Pietro (00:06:36):

They're not really talking about the initial protesters.

Pietro (00:06:38):

They're talking more about the rioters.

Pietro (00:06:40):

That's completely false.

Pietro (00:06:43):

And also, moreover,

Pietro (00:06:44):

as you alluded to in your introduction,

Pietro (00:06:47):

Mossad overtly played a role in this.

Pietro (00:06:50):

So on Twitter, and this is not just like me, you know, just saying this off the cuff.

Pietro (00:06:54):

This is actually what they admitted.

Pietro (00:06:56):

So on Twitter, on a on a Persian language Twitter account or X as well to be known.

Pietro (00:07:01):

By the way, Elon Musk has not made Elon Musk has made no secret of his support for for what

Pietro (00:07:09):

we're seeing now in Iran.

Pietro (00:07:11):

OK, so X has been completely marshaled to kind of,

Pietro (00:07:14):

you know, help facilitate these these demonstrations,

Pietro (00:07:16):

you know,

Pietro (00:07:17):

for freedom and democracy as as it's been billed to us.

Pietro (00:07:22):

But anyway,

Pietro (00:07:24):

you have these extraordinarily violent protests,

Pietro (00:07:27):

and the Iranian government shut down the Internet.

Pietro (00:07:30):

There was a very brutal crackdown.

Pietro (00:07:33):

And then after that,

Pietro (00:07:34):

what happened is once the Iranian government got the situation under control,

Pietro (00:07:41):

you actually had large rallies across the country.

Pietro (00:07:44):

that were actually in support of the Islamic Republic, actually, as a matter of fact.

Pietro (00:07:48):

So that's also quite interesting.

Pietro (00:07:49):

It shows that because many people didn't like this,

Pietro (00:07:52):

many people,

Pietro (00:07:53):

even people who might have legitimately approved of the protests to begin with,

Pietro (00:07:57):

they didn't like the fact that they were seeing people getting attacked or burned

Pietro (00:08:01):

or shot or anything like this.

Pietro (00:08:03):

There was even,

Pietro (00:08:06):

as far as I know, based on my information,

Pietro (00:08:07):

one Armenian actually who died in these protests,

Pietro (00:08:12):

in these riots, really,

Pietro (00:08:13):

we're talking about.

Pietro (00:08:14):

Also,

Pietro (00:08:15):

there has been much exaggeration about the scope of the oppositional protests in

Pietro (00:08:20):

the West.

Pietro (00:08:21):

So a lot of people say these are the largest protests since 1979.

Pietro (00:08:24):

Well, that's very questionable.

Pietro (00:08:26):

First of all, these riots largely took place at night, not during the day.

Pietro (00:08:31):

So it was hard to gauge what the scope of them,

Pietro (00:08:35):

how large they were,

Pietro (00:08:36):

the size of them,

Pietro (00:08:37):

the scope and the size of them.

Pietro (00:08:38):

It was hard to gauge that.

Pietro (00:08:39):

Versus, let's say, in 2009, when we look at the Green Movement led by Mr. Mousavi,

Pietro (00:08:45):

Musabi, I mean really in Iran,

Pietro (00:08:47):

where basically he,

Pietro (00:08:51):

where you could see that this was a movement that had a substantial following in

Pietro (00:08:55):

the country. To say nothing of what happened in 1979 with the Islamic Revolution.

Pietro (00:09:00):

And so what we're seeing now really is a situation where it was obvious that there

Pietro (00:09:07):

was some sort of effort to kind of foment,

Pietro (00:09:09):

I guess you could say,

Pietro (00:09:10):

a kind of a Maidan in Iran.

Pietro (00:09:13):

Really, that's what we're looking at,

Pietro (00:09:14):

not just a color revolution,

Pietro (00:09:15):

but a Maidan,

Pietro (00:09:16):

where violence would be used to kind of,

Pietro (00:09:18):

you know,

Pietro (00:09:19):

facilitate and overthrow of the government.

Pietro (00:09:22):

And also,

Pietro (00:09:23):

as we know, external actors were involved,

Pietro (00:09:25):

certainly Mossad,

Pietro (00:09:26):

but also the United States.

Pietro (00:09:27):

So the Iranian intelligence said that they found weapons that were from the United

Pietro (00:09:32):

States in the residences of some of these rioters.

Pietro (00:09:35):

They found audio recording that Araghchi made a statement where he said that

Pietro (00:09:40):

they found audio recording that went back to Washington that basically was saying

Pietro (00:09:45):

that,

Pietro (00:09:46):

you know,

Pietro (00:09:47):

that was instructing the rioters to kind of,

Pietro (00:09:49):

you know,

Pietro (00:09:50):

attack people and shoot people in order to give Trump a pretext to get involved,

Pietro (00:09:57):

right? Which would connect directly to his tweet that he would get locked and loaded and

Pietro (00:10:02):

get involved if Iran were to shoot or attack any of these protesters.

Pietro (00:10:07):

So yeah, that's what we're at right now with this.

Hovik (00:10:09):

I mean,

Hovik (00:10:10):

the instructions seem almost like redundant because,

Hovik (00:10:13):

I mean, where did all these people get these guns?

Hovik (00:10:16):

Where did they get their training?

Hovik (00:10:18):

So it definitely seems to be externally instigated.

Hovik (00:10:23):

And Iran is a big country.

Hovik (00:10:26):

It has a very long border.

Hovik (00:10:29):

So I understand that. But

Hovik (00:10:31):

I guess it's very easy,

Hovik (00:10:34):

you know, especially if you're trying to foment a revolution,

Hovik (00:10:36):

to implant these elements into your society and then use them at an opportune time.

Hovik (00:10:43):

But I wanted to ask you, what is your thought about the role of social media in all of this?

Hovik (00:10:50):

Because, you know, I'm from a Western country and I grew up...

Hovik (00:10:56):

I grew up when the internet just started,

Hovik (00:10:59):

and I can't imagine not having internet,

Hovik (00:11:02):

but it seems like in Iran,

Hovik (00:11:07):

internet has been very well co-opted to foment these revolutions,

Hovik (00:11:12):

despite the positive aspects of it as well.

Hovik (00:11:17):

You know, when Elon Musk initially took over Twitter, a lot of people had goodwill towards him.

Hovik (00:11:24):

They thought he was doing this for the benefit of freedom of expression and freedom of speech.

Hovik (00:11:30):

But now, you know,

Hovik (00:11:31):

you read more and then you see like Starlink coming online and the US military

Hovik (00:11:37):

inking,

Hovik (00:11:38):

you know, a very large article.

Hovik (00:11:40):

you know, contracts with Starlink to use that for military purposes.

Hovik (00:11:44):

And now we're seeing,

Hovik (00:11:46):

you know,

Hovik (00:11:47):

Twitter or X,

Hovik (00:11:48):

which are also overtly being used for this revolution,

Hovik (00:11:56):

or,

Hovik (00:11:57):

you know, I don't know what to call it,

Hovik (00:11:58):

like an externally funded regime change operation,

Hovik (00:12:02):

where Twitter,

Hovik (00:12:03):

I mean,

Hovik (00:12:04):

unilaterally decided to change the flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Hovik (00:12:10):

to the flag of the previous Shah, which is the sun and the lion flag.

Hovik (00:12:15):

And I think that's still like, that was a permanent change, it appears to me.

Hovik (00:12:20):

So what do you think about the use and co-opt

Hovik (00:12:24):

co-option of the internet in these circumstances.

Hovik (00:12:29):

I mean, in general,

Hovik (00:12:30):

I think also like,

Hovik (00:12:31):

you know,

Hovik (00:12:32):

what if they decided to do this in Russia or China?

Hovik (00:12:35):

I think China is a little more protected, but I don't know about Russia.

Pietro (00:12:40):

What are your thoughts?

Pietro (00:12:42):

What I think is quite incredible about this is the degree to which this revolution

Pietro (00:12:48):

or really these riots,

Pietro (00:12:50):

because it didn't grow.

Pietro (00:12:52):

We also have to understand something else,

Pietro (00:12:53):

that it did not,

Pietro (00:12:54):

despite all the rhetoric we're hearing,

Pietro (00:12:56):

and even despite the efforts to make

Pietro (00:12:58):

you know, Reza Pahlavi,

Pietro (00:12:59):

you know,

Pietro (00:13:00):

this great hero,

Pietro (00:13:01):

which is really a joke because there are very few people in Iran,

Pietro (00:13:05):

even within, also within even the Iranian diaspora,

Pietro (00:13:07):

there's,

Pietro (00:13:08):

he doesn't have that big of a following in general.

Pietro (00:13:13):

So it's,

Pietro (00:13:14):

but what's really quite interesting to me is to see the ways in which this kind of

Pietro (00:13:19):

effort to represent this as a kind of a,

Pietro (00:13:23):

you know, a kind of a major revolution in Iran

Pietro (00:13:26):

A popular movement.

Pietro (00:13:28):

A popular movement,

Pietro (00:13:29):

the largest revolution we've seen since 1979,

Pietro (00:13:31):

the largest mass movement we've seen since 1979.

Pietro (00:13:34):

And again,

Pietro (00:13:35):

not to say anything about,

Pietro (00:13:36):

let's say,

Pietro (00:13:37):

the Women's Life Freedom Movement or Mousavi in the Green Revolution in 2009.

Pietro (00:13:44):

No, the idea would be that this is the largest demonstration we've seen since 1979 even.

Pietro (00:13:50):

So there's been a very tenacious,

Pietro (00:13:52):

I would use that term,

Pietro (00:13:53):

tenacious and concerted effort really to sell this idea to the Western public in

Pietro (00:13:59):

particular,

Pietro (00:14:00):

that Iran is on the verge of a collapse,

Pietro (00:14:02):

that the state is on,

Pietro (00:14:04):

that the Islamic Republic is weak,

Pietro (00:14:06):

that the government is going to fall,

Pietro (00:14:07):

and that there is going to be a revolution.

Pietro (00:14:09):

And now, first of all, number one, it's misleading to think that.

Pietro (00:14:13):

But there seems to be,

Pietro (00:14:15):

again, this idea that is supported by Trump,

Pietro (00:14:19):

by Elon Musk,

Pietro (00:14:20):

by certainly the neocons,

Pietro (00:14:23):

and certainly also,

Pietro (00:14:24):

as we know, Israel,

Pietro (00:14:26):

to kind of create this image of an Iran that is vulnerable,

Pietro (00:14:30):

that's on the verge of collapse and whatnot.

Pietro (00:14:32):

And the thing that's so incredible to me is even after Iraq,

Pietro (00:14:36):

even after Libya,

Pietro (00:14:37):

even after Syria,

Pietro (00:14:38):

even after all these regime change wars,

Pietro (00:14:41):

which people watched in real time online,

Pietro (00:14:43):

they saw all this unfold.

Pietro (00:14:45):

And then, you know, the truth of these wars every time came out, that even after all this,

Pietro (00:14:51):

there still is this effort to try and sell,

Pietro (00:14:54):

you know, to use the Internet and to use social media to sell this idea that this is a

Pietro (00:14:58):

popular movement,

Pietro (00:14:59):

this is a mass movement,

Pietro (00:15:00):

it's for freedom and democracy and all this and that to Western audiences.

Pietro (00:15:04):

It's incredible to me that this kind of just continues.

Pietro (00:15:08):

And there's no letting up on it, you know, and it's very tenacious.

Pietro (00:15:12):

They really, really want this to happen.

Pietro (00:15:14):

They really, really want to break Iran as a state.

Pietro (00:15:17):

They really want to, like I say,

Pietro (00:15:18):

it's the idea is not necessarily regime change,

Pietro (00:15:20):

but regime removal to make Iran into like another Syria where it's kind of

Pietro (00:15:24):

semi-Balkanized and so weak that it can't pull itself together and that it would

Pietro (00:15:29):

enable Israel to be kind of the

Pietro (00:15:32):

preeminent military force in the region,

Pietro (00:15:34):

but as I'm also going to describe,

Pietro (00:15:36):

this also has implications for BRICS,

Pietro (00:15:41):

because Iran,

Pietro (00:15:42):

as I also mentioned,

Pietro (00:15:43):

has an important node between Russia and China,

Pietro (00:15:46):

and if it's severely weakened or if it becomes another Syria,

Pietro (00:15:49):

that's a huge blow to BRICS and the rise of multipolarity in the world.

Hovik (00:15:53):

Yeah, I mean, we will go into all of that.

Hovik (00:15:56):

But I think just to put a bookend on this topic,

Hovik (00:15:59):

I think that more and more,

Hovik (00:16:01):

despite growing up in the days of when internet was completely free without any

Hovik (00:16:07):

firewalls or blocked access,

Hovik (00:16:10):

You know, I have less and less belief that that type of an internet can be a reality nowadays.

Hovik (00:16:17):

And here I have to give credit to Brian Berletic of the new Atlas one more time,

Hovik (00:16:23):

because he's been a consistent proponent of countries that are especially countries

Hovik (00:16:29):

like Russia and China who are being attacked.

Hovik (00:16:32):

in the information domain to take control of their information space.

Hovik (00:16:38):

And I think that has to be a lesson learned for all countries involved.

Hovik (00:16:42):

I just don't think that if there is an actor that is willing to use

Hovik (00:16:50):

the Internet, which is the US advantage.

Hovik (00:16:53):

They are providing the Internet,

Hovik (00:16:54):

but they're trying to suborn that and they're trying to use that for taking down

Hovik (00:17:01):

other countries.

Hovik (00:17:02):

And I think that there is a big tradeoff to be made between liberty and sovereignty.

Pietro (00:17:07):

I just want to also I just want to add just one thing on that.

Pietro (00:17:10):

Actually, it's very good that you brought that up because I also actually move the mind that,

Pietro (00:17:14):

you know, when we talk about Armenia,

Pietro (00:17:15):

look how vulnerable Armenia is.

Pietro (00:17:17):

Most of the Armenian social media activity is concentrated on Facebook.

Pietro (00:17:21):

You know, so,

Pietro (00:17:22):

I mean, if Armenia wants to become like,

Pietro (00:17:25):

I guess you could say independent in terms of its Internet,

Pietro (00:17:28):

in terms of its social media,

Pietro (00:17:29):

it might think in the future about,

Pietro (00:17:31):

you know,

Pietro (00:17:32):

creating its own kind of like social media app or social media network or something

Pietro (00:17:36):

like this,

Pietro (00:17:37):

kind of like the equivalent of like,

Pietro (00:17:39):

you know, VK or Facebook.

Pietro (00:17:40):

But Armenian,

Pietro (00:17:41):

you know,

Pietro (00:17:42):

I mean, there might be something like that in the future because it's really quite

Pietro (00:17:45):

dangerous for any any country.

Pietro (00:17:48):

to be that dependent on a certain social media platform that is externally supported.

Hovik (00:17:55):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:17:56):

Okay, so moving on.

Hovik (00:17:58):

Ever since Israel's 12-day war on Iran in June,

Hovik (00:18:02):

analysts have been predicting a relapse of the war because despite all the

Hovik (00:18:07):

publicity,

Hovik (00:18:08):

Israel did not achieve its main goal.

Hovik (00:18:11):

So as 2026 is a midterm

Hovik (00:18:14):

election year, Israel reportedly wants to deal with Iran sooner rather than later.

Hovik (00:18:19):

And of course,

Hovik (00:18:21):

Trita Parsi was on our show a few months ago where he was also arguing that the

Hovik (00:18:26):

more Israel waits,

Hovik (00:18:28):

the more Iran can rearm itself.

Hovik (00:18:31):

So that is also a driving factor.

Hovik (00:18:33):

We're already seeing that these protests are being used as a pretext for the new

Hovik (00:18:41):

war,

Hovik (00:18:42):

like WMD was before.

Hovik (00:18:44):

Trump has basically said that,

Hovik (00:18:45):

you know, we'll see if Iran kills any of these people,

Hovik (00:18:48):

then we will get involved.

Hovik (00:18:50):

And then Western media immediately started amplifying the number of people dead, quoting

Hovik (00:18:57):

net, any defunded sources with a huge number of deaths that are unverifiable at this point.

Hovik (00:19:04):

But Trump's threats, Pietro, are very absolute and leave very little room for de-escalation.

Hovik (00:19:13):

The only question to ask is,

Hovik (00:19:14):

I think,

Hovik (00:19:15):

whether this will be a major attack or maybe something just a face-saving measure,

Hovik (00:19:20):

but is Tehran being backed into a corner,

Hovik (00:19:23):

in your opinion?

Pietro (00:19:24):

I think they definitely are being bent into a corner.

Pietro (00:19:26):

And I think, unfortunately, we're in for a war.

Pietro (00:19:30):

Because the way in which Trump is talking,

Pietro (00:19:33):

the actions,

Pietro (00:19:34):

the rhetoric,

Pietro (00:19:35):

everything,

Pietro (00:19:36):

it's very absolute.

Pietro (00:19:39):

And it would indicate to me that a war is pending.

Pietro (00:19:42):

When they do things like, say, all Americans have to leave Iran.

Pietro (00:19:46):

All Canadians have to leave Iran.

Pietro (00:19:48):

All Europeans, all citizens of the EU, of EU countries have to leave Iran.

Pietro (00:19:52):

Once they begin talking like that, then it's just a matter of time before the war begins.

Pietro (00:19:56):

As much as we might hope that it might be a limited strike,

Pietro (00:20:00):

I don't think it's going to be the case,

Pietro (00:20:02):

unfortunately, with that.

Pietro (00:20:03):

Trita Parsi has a good breakdown of potential scenarios of what might happen.

Pietro (00:20:08):

And so you can check that out on his sub stack.

Pietro (00:20:10):

He's probably the best.

Pietro (00:20:11):

I would recommend him as being the best commentator on Iranian affairs.

Pietro (00:20:15):

So if you want to.

Asbed (00:20:16):

We can put a link to that article in our show notes.

Pietro (00:20:18):

Yeah, absolutely.

Pietro (00:20:19):

So check his Substack on that.

Pietro (00:20:21):

But he actually was saying this is going to be a much more.

Pietro (00:20:25):

aggressive strike than any kind of, I guess you could say, limited strike on Iran.

Pietro (00:20:29):

There might be an effort even to do like a decapitation strike to kind of,

Pietro (00:20:33):

you know, cut off a certain element of leadership,

Pietro (00:20:34):

trying to do almost like a Venezuela in Iran,

Pietro (00:20:39):

which would be much,

Pietro (00:20:40):

much,

Pietro (00:20:41):

much, much more difficult if they attempt to do anything like this.

Pietro (00:20:45):

And that's not even counting.

Pietro (00:20:46):

Again, we're talking about a country that in terms of population, it's over 90 million people.

Pietro (00:20:52):

By area, it's the size of Mongolia.

Pietro (00:20:54):

Immense, immense diversity, ethnic diversity.

Pietro (00:20:58):

We saw in these recent riots how there were efforts to kind of manipulate the

Pietro (00:21:02):

courts against the Iranian state,

Pietro (00:21:05):

against Iran's unity as a state.

Pietro (00:21:08):

There have been also other attempts in the past to use other nationalities such as

Pietro (00:21:13):

Baluchis,

Pietro (00:21:14):

Azeris,

Pietro (00:21:15):

many others.

Pietro (00:21:17):

But it was actually quite interesting because even if you looked at these protests

Pietro (00:21:20):

that were in support of the government,

Pietro (00:21:22):

even in the Iranian-Azerbaijan province in the north,

Pietro (00:21:25):

in Tabriz,

Pietro (00:21:27):

you actually had mass demonstrations in support of the Islamic Republic.

Pietro (00:21:31):

So it's going to be quite interesting to see,

Pietro (00:21:36):

you know, their efforts to try and kind of foment kind of this disunity in Iran to foment

Pietro (00:21:41):

like a serious scenario in Iran.

Pietro (00:21:42):

But I frankly don't think it will work.

Pietro (00:21:45):

And I think that actually it could have serious repercussions on the United States,

Pietro (00:21:49):

on the West.

Pietro (00:21:50):

I actually see that there are many different scenarios that could unfold.

Pietro (00:21:54):

It could be that Iran actually launches a preemptive strike.

Pietro (00:21:57):

Because if you watch Iranian media,

Pietro (00:21:59):

they're actually talking already about this idea of doing a preemptive strike on

Pietro (00:22:04):

Israel.

Pietro (00:22:05):

There is also,

Pietro (00:22:06):

of course, the option that if the United States is involved,

Pietro (00:22:08):

they could target any number of bases,

Pietro (00:22:12):

any number of American military,

Pietro (00:22:13):

any amount of American military.

Pietro (00:22:15):

Like in Iraq and stuff.

Pietro (00:22:16):

Absolutely, in the Persian Gulf region.

Pietro (00:22:18):

In the Persian Gulf.

Pietro (00:22:19):

And then also there is the nuclear option of closing the Straits of Hormuz,

Pietro (00:22:23):

or at least doing a selective closing that would affect Western shipping and not,

Pietro (00:22:29):

let's say, Chinese shipping.

Pietro (00:22:31):

Right.

Asbed (00:22:31):

So as we're talking about this war possibly starting,

Asbed (00:22:34):

I want to mention that since the 12-day war in June,

Asbed (00:22:38):

Iran has been rebuilding its air defenses and missile stockpiles in anticipation of

Asbed (00:22:43):

a second U.S.-Israeli attack.

Asbed (00:22:45):

And China and Russia have been key suppliers of all this weaponry.

Asbed (00:22:49):

Moreover, while the comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia is not a defense pact,

Asbed (00:22:53):

it did include a significant defense component,

Asbed (00:22:56):

and military-technical cooperation has been ramping up in the last few months.

Asbed (00:23:01):

In your article,

Asbed (00:23:02):

you also underscore the intensification of diplomatic relations,

Asbed (00:23:06):

Pietro, as highlighted by the recent...

Asbed (00:23:09):

for a ministerial meeting in Moscow.

Asbed (00:23:12):

Araghchi and Lavrov met in December and there were some press releases from that.

Asbed (00:23:17):

Does this unrest,

Asbed (00:23:18):

do you think that this unrest pushes Tehran and Moscow closer together and how do

Asbed (00:23:24):

their interests start aligning in terms of perceiving common threats?

Pietro (00:23:28):

It does definitely push them much closer together.

Pietro (00:23:31):

Already we can say that actually after the,

Pietro (00:23:34):

even during the 12-day war in June,

Pietro (00:23:36):

already that pushed Iran and Russia much closer together.

Pietro (00:23:40):

So actually the Iranian parliament had not yet ratified the strategic,

Pietro (00:23:44):

the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty.

Pietro (00:23:46):

But during the June War, in the midst of everything going on, they ratified it then.

Pietro (00:23:53):

And then afterwards,

Pietro (00:23:54):

then you began to see a much deeper intensification of Russian-Iranian relations.

Pietro (00:24:00):

not only in terms of the defensive sphere,

Pietro (00:24:03):

but also in terms of also,

Pietro (00:24:04):

as we can see,

Pietro (00:24:06):

the diplomatic sphere.

Pietro (00:24:07):

So on December 17th, as I wrote in the article, Araghchi and Lavrov met in Moscow.

Pietro (00:24:12):

They basically inked a roadmap or action plan that would kind of facilitate

Pietro (00:24:18):

coordination and cooperation,

Pietro (00:24:20):

a deepening of cooperation between the Iranian and Russian foreign ministries for a

Pietro (00:24:24):

period of three years.

Pietro (00:24:27):

So this was actually quite significant.

Pietro (00:24:28):

And also to further underscore that,

Pietro (00:24:30):

Araghchi noted that,

Pietro (00:24:31):

you know,

Pietro (00:24:32):

over the past 18 months,

Pietro (00:24:34):

President Pezeshkian has met with Putin,

Pietro (00:24:36):

you know,

Pietro (00:24:38):

five times.

Pietro (00:24:39):

So just just, you know, kind of consider that, that he's even said actually even he noted that.

Pietro (00:24:47):

not only did they meet five times, but that this number is very important.

Pietro (00:24:51):

He emphasized that,

Pietro (00:24:52):

that this number,

Pietro (00:24:53):

he said emphatically,

Pietro (00:24:54):

this number is very,

Pietro (00:24:55):

so it's emphasizing again to any of those.

Asbed (00:24:58):

When he says this number,

Asbed (00:24:59):

is he referring to how high that number is,

Asbed (00:25:01):

for example,

Asbed (00:25:02):

how many times they've met?

Pietro (00:25:02):

How high that number is.

Pietro (00:25:03):

Yes,

Pietro (00:25:04):

five times within 18 months is a very high number,

Pietro (00:25:06):

and he's trying to emphasize that if you have any doubts about this relationship,

Pietro (00:25:10):

don't, because we are very close.

Pietro (00:25:12):

And that's versus,

Pietro (00:25:13):

let's say,

Pietro (00:25:14):

all these kind of op-eds you would see in the Western media,

Pietro (00:25:16):

particularly in the British press,

Pietro (00:25:18):

that try to make it sound like there's a big rift in Russo-Iranian relations and

Pietro (00:25:22):

all this and that.

Pietro (00:25:23):

So that's Russia.

Pietro (00:25:24):

And also, in addition, I should say this.

Pietro (00:25:26):

That in the end of December,

Pietro (00:25:29):

early January,

Pietro (00:25:32):

there were several flights of IL-76s,

Pietro (00:25:35):

large Russian transport planes to Iran,

Pietro (00:25:40):

you know, to,

Pietro (00:25:41):

I guess,

Pietro (00:25:42):

actually to kind of bolster Iran's defenses.

Pietro (00:25:45):

So the Russians already were understanding there's going to be a war.

Pietro (00:25:49):

And we want to make sure Iran does not fall.

Pietro (00:25:51):

We don't want Assyria in Iran.

Pietro (00:25:53):

So they were already kind of helping Iran prepare itself for what they perceived to

Pietro (00:26:00):

be this war that was going to happen.

Pietro (00:26:03):

Not only that,

Pietro (00:26:04):

also the Chinese,

Pietro (00:26:05):

as you also mentioned,

Pietro (00:26:07):

they too are very,

Pietro (00:26:08):

very keen on bolstering Iran.

Pietro (00:26:10):

It's been said that the shutdown of Starlink,

Pietro (00:26:13):

that actually the Iranians were able to block access to Starlink,

Pietro (00:26:17):

that this was due to the influence of the Chinese,

Pietro (00:26:20):

that the Chinese assisted the Iranians on this.

Pietro (00:26:23):

That's interesting. And these are these are very, very, by the way, they're very concrete ways of assistance.

Pietro (00:26:28):

So we're no longer talking about kind of like,

Pietro (00:26:30):

you know,

Pietro (00:26:31):

oh, yes,

Pietro (00:26:32):

the foreign ministry statements of condemnation and concern and all this and that.

Pietro (00:26:36):

We're talking about real concrete steps.

Pietro (00:26:39):

that the other members of BRICS,

Pietro (00:26:41):

the superpowers,

Pietro (00:26:42):

China and Russia,

Pietro (00:26:43):

that they're making sure Iran does not have the same fate as Syria.

Asbed (00:26:47):

So that was one of my questions as to what components of the strategic partnership

Asbed (00:26:53):

between the two countries was going to become more urgent given the current riots

Asbed (00:26:57):

and domestic unrest that Iran is experiencing.

Asbed (00:27:01):

You're telling me that it's probably the defense sector that becomes much more prominent.

Asbed (00:27:06):

What kind of

Asbed (00:27:07):

aspects do you see becoming more fluid between the two countries?

Asbed (00:27:12):

For example, military, industrial drones, ISR.

Asbed (00:27:17):

And when I say ISR,

Asbed (00:27:19):

I'm specifically thinking about the kind of ISR that Azerbaijan was provided by

Asbed (00:27:23):

Turkey and by extension NATO in its war against Artsakh in the 44 day war.

Asbed (00:27:28):

Do you expect that kind of assistance to be available to Iran?

Pietro (00:27:32):

I would think so,

Pietro (00:27:35):

that eventually, yes,

Pietro (00:27:36):

that kind of assistance is going to be definitely available to Iran,

Pietro (00:27:39):

because they're going to make sure,

Pietro (00:27:40):

you know,

Pietro (00:27:42):

that as much as possible,

Pietro (00:27:43):

Iran does not fall.

Pietro (00:27:44):

Again, why?

Pietro (00:27:45):

Because Iran is a major,

Pietro (00:27:46):

major node for BRICS connecting,

Pietro (00:27:50):

actually, really,

Pietro (00:27:51):

if you look at it geographically,

Pietro (00:27:53):

It borders both the post-Soviet republics of the Caucasus and Central Asia at the same time.

Pietro (00:27:59):

It's a major, major link that connects China with Russia.

Pietro (00:28:05):

It also connects not only... It's a huge country.

Asbed (00:28:08):

It's double the size of Turkey.

Pietro (00:28:11):

It's double the size of Turkey,

Pietro (00:28:12):

and also, you know,

Pietro (00:28:13):

you have to think that that's why this business of the north-south corridor is so

Pietro (00:28:17):

important for Russia and Iran,

Pietro (00:28:18):

not only the western corridor that we talk about with relation to Azerbaijan or the

Pietro (00:28:22):

Caucasus,

Pietro (00:28:23):

Armenia even has been mentioned as part of this,

Pietro (00:28:25):

potentially part of this western,

Pietro (00:28:27):

you know,

Pietro (00:28:28):

element of the corridor,

Pietro (00:28:30):

but also certainly in Central Asia.

Pietro (00:28:32):

That would probably actually be the most reliable,

Pietro (00:28:34):

at this point,

Pietro (00:28:35):

you know,

Pietro (00:28:36):

path for the corridor from north to south through Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

Pietro (00:28:41):

But it's an enormous country,

Pietro (00:28:42):

as you say, and also it provides access to the Persian Gulf,

Pietro (00:28:46):

to the Indian Ocean.

Pietro (00:28:47):

It's immense.

Pietro (00:28:48):

So there is not,

Pietro (00:28:51):

the Russians and the Chinese are not going to just let Iran,

Pietro (00:28:55):

you know, face the same fate as Syria or Libya.

Pietro (00:28:57):

It's definitely not going to be the case with that.

Pietro (00:29:01):

Also, it's quite interesting because you remember what else happened subsequent to the

Pietro (00:29:07):

12-day war.

Pietro (00:29:09):

Remember what happened with the Azerbaijanis in Russia in terms of the in terms of

Pietro (00:29:14):

the tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia.

Pietro (00:29:16):

There was kind of a

Pietro (00:29:18):

crackdown on diaspora, Azerbaijani diaspora groups in Russia itself, as we know.

Pietro (00:29:24):

And this also,

Pietro (00:29:26):

it's not only that,

Pietro (00:29:27):

I mean, because we also know a lot of people have analyzed this and they've looked at,

Pietro (00:29:31):

you know, the potential of,

Pietro (00:29:32):

you know,

Pietro (00:29:33):

Azerbaijani diaspora being involved with maybe supporting Ukraine or being involved

Pietro (00:29:37):

in criminal activities and many other things.

Pietro (00:29:40):

But there's also the element, too, we cannot discount, of the fact that

Pietro (00:29:44):

Among the Azerbaijani diaspora,

Pietro (00:29:46):

and among the Azerbaijani diaspora,

Pietro (00:29:49):

especially elements of that diaspora that have links to the Aliyev government,

Pietro (00:29:55):

there is, of course,

Pietro (00:29:56):

this kind of support for the so-called Southern Azerbaijan movement,

Pietro (00:29:59):

eventually irredentism on Iran to take over maybe Iranian Azerbaijan.

Pietro (00:30:04):

So remember, in the Strategic Partnership Treaty, there was a clause there.

Pietro (00:30:08):

that Russia would not allow any organizations on its territory that would support

Pietro (00:30:14):

secessionist movements in Iran.

Pietro (00:30:18):

So that was also another element that we also should kind of take into account.

Pietro (00:30:22):

But we will talk more about this Azerbaijani issue later on,

Pietro (00:30:25):

but that's an important issue also to kind of raise.

Asbed (00:30:28):

For the moment, I have one more question.

Asbed (00:30:31):

The U.S. war hawks are often mentioning China,

Asbed (00:30:33):

Russia,

Asbed (00:30:34):

Iran in one breath,

Asbed (00:30:36):

and they seem to be the new bogeyman for the neocons.

Asbed (00:30:38):

They're the new axis of evil.

Asbed (00:30:40):

What would a destabilize Iran mean for essentially this group,

Asbed (00:30:46):

which is the Eurasian component of BRICS?

Pietro (00:30:49):

Oh, it would be catastrophic, Asbed.

Pietro (00:30:52):

I mean, if that happened,

Pietro (00:30:53):

and not only would it be catastrophic for the fate of BRICS and the fate of

Pietro (00:30:57):

multipolarity,

Pietro (00:30:58):

I mean, multipolarity is not a process that would be something that would be stopped.

Pietro (00:31:02):

It might be because of this.

Pietro (00:31:04):

It might be slowed down.

Pietro (00:31:06):

It might be temporarily halted in some places, but it's impossible for the U.S.

Pietro (00:31:12):

to reassert a unipolarity if a unipolarity ever existed.

Pietro (00:31:16):

There are many, you know, when you talk about the U.S.

Pietro (00:31:18):

war hawks,

Pietro (00:31:19):

there are many people in the beltway in the in the so-called foreign policy blob

Pietro (00:31:24):

who believe,

Pietro (00:31:25):

again, that there was this great American unipolar moment in the 1990s and that we want to

Pietro (00:31:30):

preserve that as much as we can.

Pietro (00:31:32):

You know, we want to prevent the multipolar world from emerging.

Pietro (00:31:34):

But the reality is now we're in that multipolar world.

Pietro (00:31:38):

Right. And we have, you know, three major superpowers, the United States, China and Russia.

Pietro (00:31:44):

And we have India kind of rising as well, too, although they're not quite there yet.

Pietro (00:31:50):

But that's the world we live in.

Pietro (00:31:52):

And so there's an effort really to kind of stop this process.

Pietro (00:31:54):

But it wouldn't it wouldn't it wouldn't necessarily stop the rise of the multipolar world.

Pietro (00:32:00):

But what it would do is it would cause immense suffering and chaos across Eurasia.

Pietro (00:32:06):

it would leave a black hole in Eurasia.

Pietro (00:32:10):

So imagine Libya sitting right there between the Caucasus and South Asia and

Pietro (00:32:16):

Central Asia and the Middle East.

Pietro (00:32:18):

It would be a disaster, I was bet, if something like this occurred.

Pietro (00:32:22):

So for the security of both Russia and China,

Pietro (00:32:27):

they are not going to let this happen.

Pietro (00:32:30):

So I think that for Brexit would be a blow, and it would slow down the process of multipolarity.

Pietro (00:32:35):

But multipolarity, like I said, it's going to always rise.

Pietro (00:32:39):

But in terms of the strategic problems,

Pietro (00:32:41):

in terms of the security issues that would arise from a destabilized Iran,

Pietro (00:32:45):

from an Iran that would be basically another Syria,

Pietro (00:32:49):

it would be an immense catastrophe for the whole region,

Pietro (00:32:52):

and first and foremost for the people of Iran.

Pietro (00:32:55):

That's actually the greatest tragedy.

Pietro (00:32:56):

That would be the greatest tragedy.

Pietro (00:32:58):

There would not be this great kind of a rise,

Pietro (00:33:01):

let's say,

Pietro (00:33:02):

of a democratic government in Iran and all this and that.

Pietro (00:33:05):

In fact, actually, by the way, Trita Parsi also recently posted this too.

Pietro (00:33:10):

There were even commentaries on Israeli TV that even if Iran were to overthrow,

Pietro (00:33:16):

even if the Iranian people were to overthrow the Islamic Republic,

Pietro (00:33:20):

and replace it with a government that might be more palatable to us.

Pietro (00:33:24):

Like, let's say if

Pietro (00:33:26):

I don't know,

Pietro (00:33:28):

if it were to be a complete liberal democracy,

Pietro (00:33:31):

then Israel would still bomb Iran anyway.

Pietro (00:33:35):

This commentator was saying we would still bomb Iran anyway.

Pietro (00:33:37):

It doesn't matter. We just want to keep Iran in its place so it doesn't become a great power.

Asbed (00:33:42):

They have some strategic goals and they have to reach those and nothing is going to

Asbed (00:33:47):

stop them from their path until they reach those things.

Asbed (00:33:50):

But talking a little bit more about Russia,

Asbed (00:33:53):

for four years now,

Asbed (00:33:54):

they've been busy with the war in Ukraine.

Asbed (00:33:57):

And consequently,

Asbed (00:33:59):

Russia has avoided being fully active in a number of areas where its national

Asbed (00:34:04):

security is at stake.

Asbed (00:34:07):

Recently, however, we've seen a few signals from Moscow that is,

Asbed (00:34:10):

in fact,

Asbed (00:34:11):

starting to pay more attention to the South Caucasus,

Asbed (00:34:13):

Central Asia,

Asbed (00:34:14):

this whole TRIPP thing,

Asbed (00:34:16):

which we'll talk about in just a moment.

Asbed (00:34:19):

But if the US and Israel hit Iran,

Asbed (00:34:22):

is Russia suddenly more tuned to this or is it just going to be the customary

Asbed (00:34:27):

diplomatic statements of concern and condemnation?

Pietro (00:34:31):

It would not be,

Pietro (00:34:32):

I think that,

Pietro (00:34:34):

again,

Pietro (00:34:35):

like I said,

Pietro (00:34:36):

it's not going to be,

Pietro (00:34:38):

it's not going to just be that there are just going to be statements of

Pietro (00:34:40):

condemnation and concern.

Pietro (00:34:42):

The Russians are going to get involved.

Pietro (00:34:43):

They're going to help them as much as they can.

Pietro (00:34:46):

not like overtly,

Pietro (00:34:47):

not so much,

Pietro (00:34:48):

I guess you could say vocally,

Pietro (00:34:49):

but definitely in their own kind of quiet way behind the scenes to bolster the

Pietro (00:34:54):

Iranian defenses,

Pietro (00:34:55):

to help them out with intelligence,

Pietro (00:34:57):

whatever they need.

Pietro (00:34:58):

And also, again, we have to not discount the fact that first and foremost,

Pietro (00:35:02):

the Iranian state itself,

Pietro (00:35:04):

as we've seen with these protests,

Pietro (00:35:06):

even in a period of intense economic crisis,

Pietro (00:35:09):

that the government itself still enjoys legitimacy with the population,

Pietro (00:35:13):

and it is still institutionally quite strong.

Pietro (00:35:17):

And actually,

Pietro (00:35:18):

evidence of that is the fact that if you look at,

Pietro (00:35:20):

like, the IRGC,

Pietro (00:35:22):

if you look at the army,

Pietro (00:35:23):

if you look at the intelligence,

Pietro (00:35:25):

you know,

Pietro (00:35:26):

of Iran, if you look at all these different sectors of the state,

Pietro (00:35:29):

that they were all 100 percent loyal.

Pietro (00:35:31):

There was no wavering there at all.

Pietro (00:35:35):

And when you have 100% institutional support,

Pietro (00:35:39):

it's not going to be a case where the government is going to just be,

Pietro (00:35:42):

you know, you can just like,

Pietro (00:35:43):

you know, blow and then the government would collapse like a house of cards.

Pietro (00:35:46):

It's not going to be the case with this.

Pietro (00:35:47):

This is not Syria.

Pietro (00:35:48):

This is something else completely.

Pietro (00:35:50):

And that's where actually Israel and the United States make a huge underestimation.

Pietro (00:35:54):

So,

Pietro (00:35:55):

like I said,

Pietro (00:35:56):

Russia and China will be supporting Iran,

Pietro (00:35:59):

but most of the defense of Iran is going to be done by Iran itself.

Pietro (00:36:03):

It's going to be able to withstand this,

Pietro (00:36:04):

and it's going to be able to retaliate in a very fierce way.

Pietro (00:36:07):

We saw it in the 12-day war how they were reacting with Israel.

Pietro (00:36:10):

It was Israel that went to Trump saying,

Pietro (00:36:12):

look, we need to end the war because Iran is devastating us.

Pietro (00:36:16):

So that's what we're looking at with this.

Asbed (00:36:18):

So how do you read recent comments by Vladimir Solovyov about what I would see as

Asbed (00:36:25):

some layer of the Russian elite being fed up with color revolutions in countries

Asbed (00:36:30):

and allies of Russia?

Pietro (00:36:33):

Like which ones?

Asbed (00:36:35):

Well, I mean, he was clearly indicating maybe Armenia.

Asbed (00:36:40):

And right now we're having essentially a color revolution in Iran, right?

Asbed (00:36:45):

They're trying to do something about it.

Asbed (00:36:46):

So suddenly we also have Soloviev on Russian TV saying that Russia should be ready

Asbed (00:36:52):

for special military operations in countries in its near abroad or the post-Soviet

Asbed (00:36:58):

space.

Pietro (00:36:59):

And also you have to consider, too,

Pietro (00:37:00):

you know, who else was speaking was Margareta Simonyan,

Pietro (00:37:02):

who said that,

Pietro (00:37:03):

you know, Russia,

Pietro (00:37:04):

we're way too passive.

Pietro (00:37:05):

We have to be more active, right?

Pietro (00:37:06):

We're letting too much, you know, happen under our watch.

Pietro (00:37:12):

We can't be,

Pietro (00:37:13):

you know, allowing, you know,

Pietro (00:37:14):

that we are,

Pietro (00:37:15):

we can't be allowing the weakening of our defenses across our whole Eurasian

Pietro (00:37:20):

periphery to take place.

Pietro (00:37:21):

We have to respond in some way.

Pietro (00:37:23):

And Solovyov was basically, you know, he was concurring with that and saying that,

Pietro (00:37:28):

effectively,

Pietro (00:37:29):

that in particular with the Caucasus,

Pietro (00:37:31):

especially Armenia,

Pietro (00:37:32):

which was a pillar of the Russian security in the Caucasus historically,

Pietro (00:37:36):

and also with Central Asia,

Pietro (00:37:37):

we said,

Pietro (00:37:38):

we can't allow this,

Pietro (00:37:39):

you know,

Pietro (00:37:40):

to kind of proceed,

Pietro (00:37:41):

and we might even have to do

Pietro (00:37:44):

a special military operation in the post-Soviet space, right?

Pietro (00:37:48):

Didn't mention Armenia specifically,

Pietro (00:37:49):

but he said that maybe we would have to do a special military operation in

Pietro (00:37:52):

post-Soviet space.

Pietro (00:37:53):

Well, this alarmed the Pashinyan government and they sent a note of protest to the

Pietro (00:37:58):

Russian foreign ministry shortly after this,

Pietro (00:38:00):

which was kind of a little bit ridiculous.

Asbed (00:38:01):

I think actually the fact that they responded was more indicative of what was going on.

Asbed (00:38:06):

Who is thin-skinned about this?

Pietro (00:38:10):

Absolutely, absolutely.

Pietro (00:38:11):

And also it's very unlikely,

Pietro (00:38:12):

by the way, that because Russia has a lot of options,

Pietro (00:38:15):

you know,

Pietro (00:38:16):

as disposal, especially with a country like Armenia.

Pietro (00:38:19):

And they don't need to launch, let's say, an SMO.

Pietro (00:38:24):

They don't even need to do that necessarily.

Pietro (00:38:26):

There are other ways that can maybe influence things.

Pietro (00:38:29):

But they're not going to.

Pietro (00:38:30):

And I think that this was kind of like a way for the elite to kind of test out and

Pietro (00:38:34):

see how would that idea of an SMO in Armenia be received by the society.

Pietro (00:38:39):

But I think it was more,

Pietro (00:38:40):

not so much that,

Pietro (00:38:41):

but I think it was more this idea of sending a warning to

Pietro (00:38:48):

Pashinyan or to any government in the post-Soviet space,

Pietro (00:38:50):

look,

Pietro (00:38:51):

you guys better not cross us because we mean business.

Pietro (00:38:55):

So that's how I read that.

Hovik (00:38:56):

I want to actually go into a little bit about Armenia's role here in terms of color revolutions.

Hovik (00:39:04):

The Iran crisis is happening right next door to Armenia and this has been our

Hovik (00:39:09):

concern throughout 2025,

Hovik (00:39:12):

whether it is Armenia's external

Hovik (00:39:15):

communications backbone or the potential threat to security from any possible

Hovik (00:39:20):

influx of refugees,

Hovik (00:39:22):

it is a serious concern.

Hovik (00:39:24):

And another reason is that Iran may get really, really, really upset.

Hovik (00:39:30):

You know, its foreign policy red lines regarding Armenia's sovereignty over Sunni have been

Hovik (00:39:37):

a key pillar, I would say, that have kept Armenia whole since 2020.

Hovik (00:39:42):

It has even gone to the point of using very active displays of force against

Hovik (00:39:49):

Azerbaijan to warn Azerbaijan not to invade.

Hovik (00:39:53):

And now we have Iran's ambassador to Armenia today saying that Armenia is becoming

Hovik (00:39:59):

a hub for anti-Iranian forces.

Hovik (00:40:02):

The TRIPP project as well is a key example of that.

Hovik (00:40:07):

So how does this crisis in Iran affect its ability to enforce its red lines in the

Hovik (00:40:14):

South Caucasus,

Hovik (00:40:15):

in Armenia,

Hovik (00:40:16):

regarding TRIPP,

Hovik (00:40:17):

regarding the sovereignty of Armenia and the potential threat of separatism from

Hovik (00:40:23):

its north that could be fueled by Turkey and Azerbaijan?

Pietro (00:40:28):

It is extraordinarily concerned about this.

Pietro (00:40:30):

And it's not only the matter,

Pietro (00:40:31):

like you say,

Pietro (00:40:32):

about TRIPP, which already,

Pietro (00:40:33):

you know,

Pietro (00:40:34):

the Iranians already regard that as being,

Pietro (00:40:37):

you know,

Pietro (00:40:38):

kind of unacceptable,

Pietro (00:40:40):

completely unacceptable that the Armenian government is allowing this to happen,

Pietro (00:40:44):

that they are actually forging,

Pietro (00:40:46):

or at least the idea would be to have this corridor be jointly controlled by both

Pietro (00:40:51):

the U.S.

Pietro (00:40:52):

and Armenia.

Pietro (00:40:53):

Seventy-five percent of

Pietro (00:40:55):

I think the company.

Pietro (00:40:56):

I mean, this would be like that today Rubio made or actually recently Rubio was making the

Pietro (00:41:01):

statements about the specifics.

Pietro (00:41:03):

Yeah, today, actually, as a matter of fact.

Pietro (00:41:05):

And he was basically saying that,

Pietro (00:41:07):

you know, about maybe I want to say 74,

Pietro (00:41:10):

75% of this company would be 74% would be American owned and the rest

Pietro (00:41:14):

would be Armenian,

Pietro (00:41:15):

which is really nothing.

Pietro (00:41:17):

And for the Iranians, this would be a red line to invite the Americans in the region.

Pietro (00:41:23):

And also that would mean Israel, of course, would not be far behind that.

Pietro (00:41:28):

Also,

Pietro (00:41:29):

what's very interesting is how Pashinyan is making all sorts of warm diplomatic

Pietro (00:41:34):

gestures toward Israel,

Pietro (00:41:36):

which seems a little bit crazy in the current context,

Pietro (00:41:38):

because especially we consider what's going on in Gaza,

Pietro (00:41:42):

the genocide in Gaza,

Pietro (00:41:45):

Again, it's like moving toward the EU.

Pietro (00:41:47):

When Pashinyan says he wants to join the EU,

Pietro (00:41:49):

it's like swimming against the stream of what actually is happening in the world.

Pietro (00:41:57):

And the same thing we can say when he wants to get close to Israel at a time when

Pietro (00:42:01):

most of the countries in the world,

Pietro (00:42:02):

when most of the world is appalled by what Israel is doing to the Palestinians in

Pietro (00:42:08):

Gaza, the genocide in Gaza.

Pietro (00:42:10):

that to move toward it,

Pietro (00:42:12):

it seems like completely ridiculous,

Pietro (00:42:13):

especially when you understand that Armenia has been hurt by Israel's support of

Pietro (00:42:21):

Azerbaijan in a very,

Pietro (00:42:22):

very real way.

Pietro (00:42:23):

When we look at the 2020 war,

Pietro (00:42:26):

when we look at the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh in 2023,

Pietro (00:42:31):

that Israel was behind that.

Pietro (00:42:34):

Once Azerbaijan took these southern districts of Artsakh that were on the border with Iran,

Pietro (00:42:40):

Israel, basically established themselves there as kind of like i guess you

Pietro (00:42:45):

could say in so-called smart villages overlooking Iranian territory um so and and

Asbed (00:42:51):

we should also think about why we need so many international airports in a place

Pietro (00:42:54):

where there are more more airports than there are people very very very perceptive

Pietro (00:43:00):

i like i like your thinking uh you you got it and and that's the same thing we talk

Pietro (00:43:04):

about

Pietro (00:43:06):

Pashinyan, it just baffles the mind that these are moves that seem to be,

Pietro (00:43:10):

and that's not even counting the fact that allowing opponents of the government of

Pietro (00:43:16):

Iran to protest so vocally and openly in front of the Iranian embassy,

Pietro (00:43:22):

it shows me that this is a government in Yerevan that is not so concerned with the

Pietro (00:43:27):

relationship with Iran.

Pietro (00:43:28):

Now, it used to be before there was an effort

Pietro (00:43:31):

I mean,

Pietro (00:43:32):

it wasn't really enough, but that people would,

Pietro (00:43:34):

you know,

Pietro (00:43:35):

analysts would look at this and they would say,

Pietro (00:43:36):

well, you know, Armenia,

Pietro (00:43:37):

they're able to maintain the good relations with Iran,

Pietro (00:43:39):

but,

Pietro (00:43:40):

you know, the problems are with Russia,

Pietro (00:43:41):

you know,

Pietro (00:43:42):

and all this and that.

Pietro (00:43:44):

But, you know, really what we're seeing now is a pattern where

Pietro (00:43:48):

both the relations with Iran and Russia,

Pietro (00:43:50):

which are crucial for the security and survival of the Armenian Republic.

Pietro (00:43:55):

And both of those are coming under strain under the present government of Armenia.

Pietro (00:44:02):

So that's, it's all, you know, quite important.

Pietro (00:44:05):

But this TRIPP,

Pietro (00:44:06):

you know,

Pietro (00:44:07):

again, it's like Trump,

Pietro (00:44:08):

I make the joke that this is like Trump's tripwire.

Pietro (00:44:12):

in in in the south caucuses right and so the idea is that that's what he's kind of

Pietro (00:44:16):

like setting it up to be like a trip wire for Russia and Iran, to almost like stick it

Pietro (00:44:21):

to both Moscow and Tehran that we can get involved in your neighborhood that you

Pietro (00:44:24):

know see not only this we want to kick you out of your neighborhood even um but of

Pietro (00:44:28):

course when you go back to the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty that was

Pietro (00:44:32):

signed on the eve of trump's inauguration

Pietro (00:44:36):

to give extra symbolism here for the president.

Pietro (00:44:41):

At the end of the day, that was a message.

Pietro (00:44:43):

Don't think you can do this.

Pietro (00:44:46):

Actually, Trump should have gotten the message then.

Pietro (00:44:48):

The supposedly anti-interventionist,

Pietro (00:44:50):

anti-war Trump should have gotten the message from Moscow and Tehran,

Pietro (00:44:54):

don't play around in our neighborhoods.

Pietro (00:44:57):

We have in this treaty,

Pietro (00:44:58):

we have specific,

Pietro (00:44:59):

you know,

Pietro (00:45:00):

we have specific,

Pietro (00:45:01):

very, very direct,

Pietro (00:45:04):

you know,

Pietro (00:45:05):

we have a direct position expressed that no external actors should get involved in

Pietro (00:45:11):

the regional neighborhood of Russia and Iran,

Pietro (00:45:14):

and specifically in the Caucasus.

Pietro (00:45:17):

But yet Trump has, within the whole of 2025, had no problem completely flaunting that.

Pietro (00:45:23):

And that actually,

Pietro (00:45:24):

what's most interesting for me,

Pietro (00:45:26):

watching this with Trump,

Pietro (00:45:27):

is that we can say,

Pietro (00:45:29):

I mean, how much when you watch the American media,

Pietro (00:45:31):

you hear a lot of buzz about,

Pietro (00:45:34):

oh, you know, Trump betrayed his mega base,

Pietro (00:45:36):

this kind of a thing.

Pietro (00:45:38):

It's not only that he went against his mega base on many issues,

Pietro (00:45:42):

but in particular on this issue of war and peace,

Pietro (00:45:45):

but it's also the fact that he even went so far as to really embrace the

Pietro (00:45:49):

neoconservative ideology.

Pietro (00:45:51):

So, yes, when we look at Venezuela, he went in there for the oil.

Pietro (00:45:54):

He wasn't making, you know, it was very direct.

Pietro (00:45:56):

He wasn't going to address that up in,

Pietro (00:45:57):

like,

Pietro (00:45:58):

freedom and democracy and human rights or anything like that.

Pietro (00:46:02):

But on the other hand, we look at Iran now.

Pietro (00:46:04):

He's saying things like, oh, yes, I support the freedom for the Iranian people.

Pietro (00:46:08):

And so he's kind of already, he's morphing into George W. Bush.

Pietro (00:46:16):

That's what I'm seeing here.

Pietro (00:46:17):

I mean, this is like Iraq.

Pietro (00:46:19):

This is just like Iraq to me.

Pietro (00:46:21):

It's like deja vu for me, really.

Hovik (00:46:24):

Pietro,

Hovik (00:46:25):

Zionists,

Hovik (00:46:27):

or another name for neocons in the US,

Hovik (00:46:29):

cheered at the defeat of Armenia in 2020.

Hovik (00:46:33):

They cheered when Artsakh was ethnically cleansed in 2023.

Hovik (00:46:38):

And US neocons, namely in the face of, let's say, Luke Coffey,

Hovik (00:46:46):

who is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute,

Hovik (00:46:50):

have been calling for Azerbaijan to,

Hovik (00:46:52):

quote,

Hovik (00:46:53):

be ready when Iran starts to disintegrate.

Hovik (00:46:59):

I mean, they were just salivating at the thought of Iran's protests getting worse.

Hovik (00:47:08):

How likely do you see Azerbaijan and Turkey becoming engaged in the disintegration

Hovik (00:47:15):

and the splitting up of Iran,

Hovik (00:47:17):

if that,

Hovik (00:47:18):

God forbid,

Hovik (00:47:19):

happens?

Pietro (00:47:20):

I think that, well,

Pietro (00:47:21):

of course, as we know, Turkey and Azerbaijan are quite close,

Pietro (00:47:23):

but I think that their positions are actually a little bit distinct in this regard,

Pietro (00:47:28):

because I don't think Turkey is for it.

Pietro (00:47:31):

a Syrianization of Iran.

Pietro (00:47:33):

I don't think they want that, because they got a taste of that already.

Pietro (00:47:36):

When the Kurds became active in Iran, that became an issue for them.

Pietro (00:47:39):

And they understand,

Pietro (00:47:40):

well, if Iran were to fragment,

Pietro (00:47:41):

let's say,

Pietro (00:47:42):

along ethnic lines,

Pietro (00:47:44):

that would be an issue for them in terms of Kurdistan.

Pietro (00:47:48):

on your program.

Hovik (00:47:49):

Yeah, but at the same time, they have a huge Turkish population in Iran as well.

Pietro (00:47:53):

I know.

Pietro (00:47:54):

Well, that's what I'm about to address.

Pietro (00:47:55):

That's what I'm about to address.

Pietro (00:47:57):

Recently, Hovik,

Pietro (00:47:58):

you had Eldar Mamedov on your podcast of the Quincy Institute,

Pietro (00:48:02):

and he made a very interesting post on Facebook recently where he basically said

Pietro (00:48:07):

that indeed,

Pietro (00:48:09):

this is not a matter of likelihood now,

Pietro (00:48:11):

that indeed,

Pietro (00:48:12):

if there was a Syrianization of Iran,

Pietro (00:48:17):

the government in Baku, the regime in Baku, Aliyev's regime, would get involved directly.

Pietro (00:48:24):

No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

Pietro (00:48:26):

That according to his information coming from the Republic of Azerbaijan,

Pietro (00:48:30):

that they would get involved.

Pietro (00:48:32):

So,

Pietro (00:48:33):

and we're talking about more than just like we saw in the last war,

Pietro (00:48:36):

where Azerbaijan would be used as like a launching pad for Israeli attacks,

Pietro (00:48:39):

something like this.

Pietro (00:48:40):

We're talking more like a direct involvement.

Pietro (00:48:43):

If Iran were to fragment now,

Pietro (00:48:45):

again, that's assuming the Iranian government is so weak that it would it would fall for

Pietro (00:48:50):

that it would break up along the lines of like,

Pietro (00:48:52):

you know, a Syria scenario.

Pietro (00:48:54):

I don't think that that's likely.

Pietro (00:48:55):

But if it did happen, there are talks in Baku of taking advantage of it.

Asbed (00:49:00):

So is this exactly why Azerbaijan is arming itself to the teeth?

Asbed (00:49:04):

Because we've always wondered the way that they've been rearming themselves since

Asbed (00:49:09):

2020 has probably nothing to do with Armenia because they need like 3% or 5% of

Asbed (00:49:16):

that to defeat Armenia again.

Pietro (00:49:18):

They're preparing for a much larger war, right?

Pietro (00:49:21):

And they also,

Pietro (00:49:22):

they're emboldened because they saw that what happened in 2023,

Pietro (00:49:24):

well,

Pietro (00:49:25):

we conquered

Pietro (00:49:28):

uh you know art sock by force nobody said anything and and you know what that this

Pietro (00:49:33):

is the way you resolve conflicts and especially nowadays because when we look at

Pietro (00:49:37):

what trump has done with venezuela with what he's doing with his threats toward

Pietro (00:49:42):

greenland right yeah and we have mentioned this on january 5th yeah when he says

Pietro (00:49:47):

the only thing as bad he said the only thing that limits me and my power

Pietro (00:49:53):

is my morality.

Pietro (00:49:54):

He's told this to the New York Times, right?

Pietro (00:49:57):

And that position was endorsed by Aliyev, as a matter of fact.

Pietro (00:50:02):

Aliyev likes the law of the jungle.

Pietro (00:50:04):

He has no use for international law.

Pietro (00:50:08):

Maybe he has use in sometimes when it suits him, but in general, he has no use for it.

Pietro (00:50:12):

He prefers the law of the jungle where you can just conquer a territory, expel the population.

Asbed (00:50:18):

And he has no use for morality either.

Pietro (00:50:20):

And he has no use for morality.

Pietro (00:50:22):

So there's really nothing stuff.

Pietro (00:50:23):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:50:23):

I mean, even the word morality, heavily in quotes, heavily, you know, italic.

Hovik (00:50:29):

But yeah, I think.

Hovik (00:50:31):

That was a very weird statement from Trump, you know, his own morality.

Pietro (00:50:35):

Absolutely.

Pietro (00:50:36):

And that's what so what I what I'm actually seeing is that if there is a

Pietro (00:50:41):

fragmentation of Iran,

Pietro (00:50:42):

if there is a Syria scenario being played out in Iran,

Pietro (00:50:45):

that really Azerbaijan,

Pietro (00:50:47):

of course, they would take advantage of that.

Pietro (00:50:48):

They would get involved.

Pietro (00:50:50):

They would help foment,

Pietro (00:50:51):

I guess, the,

Pietro (00:50:52):

you know, a kind of a breakaway Azerbaijan Republic there in the north of Iran.

Pietro (00:50:57):

And so that is definitely in the cards.

Pietro (00:51:01):

So while Turkey in many respects might not like the fragmentation of Iran because

Pietro (00:51:05):

they understand,

Pietro (00:51:06):

even with Syria,

Pietro (00:51:07):

even with Syria,

Pietro (00:51:08):

there's a lot of kind of buyer's remorse within the Turkish elite about Syria

Pietro (00:51:13):

because the breakup of that state,

Pietro (00:51:15):

de facto breakup of that state,

Pietro (00:51:17):

has exposed Turkey to new security dilemmas that they didn't have before.

Pietro (00:51:21):

So I think that at the end of the day,

Pietro (00:51:25):

though,

Pietro (00:51:26):

despite all these scenarios that we're outlining here,

Pietro (00:51:29):

I think that the Iranian state is strong enough that it is going to be able to

Pietro (00:51:35):

withstand this.

Pietro (00:51:37):

And I think that actually this gambit of Israel and Trump,

Pietro (00:51:41):

of Netanyahu and Trump,

Pietro (00:51:42):

is not going to end very well.

Pietro (00:51:45):

So that's at least how I see it.

Pietro (00:51:46):

Oh, I also want just to say this, that, you know, I mean, you mentioned about Luke Coffee.

Pietro (00:51:50):

I just want to say that to our audience.

Pietro (00:51:53):

I would prefer if our audience,

Pietro (00:51:54):

rather than read Luke Coffee,

Pietro (00:51:56):

if you could buy a coffee for Groong and Asbed and Hovik,

Pietro (00:52:00):

because that would be the best thing.

Pietro (00:52:01):

This is a great podcast.

Hovik (00:52:03):

That's funny. Podcasts.Groong.org/donate.

Pietro (00:52:06):

Podcasts.Groong.org/donate.

Pietro (00:52:08):

That's funny.

Asbed (00:52:08):

We won't edit that one out.

Pietro (00:52:10):

Yeah, keep that in.

Pietro (00:52:11):

Please keep that in.

Hovik (00:52:12):

But obviously,

Hovik (00:52:14):

I mean, the way that Luke Coffey sounds,

Hovik (00:52:16):

he sounds even cheaper than the $5 fee for donating to Groong.

Hovik (00:52:20):

So, yeah.

Hovik (00:52:22):

I mean, to close off this topic,

Hovik (00:52:24):

I'm really concerned about TRIPP being used as essentially the way that it is

Hovik (00:52:32):

structured right now,

Hovik (00:52:33):

especially. As a...

Hovik (00:52:36):

platform as a launching point for Israel and the United States and all the neocons,

Hovik (00:52:44):

all the warmongers to put pressure on Iran for the foreseeable future?

Hovik (00:52:48):

We talked about at least 49 years and 50 more years potentially afterwards.

Hovik (00:52:54):

This seems like a dream come true for Zionists, to be honest.

Hovik (00:52:57):

How do you see it?

Hovik (00:52:58):

I mean, is it possible to... We had, of course, Fyodor Lukyanov on our podcast and

Hovik (00:53:05):

We all understand that Russia is currently involved in a war that is framed as an

Hovik (00:53:10):

existential war for both sides.

Hovik (00:53:13):

So it is a little bit limited in terms of what it can do kinetically in Armenia.

Hovik (00:53:18):

But Lukyanov was very clear with us that Russia also has interests.

Hovik (00:53:26):

And what happens when interests of major countries are ignored?

Hovik (00:53:31):

or in fact, they are subverted in deals like this.

Hovik (00:53:36):

That's my concern for TRIPP,

Hovik (00:53:38):

both in terms of regional stability and also as a platform for attacking Iran in

Hovik (00:53:44):

the future.

Hovik (00:53:45):

Can something be done to make it more balanced in your opinion?

Pietro (00:53:50):

Well, it will not be so balanced if an American company owns 74% of it.

Pietro (00:53:56):

I mean, right there, that would skew the possibilities of TRIPP.

Pietro (00:54:02):

But I will say this,

Pietro (00:54:04):

that what I think is just so outrageous about all this is how,

Pietro (00:54:09):

when we talk about,

Pietro (00:54:11):

I guess,

Pietro (00:54:12):

the neoconservative movement in the United States or President Trump or whatever...

Pietro (00:54:16):

that there are so many problems in the United States, right?

Pietro (00:54:20):

We look at Minneapolis.

Pietro (00:54:22):

We look at the issue with the ICE officer, right?

Pietro (00:54:24):

With a woman who was shot by the ICE officer.

Pietro (00:54:28):

I mean, it was just complete.

Pietro (00:54:29):

I mean, it was murder.

Pietro (00:54:31):

And it's just a sample of all the problems that the United States has that,

Pietro (00:54:37):

you know, the United States has to get its house in order.

Pietro (00:54:41):

It has to, you know, become a functioning republic again.

Pietro (00:54:45):

Right.

Pietro (00:54:46):

And the problem is with all these wars,

Pietro (00:54:50):

it's it's really,

Pietro (00:54:52):

you know,

Pietro (00:54:53):

it's a huge it's an enormous distraction from the real problems.

Pietro (00:54:56):

And actually, I have to say this is not only as somebody who is Armenian descent,

Pietro (00:55:00):

but Armenian American,

Pietro (00:55:01):

it's incredibly painful for me to watch.

Pietro (00:55:05):

know what's what's happening because at the end of the day I mean there's so much

Pietro (00:55:09):

potential in in really kind of you know uh you know turning the ship of the united

Pietro (00:55:14):

states around but in fact they're just doubling down on these forever wars that

Pietro (00:55:19):

that i think is kind of the most grotesque part of it and as for something like

Pietro (00:55:23):

this it is an effort I think to really kind of you know stick it to Russia

Pietro (00:55:28):

and Iran but you were asking me

Pietro (00:55:31):

What happens when the interests of a superpower are ignored?

Pietro (00:55:36):

Well, we can see.

Pietro (00:55:38):

Look at Ukraine.

Pietro (00:55:39):

There's your answer.

Pietro (00:55:40):

Look at Georgia in 2008.

Pietro (00:55:41):

There's your answer.

Pietro (00:55:43):

A very bearish reaction.

Pietro (00:55:45):

Just imagine,

Pietro (00:55:46):

by the way, what might happen if something similar unfolded with Taiwan,

Pietro (00:55:50):

with the Chinese.

Pietro (00:55:51):

So you don't want to.

Asbed (00:55:54):

America is never going to take care of its problems.

Asbed (00:55:56):

They're too hard.

Asbed (00:55:57):

And it's a lot easier to ask and demand other people to take care of their own

Asbed (00:56:01):

problems and threaten them for not doing so.

Asbed (00:56:04):

So that's how we deal with it.

Asbed (00:56:06):

Unfortunately.

Asbed (00:56:07):

Hovik, when you were saying that this is a Zionist dream come true,

Asbed (00:56:10):

I was thinking about a motto that I've heard where they say the only way to predict

Asbed (00:56:14):

the future is to invent it.

Asbed (00:56:16):

So that's what's going on here.

Asbed (00:56:18):

I want to finish up with one thing that happened today,

Asbed (00:56:21):

as a matter of fact,

Asbed (00:56:22):

because over the last few hours,

Asbed (00:56:23):

the Armenian government announced that Azerbaijan has released four Armenian

Asbed (00:56:28):

hostages previously held in Baku.

Asbed (00:56:30):

They include Viken Yuljekjyan, Vagif Khachatryan, Gevork Sujyan, and David Davtyan.

Asbed (00:56:38):

All of them were released to Armenian custody at Berdzor,

Asbed (00:56:42):

and at least 19 of them still remain in captivity in Baku.

Asbed (00:56:46):

So I wanted to know, how do you assess this move for Armenia and also for the region?

Asbed (00:56:52):

And was it actually a surprise to you, Pietro?

Asbed (00:56:56):

Let me answer that question for myself.

Asbed (00:56:59):

We've been expecting these things to happen,

Asbed (00:57:00):

and I expect that there will be a trickle of these releases all the way to the June

Asbed (00:57:05):

election. But what do you think?

Pietro (00:57:07):

I think in part,

Pietro (00:57:08):

I think that you have a very good sensibility because I think part of it is

Pietro (00:57:12):

intended to kind of,

Pietro (00:57:13):

you know, manipulate voters into thinking,

Pietro (00:57:15):

you know, Pashinyan,

Pietro (00:57:16):

actually, he's not such a bad guy,

Pietro (00:57:17):

you know, because right now,

Pietro (00:57:18):

as I was saying on other podcasts,

Pietro (00:57:20):

as we saw also recently in the most recent polls,

Pietro (00:57:22):

Pashinyan's popularity is like sinking like a rock.

Pietro (00:57:26):

So he needs to find something to do to kind of bolster that, right?

Pietro (00:57:29):

He's even trying to appeal to youth.

Pietro (00:57:31):

He's doing these kind of like,

Pietro (00:57:33):

you know,

Pietro (00:57:34):

he's listening to music every morning,

Pietro (00:57:35):

making the heart emoji,

Pietro (00:57:37):

whatever, all this kind of crazy stuff.

Pietro (00:57:39):

And even, by the way, he even did that controversially,

Pietro (00:57:41):

most controversially on New Year's Eve in the light show,

Pietro (00:57:44):

which was really kind of a serious violation of,

Pietro (00:57:47):

you know,

Pietro (00:57:48):

between the state and the ruling party and all this.

Pietro (00:57:50):

And so anyway, in terms of the violation of those boundaries,

Pietro (00:57:54):

But in terms of what do I think about this part of it,

Pietro (00:57:58):

I believe,

Pietro (00:58:00):

you know,

Pietro (00:58:01):

it serves the political interests of Nikol Pashinyan.

Pietro (00:58:04):

It serves the political interests of the current ruling party of Armenia.

Pietro (00:58:08):

But also,

Pietro (00:58:09):

I think there was probably an element here,

Pietro (00:58:12):

some agency of Syria,

Pietro (00:58:13):

because we also got news that two Syrian jihadists,

Pietro (00:58:18):

mercenaries,

Pietro (00:58:19):

actually,

Pietro (00:58:20):

were released from imprisonment in Armenia.

Asbed (00:58:25):

Life imprisonment.

Pietro (00:58:26):

Life imprisonment in Armenia.

Pietro (00:58:28):

And they were sent back to Syria.

Pietro (00:58:30):

So it could have been a situation where al-Jolani called up Erdogan and said,

Pietro (00:58:34):

you know, I want these guys back.

Pietro (00:58:36):

And I know they're in Yerevan.

Pietro (00:58:37):

Is there anything you can do?

Pietro (00:58:38):

And then, you know, Erdogan went to Aliyev.

Pietro (00:58:41):

And then this deal was negotiated.

Pietro (00:58:44):

And it was also certainly...

Pietro (00:58:46):

And I'm sure that the significance was not missed on Mr.

Pietro (00:58:48):

Erdogan,

Pietro (00:58:49):

that this would be also beneficial for us because we would prefer Pashinyan to stay

Pietro (00:58:52):

in power.

Pietro (00:58:53):

So it would kind of help us.

Pietro (00:58:54):

It would be our interest too.

Asbed (00:58:56):

Do you think there's any relationship of this one exchange with Iran and TRIPP or

Asbed (00:59:01):

anything like that?

Pietro (00:59:03):

I think that the timing is certainly suspect because this is all happening amidst,

Pietro (00:59:08):

you know,

Pietro (00:59:09):

this growing,

Pietro (00:59:10):

you know,

Pietro (00:59:11):

the coming storm of this war with Iran that we're witnessing now.

Pietro (00:59:16):

I mean, and also amid the riots and everything like that.

Pietro (00:59:21):

And amid the kind of, I guess you could say, failed color revolution in Iran.

Pietro (00:59:26):

And so now there is this, I think,

Pietro (00:59:31):

So I think it does have maybe kind of a geopolitical implication,

Pietro (00:59:34):

maybe to kind of,

Pietro (00:59:36):

I think because Armenia,

Pietro (00:59:37):

it's understood that by both the West and Russia,

Pietro (00:59:43):

or by both specifically the United States and Russia,

Pietro (00:59:45):

that to kind of bolster maybe the position of Armenia for our interests in this

Pietro (00:59:52):

region.

Pietro (00:59:53):

And so I think it also should be looked at in that context,

Pietro (00:59:57):

that maybe this was a move done to kind of help maybe a government that would be

Pietro (01:00:04):

more kind of critical toward Iran in Russia.

Pietro (01:00:07):

So it could be that, too.

Pietro (01:00:09):

I don't exclude that that was one of the calculations that was made in this.

Hovik (01:00:12):

I mean,

Hovik (01:00:13):

I see the reports about this,

Hovik (01:00:16):

the details about this TRIPP that was just also released today.

Hovik (01:00:20):

you know, it confirmed my fears about Armenia's loss of sovereignty.

Hovik (01:00:25):

And I think the timing could be related to the timing of the releases could be

Hovik (01:00:29):

related just to sort of mask that initial shock in the media,

Hovik (01:00:34):

because,

Hovik (01:00:36):

you know,

Hovik (01:00:37):

we'll cover more about this TRIPP deal in the future podcast,

Hovik (01:00:41):

but it is really concerning.

Hovik (01:00:43):

And, you know,

Hovik (01:00:45):

I don't know how Armenia is going to get out of this.

Hovik (01:00:48):

And with regard to the prisoners,

Hovik (01:00:51):

I'm glad that our boys are coming home,

Hovik (01:00:52):

but many more remain back in Baku.

Hovik (01:00:56):

I can only imagine what torture and torment they have suffered all this time,

Hovik (01:01:01):

and the remaining ones are being subject to continuously still today.

Hovik (01:01:08):

But we should remember that the fact that they were even captured as prisoners was

Hovik (01:01:13):

because of Pashinyan.

Hovik (01:01:16):

The fact that they were held so long as prisoners was because of Pashinyan.

Hovik (01:01:20):

I'm sure that Pashinyan is elated that these hostages didn't come sooner rather

Hovik (01:01:26):

than when they were held for all these years.

Hovik (01:01:28):

Joe said that they could be released prior to his election campaign and give him a

Hovik (01:01:33):

little boost in his elections.

Hovik (01:01:35):

Well,

Pietro (01:01:35):

I just I also just I just also want to just add something else to that,

Pietro (01:01:38):

of course,

Pietro (01:01:39):

that I think that especially in terms of my own sentiments,

Pietro (01:01:42):

I just want to say this to the families of those who are coming home.

Pietro (01:01:46):

It's it's a it's

Pietro (01:01:48):

a wonderful thing.

Pietro (01:01:49):

I mean, they're finally out of this horrific captivity after all this time.

Pietro (01:01:53):

But also at the same time,

Pietro (01:01:55):

while we should be celebrating,

Pietro (01:01:57):

while we should be happy about this,

Pietro (01:02:00):

we should not look at this uncritically.

Pietro (01:02:02):

And we should also look at maybe the geopolitical interests that are behind this as well.

Pietro (01:02:05):

It's very important to look at that aspect of it.

Pietro (01:02:10):

So, yeah, I mean, absolutely everything to what to what Hoveek said.

Pietro (01:02:14):

It is.

Pietro (01:02:17):

I think that this was something that was done, you know, for maybe a political purpose.

Pietro (01:02:22):

I guess we'll be getting more information on that, you know, soon enough.

Hovik (01:02:28):

Okay, let's leave it here for today, folks.

Hovik (01:02:30):

Thank you, Pietro.

Hovik (01:02:31):

This was an interesting discussion.

Pietro (01:02:33):

Thank you, Pietro.

Pietro (01:02:34):

Thank you. Thank you, Hovik.

Pietro (01:02:35):

Thank you, Asbed.

Pietro (01:02:36):

It was a great pleasure to be here, guys.

Pietro (01:02:38):

I always love being on your show.

Pietro (01:02:40):

Thank you so much.

Asbed (01:02:41):

Talk to you again.

Pietro (01:02:42):

Thank you.

Asbed (01:02:44):

That's our show today, Hovik.

Asbed (01:02:46):

The episode is recorded, as you said, earlier, January 14, 2026.

Asbed (01:02:51):

And we've been talking to our longtime colleague who has been on our show many

Asbed (01:02:55):

times,

Asbed (01:02:56):

Dr. Pietro Shakarian,

Asbed (01:02:57):

a historian of Russia and the Soviet Union and a lecturer in history at the

Asbed (01:03:02):

American University of Armenia in Yerevan.

Asbed (01:03:04):

He was previously a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Historical Research at

Asbed (01:03:08):

the National Research University Higher Ed of Economics in St.

Asbed (01:03:12):

Petersburg, Russia.

Asbed (01:03:13):

He is the author of the book Anastas Mikoyan,

Asbed (01:03:16):

an Armenian Reformer in Khrushchev's Kremlin,

Asbed (01:03:19):

which came out back in 2025.

Asbed (01:03:20):

And we've had a podcast discussing that book with him a couple of times.

Hovik (01:03:26):

All right.

Hovik (01:03:27):

As Pietro says, you know, instead of listening to Luke coffee, just buy us a coffee.

Hovik (01:03:33):

Podcasts.Groong.org/donate.

Asbed (01:03:35):

Thank you very much, folks.

Asbed (01:03:36):

I'm Asbed Bedrossian in Los Angeles.

Hovik (01:03:40):

And I'm Hovik Manucharyan in Gavar,

Hovik (01:03:43):

Armenia,

Hovik (01:03:44):

occupied Armenia,

Hovik (01:03:45):

where it's minus 10 degrees Celsius currently.

Hovik (01:03:48):

So enjoy the warm weather in LA, Asbed.

Asbed (01:03:52):

Thank you. We have 80 degrees Fahrenheit here.

Hovik (01:03:56):

Nice.

Asbed (01:03:57):

Talk to you soon.

Hovik (01:03:58):

Bye-bye.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

Pietro Shakarian

Guest

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