Climate Speical 6: Positive Breakthroughs

Today, we continue our series on China-US Climate Cooperation with the second of a two-part episode on the history of climate deals between China and the US. And we’ll lead off with some positive breakthroughs that occurred over the past dozen years. 

Transcript

Positive Breakthroughs

Today, we continue our series on China-US Climate Cooperation with the second of a two-part episode on the history of climate deals between China and the US. And we’ll lead off with some positive breakthroughs that occurred over the past dozen years. 

The real breakthrough in China-US climate cooperation came after Xi Jinping assumed China’s leadership. Taking office as general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee in November 2012 and as Chinese president in March 2013, Xi declared that “clear waters and green mountains are invaluable assets,” a principle that became fundamental to China’s ecological development. By raising the concept of “ecological civilization,” Xi launched reforms to promote a wide-ranging green transformation in China’s socioeconomic development, marking a shift toward a more proactive approach to addressing climate change in both domestic policies and international negotiations.

In April 2013, China and the US created a Climate Change Working Group under the bilateral Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED). This initiative targeted five key areas: reducing vehicle emissions, advancing carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), improving energy efficiency, managing greenhouse gas data and developing smart grids. Unlike previous mechanisms, this working group was tasked with delivering concrete near-term progress and was required to report developments to both US and Chinese leaders during annual S&ED meetings.

In June 2013, Xi met with Obama at the Sunnylands Estate in California, where they announced a new agreement to drive international progress on hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases that accelerate global warming. This commitment was followed by the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on climate change between China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the California government, activating cooperation between China and the US state.

The momentum continued in November 2014, when the two presidents issued a historic joint climate statement during the APEC Forum in Beijing. The statement underscored their commitment to a new international climate agreement, emphasizing “the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances.” The announcement was hailed as a turning point, transcending the developing-vs-developed country divide and effectively kickstarting the 2015 negotiation process. While the US pledged a 26-28 percent reduction in emissions by 2025 (from 2005 levels), China committed to peaking emissions around 2030.

In September 2015, the two leaders issued a second joint announcement on climate change, reaffirming their commitments to emission reductions. China pledged to establish a national cap-and-trade system and increase climate finance, while the US emphasized domestic policy actions. This collaboration set the stage for the Paris Agreement by showcasing joint leadership and fostering global momentum for ambitious climate action.

During COP21 in Paris in December 2015, the US and China worked together to bridge divides between developed and developing countries, playing a critical role in crafting the historic global climate change agreement. The Paris Agreement introduced a framework of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), allowing countries to set their own climate targets. This flexible approach encouraged broader participation and ultimately led to the agreement’s success.

On September 3, 2016, the day before the G20 Summit in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, the two countries released another landmark joint statement, announcing their ratification of the Paris Agreement and reaffirming their commitment to long-term climate goals. This solidified the China-US partnership as a cornerstone of global climate governance.

‘New Anchor’

The rapid rise of China-US energy and climate cooperation during this period – widely regarded as a golden era for bilateral climate collaboration – occurred against a backdrop of growing mistrust between the two nations. After China surpassed Japan to become the  world’s second-largest economy in 2010, the US increasingly viewed China as a rising threat to its global dominance, leading to diminishing strategic trust.

Economic and trade relations, long considered the ballast of the bilateral relationship, were strained as the US grew frustrated with its trade deficit with China. The Obama administration’s push for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade deal was widely perceived as an effort to exclude China.

Additionally, the US’s Pivot to Asia strategy, aimed at strengthening its influence in the region, was seen by many as an attempt to contain China’s rise. Meanwhile, China’s more assertive territorial claims in the East and South China Seas prompted increased US freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs), resulting in frequent military standoffs.

With trust eroding in economic, political and security domains, many hoped that enhanced cooperation on energy and climate change could serve as a new anchor for the bilateral relationship. However, the golden period of US-China climate cooperation proved short-lived.

In June 2017, President Donald Trump announced the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, dealing a significant blow to both bilateral climate cooperation and multilateral climate diplomacy. Simultaneously, the US launched a trade war against China, raising tariffs on Chinese imports and further deteriorating the bilateral relationship.

While the Trump administration abandoned its role as a global leader in fighting climate change, China doubled down on its support for the Paris Agreement, positioning itself as a responsible global player. In September 2020, President Xi announced China’s “dual carbon” goals: peaking emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060.

At the Climate Ambition Summit in December 2020, Xi outlined enhanced 2030 NDCs,  including cutting carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by more than 65 percent from 2005 levels and increasing the share of non-fossil energy consumption to 25 percent.

Meanwhile, China ramped up collaboration with other nations on green energy projects, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and increased investment in renewable energy technologies. By advancing manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles, China established itself as a global market leader in these fields.

Cooperation vs Competition

When Joe Biden assumed the US presidency in January 2021, he swiftly announced plans to rejoin the Paris Agreement and set a new national target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

In April 2021, China’s Special Envoy for Climate Change Xie Zhenhua and his US counterpart John Kerry – veteran figures in bilateral climate diplomacy – issued a joint statement in Shanghai, reaffirming commitments to tackling the climate crisis cooperatively.

During COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021, China and the US announced a new climate working group and issued the Joint Glasgow Declaration. The agreement highlighted collaborative efforts on phasing down coal consumption, reducing methane emissions and protecting forests. 

Despite the resumption of high-level climate cooperation, the political foundations for bilateral collaboration were significantly weaker under Biden’s administration compared to Obama’s. Under Trump’s first presidency, the US officially identified China as a “strategic competitor” in 2017, marking a shift from cooperative economic engagement to outright rivalry. The Biden administration continued Trump-era policies, including the trade war with China, while introducing new export controls to restrict China’s access to advanced US technologies. The US also bolstered its alliance against China and simultaneously increased its military presence in Asia.

Tensions escalated in August 2022 when US house speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province. China, perceiving this as a major provocation, suspended several high-level dialogue mechanisms, including climate talks.

Bilateral climate discussions resumed only after Xi and Biden met on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia in November 2022. Climate talks were further revitalized when Kerry visited Beijing in July 2023.

In November 2023, the two countries issued the Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis, reestablishing the China-US Climate Change Working Group. They committed to including all greenhouse gases and sectors in future NDCs and detailed plans for post-peak power sector reductions.

However, the bilateral relationship remains precarious. A bipartisan consensus in the US political elite on taking a tougher stance against China has created a fragile foundation for cooperation.

Climate change has become the sole area of alignment, but even here, competitive dynamics increasingly overshadow the spirit of collaboration. 

As China solidified its position as a global leader in renewable energy technologies, the Biden administration imposed steep tariffs in September 2024: 100 percent on electric vehicles, 25 percent on lithium-ion EV batteries and 50 percent on photovoltaic solar cells from China. These measures have dimmed prospects for sustained climate cooperation.

Future Prospects

With Donald Trump’s reelection as US president, the outlook for official China-US climate cooperation has grown increasingly bleak. A long-time climate skeptic, Trump again withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement on his first day in office on January 20, 2025, with likely official withdrawal within the year, and he could also exit the broader UNFCCC framework.

His administration’s “Make America Great Again” agenda is rolling back climate policies and seeks to reprioritize coal and oil production, which will significantly hinder global climate efforts.

Recognizing big progress on green transition in the two countries and joint efforts on global climate governance, all our interviewees in this special edition, including officials, experts and industrial insiders, expressed their hope for and confidence in increasing cooperation at the subnational level and among non-state actors in both nations.

There is growing awareness that a new approach to China-US cooperation and coordination is urgently needed in the new reality. In her article on chinausfocus.com on December 31, 2024, Taylah Bland, Senior Program Officer for the China Climate Hub, Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank in Washington, DC, suggests that “climate adaptation and resilience could form a new frontier of China-US climate engagement,” which can be realized through cooperative local projects in the two countries and “driven by a competitive model” by “competing to assist vulnerable nations” with their “respective strength.”

“No matter how the international landscape may evolve, China’s determination and action for a proactive climate response will not change,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on January 23, 2025 in response to the US’s announcement that it was again withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, adding that China “will continue working with all parties to build a fair and equitable global climate governance system for win-win cooperation and advance global green and low-carbon transition and sustainable development.”

Well, that’s the end of this week’s podcast on China-US Climate Cooperation. Our theme music is by the famous film score composer Roc Chen. We want to thank our writer Yu Xiaodong, translator Du Guodong, and copy editor Pu Ren. And thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed it, and if you did, please tell a friend, so they too can understand The Context.