Climate Special 10: Partners in Action (II)

Today, we continue our series on China-US Climate Cooperation and discuss how the US’s second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will affect the momentum of intergovernmental cooperation between China and the US, but we’ll also learn how the two countries still have potential to continue their partnership on climate issues.

Transcript

Partners in Action (II)

Today, we continue our series on China-US Climate Cooperation and discuss how the US’s second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will affect the momentum of intergovernmental cooperation between China and the US, but we’ll also learn how the two countries still have potential to continue their partnership on climate issues.

Last week, we presented the first half of NewsChina’s interview with Liu Zhenmin, China’s Special Envoy for Climate Change. And now, we’ll continue with the second half.

NC asked: Will the US’s second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement lead to stagnation or even regression in global efforts to combat climate change?

Liu Zhenmin said: Unfortunately, US President Donald Trump ordered the US to withdraw from the Paris Agreement a second time, just as the agreement marked its 10th anniversary. This withdrawal will have a greater negative impact on the world than on the US itself.

First, the withdrawal further undermines the credibility of the Paris Agreement, casting significant doubt on the implementation of its goals.

Second, it has undermined the collective leadership of developed countries in global climate governance. Developed countries seemed to lack a leader after the US, which was regarded as the leader among developed countries since the end of WWII, quit from the Paris Agreement.

This was evident at COP29, held in November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where developed countries faced noticeable difficulties in reaching consensus. Although they eventually agreed on climate financing for developing countries, the situation differed starkly from the 2009 Copenhagen Summit.

In Copenhagen, then US President Obama coordinated the positions of all developed countries. In contrast, at Baku, developed countries failed to do so. In addition, developed countries were concerned about who would fill the void left by the US.

Based on agreements such as the 1992 UNFCCC, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement, developed countries have committed to providing financial and technological support to developing nations in addressing climate change. According to the Copenhagen commitment, developed countries pledged to provide and mobilize US$100 billion per year to developing countries, with the US expected to contribute more than 10 percent. Now, no developed nation appears willing to fill the gap left by the US.

The effective implementation of the Paris Agreement and the UAE Consensus depends on three factors: technological cooperation, financial assistance and a stable international economic and trade system.  

According to a 2023 report by international consultancy Wood Mackenzie, if developed countries continue to “decouple” from China’s new energy technologies, global energy transition costs could rise by an additional US$6 trillion, a 20 percent increase for global green transition. This is the consequence of the restrictive economic and trade policies taken by the US and Europe. The US’s withdrawal will further shock the international trade system, significantly hindering the global energy transition process. 

But we should also keep in mind that the US’s withdrawal won’t reverse or halt humanity’s efforts in addressing climate change.

First, addressing climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to non-fossil energy sources is an irreversible global trend. This is driven both by the urgency of tackling the climate crisis and by technological advancements. The Paris Agreement was reached during the fourth industrial revolution, which focuses on renewable energy, reinforcing the international community’s confidence in replacing fossil fuels with non-fossil ones.

China has grown to be a global leader in wind energy, photovoltaics and new energy vehicles. Many Chinese enterprises, particularly private firms, have invested heavily in developing new energy since the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in 2009, especially since the 18th CPC National Congress in 2012. These efforts consolidated China’s commitment to the Paris Agreement, and carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.

Meanwhile, OECD countries are all developing new energy solutions. Some are moving fast, some slow, but they are all committed to doing it.

Third, the imminent threats of climate change have pushed more countries to act. From 1990 to 2023, the certainty of human influence on global warming in IPCC reports increased from 66 percent to “unequivocal”. From extreme weather events such as droughts, rainstorms and floods to changes in the Arctic, Antarctic, and ocean acidification and temperatures, scientists have found more convincing evidence that climate change is a real thing.

With proactive global efforts in addressing climate change, the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is likely temporary. I believe the US will eventually come back.

Besides, this challenge may even encourage closer and more effective international cooperation if all parties are serious in solving the problems caused by the US’s withdrawal.

And as a last question, NC asked: How will the US’s retreat from climate commitments affect bilateral relations between China and the US?

LZ: Compared to the previous US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the reaction within American society this time is much more intense. There is a stronger and broader recognition of the urgency to tackle climate change among American stakeholders, including politicians, think tanks and scientists. Even the energy sector has started to transform.

Before COP29 in Baku, the US’s presidential election had already ended. There was widespread anticipation that the US would likely withdraw from the Paris Agreement again under the Trump administration. But voices advocating for sustained cooperation on climate issues between the US and China have been strong in the US. It is widely recognized in the US that such cooperation goes beyond bilateral relations, offering an opportunity for the US to reinforce its global image as a country committed to ecological protection and addressing the climate crisis.

Our cooperation with California has been going well. Many US states have made good progress in their energy transitions and continue working to improve energy efficiency. The circular economy is booming in some states.

The bottom-up NDCs model enshrined in the Paris Agreement fits well into the US’s political and legal systems. Besides, addressing climate change through energy transition is beneficial to the US. Other countries expect US companies to participate in global energy transition efforts. This means American companies can benefit from supporting the global climate action. The US is both a major contributor to and victim of climate change. Moreover, it should shoulder its responsibilities as a major country in global climate action.

The momentum of intergovernmental cooperation between China and the US will definitely be affected by the US’s withdrawal, but the two countries still have potential to continue their partnership on climate issues. Cooperation could continue in academia, local governments and non-governmental organizations, especially on energy issues and circular economy. Cooperation between the world’s two largest economies and biggest carbon emitters can provide good examples of climate response to the rest of the world, and lead global climate action. Climate change is a global issue that goes beyond the China-US bilateral relationship, and China-US relations have far-reaching global significance in international relations.

It is important to recognize that there is no fundamental divergence between China and the US on climate issues. On the contrary, the possibilities for cooperation between the two on climate issues are extensive. Therefore, when it comes to addressing climate change, the US is expected to adopt a broader vision and stronger sense of global responsibility. China is always open to cooperating with the US on climate change. We are expecting more pragmatic and mutually beneficial exchanges across all sectors of American society.

Looking ahead, we remain fully confident. We hope the Trump administration will gradually realize that China and the US can work together in addressing climate change and our cooperation will give a strong boost to global climate action. I believe that countries in the world are eager to see sustained climate cooperation between China and the US.

When it comes to climate issues, China and the US share common interests, rather than divided by any conflict of interest. The two nations should continue working together to provide joint leadership in global efforts to tackle the challenge of climate change.

Well, that’s the end of this week’s podcast on China-US Climate Cooperation. Our theme music is by the famous film score composer Roc Chen. We want to thank our writers Wu Jin and Li Jia, translator Du Guodong and copy editor Pu Ren. And thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed it, and if you did, please tell a friend, so they too can understand The Context!