The Norris Group Real Estate Podcast

I Survived Real Estate 2025 | Part 2: New Moodometer and Big Announcement

• The Norris Group, Craig Evans

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I SURVIVED REAL ESTATE 2025

The Norris Group Presents: The 18th Annual I Survived Real Estate – LIVE at the Nixon Presidential Library

The Norris Group’s award-winning black-tie gala, I Survived Real Estate, returns for its 18th year.  Since 2008, I Survived Real Estate has supported Make-A-Wish OC & IE—and thanks to your generosity, we’ve now raised over $1.2 million for children in need 

This year’s backdrop?


A California housing market still starved for inventory, mortgage rates hovering above comfort zones, affordability hitting generational lows, inflation and tariffs. Add in global uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the ever-watchful eye of the Federal Reserve—and you’ve got a landscape full of questions.

  • Inventory Drought: California’s housing supply remains critically low
  • Rate Pressure: Mortgage rates linger well above buyer comfort zones
  • Priced Out: Affordability has collapsed to generational lows
  • Global Tensions: War, tariffs, and instability rattle investor confidence
  • Inflation’s Grip: Costs remain stubbornly high, squeezing margins
  • Tariff Troubles: Rising import costs could ripple through construction and development
  • All Eyes on the Fed: Every rate hint could send shockwaves through the market

 Our expert panel brings top minds in economics, investing, and housing to help us prepare for what’s next. I Survived Real Estate was born from crisis, with a mission to unite thought leaders, give back, and guide our industry forward. 


In this episode:

  • Exploring the connection between Median Household Income and Median Home Prices
  • Introduction to the MoodOdometer, a new way to measure market sentiment
  • Looking back at historical market conditions through the MoodOdometer lens
  • Craig Evans and Bruce Norris on how interest rates shape market mood and buyer behavior
  • Craig Evans unveils the National MoodOdometer
  • Announcement of a new digital platform offering real-time housing data and insights





The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.


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Narrator:

Welcome to The Norris Group real estate podcast, a show committed to bringing you insights from thought leaders shaping the real estate industry. In each episode, we'll dive into conversations with industry experts and local insiders, all aimed at helping you thrive in an ever-changing real estate market. continuing the legacy that Bruce Norris created, sharing valuable knowledge, and empowering you on your real estate journey. Whether you're a seasoned pro or a newcomer, this is your go-to source for insider tips, market trends and success strategies. Here's your host, Craig Evans.

Joey Romero:

The Norris Group is proud to present our 18th annual gala. I Survived Real Estate at The Nixon Presidential Library on Friday, September 12. Since 2008, our event has raised well over a million dollars. This year, we'll be raising funds again from Make-A-Wish OC and IE. Individual Tickets are available now. To get your tickets, go to isurviverealestate.com click the link here in the card. We would like to thank the following platinum sponsors, uDirectIRA Services, The San Diego Creative Investors Association, DouglasBrooke Homes, MVT Productions, Realty411, and DBL Capital.

Craig Evans:

Talk to you about median household income to median price. Yeah.

Bruce Norris:

What's interesting about this is so this has a lot to do with the current interest rates, let's say. So let's go to 1980 anybody borrow money in 1980? I read refinanced my house at 17 and a half.

Craig Evans:

Good break. Okay.

Bruce Norris:

So you were at 4.7 multiplying times your household income, but your payment was crazy, because it was an interest rate that was crazy, but again, so this is just a history, so this multiple is really kind of connected to the interest rate at the time. So what is saying is, remember the affordability number being 17?

Craig Evans:

Right.

Bruce Norris:

Okay, it was 17, let's say in 1980 and say 2004 or five. Well, that multiple, doubled, but it still got to the affordability number that was even. So that's how important interest rates are, because you can't get to a 10 multiple if you have an interest rate that's nine.

Craig Evans:

Right.

Bruce Norris:

Right. So that's basically what that's telling you. Is this multiple needs a decent interest rate, or if you have a crazy interest rate, you're going to be back to four or five.

Craig Evans:

Right. Now, here's where I wanted us to land, because I want to spend a few minutes here, and this is one of the things that I've seen through this year, is that let me look at what's this, where I want us to see we've got so many people that talk about this and that call and ask about it, but as I hear people ask the questions, it's it's been dawning on me. A lot of people don't get this chart.

Bruce Norris:

Okay.

Craig Evans:

So I want you to dive into why was this your cheat sheet? You I've heard you use that term to me over and over. This was a cheat sheet that we should all know how to use. Okay, well, then Bruce, why? Why is that the cheatsheet?

Bruce Norris:

Yeah, what I renamed it, what this is, is, what percentage of your income are you willing to pay for house payment? It assumes you have a 20% down, and you get the going interest rate, and so you have an 80% mortgage, and there's your payment compared to your earnings. So that's what this is. I renamed it because it's really a calculation of the mood of the participant. Because if you think humans always act the same, apparently we don't. What's interesting. First of all, let's say this that the direction is most important on this chart. So if you see you get close to 70% on your journey to 70% it's accompanying a lot of other very positive charts. When you get done with 70% and let's say you go all the way to the end now 2022 and now we're hovering around 60%, that 60% is a much different reaction in the market than when you're in 1998 going towards 60% could you have a progression of mood and you're going to get to the brink until they lenders finally tell you,'No'. What this is, it takes the temperature of the participant, which is most important, how many guys are getting multiple offers on what you have for sale right now? Okay, so the mood is high in a number, but because, again, this is the direction is most important. When you were at 60% going up, you've got multiple offers on everything, and now you're not getting it on anything. You know, the only reason you have a lot of stability right now is because we have a base of mortgages that are two and a half to three and a half or 4% that tons of people have, and they're not going anywhere. And we predicted that in a report, because I had to cut trying to calibrate that, because we're going to be at a pretty high moodometer number for quite a long time. And I think the report name was 1% mortgage rates or lost decade, and we're in the lost decade period because we don't get a 1% mortgage, there's not going to be that drop in the mood. You know, you need to, you need to spread. Doesn't mean we're going to go down in price, but it does mean that we've used up a lot of the room. But here's what happens a human participant, and that's why I love this chart, because it allows me to do what I don't feel like doing. Well, you are in a euphoric mood, like, say, 2004 and five and six, when prices are going up and everything you touch turns to gold. Don't you feel like you're a genius? That's great. I put it up for sale at one for 70 grand more that day. And what's my what's my likely action? I sold 100 houses I owned, so you could have them all at the peak. I'll see you later. Now that was an unusual thing. We write a report in 2006 called the crash that didn't go over well to the for the industry, because it's supposed to be early, right? So you can make the right decision and say, you can get out of here and do something else. Okay, a few years later, the mood look where the mood is. It gets to 28% the lowest number ever. So it's on sale. It's half of what it was before. Did everybody go get them? No. What did it have to do to induce sales? Give you eight grand to buy a house that was 60% off. That's the human nature side of this. So I can look at this chart and go, Holy cow. Has it ever been here? Everybody's scared to death. I'm going to buy a lot of those. This is the greatest cheat sheet there is in real estate. Now, what's cool about this, and this is what Craig is probably going to start talking about, is we're finding ways that we can replicate this chart for other states, and that's pretty cool, and so, and that's not been done, but this one is a really great cheat sheet for

Craig Evans:

Well, one of the things I wanted to touch on this

Bruce Norris:

Okay, but think about that. That's another California. is, I'm looking at this you're talking about. So we're talking about 2022, we hit we're basically a 68 69% mood for the, you know, the population that they want to buy. percentage. That's the percentage of income they have to spend when they buy one.

Craig Evans:

Correct.

Bruce Norris:

Okay, that's a crazy number.

Craig Evans:

But where was interest rates in 2022?

Bruce Norris:

it really didn't matter but, but I would say was what two three correct.

Craig Evans:

Where are we at in 1980?

Bruce Norris:

Yeah.

Craig Evans:

We're 58 and I think it was May of 1980 we hit 18.2%?

Bruce Norris:

Okay, well, here's another thing that again, because I did this when I did all the research and laid those charts on the ground. I was trying to figure out where to put my money. So it was, man, an honest attempt to see what matters and what does not. And what's very interesting is when you understand in in my head, I have the other charts. So the volume of sales, when this moodometer starts heading up and goes to the peak, you're blowing up sales. You got 450,000 plus sales in California. When it gets down to the number of it's on sale from 2009 and 10 and 11 and 12, we had to make people to buy a house, and we were selling 200 and 250,000, of them, they were on sale. And no one wanted because it was the mood, was fear. So this is a human nature chart. And it's a cheat sheet, because you can do the opposite, or you can get out in time when people are euphoric. Mike Cantu had a rental I bought from him. I told him, okay, I got to keep it for a year. A year later, and we were still in the peak of a good market, I asked the people how I want to give you a vacation weekend? Okay, so I bought them a trip to Disney, and they did, they did their thing, and all I needed was an open, I just needed a house for sale at that time, 70 showings, 25 offers. Sold it that afternoon, and made 100 grand. Thank you very much. That's California, sometimes, you know, it's just one of those things that if you're in a cycle, but the volume of sales sometimes is the opposite of what you would think. It's more expensive, it's more expensive, it's more expensive. So we must be selling less? No. Human Nature says I want it at the same time. And that's the part you start getting three and four and five offers and the pressure. Can you imagine being the husband and wife going to shop and you, 'I love this house, honey, get it' beat out again. How many more are you going to get beat out on? Are you going to you're going to finally win one? That's the mood

Craig Evans:

Well, and that's why I wanted to go over this. And that's why, you know, we're making some changes within The Norris Group. But I wanted to show like, from 2022 we've got 2% interest rates.

Bruce Norris:

Right.

Craig Evans:

1980 we're literally a few points off, and we're at 18.2% so there's so much data, and there's so much content going out now where everybody's saying, hey, if the Feds lower the rates, and all of a sudden, now the mortgage rates may push in behind it, because. The the yield starts to change on the 10 year. Hey, this market's going to set on fire. We've got 40 years of data that says that's not necessarily the truth.

Bruce Norris:

That's right as a matter of fact.

Craig Evans:

That's not the indicator.

Bruce Norris:

Right? And it's actually in another in another chapter, another report. We calibrated what happens after you start having interest rate deductions. And in the first year, sales value goes down. It's not a pleasant two year period. Why? Because your mood doesn't change overnight. Just because the interest rate went down, you don't have a whole group of going, oh yeah, that's not what happens.

Craig Evans:

Well, so where I wanted to get to is because we got a lot of people that are, I think I said this one year, there's people that got more degrees than a thermometer that's in this room, you know. And I want to get to those people, not me, right? But here's what I want to tell you, one of the things that when I, when I took this over, you know, my parent company is called DBL Unlimited, stands for Douglas Brooke Legacy. So everything that we talked about was a legacy, right? And Bruce's legacy was about, he made his money off of charts, but his legacy was, how did he teach investors how to do the same thing? I mean, if I had $1 for every time I've heard you know, Tony Alvarez say how much money Bruce saved him by telling him when to get out, not just get in. Why? Some of these charts, right? So here's what we're going to do tonight, Joey, if you can go ahead and turn this on, we're changing the way we're bringing data to you guys. So we're going to bring data to you now. We've got a digital platform that we're launching. I've got Andrew Falde is here somewhere, Andrew, can you stand up for me for a second? Andrew works for one market. He's my VP of Capital Markets for me, but he's also a genius when it comes to technology. So somehow he and all the people that he works and employees have created, started creating a custom platform where this stuff over the next few weeks is going to change and over the next year is going to be incredible. The first thing that we put into this, as Bruce said, All he's ever done, and not all, because that was a mountain of work. Because Andrew tried to figure out how you put all this together. Took him months to figure out. But what he's always used the moodometer about was California, because getting the data and chasing that down was just a mountain of work. What Andrew and his team have put together for us is we've got a national mood or moodometer, for the first time, being able to put that together, then out of that. Go. Andrew, so we got a national mood ometer. Joey, if you can scroll through some of that, so you'll see, so, here's one of the things that he's going through, you'll see we've got everything based in charts. We've got all of the stuff that Bruce has for California. We've got all of that from a national perspective, as well as Andrew them spent months going through predictive indexes as well, starting to say, how do we take the history that the moodometer tells us and start to put six month increments of probability of what's coming. That's a big play to start understanding how to read history of this. Now, as I keep going through that, we've got the national side of that, then you're able to click over to our state side. There we go. We got a completely interactive map that you'll have, that you'll be to click on every state, see what they are, and then if you click down into that, it takes you down. It jumps you actually to the state. Now there's a lot that'll be coming out of this over the next, probably the next two to four weeks, that will even increase. But here's the thing I wanted to do, one we're extremely proud of how we're taking data and what we're trying to do with that and getting it to you guys. Because my thing is I wanted to follow a legacy of a man that I can't compete with. So in doing that, I want to make sure that we're following that legacy and helping you guys learn how to make more money and be better at what you do in your businesses. So in a show of appreciation for you coming tonight, everybody in the room gets the first six months free on me, so. I hope you take it. I hope you use it. I mean literally. I think the thing that honored me last night but,

Bruce Norris:

Me too?

Craig Evans:

You too. Here's the thing last night was the first time Bruce saw it, and I'm like a five year old school kid sitting over there nervous, like, Is my dad going to approve, right? And I could see Bruce, like, right? And he's studying. And finally, after about five minutes, he starts a little bit of easing, and he starts to and I'm realizing he approves, you know. So guys, again, you're going to get, Joey will make sure that everybody gets access to this. You'll, we've got promo codes for you guys to have. You'll get all of that. There's going to be tons of information coming in this. And like I say, Andrew and them have put a lot of work into that. You'll be able to have that access to your computer, through your phone, any digital device. You want. And we're extremely excited to launch that tonight, and to say, as a gift from us to you, thank you for spending $200 with us. We want to give you 600 bucks worth of stuff coming back to you in our data, so we appreciate you. Now with that, I'm going to kind of say something else here. No, don't go yet. Don't go yet.

Bruce Norris:

Oh.

Craig Evans:

So this year coming up 2026 is the 20th anniversary of Bruce writing California crash. So that was a report that he mentioned a little bit ago that really changed how you guys function in real estate and being able to learn. And you know your your curve went from here to this, right? Because of the the the knowledge that this man put into a 300 page document. January the 31st of 2026, we will be doing our next timing seminar. We're announcing that here tonight, you're the first ones that know about it. It'll be a two day event. We've it's been a long time since we've been to two days. This will be the 20th anniversary of California Crash, and it's beyond Uncharted. What's next has never happened. Tell me about that, Bruce.

Bruce Norris:

You know, some of the things that are coming our way have never even considered on how that's going to impact. You know, there's some chapters I can't write because I don't have an expertise. Anybody worried about building being taken over by robots? Okay, we have a build. So it's very helpful having discussion with them. There'll be a chapter about that. So how far can that go and how quickly can it get there? You know, that's an important thing that we think they're all going to get built by robots in a little while. It was fun, funny talking to you yesterday, you bring up, hmm, okay, what about this? Like you have a storm and water's everywhere, and your robots haven't dealt with any of that, that type of stuff. So that's just one little piece of what we're going to have. We're going to have a about a day and a half of it.

Craig Evans:

Yep.

Bruce Norris:

And really, the second day will all be all these things that we have never had to consider, AI and job disappearing and things like that. So there's a half a dozen of those chapters where I just have never had to contemplate that being part of the scenario that we have to think about the outcome of what we do. So I'm excited, because, you know what? I love writing new chapters because I study my butt off. So I haven't even written those chapters, but I've had the categories I said, that is something I really need to know. So that's what's exciting about this report. It'll cover all the stuff that we've have for years, expand it to a little bit of a national picture, but then we'll have a bunch of topics that we've never had to even think about, that we better think about. So it'll be fun day and a half.

Craig Evans:

It's gonna be great. Hope you guys will join us January 31, of 2026 bring your friends, bring your mom, bring the milk, man, I don't care, but come it's gonna be a great, great time. And for the first time, also, we will be doing one in Florida in February. So we're excited to be pushing and growing as a company and making sure we're continuing to grow, so.

Bruce Norris:

All right.

Craig Evans:

Bruce, thank you, my friend. All right.

Joey Romero:

Don't forget to visit. I survived real estate for tickets to the event on Friday, September 12. The Norris group would like to thank the following gold sponsors, Keystone CPA, the inland valleys Association of Realtors, Pasadena Phoebe, the North San Diego real estate investors Association, LA South Ria, NorCal Ria, The Wizard of the wobbly box, Andy Teasley, shepherds finance, the Thompson group, property radar and White House catering. The dinner wine is provided with a generous contribution by Rick and Leanne Russell. Hope see you all there.

Narrator:

For more information on hard money loans, trust deed investing, and upcoming events with The Norris group. Check out thenorrisgroup.com. For more information on passive investing through the DBL Capital Real Estate Investment Fund, please visit dblapital.com.

Joey Romero:

The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE license 01219911. Florida mortgage lender license 1577 and NMLS license 1623669. For more information on hard money lending go to thenorrisgroup.com and click the hard money tab.