Armenian News Network - Groong: Week In Review Podcast

Hrant Mikaelian - Iran War, Effect on Armenia, Sumgait Pogroms, | Ep 520, Mar 1, 2026

• Armenian News Network / Groong • Episode 520

Share episode

Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.

0:00 | 49:23

Groong Week in Review - March 1, 2026

Topics

  • US and Israel launch war against Iran
  • Decapitation strikes, mass civilian casualties
  • Iran retaliates region-wide, war expands
  • Armenia leadership silent
  • Sumgait remembered


Guest

Hosts


Episode 520 | Recorded: March 2, 2026

#IranWar #EpicFury #MiddleEastWar #ArmeniaForeignPolicy #Sumgait1988 #IranIsraelConflict


Subscribe and follow us everywhere you are: linktr.ee/groong

Asbed (00:00:04):

Hello, everyone,

Asbed (00:00:05):

and welcome to the Armenian News Network Groong Weekend Review for March 1,

Asbed (00:00:09):

2026.

Asbed (00:00:10):

Today, we're talking with Hrant Mikaelian, a multidisciplinary researcher based in Yerevan.

Asbed (00:00:16):

Hello, Hrant. Thanks for joining us on the Groong Podcast.

Hrant (00:00:19):

Hello, Asbed.

Hrant (00:00:20):

Hello, Hovik.

Hrant (00:00:21):

Thank you for having me.

Asbed (00:00:25):

So we are recording on Tuesday, March 3rd, and today is day four of the U.S.

Asbed (00:00:30):

and Israeli war on Iran, or what the U.S.

Asbed (00:00:33):

calls Operation Epic Fury.

Asbed (00:00:36):

Just days before,

Asbed (00:00:37):

Oman, which was a key mediator and venue for the nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S.,

Asbed (00:00:42):

had said that

Asbed (00:00:44):

There was real progress in the talks, and Iran was ready to accept the U.S.

Asbed (00:00:49):

conditions almost of zero enrichment.

Asbed (00:00:52):

Yet, just like the 12-day war in June 2025,

Asbed (00:00:55):

Washington chose to launch this war of aggression on Iran,

Asbed (00:00:59):

with negotiations still ongoing.

Hovik (00:01:03):

And the opening phase of the war was not a limited strike,

Hovik (00:01:06):

it was a leadership decapitation campaign involving missile strikes,

Hovik (00:01:12):

some sources reporting the use of more than 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Hovik (00:01:17):

The strikes hit the supreme leader,

Hovik (00:01:20):

unfortunately martyring him,

Hovik (00:01:22):

his circle of leadership,

Hovik (00:01:25):

his daughter-in-law and his grandchildren.

Asbed (00:01:28):

Yeah.

Asbed (00:01:29):

Well, starting from day one, reports of mass civilian casualties have followed.

Asbed (00:01:33):

Iran and multiple outlets have reported strikes on a girls' elementary school in

Asbed (00:01:38):

Minab,

Asbed (00:01:39):

with the death toll reaching now reportedly 165.

Asbed (00:01:41):

And either way,

Asbed (00:01:43):

this is already being discussed as a major potential war crime case,

Asbed (00:01:47):

with commentators likening this to My Lai back in Vietnam,

Asbed (00:01:51):

1968.

Hovik (00:01:53):

And despite Trump warning Iran not to retaliate, Iran has responded across the region.

Hovik (00:02:00):

More than a dozen countries are now involved.

Hovik (00:02:03):

Primarily, U.S.

Hovik (00:02:05):

bases are at the crosshairs of Iran.

Hovik (00:02:10):

U.S. bases in the Gulf states, that is.

Hovik (00:02:12):

And even the USS Abraham Lincoln had to

Hovik (00:02:16):

be repositioned because it was being targeted by ballistic missiles Iran also

Hovik (00:02:21):

struck Israel of course um I mean overall the intensity of the attacks uh not just

Hovik (00:02:28):

at Israel but across the region seems to communicate some kind of a pacing so

Hovik (00:02:34):

they're not Iran is not all out unleashing all of its potential, but we

Hovik (00:02:40):

believe, I mean I believe that is more of a tactical choice rather than anything

Hovik (00:02:44):

else.

Hovik (00:02:46):

Now, needless to say the conflict is widening into a regional war with no clean off-ramp.

Asbed (00:02:53):

Yeah, yeah.

Asbed (00:02:54):

But Trump claimed the victory very early on,

Asbed (00:02:57):

praising the killing of Khamenei and other senior leaders.

Asbed (00:03:00):

He then said Iranians should take over their government.

Asbed (00:03:03):

I'm not sure exactly who he's talking to,

Asbed (00:03:05):

but he urged the Iranian security forces,

Asbed (00:03:08):

the IRGC,

Asbed (00:03:09):

to surrender,

Asbed (00:03:10):

offering them amnesty.

Asbed (00:03:11):

He said, basically, this is an offer that's open right now.

Asbed (00:03:14):

Later, it's going to be death.

Asbed (00:03:16):

But by day four, that's today.

Asbed (00:03:19):

And, you know, we're 12 hours behind the time zone in Iran.

Asbed (00:03:22):

The U.S.

Asbed (00:03:23):

has now confirmed many fatalities of its own.

Asbed (00:03:26):

It's reported a loss of at least three F-15s, I believe.

Asbed (00:03:29):

And we saw the destruction of multiple U.S.

Asbed (00:03:32):

bases, high value equipment, such as radar sites across the Middle East.

Asbed (00:03:38):

Hrant, although this conflict is being labeled as U.S.

Asbed (00:03:41):

and Israel versus Iran, is Iran perceiving the main enemy to be the U.S.

Asbed (00:03:46):

this time around?

Asbed (00:03:47):

What's the difference?

Hrant (00:03:49):

Yeah, it seems that this time Iran is striking US more than Israel.

Hrant (00:03:56):

And there are two reasons for that.

Hrant (00:03:58):

Of course, Iranians understand that the main driver of this conflict was Netanyahu himself,

Hrant (00:04:03):

again,

Hrant (00:04:04):

and Trump was kind of following more than the initiator.

Hrant (00:04:08):

But anyway,

Hrant (00:04:09):

the previous time in June 2025,

Hrant (00:04:13):

there were many,

Hrant (00:04:14):

many countries between Iran and Israel,

Hrant (00:04:16):

which were intercepting

Hrant (00:04:18):

Iranian rockets and did not let Iran to hit back, basically.

Hrant (00:04:25):

So very few of Iranian rockets were able to surpass all of those air defense

Hrant (00:04:33):

systems of Jordan,

Hrant (00:04:35):

Saudi Arabia,

Hrant (00:04:36):

Iraq and US,

Hrant (00:04:39):

France and

Hrant (00:04:42):

and the UK, which were deployed on Navy, and then some other countries of Gulf Basin.

Hrant (00:04:50):

So anyway, I think that this time Iran decided to hit back directly to the U.S.

Hrant (00:04:56):

bases and to the U.S.

Hrant (00:05:00):

Middle Eastern allies.

Hrant (00:05:02):

Now,

Hrant (00:05:03):

regarding some statements in the introduction which you have made,

Hrant (00:05:10):

I would like to comment a bit.

Hrant (00:05:13):

First, regarding the decapitation strike.

Hrant (00:05:16):

On the second day, Israel has stated that they have killed 48 of major Iranian leaders.

Hrant (00:05:25):

This was not confirmed by Iranian side, but was not rejected either.

Hrant (00:05:30):

Moreover,

Hrant (00:05:31):

today there were some reports that Israel has killed a newly appointed Iranian

Hrant (00:05:40):

defense minister and also the Council of Experts,

Hrant (00:05:43):

or Ulema,

Hrant (00:05:45):

which have gathered together to elect a new supreme leader.

Hrant (00:05:50):

and if if that strike was successful that is a very major strike against the

Hrant (00:05:57):

Iranian political system because council of experts is something different

Hrant (00:06:04):

different you cannot find this kind of authority in in many other countries but

Hrant (00:06:11):

this council is appointing appointing the key

Hrant (00:06:16):

people in the country, especially the supreme leader himself, and is above the parliament.

Hrant (00:06:22):

The major area of attack is just the personal leadership of Iran,

Hrant (00:06:28):

and they are trying to kill as many people as possible.

Hrant (00:06:33):

And while

Hrant (00:06:35):

Let's say second echelon, third echelon of leaders is being replaced.

Hrant (00:06:40):

They want to bring it down to the level where Iran is no more governed successfully.

Hrant (00:06:49):

So I think the risk for Iranian political system is really high.

Hrant (00:06:54):

I would not understate it.

Hrant (00:06:56):

Regarding the goal,

Hrant (00:06:57):

it's obvious that they are trying to destroy Iranian political system,

Hrant (00:07:01):

and there are high suspicions that there is also a policy of disintegrating Iran,

Hrant (00:07:08):

which would be a major threat for Armenia too,

Hrant (00:07:11):

because there is a risk then that the second Azerbaijan will appear.

Hrant (00:07:16):

Although Iranian Azerbaijanis are definitely not the same as Baku Azerbaijanis,

Hrant (00:07:20):

but if there is no more Iranian authority,

Hrant (00:07:23):

then Turkey and Azerbaijan will indoctrinate them.

Hrant (00:07:26):

So there is such threat.

Hrant (00:07:29):

Another thing is that I also would,

Hrant (00:07:32):

I would not completely agree that Iranians are not using all of their potential.

Hrant (00:07:37):

I think now they are using all of their potential.

Hrant (00:07:40):

To the contrary of Russians,

Hrant (00:07:42):

who are not really using all of their potential,

Hrant (00:07:46):

Iranians are doing that.

Hrant (00:07:48):

And they have hit even, or at least they have targeted U.S.,

Hrant (00:07:54):

air force carrier so they are hitting whatever they can and of course their

Hrant (00:08:03):

possibilities and their capacity is limited also because of the size of coalition

Hrant (00:08:11):

which is fighting against them and then they have internal clash we have seen how

Hrant (00:08:18):

us and Israel have been targeting

Hrant (00:08:21):

conservative leaders,

Hrant (00:08:22):

while,

Hrant (00:08:23):

let's say,

Hrant (00:08:24):

reformists or liberals,

Hrant (00:08:28):

including, for example,

Hrant (00:08:29):

Pezeshkian or Araghchi,

Hrant (00:08:31):

were intact.

Hrant (00:08:32):

So,

Hrant (00:08:33):

obviously,

Hrant (00:08:34):

they are trying to affect Iranian political leadership the way that the composition

Hrant (00:08:40):

of Iranian leadership is changing.

Hrant (00:08:43):

So I think, as of now, it's a highly undecided situation.

Hrant (00:08:48):

On one hand,

Hrant (00:08:49):

U.S.

Hrant (00:08:50):

is also in very difficult situation.

Hrant (00:08:53):

If U.S.

Hrant (00:08:54):

will lose, and this war cannot take forever,

Hrant (00:08:57):

it cannot be like Russia-Ukraine war,

Hrant (00:09:01):

it can take only one to two months.

Hrant (00:09:04):

Otherwise, the rockets will be exhausted, the rockets' deposits.

Hrant (00:09:09):

But at the same time, the stakes are very high.

Hrant (00:09:14):

If Trump loses,

Hrant (00:09:15):

And if Iran's defense is successful and Iran preserves its political system and

Hrant (00:09:22):

Iran preserves most of its capacity,

Hrant (00:09:24):

including,

Hrant (00:09:25):

by the way, nuclear capacity,

Hrant (00:09:27):

which now becomes more and more important,

Hrant (00:09:29):

then I think Trump has high chance of losing elections in November and even impeachment.

Hrant (00:09:35):

Because in this case,

Hrant (00:09:37):

there will be a landslide victory for Democrats because Trump is increasingly

Hrant (00:09:44):

unpopular day after day and especially after this war.

Hrant (00:09:50):

So I think the stakes are very high, both for Trump, for Netanyahu and for Iranian leadership.

Hrant (00:09:55):

And that is why I don't think anyone will step back.

Hrant (00:10:01):

So the war will be very intense and hopefully not very many people will

Hrant (00:10:09):

We'll face the consequences, but we see that number is growing.

Hrant (00:10:12):

And of course, the crime against girls is awful.

Hrant (00:10:18):

Although I don't think, frankly speaking, that they were directly targeted.

Hrant (00:10:21):

It's just collateral damage.

Hrant (00:10:23):

But at the same time, it's still very horrible.

Hovik (00:10:27):

And it still does not absolve the aggressors who started.

Hovik (00:10:31):

But Hrant,

Hovik (00:10:32):

I want to ask you,

Hovik (00:10:33):

I mean,

Hovik (00:10:35):

I'm not sure how much you're tracking the details of this military engagement,

Hovik (00:10:38):

but what do you think about Iran's,

Hovik (00:10:42):

this so-called mosaic defense strategy where

Hovik (00:10:47):

Basically,

Hovik (00:10:48):

apparently they have predetermined plans on how to act so that in case central

Hovik (00:10:55):

leadership is destroyed or there is no connection with the central headquarters per

Hovik (00:11:01):

se,

Hovik (00:11:02):

independent units within Iran can still operate.

Hovik (00:11:06):

Do you think that is working successfully?

Hovik (00:11:11):

Do you think that will be sufficient for Iran to survive this onslaught?

Hrant (00:11:19):

Well, as of now,

Hrant (00:11:20):

it is obviously working successfully because Iranian leadership was hit to the

Hrant (00:11:28):

extent that very few countries can survive.

Hrant (00:11:31):

At least very few political systems can survive already.

Hrant (00:11:35):

And it's still maintaining effective governance.

Hrant (00:11:38):

So at least as of now, we can say it is working.

Hrant (00:11:42):

But again, what I want to say is that the number of people who are targeted is growing.

Hrant (00:11:48):

And how many people will be successfully targeted after one month,

Hrant (00:11:51):

after two months of this aggression,

Hrant (00:11:53):

we don't know.

Hrant (00:11:55):

That is why I would not say that if Iran is standing now, it will stand forever.

Hrant (00:12:01):

We don't know, hopefully, but not sure.

Hrant (00:12:05):

And regarding the military situation,

Hrant (00:12:08):

I want to urge that I'm not a military expert per se,

Hrant (00:12:12):

although I'm following all the developments and trying to,

Hrant (00:12:15):

you know,

Hrant (00:12:16):

assess all the news we are facing.

Asbed (00:12:21):

Many European leaders have explicitly cast aside international law,

Asbed (00:12:25):

which they talked about at the World Economic Forum in Davos,

Asbed (00:12:29):

and they've lined up to support this illegal war on Iran.

Asbed (00:12:33):

So we've seen that the United States is getting support from European leaders and

Asbed (00:12:37):

others who don't actually have to do the fighting.

Asbed (00:12:41):

The UK has lined up behind them, allowing them to use bases for attacks on Iran.

Asbed (00:12:46):

What does Iran have as far as international support goes?

Asbed (00:12:50):

What can Russia and China do and are they doing enough?

Hrant (00:12:55):

That's a very good question.

Hrant (00:12:56):

At this point, neither Russia nor

Hrant (00:12:59):

China have stated direct support towards Iran,

Hrant (00:13:04):

and especially they did not name the persecutors of the attack.

Hrant (00:13:08):

So, for example,

Hrant (00:13:09):

Russians have stated that they condemned the aggression,

Hrant (00:13:12):

but they did not say whose aggression do they condemn.

Hrant (00:13:16):

And this is, in this case, I think very important.

Hrant (00:13:19):

And in reality, being, you know, direct in such cases, it is important.

Hrant (00:13:26):

And if you do not name who is perpetrator of the attack,

Hrant (00:13:30):

I think you cannot support.

Hrant (00:13:31):

Aside from diplomatic support,

Hrant (00:13:33):

military and political support,

Hrant (00:13:35):

especially military support or technical support,

Hrant (00:13:39):

Well, at this time, at this stage, I don't see that either, frankly speaking.

Hrant (00:13:44):

And especially,

Hrant (00:13:45):

yeah, we understand the constraints Russia has,

Hrant (00:13:48):

but Chinese do not have any constraints.

Hrant (00:13:52):

I mean, they have all the equipment they can afford, and I don't see how do they support Iran.

Hrant (00:14:00):

Maybe it will take several days,

Hrant (00:14:02):

but I think they should have already started if they have such intention.

Hrant (00:14:07):

Maybe they are trying to assess if Iran is capable of surviving and then start

Hrant (00:14:14):

supplying,

Hrant (00:14:15):

which is likely,

Hrant (00:14:16):

but this is very,

Hrant (00:14:18):

for them,

Hrant (00:14:19):

it is a very suspicious strategy.

Hrant (00:14:22):

Because in reality, if Iran collapses, then I think we need to be very exact here.

Hrant (00:14:29):

All the talks about multipolarity,

Hrant (00:14:31):

about BRICS,

Hrant (00:14:32):

about Chiang Kai organization,

Hrant (00:14:34):

about all of that is nonsense.

Hrant (00:14:37):

If Iran collapses, all of that is gone.

Hrant (00:14:40):

Because Iran is a very important front of global geopolitical clash in southwestern Asia.

Hrant (00:14:50):

And Iran was the weakest point in all that anti-Western,

Hrant (00:14:56):

I cannot say alliance,

Hrant (00:14:57):

but axis,

Hrant (00:14:58):

let's say.

Hrant (00:15:00):

Because Northern Korea is smaller, of course, than Iran, but you cannot hit Northern Korea.

Hrant (00:15:06):

And Iran is very vulnerable, both internally and externally.

Hrant (00:15:11):

And that is why I think Iran is the weakest point here.

Hrant (00:15:15):

And if they do not support its weakest point,

Hrant (00:15:17):

and if Russians and Chinese do the same as they did with Venezuela,

Hrant (00:15:29):

no reaction,

Hrant (00:15:30):

then Iran will be in a very difficult position.

Hrant (00:15:36):

And it will be very hard to maintain Iranian position.

Hrant (00:15:39):

But if,

Hrant (00:15:40):

anyway, if Iran is successful in maintaining its political system,

Hrant (00:15:45):

then its negotiating position versus Russians and Chinese will also improve.

Hrant (00:15:53):

But then there is another question.

Hrant (00:15:55):

Are Eastern civilizations able to act collectively as a coalition?

Hrant (00:16:04):

And basically what we are observing, they are not able.

Hrant (00:16:07):

Their political cultures are very isolationists, both of Iran, both of Chinese and Russians.

Hrant (00:16:16):

And that is why they are not able to cooperate, even Iranians.

Hrant (00:16:22):

Lately, they have understood that they need deeper integration.

Hrant (00:16:25):

There have been many visits, but it was only during last month.

Hrant (00:16:31):

So I think there are two major issues of so-called Eastern Bloc,

Hrant (00:16:37):

let's say Eastern or Eastern Axis versus Western Bloc.

Hrant (00:16:41):

Western bloc is very efficient in time management because time in this matter of

Hrant (00:16:46):

geopolitical moment is the most important resource.

Hrant (00:16:50):

And we see how Israel, U.S.

Hrant (00:16:53):

value time and how Russians do not value time.

Hrant (00:16:57):

When we hear when, for example, Russian presidents...

Hrant (00:17:02):

envoy to negotiations with Ukraine says we have fought Swedes in 18th century for

Hrant (00:17:09):

21 years and we can go on with that now as well.

Hrant (00:17:15):

I mean, this is nonsense.

Hrant (00:17:16):

And at the same time, they do not value resources and they do not value coalitions.

Hrant (00:17:21):

So how they will be able to

Hrant (00:17:24):

to maintain their increasing integration in BRICS and so on.

Hrant (00:17:29):

I'm not sure because if Iran collapses, then U.S.

Hrant (00:17:34):

has very strong bet on unipolarity because the nature of fight is to keep unipolarity.

Hrant (00:17:42):

because Americans now are facing several internal and financial crisis and if they

Hrant (00:17:48):

are not maintaining unipolarity that means that they will have a deep financial

Hrant (00:17:54):

crisis a couple of years ahead now they need to rob the whole world and with this

Hrant (00:18:00):

is exactly what trump is trying to do to to keep their political and financial

Hrant (00:18:05):

system alive

Hrant (00:18:07):

And that is why I want everyone to understand that there is a deep rationale behind

Hrant (00:18:12):

Trump's actions.

Hrant (00:18:14):

Of course, they are not lawful, but they are, you know, rational.

Hrant (00:18:18):

It's not completely rational.

Hrant (00:18:20):

But then there is another question, how rational are his opponents?

Hrant (00:18:24):

And I do not see that.

Asbed (00:18:25):

Well, the geopolitics is very important, as you mentioned here.

Asbed (00:18:29):

Is it important enough for Trump,

Asbed (00:18:31):

who has been talking about four or five weeks of an engagement here,

Asbed (00:18:35):

that his secretary of war,

Asbed (00:18:38):

I was going to say defense minister,

Asbed (00:18:39):

but it's actually a secretary of war,

Asbed (00:18:41):

Pete Hexet,

Asbed (00:18:42):

has decided that he's not going to rule out troops on the ground?

Asbed (00:18:47):

Is the United States ready to put troops on the ground in Iran?

Asbed (00:18:52):

Has Trump miscalculated the complexity of what he has initiated here?

Asbed (00:18:57):

Because we're hearing that he's also talking to the Kurds in Iraq and trying to

Asbed (00:19:01):

engage them in some kind of a,

Asbed (00:19:04):

dare I say, invasion of Iranian territory.

Hrant (00:19:09):

Yes,

Hrant (00:19:10):

we have seen reports how just a month ago or even less,

Hrant (00:19:14):

how Americans are preparing Iranian Kurds to military clashes with Iranian

Hrant (00:19:20):

authorities.

Hrant (00:19:21):

So I don't know if Kurds will listen to Americans because they have faced the

Hrant (00:19:26):

consequences in Syria,

Hrant (00:19:28):

but I would not rule out that as well.

Hrant (00:19:31):

Now, the question is, in which conditions Americans might attack?

Hrant (00:19:37):

For example, if they attack now,

Hrant (00:19:39):

then they will fail and it will be a complete disaster for them.

Hrant (00:19:47):

But they can attack if their political system starts to collapse in Iran.

Hrant (00:19:53):

So if Iranian political system is working,

Hrant (00:19:58):

even in modular way, as you have mentioned, then they have no chance in Iran.

Hrant (00:20:04):

Iran is not Iraq, and we have seen that as well right now.

Hrant (00:20:07):

I mean, there is no comparison between Iraq in 2003 and Iran right now.

Hrant (00:20:13):

But at the same time, if the political system collapses,

Hrant (00:20:17):

then they are free to go in reality, because resistance will not be unified.

Hrant (00:20:22):

And if there is no unified resistance, then they can attack.

Hrant (00:20:25):

And by the way, we have seen that Israel is organizing mobilization.

Hrant (00:20:31):

And frankly speaking, for this...

Hrant (00:20:35):

war of you know ballistic missiles they do not need any mobilization right so i

Hrant (00:20:41):

would not rule out the boots on the ground on one hand we can say that it is

Hrant (00:20:45):

disaster and by the way the head of black waters has warned trump yesterday if I'm

Hrant (00:20:51):

not mistaken that it would be the worst thing he can do, but at the same time from

Hrant (00:20:56):

what we can see I would not exclude that.

Hovik (00:20:59):

Hrant,

Hovik (00:21:00):

when they're talking about boots on the ground,

Hovik (00:21:02):

it seems like everyone is beating around the bush.

Hovik (00:21:05):

Some are saying Saudi Arabia, others are pointing the finger at Kurds.

Hovik (00:21:12):

Meanwhile, NATO has its second largest army right next to Iran.

Hovik (00:21:19):

Now, I understand that the Turks would not be,

Hovik (00:21:22):

again, like you're saying,

Hovik (00:21:23):

they would not be so crazy as to attack Iran while it's still capable of putting on

Hovik (00:21:31):

a centrally coordinated defense.

Hovik (00:21:34):

but if things deteriorate even further why isn't anyone talking about the threat

Hovik (00:21:40):

from actually Turkish involvement which if anything for instance they have a

Hovik (00:21:47):

alliance with Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan has been providing bases to for Israel to

Hovik (00:21:52):

attack Iran already now that could escalate there are multiple ways that I see the

Hovik (00:21:57):

Turks

Hovik (00:21:59):

being directly involved and I believe that some of their leadership at least has

Hovik (00:22:05):

grand designs on northern Iran, where am I wrong to think about like

Hrant (00:22:12):

this well on one hand they definitely have plans on northern Iran

Hrant (00:22:20):

And it would be stupidity to say no,

Hrant (00:22:23):

because since Turkey is unofficially pan-Turkistic state,

Hrant (00:22:29):

so it's one of the foundations of ideology of Turkish Republic,

Hrant (00:22:35):

and it's a policy which Turkey is pursuing very actively,

Hrant (00:22:40):

I think it would be stupidity to think that they are not waiting for that moment.

Hrant (00:22:46):

On one hand,

Hrant (00:22:48):

I mean, it's not so much about Iran,

Hrant (00:22:51):

but it's all about,

Hrant (00:22:53):

gathering everything possible and everyone possible who can be thrown into this

Hrant (00:22:57):

pan-Turkistic alliance.

Hrant (00:22:59):

And, you know, Turkic population of Iran is rather big.

Hrant (00:23:03):

Not as big as they like to say.

Hrant (00:23:05):

I mean, a number of Iranian Azerbaijanis

Hrant (00:23:09):

is likely between 9 and 15 millions, probably towards 12, 13 millions.

Hrant (00:23:17):

But so it's by far less than what they usually say in Azerbaijan.

Hrant (00:23:24):

They usually say 30, 40 millions.

Hrant (00:23:26):

I don't know. But at the same time, it's still a rather big number.

Hrant (00:23:30):

And it is significant.

Hrant (00:23:32):

And also geographically,

Hrant (00:23:33):

it's significant because it can connect Azerbaijan and Turkey south of Armenia.

Asbed (00:23:39):

It's a direct bridge, basically.

Hrant (00:23:41):

Yeah.

Hrant (00:23:42):

And not even like the corridor they want to get on the Armenian territory,

Hrant (00:23:47):

but the full-fledged connection.

Hrant (00:23:51):

Now, that's on one hand.

Hrant (00:23:52):

On another hand,

Hrant (00:23:54):

I can say, and I will not be hesitant to say that Erdogan's strategy is very smart.

Hrant (00:24:00):

He is not going to engage in this attack.

Hrant (00:24:05):

Maybe only in the case if he will be sure that Iran is collapsing completely.

Hrant (00:24:11):

Because he even did not participate in US attack on Iraq.

Hrant (00:24:16):

Although after Iraq has collapsed,

Hrant (00:24:19):

he has infiltrated with his military presence in northern Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan.

Hrant (00:24:28):

So they have around 50 military bases there, or maybe small bases, but still.

Hrant (00:24:34):

Now, regarding the Iranian case,

Hrant (00:24:39):

They know obviously that Americans and some Europeans would like and obviously

Hrant (00:24:44):

Israelis want Iran to collapse and they understand that they have to gain there

Hrant (00:24:50):

because Iran is pure competitor of Turkey and not only now but since Middle Ages

Hrant (00:24:58):

and they have been rivals in this region and now since both Iran and Turkey have

Hrant (00:25:05):

strengthened

Hrant (00:25:07):

Collapse of Iran would be a major indirect victory for Turkey because one of

Hrant (00:25:13):

rebels... Do nothing and win.

Hrant (00:25:15):

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Hrant (00:25:16):

So they are lucky right now.

Hrant (00:25:19):

And by the way,

Hrant (00:25:20):

I think that one of the reasons why Azerbaijan got some external support for their

Hrant (00:25:27):

aggression against Artsakh was Iranian factor because aggression against Artsakh,

Hrant (00:25:31):

I also view in this way.

Hrant (00:25:32):

I mean, it's not only about Iran, but...

Hovik (00:25:39):

So aggression against Artsakh, support of Israel.

Hovik (00:25:43):

At one point,

Hovik (00:25:44):

Iran would have to retaliate if Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:25:47):

for instance, hypothetically continues to provide a base for Israeli attacks against Iran,

Hovik (00:25:53):

like in the current round of the fighting.

Hovik (00:25:55):

So in that case, do you think that Turkey would still try to not get involved?

Asbed (00:26:02):

Well, the two countries have a defense alliance that they signed in Shushi some years ago.

Asbed (00:26:09):

So that an attack on one would be an attack on both.

Asbed (00:26:12):

And so that might legally engage Turkey on the side of Azerbaijan and against Iran.

Hrant (00:26:18):

Of course, if Turkey decides that they are going to engage.

Hrant (00:26:23):

I mean, it...

Hrant (00:26:25):

I mean, Turks will not look at the papers.

Hrant (00:26:28):

If they decide it is a good time to invade, they will.

Hrant (00:26:32):

If they decide it's not a good time, they will tell Azerbaijanis that this is not the case.

Hrant (00:26:38):

Now, yeah, I mean, but basically Iran also views them in the same package.

Hrant (00:26:44):

Because if we look at the geography of these attacks,

Hrant (00:26:48):

I think if there was no Turkey,

Hrant (00:26:50):

Azerbaijan would also be attacked.

Hovik (00:26:52):

Mm-hmm.

Hrant (00:26:52):

But if there was no Turkey, Azerbaijani politics would be completely different.

Hrant (00:26:56):

That is also very important.

Hrant (00:26:58):

I mean, the first military alliance they have signed was in 2010.

Hrant (00:27:03):

And then they reaffirmed and deepened it in Shushi in 2021.

Hrant (00:27:08):

So basically, the first military alliance was a base for attack against Armenia and Artsakh.

Hrant (00:27:13):

Now, regarding the Azerbaijani and Turkish case, I think they will just wait until

Hrant (00:27:21):

until the fruit will be ready itself.

Hrant (00:27:24):

And maybe only then they will attack.

Hrant (00:27:26):

And now Azerbaijan.

Hrant (00:27:28):

Look,

Hrant (00:27:29):

if Iran is so overstretched,

Hrant (00:27:31):

which is likely to happen,

Hrant (00:27:33):

then Iran will not be able to pose significant damage to Azerbaijan,

Hrant (00:27:37):

which is also very important.

Hrant (00:27:39):

So I think that...

Hrant (00:27:42):

Both Azerbaijan and Turkey will wait.

Hrant (00:27:46):

And then again,

Hrant (00:27:48):

it's very important to which extent and how long Iran will be capable of defending

Hrant (00:27:53):

itself because,

Hrant (00:27:54):

yeah,

Hrant (00:27:57):

the threat, the direct military threat is not as big,

Hrant (00:27:59):

but threat towards political system is huge.

Hovik (00:28:04):

Yeah, Hrant,

Hovik (00:28:05):

coming to Armenia and trying to be serious about what's going on,

Hovik (00:28:12):

as the war against Asbed,

Hovik (00:28:14):

I'm going to ask you a question.

Hovik (00:28:15):

As the war against Iran was raging, what was Armenia's top leadership doing, in your opinion?

Asbed (00:28:22):

I thought you wanted to be serious, Hovik.

Hovik (00:28:25):

I mean, yes.

Hovik (00:28:27):

I mean, assume you haven't seen any of the social media.

Asbed (00:28:30):

If I were going to be president of Armenia, I'd be holding a security council meeting.

Asbed (00:28:34):

Did they do that?

Hovik (00:28:36):

Wrong. They were campaigning across Armenia on this ridiculous campaign bus,

Hovik (00:28:42):

eating piroshki on day number one of the Iran war.

Hovik (00:28:47):

And on day number two, I think their menu was corn on the cob.

Hovik (00:28:52):

Pashinyan was accompanied by all of the Civil Contract almost top brass,

Hovik (00:28:57):

including Alen Simonyan and Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan.

Hovik (00:29:02):

That's right.

Hovik (00:29:03):

That's right.

Hrant (00:29:03):

I remember that.

Asbed (00:29:07):

And while many countries were instructing their citizens about how to seek safety

Asbed (00:29:12):

and calling their citizens to evacuate,

Asbed (00:29:14):

the only announcement that we got from the MFA was,

Asbed (00:29:18):

I think during the first day,

Asbed (00:29:20):

it was monitoring the situation very closely.

Asbed (00:29:23):

Okay, whatever that really means.

Asbed (00:29:26):

And even yesterday,

Asbed (00:29:27):

which was the third day,

Asbed (00:29:28):

they were saying that there is no information on the status of Armenian citizens in

Asbed (00:29:32):

Iran,

Asbed (00:29:33):

if you can believe that.

Hovik (00:29:34):

Now, folks, I mean, it doesn't get more ridiculous than this.

Hovik (00:29:38):

Just imagine a major regional war,

Hovik (00:29:41):

missiles flying everywhere,

Hovik (00:29:43):

and Armenian leadership is on a campaign bus taking selfies and eating fast food

Hovik (00:29:49):

without a care in the world.

Hovik (00:29:51):

That is literally...

Hovik (00:29:53):

the Armenia of today.

Hovik (00:29:54):

Many countries also send condolences to Iran,

Hovik (00:29:58):

whether it is about the massacre,

Hovik (00:30:02):

I mean,

Hovik (00:30:03):

the reprehensible massacre of the schoolgirls,

Hovik (00:30:06):

or the assassination of the spiritual leader of Iran,

Hovik (00:30:11):

Khamenei.

Hovik (00:30:13):

Armenia was nowhere to be seen in the first three days.

Asbed (00:30:18):

Yeah, even Azerbaijan actually sent condolences.

Asbed (00:30:23):

You know, finally,

Asbed (00:30:24):

Armenia sent some condolences,

Asbed (00:30:26):

I think yesterday,

Asbed (00:30:27):

or rather today in time zone differences,

Asbed (00:30:30):

basically on day four,

Asbed (00:30:32):

which was pathetic,

Asbed (00:30:33):

to be honest.

Hovik (00:30:35):

So, Hrant,

Hovik (00:30:37):

given the assassination of Khamenei,

Hovik (00:30:40):

and we as Groong would offer our condolences to the Iranian people,

Hovik (00:30:47):

I think this was a huge loss,

Hovik (00:30:49):

and can you give us a glimpse of Iran's policy towards Armenia under Khamenei's

Hovik (00:30:55):

leadership?

Hrant (00:30:56):

Well, it's a very complex situation because right now there is a division in Iran towards

Hrant (00:31:02):

this issue,

Hrant (00:31:04):

and

Hrant (00:31:05):

Let me start with the Armenian government's reaction.

Hrant (00:31:10):

At least on the third or fourth day,

Hrant (00:31:12):

they have reacted and they send their condolences towards Iranian people and

Hrant (00:31:21):

concerning the death or killing of Iranian supreme leader,

Hrant (00:31:27):

which is at least better later than never.

Hrant (00:31:32):

But,

Hrant (00:31:33):

and also,

Hrant (00:31:34):

which is also very important,

Hrant (00:31:35):

and I want this to be understood properly,

Hrant (00:31:40):

that if,

Hrant (00:31:42):

and this chance is not zero,

Hrant (00:31:44):

if Iran loses,

Hrant (00:31:46):

then Armenia's pro-Iranian stance can be very,

Hrant (00:31:50):

very dangerous.

Hrant (00:31:52):

That is why I think Armenia now needs to keep low profile on one hand,

Hrant (00:31:57):

and on another hand,

Hrant (00:31:59):

needs to be preparing for

Hrant (00:32:01):

Now, regarding the Armenian-Iranian relationship,

Hrant (00:32:05):

I think that Armenian-Iranian relationship has started developing very intensively

Hrant (00:32:12):

after the 2020 war,

Hrant (00:32:14):

because Iranians understood that they have lost time,

Hrant (00:32:17):

and while Turks were preparing for jumping into the South Caucasus region and

Hrant (00:32:22):

including the northern border of Iran,

Hrant (00:32:25):

Iranians were, you know, busy with other issues, let's say.

Hrant (00:32:29):

And when they have seen that in the war of 2020,

Hrant (00:32:33):

of Azerbaijan against Artsakh.

Hrant (00:32:35):

The main direction of attack was Artsakh-Iranian border.

Hrant (00:32:42):

And that was by far the main direction of attack,

Hrant (00:32:46):

which brings us to the conclusion that there was this significant geopolitical

Hrant (00:32:51):

context.

Hrant (00:32:52):

And of course,

Hrant (00:32:53):

after that,

Hrant (00:32:54):

Iranians started realizing that they need strong and sustainable Armenia.

Hrant (00:33:01):

But frankly speaking,

Hrant (00:33:02):

they were late because Armenia was more and more falling under the influence of

Hrant (00:33:09):

Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Hrant (00:33:11):

And we are seeing how right now Armenian leadership is even repeating all the

Hrant (00:33:18):

Azerbaijani and Turkish narratives.

Hrant (00:33:21):

which is already indicating indirect control.

Hrant (00:33:25):

Now,

Hrant (00:33:26):

Iranian leadership was,

Hrant (00:33:28):

in 2021,

Hrant (00:33:29):

they were ready to hit back when Azerbaijanis have occupied some territories

Hrant (00:33:37):

between Armenia's Syunik province and occupied Artsakh territory.

Hrant (00:33:42):

where the major road connecting Armenia and Iran was passing, the Goriskapan Road.

Hrant (00:33:49):

So Azerbaijan found some small plots on this road,

Hrant (00:33:54):

which were under Soviet time,

Hrant (00:33:55):

under Soviet-Azerbaijani control on the map,

Hrant (00:33:59):

and they occupied it,

Hrant (00:34:01):

and Iranians were ready to hit back militarily.

Hrant (00:34:05):

Pashinyan has told them that, you know, it's Azerbaijani land, give it up.

Hrant (00:34:11):

That happened in September 2021.

Hrant (00:34:14):

And after that,

Hrant (00:34:15):

Iranians have held the military exercise near the border of Azerbaijan,

Hrant (00:34:20):

very big military exercise.

Hrant (00:34:23):

And they have started lots of, you know, negotiation tracks with Armenia.

Hrant (00:34:29):

which were to some extent successful, but to some extent they failed.

Hrant (00:34:35):

And at this point,

Hrant (00:34:38):

there is another issue that sites came close to conduct a joint military exercise.

Hrant (00:34:44):

But there is a question whether this military exercise will be joint or simultaneous.

Hrant (00:34:50):

because we have already had one simultaneous military exercise when Iranians were

Hrant (00:34:54):

exercising on their part of the border,

Hrant (00:34:57):

on their side,

Hrant (00:34:58):

and Armenians on their side.

Hrant (00:34:59):

And the same, by the way, Iranians have held with Azerbaijan.

Hrant (00:35:03):

So there is a question how deep Armenia can go,

Hrant (00:35:07):

but it's not a job because if Iranian side loses,

Hrant (00:35:12):

then for Armenia,

Hrant (00:35:13):

it will be a complete disaster.

Hrant (00:35:14):

So it is a constraint towards the depth of relations with Iran.

Hovik (00:35:19):

But I want to underscore,

Hovik (00:35:20):

Hrant,

Hovik (00:35:21):

I want to underscore that Iran was the only country in the region that was willing

Hovik (00:35:26):

to commit military forces at this crucial time for Armenia.

Hovik (00:35:30):

And I believe that the reason that there weren't any joint military exercises or

Hovik (00:35:36):

any deeper military integration was because of the Armenian side,

Hovik (00:35:41):

at least according to previous guests that we've had on the show,

Hovik (00:35:45):

like, for instance,

Hovik (00:35:46):

Ehsan Movahedian,

Hovik (00:35:48):

has said that Iran would be ready uh to commit to a deeper military relationship uh

Hovik (00:35:54):

except that armenia was you know pushing you know maintaining its distance well

Hrant (00:35:59):

frankly speaking it was not only armenia in reality Iran also has a very difficult

Hrant (00:36:05):

bureaucracy and in reality in Iran there are also many

Hrant (00:36:10):

pro-Western and pro-Turkish people in the government who are blocking any

Hrant (00:36:14):

Iranian-Armenian initiatives.

Hrant (00:36:16):

I think we need to speak about this openly as well.

Hrant (00:36:20):

Now, regarding the Armenian side,

Hrant (00:36:21):

we need to understand that Armenia is highly influenced by the West and the Turks.

Hrant (00:36:26):

So it's not only Armenian decisions and not so much about Armenian decisions,

Hrant (00:36:30):

but it's about influence.

Hrant (00:36:32):

And, you know, given that Armenia is small and

Hrant (00:36:36):

you know,

Hrant (00:36:37):

Armenian sovereignty is under question right now,

Hrant (00:36:39):

frankly speaking,

Hrant (00:36:41):

this is understandable.

Hrant (00:36:42):

So it's not so much about Armenian side,

Hrant (00:36:46):

it's more about,

Hrant (00:36:47):

you know, geopolitical context when Armenia is gradually losing its sovereignty and having

Hrant (00:36:53):

deeply

Hrant (00:36:55):

and highly developing military relations with someone is a sign of high level of sovereignty.

Hrant (00:37:02):

So there is a contradiction between current Armenian geopolitical position and the

Hrant (00:37:07):

needs of this alliance,

Hrant (00:37:09):

let's say.

Hrant (00:37:10):

And again,

Hrant (00:37:11):

one side is why Armenian leadership did not want to deepen relations with Iran to

Hrant (00:37:16):

the extent,

Hrant (00:37:17):

you know, because it can anger the West or maybe not even anger,

Hrant (00:37:21):

but it can

Hrant (00:37:22):

but the West will not like it or maybe the West told them not to do so but another

Hrant (00:37:27):

thing is that if Iran really loses and Armenia cannot prevent it let's be objective

Hrant (00:37:33):

here then for Armenia the situation might worsen significantly that is why I think

Hrant (00:37:38):

right now Armenia needs to

Hrant (00:37:41):

to stay low.

Hrant (00:37:42):

Now,

Hrant (00:37:43):

on the other side,

Hrant (00:37:44):

again,

Hrant (00:37:45):

we can say that the Iranian side has several times stated since 2021 or even since

Hrant (00:37:51):

2020, because when Azerbaijanis on October 2020 have reached

Hrant (00:38:02):

reached Nrnadzor in southern part of Armenia,

Hrant (00:38:08):

then Iranian side has stated that they support territorial integrity of every South

Hrant (00:38:15):

Caucasian nation.

Hrant (00:38:18):

And many in Armenia thought that they mean that they support Azerbaijan territorial

Hrant (00:38:22):

integrity,

Hrant (00:38:23):

because in Armenia,

Hrant (00:38:24):

people did not know how deep Azerbaijan has went towards Artsakh Republic south.

Hrant (00:38:31):

But in reality, it was sign of support of Armenia.

Hrant (00:38:35):

And since then, Iranian side has stated that multiple times.

Hrant (00:38:40):

And that was one of the main constraints of Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia.

Hrant (00:38:45):

Because if we compare situation to the 1920,

Hrant (00:38:50):

the Armenian policy,

Hrant (00:38:51):

the geopolitical context was very similar to 2020.

Hrant (00:38:56):

But the Iranian factor, which was absent 100 years ago, is present right now.

Hrant (00:39:01):

So here we see the change.

Hrant (00:39:03):

But the question is,

Hrant (00:39:06):

not even just now,

Hrant (00:39:07):

but maybe a year ago,

Hrant (00:39:08):

for example,

Hrant (00:39:09):

was in reality Iran ready to get involved?

Hrant (00:39:13):

And no one knows the answer.

Hrant (00:39:15):

That is why Azerbaijan did not attack.

Hrant (00:39:17):

But that is also a reason why Armenia was very hesitant to make any sharp moves, because

Hrant (00:39:24):

you never know will Iran get involved and or no and we have been asking all of the

Hrant (00:39:30):

Iranian experts we have been contacting and no one knew among them as well so

Hrant (00:39:36):

that's as Americans like to say strategic ambiguity but when you draw a long-term

Hrant (00:39:42):

policy you you need to have some clear vision of what you can do and for example

Hrant (00:39:48):

turks and Azerbaijanis do have, and Armenians do not have.

Hrant (00:39:51):

So that's not only about this government,

Hrant (00:39:52):

but also about objective situation,

Hrant (00:39:54):

which is here in the region,

Hrant (00:39:56):

especially given that Russia has withdrawn from this region.

Hrant (00:40:02):

So in fact, Russia is not present here, only some inertia of presence.

Hrant (00:40:08):

Maybe, maybe if or when Ukrainian war will end,

Hrant (00:40:11):

some things will start to change,

Hrant (00:40:13):

but it doesn't seem that the Russians are hurrying up.

Hrant (00:40:16):

So on the one hand, Iranian Supreme Leader was pushing towards

Hrant (00:40:20):

deeper relations between Armenia and Iran.

Hrant (00:40:23):

And that is obvious.

Hrant (00:40:25):

But on the other hand,

Hrant (00:40:26):

there were many constraints,

Hrant (00:40:27):

both in Iran,

Hrant (00:40:28):

in Armenia,

Hrant (00:40:29):

on the geopolitical level and on capacities of Armenia and Iran as well.

Hrant (00:40:35):

So I think the situation is very unclear and especially unclear right now.

Hrant (00:40:40):

And we need,

Hrant (00:40:42):

as Armenians, we need to wait to see what will happen after one month or two months and see what

Hrant (00:40:47):

we can do after that.

Hovik (00:40:49):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:40:50):

Well, this has been a very good discussion, but I want to move us forward.

Hovik (00:40:55):

We were,

Hovik (00:40:56):

you know,

Hovik (00:40:57):

if this was any other time,

Hovik (00:40:59):

if there wasn't a major war going on,

Hovik (00:41:01):

we would begin our program with this next segment.

Hovik (00:41:04):

Last week,

Hovik (00:41:05):

February 27,

Hovik (00:41:07):

was the anniversary of the Sumgait pogroms in Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:41:12):

in Soviet Azerbaijan,

Hovik (00:41:14):

taking place from February 27 to March 1,

Hovik (00:41:16):

1988.

Hovik (00:41:20):

These were the responses of the leadership of Azerbaijan and criminal gangs in

Hovik (00:41:26):

Azerbaijan to peaceful requests from the Armenian population for more rights,

Hovik (00:41:32):

especially of Armenians in Artsakh.

Hovik (00:41:35):

Organized mobs attacked Armenians in their homes and on the streets.

Hovik (00:41:41):

While local authorities failed to stop the rampage, some would say even encouraged the rampage.

Hovik (00:41:47):

By the end,

Hovik (00:41:48):

the entire Armenian population of Sumgait,

Hovik (00:41:51):

there are various estimates,

Hovik (00:41:52):

but it numbers in the tens of thousands of people.

Hovik (00:41:55):

The entire Armenian population of Sumgait was forced out.

Hovik (00:41:59):

The official death toll from the Soviet numbers is 32,

Hovik (00:42:03):

but Armenian sources have numbers in the hundreds.

Hovik (00:42:10):

And of course, we're not even talking about the widespread injuries and the atrocities that

Hovik (00:42:15):

happened, including rape and other inhuman acts.

Hovik (00:42:21):

Now Armenia's foreign ministry this year marked the anniversary by honoring the

Hovik (00:42:26):

victims, but it also injected some language about rejecting hatred and hate speech while

Hovik (00:42:34):

still stressing that Armenia is working steadfastly toward reconciliation and

Hovik (00:42:40):

lasting peace.

Hovik (00:42:42):

Around the same time, the dictator of Baku,

Hovik (00:42:46):

Ilham Aliyev kept talking about how Armenians must fear Azerbaijan's army and that

Hovik (00:42:53):

is the only way that this region can exist from now on.

Hovik (00:42:58):

So much for reconciliation.

Hovik (00:42:59):

Hrant, I wanted to ask for your reflections on this anniversary of the Sumgait pogroms.

Hovik (00:43:06):

What can you add to what I said?

Hrant (00:43:10):

Well,

Hrant (00:43:11):

basically,

Hrant (00:43:12):

Azerbaijan is,

Hrant (00:43:13):

you know,

Hrant (00:43:14):

showing obviously that there is no peace in the future.

Hrant (00:43:19):

We are not going to receive any peace because of at least of Pan-Turkism and also

Hrant (00:43:26):

because of,

Hrant (00:43:27):

you know, the Western Azerbaijan narrative,

Hrant (00:43:29):

which Azerbaijan is pushing forward.

Hrant (00:43:32):

And I think that the only policy Azerbaijan has for Armenians is force, is killings, and so on.

Hrant (00:43:40):

So, I mean, the Sumgait pogrom, what better was what happened in Artsakh two years ago?

Hrant (00:43:48):

I mean,

Hrant (00:43:49):

it was even worse because there were more casualties,

Hrant (00:43:53):

more violence,

Hrant (00:43:54):

maybe not so direct in the streets,

Hrant (00:43:57):

but only 70 people have died during evacuation.

Hrant (00:44:02):

or only during evacuation.

Hrant (00:44:05):

About 1,000 people have died in Artsakh during the starvation which the Azerbaijani

Hrant (00:44:11):

criminal government has organized.

Hrant (00:44:14):

More than 200 people,

Hrant (00:44:16):

maybe 230 or something,

Hrant (00:44:19):

have died during Azerbaijan direct military attack.

Hrant (00:44:22):

I mean,

Hrant (00:44:23):

among military and some civilians,

Hrant (00:44:25):

the number we don't know exactly,

Hrant (00:44:29):

but most probably about 25.

Hrant (00:44:31):

And then the explosion, about 210 victims.

Hrant (00:44:37):

And if we gather it all up, I mean, it will be somewhere around 1500s.

Hrant (00:44:44):

So 1% or even more, 1.5% of remaining population of Artsakh.

Hrant (00:44:50):

So, I mean, the atrocious policies of Azerbaijani dictatorship has not changed.

Hrant (00:44:56):

So I think we need to focus more on Artsakh issue.

Hrant (00:45:02):

That's first.

Hrant (00:45:03):

Now, second, what I want to say in this context...

Hrant (00:45:06):

is that the Azerbaijani policy now is driving towards some change of the legal acts

Hrant (00:45:17):

adopted back then.

Hrant (00:45:19):

I mean, Azerbaijan was the initiator of the war of 1990s because they usually try to

Hrant (00:45:25):

portray Armenians as initiators,

Hrant (00:45:27):

but Armenians only held rallies while Azerbaijan started violent responses.

Hrant (00:45:33):

And in 1992, U.S.

Hrant (00:45:36):

Congress has adopted Section 907 to the Freedom Support Act,

Hrant (00:45:42):

which banned military support towards Azerbaijan.

Hrant (00:45:45):

Although last two decades, this section has not worked,

Hrant (00:45:51):

And as of now, frankly speaking, it has more symbolic meaning.

Hrant (00:45:56):

But Azerbaijan wants to achieve that symbolic victory, and they want it very hardly.

Hrant (00:46:01):

And that is why they have opened some very small window of trade with Armenia.

Hrant (00:46:08):

I mean these latest supplies of petrol or some other goods.

Hrant (00:46:14):

And immediately they have brought to the Congress,

Hrant (00:46:18):

with support of US-Israel lobby,

Hrant (00:46:21):

they have brought to the Congress a resolution to remove this section 907 or to

Hrant (00:46:27):

recognize it obsolete.

Hrant (00:46:29):

So this resolution is in US Congress since December 2025.

Hrant (00:46:35):

And they put it in this way.

Hrant (00:46:38):

Since now the relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan have improved,

Hrant (00:46:43):

since now there is already a peace,

Hrant (00:46:45):

we can go on and remove it.

Hrant (00:46:47):

And this is also very important.

Hrant (00:46:50):

I mean,

Hrant (00:46:51):

Armenian-American community,

Hrant (00:46:52):

I think,

Hrant (00:46:53):

needs to do everything they can to not let this happen.

Hrant (00:46:56):

Because in reality,

Hrant (00:46:58):

what Azerbaijan wants is to get an indulgence towards new atrocities and new crimes

Hrant (00:47:05):

against humanity and against Armenian nation.

Asbed (00:47:08):

Okay, Hrant, thank you so much for joining us today.

Asbed (00:47:11):

This was a big topic, so we had to skip a couple of other topics that we had planned.

Asbed (00:47:16):

We have to wrap it up.

Asbed (00:47:18):

Thank you so much for joining us.

Asbed (00:47:20):

Thank you.

Asbed (00:47:22):

Well, that was our show, Hovig.

Asbed (00:47:25):

Our Week in Review was recorded on March 3rd,

Asbed (00:47:27):

2026, and we've been talking with Hrant Mikaelian,

Asbed (00:47:31):

a political scientist and multidisciplinary researcher in social sciences based in

Asbed (00:47:36):

Yerevan.

Asbed (00:47:38):

For more information on everybody, you can go to podcasts.groong.org/episode-number.

Asbed (00:47:43):

Click on the links.

Asbed (00:47:44):

We will also provide a lot of the references,

Asbed (00:47:46):

the articles that we have gathered information from.

Hovik (00:47:49):

Have you forgotten to LIKE, COMMENT, or SHARE our podcast?

Hovik (00:47:54):

And if so, please do so now.

Hovik (00:47:56):

We would really appreciate it.

Hovik (00:47:58):

And also be on the lookout if you're on the mobile app.

Hovik (00:48:01):

There's this new feature called HYPE.

Hovik (00:48:03):

Apparently, it's being rolled out.

Hovik (00:48:05):

gradually incrementally so you may not have it, but if you see a HYPE button,

Hovik (00:48:11):

click on that and give us some points because I believe that's the way that

Hovik (00:48:16):

YouTube now is trying to boost smaller channels, so that's an additional way

Hovik (00:48:23):

that you can help us.

Asbed (00:48:29):

I'm waiting for the piroshki button, or the corn on the cob button.

Hovik (00:48:32):

Bad joke, Asbed.

Asbed (00:48:35):

Sometimes it's so bad that you just have to laugh about it a little bit and move on.

Hovik (00:48:40):

I mean, I normally don't eat carbs,

Hovik (00:48:42):

but sometimes that could be a guilty pleasure,

Hovik (00:48:46):

depending on the quality of the piroshki or corn on the cob.

Hovik (00:48:49):

But I don't think I'm going to approach those two foods in the next decade or so, probably.

Hovik (00:48:55):

I don't know.

Hovik (00:48:57):

Based on what I'm seeing, it'll just, it'll create trauma.

Hovik (00:49:00):

So anyway.

Asbed (00:49:02):

Thanks for listening, everyone.

Asbed (00:49:04):

We'll talk to you next week.

Asbed (00:49:05):

I'm Asbed Bedrossian in Los Angeles.

Hovik (00:49:07):

And I'm Hovik Manucharyan, currently in Los Angeles.

Asbed (00:49:11):

Bye-bye.

Hovik (00:49:11):

Bye-bye.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

Hrant Mikaelian

Guest

Podcasts we love

Check out these other fine podcasts recommended by us, not an algorithm.