Episode 08- The Race for the White House 2020 with Leah Askarinam

In this first of three episodes about the 2020 General Election, our host, Paul A. Smith, speaks with Leah Askarinam, Hotline Editor-in-Chief of the National Journal in Washington D.C., about the 2020 Race for the White House.

Examining polling trends and the current national climate, Leah and Paul provide a state-by-state look at the Electoral College and discuss the likelihood of President Trump's ability to win the White House and whether President Trump could lose the popular vote and still win the presidency.

Listen in to this insightful conversation, and if you want to keep up with the math of the election map, grab a pen and paper and follow along.

Subscribe today and watch for the next episode in our National Election series when Leah and Paul discuss the race for control of the United States Senate, followed by another release when they will discuss happening with respect to the House of Representatives.

For more about the National Journal, check it out on the web here: nationaljournal.com

Transcript

INTRO: [00:00:00] 
Welcome to Hometown California, a production of the Rural County Representatives of California, advocating for California's rural counties for nearly 50 years. Hometown California tells the rural story through the eyes of those who live, work, and play in the rural communities. 

PAUL: [00:00:25] 
This is Hometown California. I'm your host, Paul Smith. Joining me today is Leah Askarinam from the National Journal based in Washington, D.C. Leah is the Hotline Editor-in-Chief at that National Journal, a great publication, if you haven't taken a look at it. And in that role, Leah does some great work following national politics, and that's what we're gonna do today. So welcome, Leah. Thanks so much for joining me. 

LEAH: [00:00:47]
Thanks so much for having me. 

PAUL: [00:00:49] 
Leah is no stranger to RCRC. We met her earlier this year on our trip to Washington, D.C., where a number of supervisors from RCRC's executive team and leadership met with her and discussed a lot of what we're going to discuss today. This is the first of three podcasts in our series on the national election. You're going to focus today on the Electoral College and the race for the White House, seeing if Donald Trump can get reelected. And we're going to do this by way of looking at the map of the election. We'll take a state-by-state look at the Electoral College and assess Donald Trump's ability to hold onto the White House. That should be a lot of fun with Leah. And then we're going to do a second podcast (it'll be released after a couple of days)  on the race for control of the United States Senate. And then finally, we'll wrap it up with another release on the House of Representatives. All very, very exciting. So, Leah, are you ready to chat about this? 

LEAH: [00:01:40] 
Absolutely. 

PAUL: [00:01:41] 
It's going to be very, very fun. I think it will start with kind of the obvious in the room, which is four years ago, nobody saw an election like Donald Trump's victory. No one saw it coming. And I think as much as we look at polls and have seen a very unconventional president over the last three plus years, it looks as though we may be headed to a very unconventional election this November. 

LEAH: [00:02:04] 
Oh, yeah. I mean, first off, we have an incredibly unconventional president. So it's really hard to follow a historical playbook at this point. And then you add on top of that the pandemic. Add on top of that, issues with the post office, a president who takes to Twitter to decry mail-in voting protests around the country against racism and police shootings. It seems like every time we have a handle on what this election will be about, something else happens in the national scene, which is making it in a lot of ways really difficult to kind of handicap. But in other ways, I mean, if you're looking just at the key indicators-- in other words, polling-- it's a little bit easier because the numbers have been pretty consistent at least since the pandemic broke out. 

PAUL: [00:02:52] 
Yeah, we're going to go through a lot of polling data, at least for the month of August. Both look back at 2016 and the month of August and now 2020 and see some polling of it and compare it. But with respect to polling, there's been a lot of doubt that particularly the national polls, but even some state-by-state polls, about the reliability. Do you think the polling has improved since four years ago when a lot of the pollsters got it wrong and the entire pundit class just didn't see it coming? 

LEAH: [00:03:21] 
So part of what happened in 2016 was an issue with actual polling. And obviously pollsters who are paid to conduct polls for a living have adjusted some of their weighting to make up for the mistakes of 2016. But I think the bigger issue is how we decide to read polls. So, we can look at national polls all we want and try to guess what that means for the Electoral College. But in the end, it's these state-by-state polls that matter. And it's not one individual poll that we should be looking at. It's trends of polls. I would prefer, you know, as much polling of Minnesota and Michigan as possible rather than, you know, a dozen national polls just because that's more likely to affect the outcome of the 2020 race. 

PAUL: [00:04:07] 
You talked to a lot of closet Trump supporters who look at these polls and they handicap anywhere from three to five percent based on the notion that Trump supporters just aren't telling pollsters that they're voting for Trump. Do you buy into that? 

LEAH: [00:04:20] 
No, no, I don't really. And I think that there's obviously a margin of error that needs to be taken into account. But if you're looking at the actual Biden numbers, I think that's maybe more important at this point than looking at the Trump numbers. So even when we're seeing five or six point margin in some of these polls, I'm looking at Joe Biden getting 49 percent or 48 percent or topping 50 percent. From there, the exact percentage of Trump supporters doesn't matter quite as much because what we're looking at is what the majority is. So first off, you look at that big Democratic number and that should be a pretty good indicator. And second, you look at undecided voters who tend to in presidential years, when it comes to incumbents or just comes to wanting change, are more likely to go against the incumbent. So historically, we can probably guess that those independent voters are going to side, at least to an extent, with Joe Biden. So looking just at the Democratic numbers, that should give you enough of a sense of where Democrats advantage is. 

PAUL: [00:05:23] 
So let's talk about the Electoral College map for a minute. And for those that are listening, I would encourage you to grab a pen and piece of paper and follow the math of how we're going to do this. So we're going to first talk about the predetermined states. I like to call them the electorally predetermined states. And let's start with, I think, what is a smaller list, and that is what is reliably blue and what we expect to be reliably blue in 2020. And those states are Washington, Hawaii, Oregon, California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia. Now, I know some people might say, "Well, maybe not New Hampshire," and we'll we'll talk about New Hampshire in a minute. But if you look at some of the historical trends and things like that, I'm going to put New Hampshire in the solid blue column. 

LEAH: [00:06:23] 
I think that's a wise decision. I'm on your side there. 

PAUL: [00:06:25]
On the red side, this is a longer list, obviously, but does not comprise the population that those blue states do. So Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and West Virginia. Now, some people will say, "Well, not so fast on Montana, maybe not so fast on Texas, maybe not so fast on Georgia." But I will just submit if Montana, Texas or Georgia or any one of those states goes blue than the rest of this conversation is probably over and we'll thank Leah for her time. But I think the bottom line is those are pretty reliably Republican red states. Do you dispute any of that, Leah? 

LEAH: [00:07:20] 
They are reliably red states, but a few of them are also battlegrounds. Texas is a battleground. Whether or not you would think that Texas is vulnerable. That's a different question. But it is a state where a lot of money is going in to, where Democrats are targeting it on the Senate, they're targeting the state House and, obviously with that, the presidency. And it does look like Joe Biden is making more of an effort in Texas this year than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Kind of along those same lines, Alaska, Montana to an extent, but really more Georgia and maybe South Carolina. Those are also home to some pretty competitive Senate races, which means that they're not just getting presidential attention, they're getting Senate attention. In some of them they're getting some congressional attention as well. So I wouldn't necessarily count those out as battleground states, though. I think that calling them reliably red is also definitely fair. 

PAUL: [00:08:16] 
Yeah. So if you add up the electorally predetermines states, you have 223 Democrat electors and 180 Republican electors. That leaves one hundred thirty five electors up for grabs in the tossup states. Keep in mind, one needs 270 electors to claim the White House. Let's go over those tossup states. I think that's, again for those people playing at home get your pen ready. We'll start with Arizona, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and, of course, the perennial favorite of the undecided states: Florida. Have any dispute there Leah? 

LEAH: [00:08:55] 
No, that sounds great to me, I'm sure... I mean, it's a little bit surprising that we're talking about Ohio. And it's also kind of surprising that we're talking about Minnesota. But we should be talking about those. I just don't know if I would have guessed that, you know, six months ago. 

PAUL: [00:09:08] 
Yeah, yeah. I'd like to look at Ohio is definitely one that leans Republican. It used to be somewhat blue, somewhat purple. It just seems to be trending republican. The president carried it quite handsomely 51.7 to 43.6 In 2016. A big margin. Probably gonna get into that when we talk about what I like to tease people with, which is a realignment of the Electoral College, because that list we just provided folks for the most part for the last 20, 30, maybe even going back into the Reagan years, that has been pretty much the blueprint to work from in a national election. So let's talk about these battleground states and we'll start with what I like to call the 2016 surprise states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I like to tell people when I get asked who's going to win, I say Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. It's all about Pennsylvania. We've done an averaging of August polls and we've looked at where Biden is relative to where Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was four years ago. And if you look at national polling firms into Pennsylvania, Mr. Biden's a little bit down from where Ms. Clinton was. Ms. Clinton, in an averaging of the polls that we've looked at and we've looked about six of them that were done publicly, Ms. Clinton had almost a 9 percent average for the month of August, whereby Mr. Biden is at 6.3 ahead. Do you buy into that? Do you think that's means that Pennsylvania could go to the president versus these numbers showing that he's winning it by six points? 

LEAH: [00:10:39] 
So I'd want to look at the ceiling for Democrats-- what Joe Biden, what his average has been in those six polls. I mean, Pennsylvania is a battleground. Joe Biden does not have that one in the bag necessarily. I mean, it does seem like he has had a bit of an advantage there, but he's obviously approaching it as a battleground, as is Donald Trump. When you look at the realignment, which we will, I guess, talk about later, there's two questions there. One, at what point does white working-class Pennsylvania start moving in even greater droves toward Republicans, which has already started happening and will happen more if our current political environment remains relatively steady from, you know, the past 20 years or so. But it's also, what are these suburban voters going to do outside of Philadelphia, for example? And I know people are probably tired of hearing about suburban Philadelphia voters determining the election, but still a pretty important group, whether or not it's cliche. So, I mean, when you're looking at Biden's advantage with suburban voters, it does seem like he'd have a bit of an advantage in Pennsylvania. But your average seems to show that it's a little bit closer than he might like. 

PAUL: [00:11:46] 
Don't you think Pennsylvania's not going to necessarily be determined by suburban Philly or maybe even suburban Pittsburgh, but African-American turnout in Philly? It seemed like that really, really hurt Mrs. Clinton four years ago, is that African-American voters, particularly in central Detroit, central Philly, that that was one of the biggest factors of why she lost Michigan and she lost Pennsylvania. 

LEAH: [00:12:09] 
I think it's a combination. I mean, she also lost Wisconsin because she didn't go there the last month. So there's more than one factor there. Right now D onald Trump is obviously continuing to lose with black voters, but he doesn't seem to be falling further behind than he did in 2016. So on one point, that kind of just barely chipping in to Democrats edge with black voters could make a difference. But on the other side, you have Democrats putting in huge efforts across the country to increase turnout among young and nonwhite voters. And that starts with Georgia, you know, with Stacey Abrams' Fair Fight, who's partnered with organizations throughout the country. So I guess part of the question is how much do those efforts boost turnout? And then from there, how much can Donald Trump chip in to Hillary Clinton's margin with black voters? Even if it's just, you know, two or three percent that could make a difference in a key state like Pennsylvania. 

PAUL: [00:13:06] 
So we've referenced Michigan being that second really big surprise state. I'll be honest, it caught me off guard that he carried Michigan. He barely won Michigan four years ago, 10,700 votes over something like, I believe, three million votes cast. Something to that effect. 

LEAH: [00:13:21] 
Yep. I have point two percent, in front of me. Yeah. 

PAUL: [00:13:24] 
Right, By point two percent. Absolutely. So, Michigan, we've again looked at the polls there. The same trend as Pennsylvania. But even more significant, if you pay any credence to these numbers. The averaging and you're looking at five public polls in the month of August for both 2020 and 2016. Hillary Clinton had an average of 8.2 lead this time four years ago in public polling. This time, Biden has only a 5.6 lead. Do you, again, the same thing with Pennsylvania, Do you buy into this notion of what these public polls show? 

LEAH: [00:14:03] 
So, again, the margin is one thing to pay attention to, and it's obviously a big thing to pay attention to. But I also want to look in to, you know, how many polls throughout the summer. Hillary Clinton was above in Michigan or if there were any polls where Donald Trump led. I'd want to look at some of those trends throughout the cycle, especially because 2016 was far less steady then this cycle has been. There were kind of these almost like two-week cycles where Hillary Clinton would kind of crest and then something would happen and Donald Trump might be quiet for two weeks and her standing would fall and Donald Trump's would increase. And it kind of just went in waves throughout the summer and throughout the fall. It would make sense if Michigan and even Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, if these races tightened. It's also being treated by both campaigns like battleground states, whereas Hillary Clinton started looking at North Carolina and Texas and kind of shifted her attention from those blue wall states. Joe Biden is going all in on those. Anything else is kind of frosting at this point. So we're at that point in the cycle where Joe Biden has held a lead in Michigan in polling. It's possible that as Election Day nears, people start putting on their jerseys and maybe that means that things start narrowing so that the folks who voted for Trump in 2016 kind of start coming back home. But I would really want to look at kind of the overall trends throughout the year, I think. 

PAUL: [00:15:36] 
So Wisconsin. Let's talk about that. We do not have polling from 2016, public polling that was released that we can go back because nobody thought that... 

LEAH: [00:15:44] 
Yep, which in and of itself is probably an indicator of the problem of 2016 election handicapping that we can't, that we don't have data to go back on. 

PAUL: [00:15:53] 
And so quick math of an averaging of what we've seen in the month of August. Biden's probably got a five point lead there. Again, even if Biden carries these three states they are historically not being carried the way previous candidates have done so. So it suggests that the upper Midwest, particularly Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Minnesota -- we'll talk about those two other states in a minute-- there seems to be a realignment going on there where Paul Smith's theory is that Donald Trump is playing to rural white voters and he's prepared to cast off states where there is what I like to call multiculturalism. So North Carolina, Arizona to come to mind. He's willing to risk losing North Carolina and Arizona if he can play to the base. And Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, a lot of rural white voters there. Do you think that's really what's going on? 

LEAH: [00:16:53] 
There are also a lot of rural white voters in Arizona and North Carolina. So if he is putting in this base for a strategy that I totally agree that that's what he's doing. I think that if you watched his speech at the RNC, it's hard to imagine that he's really doing anything else at this point, basically recreating 2016, turning out every single Trump voter who turned out in 2016 and maybe turning off a few of those Hillary Clinton voters. Or I think it's more kind of making sure that those so-called forgotten voters show up again. But, looking at the way that the map is playing out. It does seem like we're beginning to see that realignment happen. What's really interesting is in 2018, we kind of saw a glimmer of it with Arizona. First off, Republicans losing the Senate race there. Martha McSally lost, though she was appointed and is now running again. But we also saw in Minnesota that the two of the three House seats that Republicans flipped in 2018, two of them were rural Minnesota seats. So Minnesota in and of itself has kind of become a microcosm of this realignment. North Carolina is an example of the realignment as well. Even though Obama carried it in 2008, the kind of strategy that Joe Biden is using this time is pretty different. It's not those same Obama voters. It's relying more on increased turnout among nonwhite voters and in the suburbs, which was not the Obama coalition. You see realignment throughout the entire map. But if you look in individual states, you can see evidence of that as well. 

PAUL: [00:18:29] 
So what else is at play here? Is there something in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania that transcends this ethnic realignment or this base realignment that's going on? 

LEAH: [00:18:42] 
Well, even with this realignment, it's still unclear who that would benefit in 2020 or, you know, if it kind of goes from one party to the other a few times in the next few years. Maybe, you know, it's close for Republicans in 2016 and then close for Democrats in 2020. And then who knows what happens in 2024. But unlike in midterms like in 2018, it's really hard for any issue other than the presidential race to determine these big statewide races. So, I mean, ballot measures to an extent might have pushed turnout in places like California in 2018, but it's really hard for a sitting president-- an incumbent-- to make the election anything other than a referendum on himself. And we can see pretty clearly that Trump is trying to make it not a referendum of himself or of his presidency or of his administration. But in the end, that is going to be what's on top of voters minds. What the kind of challenge is is for Republicans down ballot, deciding whether the best way forward is to hop on to Trump's strategy and try to get every single one of those Trump 2016 voters to come out again, or whether they're going to start expanding their base into some of the demographics that Trump is not necessarily speaking directly to. And I say that with almost some hesitancy because obviously he is speaking directly to suburban women voters. He has addressed them multiple times in interviews and on Twitter. The question is whether he's really addressing suburban women when he talks to suburban women. How much is he trying to increase turnout or increases his support among urban women and how much is he trying to signal to his base that suburban women are in trouble because of this new changing culture? So it's a little bit unclear just because who he's talking to might not actually be who he's talking to. If that makes any sense. 

PAUL: [00:20:41] 
Right. Right. So let's talk about the Trump-must-hold states, and those are Florida, Ohio and Iowa. We'll start with Iowa first. Notwithstanding 2018 and those flip of House seats in that state, it seems like Iowa has really, really become more red than purple and certainly more red than blue. Do you think the president can easily hold this state? 

LEAH: [00:21:02]
Iowa is a red state, in my opinion. I don't think it's purple. I think it's mostly red. I think it is a red state. That said, I also think it's a battleground. Looking at it is one of those places where Trump has spoken directly to, you know, Iowa voters, to farmers saying, you know, I will be your president, I will speak up for you when previous presidents have not. And when you kind of look at the situation for farmers in Iowa, 2016 versus now, there might be a couple of things that they're excited about, like a new negotiated North American trade agreement. But it's still really, really tough for Iowa farmers right now. And in addition to that, you have growing suburbs in places like Des Moines. And it's just for some you would think that this would be a slam dunk for Republicans and it could still be. But given just how-- let's be honest-- how terrible things are right now, whether or not you want to blame Trump for that. Things are pretty terrible right now. Right, like there's a pandemic, there are protests. It's a pretty rough time for this country and maybe for this world. And I think you're seeing the impacts of that on the political races in places like Iowa, which is making states that should be typically red, making them competitive. 

PAUL: [00:22:22] 
Ohio. That's that old saying is, "No Republican can become president unless they carry Ohio." What's your take on Ohio? 

LEAH: [00:22:31] 
True. That is true. And it wasn't necessarily supposed to be a battleground state. If you were to ask Democrats, I would say a year and a half ago, if they would be putting more resources into Arizona or Ohio, the answer would be Arizona had kind of replaced Ohio I think in kind of traditional conventional wisdom about what swing states really are in 2020. But Ohio is in play. And we're also seeing that down-ballot  congressmen are now vulnerable after Democrats failed to unseat a single one of their Ohio targets in 2018. 2018 should have been a sign that Ohio is not worth Democrats investment. Yes. Sherrod Brown won another term, but it was not the kind of landslide victory that you would have expected from him. And now we're seeing that it's within Democrats' grasp and they are making a real play for it. 

PAUL: [00:23:25] 
When you talked about Ohio reminded me Ohio's only 18 electors. And Arizona is 11. So might be on to something there. If it doesn't look like the Democrats can really bring Ohio home, they may want to divert those resources to Arizona. Lastly, let's leave the Midwest. We've spent a lot of time in the Midwest with those Midwestern states and we still have one to talk about, and that's Florida. I'm old enough to remember and I don't know if you are, Leah, 2000? Hanging chads, Supreme Court decisions, etc., etc. what's going to happen in the Sunshine State? 

LEAH: [00:23:58] 
What's going to happen in Florida in 2020 amid a pandemic? That is a question that I don't know. Florida is definitely a battleground, but it's just such a complex state when it comes down to demographics and issues. Its Hispanic voters are going to be voting on a different issue set then possibly Hispanic voters in Arizona, you see growing suburbs around Miami especially, but you also see communities in the panhandle moving closer and closer toward Republicans, toward Trump. We saw in 2018 that Democrats had some success there, but also at the same time, Rick Scott won the Senate race. So it's really a mystery. I think that Democrats probably best plan would be trying to figure out how to win if Florida goes to Republicans, is trying to figure out a game plan that allows Florida to go to Republicans. I just think that it's going to be an incredibly narrow margin there. As someone once told me in 2018, it might depend on whether it rains in Miami, what the outcome of these races are going to look like and how people get to their polling booths. I guess that might not be the case with so much mail-in voting this time, but it's going to come down to the wire as my best guess. 

PAUL: [00:25:15] 
Yeah. Florida's 29 electoral votes. There's only two states that have more electoral votes: Texas and California, and to a certain degree, they offset each other. So, big, big prize there. The president carried it a little over 100,000 votes in 2016. 49 to 47.8. Does the president relocating here-- he now calls Florida his home, You mentioned that 2018 was actually really good for Republicans, and Florida is one of the only areas of the country where Republicans made some gains-- has it gotten better for Republicans in two and four years? Are we back to where we've always been with Florida? 

LEAH: [00:25:51] 
And that's a good question, because while Florida was one of the few bright points for the Senate Republicans in 2018, it wasn't on the House side. Democrats did make inroads there in congressional races a little farther down ballot. So the question is, how much was it if Rick Scott personally? How much was the fact that he had previously been governor? How much about his previous reputation? How much came down to his personal spending in that 2018 race, which was immense? And, how much of the just plain demographics are going to play a role here? I mean, 2018 trying to figure out Florida is a really tough- It's just a tough challenge, I think probably tougher than any other battleground state just because of the different demographics and different cities and unique issue sets that voters value there. I think it's clear, though, that Donald Trump needs to win Florida to win reelection. And I don't believe in coincidences in politics and him relocating permanently to Florida should be a sign that he understands that reality as well. 

PAUL: [00:26:57] 
We talked about these two states, and these are the red to blue flip states, meaning these are states that voted for Trump in 2016, but they are very, very much in play-- Arizona and North Carolina. Let's start with North Carolina. As you mentioned, this was a surprise for Mr. Obama in 2008. He won it actually quite handedly, considering how North Carolina has behaved for the last 40 or 50 years. And then Mitt Romney easily took it back in 2012. President carried it quite easily in 2016, but now it seems like it's up for grabs. For those they're not familiar with the state of North Carolina, you have two emerging metropolitan areas that are leading it to turn blue or at least turn purple. And, of course, Mecklenburg County, home of Charlotte, a lot of banking, a lot of finance, very cosmopolitan city, multiculturalism going on there, as is the Research Triangle of Raleigh, Durham, a lot of universities, a lot of Asian voters, South Asian, Far East Asian voters that have settled there. So North Carolina is a rapidly changing demographic state. And do you believe that is what's going to make the difference for Biden to carry this state? 

LEAH: [00:28:04] 
North Carolina, I feel like, is the toss up state of 2020. I mean, almost every other state, you can almost assign a bit of a tinge toward blue or red. North Carolina, to me, it could just go either way. The tricky part is that there's not really a blueprint for Biden's path to victory specifically. So 2008, yes, Obama won the state. But Joe Biden is not going to win North Carolina with the same voters that Barack Obama won North Carolina with. 

PAUL: [00:28:33] 
Are you alluding to a really strong African-American turnout in North Carolina that carried it for him where that's not necessarily the game plan in 2020? 

LEAH: [00:28:43] 
Right. And suburbs in Mecklenburg County, those kind of white rural voters, especially in kind of the east of the state, those were some of the Obama voters that flipped for him. They're not going to vote for Joe Biden in 2020. Not with the realignment that we've seen. So what we've seen is like in 2018, if you counted up the raw number of votes for House races, you took every Democratic vote for the U.S. House and every Republican vote for the U.S. House, Democrats came within about two points of Republicans, which is interesting because they did not make a dent into their congressional representation, though, then the maps were redrawn, so it's a bit of a saga there. So on one hand, you can see that there might be a path from 2018 just looking at the wrong number of Democratic votes. But it's still just slightly below at the same number of Republican votes. So it's hard to know whether or not that two percent is going to be made up for with greater turnout in a presidential year among nonwhite voters and young voters, or whether it's still going to be that two point separation between Republicans and Democrats. I would assume that it's going to be very close. And I think that the senator running for reelection there, Thom Tillis, is probably not helping a lot right now. He is in trouble there. 

PAUL: [00:30:00] 
The president carried this 49.8 to 46.2 so relatively easy. Although if you look back prior to the last couple elections, this has always been a solid red state. It's definitely changing. Fifteen electoral votes, so no small prize if he can win it. Arizona. Very fascinating. A lot of things going on in that state. Why do you think this is such an important state and why do you think Democrats would actually entertain, maybe walking away from Ohio and putting money here in Arizona? 

PAUL: [00:30:30] 
So Arizona, there's evidence that Democrats can win here in 2020. And that's because of the Senate race in 2018. There's a path to victory that's been laid out for them. And they think that a candidate like Joe Biden is really well positioned to take advantage of the current environment. Democrats won that Senate race in 2018 largely because of their candidate, Kirsten Cinema. Joe Biden has, in a lot of Democrats opinions, a stylistically similar to Cinema-- kind of exudes that moderate approach-- snd so, could be the kind of candidate that suburban voters might gravitate toward, which would be, I think, the key to Joe Biden winning there. At the same time, and again, I'm going to bring up a Senate race, but it's because Martha McSally has been running a race that's really based on Trump's strategy, which is, you know, the base first and now we're beginning to see her actually kind of move from that and start trending toward, you know, maybe positions that don't specifically mention Trump or messaging that doesn't specifically mention Trump. But we're beginning to see that that original Republican strategy of let's turn out every single one of our voters in Arizona, like we did in 2016, might not be enough for them in 2020 with a candidate like Joe Biden on the presidential ticket. And then also with a candidate like Mark Kelly on the Senate ticket. 

PAUL: [00:31:55] 
Let's move to the opportunities the president might have in his, quote, unquote, realignment that we've talked about and those blue to red opportunities are Minnesota and New Hampshire. We'll talk about New Hampshire first. First of all, very small state, only four electors up for grabs there. Probably the only island of purple in the entire northeast. The president kicked off his campaign, was it a week or so ago, in Londonderry, New Hampshire, a suburb of Manchester. He went there. He lost the state by a mere 2700 votes. 46.8 to 46.5 . Why would he go to New Hampshire? 

LEAH: [00:32:31] 
Those four votes are unlikely to make a huge difference in the Electoral College. If Donald Trump is winning New Hampshire, then I'd imagine he's also probably won Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which are significantly more important in the Electoral College. I mean, New Hampshire is going to get overlooked by, I think, a lot of political operatives in 2020 just because the kind of meat of the battleground is in Arizona and Michigan, Wisconsin, the blue wall, and North Carolina, and even Georgia and South Carolina. The idea of kind of going on offense in New Hampshire rather than playing defense in Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania seems like a bit of a risky strategy, especially for only four Electoral College votes. Why did Trump go there? I'd imagine that there's something to be said for kind of building momentum if he can show that he's making inroads in New Hampshire. But again, for all I know, it's a photo op. I'm just not sure why, given the amount of resources, the amount of time that the president has between now and November. That's a, that's a head scratcher. 

PAUL: [00:33:42] 
So that brings us to Minnesota. Ten electoral votes here. Ms. Clinton won at 46.4 to 44.9  so  about a 2.5 margin victory. This is that one where no one thought it would be that close in 2016. Obviously, the issues involving the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, the subsequent riots here. Is this in play? 

LEAH: [00:34:05] 
Yeah. Minnesota is actually really tricky because demographically it looks like a state that should be within Trump's grasp. But there are a lot of white voters in Minnesota. There are also a lot of college educated white voters who are going to remain with Biden. On one hand, it seems like, especially after 2018, that there's opportunities for Trump to cement realignment that we're seeing nationally, specifically in Minnesota, and get the white working-class and rural vote entirely on his side. But Minnesota does not really seem to be there yet. When we're looking at polling, I haven't seen a lot of evidence that Trump has made a major improvement there since 2016. It is in Joe Biden's plans for advertising in 2020. So it's definitely not a state to ignore it, just in case as we get closer to Election Day we do see things tighten up. It's just one that I'm keeping an eye on that, right now, seems to be within Democrats' wheelhouse pretty strongly. I would just keep an eye on it all the way to Election Day. 

PAUL: [00:35:12] 
So my theory on Minnesota, last word we'll move on to the final states, is if I'm Donald Trump, I'm thinking I'm going to go get Minnesota and I don't care about Arizona because it's 10 Electoral College votes respectively. 

LEAH: [00:35:24] 
So, looking at Arizona specifically, it's just a more Republican state than Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan. That could change. But if you're looking at just trying to focus on the states that are gettable at this point, Arizona is just an easier state for Republicans than Minnesota, just looking at the 2016 results. I mean, Trump won Arizona by 90 thousand votes like three and a half percent, which is relatively narrow, but not as narrow as Clinton's margin in Minnesota or Trump's margin in Michigan or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. It should be a Republican state based on 2016 results. So, I mean, I guess as part of the calculation that we have to make, but also that political operatives have to make, is looking at if no Republican has won statewide in Minnesota since 1972. If you're a political operative, you might think like, all right. Well, this is obviously a better state for Democrats if you're looking at trend lines than Arizona is moving more in your direction. But is it more Democratic today than Minnesota is today, even if it's going to be more Democratic in 10 years? Is it more Democratic on November 3rd? And that's a question that we don't know, but looking at the chances of Minnesota flipping after 50 years, you might take that bet. 

PAUL: [00:36:40] 
So there are three keep-your-eye-on states that I've kind of analyzed. One is really not a state. It's a congressional district. And we'll start with that. And that's Maine's Congressional District 2. Maine, has two congressional seats, obviously has four electors total coming from there. The southern part of Maine is pretty solidly Democratic, but northern Maine and congressional district two is as purple as they come. Does it matter if the president gets congressional district two in Maine? 

LEAH: [00:37:06] 
It could, and it could matter if he gets Nebraska's 2nd District, which also has a single Electoral College vote. There is a scenario, and I have it on a list someplace on 270 To Win or whatever, that shows a scenario that is plausible in which those two Electoral College votes could make a difference. It is possible, if things are close, that those two districts make a difference. So, I mean, they should not be necessarily counted out. They're also just a lot of other dynamics happening in those states right now with Senate and House races that could make things a little bit more complicated, especially with Susan Collins running for reelection. I think some of the question is whether voters split their tickets for Collins and Biden in Maine's 2nd District. Maine's 2nd District had been a pretty reliably Democratic Electoral College vote up until Trump. So the question is whether 2016 was a preview of what the new kind of reality is in Maine's 2nd District, which is primarily rural, primarily white, or if it was kind of an aberration, you know, is it going to go back to Democrats for a few more cycles before it goes back toward Republicans? I mean, realignment should say that that second district should eventually go in Republicans' column. The question is whether in 2016 it was kind of a one time thing for now or whether it's just the beginning of the new normal. 

PAUL: [00:38:26] 
Indiana. I assume that if the president is not going to win Indiana, he has probably lost everything else in the upper Midwest. Does Indiana matter? 

LEAH: [00:38:35] 
I have not seen a lot of activity in Indiana on the presidential ballot. I don't think it would make a major difference in the Electoral College. If Joe Biden is winning Indiana, he's probably already locked down Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, possibly Maine's 2nd District as well. So I haven't seen it be part of the major presidential plans at all this cycle. I guess there's still time for that to change. But honestly, I think that if anyone expands the map rather than going into Indiana, I would imagine would go into someplace like Georgia or South Carolina. 

PAUL: [00:39:05] 
So speaking of Georgia, you'd think that this is a state to keep your eye on, maybe tells us why. 

LEAH: [00:39:09] 
Georgia's polling has shown consistently really close races on the presidential level and even to an extent on the Senate level. There's a lot of money going into Georgia right now. First off with Stacey Abrams organization. But second, there are two Senate races happening simultaneously and a handful of House races that are also being targeted, including one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities in the country is in Georgia's 7th District. So when you're looking at the overall numbers in polling for these individual districts and also statewide, it's looking like Republicans are going to have to play here. That doesn't mean that they are necessarily at risk of losing. But if they don't do anything, Democrats could get their claws into this one. 

PAUL: [00:39:55] 
Do you see any scenario that Georgia gets attention similar to the conversation we've been having about North Carolina, Arizona, where the president realigns and carries that upper Midwest, but because Atlanta's very, very large African-American presence there carries the weight for Democrats in that state and those white suburbs of Atlanta are trending definitely away from the president. Do you see this as the way of North Carolina where the president can go ahead and have all those upper Midwest? But if Biden can make inroads in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, that's where he makes it up. It seems like it's an awfully long road to carry a state that has voted red reliably since Jimmy Carter.

LEAH: [00:40:35] 
Right. I mean, if Joe Biden is winning Georgia in 2020, if Democrats are winning Georgia in 2020, my guess is that they're also winning those northeastern states, those blue wall states, because that realignment has not solidified enough for there to be two completely different coalitions-  one Rustbelt and one Sunbelt. That's not where the country is right now. There could be a day, I think there's likely to be a day in which, you know, Wisconsin and Michigan are closer to the Republican coalition and Georgia and possibly South Carolina are closer to the Democrats. But right now, there's just not enough of a separation demographically for that to be completely realistic. Joe Biden is going to need some crossover voters in Michigan and Wisconsin who eventually will go to the Republican Party. He needs some of those old school Democrats before they most likely, just looking at trends, do move to the Republican Party. 

PAUL: [00:41:32] 
Last point on the presidency and the Electoral College conversation. Nobody thinks that Donald Trump is going to win the popular vote. 

LEAH: [00:41:40] 
So, I mean, after 2016, I think number one is painting out scenarios. And so this scenario in which Donald Trump loses the popular vote is probably something that has to do with vote by mail or some kind of voting issue that happens because of the pandemic. So it's not impossible. But if you're betting, you should bet that Joe Biden is going to win the popular vote. 

PAUL: [00:42:03] 
Let's assume that you're right and that Biden carries in the popular vote. That'll be the third election whereby a Republican president gets elected in the Electoral College but does not carry the popular vote. Do you think this is probably going to be the election that if Donald Trump wins narrowly in the Electoral College but loses in the popular vote, that we really, really start to revisit the entire electoral system in this country? 

LEAH: [00:42:28] 
You know, I don't know. And part of what complicates that question is that this is also a census year, which means next year is a redistricting year. So, I mean, let's say Donald Trump wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote, but Democrats manage to make major inroads in state governments throughout the country. What is that congressional or House majority look like? What does a divided government look like? It's a really tough question and one that I think would probably need a bit more policy analysis rather than electoral analysis. But I imagine there would be outrage from Democratic voters. But the process to change that would require not just a Democratic Senate and House, but probably some crossover support from Republicans. And that just seems like a far fetched kind of idea at this point. 

PAUL: [00:43:17] 
This has been fascinating and fun. So, Leah, thank you for your time today. 

LEAH: [00:43:21] 
Thanks for having me. Looking forward to discussing down ballot races. They're overlooked and fun. 

PAUL: [00:43:28] 
Yes. This is just the start of our conversation about the November election. In our next episode, we'll be talking about the U.S. Senate. And for those that are signposting, the Hometown California podcast, we'll be talking to Leah later in the election cycle. And after the election, we will continue the conversation about the Electoral College and the popular vote. It should be interesting to watch as the next couple of months unfold. 

OUTRO: [00:44:10] 
You've been listening to Hometown California, a production of the rural county representatives of California. Subscribe now so you don't miss an episode. Be sure to rate and review this podcast. I'm your host, Paul Smith. And thanks for listening.