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Eldar Mamedov - Iran War: The Northern Front | Ep 525, Mar 22, 2026

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0:00 | 47:14

Conversations on Groong - March 22, 2026

Topics:

  • Iran at War
  • The Northern Front: Turkey & Azerbaijan
  • Changing Nakhijevan's Constitution

Guest: Eldar Mamedov

Hosts:

  • Hovik Manucharyan
  • Asbed Bedrossian

Episode 525 | Recorded: March 20, 2026

SHOW NOTES: https://podcasts.groong.org/525

VIDEO: https://youtu.be/pWd_-iNIM8E

#GroongPodcast #EldarMamedov #IranWar #Azerbaijan #SouthCaucasus


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Asbed (00:00:04):

Hello everyone, and welcome to this Conversations on Groong episode.

Asbed (00:00:08):

We're continuing to discuss different aspects of the U.S.

Asbed (00:00:11):

and Israel's second unprovoked war on Iran,

Asbed (00:00:14):

once again torpedoing the then ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.

Asbed (00:00:19):

We are joined today by Mr.

Asbed (00:00:20):

Eldar Mamedov,

Asbed (00:00:21):

a former Latvian diplomat and a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute,

Asbed (00:00:26):

and also a member of the Pugwash Council on Science and World Affairs.

Asbed (00:00:30):

Mr. Mamedov, welcome back to the Groong podcast.

Eldar (00:00:33):

Thank you.

Eldar (00:00:34):

It's great to be with you again.

Hovik (00:00:36):

Hello, Mr. Mamedov.

Hovik (00:00:38):

Happy No Rules to you and to all of our listeners who celebrate.

Hovik (00:00:42):

Thank you.

Asbed (00:00:43):

So we have talked on our podcast significantly about the reasons for Trump's

Asbed (00:00:48):

decision to go on this ill-advised war of aggression against Iran.

Asbed (00:00:52):

We are recording this on March 20th, which is the 21st day of this war.

Asbed (00:00:56):

The brutal assassination of top Iranian leaders,

Asbed (00:00:59):

heavy bombardment of its cities and industry,

Asbed (00:01:02):

and the many senseless civilian casualties appear to have only strengthened Iranian

Asbed (00:01:06):

resolve to fight back.

Asbed (00:01:08):

And this has exposed Trump's plan, which seems to have been just basically a plan.

Asbed (00:01:13):

A, kill the leadership, destroy the infrastructure, and hope that the population would rise up.

Asbed (00:01:18):

This hasn't happened.

Asbed (00:01:20):

So the Straits of Hormuz are now shut down.

Asbed (00:01:23):

Oil prices are climbing.

Asbed (00:01:24):

World economies are jittery.

Asbed (00:01:25):

Stock markets are sliding.

Asbed (00:01:27):

Truly,

Asbed (00:01:28):

I think Americans are angry at their leadership while Trump is seeking an

Asbed (00:01:32):

additional $200 billion in war funds immediately.

Asbed (00:01:36):

and a 1.5 trillion war budget for next year.

Asbed (00:01:40):

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi mocked these requests,

Asbed (00:01:45):

and he called them Trump's "Israel First Tax",

Asbed (00:01:47):

I think that was just yesterday or two days ago.

Asbed (00:01:50):

So the only question now is to ask, how do we get out of this mess?

Asbed (00:01:54):

Eldar,

Asbed (00:01:55):

what are the conditions under which the sides are going to start finding it

Asbed (00:01:59):

acceptable to negotiate for peace, rather than continuing to fight?

Eldar (00:02:04):

Well, first of all,

Eldar (00:02:05):

for President Trump,

Eldar (00:02:07):

it's critically important to emerge from this mess that,

Eldar (00:02:11):

as Reilly pointed out,

Eldar (00:02:12):

he himself created with a face-saving formula.

Eldar (00:02:16):

He cannot get out of it if he cannot sell it to his people as some kind of victory.

Eldar (00:02:25):

And the polls actually should worry him a lot because according to recently released

Eldar (00:02:33):

polls from data for progress.

Eldar (00:02:36):

It's only 43% of Americans who approve of the strikes on Iran, and 53 who disapprove.

Eldar (00:02:43):

And that's quite significant, as we are talking about relatively early stage of the war.

Eldar (00:02:51):

What should be even more worrying with Trump is that even among Republicans, the majority

Eldar (00:03:00):

disapproves of that war.

Eldar (00:03:02):

Only 42% approve and 47% disapprove.

Eldar (00:03:07):

Moreover,

Eldar (00:03:09):

the gap is even bigger when the question is,

Eldar (00:03:14):

whom do American citizens believe this war benefits more,

Eldar (00:03:19):

United States or Israel?

Eldar (00:03:20):

And there, the figures are truly staggering.

Eldar (00:03:25):

Only 19% of Democrats believe that this war

Eldar (00:03:29):

benefits United States more than Israel,

Eldar (00:03:31):

and 67% believe that it benefits more Israel than United States.

Eldar (00:03:38):

And the numbers with Republicans are different,

Eldar (00:03:43):

but even there,

Eldar (00:03:44):

almost half of the Republicans believe that this war benefits more Israel than the

Eldar (00:03:51):

United States.

Eldar (00:03:52):

So there's a clear political problem for Trump in the year of midterm elections.

Eldar (00:03:58):

which means that he has to emerge somehow from this war with a face-saving formula.

Eldar (00:04:07):

At this point, it's very difficult to imagine what such a formula would entail.

Eldar (00:04:13):

It's clear that he's desperate to get out of it,

Eldar (00:04:15):

but it's not evident what should happen for him to be able to declare victory,

Eldar (00:04:24):

not least because Tehran

Eldar (00:04:26):

is absolutely not in the mood to stop the war now,

Eldar (00:04:30):

which may sound ironic given that Iran is perceived as a weaker side in this

Eldar (00:04:36):

conflict.

Eldar (00:04:37):

However,

Eldar (00:04:38):

there's also clear incentive for Tehran to continue at least for some time more

Eldar (00:04:45):

because Tehran has learned a lesson after the June war when the other side is ready

Eldar (00:04:55):

to stop the war, or rather just to agree on the ceasefire, what does it mean for Tehran?

Eldar (00:05:02):

It only means a pause.

Eldar (00:05:04):

It doesn't mean that the war is over and the issue is resolved,

Eldar (00:05:09):

that there is some kind of agreement to put an end to the war.

Eldar (00:05:13):

None of that has happened,

Eldar (00:05:14):

and now in Iran there is a prevailing feeling,

Eldar (00:05:19):

an assessment that agreeing to the ceasefire

Eldar (00:05:23):

after 12 days war last June was a mistake,

Eldar (00:05:28):

and that Iran had to inflict more damage and impose more costs on Israel and the

Eldar (00:05:34):

United States,

Eldar (00:05:35):

and then to negotiate the ceasefire from a stronger position.

Eldar (00:05:41):

So now Iran does not want to repeat what it considers the mistake it made last year.

Eldar (00:05:50):

The assessment of the leadership is that

Eldar (00:05:52):

It will leave Iran in an even weaker position and invite US and Israel to pound it

Eldar (00:06:00):

at will at any time in the future.

Eldar (00:06:03):

For Tehran,

Eldar (00:06:04):

conditions to end the war are very clear,

Eldar (00:06:09):

and it involves sanctions relief and some kind of guarantee that there will be no

Eldar (00:06:17):

repeat of another war.

Eldar (00:06:19):

And those conditions are...

Eldar (00:06:22):

unacceptable.

Eldar (00:06:23):

I'll try it for Israel,

Eldar (00:06:24):

because Israel is interested in never-ending war on Iran until it degrades fully

Eldar (00:06:31):

Iran's not just defense capabilities,

Eldar (00:06:34):

but also its industrial capacity so that it cannot re-power.

Eldar (00:06:39):

For the United States, the calculus is different.

Eldar (00:06:41):

This is not the war that benefits the United States.

Eldar (00:06:48):

But the problem is that because

Eldar (00:06:51):

There is no strategy.

Eldar (00:06:52):

There is no plan.

Eldar (00:06:54):

There is only day-to-day improvisation on the part of Trump administration.

Eldar (00:06:58):

It's not very clear under what conditions they could agree to stop that would also

Eldar (00:07:04):

be acceptable for Tehran.

Eldar (00:07:05):

So unfortunately, I see that the prospects for off-ramps so far are very dubious.

Eldar (00:07:14):

And unfortunately, this is going to go on for some time.

Asbed (00:07:18):

Eldar, have the goals shifted at all for Israel and the United States?

Asbed (00:07:24):

And are they pursuing the same goals?

Eldar (00:07:27):

I don't think they shifted because there were no clearly defined goals for the

Eldar (00:07:33):

United States to begin with.

Eldar (00:07:35):

There does seem to be that it's the case that there's simply no strategy.

Eldar (00:07:40):

There was a plan A,

Eldar (00:07:42):

which was to decapitate the leadership,

Eldar (00:07:45):

to assassinate the supreme leader,

Eldar (00:07:46):

which they did.

Eldar (00:07:48):

And the assumption was that that would somehow lead to uprising and the regime

Eldar (00:07:55):

change on the ground.

Eldar (00:07:57):

Trump was induced to believe that Iran was so weak that it would only take one

Eldar (00:08:08):

little push and then the whole system will crumble.

Eldar (00:08:11):

Obviously, that did not happen.

Eldar (00:08:14):

What we see instead is the consolidation of power in Tehran

Eldar (00:08:18):

in the hands of far more hardline and radical elements than those that were

Eldar (00:08:25):

eliminated by US and Israel,

Eldar (00:08:27):

such as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the powerful Secretary for National

Eldar (00:08:33):

Security Council,

Eldar (00:08:35):

Ali Larijani.

Eldar (00:08:37):

So both are replaced by figures much more hardline,

Eldar (00:08:41):

Mojtaba Khamenei,

Eldar (00:08:42):

the Khamenei Junior as the Supreme Leader,

Eldar (00:08:45):

and

Eldar (00:08:47):

Reportedly,

Eldar (00:08:49):

Hossein Dehghan,

Eldar (00:08:51):

who is a member of IRGC,

Eldar (00:08:55):

is rumored to replace Ali Larijani.

Eldar (00:08:59):

the National Security Council.

Eldar (00:09:03):

That has not been confirmed yet, but the point is that the trajectory is that

Eldar (00:09:09):

those officials who get killed by U.S.

Eldar (00:09:12):

and Israel are being replaced by much more hardline and IRGC-related individuals.

Eldar (00:09:22):

So it's clear that from the U.S.

Eldar (00:09:25):

perspective, there doesn't seem to be any plan.

Eldar (00:09:30):

For Israel, on the other hand, the strategy is quite clear, and that strategy is...

Eldar (00:09:38):

If not to bring the regime change,

Eldar (00:09:42):

then at least to degrade Iranian defense and industrial capabilities to such an

Eldar (00:09:50):

extent that it may not pose any threats to Israel anymore.

Eldar (00:09:56):

And ideally, of course, for Israel, the disintegration and dismemberment of Iran and

Eldar (00:10:08):

this function would be the end game.

Eldar (00:10:12):

Because Israel, unlike the Gulf countries or the Caucasus countries,

Eldar (00:10:16):

feels that since it's not a direct neighbor of Iran,

Eldar (00:10:20):

it will not be affected by the answering chaos to the same extent that Iran's

Eldar (00:10:27):

direct neighbors.

Hovik (00:10:29):

Let's dive deeper into Azerbaijan and all the questions surrounding,

Hovik (00:10:33):

you know,

Hovik (00:10:35):

Azerbaijan's potential involvement in this war.

Hovik (00:10:38):

We see that officially Azerbaijan is claiming neutrality,

Hovik (00:10:41):

but the tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan do regularly flare up.

Hovik (00:10:46):

During the 12-day war in June,

Hovik (00:10:48):

for instance,

Hovik (00:10:49):

a report suggested that Azerbaijan provided a platform for some types of Israeli

Hovik (00:10:54):

operations.

Hovik (00:10:55):

Now,

Hovik (00:10:56):

you wrote an article on March 8th in the American Conservative,

Hovik (00:11:00):

we'll include a link to that in our show notes,

Hovik (00:11:02):

where you argue that that March 5th drone strike on Nakhijevan

Hovik (00:11:09):

also sharply raised tensions.

Hovik (00:11:10):

You note that Azerbaijan essentially condemned the strikes,

Hovik (00:11:14):

rejected Iran's denial that it was a false flag operation,

Hovik (00:11:18):

and started to increasingly invoke the fate of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran,

Hovik (00:11:24):

so-called Southern Azerbaijan.

Hovik (00:11:27):

But you argue that this rhetoric also is a wider neoconservative push in Washington

Hovik (00:11:35):

to exploit Iran's ethnic fault lines.

Hovik (00:11:37):

I mean, we see every time something between Iran and Azerbaijan happens,

Hovik (00:11:41):

all these neoconservatives in Washington start to cheer.

Hovik (00:11:45):

In the end, though,

Hovik (00:11:46):

you say that Azerbaijan's leverage is limited since Iran can hit the energy

Hovik (00:11:52):

infrastructure in Azerbaijan and damage the economy without even a ground war.

Hovik (00:11:57):

Now,

Hovik (00:11:58):

just after this incident last,

Hovik (00:12:00):

I believe it was a few days ago,

Hovik (00:12:01):

we saw reports that there were drones spotted over Azerbaijan or Baku,

Hovik (00:12:08):

I'm not sure.

Hovik (00:12:10):

Do you think that the situation between Iran and Azerbaijan is under control now or

Hovik (00:12:15):

does Iran have something to be worried about still from potential

Hovik (00:12:19):

escalation in its north and what accounted for such an aggressive escalation by

Hovik (00:12:24):

Aliyev in the first place despite Iran reassuring that it was a not responsible for

Eldar (00:12:29):

it it was a false flag operation for years Aliyev has built this image waving his

Eldar (00:12:36):

iron fist and he again used that expression during his very combative speech after

Eldar (00:12:44):

those drones

Eldar (00:12:47):

landed in so it would be rather difficult for him to climb down and execute this

Eldar (00:12:55):

kind of rhetoric in such a situation but we have to bear in mind that mostly this

Eldar (00:13:04):

kind of rhetoric is for the domestic consumption because indeed if for years

Eldar (00:13:12):

He's been waving his iron fist and the official rhetoric was proclaiming Azerbaijan

Eldar (00:13:19):

as the regional leader,

Eldar (00:13:21):

as almost a great power in the region that everyone had to defer to.

Eldar (00:13:28):

But what happened in reality?

Eldar (00:13:32):

So all this talk amounted essentially to the border,

Eldar (00:13:37):

the ground border between Azerbaijan and Iran,

Eldar (00:13:40):

to be closed for a grand total of four days.

Eldar (00:13:44):

And that closure actually harmed more the Azerbaijani,

Eldar (00:13:48):

but also Russian and Georgian truck drivers who were involved in transit trade with

Eldar (00:13:56):

Iran.

Eldar (00:13:58):

Also,

Eldar (00:14:00):

some of the southern regions in Azerbaijan,

Eldar (00:14:03):

where people used to buy Iranian products and foodstuffs,

Eldar (00:14:10):

they were deprived of it.

Eldar (00:14:12):

And as a consequence, the prices went up.

Eldar (00:14:16):

So, in essence, that measure harmed the Azerbaijani side more than they did the Iranian side.

Eldar (00:14:24):

And now, just yesterday...

Eldar (00:14:27):

the Azerbaijani official media announced that Azerbaijan is sending humanitarian

Eldar (00:14:34):

aid to Iran,

Eldar (00:14:37):

up to 80 tons of food and medicines for Nowruz.

Eldar (00:14:44):

And of course, this is not being done just simply out of brotherly love for Iran.

Eldar (00:14:50):

This is a calculated move, which is designed to de-escalate tensions,

Eldar (00:14:56):

Why Ali is doing it?

Eldar (00:14:58):

Because he understands how vulnerable he is.

Eldar (00:15:02):

And here is, I think, an interesting development that should be emphasized.

Eldar (00:15:10):

Israel is fast becoming a strategic liability for Azerbaijan.

Eldar (00:15:14):

Why?

Eldar (00:15:15):

Because Azerbaijan has already benefited from Israeli ties, from Israeli weaponry in its war.

Eldar (00:15:25):

against Armenia, and subsequently in reincorporation of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan.

Eldar (00:15:33):

So from Aliyev's point of view,

Eldar (00:15:35):

his main geopolitical and foreign policy objectives have been accomplished.

Eldar (00:15:43):

For Israel,

Eldar (00:15:44):

though,

Eldar (00:15:45):

Azerbaijan is interesting mainly,

Eldar (00:15:49):

mostly,

Eldar (00:15:50):

if not exclusively,

Eldar (00:15:52):

as a foothold on Iran's north.

Eldar (00:15:55):

And while there are different assessments whether indeed missiles and drones flown

Eldar (00:16:03):

from the territory of Azerbaijan to Iran last year,

Eldar (00:16:07):

what is undeniable is that Israel definitely has intelligence presence in

Eldar (00:16:14):

Azerbaijan.

Eldar (00:16:15):

So now all those neoconservatives who have been promoting Azerbaijan

Eldar (00:16:23):

as a kind of pro-Israel,

Eldar (00:16:25):

pro-American bulwark against Iran,

Eldar (00:16:30):

they have all become incredibly excited when the drones have landed in Nakhijevan.

Eldar (00:16:36):

And there was a campaign to get Azerbaijan involved directly into war with Iran to

Eldar (00:16:45):

open the so-called Northern Front and to use the Azerbaijani

Eldar (00:16:52):

factor within Jordan and because uh aliyev understands the risks the whole energy

Eldar (00:17:03):

infrastructure the platforms the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline all of this all this

Eldar (00:17:12):

infrastructure is a mainstay economic mainstay

Eldar (00:17:16):

of Azerbaijani state.

Eldar (00:17:19):

It's not a diversified economy.

Eldar (00:17:21):

It depends almost entirely on the exports of hydrocarbons.

Eldar (00:17:26):

And if this infrastructure is within the easy reach of Iranian missiles,

Eldar (00:17:33):

then that of course should induce some prudence.

Eldar (00:17:40):

And that's what we're seeing.

Eldar (00:17:42):

Now, concerning the

Eldar (00:17:46):

so-called South Azerbaijan,

Eldar (00:17:49):

majority of Azerbaijanis in Iran are not at all thrilled about the prospects of

Eldar (00:17:57):

secession from Iran.

Eldar (00:18:00):

The absolute majority of them feel Iranian.

Eldar (00:18:04):

They identify with the Iranian state.

Eldar (00:18:06):

They speak their own language, but most of them are strong Iranian patriots.

Eldar (00:18:12):

And in fact,

Eldar (00:18:14):

I myself was in Tabriz and in Ardabil last year, just shortly before the war.

Eldar (00:18:21):

I toured those areas and never did I have any impression

Eldar (00:18:30):

that any separatist feeling, sentiment was present.

Eldar (00:18:35):

Yes, these people,

Eldar (00:18:36):

they are very proud of their language,

Eldar (00:18:38):

of their distinct identity,

Eldar (00:18:40):

but they still consider themselves Iranian.

Eldar (00:18:44):

And much less,

Eldar (00:18:46):

much less they are willing to unite with the Republic of Azerbaijan under Ali's

Eldar (00:18:55):

leadership.

Eldar (00:18:56):

In fact, the whole idea that this should happen

Eldar (00:19:00):

is seen as absolutely laughable and ludicrous by those people.

Eldar (00:19:05):

Indeed, the only framework under which they would consider unification,

Eldar (00:19:11):

so-called unification with the Republic of Azerbaijan,

Eldar (00:19:15):

would be under Iranian state.

Eldar (00:19:19):

As North Azerbaijan.

Eldar (00:19:21):

Yes, because then they recall the Turkmenchai and Golestan treaties signed by the

Eldar (00:19:29):

Russian Federation in early 19th century.

Eldar (00:19:32):

And then the argument is, okay, they can unite, but we go back to those times.

Eldar (00:19:42):

But I have to say that this is not an idea that is being actively promoted.

Eldar (00:19:47):

It's being used normally as a reaction to the

Eldar (00:19:52):

proposition that the so-called South Azerbaijan should either secede from Iran or

Eldar (00:19:59):

unite with the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Eldar (00:20:01):

So that's not a serious threat, not a serious issue.

Hovik (00:20:05):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:20:06):

Mr. Mamedov, you mentioned a lot of interesting and important information.

Hovik (00:20:11):

I wanted to let you finish, but I have to ask some clarification.

Hovik (00:20:17):

So, I mean, for the last 30 years, essentially,

Hovik (00:20:21):

Azerbaijan and Israel have been building this very, very strong relationship.

Hovik (00:20:28):

You say that this relationship is now a strategic liability.

Hovik (00:20:32):

would it be so easy for Aliyev to get rid of it because it's not only uh between

Hovik (00:20:38):

people it's not only between uh groups of people it has been hardwired into the uh

Hovik (00:20:46):

infrastructure into the economy you know this Baku-Ceyhan pipeline that you're

Hovik (00:20:50):

talking about has been working non-stop even during the worst days of the Gaza

Hovik (00:20:55):

genocide, and does

Hovik (00:21:01):

Aliyev have full say on whether he will get rid of the strategic liability or can

Hovik (00:21:07):

Israel still impose some of its will on Azerbaijan?

Eldar (00:21:13):

I think Aliyev is in trouble.

Eldar (00:21:15):

He clearly is not willing to play the role that has been adjudicated to him,

Eldar (00:21:23):

so to say,

Eldar (00:21:24):

by his supporters in Washington and in Tel Aviv.

Eldar (00:21:29):

But on the other hand,

Eldar (00:21:30):

indeed, he's been so deeply embedded with Israel,

Eldar (00:21:36):

especially in the last years,

Eldar (00:21:39):

because he had to solve his own geopolitical priorities,

Eldar (00:21:44):

like the war with Armenia,

Eldar (00:21:46):

that indeed it's going to be very interesting to see how is he going to manage the

Eldar (00:21:54):

situation, especially since the war in Iran is still

Eldar (00:22:00):

very far from being over.

Eldar (00:22:03):

So the attempts to open the Northern Front and to get Azerbaijan involved in the

Eldar (00:22:14):

anti-Iran coalition are by no means over.

Eldar (00:22:19):

So the longer this war is going to go,

Eldar (00:22:21):

the more we can expect that those attempts will be tried again.

Eldar (00:22:30):

It's going to be, it will require a lot of nimbleness for Aliyev to navigate that.

Eldar (00:22:37):

And then also let's not forget Turkey.

Eldar (00:22:40):

Turkey is another key ally.

Eldar (00:22:44):

And Turkey is in a very difficult relationship now with Israel and Israeli

Eldar (00:22:49):

supporters in the United States and also some Israeli politicians,

Eldar (00:22:56):

like a former prime minister,

Eldar (00:22:57):

Naftali

Eldar (00:22:59):

Bennett, they are openly now framing Turkey as the next Iran.

Eldar (00:23:04):

So how is Aliyev going to position himself in that conundrum?

Eldar (00:23:11):

My guess is that he will prefer ultimately his Turkish connection.

Eldar (00:23:17):

But it's going to be very challenging for him to navigate these challenges,

Eldar (00:23:25):

which is why I'm saying that

Eldar (00:23:28):

this,

Eldar (00:23:29):

uh, overly close relationship with Israel,

Eldar (00:23:33):

uh, that served this purpose,

Eldar (00:23:35):

uh, when it was convenient now indeed is becoming more and more like strategic

Eldar (00:23:39):

liability.

Hovik (00:23:41):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:23:42):

Um,

Hovik (00:23:43):

Let me ask you about a recent incident that we read on the news.

Hovik (00:23:47):

In fact, this was, I believe, yesterday.

Hovik (00:23:49):

We were informed by Jerusalem Press that the Israeli Air Force attacked Iranian

Hovik (00:23:57):

Navy sites on the Caspian Sea for the first time since the start of the war.

Hovik (00:24:03):

To better understand the complexity of this operation,

Hovik (00:24:07):

one would have to look at a map of the region.

Hovik (00:24:10):

And if you do open the map,

Hovik (00:24:11):

you will see that in the most efficient path from Israel to the Caspian Sea,

Hovik (00:24:21):

it is 1,800 kilometers.

Hovik (00:24:24):

It goes over several Middle Eastern countries, including Syria and Iraq.

Hovik (00:24:31):

And then also much of Iran before reaching the Caspian Sea.

Hovik (00:24:35):

So even across like a huge part of that, like maybe about 800 kilometers is over Iran.

Hovik (00:24:44):

And we know that like, I think the maximum capacity of a F-35 jet, I believe is 1500 kilometers.

Hovik (00:24:52):

So just almost barely enough from the border,

Hovik (00:24:56):

with let's say Iraq to the Caspian Sea and back so you know assuming that they

Hovik (00:25:04):

refueled there essentially now this has led to speculations that actually the

Hovik (00:25:09):

attack came not from Israel itself but from one of the many airports and air bases

Hovik (00:25:17):

that Azerbaijan has opened up across its territory and also occupied Artsakh

Hovik (00:25:24):

since the end of the war with Armenia,

Hovik (00:25:26):

we see just like in an occupied Artsakh,

Hovik (00:25:28):

we see,

Hovik (00:25:29):

I think at least three,

Hovik (00:25:30):

maybe even four international class airports in a place where it's all ghost towns

Hovik (00:25:35):

where like few people live.

Hovik (00:25:37):

There's no logical explanation for, you know, other than military use.

Hovik (00:25:40):

So people were speculating, but do you have any more information about this incident?

Hovik (00:25:47):

How are, and if not, then do you know how the Iranians are reporting it and viewing it?

Hovik (00:25:53):

And, um,

Hovik (00:25:55):

how Azerbaijan is reporting it?

Eldar (00:25:58):

Well, very little is known about this particular incident.

Eldar (00:26:02):

If you're talking about the airports in Azerbaijan that have been built after the

Eldar (00:26:09):

war,

Eldar (00:26:10):

you probably mean such structures as an airport in Zangelan,

Eldar (00:26:14):

for example.

Eldar (00:26:16):

So, yeah, I mean, it cannot be excluded a priority that...

Eldar (00:26:24):

what you described is exactly what happened.

Eldar (00:26:27):

Then again, we just have too little information about that to make any definite conclusions.

Eldar (00:26:36):

What I can say for sure is that the way Iran is retaliating and imposing costs on

Eldar (00:26:45):

the broader region,

Eldar (00:26:47):

every country in Iran's vicinity

Eldar (00:26:53):

maybe except Armenia, by the way, but we can come back to that later.

Eldar (00:26:58):

But every other country,

Eldar (00:26:59):

especially those which do have close relations with Israel,

Eldar (00:27:04):

and Azerbaijan certainly fits in that category,

Eldar (00:27:08):

they are in Iranians' crosshairs.

Eldar (00:27:13):

This is what happened in the Gulf.

Eldar (00:27:16):

So all of those countries, they proved to be very vulnerable to Iranians.

Eldar (00:27:22):

attacks.

Eldar (00:27:24):

And the case is essentially not different from Azerbaijan.

Eldar (00:27:29):

So that's why I'm saying that these excessively close ties with Israel,

Eldar (00:27:35):

now they're boomeranging on Baku.

Eldar (00:27:38):

And it's not very clear to me how Aliyev can find his way out of it.

Hovik (00:27:44):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:27:46):

Okay.

Hovik (00:27:47):

Mr. Mamedov,

Hovik (00:27:49):

I want to go back to this Azerbaijan, Israel, and Turkey triangle.

Hovik (00:27:55):

I mean,

Hovik (00:27:56):

you said that many Israelis,

Hovik (00:27:58):

you quoted Naftali Bennett,

Hovik (00:28:00):

who are now very belligerent towards Turkey.

Hovik (00:28:07):

But, you know, I want to mention that

Hovik (00:28:11):

Turkey has for many years collaborated with Israel in dismembering Syria.

Hovik (00:28:17):

And as we saw many of these examples,

Hovik (00:28:21):

many of these attacks on Iran would not be possible through Syrian airspace if that

Hovik (00:28:26):

didn't happen.

Hovik (00:28:28):

Turkey had its own calculations,

Hovik (00:28:29):

but I just want to also underscore that during this entire period,

Hovik (00:28:35):

Turkey and Azerbaijan have been

Hovik (00:28:38):

obediently supplying Israel with all the oil, like 40 to 60% of Israel's oil.

Hovik (00:28:45):

So do you think that this rhetoric between Turkey and Israel is just like a theater

Hovik (00:28:54):

to calm down the Arabs and to make Turks look not as bad in front of the Arabs?

Hovik (00:29:00):

And the Turkish public opinion as well,

Hovik (00:29:01):

let's not forget about it,

Eldar (00:29:02):

which is overwhelmingly anti-Israeli particularly.

Eldar (00:29:08):

President Erdogan's Islamist base?

Eldar (00:29:10):

Well, I think it's not a theater.

Eldar (00:29:12):

I think it's genuine because as I said,

Eldar (00:29:15):

the political identity of the Turkish Islamist movement of which Erdogan is

Eldar (00:29:21):

representative is heavily tied to a Palestine issue and to Gaza.

Eldar (00:29:30):

And also the Israeli actions, the genocide in Gaza has definitely inflamed

Eldar (00:29:38):

feelings and sentiments in Turkey as it did in other Muslim countries.

Eldar (00:29:43):

So the government definitely has to take that into account.

Eldar (00:29:51):

Now, I don't think it's a theater also for a different reason.

Eldar (00:29:56):

Turkey is watching very carefully what's happening in Iran.

Eldar (00:30:01):

And the only conclusion that...

Eldar (00:30:04):

the policymakers in Ankara can draw from what they're seeing is that Israel is

Eldar (00:30:10):

looking forward to an undisputed regional hegemony.

Eldar (00:30:17):

And that means that there may not be any other strong Arab or Muslim,

Eldar (00:30:23):

non-Arab country in the region that could potentially somehow constrain Israel's

Eldar (00:30:31):

freedom of maneuver.

Eldar (00:30:34):

So that's why we see that there are formerly big and strong countries like Syria,

Eldar (00:30:45):

relatively strong like Syria and Iraq.

Eldar (00:30:48):

They are essentially removed from the equation.

Eldar (00:30:52):

Egypt is essentially submitted to American countries.

Eldar (00:30:59):

hence Israeli will.

Eldar (00:31:03):

So Iran is the last country standing on the path of this hegemonic drive by Israel.

Eldar (00:31:14):

And then, of course, there's Turkey.

Eldar (00:31:16):

Turkey is seen increasingly as the next Iran.

Eldar (00:31:22):

We see a lot of propaganda work

Eldar (00:31:28):

being done in the States to shape that perception.

Eldar (00:31:33):

And in fact,

Eldar (00:31:34):

since I follow these dossiers for a long time,

Eldar (00:31:40):

I can see that the narrative and the case against Turkey repeats the same patterns

Eldar (00:31:49):

that have been used against Iran.

Eldar (00:31:53):

So the ideological threats, the military threats,

Eldar (00:31:58):

are being constantly exaggerated.

Eldar (00:32:01):

The threat that Turkey poses to Israel is being consistently exaggerated.

Eldar (00:32:07):

And that campaign of demonization against Iran, it didn't happen overnight.

Eldar (00:32:13):

It takes decades to prepare the ground.

Eldar (00:32:16):

And I see the early stages of the same framing

Eldar (00:32:20):

of Turkey is also happening in neoconservative,

Eldar (00:32:23):

particularly neoconservative circles in Washington,

Eldar (00:32:26):

such as Foundation for Defense of Democracies,

Eldar (00:32:29):

for example.

Eldar (00:32:30):

So that's one side of it.

Eldar (00:32:34):

Of course, on the other side,

Eldar (00:32:36):

you rightly mentioned the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline,

Eldar (00:32:41):

which keeps supplying

Eldar (00:32:43):

up to 40 or even more this year, up to 46, I think, percent of Israeli needs for oil.

Eldar (00:32:53):

And indeed,

Eldar (00:32:57):

Turkish authorities have been challenged by critics consistently over their failure

Eldar (00:33:06):

to close that flow of oil.

Eldar (00:33:10):

despite all their rhetoric about ending trade relationship with Israel,

Eldar (00:33:17):

all of their rhetoric about Israel's genocide in Gaza and so on,

Eldar (00:33:23):

but the oil is still flowing there.

Eldar (00:33:25):

So there is also this disconnect between reality and rhetoric.

Eldar (00:33:32):

And by the way, cutting that flow would create significant problems for Israeli war machine

Eldar (00:33:39):

And Turkey is not doing that because it doesn't want to upset Azerbaijan,

Eldar (00:33:46):

their main ally,

Eldar (00:33:48):

but also because it is not yet at the stage when it is ready or willing to break

Eldar (00:33:55):

ties with Israel altogether.

Eldar (00:33:58):

So I think the rhetoric and the positioning is not a theater, it's genuine.

Eldar (00:34:06):

But there are also these sort of realpolitik considerations that keep Ankara from

Eldar (00:34:12):

burning all the bridges with Tel Aviv just yet.

Hovik (00:34:16):

Yeah, that's what I was concerned about.

Hovik (00:34:18):

I mean,

Asbed (00:34:18):

that'll be an interesting issue,

Asbed (00:34:20):

especially as Turkey being a member of NATO,

Asbed (00:34:24):

how that's going to pan out.

Hovik (00:34:25):

Exactly.

Hovik (00:34:27):

But Turkey being a member of NATO, yeah.

Hovik (00:34:29):

And everyone realizes that Turkey is also playing its own game.

Hovik (00:34:33):

But so far, it has been playing a very good game.

Hovik (00:34:36):

A huge country like Syria is dismembered, and the biggest beneficiaries are Turkey and Israel.

Hovik (00:34:45):

But on the eastern side,

Hovik (00:34:47):

we also see these movements with TRIP and the so-called Zangezur Corridor.

Hovik (00:34:53):

That is also has been a centuries-old dream of Turkish nationalists to set up a new

Hovik (00:34:59):

Ottoman Empire or Islamic Empire.

Hovik (00:35:01):

We know that Iran views this Zangezur Corridor, considers it as a threat.

Hovik (00:35:08):

And we've talked about how it might,

Hovik (00:35:13):

if Iran is successful in this war,

Hovik (00:35:14):

it might see it even more of a militaristic threat and might even increase its

Hovik (00:35:22):

measures against it.

Hovik (00:35:24):

But going back to Turkey, I think that we see Turkish generals on Turkish TV talking about

Hovik (00:35:33):

uh you know if Iran is dismembered yes we don't want to see Iran dismembered but if

Hovik (00:35:37):

Iran is dismembered we have no choice but to go in and secure our brethren so

Hovik (00:35:42):

turkey is good at portraying a diplomatic uh stance of you know no conflicts but if

Hovik (00:35:50):

things go bad in Iran

Hovik (00:35:53):

Would Turkey basically usurp that possibility to expand its empire and,

Hovik (00:36:01):

of course, Azerbaijan as well?

Hovik (00:36:02):

And are analysts, whether in Iran or whether outside, paying attention to this possibility?

Eldar (00:36:11):

Well, when it comes to Iran,

Eldar (00:36:13):

the main problem that Turkey has with potential dismemberment of Iran is,

Eldar (00:36:20):

of course, the Kurdish question.

Eldar (00:36:22):

So they just succeeded in having the Kurdish autonomy in Syria off the map.

Eldar (00:36:33):

They have good relations with Iraqi Kurdistan,

Eldar (00:36:38):

but they definitely do not want any Kurdish entities popping up here and there.

Eldar (00:36:44):

And that also includes Iran.

Eldar (00:36:46):

So that's for now the main worry and the main concern

Eldar (00:36:51):

of Turkey.

Eldar (00:36:52):

And that's why Turkey is definitely against the disintegration of Iran at this stage.

Eldar (00:36:59):

Now, concerning the scenario that you have described,

Eldar (00:37:04):

I don't see it's a very likely scenario in the short run.

Eldar (00:37:12):

We've seen that the Iranian state has shown far more resilience and capacity to organize itself

Eldar (00:37:22):

during this war and fight back that was previously assumed.

Eldar (00:37:27):

So I don't think that the disintegration of Iran is an imminent threat.

Eldar (00:37:34):

Now, assuming that that at some points might become an issue,

Eldar (00:37:40):

then of course Turkey will try to secure its own interests.

Eldar (00:37:46):

which would probably involve the same playbook they used in Syria with buffer zones

Eldar (00:37:52):

encroaching onto Iranian territory.

Eldar (00:37:56):

And, of course, Azerbaijan would seize the situation and do the same.

Eldar (00:38:03):

Even now, the pro-government analysts, they say that if indeed...

Eldar (00:38:14):

Iran crumbles and disintegrates, then they will have no other choice.

Eldar (00:38:21):

Baku will have no other choice but to encroach onto Iranian territory in the shape

Eldar (00:38:28):

of some buffer zone.

Eldar (00:38:31):

So essentially the thinking is the same in that respect in Baku and Ankara.

Eldar (00:38:37):

And then isolating Iran from Armenia and Armenia from Iran

Eldar (00:38:44):

would,

Eldar (00:38:45):

of course,

Eldar (00:38:46):

become a very attractive goal in creating this Turkic corridor from Turkey all the

Eldar (00:38:52):

way to Central Asia,

Eldar (00:38:54):

especially since it doesn't look like a trip is right now a priority for the

Eldar (00:39:02):

Americans.

Eldar (00:39:04):

As I understand, the Pashinyan's government saw this project as a kind of security guarantee,

Eldar (00:39:10):

long-term security guarantee for Armenia.

Eldar (00:39:12):

But so far...

Eldar (00:39:15):

From what I know, this project is more like a mirage.

Eldar (00:39:19):

There is nothing concrete, nothing tangible on the ground.

Eldar (00:39:24):

And since this war started,

Eldar (00:39:30):

obviously the United States have lost any interest that it previously had in this

Eldar (00:39:37):

project. So essentially...

Eldar (00:39:40):

There's nothing that would protect Armenia in the case of unraveling of Iran from

Eldar (00:39:48):

Turkish-Azerbaijani appetites.

Asbed (00:39:51):

Right, right.

Asbed (00:39:52):

In fact, Pashinyan himself in the first days of the war said that it seems like the United

Asbed (00:39:57):

States has deprioritized the whole project.

Asbed (00:40:00):

So just like you said, right now, a bit of a Mirage project.

Hovik (00:40:05):

Yeah.

Hovik (00:40:06):

I'm betting the entire future of the country on this, yeah.

Asbed (00:40:11):

I wanted to close with one final topic.

Asbed (00:40:14):

It has more to do with Azerbaijan's domestic issues because it deals with its

Asbed (00:40:20):

adoption of sweeping constitutional amendments that significantly reduce the

Asbed (00:40:24):

autonomy of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.

Asbed (00:40:28):

It tightens Baku's direct control over the exclave,

Asbed (00:40:31):

and the changes remove references to the 1921 Moscow and Garst treaties that

Asbed (00:40:37):

historically underpin Nakhijevan's special status,

Asbed (00:40:40):

explicitly redefining the region as an integral part of Azerbaijan.

Asbed (00:40:45):

It introduces a presidential representative directly subordinate to Ilham Aliyev to

Asbed (00:40:50):

oversee,

Asbed (00:40:51):

and so on and so forth.

Asbed (00:40:54):

Together,

Asbed (00:40:55):

these reforms centralized authority in the Azerbaijani presidency,

Asbed (00:40:59):

and they mark a decisive move away from Nakhijevan's previous distinct autonomous

Asbed (00:41:03):

governance,

Asbed (00:41:04):

which was kind of similar to the Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous condition.

Asbed (00:41:10):

Can you speak about the significance of these changes in Nakhijevan's status?

Asbed (00:41:15):

Why now?

Asbed (00:41:16):

What is the goal that Aliyev is pursuing?

Eldar (00:41:20):

Well, the goal is always the same,

Eldar (00:41:21):

to centralize as much power as he can in Baku and in his own hands,

Eldar (00:41:28):

particularly in this turbulent geopolitical framework and environment.

Eldar (00:41:34):

He sees that now he has to strengthen his hold on the country even more than was

Eldar (00:41:44):

the case before,

Eldar (00:41:46):

because the war with Armenia

Eldar (00:41:51):

And the result of this war was clearly very popular among, you know, Azerbaijani citizens.

Eldar (00:41:59):

But that's been already some time ago.

Eldar (00:42:03):

So,

Eldar (00:42:04):

and you cannot indefinitely live off the proceeds of one successful war,

Eldar (00:42:13):

even if it's considered,

Eldar (00:42:14):

you know,

Eldar (00:42:16):

a keystone of national identity.

Asbed (00:42:20):

So far, five years and going strong.

Eldar (00:42:24):

Yes, because there is no opposition, but the country itself is a black box.

Eldar (00:42:28):

In fact, very few people know what really is happening within the Azerbaijani society.

Eldar (00:42:33):

Because you see that the whole position is either jailed or in exile.

Eldar (00:42:39):

The leader of the People's Front,

Eldar (00:42:41):

for example,

Eldar (00:42:42):

Ali Karimli,

Eldar (00:42:44):

who fully supported the war in 2020,

Eldar (00:42:47):

that didn't help him.

Eldar (00:42:49):

He's imprisoned,

Eldar (00:42:53):

although for a long time he was sort of tolerated by the regime because he was not

Eldar (00:43:00):

seen as posing any danger.

Eldar (00:43:04):

So the last remnants of independent journalism are also destroyed.

Eldar (00:43:13):

And journalists, the few remaining independent journalists are

Eldar (00:43:18):

are being jailed or they are in exile.

Eldar (00:43:21):

The economic situation is not brilliant.

Eldar (00:43:26):

The oil prices,

Eldar (00:43:30):

the rising oil prices as an effect of the war on Iran may help him,

Eldar (00:43:37):

may help the budget in the short run,

Eldar (00:43:40):

but it doesn't solve the structural problems of Azerbaijani economy and society.

Eldar (00:43:48):

Just think of it,

Eldar (00:43:49):

despite all of its oil and gas wealth,

Eldar (00:43:54):

the GDP per capita in Azerbaijan is still the lowest in the South Caucasus.

Eldar (00:44:00):

That's pretty remarkable.

Eldar (00:44:02):

So I think that despite this external projection of the strength and the power of

Eldar (00:44:16):

the government,

Eldar (00:44:17):

in reality,

Eldar (00:44:19):

they feel much more vulnerable than they try to project.

Eldar (00:44:23):

So in this situation,

Eldar (00:44:25):

they do what they know best,

Eldar (00:44:28):

which is to concentrate and assume as much power as they can.

Asbed (00:44:33):

All right. Well, thank you so much for joining us today, Mr. Mamedov.

Asbed (00:44:37):

We really appreciate your insight.

Asbed (00:44:39):

It's very interesting to hear everybody's perspective on the war and the regional politics.

Eldar (00:44:46):

Thank you. I appreciate being with you.

Eldar (00:44:48):

Thank you.

Asbed (00:44:49):

Yeah, over the last couple of days,

Asbed (00:44:50):

we've actually talked to a few analysts,

Asbed (00:44:53):

an American anti-war activist,

Asbed (00:44:56):

and we just published that one.

Asbed (00:44:57):

We also talked to Varuzhan Geghamyan, whose show will probably publish tomorrow.

Asbed (00:45:03):

It's very interesting to see different perspectives come together on the show about

Asbed (00:45:07):

these regional issues and the war.

Eldar (00:45:10):

You are doing a great job.

Eldar (00:45:12):

I really enjoy it.

Eldar (00:45:13):

your show and I enjoy being with you.

Eldar (00:45:16):

So anytime you think I can contribute anything useful, just, you know where to find me.

Asbed (00:45:22):

Thank you.

Eldar (00:45:23):

Take care.

Eldar (00:45:25):

Take care. Have a nice weekend.

Eldar (00:45:26):

Bye-bye.

Asbed (00:45:27):

That's our show today.

Asbed (00:45:28):

The episode was recorded on March 20th, 2026.

Asbed (00:45:31):

We've been talking with Mr.

Asbed (00:45:33):

Eldar Mamedov,

Asbed (00:45:35):

who is a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute and a member of the Pugwash

Asbed (00:45:39):

Council on Science and World Affairs.

Asbed (00:45:41):

Mr. Mamedov is a diplomat who has worked in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia

Asbed (00:45:46):

and in Latvian embassies in Washington DC,

Asbed (00:45:49):

Madrid,

Asbed (00:45:50):

and other places.

Asbed (00:45:51):

He has served as a political advisor for the Social Democrats in the Foreign

Asbed (00:45:55):

Affairs Committee of the European Parliament and was in charge of the European

Asbed (00:46:00):

Parliament delegations for inter-parliamentary relations with Iran,

Asbed (00:46:04):

Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula.

Asbed (00:46:06):

For more information, you can go to our website and you can check the links out.

Hovik (00:46:13):

All right well another show in the bucket. Yeah, if you like what we're doing,

Hovik (00:46:18):

folks just don't forget to send a little love back our way, in the form of

Hovik (00:46:24):

LIKES, SHARES, COMMENTS, and of course financially it just seems like an awful

Hovik (00:46:30):

waste for like

Hovik (00:46:32):

programs like this to be seen by only a few hundred people or a thousand people.

Hovik (00:46:37):

So support us so that we can bring more shows,

Hovik (00:46:39):

but also at the same time,

Hovik (00:46:40):

figure out how we're going to deliver

Hovik (00:46:43):

these shows to more,

Hovik (00:46:44):

a bigger audience,

Hovik (00:46:45):

because that's something that we really need help on.

Hovik (00:46:48):

And if you have any other ideas, please, please feel free to write in the comments.

Hovik (00:46:52):

We always read everything.

Hovik (00:46:54):

So thank you for your attention,

Hovik (00:46:57):

I'm Hovik Manucharyan.

Asbed (00:46:59):

And I'm Asbed Bedrossian in Los Angeles.

Asbed (00:47:01):

Take care.

Hovik (00:47:03):

Take care.

Head Shot

Asbed Bedrossian

Co-host
Head Shot

Hovik Manucharyan

Co-host
Head Shot

Eldar Mamedov

Guest

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