The Norris Group Real Estate Podcast

I Survived Real Estate Part 7: Final Panel #941

• The Norris Group, Craig Evans

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I SURVIVED REAL ESTATE 2025

The Norris Group Presents: The 18th Annual I Survived Real Estate – LIVE at the Nixon Presidential Library

The Norris Group’s award-winning black-tie gala, I Survived Real Estate, returns for its 18th year.  Since 2008, I Survived Real Estate has supported Make-A-Wish OC & IE—and thanks to your generosity, we’ve now raised over $1.2 million for children in need 

This year’s backdrop?


A California housing market still starved for inventory, mortgage rates hovering above comfort zones, affordability hitting generational lows, inflation and tariffs. Add in global uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the ever-watchful eye of the Federal Reserve—and you’ve got a landscape full of questions.

  • Inventory Drought: California’s housing supply remains critically low
  • Rate Pressure: Mortgage rates linger well above buyer comfort zones
  • Priced Out: Affordability has collapsed to generational lows
  • Global Tensions: War, tariffs, and instability rattle investor confidence
  • Inflation’s Grip: Costs remain stubbornly high, squeezing margins
  • Tariff Troubles: Rising import costs could ripple through construction and development
  • All Eyes on the Fed: Every rate hint could send shockwaves through the market

 Our expert panel brings top minds in economics, investing, and housing to help us prepare for what’s next. I Survived Real Estate was born from crisis, with a mission to unite thought leaders, give back, and guide our industry forward. 


In this episode:

  • Our Final Panel discuss how regional market differences are shaping today’s real estate landscape.
  • A closer look at inflation concerns and the biggest risks investors may be overlooking.
  • Practical strategies for navigating high interest rates and adapting to shifting market conditions.
  • Insights on uncovering overlooked opportunities and tailoring strategies to specific markets.


The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.


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Narrator:

Welcome to The Norris Group real estate podcast, a show committed to bringing you insights from thought leaders shaping the real estate industry. In each episode, we'll dive into conversations with industry experts and local insiders, all aimed at helping you thrive in an ever-changing real estate market. continuing the legacy that Bruce Norris created, sharing valuable knowledge, and empowering you on your real estate journey. Whether you're a seasoned pro or a newcomer, this is your go-to source for insider tips, market trends and success strategies. Here's your host, Craig Evans.

Joey Romero:

The Norris Group is proud to present our 18th annual gala. I Survived Real Estate at The Nixon Presidential Library on Friday, September 12. Since 2008, our event has raised well over a million dollars. This year, we'll be raising funds again from Make-A-Wish OC and IE. Individual Tickets are available now. To get your tickets, go to isurviverealestate.com click the link here in the card. We would like to thank the following platinum sponsors, uDirectIRA Services, The San Diego Creative Investors Association, DouglasBrooke Homes, MVT Productions, Realty411, and DBL

Craig Evans:

And we're going to finish out the evening with just Capital. some questions that I put a lot of thought in and trying to tie this together for everything. One, I want to thank everybody for being here tonight. I want to thank you gentlemen, for putting in your time and giving your thoughts. So I'm going to ask this, and I'll let whoever wants to jump in first go, actually, then I'll start with you, just so we can have a starting when you step back and look...

Bruce Norris:

Don't let Tony go first.

Craig Evans:

What's that?

Bruce Norris:

Don't let Tony go first.

Craig Evans:

No. I'm gonna put Tony on a stopwatch for now. When you step back and look at the economy, lending, supply policy, what do you see as the biggest risk investors are underestimating right now?

Dan Wallach:

Okay, the biggest risk that investors are underestimating right now, I would say, is the need for liquidity. Because as an investor. You need liquidity for two things, one opportunity and two for bad things happening, right? Because, you know, in a bad real estate market, you need liquidity. And in a good real estate market, you know, in other words, when it's really bad and it's going to go up, you need liquidity. So I think generally three reasons that companies go out of business, and one of them is lack of liquidity. So I think that's something that we typically don't spend enough time thinking about.

Oscar Wei:

For me, I think. Is it on? Okay. I think I kind of mentioned it earlier in the back of my mind, I still am a little concerned about what's going to happen with the economy. I still think it's going to be, you know, growth for this year and next year, but there's a possibility that we might actually have a negative growth, you know, in one of the quarters I'm concerned about, that negative economic growth could actually be a little bit bigger than I thought, especially if we actually have any kind of a financial meltdown in the financial market, which I don't think it's going to happen, but there's, there are a lot of uncertainty out there right now, so that's the risk that I'm a little concerned about.

Craig Evans:

Okay.

Doug Duncan:

We're in a period where where prices are diverging regionally and even locally, and so I think, along with the liquidity, I think deep understanding of the markets that you're in is probably important. Because, like I said, you look at Florida on tax in Texas, prices are coming down. In both those markets been the Upper Midwest, there's a lot of markets where prices are so strong. So you really need to know your markets.

Craig Evans:

All right, same thing to you guys. What do you think the biggest risk investors are underestimating right now?

Tony Alvarez:

I'll go last.

Pete Fortunato:

It's unquestionably inflation.

Craig Evans:

Okay?

Pete Fortunato:

I think there's no chance that a fiat currency survives. It used to be they needed to have paper. Now they don't need paper. They just widen the Excel spreadsheet and there's more currency. And so if you don't have capital assets that are income producing to protect yourself against that inflation, you are really undercutting yourself and the people you care about. I am frightened of inflation. I think it's something that people talk. Totally underestimate. I expect the government to just keep taxing people via inflation, because people will not know about inflation. Go back and read the Weimar Republic and see what happened. That's an important and dangerous problem we're facing.

Bruce Norris:

Okay, so there's a there's a gentleman that has spoken in front of fair amount of groups over the last 10 years, Christopher Thornberg, he just made a statement that he expects that interest rates on mortgages, give it 24 months to 30 months, will be nine to 10% and so that's kind of congruent with what you're saying, so. It,now, if that occurs, there's no math, you know, you look at a Mood-O-Meter as a calculation of how much that would cost per month for you to own something with a mortgage at nine if the prices didn't fall for through the floor. So, I mean, that's really something that we haven't had to contemplate. You've had 9% interest rates, but it came at a time where you didn't have you already maxed out. So it's really, you know, and that's part of what the report is going to deal with is okay, if that occurs, what's the math of that? And you know, there's lots of outcomes. You could have a price crash, but a lot of people have mortgages that are less than rent, and it's pretty stable. So I was just talking about this document in an hour today with another really serious investor, and I'm wondering, if you don't have, let's say, in California, in a boom cycle, you go, you have 450,000 sales. And one of the things we predicted is, if you know, if mortgages stay up, and they don't do different types of policies, like letting the mortgage go forward, that's there at two and 3% to a new buyer, that you could have a 250,000 sales instead of 450 that has occurred. So I'm thinking, Okay, you give this market a 9% mortgage rate? I'm wondering if you'll be at 120,000 sales. I don't know that you'd have tons of foreclosures, but I think you'd have how many people could buy at this median price? Very few people. So what that means is, when we made that statement, we got to meet Doug Duncan, gave me a chance to speak to the CEO, Fannie Mae for an hour and a half, and that was the discussion, if you don't let these mortgages walk to the next buyer, you basically are guaranteeing that the industry, the real estate industry, is going to be 40% unemployed when you go from 450,000 commission checks to 25,0 40% of the revenue has gone out of the industry. So if that's what's next, you got to contemplate, okay, what do we do with that? Because that could be a very big factor for revenue. You're going to have more foreclosures. But I don't know that it would fall off the cliff. I just don't.

Tony Alvarez:

You know, we've had high interest rates like that before, and higher the 1980s at that thing. Think that's where Peter Fortunato actually was born, and that that. But okay, so what happened when that happened? I mean, it houses still needed to be sold and and people still needed to buy, you know? So I don't remember all of the details of the 1980s because I was...

Bruce Norris:

I just, can I fill in just some of the blanks? Okay, so you had, you did have a run up. You had seven and a half to go. Let's say interest rates about 74.

Tony Alvarez:

Yeah.

Bruce Norris:

Go up to 15 or so.

Tony Alvarez:

Okay.

Bruce Norris:

Okay, but there was margin, and the prices tripled during that journey.

Tony Alvarez:

Right. Exactly.

Bruce Norris:

So it didn't impact the price negatively. They kept on buying, and the volume went crazy. But then you reached that first 17% affordability, and you were, you were done at that point, and the affordability gradually built up because interest rates went down. That was really how that happened.

Tony Alvarez:

Right.

Bruce Norris:

But when you say you had interest rates, you didn't, you weren't starting at 70% Mood-O-Meter, and then have a interest rate hike that goes 50% higher that we had, that we've never absorbed.

Tony Alvarez:

Okay, so, so, like, for example, this year in because I usually, I'm usually in small, tiny markets, you know, the Antelope Valley.

Bruce Norris:

Right.

Tony Alvarez:

And then I go up to Oregon, and I'm and I'm in Grants Pass, which is even smaller, and so I can't, and what I got into was I got into just not buying rehabs and stuff like that anymore. But I got into like, just building little, you know, buying an older house, tearing it down, and building little subdivision, like 11 lots. Some two to four units, and specializing in renting to people over 50 and 60 and stuff like that. I don't want kids and dogs and all that stuff anymore. It's tenants. And I've had it all. I've had all kinds of tenants, but that's what I like to do nowadays. I build all one story units. They're all for seniors, that kind of thing. But I still run across properties that I want to buy. So I decided, because we've all been talking about, like you mentioned, about the, you know, the generations are getting older also, you know, because you have younger generations coming up, but then you got guys like us, right? We're sitting around with a bunch of real estate. And, you know, in Oregon, there's a lot of seniors that have a ton of real estate, and they don't want to, they really don't want to own it anymore. And a lot of them don't want to manage it, and they don't want to give it to property management, because they get ripped off all the time and all that. So I just sent out a simple letter asking, you know, 'Are you interested in selling it to me and doing it to where you don't have to pay all the capital gains on your because you have zero, you know, you've depreciated the hell out of it, so you got zero basis and all that'. So I get older folks to call me back up, and I go, and I sit down with them, you know, and I have a conversation, and we cut deals, and I buy their stuff, and they carry the mortgages. I don't think I have anything less than a 20 year mortgage. And I tell them, I would, you know, the interest rate that I'm going to give them is what I can afford to do, and it's usually around the fours, and, you know, and those deals happen, and they do it because, it's a good thing for them to do. They're getting a stream of income, which is all they want, and they're usually their biggest thing is, I won't take a dime less than what I'm getting for rent right now. So don't try to, you know. And I say, No, let's do the numbers and see if it'll work. And we do it to make sure that they get, you know, I usually give them $100 more per month than what they're getting right now. And everything is great. So there's conversations that we have about the economy and big things and big numbers and stuff like that. But the real estate business, to me, has always come down to a small conversation in a small area between myself and some other folks, and as long as I can figure a way to make that work, and that's been my little thing for Glenn, in case, you know, there's seniors everywhere, and they own, a lot of them own real estate. You can look it up. I think you can still do that in California, where you can get information on properties and people that own them free and clear, and you can look and see how long they've had them, if they've had them for, you know, 30 years, they may be in the market for talking to you to do something like that, and they'll carry the mortgage for you. And a lot of times, like the last one I did, I did with zero down, all I did was offer to pay the closing cost, because Edith decided to carry 100% of the mortgage for me for 20 years. So I don't know, I try not to complicate it the conversation too much for myself in real estate, because, if not, I get scared, and I don't want to get scared, so.

Craig Evans:

All right, so you've helped me pivot, because, you know, we started that talking about, what's the risks? And as I'm sitting here, you know, I can feel we got one side that is looking at, predominantly from, how do we put a deal together? How do we do this? How do we creatively finance all of the things here? And we got financial minds that are looking at, you know, what are the balance sheets looks like? What's the forecasting, what's interest rates? So I'm anxious to see, as we go back through, what I'd like to hear from each of you, and you know, you kind of help start to pivot this. What do you think is the biggest overlooked opportunity over the next two years that investors need to be looking at. I want to make sure, as these people walk out tonight, that it's, telling stories is great. I'll make sure we've got ideas of what they need to be looking at.

Bruce Norris:

Can I go first?

Craig Evans:

Absolutely.

Bruce Norris:

Okay. In 2015 I'm going to interview Doug Duncan on a radio show. And so I read the Fannie Mae's financials for the fourth quarter of 2015 and as I read it, I read that one state represents 25% of Fannie Mae's losses: Florida. And I'm like, wow, how is that? And then I delve into Florida, and I find out they have a four year foreclosure process. They're still in 2011, so what do I do? I call my buddy who lives in Orlando. I said, let's buy building lots. I'll build my rentals. So we bought the building lots for nothing, because it was the product that was not desired. Right now, you have a lot of builders that are having trouble half built houses and stuff like that. I guess I would look at optioning dirt. You and I talked about that, because that category, first of all, it's an that's a pretty, if it's really dirt, there's people that don't want what they have. So it's one of those categories that I like to go shopping for when no one else wants it. And you could tell me, is there a lot of people chasing project dirt or finished lots that are just like sitting there?

Craig Evans:

No.

Bruce Norris:

Okay, well, that would be, you know, that's how I think.

Craig Evans:

Yeah, good.

Bruce Norris:

That is how I think

Craig Evans:

Pete you wanna do that?

Pete Fortunato:

I think there's clearly a giant opportunity for people who can manage. You got older people who have properties. Tony's just talking about the properties he's seen from his friends and up in his area. And many of them have attractive financing on or no financing on them, but they don't know how to take care of them. Their children don't know how to take care of them. The biggest estate planning problem I'm seeing in my peers is that they haven't introduced their family to the responsibility of managing the investment properties they have so they pass. It doesn't matter how fancy their estate plan is. If their people are afraid or don't know what payments to make or when to make it, there's an opportunity to manage for others, people who are fed up and enable them to keep the properties and make a profit in so doing. And if you're the one who's managing it, you're first in line when the day comes they want to sell it. I think that management is desperately needed now among a lot of people, a lot of the older people in America who have those 3% loans and have a job transfer have to go out of state. And you heard the panel earlier they said, are they going to keep it or rent it, or are they going to sell it? Well, most people would like to keep that 3% rate rather than go out and get new financing, and they don't know enough to go out and make some friends where they can borrow less than 7 and so those people need somebody to take care of that property in order for them to retain that property that's got the 3% encumbered.

Tony Alvarez:

Well, I'm not, I'm just gonna say that, you know that we all have to look, we're market specific, right? So everybody's gonna look at what their target markets are, you know, what is, San Diego's is not Grants Pass, you know, and everything is different. But I looked at that opportunity in my market, and I actually got, I kind of got my attention when I was looking at a specific building that I wanted to buy. There were actually eight of them, and I ended up with five to control the association and stuff like that. But the last building I got was as a result of this older lady calling me because I sent so many letters, and it was like, 'Are you the guy that break my legs if I don't sell you my building?' You know, that kind of thing she was, she was a joker, you know. But we ended up having a discussion. I went to see her, and it was very, it was a really interesting conversation. And she's become a friend, you know. And she's in her 80s, but she's sharp as a whip. She does the checkbook for her ladies club and her church. But I found that that woke me up. I started thinking, well, there's got to be, I mean, Grants Pass. It's retirement heaven. And Bruce, by the way, is the one who got me to start buying in that market. I want you to know I was going up there for 30 years. It was the place I went to get away from real estate. And he did a class years ago when he was going to Florida. And there was a segment in the classes that target class, and somebody in the audience asked, 'So, Bruce, where are you going with your stuff?' And he goes, Well, there's two markets in the United States right now that have a positive net migration. I was sitting in the back talking to somebody not paying attention, I apologize. And Sabrina was next to me, my assistant. And Bruce says, Well, I'm going to go. And he clicks the thing. He goes, 'there's two markets. Number one is Florida'. And then he looks out, he goes,'Is Tony Alvarez in this room?' And Sabrina hits me. She goes,'Hey, stupid. He's talking to you'. And I said, 'What?' He goes, 'Are you still in Oregon?', 'Yeah'. 'Well, hope you're buying because you're number two'. Now the whole country. I thought it would have been Nevada, Texas, something like that. The only reason I'm mentioning that is because The Norris Group, Bruce Norris and the Norris group, have indeed had an impact on my life, financially and otherwise. But make no mistake, if, Bruce would not, had not entered my life, my finances would not have gone to the place that they went to. And I have to say that every single time I get on a stage where I get in my hand and I get in front of an audience, because it's just too important to not to say it and not to remind you guys of all the time, all time, because we become, you know, we become kind of arrogant. We think we made all the money ourselves and all that. That's nonsense. And by the way, when I was ready to get out of the Antelope Valley the first time, and I went to see him, and I said, I'm done. I'm getting out of here. I went from nothing, and I got like, well, I don't want to talk into numbers. It sounds like you're bragging, right, but 10 million, it got to 10 million from zero. And I said, Man, I'm out of here. And Bruce looked at me, and he went, I said, 'What?' He goes, 'You, you better sit tight, because your market isn't over yet'. I just bought some lots up in some place that I got a couple of years ago for nothing, and I'm about to start building houses. And that was a life changing decision for me. It was in the millions of dollars that I made, and I didn't have to buy another house. I didn't have to do just have to sit tight and do nothing but manage the stuff I already had.

Joey Romero:

Don't forget to visit isurvivedrealestate.com for tickets to the event on Friday, September 12. The Norris Group would like to thank the following Gold sponsors, Keystone CPA, The Inland Valleys Association of Realtors, Pasadena FIBI, The North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, LA south REIA, NorCal REIA, The Wizard of the Wobbly Box, Andy Teasley, Shepherd's Finance, The Thompson Group, PropertyRadar and White House Catering. The dinner wine is provided with a generous contribution by Rick and Leanne Rossiter. Hope see you all there.

Narrator:

For more information on hard money loans, trust deed investing, and upcoming events with The Norris group. Check out thenorrisgroup.com. For more information on passive investing through the DBL Capital Real Estate Investment Fund, please visit dblapital.com.

Joey Romero:

The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE license 01219911. Florida mortgage lender license 1577 and NMLS license 1623669. For more information on hard money lending go to thenorrisgroup.com and click the hard money tab.