EMS@C-LEVEL

EMS & The Economist - Tariffs Special - April 13th, 2025

Philip Spagnoli Stoten

With tariffs monopolizing an extraordinarily rapid news cycle, I ask IPC Chief Economist and regular guest, Shawn DuBravac, to appear in this impromptu episode of EMS & The Economist late last evening (around 10:30pm in Washington DC).

Tariffs are changing by the hour, not just by the day. What began as reciprocal measures against specific countries has morphed into a sectorial approach targeting entire industries regardless of manufacturing location.

The market response has been predictably volatile, with tech stocks swinging wildly as announcements and clarifications emerge in rapid succession. Business leaders across the electronics landscape find themselves paralyzed by uncertainty, delaying investment decisions while trying to navigate the shifting policy landscape. This hesitation alone increases recession probability, with many experts, including our guest IPC Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac, now seeing an economic downturn beginning in Q3 2025 as likely.

Most revealing is the likely motivation behind these tariffs - not merely to punish foreign manufacturers or rebalance trade relationships, but to drive domestic electronics production within the United States. Yet even American-made electronics rely heavily on imported components, creating a complex challenge that tariffs alone cannot easily solve. As companies worldwide reconsider their market priorities, there's growing concern that global supply chains might realign in ways that reduce American centrality in the electronics ecosystem. 

The electronics industry stands at a pivotal moment. How manufacturers, policymakers, and investors respond to these unprecedented challenges will reshape global trade relationships for years to come.

EMS@C-Level is sponsored by global inspection leaders Koh Young (https://www.kohyoung.com) and Creative Electron (https://creativeelectron.com)

You can see video versions of all of the EMS@C-Level pods on our YouTube playlist.