Climate Special 3: Tipping Points

As we continue our series on China-US climate cooperation, we issue something of a warning, pointing out that we should see ourselves not as the victims of some future climate catastrophe, but rather we should admit that unbridled exploitation of the planet’s resources has made us the harbingers of change.

Transcript

Tipping Points

As we continue our series on China-US climate cooperation, we issue something of a warning, pointing out that we should see ourselves not as the victims of some future climate catastrophe, but rather we should admit that unbridled exploitation of the planet’s resources has made us the harbingers of change.

While the international community has mobilized to act, the pace of global warming appears to have sped up at the same time, with the consequences of a warming climate felt across the planet. The severity and frequency of weather and climate extremes, like heat waves, heavy rainstorms, hurricanes, typhoons, droughts and wildfires, have noticeably intensified.

According to data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the European Union’s climate change monitor, 2024 was the hottest year since temperature records started 176 years ago. The year not only saw the hottest summer but also the four hottest days in a row on record.

On January 10, 2025, the WMO confirmed that 2024 was the “first calendar year with a global mean temperature of more than 1.5℃ above the 1850-1900 average,” and that the years 2015-2024 were the warmest 10 years on record.

The Paris Agreement saw world leaders pledge to try to limit the temperature rise to 1.5℃ by the end of the century, based on a widely accepted scientific consensus that going beyond 1.5℃ could tip the balance of the world’s climate system, triggering irreversible and catastrophic damages to both ecosystems and human societies.

In its 2018 special report “Global Warming of 1.5℃,” the IPCC offered a detailed explanation of the consequences of exceeding 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). The report identified more than a dozen planetary tipping points, including the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, coral reefs, the Amazon River basin, and permafrost. It warned that surpassing these thresholds would not only push ecosystems into a new state, but also trigger cascading social and economic consequences, such as food insecurity and population displacement.

Under 1.5℃ of warming, 4 percent of vertebrates, 6 percent of insects, and 8 percent of plant species would be lost forever. Under 2°C of warming, biodiversity losses would at least double to reach 8 percent, 18 percent, and 16 percent, respectively. More than one-third (37 percent) of the global population would be exposed to severe heat waves at least once in five years under 2°C of warming, which is more than double the figure projected by experts if global warming is constrained to 1.5℃ (14 percent). If global temperatures rise by 2°C, global crop yields will decline by 7 percent and marine fisheries will decline by 3 million tons, compared to 3 percent and 1.5 million tons under 1.5℃. 

A report released in February 2024 by the Center for Global Development, a US-based think tank, estimates that global crop yield could already see a reduction of 2.9 percent to 5 percent by 2030, and by 6.8 percent to 18 percent after 2050, with Africa hit the hardest. It warned that more than 30 percent of crop revenues could be lost due to climate change in developing countries, which would push a significant number of people into poverty.

As most people in the developing world depend on agriculture, this puts millions at risk of starvation. The United in Science 2023 – Sustainable Development Edition report released by the WMO estimated that 670 million people may face hunger in 2030, in part due to more extreme weather events. Climate change also threatens the fulfillment of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set in 2015 to address global challenges. 

According to a report released in February 2024 by the Asia-Pacific SDG Partnership, a collaborative initiative bringing together various UN agencies and the Asian Development Bank, 90 percent of the 116 measurable targets under the 17 Sustainable Development Goals set for 2030 will be missed if current climate change trends persist.

The report, titled People and Planet: Addressing the Interlinked Challenges of Climate Change, Poverty, and Hunger in Asia and the Pacific, warns that more frequent and severe climate-related hazards will result in reduced agricultural and labor productivity, loss of livelihoods and human displacement, which will strain socioeconomic and environmental systems in many countries.

According to a more recent study released in June 2024 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a US-based non-profit organization, each 1℃ increase in global temperature can be linked to a 12 percent decline in global GDP, six times larger than previous estimates. The report predicts a 3℃ temperature rise by the end of this century if current trends continue, which will cause “precipitous declines” in output, capital and consumption exceeding 50 percent by 2100.

Missing the Target?

As 2024 marks the first year of temperatures more than 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels, scientists are warning that human society is on course to miss the 1.5℃ target. While a year-long breach does not mean the long-term target has been missed, it does mean the limit is getting perilously close.

As the world continues to heat, scientists have released numerous studies and reports screaming that the world is on the brink of various tipping points related to climate change, if it has not already crossed the critical juncture. There are signs of impending climate disaster worldwide. According to the WMO’s State of Global Water Resources report released in October 2024, there have been lower-than-average river and reservoir levels across the globe over the past five years, with more than 50 percent of global river catchment areas showing abnormal conditions in 2023.

The UN Environment Program warned in a report also released in October 2024 that based on the current course of action, the 1.5℃ goal will be missed within a few years, and the world will see a catastrophic 3.1℃ of warming by the end of this century. Even if all existing climate pledges are fully implemented, it would still lead to a devastating 2.6℃ temperature rise.

“It is still technically possible to meet the 1.5℃ goal, but only with a G20-led massive global mobilization to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, starting today,” the report said. To achieve this, nations must collectively cut 42 percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 percent by 2035, according to the report.

The UN Environment Program report highlights the important role of renewable energy, stressing that increased deployment of solar and wind energy technologies could deliver 27 percent of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38 percent in 2035.

In his keynote speech on June 5, 2024 UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, “In the case of climate, we are not the dinosaurs. We are the meteor. We are not only in danger. We are the danger. But we are also the solution.” Guterres said, “climate action cannot be captive to geopolitical divisions,” stating that nations’ collective actions on climate can also bring economic prosperity and sustainable development. He added, “The truth is, we have control of the wheel.”

Well, that’s the end of our podcast on China-US Climate Cooperation. Our theme music is by the famous film score composer Roc Chen. We want to thank our writer Yu Xiaodong, translator Du Guodong, and copy editor Pu Ren. And thank you for listening. I hope you enjoyed it, and if you did, please tell a friend so they, too, can understand The Context.