Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

JD Vance in Armenia and Azerbaijan | Ep 517, Feb 15, 2026

• Armenian News Network / Groong • Episode 517

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Conversations on Groong - Feb 15, 2026

Topics

  • Vance visit, protocol and optics
  • Tsitsernakaberd tweet, “autocorrect diplomacy”
  • TRIPP corridor stake and sovereignty risks
  • Nuclear SMR deal, costs and dependency
  • Firebird AI project, power and value
  • Drones, church silence, Baku charter and prisoners

Hosts

Episode 517 | Recorded: February 13, 2026

SHOW NOTES: https://podcasts.groong.org/517

VIDEO: https://youtu.be/4FEVG-lJVkE

#Groong #Armenia #JDVance #Tsitsernakaberd #TRIPP



Subscribe and follow us everywhere you are: linktr.ee/groong

Asbed (00:00:06):

Hello everyone and welcome to Hovik and me just yakking on Groong.

Asbed (00:00:11):

Today, we're going to be dissecting what is arguably the most significant US diplomatic

Asbed (00:00:16):

visit to the South Caucasus in the history of Armenia and Azerbaijan,

Asbed (00:00:19):

maybe not so much for Georgia.

Asbed (00:00:21):

Vice President J.D.

Asbed (00:00:22):

Vance's visit to Yerevan in Baku wasn't only a photo op,

Asbed (00:00:27):

actually, it really was a huge photo op,

Asbed (00:00:30):

but it was also a massive military-grade operation over Yerevan's skies,

Asbed (00:00:35):

and nearly a couple of dozen giant military transports

Asbed (00:00:38):

preceded the vice president who came from Milan, Italy.

Asbed (00:00:43):

It was a huge event.

Asbed (00:00:44):

Hovik, where do you want to start this?

Hovik (00:00:47):

All right. Well, let's start with a quick request to our wonderful listeners.

Hovik (00:00:54):

I also want to give a quick introduction in case you found us by searching J.D.

Hovik (00:01:00):

Vance, Armenia, the Caucasus.

Hovik (00:01:02):

We are the Armenian news network group,

Hovik (00:01:05):

just two guys doing a podcast trying to cover this under-covered region,

Hovik (00:01:11):

you know, just by ourselves.

Hovik (00:01:13):

But so make sure that you're subscribed.

Hovik (00:01:15):

And before we continue, that's the most important part.

Asbed (00:01:18):

Okay, and if you want to support us, you can support us at podcasts.groong.org/donate.

Asbed (00:01:25):

And we'd love to have you among our sustaining supporters.

Asbed (00:01:28):

But if you can't do that, you can just basically comment and share and like our shows.

Asbed (00:01:34):

That helps us a lot.

Asbed (00:01:36):

All right, Hovik, where do you want to begin?

Hovik (00:01:39):

So I will just like to paint a high level description of what happened.

Hovik (00:01:43):

Essentially, Vance was in Milan for the Winter Olympics and opening of those events.

Hovik (00:01:52):

He spent four days there and it was,

Hovik (00:01:57):

you know, from a PR perspective,

Hovik (00:01:58):

I guess it was not that great.

Hovik (00:02:00):

He was booed there and everything.

Hovik (00:02:02):

um so the visit to armenia immediately followed that and then from armenia he

Hovik (00:02:07):

visited Azerbaijan and i mean i haven't paid attention to visits by presidents or

Hovik (00:02:15):

vice presidents but just the spectacle of seeing all those like 20 plus military

Hovik (00:02:20):

transports, you know, flying to Armenia and Azerbaijan was just eye opening for me.

Hovik (00:02:29):

Maybe it happens regularly,

Hovik (00:02:32):

but that was,

Hovik (00:02:33):

it seemed more like a military maneuver than anything else.

Hovik (00:02:38):

And as we said,

Hovik (00:02:39):

the trip is historic for Armenia because no vice president,

Hovik (00:02:46):

let alone a president of the United States,

Hovik (00:02:47):

has ever visited Armenia.

Hovik (00:02:51):

Although for Georgia, we can say that, you know,

Hovik (00:02:54):

There has been ample precedent.

Hovik (00:02:56):

There was Mike Pence,

Hovik (00:02:57):

who visited 2017, Joe Biden in 2009,

Hovik (00:03:01):

and Dick Cheney in 2008,

Hovik (00:03:04):

after the short war that Saakashvili instigated against Russia.

Hovik (00:03:12):

And also George W. Bush visited Armenia's neighbors, Georgia and Azerbaijan, in 2005.

Hovik (00:03:20):

And prior to this, the best Armenia had to settle for was Hillary Clinton's visit as Secretary of

Hovik (00:03:26):

State,

Hovik (00:03:28):

I believe twice in the early 2010s.

Hovik (00:03:30):

And I believe that was in the context of the Turkish Armenian negotiations,

Hovik (00:03:35):

which she was pushing.

Hovik (00:03:38):

or strongly at the time.

Asbed (00:03:40):

Yeah, those were not giant military-grade visits, though.

Asbed (00:03:43):

They were almost unofficial visits.

Hovik (00:03:46):

It was a private visit or a working visit.

Hovik (00:03:48):

I don't know how you classify that.

Hovik (00:03:50):

And I think that the biggest elephant in the room,

Hovik (00:03:52):

I think one that was avoided in the media,

Hovik (00:03:55):

was this impending attack against Iran.

Hovik (00:03:58):

Basically, Vance came within a few hundred kilometers of Iran's border.

Hovik (00:04:03):

And I think it's important to mention that even though all the,

Hovik (00:04:07):

you know,

Hovik (00:04:08):

Vance made,

Hovik (00:04:10):

you know, deliberately avoided the topic and neither did Aliev or Pashinyan want to entertain

Hovik (00:04:16):

that topic.

Hovik (00:04:18):

Anyway, the police presence in the city when he was visiting was unprecedented as well.

Hovik (00:04:27):

I don't believe the city has seen so much police presence,

Hovik (00:04:31):

even in the worst days of the upheaval events.

Hovik (00:04:36):

in previous times in history.

Hovik (00:04:38):

So we're going to cover the following topics.

Hovik (00:04:40):

In Armenia,

Hovik (00:04:42):

Vance will cover the controversy around his visit to the Armenian Genocide

Hovik (00:04:46):

Memorial,

Hovik (00:04:48):

which has no shortage of intrigue.

Hovik (00:04:53):

We'll cover the trip,

Hovik (00:04:54):

even though there's nothing new on that TRIPP,

Hovik (00:04:57):

Trump's route of international peace and prosperity,

Hovik (00:05:03):

otherwise known as the Zangezur Corridor.

Hovik (00:05:05):

We'll also cover the issue of small nuclear reactors,

Hovik (00:05:10):

which Pashinyan is pitching and Vance is eager to sell to Armenia.

Hovik (00:05:17):

And we'll also cover some other issues like the Firebird AI data center.

Hovik (00:05:25):

We'll cover the silences,

Hovik (00:05:28):

the things that weren't talked about,

Hovik (00:05:30):

which is Armenia's attack against the church.

Hovik (00:05:33):

And we'll also cover this purchase of drones by Armenia, of U.S.

Hovik (00:05:38):

military drones,

Hovik (00:05:39):

and essentially the first foreign military sale to Armenia by the United States,

Hovik (00:05:44):

which is $11 million worth of drones.

Hovik (00:05:47):

And we'll cover some aspects, whatever is known from the public press about that.

Asbed (00:05:54):

Let's start with the Genocide Museum visit, Hovik.

Asbed (00:05:59):

So Vance visited the Genocide Memorial and made a tweet.

Asbed (00:06:04):

about it using the phrase Armenian genocide twice.

Asbed (00:06:09):

That's good.

Asbed (00:06:10):

Under Biden,

Asbed (00:06:11):

the executive and the legislative branches of the United States actually fully

Asbed (00:06:16):

recognized the Armenian genocide.

Asbed (00:06:18):

So it's basically U.S.

Asbed (00:06:19):

law and policy.

Hovik (00:06:20):

Yeah, to me, it was the only silver lining of the trip.

Hovik (00:06:25):

But obviously, as you may know, there is a but.

Asbed (00:06:29):

There's a but, unfortunately, because someone and who might that be?

Asbed (00:06:35):

It could be some neighbor,

Asbed (00:06:36):

for example,

Asbed (00:06:37):

Turkey or Erdogan,

Asbed (00:06:39):

Tom Barrack,

Asbed (00:06:40):

whoever,

Asbed (00:06:41):

told Vance,

Asbed (00:06:42):

what is this all about?

Asbed (00:06:43):

J.D.

Asbed (00:06:44):

Vance basically took it back.

Asbed (00:06:46):

A lot of people are calling it autocorrect diplomacy.

Asbed (00:06:50):

As you know, on Twitter, you can't edit your tweets after about an hour or so.

Asbed (00:06:56):

So he took it down.

Asbed (00:06:57):

Somebody in his office took those things down,

Asbed (00:07:00):

and they retweeted it with some kind of a pablumy statement saying,

Asbed (00:07:04):

Vance and his wife lay flowers at the eternal flame of the Medz Yeghern or something

Asbed (00:07:10):

like that.

Asbed (00:07:11):

And essentially, so it was taken down.

Asbed (00:07:14):

And just like any kind of a crime where the cover-up is worse than the crime,

Asbed (00:07:18):

this made the issue much,

Asbed (00:07:20):

much worse internationally.

Asbed (00:07:21):

It was a huge guff on the part of the vice president's office.

Asbed (00:07:25):

Everybody ended up talking about that rather than him honoring the dead or anything like that.

Asbed (00:07:31):

What do you think about this visit?

Asbed (00:07:34):

You know, one of the aspects I want to mention,

Asbed (00:07:36):

Jovic, is that Trump's administration,

Asbed (00:07:39):

or Trump himself,

Asbed (00:07:40):

is absolutely allergic about anything that Joe Biden has done.

Asbed (00:07:44):

So anything that he can do immediately to...

Asbed (00:07:48):

remove from the agenda of his administration.

Asbed (00:07:52):

Among them, maybe the genocide recognition, everything, he will do that.

Asbed (00:07:55):

But I don't think it's at the level of just anti-Biden-ness.

Asbed (00:07:58):

There really is more of a policy issue on the part of this administration.

Asbed (00:08:04):

What do you think?

Hovik (00:08:05):

I'm not sure. I think that, yes, Trump is more adventurous in terms of things that he could say and do.

Hovik (00:08:12):

I think regardless of that, he and his people around him actually have discovered

Hovik (00:08:20):

the red lines of any administration.

Hovik (00:08:23):

And that is a gag order imposed on the United States by Turkey,

Hovik (00:08:26):

which is talk about the Armenian genocide.

Hovik (00:08:28):

It's crazy that Trump can attack foreign countries,

Hovik (00:08:32):

kidnap their presidents without a single like,

Hovik (00:08:35):

you know, repercussion.

Hovik (00:08:37):

As soon as you touch interests of Turkey,

Hovik (00:08:41):

and what I presume is also Israel,

Hovik (00:08:45):

and I believe the Israeli lobby was also involved in this reversal,

Hovik (00:08:50):

then you get told what's up.

Hovik (00:08:54):

And you quickly try to undo whatever you did.

Hovik (00:08:59):

And what was amazing to me is the international reaction.

Hovik (00:09:03):

I mean,

Hovik (00:09:04):

essentially the media coverage of Vance's deletion of that tweet overshadowed

Hovik (00:09:11):

anything that he did and overshadowed all the other news,

Hovik (00:09:15):

but perhaps like I think,

Hovik (00:09:17):

you know,

Hovik (00:09:18):

U.S.

Hovik (00:09:19):

couldn't care.

Hovik (00:09:20):

I think that was just more readable content.

Hovik (00:09:22):

And OK, another thing that Vance did and another embarrassment for Vance,

Hovik (00:09:26):

I think that was the motivation for many of these media covering this event.

Asbed (00:09:32):

The most ridiculous thing is that U.S.

Asbed (00:09:35):

law and policy and foreign policy is that the Armenian genocide was a genocide.

Asbed (00:09:41):

And just like everything else that has to do with Trump, these are executive orders.

Asbed (00:09:47):

These are executive policies that are going to go away with him.

Asbed (00:09:50):

He has not gone to Congress and said, let's rescind this vote.

Asbed (00:09:54):

Let's turn the policy around.

Asbed (00:09:56):

And the Armenian genocide was not a genocide.

Asbed (00:09:59):

No, he's just practicing his own thing.

Asbed (00:10:01):

I mean, what can we say about this?

Asbed (00:10:03):

The Ottoman Empire tried to erase the Armenian people physically.

Asbed (00:10:07):

Modern politicians

Asbed (00:10:09):

erase them digitally.

Asbed (00:10:11):

And this is what's going on right now on the part of J.D.

Asbed (00:10:14):

Vance. And you know what, Hovik, I'm going to go a step further on this one.

Asbed (00:10:18):

If J.D.

Asbed (00:10:19):

Vance can go to Yerevan and endorse Pashinyan in the Armenian elections in June,

Asbed (00:10:25):

I have my freedom of expression to say that any self-respecting Armenian in three

Asbed (00:10:29):

years cannot give J.D.

Asbed (00:10:31):

Vance or anyone on this administration their vote.

Asbed (00:10:34):

OK, this is a good time to say that because I don't know who's going to be the

Asbed (00:10:37):

Democratic candidate.

Asbed (00:10:38):

I don't know if there's going to be a third candidate.

Asbed (00:10:40):

And frankly, I don't care.

Asbed (00:10:42):

I'm just saying kick these guys to the curb because by changing them,

Asbed (00:10:45):

you tell them this this kind of shit cannot be pulled on Armenian Americans and

Hovik (00:10:49):

Armenians everywhere around the world.

Hovik (00:10:51):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:10:52):

And before you accuse us of being partisan, it's not partisan.

Asbed (00:10:56):

Like I said, I don't even know who the other candidates are and I don't care.

Asbed (00:11:00):

Just kick these guys to the curb.

Hovik (00:11:02):

Yeah, definitely.

Hovik (00:11:04):

I mean,

Hovik (00:11:05):

I just want to remind people,

Hovik (00:11:06):

like, I was on Twitter even before these elections,

Hovik (00:11:08):

where I said I would,

Hovik (00:11:10):

in my conscience,

Hovik (00:11:11):

my conscience would not allow me to vote neither for Trump or Biden or his

Hovik (00:11:16):

replacement.

Hovik (00:11:17):

And I'm sort of proven right in this because...

Hovik (00:11:22):

as we saw you know essentially this administration is continuing maybe the best

Hovik (00:11:27):

recourse you might have is well what did the priors do before what did Biden do for

Hovik (00:11:32):

armenia but that's not an argument i think that's just what about ism and we can

Hovik (00:11:36):

expect more

Asbed (00:11:38):

I think there's one more aspect before we move on to the next topic.

Asbed (00:11:41):

I want to mention that as J.D.

Asbed (00:11:44):

Vance and his wife visited the genocide monument, there were no Armenian officials with him.

Asbed (00:11:51):

Pashinyan didn't go.

Asbed (00:11:53):

The foreign minister didn't go.

Asbed (00:11:55):

Nobody was there with him.

Asbed (00:11:56):

It's just kind of spooky.

Asbed (00:11:59):

What are your thoughts about that?

Hovik (00:12:00):

This is kind of weird.

Hovik (00:12:01):

You have to understand that prior to these visits, the teams from both sides

Hovik (00:12:06):

plan out in detail everything that happens and for all the protocol visits there is

Hovik (00:12:11):

there are the flags there is you know equal representation from both sides if it's

Hovik (00:12:16):

the president then it's the prime minister uh if it's the vice president then it

Hovik (00:12:20):

might be the prime minister it might be a low-ranking dignitary but prior visits by

Hovik (00:12:26):

senior officials to Tstsernakabert

Hovik (00:12:30):

were accompanied by the counterpart.

Hovik (00:12:32):

So in the case of Nancy Pelosi,

Hovik (00:12:33):

for instance,

Hovik (00:12:34):

when she visited,

Hovik (00:12:35):

I forget one exactly,

Hovik (00:12:37):

her counterpart,

Hovik (00:12:38):

Alain Simonian,

Hovik (00:12:39):

also accompanied her.

Hovik (00:12:42):

Now, if they're absent,

Hovik (00:12:43):

that means then this could only be seen as a personal activity or maybe even an

Hovik (00:12:49):

unofficial part of the visit.

Hovik (00:12:51):

And of course, this happens from time to time.

Hovik (00:12:53):

So...

Hovik (00:12:56):

Why?

Hovik (00:12:57):

Well, it's obvious.

Hovik (00:12:58):

I think if you listen to the show,

Hovik (00:13:00):

then you know that Pashinyan is basically doing everything he can to get on the

Hovik (00:13:06):

good graces of his masters in Baku and Ankara.

Hovik (00:13:10):

And I will not shy away from saying that explicitly.

Hovik (00:13:13):

He is doing everything to comply with the wishes of Erdogan and Aliyev.

Hovik (00:13:18):

And obviously, if the trip didn't feature a visit,

Hovik (00:13:24):

by Vance to the Armenian Genocide Memorial,

Hovik (00:13:26):

which is actually still part of the Armenian diplomatic protocol.

Hovik (00:13:29):

Any official visit must include a visit to Tsitsernakabert.

Hovik (00:13:33):

I think that would raise more questions than it answers.

Hovik (00:13:35):

So they thought this was the second best option,

Hovik (00:13:38):

which is Vance visiting Tsitsernakabert privately.

Hovik (00:13:42):

If Pashinyan was there, imagine the ruckus that Erdogan and Aliyev would raise.

Hovik (00:13:48):

So I think it's pretty self-explanatory.

Hovik (00:13:51):

So the other overarching issue that we constantly talk about is this Trump route.

Hovik (00:13:58):

There weren't many new announcements about the TRIPP specifically.

Hovik (00:14:02):

The fact that the U.S.

Hovik (00:14:04):

is visiting, it means that the TRIPP is a core part of it.

Hovik (00:14:08):

And Vance praised the TRIPP as creating prosperity.

Hovik (00:14:13):

I guess prosperity for whom that's a big question.

Hovik (00:14:16):

But as a reminder to our listeners, Armenia has agreed to give a majority stake

Hovik (00:14:25):

76% for 49 years or 50 years,

Hovik (00:14:29):

and 51% for the remaining period for almost a century,

Hovik (00:14:34):

essentially. So half of the century, it will be 76% and the other half, 51%, all like a majority.

Hovik (00:14:42):

In a region where, you know, geopolitical earthquakes happen almost, you know, yearly.

Hovik (00:14:48):

And, you know, so this is a century long project.

Hovik (00:14:53):

There are a lot of questions that remain to be answered.

Hovik (00:14:57):

And Azerbaijan continues to claim that its cargo,

Hovik (00:15:01):

whether people or cargo can travel unimpeded without seeing a single Armenian and

Hovik (00:15:08):

without even being checked.

Hovik (00:15:09):

That's what the Azerbaijanis claim that they will be able to do.

Hovik (00:15:12):

That includes military cargo.

Hovik (00:15:13):

I mean, Azerbaijan wants its military cargo to traverse Armenia back and forth to

Hovik (00:15:19):

Nakhijevan without ever being checked by our Armenians.

Hovik (00:15:23):

So that's a question that Pashinyan is avoiding very carefully.

Hovik (00:15:31):

And the other question that remains to be answered is how Russia and Iran are going

Hovik (00:15:35):

to react to this move,

Hovik (00:15:36):

because it's obviously an effort to isolate them and to break the link,

Hovik (00:15:41):

the north-south communication,

Hovik (00:15:43):

to weaken the north-south communication link that is part of BRICS,

Hovik (00:15:46):

that is part of this multipolar new world.

Hovik (00:15:48):

And then the other major questions that are important for Armenia is Armenians

Hovik (00:15:51):

think of this as a US and Armenia project.

Hovik (00:15:54):

But in reality,

Hovik (00:15:55):

the US can simply one day get up and say,

Hovik (00:16:00):

I'm leaving bye bye,

Hovik (00:16:01):

it can sell its stake.

Hovik (00:16:04):

And Armenia, of course, says that it has veto power to whom it can sell.

Hovik (00:16:10):

But the obvious beneficiaries from this project are Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:16:16):

And only someone like Turkey, I think, would be interested in purchasing

Hovik (00:16:21):

the u.s shares if the u.s ever left because it's a whole geopolitical mess it's

Hovik (00:16:26):

it's very risky in my opinion to to outside investors can armenia even muster to

Hovik (00:16:32):

stop it because as soon as it does it tries to do anything if it's the trump

Hovik (00:16:37):

administration or any other future administration then they will be able to put

Hovik (00:16:42):

coercive pressure against the army I mean maybe on paper armenia has the right to

Hovik (00:16:47):

veto or to prove any uh sale of us of the us stake but it just remains on paper

Hovik (00:16:56):

because um

Hovik (00:16:58):

If you compare the power of the United States and power of Armenia,

Hovik (00:17:01):

that's all that matters in terms of...

Asbed (00:17:02):

And the power of Turkey and even the power of Azerbaijan at this point.

Hovik (00:17:06):

It's like Armenia kind of doesn't really exist.

Hovik (00:17:09):

Yeah, we saw how Turkey is able to edit

Hovik (00:17:13):

Vance's twitter account right so with such huge like Israel turkey interests in

Hovik (00:17:19):

the region tell me that a future Armenian leader is able to get out of this even

Hovik (00:17:25):

I don't even I don't know even if the most uh patriotic leader can do this but

Hovik (00:17:29):

definitely not pushing you um anything else you want to say

Asbed (00:17:33):

Yeah, Hovik, I'm kind of interested in knowing the benefits of TRIPP to the economy of Armenia.

Asbed (00:17:38):

I'm sure there's going to be some kind of benefit for opening up east-west traffic

Asbed (00:17:44):

commerce between all of these countries.

Asbed (00:17:47):

Hopefully, there will be north-south as well, and maybe southeast to northwest, whatever.

Asbed (00:17:54):

But the question is, what's going to be the benefit, and is everybody going to play...

Asbed (00:18:00):

Nice, let's say,

Asbed (00:18:01):

in all this, because countries like Turkey are already planning to bypass Armenia.

Asbed (00:18:06):

So they don't want to pass through Armenia.

Asbed (00:18:07):

They want to pass through the Zangezur corridor and go to Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:18:11):

So that's because the promise of the whole TRIPP is that they're not going to see any Armenians.

Asbed (00:18:18):

They're probably not going to pay any kind of tariff or any kind of benefit.

Asbed (00:18:22):

So what's going to be the benefit of TRIPP to Armenia?

Hovik (00:18:26):

Do we know?

Hovik (00:18:28):

Armenia has no trade with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Hovik (00:18:30):

The number one trade partner of Armenia is Russia to the north.

Hovik (00:18:34):

And number true partner for Armenia from a perspective of transit and

Hovik (00:18:39):

communications is Iran,

Hovik (00:18:40):

like 20% or 30% of Armenian cargo goes through Iran.

Hovik (00:18:45):

So Armenia will not see any benefit to this.

Hovik (00:18:47):

And the way Pashinyan sold this to Armenians over the last five years or so,

Hovik (00:18:55):

or two years or three years was that

Hovik (00:18:58):

By building this corridor,

Hovik (00:19:01):

Armenia would be able to also export items through rail to Iran or connect to

Hovik (00:19:10):

Russia. But none of those are on the table.

Hovik (00:19:12):

The only component that is currently part of TRIPP is this narrow corridor in the south.

Hovik (00:19:19):

What would make this sort of

Hovik (00:19:21):

uh beneficial for armenia is if the TRIPP was extended so it could connect to uh the

Hovik (00:19:27):

Yeraskh junction Yeraskh is a town in armenia next to Nakhijevan and that would allow

Hovik (00:19:33):

actually armenia to send rail traffic to Iran through Nakhijevan assuming that

Hovik (00:19:39):

aliyev would allow that of course as far as I know that's not in the cards at

Hovik (00:19:43):

present yeah and I mean Pashinyan says it is but obviously um

Hovik (00:19:50):

you know we'll we'll believe it when we see it and obviously it's lower emphasis

Hovik (00:19:54):

than what Aliyev wanted to see happen which was this corridor the other I've

Asbed (00:20:02):

heard that it's going to be road a railroad there's going to be oil and gas

Asbed (00:20:07):

pipelines and fiber optics along the yeah i mean everything multimodal this TRIPP

Asbed (00:20:12):

yeah but it's all east west as far as i've heard so far

Hovik (00:20:16):

exactly exactly the other aspect is like the the armenian town of Ijevan during

Hovik (00:20:21):

soviet times there was a real link to Raza which is in Azerbaijan proper and if

Hovik (00:20:28):

that existed it would allow armenia to export uh to Russia i mean that would be

Hovik (00:20:34):

actually also a huge boon to armenia if it happened

Hovik (00:20:38):

Because the only way Armenia can send export and import items without using air or

Hovik (00:20:47):

the sea is through this small road,

Hovik (00:20:52):

military, former military highway in Georgia,

Hovik (00:20:56):

which is always like,

Hovik (00:20:59):

you know,

Hovik (00:21:00):

half of the time it's either under repairs or it's snowed out.

Hovik (00:21:03):

Are you talking about the Lars Pass?

Hovik (00:21:06):

yeah the large pass um yeah and none of these options neither the connecting to the

Hovik (00:21:12):

Yeraskh junction or rebuilding the connection between Ijevan and raza are on the

Hovik (00:21:19):

table and knowing how Aliyev works knowing how you know he's controlling all of the

Hovik (00:21:25):

cards at the moment i don't see any of those getting the light of day um

Asbed (00:21:31):

Yeah, one of the things I'd heard that Pashinyan had wanted in signing these deals and

Asbed (00:21:37):

everything is reciprocity.

Asbed (00:21:39):

And if the reciprocity is that Aliyev is going to allow some grains to be

Asbed (00:21:43):

transported through Azerbaijan towards Armenia,

Asbed (00:21:46):

I don't think we have an equal opportunity being established here.

Hovik (00:21:51):

Now, I mean, if this is truly, yeah, exactly.

Hovik (00:21:53):

If this was truly reciprocity,

Hovik (00:21:55):

then there would exist a version of the TRIPP in Georgia,

Hovik (00:21:58):

or a version of the TRIPP in Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:22:02):

with the same amount of shares like 50-50 for each partner like US and Azerbaijan

Hovik (00:22:09):

and US and Armenia.

Hovik (00:22:12):

And they would have similar rights.

Hovik (00:22:14):

Right. You know,

Hovik (00:22:15):

if there is unimpeded access for Azerbaijan through Armenia,

Hovik (00:22:19):

then we would have unimpeded access to Russia.

Hovik (00:22:22):

So to Russia or to Azerbaijan and stuff like that.

Asbed (00:22:28):

Interestingly, I think that Robert Kocharian had proposed that this TRIPP basically not just be a

Asbed (00:22:34):

43 kilometer through Armenia,

Asbed (00:22:36):

but it'd be like 200 something kilometers through Azerbaijan,

Asbed (00:22:39):

Armenia and to Turkey so that everybody would have a stake in it.

Asbed (00:22:43):

And the same stake, you know, the same rules would apply throughout.

Asbed (00:22:46):

And if the Americans are going to be controlling the road inside Armenia,

Asbed (00:22:50):

they should also control it inside Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:22:52):

And if there's going to be anything in Turkey as well.

Asbed (00:22:56):

So that would be a little more reciprocal.

Hovik (00:22:58):

it would be but even even coach said that Azerbaijan would never allow that to

Hovik (00:23:03):

happen so i think it's really important for us to say that if you're being told

Hovik (00:23:07):

that yes this may happen in the future peace is coming I got a bridge to sell you

Hovik (00:23:13):

in Baku you know so let's let's do that

Asbed (00:23:18):

Hovik, let's move to another topic.

Asbed (00:23:21):

One of the most covered aspects of Vance's visit to Armenia was the signing of an

Asbed (00:23:25):

agreement on so-called peaceful nuclear cooperation.

Asbed (00:23:29):

Vance announced that as a result of the agreement, the U.S.

Asbed (00:23:32):

would export about $5 billion worth of technologies to Armenia and an additional $4

Asbed (00:23:37):

billion in long-term support through fuel and maintenance contracts.

Asbed (00:23:42):

That would be nuclear fuel, for example.

Asbed (00:23:44):

Specifically,

Asbed (00:23:46):

these would all be going towards what's called a small nuclear reactor,

Asbed (00:23:51):

and they will have generally a capacity of about 400 megawatts or so.

Asbed (00:23:57):

I've read up to 465 megawatts,

Asbed (00:23:59):

between 300 and 465 megawatts is the general range of these things.

Asbed (00:24:07):

um but there are a lot of questions about this stuff and i'm not being negative

Asbed (00:24:11):

here because I like I'm a big fan of nuclear reactors to be honest nuclear

Asbed (00:24:16):

power I think it's a good thing but we want to know exactly what's going on with

Asbed (00:24:21):

all the conversations that Pashinyan claims exist currently for example they

Asbed (00:24:26):

say that they're talking to Russia, they're talking to china South Korea, France.

Hovik (00:24:31):

They're not talking to South Korea and France, I think.

Asbed (00:24:35):

I think I saw an article that mentioned that South Korean reactors are being

Asbed (00:24:40):

discussed or are part of the whole ecosystem of conversations.

Asbed (00:24:44):

But even if we exclude South Korea, it doesn't matter because at the same time that J.D.

Asbed (00:24:51):

Vance was in Armenia signing these agreements, Alen Simonyan was in St.

Asbed (00:24:56):

Petersburg and he was talking to Putin's people about large nuclear reactors.

Asbed (00:25:02):

Are we talking out of both sides of our mouth here or exactly what's going on?

Asbed (00:25:08):

Who are we lying to about these things?

Asbed (00:25:11):

Or are these just discussions and not really agreements?

Asbed (00:25:14):

But I think that some of the agreements that were signed by Vance in Armenia are binding, right?

Hovik (00:25:19):

I think what Pashinyan is trying to sell is that this is binding,

Hovik (00:25:22):

but it's not mutually exclusive.

Hovik (00:25:26):

I think that and I would respond to that saying the amount of money involved in

Hovik (00:25:31):

building this is effectively makes it mutually exclusive because if Armenia invests

Hovik (00:25:36):

$9 billion in doing this,

Hovik (00:25:39):

Armenia won't have any money to build any other reactor.

Asbed (00:25:43):

So let me give you context.

Asbed (00:25:45):

These, what are they called?

Asbed (00:25:47):

You're calling them small nuclear reactors.

Asbed (00:25:49):

I'm calling them small modular reactors of, let's say, 400-ish megawatts.

Asbed (00:25:54):

And the whole idea of the United States engagement,

Asbed (00:25:57):

these are not investments that are going to be made.

Asbed (00:25:59):

These are going to be US exports to Armenia.

Asbed (00:26:02):

But the thing is that this technology...

Asbed (00:26:05):

It's probably up and coming, but there are no SMRs in the world.

Asbed (00:26:10):

In fact, the only one that I know of, doing a little research,

Hovik (00:26:14):

There are no U.S.

Hovik (00:26:15):

SMRs.

Asbed (00:26:16):

Right. There are no U.S.

Asbed (00:26:17):

SMRs.

Asbed (00:26:18):

There was one that was planned in Idaho.

Asbed (00:26:21):

And the price, interestingly enough, was approximately the same thing, $9.3 billion.

Asbed (00:26:25):

And it was scrapped.

Asbed (00:26:27):

It was scrapped because it's too expensive.

Asbed (00:26:30):

And so actually,

Asbed (00:26:32):

we don't know enough about the safety,

Asbed (00:26:34):

the dynamics of the money,

Asbed (00:26:35):

how that's going to work out.

Asbed (00:26:36):

For example,

Asbed (00:26:37):

if you buy something that's going to cost you $9 billion over,

Asbed (00:26:42):

I don't even know exactly how long,

Asbed (00:26:43):

because these SMRs are not going to last as long as,

Asbed (00:26:46):

for example, Medzamor.

Asbed (00:26:47):

So what's going to be the price per kilowatt hour in an Armenian home or for export?

Asbed (00:26:53):

Is that going to be economical for Armenia to have this kind of reactor in Armenia?

Hovik (00:26:59):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:27:00):

So besides just the fact whether they're safe,

Hovik (00:27:03):

whether they are feasible financially,

Hovik (00:27:07):

the other aspect is,

Hovik (00:27:08):

of course,

Hovik (00:27:10):

the geo-strategic aspects of this.

Hovik (00:27:13):

So we'll cover basically all those three.

Hovik (00:27:15):

But I want to actually come back before going to the financial.

Hovik (00:27:18):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:27:19):

Yeah. Before going to the financial, one more question.

Asbed (00:27:22):

is is there discussion of more than one nuclear reactor or is it just one nuclear

Asbed (00:27:28):

reactor that we're talking about if it's an SMR is there going to be are there

Hovik (00:27:33):

going to be... I think armenia has said like we will get

Hovik (00:27:39):

as many as needed but for the price is that $9 Billion a piece

Hovik (00:27:44):

Yes, so 9 Billion apiece.

Hovik (00:27:47):

And we'll cover like actually, is that financially feasible or not?

Hovik (00:27:51):

But in my opinion,

Hovik (00:27:53):

I think in the next decade or so,

Hovik (00:27:55):

Armenia can only afford one of these,

Hovik (00:27:59):

if any at all.

Hovik (00:28:00):

And it will either be a large nuclear reactor,

Hovik (00:28:04):

like the one it already has,

Hovik (00:28:06):

like the one that is being...

Hovik (00:28:10):

developed by Russia in Turkey,

Hovik (00:28:12):

in Iran,

Hovik (00:28:14):

very safe,

Hovik (00:28:15):

or it would be just a nuclear reactor from the United States.

Hovik (00:28:19):

So small versus large.

Hovik (00:28:23):

As you said, the safety of SMRs is still up for debate.

Hovik (00:28:27):

Based on my research,

Hovik (00:28:28):

I mean,

Hovik (00:28:30):

it can be seen as safer in some areas,

Hovik (00:28:32):

but more dangerous in others.

Hovik (00:28:35):

I'm not an expert in this,

Hovik (00:28:36):

but let's just leave it saying that the safety of it has not been explored.

Hovik (00:28:45):

And that's the major criticism with these small reactors.

Hovik (00:28:50):

The other issue is, you know, does it increase Armenia's safety?

Hovik (00:28:56):

Does it increase Armenia's security, energy security?

Hovik (00:29:00):

I think that when you compare a large nuclear reactor,

Hovik (00:29:03):

which has multiple gigawatts of power,

Hovik (00:29:06):

or at least one gigawatt of power,

Hovik (00:29:08):

versus a small one,

Hovik (00:29:10):

I think that basically...

Hovik (00:29:16):

Obviously it's less, right?

Hovik (00:29:18):

I mean, imagine Armenia having so much energy that it could sell more to its neighbors or

Hovik (00:29:24):

utilize less natural resources such as water or gas to generate electricity.

Hovik (00:29:31):

Those are all trade-offs that Armenia is making by deliberately capping its

Hovik (00:29:37):

capacity and going for the small nuclear reactors.

Hovik (00:29:41):

And this definitely doesn't,

Hovik (00:29:49):

in my opinion,

Hovik (00:29:50):

the small nuclear reactors don't increase Armenia's energy independence and

Hovik (00:29:54):

security.

Hovik (00:29:55):

The only major con of a large reactor is it's a higher upfront cost.

Hovik (00:30:10):

But that's a financial issue.

Hovik (00:30:12):

But I cannot think of any negative aspect in terms of large versus small.

Hovik (00:30:20):

Besides the finances, right?

Hovik (00:30:21):

I mean, yes.

Asbed (00:30:24):

Maybe, and that's what's advertised.

Asbed (00:30:26):

But if we were to look at the SMRs at about 9 billion total cost of ownership over

Asbed (00:30:33):

whatever number of years,

Asbed (00:30:34):

and we are talking about the VVER 1200,

Asbed (00:30:37):

that is a large nuclear reactor that Russia is proposing.

Asbed (00:30:42):

Each block is a gigawatt.

Asbed (00:30:45):

And the plan, I think, is around $3 billion that they have proposed.

Hovik (00:30:49):

At least half the price.

Hovik (00:30:50):

So we'll cover essentially.

Asbed (00:30:53):

So essentially, where's the capital outlay that is scary about the large nuclear reactor?

Hovik (00:30:58):

I think that when you compare it with US large nuclear reactors,

Hovik (00:31:02):

yes,

Hovik (00:31:03):

the small 9 billion is much less than what the large nuclear reactor in the US

Hovik (00:31:11):

would cost.

Hovik (00:31:12):

But when you compare it actually with Chinese

Hovik (00:31:16):

Russian or even South Korean ones,

Hovik (00:31:19):

it's actually the small US nuclear reactors are almost the same price or even more

Hovik (00:31:26):

expensive than the large nuclear reactors from those countries.

Asbed (00:31:30):

So the building is $5 billion, let's say.

Asbed (00:31:33):

And then there's, of course, the maintenance and everything.

Asbed (00:31:36):

And the $3 billion that is proposed by the Russians,

Asbed (00:31:39):

and that's for a gigawatt for each block,

Asbed (00:31:42):

I think.

Asbed (00:31:43):

There would be two blocks.

Asbed (00:31:44):

Now you don't have to fire up both of them, but just basically each one would be a gigawatt.

Asbed (00:31:49):

That's a huge amount of security and for $3 billion.

Asbed (00:31:52):

And I don't believe that that includes the fuel over the years,

Asbed (00:31:56):

but the fuel over the years is some millions of dollars.

Hovik (00:31:59):

I want to talk about something and Asbed you can decide to delete this or not,

Hovik (00:32:03):

but

Hovik (00:32:06):

over the last three four years we've been interested in this topic and we've

Hovik (00:32:11):

been trying to talk to experts you know who talk to us about this and one of the

Hovik (00:32:16):

most well-known experts about nuclear energy in the armenian circles you know we

Hovik (00:32:20):

approached them and do you remember that conversation and i i don't want to mention

Hovik (00:32:25):

the name but

Hovik (00:32:27):

very quickly,

Hovik (00:32:28):

you know,

Hovik (00:32:29):

we were asking,

Hovik (00:32:30):

Okay, well, you know,

Hovik (00:32:31):

which one should we get smaller or larger?

Hovik (00:32:33):

And somehow, the conversation ended up about Bucha in Ukraine.

Hovik (00:32:39):

And this person told us that, how dare you like, you know, legitimize Russia.

Hovik (00:32:45):

And I think that that's the other major concern is

Hovik (00:32:51):

geopolitical dependence so if you get a large nuclear reactor it will be a longer

Hovik (00:32:58):

term commitment and you will be tying your geopolitics to that provider for

Hovik (00:33:04):

multiple decades whether it's Russia or china or South Korea right so i think

Hovik (00:33:12):

that's the

Hovik (00:33:14):

That's the elephant in the room that people are not talking about.

Hovik (00:33:18):

This deal is all about switching Armenia's geopolitical dependence or cutting

Hovik (00:33:24):

Armenia's geopolitical dependence to Russia.

Hovik (00:33:25):

So if we're just talking objectively, the Russian one would win.

Hovik (00:33:29):

But what people are not mentioning is this is a brute force way to cut Armenia from

Hovik (00:33:35):

Russia at all costs.

Asbed (00:33:37):

Yeah, okay.

Asbed (00:33:38):

Hovik,

Asbed (00:33:39):

as you mentioned,

Asbed (00:33:40):

Bucha, we also have to mention Zaporozhye,

Asbed (00:33:42):

the nuclear reactor that Ukraine operates on.

Asbed (00:33:45):

That's a VVER 1000, I think.

Asbed (00:33:48):

And look how important it is to the country that they have a gigawatt nuclear reactor there.

Asbed (00:33:55):

But more importantly,

Asbed (00:33:57):

let's also say that we're going to continue looking for a couple of experts to talk

Asbed (00:34:01):

to. We want a dispassionate discussion of the technology and the science and what is

Asbed (00:34:08):

beneficial for Armenia rather than,

Asbed (00:34:10):

you know, something that is clouded by politics and whose side Armenia should be on,

Asbed (00:34:15):

etc.,

Asbed (00:34:16):

etc.

Asbed (00:34:17):

So you want to talk a little bit about the finances?

Hovik (00:34:20):

Yeah,

Hovik (00:34:21):

so we already actually covered the fact that there are large nuclear reactors from

Hovik (00:34:27):

multiple countries,

Hovik (00:34:28):

including China,

Hovik (00:34:30):

Russia and South Korea,

Hovik (00:34:31):

that are very affordable and potentially cheaper than this small nuclear reactor.

Hovik (00:34:37):

The other thing that I want to mention is that is a common fact that large nuclear

Hovik (00:34:41):

reactors are also more energy efficient.

Hovik (00:34:44):

So right now,

Hovik (00:34:45):

even the claims about energy efficiency by small nuclear reactors,

Hovik (00:34:51):

knowing that they're less energy efficient than large is not enough,

Hovik (00:34:54):

but they have a certain claim that they can reach a certain

Hovik (00:34:57):

a certain cost, those are not proven.

Hovik (00:35:00):

And one expert that I contacted offline,

Hovik (00:35:05):

you know, about about this,

Hovik (00:35:07):

they said that a nuclear power reactor would need to operate for five to 10 years

Hovik (00:35:13):

before that cost could be proven.

Hovik (00:35:15):

So it's entirely possible that this small nuclear reactor could cost even more than

Hovik (00:35:22):

what is being sold as

Hovik (00:35:25):

and I think most press that we're reading is that some nuclear small reactors

Hovik (00:35:33):

will come online in 2030 or sometime in the 2030s so we will have to wait almost

Hovik (00:35:39):

half a decade for these reactors to come online then wait another half a decade at

Hovik (00:35:47):

minimum in order to be able to ascertain whether the promised cost is attainable or

Hovik (00:35:54):

not

Hovik (00:35:55):

Doesn't sound very appealing to me if you ask me.

Asbed (00:35:58):

No, I think it's a real problem.

Asbed (00:36:01):

In fact, we already know that Medzamor has been extended or is being extended currently to

Asbed (00:36:07):

operate until the year 2036.

Asbed (00:36:09):

So that's exactly 10 years from now.

Asbed (00:36:11):

But I also saw an article that said that Pashinyan is...

Asbed (00:36:15):

thinking of extending it to 2046, 20 years from now.

Asbed (00:36:19):

So that tells me that this government has a lot of uncertainty about the direction

Asbed (00:36:24):

that it might take because some of the directions that it's being pushed in,

Asbed (00:36:29):

are not really,

Asbed (00:36:30):

I mean,

Asbed (00:36:31):

they may be politically doable because there's a lot of pressure on them,

Asbed (00:36:35):

but economically and science and technology-wise,

Asbed (00:36:38):

it is not the right direction.

Asbed (00:36:39):

So there's going to be a long time of indecision coming on.

Asbed (00:36:42):

Hovik,

Asbed (00:36:43):

just a little bit earlier,

Asbed (00:36:44):

we talked a little bit about the financing and how it's going to work out because

Asbed (00:36:48):

Armenian media had said that the United States is going to be investing up to $9

Asbed (00:36:54):

billion.

Asbed (00:36:55):

What's that about?

Hovik (00:36:58):

The Trump administration giving away money, yes.

Hovik (00:37:00):

That's right.

Hovik (00:37:01):

Free money, people.

Hovik (00:37:03):

Free money.

Hovik (00:37:04):

If you read any article that mentions that the US is actually going to invest,

Hovik (00:37:08):

just stop reading because that's false.

Hovik (00:37:11):

That may have started when translators mistranslated

Hovik (00:37:18):

Vance said that the US would export $5 billion worth of nuclear technology and then

Hovik (00:37:25):

$4 billion worth of fuel plus support,

Hovik (00:37:29):

and someone decided to translate the word export into invest.

Hovik (00:37:34):

uh it was corrected but i think that didn't uh not not before all the media started

Hovik (00:37:39):

running with you know the us is going to invest nine billion nothing like that is

Hovik (00:37:43):

going to happen is going to happen not with the trump administration not with any

Hovik (00:37:46):

future administration obviously the us is getting a good deal it's getting its

Hovik (00:37:52):

technology sold to a willing um you know psychopath leader who will do anything uh

Hovik (00:37:58):

it says so um

Asbed (00:38:01):

I mean, that aspect has been on display front and center,

Asbed (00:38:05):

both for Armenia,

Asbed (00:38:06):

because they are talking about selling to Armenia.

Asbed (00:38:09):

And the same thing with Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:38:12):

Vance's promotion was that they're going to be selling them body armor and boats

Asbed (00:38:17):

made in America or made in the USA,

Asbed (00:38:20):

as Trump was saying,

Asbed (00:38:21):

all the way back in,

Asbed (00:38:23):

what was it, January or August 8th?

Asbed (00:38:25):

Well, all the way back.

Hovik (00:38:27):

The other thing which is really irritating is that Pashinyan is not publishing the

Hovik (00:38:32):

details of this agreement.

Hovik (00:38:34):

Just like the TRIPP,

Hovik (00:38:35):

we were left speculating and we learned that it's actually what we were fearing the

Hovik (00:38:40):

most happened with TRIPP.

Hovik (00:38:43):

Pashinyan is not publicizing the details of this agreement.

Hovik (00:38:46):

So we can't be sure.

Hovik (00:38:47):

But many experts in Armenia are saying basically that Armenia will have to...

Hovik (00:38:55):

borrow the nine billion so how much is armenia's debt you add nine billion to that

Hovik (00:39:01):

uh thanks to this deal and that's what armenia will get as part of this well the

Asbed (00:39:07):

national debt stands at about 14 and a half billion right now which has been

Asbed (00:39:11):

accumulated over

Asbed (00:39:13):

How many years?

Asbed (00:39:14):

Well, most of it has been accumulated in the last seven years.

Asbed (00:39:19):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:39:20):

And now adding another, whatever, 75% to it.

Asbed (00:39:24):

It's insane.

Asbed (00:39:27):

You mentioned something about the dependency and sovereignty of Armenia being

Asbed (00:39:33):

flipped to the West for decades to come.

Asbed (00:39:37):

Can you talk a little bit more about what you were thinking there?

Hovik (00:39:40):

you have to realize that US is on the other side of the earth.

Hovik (00:39:43):

In order for this to operate long term,

Hovik (00:39:46):

US would have to get fuel to Armenia and potentially take fuel out of Armenia.

Hovik (00:39:54):

One more other one more

Hovik (00:39:56):

thing that I want to mention about the current Medzamor reactor is that at least

Hovik (00:40:00):

some of the fuel is being taken by Russia,

Hovik (00:40:03):

taken back to Russia and being refined there or whatever,

Hovik (00:40:07):

but it's not the spent fuel,

Hovik (00:40:08):

right?

Hovik (00:40:09):

Yeah, the spent fuel, the waste.

Hovik (00:40:11):

So anyway, the question now with these small reactors is how is the U.S.

Hovik (00:40:16):

going to bring in fuel?

Hovik (00:40:18):

So for those who don't know the geography,

Hovik (00:40:20):

Armenia has four neighbors,

Hovik (00:40:23):

Turkey, Iran,

Hovik (00:40:25):

Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Hovik (00:40:27):

I think we can safely cross Iran off the list in terms of allowing nuclear fuel to

Hovik (00:40:33):

traverse its territory from the United States to Armenia.

Hovik (00:40:36):

Now, would Turkey and Azerbaijan allow US nuclear fuel to traverse their territories to Armenia?

Hovik (00:40:44):

I think if they do, that would be a very huge

Asbed (00:40:48):

It would be either a political favor or strategic leverage, like you mentioned.

Asbed (00:40:53):

And it would never happen in the middle of a time of need.

Asbed (00:40:56):

Like in the middle of a war, that would never happen.

Asbed (00:40:59):

I was having a flashback to our conversation many years ago.

Asbed (00:41:02):

We were having the same conversation about military equipment.

Asbed (00:41:06):

How is anybody like, I think we were talking about France.

Asbed (00:41:10):

How is France or Europe going to get Armenia, any kind of weaponry in the middle of a war?

Hovik (00:41:15):

The only way it would happen is if there was peace,

Hovik (00:41:19):

but we're seeing that what Turkey and Azerbaijan are doing is basically promising

Hovik (00:41:27):

to make Armenia a province of Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:41:30):

So yes,

Hovik (00:41:31):

if the future is that Azerbaijan will have full say,

Hovik (00:41:34):

100%, and it will govern Armenia directly,

Hovik (00:41:38):

to the detriment of anything that you know of our church of our national interests

Hovik (00:41:43):

then yes maybe it will allow fuel to from the u.s to go through this territory or

Hovik (00:41:48):

to go through turkey otherwise anyone thinking that this is going to be a

Hovik (00:41:53):

long-term viable option is I got another bridge it's between that's a lot of

Hovik (00:41:59):

bridges yeah it's from Baku from the Caspian region so 'll definitely

Asbed (00:42:05):

you know let's also mention Georgia to the north

Asbed (00:42:09):

A lot of people just say basically, oh, it'll go through Georgia.

Asbed (00:42:11):

Georgia is heavily dependent on Turkey and Azerbaijan and cannot cross them.

Asbed (00:42:17):

So a lot of people think that those guys backstab Armenians, whatever...

Asbed (00:42:21):

That's not the truth.

Asbed (00:42:22):

Look at it from the Georgian perspective.

Asbed (00:42:24):

They are so heavily dependent on their east and west that they cannot cross them.

Asbed (00:42:28):

So in the middle of a war, if Turkey tells you better stop this, they will stop it.

Asbed (00:42:33):

They have no option.

Hovik (00:42:35):

Yeah, and the only way it would go to Georgia is if the cargo bypasses the Strait of

Hovik (00:42:39):

Bosphorus,

Hovik (00:42:40):

which is another chokehold that Turkey has.

Hovik (00:42:43):

So that's the other thing.

Hovik (00:42:45):

I think that we're replacing dependency on Russia with dependency on the United

Hovik (00:42:50):

States plus dependency on Turkey and dependency on Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:42:55):

Because as we have learned over the years, Azerbaijan has veto power.

Hovik (00:42:59):

You can say they're the same state or you can say that Azerbaijan has veto power,

Hovik (00:43:04):

especially as it concerns Armenia.

Hovik (00:43:06):

Again,

Hovik (00:43:07):

we'll cover this topic again in the future,

Hovik (00:43:09):

but the bottom line is that this is a very uncertain deal in a region where

Hovik (00:43:17):

geopolitical earthquakes happen very frequently and leaves a lot to be answered for

Hovik (00:43:24):

now.

Hovik (00:43:26):

Okay,

Hovik (00:43:27):

so the other thing aspect that was mentioned during this visit by Vance is this

Hovik (00:43:32):

Firebird project for $4 billion in AI investments.

Hovik (00:43:39):

Can you tell us a little bit more about that?

Asbed (00:43:42):

Not a lot, Hovik, actually, because we don't have a lot of details.

Asbed (00:43:48):

What we have is that last year there was a major press release and Firebird.ai,

Asbed (00:43:55):

I think this organization,

Asbed (00:43:57):

company,

Asbed (00:43:58):

started with...

Asbed (00:44:00):

what they said was a $500 million investment.

Asbed (00:44:03):

And now Pashinyan and Vance are talking about a phase two starting,

Asbed (00:44:08):

and we're left to guess that phase 1 was actually centered around obtaining

Asbed (00:44:15):

export licenses from the United States for something on the order of about 50,000

Asbed (00:44:21):

GPUs from NVIDIA to start this data center in Armenia.

Asbed (00:44:25):

So apparently they have now,

Asbed (00:44:27):

you know, with this whole JD Vance visit and everything,

Asbed (00:44:29):

they've apparently secured that license and phase 2 can start.

Asbed (00:44:33):

But I honestly don't know exactly what phase 2 entails.

Asbed (00:44:36):

Do you know?

Asbed (00:44:37):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:44:39):

Only what's been published, but I do have two things that I want to cover.

Hovik (00:44:43):

First, we know that apparently they have decided to build this data center in Hrazdan.

Hovik (00:44:49):

And Hrazdan is a site of a major Armenian power station, a thermal power station.

Hovik (00:44:58):

To be clear, not a nuclear power station.

Hovik (00:45:02):

Yes, it's a thermal power station operating on gas.

Hovik (00:45:06):

A quick question to Russia haters.

Hovik (00:45:10):

Do you know where Armenia gets the gas to power the Hrazdan thermal power plant from?

Hovik (00:45:15):

Yes, energy from that power plant is going to be used to power this data center.

Hovik (00:45:22):

Now,

Hovik (00:45:23):

I also have done a little of a back of the napkin calculation because it was

Hovik (00:45:27):

mentioned that this is going to be 50,000 NVIDIA high performance GPUs.

Hovik (00:45:31):

If you're trying to build out a data center, you have to convert that to a number of racks.

Hovik (00:45:36):

Each rack is about 72 GPUs.

Hovik (00:45:38):

So that gives us about 700 racks that,

Hovik (00:45:42):

you know,

Hovik (00:45:43):

Armenia would have to build out in order to house all those GPUs.

Hovik (00:45:46):

The workload from from those racks is about

Hovik (00:45:53):

106 megawatts.

Hovik (00:45:54):

I did the calculation.

Hovik (00:45:55):

I'm not going to bore you with it, but it's a basic calculation.

Hovik (00:46:00):

Number of racks multiplied by each rack's capacity.

Hovik (00:46:05):

I think each rack is 140 kilowatts.

Hovik (00:46:08):

I came up, my math came to 107 megawatts.

Hovik (00:46:12):

And when you're building data centers,

Hovik (00:46:13):

there's also this thing called power usage effectiveness,

Hovik (00:46:18):

PUE.

Hovik (00:46:19):

Basically, that's the loss factor.

Hovik (00:46:22):

And if you account for 30% loss,

Hovik (00:46:25):

then the NVIDIA or the Firebird data center could potentially consume 140 megawatts

Hovik (00:46:36):

of energy.

Hovik (00:46:38):

That is basically all of Armenia's surplus energy.

Hovik (00:46:43):

Last year, in 2023, Armenia sold 187 megawatts of energy surplus.

Hovik (00:46:50):

So essentially, it sold it to Iran.

Hovik (00:46:54):

It sold it in exchange for Iranian gas.

Hovik (00:46:57):

So what this means is that Armenia would not have any energy to sell to Iran in

Hovik (00:47:05):

exchange for that gas.

Hovik (00:47:09):

And maybe this is also another geopolitical factor.

Hovik (00:47:12):

But just imagine,

Hovik (00:47:14):

just one of these data centers is going to utilize almost half of that small

Hovik (00:47:20):

nuclear reactor's capacity that Armenia is planning to build.

Hovik (00:47:23):

Coming back to this Iran thing,

Hovik (00:47:25):

if Armenia,

Hovik (00:47:26):

let's say tomorrow the data center is operating,

Hovik (00:47:28):

it would consume all of Armenia's surplus.

Hovik (00:47:31):

And if Armenia wanted to actually generate more electricity,

Hovik (00:47:36):

to sell to Iran in exchange for Iranian gas,

Hovik (00:47:40):

then Armenia would have to either rely more on natural gas or

Hovik (00:47:48):

hydropower.

Hovik (00:47:49):

So that would be a huge drain on Lake seven.

Hovik (00:47:52):

And that's another thing that people aren't not talking about.

Hovik (00:47:54):

So and even then this nuclear small nuclear reactor will will come online like a

Hovik (00:48:01):

decade from now,

Hovik (00:48:02):

right? So we're thinking, and how are we going to wait a decade for this data center?

Hovik (00:48:08):

I don't think so.

Hovik (00:48:09):

I don't think I think the timelines for data center are much shorter frame.

Asbed (00:48:13):

Movic, you mentioned a little bit earlier that there is a protocol for state visits.

Asbed (00:48:18):

I want to not ignore the fact that another very important protocol was missed on

Asbed (00:48:25):

the part of J.D. Vance.

Asbed (00:48:26):

Of course,

Asbed (00:48:27):

the visit to Tsitsernakabert is one thing,

Asbed (00:48:29):

and another one is to visit the Catholicos of all Armenians,

Asbed (00:48:33):

and that didn't happen,

Asbed (00:48:34):

even though J.D.

Asbed (00:48:35):

Vance

Asbed (00:48:36):

paid lip service to Armenia as a very old Christian nation, Christian values, blah, blah, blah.

Asbed (00:48:42):

And then he doesn't go and visit the Armenian Catholicos.

Asbed (00:48:46):

So essentially, just imagine, he goes to the Vatican, does not see the Pope.

Hovik (00:48:52):

Yeah, it's even worse.

Hovik (00:48:54):

It's even worse because claiming to be a devout Christian and a protector of

Hovik (00:49:00):

Christianity across the world.

Hovik (00:49:02):

Vance failed to mention that Pashinyan is currently leading a campaign to dethrone

Hovik (00:49:07):

the Catholicos and

Hovik (00:49:10):

Pashinyan has jailed multiple higher ranking clergy in an effort to essentially

Hovik (00:49:14):

rewrite church doctrine.

Hovik (00:49:17):

And this is a huge affront to...

Asbed (00:49:20):

A lot of Armenian organizations and ombudsmen and what have you had asked him to

Asbed (00:49:26):

say something about Armenian prisoners and clerics who are jailed in Armenia and

Asbed (00:49:31):

everything. There was not a peep.

Asbed (00:49:33):

about any of this.

Asbed (00:49:34):

He just completely glossed over it and moved on.

Asbed (00:49:37):

Huvik, sorry about that detour about the church.

Asbed (00:49:42):

Talk to me about,

Asbed (00:49:43):

in technology,

Asbed (00:49:44):

about these drones that Armenia obtained for 11 million dollars.

Asbed (00:49:48):

There's apparently about 22 of them that we obtained.

Asbed (00:49:52):

What kind of drones are these?

Hovik (00:49:57):

I'm just going based on what's reported in media.

Hovik (00:50:00):

These are like vertical takeoff into ISR drones.

Hovik (00:50:06):

I think some may even be repurposed to carry weapons,

Hovik (00:50:09):

but their primary purpose is for intelligence,

Hovik (00:50:12):

surveillance and reconnaissance.

Hovik (00:50:14):

But they're slow moving.

Hovik (00:50:16):

Right. I mean, they're like they're not supersonic.

Hovik (00:50:20):

And I would assume that supersonic.

Asbed (00:50:22):

Can I tell you how fast they go?

Hovik (00:50:24):

How fast?

Asbed (00:50:26):

OK, they go a little faster than you and I running.

Asbed (00:50:29):

OK, they go their top speed is 56.

Asbed (00:50:32):

I suddenly I'm forgetting miles an hour, I think.

Hovik (00:50:36):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:50:37):

OK, so it's nothing.

Hovik (00:50:38):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:50:39):

Each of these drones cost.

Hovik (00:50:42):

And and to add to that,

Hovik (00:50:44):

yeah, I mean, the only like the only touted benefit of these is they they are A.I.

Hovik (00:50:49):

drones. Anything you add A.I.

Hovik (00:50:51):

is like greatly increases the value.

Hovik (00:50:53):

and they have ability to swarm and things like that.

Hovik (00:50:56):

The other basic fact is this is an 11 million dollar contract and each drone costs

Hovik (00:51:02):

about half a million dollars.

Hovik (00:51:03):

So at maximum you can get about 20 drones.

Hovik (00:51:06):

I think more realistically maybe like 12 to 15 drones is what Armenia is planning to purchase.

Hovik (00:51:12):

And we won't mention

Hovik (00:51:15):

We're not military experts,

Hovik (00:51:16):

so maybe we'll cover this in the future with more qualified experts,

Hovik (00:51:20):

but all I can say is that if Armenia wanted to purchase Shahed drones,

Hovik (00:51:25):

you know,

Hovik (00:51:26):

based on an estimate of $20,000 per unit,

Hovik (00:51:29):

Armenia could have purchased 500 Shahed drones,

Hovik (00:51:33):

and the Russian version is Geran,

Hovik (00:51:35):

550 actually.

Hovik (00:51:39):

Or Armenia could have,

Hovik (00:51:40):

if you're talking about reconnaissance drones,

Hovik (00:51:42):

Armenia could have purchased 110 Orlan 10 drones from Russia at $100,000 each.

Hovik (00:51:48):

Assuming Russia is selling them, of course.

Asbed (00:51:49):

I guess it really depends on what the purpose is going to be.

Asbed (00:51:53):

I mean, you said ISR.

Asbed (00:51:54):

These things are not weaponized, the ones that Armenia got.

Asbed (00:51:58):

They're the low-end models.

Asbed (00:51:59):

They're all ISR.

Asbed (00:52:00):

So they're being given, Armenia is being given purely defensive weaponry.

Asbed (00:52:05):

And frankly, I don't even know what they're going to defend against.

Asbed (00:52:08):

Are they going to be doing ISR on the Azerbaijani border,

Asbed (00:52:12):

on the Turkish border,

Asbed (00:52:14):

or the Iranian border by the Americans?

Asbed (00:52:16):

So we don't know.

Hovik (00:52:17):

Maybe ISR against Pashinyan's internal political enemies,

Hovik (00:52:21):

or more specifically,

Hovik (00:52:23):

protecting Pashinyan's security as he moves through Armenia.

Hovik (00:52:29):

But I think what's also important to mention is that

Hovik (00:52:34):

our discussion about just like our nuclear discussion about nuclear, these

Hovik (00:52:39):

weapons would have to arrive to Armenia through one of the four neighbors of

Hovik (00:52:43):

Armenia and in a time of war if Armenia needed to replenish its stock very quickly

Hovik (00:52:49):

of these very slow moving drones that could be shut down very easily if Armenia

Hovik (00:52:54):

wanted to replenish its stock at a time of war think about

Hovik (00:52:59):

the route those weapons would have to get to or if they would be able to get to Armenia at all.

Hovik (00:53:06):

in comparison with Russian weapons, for instance, or Iranian, right?

Hovik (00:53:10):

Iranian, you share a direct border, so Armenia could just import from Iran.

Hovik (00:53:15):

The Russians once could go to Georgia.

Hovik (00:53:17):

Russia has some leverage over Georgia, politically, to allow export of weapons to Armenia.

Hovik (00:53:23):

Or worst case,

Hovik (00:53:25):

Russia can also send weapons to Armenia through Iran,

Hovik (00:53:28):

through the same Iranian border.

Hovik (00:53:30):

And all of that is now being forsaken for these V-BAT drones and remains to be seen

Hovik (00:53:43):

what they'll be used for.

Asbed (00:53:45):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:53:46):

I want to move on to note that JD Vance actually endorsed,

Asbed (00:53:52):

full-on endorsed Pashinyan during the elections.

Asbed (00:53:55):

Hovik, did you hear Alen Simonian complaining of foreign interference in Armenia's elections?

Hovik (00:54:01):

No, and also no one talked about any malign U.S.

Hovik (00:54:05):

influence or fifth generation hybrid war.

Hovik (00:54:11):

It was very weird.

Asbed (00:54:12):

Or anything about Europeans sending $15 million to Pashinyan's campaign, essentially.

Asbed (00:54:19):

Okay, well, Hovik, let's move on to our final topic here and talk a little bit about J.D.

Asbed (00:54:25):

Vance in Baku, because he flew directly from Yerevan to Baku.

Asbed (00:54:28):

That was interesting.

Asbed (00:54:30):

What did he do there?

Hovik (00:54:32):

To be honest, I'm not sure.

Hovik (00:54:34):

I wasn't following in detail.

Hovik (00:54:35):

And also, I'm not sure if...

Hovik (00:54:38):

was anything worth covering the only thing that I took notes from about this visit

Hovik (00:54:43):

to Baku is, he visited their monument to their martyrs and he didn't shy away

Hovik (00:54:51):

from using their name, the name of the monument and he didn't delete his tweet about

Hovik (00:54:54):

that, he promised that he would talk about Armenian hostages but

Hovik (00:55:02):

There was nothing reported about him talking about Armenian hostages,

Hovik (00:55:06):

and the Armenian hostages remain in Baku still.

Asbed (00:55:10):

He claims that they actually did talk about that,

Asbed (00:55:14):

but we have absolutely no idea exactly what hostages he talked about because

Asbed (00:55:18):

Aliyev,

Asbed (00:55:19):

of course, his jails are full of his opposition as well,

Asbed (00:55:22):

the same as Pashinyan.

Asbed (00:55:23):

So we don't know if he was talking about Azeri prisoners of conscience,

Asbed (00:55:29):

as they call it in the West,

Asbed (00:55:30):

or are we talking about the prisoners of war and the hostages that they have,

Asbed (00:55:34):

Armenian hostages in their jails,

Asbed (00:55:37):

many of whom recently were sentenced to 20 years to life,

Asbed (00:55:42):

actually.

Asbed (00:55:43):

So we just basically have no idea.

Asbed (00:55:46):

But I do want to add one aspect, Hovik, because in Armenia, there were demonstrations.

Asbed (00:55:51):

In Yerevan, there were demonstrations.

Asbed (00:55:53):

People wanted to demonstrate,

Asbed (00:55:54):

but they were not allowed to demonstrate anywhere where Vance was motorcading

Asbed (00:55:58):

through.

Asbed (00:55:59):

They were able to, I think, demonstrate in front of Pashinyan's residents or whatever.

Hovik (00:56:04):

Just to be complete,

Hovik (00:56:06):

in Baku, Vance signed this upgraded strategic partnership agreement with Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:56:12):

Additionally, they signed a deal to procure US weapons.

Asbed (00:56:16):

Yeah. So in the past,

Asbed (00:56:17):

actually,

Asbed (00:56:18):

the United States has already broken through Section 907 and sold them a lot of

Asbed (00:56:23):

body armor and stuff.

Asbed (00:56:25):

This time, they're also selling them a small armada in the Caspian Sea.

Asbed (00:56:30):

And fortunately, that's not going to be against Armenia.

Asbed (00:56:33):

Obviously, they're not going to use that stuff against Armenia.

Hovik (00:56:36):

You never know because Aliyev has intentions on Lake Sevan, too.

Hovik (00:56:42):

But anyway.

Asbed (00:56:45):

Well, OK, let's not laugh about that because that could be serious.

Asbed (00:56:48):

But who are these boats going to be used against?

Asbed (00:56:53):

There's only so many littoral states around the Caspian.

Asbed (00:56:58):

It's going to be right next door against Iran or also possibly against Russia.

Asbed (00:57:04):

Put this in the context of a $6.5 billion spend on the part of Aliyev on Air Force

Asbed (00:57:09):

procurements from Sweden and Pakistan.

Hovik (00:57:14):

And Italy.

Asbed (00:57:14):

We're seeing Azerbaijan armed to the teeth.

Asbed (00:57:22):

What is the purpose of this?

Asbed (00:57:23):

If peace has broken out in the South Caucasus,

Asbed (00:57:27):

why is there such a crazy arming of Azerbaijan going on right now?

Asbed (00:57:34):

Who are the countries who need to be worried about this?

Asbed (00:57:37):

Is it Armenia?

Asbed (00:57:38):

No, I think Armenia is already toast.

Asbed (00:57:41):

And as long as Pashinyan is around,

Asbed (00:57:43):

Armenia is not going to be a factor in any geopolitical or even regional matters.

Asbed (00:57:50):

So, you know, let's be clear.

Asbed (00:57:52):

I personally think Iran needs to worry about this significantly.

Asbed (00:57:58):

This is all against Iran.

Asbed (00:58:00):

And as you said a little bit earlier, Israel has a big stake and this is the stake.

Hovik (00:58:06):

Definitely. I think that my personal belief is that Azerbaijan is being primed

Hovik (00:58:11):

for its role in any future Israeli U.S. attempt to dismember Iran, god forbid that

Hovik (00:58:20):

happens, but Azerbaijan has a central role in turkey as well I mean turkey declared

Hovik (00:58:26):

that it is going to create a buffer zone on its border with Iran

Hovik (00:58:31):

I think both Turkey and Azerbaijan are going to be central to the northern front of

Hovik (00:58:37):

the war against Iran.

Hovik (00:58:38):

Maybe they'll like initially but but they're doing their best to not be sound

Hovik (00:58:43):

belligerent right now.

Hovik (00:58:45):

But I think

Asbed (00:58:48):

Turkey cannot be pushed around easily.

Asbed (00:58:50):

But Azerbaijan, these are the chips that are being called in right now.

Asbed (00:58:55):

Azerbaijan was given aid internationally to take over Artsakh, Nagorno-Karabakh.

Asbed (00:59:02):

And this was the price that they're going to pay.

Asbed (00:59:05):

The price to pay is that they're going to work against Iran.

Asbed (00:59:08):

That's what's going to happen.

Hovik (00:59:09):

Yes.

Hovik (00:59:11):

Anyway,

Hovik (00:59:12):

that is the wider context that all this event should be seen in as well,

Hovik (00:59:17):

whether it's isolating Iran by transport and communications,

Hovik (00:59:22):

or building more US influence in Armenia,

Hovik (00:59:26):

or selling weapons to Iran's enemies,

Hovik (00:59:30):

or potential enemies.

Hovik (00:59:32):

It's all about Iran.

Asbed (00:59:35):

It's all about Iran at the current phase.

Asbed (00:59:37):

But I think that after Iran settles in a new form,

Asbed (00:59:40):

a new modus vivendi in the region,

Asbed (00:59:45):

I think the next thing for Azerbaijan will be to turn north.

Asbed (00:59:49):

The kind of armament it's being sold,

Asbed (00:59:51):

I think, can also put up a big fight or a big fuss against Russia.

Asbed (00:59:55):

And if you ask me, I think the Kremlin is asleep at the wheel.

Hovik (01:00:00):

No, thanks for staying with us, folks.

Hovik (01:00:04):

We try to do a digest of what happened with this Vance visit.

Hovik (01:00:12):

As you see, our opinion may differ greatly.

Hovik (01:00:18):

from what you read in the media.

Hovik (01:00:20):

And there was a huge variance in terms of whether this was a good thing or whether

Hovik (01:00:24):

it was a bad thing.

Hovik (01:00:27):

Some focused on Vance's faux pas, others focused on, yeah, this is a good deal for the US.

Hovik (01:00:33):

And if you're from a US perspective, this was a good deal.

Hovik (01:00:37):

From the Armenian perspective, it continues to be humiliation upon humiliation, I would say.

Hovik (01:00:46):

I had a certain expectation in terms of the level of humiliation that we would get,

Hovik (01:00:50):

and this surpassed even my worst expectations.

Asbed (01:00:56):

Okay, everyone, stay tuned.

Asbed (01:00:58):

We'll talk to you soon.

Asbed (01:00:59):

I'm Asbed Bedrossian in Los Angeles.

Hovik (01:01:02):

And I'm Hovik Manucharyan in Glendale as well.

Hovik (01:01:05):

Don't forget to like, comment, share, and subscribe.

Hovik (01:01:09):

And have a great weekend.

Asbed (01:01:13):

Podcasts.groong.org/episode-number for the show notes and slash donate to help

Asbed (01:01:19):

us in other ways.

Asbed (01:01:21):

Talk to you soon.

Asbed (01:01:23):

Take care.

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Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
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Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host

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