The Norris Group Real Estate Podcast

I Survived Real Estate Part 8: Final Panel (continuation) #942

• The Norris Group, Craig Evans

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I SURVIVED REAL ESTATE 2025

The Norris Group Presents: The 18th Annual I Survived Real Estate – LIVE at the Nixon Presidential Library

The Norris Group’s award-winning black-tie gala, I Survived Real Estate, returns for its 18th year.  Since 2008, I Survived Real Estate has supported Make-A-Wish OC & IE—and thanks to your generosity, we’ve now raised over $1.2 million for children in need 

This year’s backdrop?


A California housing market still starved for inventory, mortgage rates hovering above comfort zones, affordability hitting generational lows, inflation and tariffs. Add in global uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the ever-watchful eye of the Federal Reserve—and you’ve got a landscape full of questions.

  • Inventory Drought: California’s housing supply remains critically low
  • Rate Pressure: Mortgage rates linger well above buyer comfort zones
  • Priced Out: Affordability has collapsed to generational lows
  • Global Tensions: War, tariffs, and instability rattle investor confidence
  • Inflation’s Grip: Costs remain stubbornly high, squeezing margins
  • Tariff Troubles: Rising import costs could ripple through construction and development
  • All Eyes on the Fed: Every rate hint could send shockwaves through the market

 Our expert panel brings top minds in economics, investing, and housing to help us prepare for what’s next. I Survived Real Estate was born from crisis, with a mission to unite thought leaders, give back, and guide our industry forward. 


In this episode:

  • Bruce Norris and Tony Alvarez share their insights on market timing and how investors can make smarter moves in changing conditions.
  • Expert predictions on where the real estate market is heading through 2025 and into 2026.
  • Final reflections from our panel on lessons learned, future outlooks, and the mindset needed to thrive in any market.


The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.


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Narrator:

Welcome to The Norris Group real estate podcast, a show committed to bringing you insights from thought leaders shaping the real estate industry. In each episode, we'll dive into conversations with industry experts and local insiders, all aimed at helping you thrive in an ever-changing real estate market. continuing the legacy that Bruce Norris created, sharing valuable knowledge, and empowering you on your real estate journey. Whether you're a seasoned pro or a newcomer, this is your go-to source for insider tips, market trends and success strategies. Here's your host, Craig Evans.

Joey Romero:

The Norris Group is proud to present our 18th annual gala. I Survived Real Estate at The Nixon Presidential Library on Friday, September 12. Since 2008, our event has raised well over a million dollars. This year, we'll be raising funds again from Make-A-Wish OC and IE. Individual Tickets are available now. To get your tickets, go to isurviverealestate.com click the link here in the card. We would like to thank the following platinum sponsors, uDirectIRA Services, The San Diego Creative Investors Association, DouglasBrooke Homes, MVT Productions, Realty411, and DBL Capital.

Bruce Norris:

Here's the funny end of that story. So the cycle ends, and now I call it...

Tony Alvarez:

Houses he sold for like 300 grand at the peak of the market, and out in the middle of the desert nowhere,

Bruce Norris:

So I call him up as they go, okay, Tony. Pull the plug. Get rid of them. He's like, Okay, how many? How many of these do I have to sell a month? Like, I've got, I said...

Tony Alvarez:

I wanted a specific date.

Bruce Norris:

...I said, 'It's time'.

Tony Alvarez:

But I want you to know, follow the bouncing ball, the houses that he built there were, like, I don't know. Some of them sold for like, 375,00, 350. I forget what the heck it was. It's crazy numbers out in Rosamond, which I don't know. If you guys don't know where that is, it's a good thing. You don't know there's only one off ramp off in that place. And I don't even know where it goes. Anyways, I bought a lot of those houses back for 30 grand, like, a year, two years, whatever the heck it was.

Bruce Norris:

Yeah, they sold at the peak, they sold for 300 grand.

Tony Alvarez:

For 300 grand.

Bruce Norris:

Yeah, and buy it for 30.

Tony Alvarez:

30 grand. I used to send him the pictures of the thing. I'd say, 'Got another one. Hey, I like the roof on this one'.

Bruce Norris:

Okay. This is how important timing is. So somebody had created 120 lots in that area in like 1980.

Tony Alvarez:

Right.

Bruce Norris:

'80. '85, something like that. I bought those for, Now, This is a finished building lot, single, loaded with streets and sewers and everything for three grand, a lot, and I just held them, waiting for the charts to tell me I had time to build them out and I would sell them close to the peak of the price. So that's why I drug my feet. And at that same time, Tony was saying 'I got to get out of here'. I said,'Well, that's interesting decision, because I'm waiting intentionally, because I can tell you and that what I was looking for, one of the important things is migration'. And there's a silly way to understand where migration is going. Price out of U-Haul, not a U-, yeah, U-Haul, going from like Lancaster to somewhere, and that somewhere back to Lancaster, the price will be 10 times in one direction, because when it lands in Lancaster and everybody's migrating there, that truck has nowhere to go. It has to be, you know, driven by anyway, so that tells you where people are going. So I watched that, and I drag my feet and started when I knew there was time for the affordability, and so we maxed that out, but that, you know, that was, like, very strategic. And Tony met me at about, and it was kind of fun, you know, because I was like, I'm doing the opposite of what you think is the best, you know. Okay.

Craig Evans:

All right, so as we start to final out, I'm going to change directions here. I want to hear the one of the things that I want to hear that we don't often do, that I'm hoping you guys will put up with me on, is, what do you see and predict for the rest of this year and into 2026? Whether it's economics, whether it's housing, what do you see for predictions for the state of our country and our and our economy and our housing market? Why don't we start with Doug, and we'll just work our way straight down through that.

Doug Duncan:

I know nothing about prediction. Except for three rules, right? First of all, in terms of what's to be optimistic, every human being on the planet puts their head down on a piece of real estate of some type every night. So real estate's always part of the human condition, so you're in a business that's essential for the human condition, so that you can always be optimistic about that. Trends come and go, but to me, that's why I stayed in real estate all my career. For the rest of this year, there'll be a pickup in refinancing, obviously. There's a lot of folks that have seven to 8% mortgages, and the mortgage rates now down around six and a quarter. So you're going to see stories about pickups in refinance activity. But I think sales will be relatively flat for the rest of the year and into next year. I think the Bruce is absolutely right. It takes time for people to make, to conclude that the potential of things staying in the future state that it's heading for is sustainable enough for them to take the risk to make a move relative to that trend line. So I think it will take some time to build momentum.

Oscar Wei:

I think one thing that we probably can be certain about is there will be a lot more uncertainty. That's for sure. But you know, I do believe that even though we are have seen maybe in the last few weeks, interest rates have come down since the beginning of August. I do think there might be still a little bit more fluctuation in terms of interest rates. But by the end of the year, I do, I still think that it's going to be maybe a little bit below what we're at right now, just a little bit, not, not significantly lower. So let's say, if you look at the Mortgage News Daily numbers, it's at 6.3 right now, it could be somewhere around 6.2. I also agree with Bruce that, you know, sales, I said it earlier, sales, it will improve, but it's not going to change a whole lot, because, you know, fluctuations of interest rate is going to continue. But I do believe that I asked also mentioned earlier, we have seen three consecutive months of decline and price, but I do believe that it's going to start inching up, inching up, not, you know, not surging, inching up, but you know, it's, we're way past, you know, the peak price for this year. Peak price for this year was, you know, April 2025, so we still see some inching up. As far as optimism, I think you can see, you know, whether it be general consumer optimism or as well as housing sentiment, they could be actually seeing in different directions. Like today, earlier today, I think consumer sentiment actually dipped a little bit. But if you look at the housing sentiment, it actually might start picking up slightly. Of course, it depends on how things go for interest rates, as far as well as you know, price go. But I think it could start picking up a little bit, but I don't think, again, it's not going to see a significant surge. Think it's going to take some time for things to grow, but I do see a little bit of positive towards the end of the year. Hopefully you'll build on it, and then 2026 will be a little bit better.

Dan Wallach:

Okay, I think my view on things is that if you look at the upper level homes, you know, the homes that people buy that don't really worry about mortgage payment, not saying they don't have one, but just saying they don't worry about it, I think that market is going to be good through the end of next year. I think the mid market is going to be difficult until the, you know, middle of next year. And then I think that market will start to have value increase and demand increase. And then I think the lower market, you know, which is the starter home market, is going to be good for a while. I would be, you know, a little scared of at the end of next year, of where that is, because it's more about the comparison between rent and what you can get something for if you own it. And I'm not really sure that rents are going to continue to rise forever. So I guess my view would be, in general, housing starts go up in the second half of next year, and that'll coincide with some sort of nice situation, at least in the mid level houses of pricing.

Tony Alvarez:

I'll defer to you.

Bruce Norris:

Okay, all right.

Craig Evans:

That's only if you're closing. You don't get to take all night.

Tony Alvarez:

No, no, I'm not.

Craig Evans:

Okay.

Bruce Norris:

I forgot the question.

Tony Alvarez:

...I'm gonna used up here. I know if I like this.

Bruce Norris:

I'm gonna tell a real estate story.

Tony Alvarez:

Picked on the Hispanic guy night.

Bruce Norris:

So in 2006 I write a report called the California Crash. And I made a phone call the guy that had a really good rental, and we had a conversation, and I told him, I'm not your typical rental. Pay a year in advance. And he said,'That sounds really great, do you mind if I ask you a question?' I said, 'Oh, go ahead'. He said, 'Do you have any pets?' And there was a pause, and I remembered why I was a homeowner, that no one got to ask me that question. And I said, 'I'm so glad you asked that question, because I forgot that I don't want anybody to get to ask that anymore'. So I probably sold that house for four or $500,000 less because I sold it a few years later, and I could care less. I put that kind of weight on home ownership because I got married at 17 when I bought my first home and mowed my grass for the first time, I cried. I felt like a man. So that's what home ownership means to me. It's not a math formula. And I think a lot of people need to think that way. You know that that that's a big deal. And I didn't care about losing the money. Once I realized that's what it meant to me, I wasn't going anywhere. So I just wanted to tell that story.

Pete Fortunato:

I think there's going to be continuing problems for people, and when they have a problem, whatever that might be, whatever that problem might be, that problem gives you an opportunity. I've bought properties because people have had a job transfer and the house that they loved became an anchor, keeping them from traveling 1000 miles to take the better job. I've bought houses from people whose doctors said you can't do stairs any longer, and I traded that lady a condo in an elevated building so she could stay in the community, and I got a nice house, but it was the problem of the doctor saying'you can't do stairs', that meant that house became available. It was the problem or the opportunity to go take another job. I talked last night about the lady who called me and said, 12 years ago, my daughter came to visit me here in Florida, and she's still here. And in order to get her house, what I had to do was get her daughter, her sister, out of her house so she could then go marry the guy who wanted to marry her but did not want her sister to come with her. Well, those are problems. They're very real problems, and they're not things that get covered in the national numbers. They're a very important emotional situation that people are struggling with, and if you care enough, you can help other people. The big deal you have is you have to promise yourself that you're going to live your life so you can be proud and you can go out and make a difference in the lives of others and make a difference for yourself. Or when my grandson, when he was only nine, said to me, 'Grampy, what do you do anyway?' I said, 'Luca, we acquire nice houses in nice neighborhoods that we rent to nice people who take care of those houses and pay us to live there'. And he said, 'That's a good idea'. And I said, 'That's right, but you can be telling your children those things. You have a responsibility to pass it on, to pass it down, and to bring other people along with you. You've walked this trail ahead of them, and your job is to build a life you can be proud of your life is your fault. You need to tell people that you need to feel that, and you can go out and make a difference in the world and we do it one person at a time, as we help people with problems, one family at a time'.

Bruce Norris:

Very cool.

Craig Evans:

All right, I'm gonna give you the opportunity.

Tony Alvarez:

No, no, no, I'm gonna, I'm gonna make it short, okay? Because basically, when it comes to market timing and figuring out, what do I know, what's going to happen this year? I don't have a clue. Okay, all I know is, like, like, at the beginning, when you asked the first question, you know what happened? He said, what did Doug say? Yeah, today is gonna go up or down. It's one of the two, right? So for me, I have the same fears as everybody else. I mean, you just heard Bruce say that somebody who's very well respected and who doesn't take his own opinion too lightly said interest rates could be at nine or 10% within 30 months or so, right, right? I mean, that's enough to make you want to move to the moon. But I still got to do business in my area, so I still got to figure out a way around all and I deal with this stuff every day. I go to my bank. I deal with two banks in my area. I visit them every week. It, they have a cup of free coffee, maybe sometimes cookies. You know, lot of cookies. Okay, but so I don't know what's coming, but I know I can handle and I can weather whatever it is that's going to happen. Peter, if you've been listening to everything Peter said tonight, he doesn't, I know he knows everything about the interest rates, everything about the interest rates, everything else is going on, but I don't think he cares. He's out there creating his own markets. Every each one of us can do the same thing in the same markets. I hope you're paying attention there, Glenn.Bruce, if I want to know about market timing, I'm coming to The Norris Group. That's it. And I hope you heard that loud and clear, because the majority of the growth in the wealth that I have had was created as a result of my relationship with Bruce Norris and The Norris Group, period. I can't say anything else about that, it's the truth. And you know, it's the truth. I chased you around like a nutcase, right? Anything he said. I wrote it down. I went and I did something. I took action. Take action. Glenn, if you fall on your face, just get up and keep doing it again and again and again. I guess that's it. It's all I gotta say. And I appreciate you guys inviting me here, because I am like, I am like, so all classed and bold. Tell you what.

Bruce Norris:

Yeah.

Tony Alvarez:

This is something else. This is something, the Cuban kid, no, 10 million was the first step I got. I got way more money. Well, that's another story. That's a whole other story, though. Anyways, thank you.

Craig Evans:

Tell you, if you will, if you give these gentlemen a hand. It's an honor to stand up here and to be with men like this and last year, women like this and and to be able to teach and to try to help others grow in their career. You know, as I was preparing for this, obviously, there's a lot of things that's happened in our world, in our country in the last few days that have made things a little heavier, of how we deal with people. And one of the things that has struck me is we can talk about interest rates. We can talk about, you know, how do we negotiate? We can talk about the deal, what the house looks like, on and on and on. But one of the interesting strategies, if we're honest and we listen, is that it's about people. And what I saw this week in our in our world, in our country, is that we're becoming a group of people that are willing to turn around and choose death instead of life. My hope for us as a group of people, and for the industry that we're all so passionate about, whether we're realtors, whether we're investors, whether developers, Business Owners,helping people invest through IRAs, everything that we do. My hope and prayer is that we actually give a crap about the people next to us. We may not like them, there's a lot of people I don't like, but I still choose to help. My hope and prayer is that as a group of people, if you're paying attention to what we do with The Norris Group and with everything else that we've got, my hope and prayer is that you'll see we want to be a group of people, and I hope that's you, that if we say we bleed red, white and blue, that we will bleed that and, but in that process, we will care about the people around us. But all that, I say, Thank you for the day, thank you for the evening, and we'll see you next year. Thank you guys.

Joey Romero:

Don't forget to visit isurvivedrealestate.com for tickets to the event on Friday, September 12. The Norris Group would like to thank the following Gold sponsors, Keystone CPA, The Inland Valleys Association of Realtors, Pasadena FIBI, The North San Diego Real Estate Investors Association, LA south REIA, NorCal REIA, The Wizard of the Wobbly Box, Andy Teasley, Shepherd's Finance, The Thompson Group, PropertyRadar and White House Catering. The dinner wine is provided with a generous contribution by Rick and Leanne Rossiter. Hope see you all there.

Narrator:

For more information on hard money loans, trust deed investing, and upcoming events with The Norris group. Check out thenorrisgroup.com. For more information on passive investing through the DBL Capital Real Estate Investment Fund, please visit dblapital.com.

Joey Romero:

The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE license 01219911. Florida mortgage lender license 1577 and NMLS license 1623669. For more information on hard money lending go to thenorrisgroup.com and click the hard money tab.