Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

David Davidian - Armenia’s Foreign Intel Service Annual Report | Ep 511, Jan 31, 2026

• Armenian News Network / Groong • Episode 511

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Conversations on Groong - Jan 31, 2026

Topics:
  - Foreign intelligence service
  - FIS report, strategic gaps
  - Azerbaijan risk and deterrence
  - Hybrid threats and elections
  - TRIPP, AI, and data risks

Guest: David Davidian

Hosts:
  - Hovik Manucharyan
  - Asbed Bedrossian

Episode 511 | Recorded: Jan 28, 2026

SHOW NOTES: https://podcasts.groong.org/511

VIDEO: https://youtu.be/dMX6GW54Eek

#Groong #Armenia #FIS #ForeignIntelligence #NationalSecurity #TRIPP


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Asbed (00:00:04):

Hello, everyone, and welcome to this Conversations on Groong episode.

Asbed (00:00:08):

David Davidian joins us today to discuss the recently released annual report by the

Asbed (00:00:12):

Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia.

Asbed (00:00:14):

Mr.

Asbed (00:00:15):

Davidian is a lecturer at the American University of Armenia with extensive

Asbed (00:00:19):

background in IT and technical intelligence analysis.

Asbed (00:00:23):

David, welcome to the Groong podcast.

Asbed (00:00:25):

We're glad to have you back on the show.

David (00:00:27):

Oh, it's great to be here again.

Hovik (00:00:29):

Welcome, David.

Hovik (00:00:30):

Thank you.

Hovik (00:00:31):

Well, David, we wanted to talk to you because you recently wrote an article on

Hovik (00:00:35):

shadowdiplomat.com.

Hovik (00:00:38):

It's about this newly created agency in Armenia,

Hovik (00:00:42):

Foreign Intelligence Service,

Hovik (00:00:44):

and their report,

Hovik (00:00:45):

which was released,

Hovik (00:00:48):

I guess, last week or a few days ago.

Hovik (00:00:50):

So we want to discuss the agency itself as well as the points raised in the report.

Hovik (00:00:56):

For those that don't know,

Hovik (00:00:58):

Armenia's National Security Service was the main agency in charge of both

Hovik (00:01:06):

intelligence and counterintelligence,

Hovik (00:01:08):

both foreign and domestic,

Hovik (00:01:10):

but the Pashinyan regime has been gradually trying to split up the National

Hovik (00:01:16):

Security Service,

Hovik (00:01:17):

and hence we have the Foreign Intelligence Service headed by

Hovik (00:01:22):

this woman named Kristinne Grigoryan who,

Hovik (00:01:27):

according to our research,

Hovik (00:01:28):

has no experience anywhere in that field and she's the head of that service now.

Hovik (00:01:39):

She was the HR Ombudsman,

Hovik (00:01:40):

if you want to know her previous role,

Hovik (00:01:43):

and then unexpectedly resigned,

Hovik (00:01:44):

disappeared from public view,

Hovik (00:01:47):

And according to various reports,

Hovik (00:01:49):

she was visiting the UK at the time for an extended period of time.

Hovik (00:01:54):

I'm not sure how veritable those reports are,

Hovik (00:01:57):

but we know that the Pashinyan regime has been cultivating,

Hovik (00:02:02):

or maybe is being cultivated is the right word.

Hovik (00:02:06):

by various foreign intelligence agencies such as CIA or the MI6.

Hovik (00:02:16):

He has met and visited the head of MI6 and CIA several times.

Hovik (00:02:20):

But anyway, he's cultivating a relationship, not being cultivated.

Hovik (00:02:25):

So I don't want to be arrested for saying wrong things here.

Hovik (00:02:30):

Pashinyan has been cultivating a relationship with these agencies.

Hovik (00:02:33):

And so after Kristinne Grigoryan came back from her foreign trip,

Hovik (00:02:42):

she was the head of the newly created Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia.

Hovik (00:02:47):

Who is Kristinne Grigoryan, David?

Hovik (00:02:49):

And what can you tell us more about this agency that's created its mandate and its

Hovik (00:02:57):

responsibilities and what has it produced so far?

David (00:03:01):

Well, I haven't heard anything more than you've already described.

David (00:03:06):

What was really amazing was when it was announced,

David (00:03:11):

it was announced a couple of years ago,

David (00:03:12):

I believe,

David (00:03:14):

as an institution.

David (00:03:15):

And it was sort of shocking that a country or any established state would announce

David (00:03:23):

the fact that they are starting a foreign intelligence service that should have

David (00:03:28):

been there from day zero.

David (00:03:31):

I guess that was the first marketing flaw.

David (00:03:36):

The second marketing flaw was coming up with a report the way they did.

David (00:03:40):

Now,

David (00:03:42):

it may not make any difference who is the head of the FIS,

David (00:03:47):

Foreign Intelligence Service,

David (00:03:48):

because their product should speak for itself.

David (00:03:53):

And the product has spoken for itself, and it's spoken very poorly.

Hovik (00:03:59):

Well,

Hovik (00:04:00):

I think Asbed used the,

Hovik (00:04:03):

I think,

Hovik (00:04:05):

you know,

Hovik (00:04:06):

the phrase eighth grade research paper,

Hovik (00:04:08):

but maybe I'm wrong.

Hovik (00:04:10):

I'm misquoting him.

Hovik (00:04:11):

Well, Hovik, it would be an eighth grader using ChatGPT.

Hovik (00:04:15):

Yes.

Hovik (00:04:16):

Even worse.

Hovik (00:04:17):

But in reality,

Hovik (00:04:18):

before we go into the details of the report,

Hovik (00:04:21):

what is the need for Pashinyan to create a separate intelligence agency when an

Hovik (00:04:29):

existing one exists?

Hovik (00:04:31):

You can claim that,

Hovik (00:04:32):

well, it has KGB ties,

Hovik (00:04:33):

but the fact remains that the National Security Service has...

Hovik (00:04:38):

fulfilled every single one of Pashinyan's edicts all this time.

Hovik (00:04:42):

Of course,

Hovik (00:04:43):

Pashinyan has replaced six or seven heads,

Hovik (00:04:46):

but each one seems to be more loyal than the other.

Hovik (00:04:51):

The most recent one, I believe, I don't recall his name, but he's the one that has been really

Hovik (00:04:59):

in charge of going after the clergy and arresting those pesky clergy.

Hovik (00:05:05):

Forgive me for using those terms, but why is there even a need to separate those functions?

David (00:05:15):

Yeah,

David (00:05:16):

if you have an internal service,

David (00:05:19):

that would look something more like an FBI or something like this in the United

David (00:05:25):

States.

David (00:05:26):

A foreign service is radically different because you could have defense

David (00:05:31):

intelligence,

David (00:05:32):

you could have diplomatic intelligence,

David (00:05:35):

and you could have intelligence that comes from different countries.

David (00:05:39):

And it takes a different type of analysis for each one of these things.

David (00:05:43):

There's not much analysis if you're an internal police service.

David (00:05:48):

You basically follow orders.

David (00:05:51):

However,

David (00:05:52):

if you put together a foreign intelligence service,

David (00:05:54):

one of the reasons you would want a foreign intelligence service is to serve

David (00:05:59):

diplomacy or even better,

David (00:06:03):

serve the general strategy that the state has.

David (00:06:09):

So there's a big difference.

David (00:06:10):

The internal service may have information that would be associated with making the

David (00:06:17):

specific police group or whatever,

David (00:06:19):

you know,

David (00:06:20):

perform,

David (00:06:21):

you know, arrests or something like this.

David (00:06:22):

However, a defense intelligence organization has nothing to do with, you know, local operations.

David (00:06:30):

Now, the NSS sort of mix these together.

David (00:06:34):

And I really...

David (00:06:36):

suspect that there wasn't any external analysis taking place.

David (00:06:40):

If you just look at the number of police on the streets of Armenia,

David (00:06:43):

you can see that they have their hands filled just keeping these people from,

David (00:06:49):

I don't know.

Hovik (00:06:51):

I guess priorities, priorities, right?

Hovik (00:06:53):

I mean, you have to take care of the internal threat.

Asbed (00:06:56):

David, so this FISA report presents a bunch of risk assessments across various domains.

Asbed (00:07:02):

And

Asbed (00:07:03):

I found a lack of strategic goals,

Asbed (00:07:06):

a lack of vision for a national end state,

Asbed (00:07:09):

meaning to say that these were risks that were presented,

Asbed (00:07:12):

but to what end,

Asbed (00:07:14):

to reach what end state?

Asbed (00:07:16):

Additionally,

Asbed (00:07:17):

it presents them in some kind of a probabilistic scale that it defines,

Asbed (00:07:23):

and the table is on page four of this report,

Asbed (00:07:26):

and we'll link to it from our show notes.

Asbed (00:07:28):

That's podcasts.groong.org/episode-number.

Asbed (00:07:32):

But they start with things like almost certain,

Asbed (00:07:35):

which is more than 90% chance of happening down to remote chance,

Asbed (00:07:40):

which is less than 10%.

Asbed (00:07:42):

But first question,

Asbed (00:07:44):

if we don't know the end state that we are trying to reach,

Asbed (00:07:47):

how do we know the risks on the path to that end state?

David (00:07:51):

Well, we don't.

David (00:07:52):

That's the issue.

David (00:07:54):

When I saw the FIS report,

David (00:07:56):

it just reminded me of intelligence reports that you would probably,

David (00:08:00):

you know,

David (00:08:01):

public intelligence reports.

David (00:08:03):

And when there is an issue on the side, there's a percentage that's written.

David (00:08:09):

And that's the percentage of confidence or it's sort of like a weather report.

David (00:08:16):

You know, it's 90 percent chance of rain,

David (00:08:18):

but they don't really say where the rain is going to be.

David (00:08:21):

Is it 90 percent of the of the land or 90 percent of if I just look up?

David (00:08:26):

So they just give a number and that's what it looked like.

David (00:08:29):

It almost looked like it was just tacked on together just so they would have risk percentages.

David (00:08:37):

However, risk percentages relative to what?

David (00:08:41):

They aren't stated.

David (00:08:43):

And even worse, these risks aren't categorized.

David (00:08:47):

In other words, there's no relative scale given as to what approaches an Armenian red line.

David (00:08:54):

And of course, we weren't given any red lines.

David (00:08:58):

Sometimes red lines are not specified in such documents explicitly.

David (00:09:05):

They're written in a way where you just come up with your own thoughts on a

David (00:09:10):

particular item that the report even speaks about.

David (00:09:13):

Because if the report speaks about any kind of line or any kind of specific threat,

David (00:09:19):

that would be a red line.

David (00:09:21):

There is no difference between soft power and hard power threats.

David (00:09:28):

In fact, the word soft doesn't even doesn't even come up in the if you do a search on that,

David (00:09:33):

on the on the report,

David (00:09:35):

the term soft soft power doesn't exist.

David (00:09:38):

In its place, it's called hybrid, hybrid threat.

David (00:09:42):

Well, hybrid threat is a very broad category of this, that.

David (00:09:49):

Is it cyber?

David (00:09:51):

However, there are soft threats.

David (00:09:53):

For example,

David (00:09:56):

If a pressure is put on,

David (00:09:58):

let's say,

David (00:09:59):

the Armenian government to play down April 24th,

David (00:10:02):

the Genocide Memorial Day,

David (00:10:06):

well,

David (00:10:07):

what you may do,

David (00:10:08):

for example,

David (00:10:09):

is you may claim that you have to rebuild the Genocide Memorial.

David (00:10:15):

And in fact, it has been.

David (00:10:17):

Well, is that a soft threat?

David (00:10:21):

Yes, I believe it's a soft threat.

David (00:10:23):

What's the reaction?

David (00:10:25):

You succumb to the soft threat.

David (00:10:27):

Is that something that contradicts or eats into an Armenian national identity?

David (00:10:33):

It is.

David (00:10:34):

Well, that soft threat was an external threat.

David (00:10:38):

It was never categorized as a soft threat or hard threat or any threat, as an example.

David (00:10:44):

So we don't know.

David (00:10:45):

There's no relative scale given.

David (00:10:47):

Percentages don't mean anything.

David (00:10:50):

if it's not relative to some...

Asbed (00:10:53):

Yeah,

Asbed (00:10:54):

I was trying to understand exactly that because I was going to ask you a little bit

Asbed (00:10:59):

like this.

Asbed (00:11:00):

This was a little reminiscent to the color coding that we got in the United States

Asbed (00:11:03):

from after 9-11.

Asbed (00:11:05):

If you recall, there were red, orange, green, yellow, etc.

Asbed (00:11:10):

And nobody really knew what does it mean that we're in an orange state.

Asbed (00:11:13):

So what does it mean here?

Asbed (00:11:15):

Do you have any...

Asbed (00:11:16):

inkling as to how they're assigning these probability values how is something

Asbed (00:11:22):

deemed to be a high risk versus something that is a low risk do we understand it

Asbed (00:11:28):

maybe Kristinne Grigoryan does but i you know what do we what should we understand

David (00:11:33):

Well, that's part of the problem.

David (00:11:34):

And what's worse is,

David (00:11:38):

this has been read by forward intelligence services and diplomats,

David (00:11:43):

and they are asking the same questions.

David (00:11:45):

Actually,

David (00:11:46):

they are probably coming up with answers that we probably would not want to be

David (00:11:52):

associated with Armenia.

David (00:11:54):

I'm not flattering you.

David (00:11:56):

Correct. In other words, this is the second marketing error that we had.

David (00:12:00):

We come across as if we just did this because you're supposed to do it,

David (00:12:06):

whether there's one person or 10,

David (00:12:07):

I don't know,

David (00:12:09):

high school students involved.

David (00:12:10):

In fact, that's what it looks like.

David (00:12:12):

If you looked at a typical threat report from like any country in the world,

David (00:12:17):

there was pieces of it that you could pull out of theirs,

David (00:12:20):

change a few names and put it in ours.

David (00:12:24):

And that's

David (00:12:26):

That's really embarrassing.

David (00:12:28):

Whether Kristinne's involved or Christina or Mistina, it doesn't make any difference.

David (00:12:32):

This has come out of the state of Armenia, and that's what it's viewed as.

Hovik (00:12:37):

So the entire point of this report seems to have been to support government press

Hovik (00:12:43):

releases that,

Hovik (00:12:44):

hey, we are going towards peace.

Hovik (00:12:46):

At least that's my reading of it.

Hovik (00:12:48):

And I'm going to bring a specific example.

Hovik (00:12:51):

One of the points in the report was evaluate the risk of military escalation between

Hovik (00:12:59):

It analyzed different conflicts around Armenia,

Hovik (00:13:02):

and Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict was one of them,

Hovik (00:13:05):

of course.

Hovik (00:13:07):

And it says the military escalation is highly unlikely between Armenia and

Hovik (00:13:13):

Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:13:14):

and it's citing the August 8 White House agreements.

Hovik (00:13:19):

It's funny because further down in the same report,

Hovik (00:13:21):

we read that Azerbaijan has accelerated its war spending by 44% over three years.

Hovik (00:13:27):

The report also acknowledges that Azerbaijan has been pushing this narrative of

Hovik (00:13:34):

Western Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:13:36):

And it says something like, well, this is a risk for establishing peace.

Hovik (00:13:43):

And of course,

Hovik (00:13:44):

we are just watching as the region is basically anticipating a huge war between

Hovik (00:13:53):

Iran and the US and Israel.

Hovik (00:13:58):

But if you read this report,

Hovik (00:13:59):

it seems to reach this rosy conclusion that,

Hovik (00:14:02):

hey,

Hovik (00:14:03):

Armenia's threats,

Hovik (00:14:04):

security threats are minimal or moderate or tolerable.

Hovik (00:14:12):

What is your take on how they are modeling this?

Hovik (00:14:17):

I had a cognitive dissonance when I read the report because I know the facts.

Hovik (00:14:24):

They even state the facts in this report.

Hovik (00:14:28):

The report basically says, hey, we're going towards peace.

Hovik (00:14:31):

You don't have to worry about anything.

Hovik (00:14:35):

What is your take on some of these facts cited in the report?

David (00:14:40):

Well, it appears as though this report is really wishful thinking.

David (00:14:44):

We wish we could write a report like this.

David (00:14:47):

Unfortunately,

David (00:14:48):

what's happened now that the term Western Azerbaijan is stated in the way it does,

David (00:14:56):

that tells our enemies.

David (00:14:58):

And we do have enemies.

David (00:15:01):

They aren't competition,

David (00:15:02):

like as was stated on the news during the war,

David (00:15:06):

as if these aren't enemies.

David (00:15:08):

Our enemies are reading this.

David (00:15:10):

And we've already made a big deal about this.

David (00:15:13):

This is just, you know, basically, you know, a PSYOP, a very, very simple PSYOP.

David (00:15:18):

Oh, let's call southern Armenia, western Azerbaijan, and let the Armenians just get...

David (00:15:26):

all bothered about this.

David (00:15:27):

Now, whether this really is an issue, I don't know.

David (00:15:31):

I'm not particularly worried.

David (00:15:33):

I think this is nothing more than what Azerbaijan has done internally in keeping

David (00:15:40):

Armenians an enemy for the past 30 years.

David (00:15:44):

This really hasn't changed.

David (00:15:46):

And as much as Armenia wants to give the impression

David (00:15:49):

that it's for peace.

David (00:15:51):

And I mean, I personally would like to have peace, but not at any expense, obviously.

David (00:15:58):

The fact that there was basically no analysis of what might transpire on the

David (00:16:05):

Turkish border,

David (00:16:07):

on the Iranian border,

David (00:16:08):

on the Azerbaijani border.

David (00:16:10):

Or even the Georgian border.

David (00:16:11):

Even the Georgian border, for that matter, which is a whole other, that's a whole other issue.

David (00:16:17):

There is no risk there.

David (00:16:19):

There's no risk there.

David (00:16:20):

And what are the levels?

David (00:16:21):

What are the levels?

David (00:16:22):

If Iran just disintegrates, what will the pan-Turkists do?

David (00:16:32):

We have our own ideas,

David (00:16:34):

but this is a Foreign Intelligence Service document that really,

David (00:16:38):

oh,

David (00:16:40):

okay, something happens,

David (00:16:41):

this happens.

David (00:16:42):

It almost gives the impression that Armenians are being,

David (00:16:45):

or the Armenian government or whatever is being,

David (00:16:48):

You know played with like a like a puppet someplace Say all about it.

David (00:16:53):

Nothing's going to happen.

David (00:16:54):

Nothing. There's nothing that as what we alluded to earlier none of these issues Are more

David (00:17:00):

important than the other they just stated with the probability.

David (00:17:03):

Well, the probability is not a Level of importance.

David (00:17:07):

That's just a probability of it.

Hovik (00:17:09):

You know when when when the basic

Hovik (00:17:12):

Things like fail the smell test.

Hovik (00:17:14):

For me, that's enough to sort of reject the whole thing.

Hovik (00:17:17):

So one of the basic things in the doc,

Hovik (00:17:20):

it states in black and white that Armenia and Azerbaijan are going towards peace.

Hovik (00:17:25):

I mentioned some of the other facts, like, you know, the war spending and so forth.

Hovik (00:17:32):

But, you know, one thing that I don't know if the report...

Hovik (00:17:35):

covered is the internal situation in Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:17:41):

Do you believe that Aliyev is now preparing his people for peace with Armenians,

Hovik (00:17:48):

even if we, let's say, take their words at face value?

Hovik (00:17:52):

I mean,

Hovik (00:17:53):

from the sounds of it,

Hovik (00:17:54):

like when you're talking about Western Azerbaijan and whatnot,

Hovik (00:17:58):

that doesn't seem like it,

Hovik (00:17:59):

but maybe I'm wrong.

Hovik (00:18:01):

Is Aliyev maybe now a peacemaker?

David (00:18:03):

Aliyev could very easily have started this Western Azerbaijan story for his own

David (00:18:09):

people internally.

David (00:18:10):

Right.

David (00:18:11):

You see, this, you know, this is one of these things, you know, the war is over.

David (00:18:16):

Now we have to worry.

David (00:18:18):

Before then, Armenians were the enemy.

David (00:18:21):

I mean, the Armenians were the enemy from the root right to the top of the tree.

David (00:18:24):

In fact, Armenians weren't even considered native of the area.

David (00:18:29):

They came from India or who knows where they came from.

David (00:18:31):

You know, all these stories.

David (00:18:34):

So now that the war has been, Azerbaijan's conquest of Artsakh is finished, now what does he do?

David (00:18:47):

Because what would happen is now the people saying, OK, this is done.

David (00:18:51):

OK, how about internal problems that we have in Azerbaijan?

David (00:18:57):

Right.

David (00:18:58):

All the reporters that are in jail,

David (00:19:00):

you know,

David (00:19:01):

political opposition that is claimed to be under Russian pressure,

David (00:19:08):

so and so forth.

David (00:19:09):

It's not surprising that they would bring this up.

David (00:19:13):

Now,

David (00:19:14):

there's been no estimation as to,

David (00:19:16):

or actually there's been no analysis in this report,

David (00:19:19):

just like you said,

David (00:19:20):

as to where this comes from.

David (00:19:22):

Is this an issue that was created internally for Azerbaijan?

David (00:19:26):

Was it created just for Armenia or both?

David (00:19:30):

It keeps the people in Azerbaijan wondering what's going on,

David (00:19:33):

keeps Aliyev in a position of sort of like this military,

David (00:19:38):

like a military position,

David (00:19:40):

whatever.

David (00:19:41):

And it also keeps Armenians on their toes.

David (00:19:46):

And

David (00:19:47):

when we read on social media,

David (00:19:50):

the reaction Armenians have to things like,

David (00:19:52):

you know, Western,

David (00:19:53):

you know, Western Azerbaijan or so and so forth,

David (00:19:56):

whatever.

David (00:19:57):

Well, it looks like it may be working in probably both places, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:20:02):

Yeah.

David (00:20:03):

I think you mentioned earlier the,

David (00:20:05):

the occupied areas that Azerbaijan is still occupied on the order of,

David (00:20:10):

you know,

David (00:20:11):

200 square kilometers of internationally Armenian recognized land.

David (00:20:16):

Well,

David (00:20:18):

Is that not a threat?

David (00:20:20):

That's certainly a hard threat.

David (00:20:21):

That's not even a soft threat.

Hovik (00:20:25):

What gave more fuel to this thought is that when, for instance, J.D.

Hovik (00:20:30):

Vance is coming to the region apparently,

Hovik (00:20:34):

and in the announcement it says that he's going to be talking to Azerbaijan about

Hovik (00:20:41):

selling more weapons to Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:20:44):

But for Armenia, there's nothing in terms of military cooperation.

Hovik (00:20:47):

It's all about

Hovik (00:20:50):

commercial ties and nuclear stuff.

Hovik (00:20:54):

And it's also actually,

Hovik (00:20:56):

some would say,

Hovik (00:20:58):

intended to minimize the influence of the nuclear power station,

Hovik (00:21:04):

the Metsamor power station currently.

Hovik (00:21:07):

But that aside, let's say that there is peace with Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:21:12):

But all of these threats around us, doesn't Armenia still require

Hovik (00:21:19):

Doesn't Armenia still require standard military procurement?

Hovik (00:21:23):

And Pashinyan is basically saying that they have reduced the budget because

Hovik (00:21:29):

Azerbaijan is no longer a threat.

David (00:21:31):

Well, every country has a right to defend itself.

David (00:21:37):

And it should minimize, it should give the impression

David (00:21:40):

that it's backing off from that defense posture.

David (00:21:44):

Every state has that.

David (00:21:46):

If we watched, I don't know, India and Pakistan,

David (00:21:50):

they get into something that's almost like a hot war.

David (00:21:54):

And in that case, it would turn into a nuclear war very quickly.

David (00:21:57):

Well,

David (00:21:58):

if one side all of a sudden says,

David (00:21:59):

you know,

David (00:22:00):

we're going to turn off all our nuclear,

David (00:22:02):

you know, we're going to shut off our nuclear weapons and we're going to,

David (00:22:06):

you know, you know, put them in the back,

David (00:22:08):

whatever. And because we want peace.

David (00:22:11):

How would someone view a statement like that

David (00:22:16):

Well, that's how the world is viewing an Armenia that says, don't worry about us.

David (00:22:22):

We want peace.

David (00:22:24):

Well,

David (00:22:25):

I don't know if any peace that has ever been sustained when there isn't a threat of

David (00:22:30):

reprisal if the peace is violated.

David (00:22:35):

Peace is not one way.

David (00:22:37):

That is a threat against Armenia that Armenia actually accepts.

David (00:22:42):

It's an external threat.

Asbed (00:22:44):

It does seem to me like the government has essentially,

Asbed (00:22:47):

or rather this report essentially has put the absence of any kind of a war,

Asbed (00:22:53):

if nobody shoots at the borders for a year,

Asbed (00:22:56):

then that's going to be a low risk year for Armenia.

Asbed (00:23:00):

Essentially, it seems to me that they are assessing the risks to this government staying in

Asbed (00:23:05):

power because another war is going to be a detrimental one for them.

Asbed (00:23:11):

But speaking of this government,

Asbed (00:23:12):

David,

Asbed (00:23:13):

it seems like they are,

Asbed (00:23:14):

I'm not gonna say obsessed,

Asbed (00:23:16):

but preoccupied,

Asbed (00:23:18):

let's say, with hybrid threats.

Asbed (00:23:20):

These are threats like cybersecurity,

Asbed (00:23:22):

media integrity,

Asbed (00:23:23):

political integrity,

Asbed (00:23:24):

but everything that Armenia shows that a hybrid threat is used essentially as a

Asbed (00:23:30):

code word for keeping Russian influence down,

Asbed (00:23:32):

that's what it seems to me,

Asbed (00:23:34):

and increase the Western influence.

Asbed (00:23:36):

For example, the Armenian government solicited millions of euros

Asbed (00:23:40):

to fight Russian influence in the Armenian elections.

Asbed (00:23:45):

I trust that you see the absurdity of this.

Asbed (00:23:47):

Am I the only one thinking that these assessments are relying on fundamentally

Asbed (00:23:52):

political premises?

Asbed (00:23:53):

For example,

Asbed (00:23:54):

there are risks of Russian meddling in Armenian domestic affairs,

Asbed (00:23:58):

but there are no risks assessed to the West,

Asbed (00:24:01):

for example,

Asbed (00:24:02):

meddling.

Asbed (00:24:03):

Is this a political and subjective assessment by the report?

David (00:24:07):

Well, the report

David (00:24:09):

It's politics.

David (00:24:11):

It's simple politics.

Asbed (00:24:15):

While intelligence should be completely devoid of politics,

Asbed (00:24:18):

it should be an assessment along national security lines only.

David (00:24:24):

Yes, correct.

David (00:24:26):

Because if it's not,

David (00:24:27):

how can decision makers use that to assess a situation and put together a plan if

David (00:24:38):

it's not based on reality?

David (00:24:40):

If you're already talking about politics, you've already given the answer.

David (00:24:44):

You may not do anything or you may do something.

David (00:24:47):

I mean, the same thing happened in Moldova.

David (00:24:50):

I mean, there's almost no difference.

David (00:24:52):

Moldova was saying, oh,

David (00:24:53):

there's a Russian threat,

David (00:24:54):

there's a Russian threat,

David (00:24:55):

there's a Russian threat.

David (00:24:56):

The EU came in, basically told them what to do.

David (00:25:01):

They kicked out the party that was going to win.

David (00:25:06):

And the pro-Western party was installed.

David (00:25:10):

And everyone seemed to be happy.

David (00:25:12):

Well, if that ever happened in,

David (00:25:14):

well,

David (00:25:15):

if that ever happened in countries who claim they're really democracies,

David (00:25:18):

you know,

David (00:25:19):

there would be upheaval.

Hovik (00:25:20):

Yeah.

David (00:25:21):

Well, there wasn't an upheaval.

David (00:25:23):

In fact, the companies,

David (00:25:24):

the countries that force that are the ones that claim their democracies,

David (00:25:29):

the EU,

David (00:25:30):

in other words.

Asbed (00:25:31):

Yeah.

David (00:25:31):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:25:32):

Yeah, as a matter of fact,

Asbed (00:25:33):

Maya Sandu was in the news yesterday supporting Armenia and Georgia to,

Asbed (00:25:39):

you know,

Asbed (00:25:40):

find a democratic future.

Asbed (00:25:42):

It's basically saying, you know, kick the Russians out.

David (00:25:46):

Yeah, well, of course, you know, the term democratic doesn't mean what we think it is.

Hovik (00:25:50):

Right, right.

David (00:25:51):

Pro-Western and anti-Russian.

Hovik (00:25:54):

With the trip currently sort of on our minds and this impending visit by J.D.

Hovik (00:26:03):

Vance and I guess more agreements being signed and also the impending war on Iran,

Hovik (00:26:09):

it seems like we are bringing

Hovik (00:26:13):

Iran's enemies,

Hovik (00:26:14):

namely the United States,

Hovik (00:26:17):

to Armenia and handing them the keys to Armenia's south.

Hovik (00:26:23):

Of course, I'm not even talking about Russia,

Hovik (00:26:25):

but how does one objectively evaluate the risks from that move alone

Hovik (00:26:32):

in this FISA.

Hovik (00:26:33):

And I wonder whether this report talks about that,

Hovik (00:26:37):

because I believe that national security,

Hovik (00:26:40):

one of the core aspects of national security is for Armenia to be able to reach

Hovik (00:26:45):

north and south.

Hovik (00:26:47):

And my understanding of this trip is basically we are foregoing 100 years,

Hovik (00:26:56):

for 100 years, we're foregoing the ability to

Hovik (00:26:59):

communicate north and south in reality by building a railway to Iran or building a

Hovik (00:27:06):

railway,

Hovik (00:27:07):

I mean, there is a railway north,

Hovik (00:27:08):

but if we ever wanted to,

Hovik (00:27:12):

for instance, build a railway south,

Hovik (00:27:15):

even though it's expensive,

Hovik (00:27:17):

but it's not even in the sort of planning phase right now,

Hovik (00:27:23):

but if we ever wanted to do that sometime 20 years from now,

Hovik (00:27:28):

If the situation between the US and Iran is still inimical,

Hovik (00:27:32):

would the US allow even for that to happen?

David (00:27:35):

Well, if they run the border, probably not.

David (00:27:44):

What's interesting,

David (00:27:45):

Osvet said earlier,

David (00:27:46):

you know, just because there isn't shooting doesn't mean there's peace,

David (00:27:50):

or just because there's no war doesn't mean there's peace.

David (00:27:52):

There's no definition of what peace is.

David (00:27:55):

And even worse, there are no red lines associated with anything that you have mentioned.

David (00:28:05):

losing a border, even if it's run by the United States.

David (00:28:10):

And,

David (00:28:11):

of course,

David (00:28:12):

just because there was a Washington Declaration,

David (00:28:14):

all it is is a Washington Declaration.

David (00:28:16):

That's all it means.

Asbed (00:28:18):

It's not even just losing the border.

Asbed (00:28:20):

A possible potential breakup of Iran, which is the stated goal of Israel or regime change,

Asbed (00:28:30):

by the united states is almost an existential level issue for Armenia and i don't

Asbed (00:28:38):

see any kind of a risk ascribed to this and yet there is an armada us armada coming

Asbed (00:28:45):

close to Iran and a huge attack is planned at least that that's what they're saying

Asbed (00:28:50):

we're not sure if it's going to happen but that's the level at which we are talking

Asbed (00:28:54):

about so

Asbed (00:28:56):

Just any kind of Joe can look at this and say the risk is high and there's nothing

Asbed (00:29:01):

in the report about this.

David (00:29:02):

No, there isn't.

David (00:29:03):

You know,

David (00:29:04):

it almost seems as though the federal FAS was given a template and said,

David (00:29:10):

fill in these blanks.

David (00:29:13):

And that's what happened.

David (00:29:16):

The blanks were filled in.

David (00:29:17):

Does that mean that someone has told Armenia, don't worry about Iran.

David (00:29:22):

We'll take care of your border.

David (00:29:26):

If that's not a threat, I don't know what a threat is.

David (00:29:29):

Not only that,

David (00:29:30):

but I read that recently that Armenia wants to have the ability to limit imports

David (00:29:37):

through Georgia and have it go through Azerbaijan.

David (00:29:41):

Well, not only is the southern border an issue,

David (00:29:44):

but now is Armenia's northern border going to be an issue at the same time?

David (00:29:48):

We are actually causing that.

David (00:29:50):

We are causing that.

David (00:29:52):

In fact, we're sort of causing both of those, but the northern one particularly.

David (00:29:56):

So what kind of threat is that?

David (00:29:58):

Have we induced an external threat on ourselves?

David (00:30:04):

An economic threat, because that's an economic threat.

David (00:30:07):

Just because you have a threat doesn't mean it's a military threat.

David (00:30:11):

There are social,

David (00:30:12):

you know,

David (00:30:14):

there are soft,

David (00:30:15):

there are social,

David (00:30:16):

there's all sorts of threats,

David (00:30:17):

economic threats.

David (00:30:19):

And these weren't addressed.

David (00:30:20):

These weren't addressed.

David (00:30:21):

It's not surprising that,

David (00:30:23):

you know, people who have read this that I've spoken to claim this at a high school level.

Asbed (00:30:28):

Dave, all three of us have been technologists and are technologists on this.

Asbed (00:30:33):

And the Pashinyan government seems to think that IT and AI,

Asbed (00:30:38):

these great buzzwords,

Asbed (00:30:39):

are some sort of panacea and will turn Armenia into a different nation.

Asbed (00:30:45):

There are constant photo ops with IT moguls.

Asbed (00:30:48):

even in Davos,

Asbed (00:30:49):

for example,

Asbed (00:30:51):

data centers,

Asbed (00:30:52):

IT infrastructures,

Asbed (00:30:54):

nuclear power plants,

Asbed (00:30:56):

modular nuclear power plants,

Asbed (00:30:58):

all these things that are going around.

Asbed (00:31:00):

Tell us a little bit,

Asbed (00:31:01):

in a country with very weak IT policy,

Asbed (00:31:06):

privacy policy,

Asbed (00:31:07):

or at least the practices are almost non-existent,

Asbed (00:31:10):

is all IT good IT?

Asbed (00:31:13):

How do we...

Asbed (00:31:14):

Is there no risk attached to getting all this IT in the country and then suddenly

Asbed (00:31:19):

becoming a source of serious civic problems?

David (00:31:25):

Oh, sure there is.

David (00:31:26):

You know, for example,

David (00:31:27):

if you want to get on the metro,

David (00:31:29):

you have to use a special card or a credit card that goes through one particular

David (00:31:36):

brand of scanners,

David (00:31:39):

right?

David (00:31:42):

Well, if that's not a security risk, I don't know what is.

David (00:31:47):

Where does that information go?

David (00:31:51):

Oh,

David (00:31:52):

in fact, when you read the statements of the Armenian government,

David (00:31:57):

oh, there's no privacy issues involved here.

David (00:32:00):

Well, yes, there are privacy issues involved here.

David (00:32:02):

If they want to see who is going to a demonstration or some protest,

David (00:32:10):

they'll know the vast majority take,

David (00:32:13):

well,

David (00:32:14):

some people walk and they also have video cameras and things like this as well.

David (00:32:18):

But

David (00:32:21):

A lot of people take the metro.

David (00:32:25):

And there are also other IT-related initiatives that no guarantee is given as to

David (00:32:33):

personal security.

David (00:32:34):

I don't think personal security really exists in Armenia.

David (00:32:38):

Now, when you say IT, that doesn't appear to be an IT policy at all.

David (00:32:44):

The,

David (00:32:45):

you know,

David (00:32:46):

the minister of education or the minister of technology can come on and say all

David (00:32:49):

sorts of things.

David (00:32:50):

And it sounds good because, well, that's what they're supposed to do.

David (00:32:55):

You know, they're basically sound bites.

David (00:32:58):

For example, if there ever is going to be a half a billion dollar data center in Armenia,

David (00:33:03):

who is that going to serve?

David (00:33:05):

I don't think it's going to serve the average Armenian.

David (00:33:08):

I don't think.

David (00:33:09):

It's going to be collecting data from this part of the world.

David (00:33:13):

Otherwise,

David (00:33:14):

would you need,

David (00:33:16):

you know, now Armenia has licenses to get the most advanced NVIDIA GPUs in the country.

David (00:33:25):

That's assuming that this half billion dollar data center is going to come to fruition.

David (00:33:30):

Even at the universities,

David (00:33:33):

we hear IT, IT,

David (00:33:34):

IT, AI,

David (00:33:35):

AI,

David (00:33:36):

as if everything goes through a neural network and you get a magic answer and

David (00:33:39):

you're going to get a job.

David (00:33:41):

There doesn't seem to be any relationship to any goals,

David (00:33:46):

strategic goals or goals or any strategic methods to achieve those goals using any

David (00:33:53):

kind of technology.

David (00:33:55):

It doesn't.

David (00:33:56):

It seems that, well, people are talking about AI, people are talking about data centers now.

David (00:34:00):

Okay, that's fine.

David (00:34:02):

That's what we should do.

David (00:34:04):

If AI isn't an external threat to Armenia, I don't know what is.

David (00:34:09):

It could also be a panacea, although I doubt it.

David (00:34:11):

I think it's more of the former.

Asbed (00:34:13):

Well, I've been concerned about things like this, privacy issues, for example.

Asbed (00:34:19):

Most recently,

Asbed (00:34:20):

sadly, we had private videos leaked onto Telegram,

Asbed (00:34:24):

which the NSS latched onto and arrested people like Archbishop Ashod.

Asbed (00:34:31):

It's just unbelievable to not think about what this means.

Asbed (00:34:37):

What is the technology being used and what are the policies that are governing it

Asbed (00:34:43):

before people get arrested,

Asbed (00:34:45):

thrown in jail,

Asbed (00:34:46):

persecuted and prosecuted?

David (00:34:49):

I have not seen any strategic policies on technology.

David (00:34:56):

Sure, learn programming, get a degree and try to get a job.

David (00:35:00):

that's not much of a strategy.

David (00:35:02):

And that's sort of what the result of all we really hear.

David (00:35:08):

Oh, yes, there's going to be all this money being poured into Armenia.

David (00:35:12):

Well, there was a lot of money poured into the gold mines in Armenia,

David (00:35:16):

and that hasn't really done much for the average person.

David (00:35:19):

I have no idea what this data center is going to do.

David (00:35:22):

I could just imagine.

Hovik (00:35:25):

Well, I mean, we know from the...

Hovik (00:35:29):

We know from the announcements that Armenia could have the ability to use 25% of

Hovik (00:35:37):

the data center.

Hovik (00:35:39):

I mean, I have to... You mean for Armenian apps and Armenian services?

Hovik (00:35:45):

For whatever, you know, for whatever.

Hovik (00:35:48):

Now, whether they use that for good or bad, you know, remains to be seen.

Hovik (00:35:53):

Actually,

Hovik (00:35:54):

you know, I would, if I'm a betting man,

Hovik (00:35:55):

then I would bet you'd be used for bad things,

Hovik (00:35:58):

you know, knowing how this government is running.

Asbed (00:36:00):

More than good or bad, I meant to say.

Asbed (00:36:02):

Is it just going to be a Kolo site or is it going to be a site for services to

Asbed (00:36:07):

Armenian, let's say,

Asbed (00:36:08):

research,

Asbed (00:36:09):

services by the government,

Asbed (00:36:10):

whatever?

Hovik (00:36:12):

Yeah, I mean,

Hovik (00:36:13):

I think we need to know a little bit more about,

Hovik (00:36:15):

regardless,

Hovik (00:36:16):

I think that the point is that this AI stuff,

Hovik (00:36:19):

it seems to me more like a,

Hovik (00:36:21):

you know,

Hovik (00:36:22):

blowing,

Hovik (00:36:23):

they say like,

Hovik (00:36:24):

you know what I mean, blowing dust on your face or trying to sort of mask what's really,

Hovik (00:36:29):

you know,

Hovik (00:36:32):

it's a huge PR thing because if you,

Hovik (00:36:37):

you are able to improve the security of your country,

Hovik (00:36:41):

the national security,

Hovik (00:36:43):

the privacy of your citizens using existing technology.

Hovik (00:36:45):

You don't need a special NVIDIA chips to do that.

Hovik (00:36:49):

And if the current government is,

Hovik (00:36:53):

or if the regime is basically a bad custodian of data today,

Hovik (00:36:58):

there'll be a 10 times worse custodian of data tomorrow.

Hovik (00:37:02):

And what I'm really concerned about,

Hovik (00:37:03):

as you mentioned,

Hovik (00:37:04):

is all of those cameras that they're hooking up,

Hovik (00:37:09):

they're forcing businesses to install cameras,

Hovik (00:37:12):

private businesses to install cameras.

Hovik (00:37:17):

capture street cameras and process these on people.

Hovik (00:37:21):

And we've seen that this government basically has no inhibitions in terms of what

Hovik (00:37:26):

both legally and morally it can do.

Hovik (00:37:29):

So in the wrong hands, this is the wrong tool.

Hovik (00:37:31):

But in the right hands, it could be the right tool.

Hovik (00:37:34):

But as David says, there needs to be a strategy.

Hovik (00:37:37):

There needs to be a policy.

Hovik (00:37:39):

And the policy needs to be executed properly.

Hovik (00:37:42):

And we're seeing none of those.

Hovik (00:37:46):

I'm sure that actually I have to say something I was planning on closing here,

Hovik (00:37:51):

but I've had over the last 20 years that I've been in and out of Armenia,

Hovik (00:37:58):

I've met various different

Hovik (00:38:00):

ministers for it for so forth and every time I used to I no longer of course I will

Hovik (00:38:06):

not visit and meet with this... you know traders regime after 2020 but you know in

Hovik (00:38:13):

the past I have been consulted and I have also made business myself and every time

Hovik (00:38:18):

I've gone to the office of the consecutive it minister i have been shown a strategy

Hovik (00:38:23):

document saying

Hovik (00:38:24):

This is the strategy document that we're working on for security and privacy in

Hovik (00:38:29):

Armenia,

Hovik (00:38:32):

or for IT development.

Hovik (00:38:33):

And every time, it's a different document.

Hovik (00:38:36):

And I have never seen any of those documents come to fruition.

Hovik (00:38:40):

And I'm guessing that five years from now, you will go and visit the minister, hopefully.

Hovik (00:38:47):

Unless things change,

Hovik (00:38:50):

if this regime stays in power,

Hovik (00:38:51):

five years from now you're going to go and they're going to promise you another

Hovik (00:38:54):

strategy document without really understanding what a strategy document is and not

Hovik (00:38:59):

even saying implementing it or trying to put a policy around that.

David (00:39:05):

Yeah, Asped,

David (00:39:07):

just to bring this item to a close perhaps,

David (00:39:12):

the Armenian government had to take over the electric grid by putting the person

David (00:39:20):

who was in charge of it

David (00:39:23):

who ran it very well they had to arrest him um and nationalize it if that's the

David (00:39:31):

first step in putting together a data center that's supposed to be good for the

David (00:39:34):

people just so you don't have a Russian dual citizen or citizen involved probably

David (00:39:41):

tells you what the government will probably allow that data center to um to do just

David (00:39:48):

to stay

David (00:39:50):

best friends with those that don't like Russian influence in Armenia.

Asbed (00:39:55):

Well said.

Asbed (00:39:56):

Well said.

Asbed (00:39:57):

Answers the question whether this whole report has a political tinge to it or is it

Asbed (00:40:02):

just a national security assessment.

Hovik (00:40:07):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:40:08):

Expect to be called a hybrid threat.

Hovik (00:40:10):

If it is, then we're really doomed.

Hovik (00:40:15):

If I ever played a musical instrument and I formed a band, I would call it the Hybrid Threats.

Hovik (00:40:20):

I don't know if that name was ever taken, but I got dibs on it.

Hovik (00:40:26):

But anyway.

Hovik (00:40:27):

All right. Well, thank you for joining us, David, today.

Hovik (00:40:31):

This was an interesting discussion.

Hovik (00:40:33):

And I hope you come back soon and talk to us about more positive things.

David (00:40:40):

Sure. It was my pleasure, guys.

David (00:40:41):

Thank you for inviting me.

Hovik (00:40:43):

Thank you, David.

Hovik (00:40:44):

Bye-bye.

Asbed (00:40:45):

That's our show today.

Asbed (00:40:46):

The episode was recorded on January 28th, 2026.

Asbed (00:40:49):

We've been talking with Mr.

Asbed (00:40:52):

David Davidian,

Asbed (00:40:53):

who is a lecturer at the American University of Armenia.

Asbed (00:40:56):

He has spent over a decade in technical intelligence analysis at major high technology firms.

Asbed (00:41:02):

He resides in Yerevan, Armenia.

Asbed (00:41:04):

A compendium of his articles can be found on shadowdiplomat.com.

Asbed (00:41:09):

Check him out through our show notes, podcasts.groong.org/episode-number.

Hovik (00:41:15):

All right, folks.

Hovik (00:41:16):

Thanks for staying with us and like, comment and share.

Hovik (00:41:20):

I want to give our viewers a sneak peek at what we're trying to do.

Hovik (00:41:26):

So,

Hovik (00:41:27):

you know, we are constantly talking about politics,

Hovik (00:41:30):

but we have been talking to a historian and we have decided that

Hovik (00:41:38):

we're going to be piloting some podcasts specifically in terms of history.

Hovik (00:41:45):

It's not the first time we did it, but maybe it could be its own series.

Hovik (00:41:50):

So we are working on our first episode and

Hovik (00:41:53):

given that the,

Hovik (00:41:54):

you know,

Hovik (00:41:55):

we're all excited about this,

Hovik (00:41:56):

including the historian friend we will introduce next week,

Hovik (00:42:00):

you know,

Hovik (00:42:02):

it seems like we can do more,

Hovik (00:42:03):

we can diversify into historical episodes in the future.

Hovik (00:42:07):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:42:08):

It's not my... Just like a little bit like the critical corner, which is sort of in flight.

Asbed (00:42:15):

You know,

Asbed (00:42:16):

we've done a couple of episodes in the last month,

Asbed (00:42:18):

but we will have a history playlist of some sort.

Asbed (00:42:23):

We won't give you too much information so that it's a little bit of a pleasant

Asbed (00:42:27):

surprise when it comes along.

Hovik (00:42:29):

Yeah, and of course, we're now talking about which episode in Armenian history to talk about.

Hovik (00:42:36):

And it's funny because when you're talking about, let's say, U.S.

Hovik (00:42:39):

history, you could probably do several episodes, right, on...

Hovik (00:42:44):

a decade in the U.S.

Hovik (00:42:46):

And we're forced to cover thousands of years of history.

Hovik (00:42:50):

And, you know, we're talking about, like, different options.

Hovik (00:42:52):

We're talking about Mesrop Mashtots.

Hovik (00:42:54):

We're talking about mostly medieval Armenian history for now,

Hovik (00:42:57):

like Vartanans battles and so forth.

Hovik (00:43:01):

We're trying to figure out which topic to start with first.

Hovik (00:43:04):

And once we do,

Hovik (00:43:05):

though, like,

Hovik (00:43:06):

I mean, even the topic of Vartanants could be a topic of 10 episodes,

Hovik (00:43:10):

in my opinion,

Hovik (00:43:11):

not just one.

Hovik (00:43:12):

So...

Hovik (00:43:13):

Anyway, some things you can maybe look forward to and we'll see how it comes along.

Hovik (00:43:19):

Yep, fun stuff.

Asbed (00:43:20):

But once again, share our shows.

Asbed (00:43:23):

If you are listening all the way to this point in the show,

Asbed (00:43:28):

that means you are a hardcore listener.

Asbed (00:43:29):

You love our material.

Asbed (00:43:31):

That's why you're listening all the way to the end.

Asbed (00:43:34):

Your share of helping us can be to share it with your friends and tell them,

Asbed (00:43:39):

hey, this is something that you want to listen to because that helps us a lot.

Asbed (00:43:43):

Thank you so much.

Asbed (00:43:44):

I'm Asbed Bedrossian in Los Angeles.

Hovik (00:43:48):

And I'm Hovik Manucharyan in Occupied Yerevan.

Asbed (00:43:51):

We'll talk to you soon, folks.

Asbed (00:43:53):

Bye-bye.

Hovik (00:43:53):

Take care.

Hovik (00:43:54):

Bye.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

David Davidian

Guest

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